| 燃烧概率模型在林火管理中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘嘉雷,田晓瑞,宗学政.燃烧概率模型在林火管理中的应用[J].世界林业研究,2022,35(2):41-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘嘉雷 田晓瑞 宗学政 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所, 国家林业和草原局森林保护学重点实验室, 北京100091 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金“基于燃烧概率模型的林火管理效益评估”（31770695）； |
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| 摘 要： | 火是多数森林生态系统中一个重要的干扰因素，影响景观结构和生态系统的稳定。利用燃烧概率（BP）模型可以模拟景观尺度上的火发生和蔓延过程，描述一个区域空间上的火发生概率和潜在的火行为特征。该模型已经成为林火管理的重要工具，也可为林火管理的规划和政策制定提供必要的信息。作为森林管理和林火扑救的一个科学工具，BP模型在林火扑救资源配置、管理策略制定、火灾风险评估等方面得到广泛应用。文中综述了BP模型在风险分析、可燃物管理、气候变化影响评估等方面的研究进展。基于BP模型模拟技术解决林火管理中的问题，可为开展有针对性的林火管理措施提供参考依据，通过林火管理降低景观尺度上的火灾风险，提高林火管理效益。
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| 关 键 词： | 林火管理 燃烧概率模型 风险评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-08-03 |
Application of Burn Probability Model in Forest Fire Management |
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| Affiliation: | Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry; Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100091, China |
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| Abstract: | Fire is an important disturbance factor in most forest ecosystems, which affects landscape structure and ecosystem stability. Burn probability (BP) model can accurately predict fire occurrence probability and fire behavior characteristics in a certain space through the simulations of fire eruption and spread on the landscape scale. The model is not only an important tool for forest fire management, but also provides necessary information for fire management planning and policy-making. As a scientific tool for fire fighting and management, the BP model has been widely used in optimal allocation of fire resources, fire management strategies development, and fire risk assessment. This paper summarized the research on the application of BP model to risk analysis, fuel management, and climate change impact assessment. Solving the forest fire management problems based on the BP model and fire simulations could provide reference for targeted forest fire management, and forest management could reduce the fire risk on the landscape scale and improve the forest management efficiency. |
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