| 贸易成本对我国粮食进口需求的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 王瑞峰,李爽.贸易成本对我国粮食进口需求的影响[J].南方农业学报,2017,48(11):2100-2106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王瑞峰 李爽 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北农业大学 经济管理学院,哈尔滨 150030东北石油大学 财务处,黑龙江 大庆 163318东北农业大学 经济管理学院,哈尔滨,150030 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]实证分析贸易成本对我国粮食进口需求函数短期及长期的影响,从贸易成本角度为我国粮食安全、粮食生产及粮食对外贸易等提供理论借鉴.方法]在马歇尔需求函数的基础上加入贸易成本因素,构建我国粮食进口需求函数,并基于1993~2015年粮食进口数据,对传统进口需求函数和加入贸易成本变量的进口需求函数进行实证分析.结果]我国粮食进口需求对收入、相对价格和贸易成本均具有长期和短期协整关系.从长期来看,贸易成本对我国大豆进口需求的影响变化较大,而对小麦、玉米和大米的进口需求影响较小;从短期来看,贸易成本对我国各类粮食进口需求的影响程度较大,尤其是对玉米和大豆的进口需求影响尤为显著.建议]处理好粮食进口与国家粮食安全的关系;降低粮食生产成本,更好地满足国内粮食需求;实施粮食进口多元化策略,分散粮食进口集中度;降低贸易成本,更好地利用国际粮食市场,以满足国内粮食供需缺口.
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食 贸易成本 进口需求 |
Impact of trade cost on grain import demand of China |
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| WANG Rui-feng,LI Shuang.Impact of trade cost on grain import demand of China[J].Journal of Southern Agriculture,2017,48(11):2100-2106. |
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| Authors: | WANG Rui-feng LI Shuang |
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| Abstract: | Objective]Empirical analysis on short-term and long-term effects of trade cost on Chinese grain import demand function was conducted to provide theoretical reference for grain security,grain production and international grain trade of China from the perspective of trade cost.Method]Based on Marshall demand function,demand function of grain import in China was established adding trade cost factor. Based on grain import data of China from 1993 to 2015, empirical analysis was conducted on demand function of traditional import demand function and import demand function adding trade cost variable.Result]Grain import demand of China had long-term and short-term cointegration relations on income,relative price and trade cost. In the long run,the impact of trade costs on soybean import demand of China was great,while the impact of import demand on wheat,maize and rice small. In the short term,the impact of trade costs on various types of grain import demand,especially on corn and soybean import demand was particularly obvious.Sugges-tion]Following suggestions are proposed:coping with the relationship between grain imports and national grain security;reducing the cost of grain production in order to better meet the domestic grain needs; implementing the diversification strategy of grain import to scatter grain import concentration;reducing trade costs to better make use of international grain market and meet the domestic grain supply and demand gap. |
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| Keywords: | grain trade cost import demand |
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