基于4DVAR和EnKF的遥感信息与作物模型冬小麦估产
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国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD020040103)


Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Based on Assimilated Remote Sensing Date with Crop Growth Model Using 4DVAR and EnKF
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    摘要:

    为了提高遥感信息与作物模型同化的估产精度,以山西省晋南地区的3个县为研究区,采用四维变分(Four-dimensional variational, 4DVAR)和集合卡尔曼滤波(Ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF)两种同化算法将高时空分辨率Sentinel多源数据反演的叶面积指数(Leaf area index, LAI)、土壤含水率(θ)和CERES-Wheat模型进行同化,对比两种算法同化LAI和θ的性能,并进行冬小麦产量估测。结果表明:两种同化算法均能结合遥感观测和作物模型模拟的优势,相比模型模拟值,同化精度均有所提高;4DVAR-LAI和4DVAR-θ的均方根误差 (Root mean square error, RMSE)分别比EnKF-LAI和EnKF-θ低0.1490m2/m2、0.0091cm3/cm3,且根据遥感实际监测值4DVAR-LAI更能精确识别冬小麦的物候期,与实际冬小麦生长发育的物候期更相符,因此在Sentinel多源数据与CERES-Wheat模型同化中,4DVAR算法的性能更好;由4DVAR同化后的LAI和θ双变量建立的估产模型,RMSE和平均相对误差(Mean relative error,MRE)小于CERES-Wheat模型模拟估产的RMSE和MRE,说明估产模型的估产误差小,采用4DVAR算法同化Sentinel多源数据与CERES-Wheat模型有效提高了冬小麦区域估产精度。

    Abstract:

    To improve the precision of crop yield estimation by integrating the remote sensing data into the crop model, two methods were applied, the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), to assimilate the leaf area index (LAI) and the soil moisture (θ) derived from Sentinel multi-source data with the CERES-Wheat model. The two algorithms were assessed on the performance of assimilation of LAI and θ and estimated the yield of winter wheat across three counties located in the south of Shanxi Province in China. It was found that both assimilation algorithms can combine the advantages of remote sensing observations and crop model simulations. Compared with the crop model simulation values, the accuracy of assimilated LAI and θ were improved. Compared with EnKF, the 4DVAR algorithm can reduce the RMSEs of the assimilated LAI and θ by 0.1490m2/m2 and 0.0091cm3/cm3, respectively. And 4DVAR-LAI could accurately identify the phenological period of winter wheat according to the remote sensing observations, which was more consistent with the growth and development of the actual phenological period of winter wheat. Therefore, 4DVAR showed a better performance in the assimilation of Sentinel multi-source data with CERES-Wheat model. The accuracy of the yield estimation model based on assimilated LAI and θ by 4DVAR (RMSE was 449.77kg/hm2, MRE was 7.85%) was higher than the yield accuracy based on simulated values by the CERES-Wheat model (RMSE was 641.55kg/hm2, MRE was 10.23%). The 4DVAR assimilation algorithm effectively improved the yield estimation accuracy of winter wheat at a regional scale.

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刘正春,徐占军,毕如田,王超,贺鹏,杨武德.基于4DVAR和EnKF的遥感信息与作物模型冬小麦估产[J].农业机械学报,2021,52(6):223-231. LIU Zhengchun, XU Zhanjun, BI Rutian, WANG Chao, HE Peng, YANG Wude. Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Based on Assimilated Remote Sensing Date with Crop Growth Model Using 4DVAR and EnKF[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(6):223-231.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-02-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-06-10
  • 出版日期: 2021-06-10