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1.
The 1997-1998 epidemic of classical swine fever in the Netherlands   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  
In 1997, the pig husbandry in the Netherlands was struck by a severe epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF). During this epidemic 429 CSF-infected herds were depopulated and approximately 1300 herds were slaughtered pre-emptively. In addition millions of pigs of herds not CSF-infected were killed for welfare reasons (over crowding or overweight). In this paper, we describe the course of the epidemic and the measures that were taken to control it.The first outbreak was detected on 4 February 1997 in the pig dense south-eastern part of the Netherlands. We estimate that CSF virus (CSFV) had already been present in the country by that time for 5-7 weeks and that the virus had been introduced into approximately 39 herds before the eradication campaign started. This campaign consisted of stamping-out infected herds, movement restrictions and efforts to diagnose infected herds as soon as possible. However, despite these measures the rate at which new outbreaks were detected continued to rise. The epidemic faded out only upon the implementation of additional measures such as rapid pre-emptive slaughter of herds in contact with or located near infected herds, increased hygienic measures, biweekly screening of all herds by veterinary practitioners, and reduction of the transportation movements for welfare reasons. The last infected herd was depopulated on 6 March 1998.  相似文献   

2.
In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter β (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, Rh (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When Rh > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when Rh < 1 an epidemic will fade out.

During the phase before the first outbreak was diagnosed and no specific measures had been implemented, β was estimated at 1.09 and Rh at 6.8. In the subsequent phase infected herds were depopulated, movement restrictions were implemented, infected herds were traced forward and backward and the herds in the protection and surveillance zones were clinically inspected by the veterinary authorities (regional screening). This set of measures significantly reduced β to 0.38. However, Rh was 1.3 and thus still >1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of Rh was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.  相似文献   


3.
The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km2) in the area (HR1000 pigs 1.48) and herd size (HR100 pigs = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.  相似文献   


4.
In this paper we describe a study of the use of the white blood cell count (wbcc) as a parameter for detecting outbreaks of Classical Swine Fever (CSF). Meta-analysis of the results of challenge experiments revealed that oronasal infection of SPF-pigs with the virulent CSF virus (CSFV) strains Brescia or NL9201 resulted in a significant decrease in the average white blood cell count during the first week after inoculation of the virus. Challenge of conventional finishing pigs and sows with the moderately virulent strain Paderborn also resulted in a significant decrease in the average wbcc. However, this decrease was not observed after inoculation of SPF pigs with the mildly virulent CSFV strains Henken, Zoelen, or Bergen. The usefulness of clinical inspection in combination with wbcc to detect CSF outbreaks in the field was examined using the results of 214 EDTA blood specimens collected from 22 infected herds and 7250 EDTA blood specimens collected from 1450 non-infected herds. Half of the infected herds had been infected with the moderately virulent CSFV strain Venhorst (closely related to strain Paderborn) during the 1997-98 epidemic in the Netherlands. The other half had been infected with the moderately virulent CSFV strain Loraine. Using these data as a starting point, 1000 samples of one to ten specimens were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. These simulated samples and the samples of the non-infected herds were analysed by use of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. On the basis of that analysis, the optimal number of animals whose wbcc needed to be determined to detect a CSF outbreak was five. With this number of animals, in conjunction with the threshold of 8000 white blood cells per mm3 (meaning that a herd is designated as CSF suspect if one or more of the five specimens has a white blood cell count of 8000 leukocytes/mm3 or less), the test procedure had a herd sensitivity (HSE) of 94.5% and a herd specificity (HSP) of 97.2%). The HSE is defined as the percentage of samples of infected herds with a positive result of the test procedure; HSP is defined as the percentage of uninfected herds with a negative result of the test procedure. We conclude that the wbcc can help the veterinary practitioner to detect outbreaks of CSF caused by (moderately) virulent CSFV strains. However, for the detection of outbreaks caused by mildly virulent CSFV strains, the contribution of the wbcc is doubtful. Development of additional tools that can improve the clinical diagnosis of the veterinary practitioner remains desirable.  相似文献   

5.
The National Reference Laboratory for classical swine fever (CSF) virus in the Netherlands examined more than two million samples for CSF virus or serum antibody during the CSF epizootic of 1997–1998. The immense amount of samples and the prevalence of border disease (BD) virus and bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) virus infections in Dutch pig herds necessitated the diagnostic efforts of the laboratory to be focused on generating CSF specific test results throughout the eradication campaign.

Detection of 82% of the 429 outbreaks was achieved through the combined use of a direct immunofluorescence and peroxidase assay (FAT/IPA) with samples (tonsils) collected from clinically-suspected pigs. This suggests that in the majority of the outbreaks, the pigs had clinical signs that were recognised by the farmer and/or veterinarians, indicating the presence of CSF virus in a pig herd. A positive diagnosis of 74% of all the tissue samples (tonsils) collected at infected pig holdings was established by FAT. More than 140,000 heparinised blood samples were examined by virus isolation, resulting in the detection of 4.5% of the infected herds. CSF virus was isolated in approximately 29% of all the blood samples collected from pigs at infected or suspected farms.

Several serological surveys — each done within a different framework — led to the detection of 13.5% of the total number of outbreaks. The detection of CSF virus antibody in serum was carried out by semi-automated blocking ELISA. Approximately 28.5% of the sera which reacted in the ELISA were classified as CSF virus-neutralising antibody positive and 26.5% as positive for other pestiviruses following the virus neutralisation test (VNT).

We concluded that two of the CSF laboratory diagnostic methods described were determinative in the eradication campaign: first, the FAT for the screening of diseased pigs; and second, the ELISA and VNT when millions of predominantly healthy pigs needed to be screened for the presence of CSF serum antibody. Decision-making on the basis of results generated by either method can, however, be seriously hindered when samples are examined from pig herds with a high prevalence of non-CSF pestiviruses.  相似文献   


6.
In the course of the 1997-1998 CSF epidemic in the Netherlands, two semen collection centres (SCC) became infected. As an eradication strategy for an acute crisis situation, it was concluded that all semen of the boars at the SCCs collected and distributed in the risk period of 28 January to 7 March 1997 was potentially contaminated (suspect semen). As a consequence, a total of 1,680 pig herds, mainly located in the southern part of the Netherlands, were officially declared CSF suspect. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether infection of farms through contaminated semen played a significant role in the CSF epidemic. A total of 123 CSFV infected herds were identified, that had received suspect semen from one or both of the infected SCCs. In 87 out of these 123 infected herds, infection by way of artificial insemination (AI) could be excluded either according to the insemination information or the infection pattern observed. In only 21 herds, infection by way of AI was regarded as possible according to the insemination information and infection pattern. Owing to missing information, no conclusion could be drawn about the possibility of infection of 15 farms by way of AI. Thus, we conclude that at most 36 farms may have been infected through AI during the CSF epidemic in the Netherlands.  相似文献   

7.
Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks may result in huge economic losses to countries with densely populated pig areas (DPLAs). The EU minimum control measures require depopulation of infected farms, movement restrictions, zoning and surveillance (EU Minimum strategy). Emergency vaccination is authorised for DPLAs although the EU Minimum strategy plus culling in a 1-km ring around infected premises is preferred. Nonetheless, vaccination in a 2-km ring has been found equally effective as 1-km ring culling using stochastic modelling. Alternatives control measures (e.g. antiviral agents, in particular small molecule inhibitors of the CSFV replication) are being explored. Hence, the present study was set up to simulate inter-herd CSFV spread when antiviral molecules are supplemented to pig feed in a 1-km ring around infected farms. The effectiveness of the antiviral strategy for containing CSF outbreaks was compared to six other control scenarios including the EU Minimum strategy, the EU preferred policy for DPLAs and the use of 2-km ring vaccination. The InterSpread Plus model was adapted to the 2006 Belgian pig population and outbreak simulations were performed with a fast spreading CSFV strain entering a DPLA in Belgium. Four out of the seven control strategies resulted in outbreaks that were controlled by the end of the simulation period (i.e. 365 days). The distributions of the number of infected herds and the duration of the predicted outbreaks for these four control strategies were not different. This is the first report investigating CSF outbreak containment using antiviral molecules. Although antiviral supplementation was not found to perform any better than some other conventional strategies, such as pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination, it might be worthwhile considering it further as additional tool in a response to CSF outbreaks.  相似文献   

8.
Summary

In the course of the 1997–1998 CSF epidemic in the Netherlands, two semen collection centres (SCC) became infected. As an eradication strategy for an acute crisis situation, it was concluded that all semen of the boars at the SCCs collected and distributed in the risk period of 28 January to 7 March 1997 was potentially contaminated (suspect semen). As a consequence, a total of 1680 pig herds, mainly located in the southern part of the Netherlands, were officially declared CSF suspect. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether infection of farms through contaminated semen played a significant role in the CSF epidemic. A total of 123 CSFV infected herds were identified, that had received suspect semen from one or both of the infected SCCs. In 87 out of these 123 infected herds, infection by way of artificial insemination (AI) could be excluded either according to the insemination information or the infection pattern observed. In only 21 herds, infection by way of AI was regarded as possible according to the insemination information and infection pattern. Owing to missing information, no conclusion could be drawn about the possibility of infection of 15 farms by way of AI. Thus, we conclude that at most 36 farms may have been infected through AI during the CSF epidemic in the Netherlands.  相似文献   

9.
Data of the 1997–1998 epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF) in The Netherlands were analysed in survival analysis to identify risk factors that were associated with the rate of neighbourhood infections. The study population consisted of herds within 1000 m of exclusively one previously infected herd. Dates of virus introduction into herds were drawn randomly from estimated probability distributions per herd of possible weeks of virus introduction. (To confirm the insensitivity of the results for this random data-selection procedure, the procedure was repeated 9 times (resulting in 10 different datasets).) The dataset had 906 non-infected and 59 infected neighbour herds, which were distributed over 215 different neighbourhoods. Neighbour herds that never became infected were right-censored at the last date of the infectious period of the infected source herd. Neighbour herds that became empty within the infectious period or within the following 21 days due to preventive depopulation or due to the implemented buying-out programme were right-censored 21 days before the moment of becoming empty. This was done as a correction for the time a herd could be infected without being noticed as such.

The median time to identified infection of neighbour herds was 2 weeks, whereas the median time to right censoring of non-infected neighbour herds was 3 weeks. The risk factors, radial distance ≤500 m, cattle present on source herd and increasing herd size of the neighbour herd were associated multivariably with the hazard for neighbour herds to become infected. We did not find an association between time down wind and infection risk for neighbour herds. Radial dispersion of CSFV seemed more important in neighbourhood infections than dispersion along the road on which the infected source herd is situated. The results of this study support the strategy of preventive depopulation in the neighbourhood of an infected herd. Recommendations are presented to adapt the applied control strategy for neighbourhood infections.  相似文献   


10.
An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Great Britain was reported on 21 February 2001, followed by an outbreak of FMD in The Netherlands a month later. This Dutch index outbreak occurred on a mixed, veal-calf/dairy-goat farm in Oene, in the central part of The Netherlands. The most-likely route of infection was the import of Irish veal-calves to this Dutch herd via an FMD-contaminated staging point in France. With hindsight, more herds seemed to be infected by the time the index outbreak was confirmed. The regular EU control measures were implemented, in combination with pre-emptive culling of herds within 1km of each outbreak. Nevertheless, more outbreaks of FMD occurred. Most of the virus infections on those farms were "neighborhood infections". Because the situation seemed out of control locally and the destruction capacity became insufficient, it was decided to implement an emergency vaccination strategy for all biungulates in a large area around Oene to stop further spread of the virus. All susceptible animals on approximately 1800 farms in this area were vaccinated. All farms subsequently were depopulated, starting from 2 weeks after vaccination. In total, 26 outbreaks were detected (the last outbreak on 22 April 2001). In total, approximately 260,000 animals were killed.  相似文献   

11.
The 1997/1998 epizootic of classical swine fever (CSF) in an area with high pig density in the Netherlands is described. The epizootic, which numbered 429 outbreaks, was controlled and finally eradicated after 14 months without resorting to vaccination. A further almost 1300 herds (1.1 million pigs) at close proximity of confirmed outbreaks were preventively culled because of the risk of having been infected. The pros and cons of this so-called "pre-emptive slaughter" are discussed.The long-lasting movement restrictions caused severe overcrowding especially in breeding farms. For reasons of animal welfare 6.5 million weaners and adult pigs had to be killed and destroyed, whereas another 2.6 million 3-17 days old piglets were euthanised to save long-term destruction capacity. The presumed routes of infection and factors influencing the epizootic are explained, as well as the various methods to bring the epizootic to a halt. The strategy for detecting outbreaks in an early stage, and the type of samples to be collected for laboratory diagnosis are emphasised from the general point of application. The direct costs of the epizootic, losses of exports not included, are estimated at US$ 2 billion.  相似文献   

12.
Denmark has no free-range wild-boar population. However, Danish wildlife organizations have suggested that wild boar should be reintroduced into the wild to broaden national biodiversity. Danish pig farmers fear that this would lead to a higher risk of introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV), which could have enormous consequences in terms of loss of pork exports. We conducted a risk assessment to address the additional risk of introducing and spreading CSFV due to the reintroduction of wild boar. In this paper, we present the part of the risk assessment that deals with the spread of CSFV between the hypothetical wild-boar population and the domestic population. Furthermore, the economic impact is assessed taking the perspective of the Danish national budget and the Danish pig industry. We used InterSpreadPlus to model the differential classical swine fever (CSF) risk due to wild boar. Nine scenarios were run to elucidate the effect of: (a) presence of wild boar (yes/no), (b) locations for the index case (domestic pig herd/wild-boar group), (c) type of control strategy for wild boar (hunting/vaccination) and (d) presence of free-range domestic pigs. The presence of free-range wild boar was simulated in two large forests using data from wildlife studies and Danish habitat data. For each scenario, we estimated (1) the control costs borne by the veterinary authorities, (2) the control-related costs to farmers and (3) the loss of exports associated with an epidemic. Our simulations predict that CSFV will be transmitted from the domestic pig population to wild boar if the infected domestic pig herd is located close to an area with wild boar (<5 km). If an outbreak begins in the wild-boar population, the epidemic will last longer and will occasionally lead to several epidemics because of periodic transfer of virus from groups of infected wild boar to domestic pig herds. The size and duration of the epidemic will be reduced if there are no free-range domestic pig herds in the area with CSF-infected wild boar. The economic calculations showed that the total national costs for Denmark (i.e. the direct costs to the national budget and the costs to the pig industry) related to an outbreak of CSF in Denmark will be highly driven by the reactions of the export markets and in particular of the non-EU markets. Unfortunately, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty surrounding this issue. If hunting is used as a control measure, the average expenses related to a CSF outbreak will be 40% higher if wild boar are present compared with not present. However, a vaccination strategy for wild boar will double the total costs compared with a hunting strategy.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, we describe the transmission of Classical Swine Fever virus (CSF virus) within herds during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. In seven herds where the infection started among individually housed breeding stock, all breeding pigs had been tested for antibodies to CSF virus shortly before depopulation. Based upon these data, the transmission of CSF virus between pigs was described as exponential growth in time with a parameter r, that was estimated at 0.108 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.060–0.156). The accompanying per-generation transmission (expressed as the basic reproduction ratio, R0) was estimated at 2.9. Based upon this characterisation, a calculation method was derived with which serological findings at depopulation can be used to calculate the period in which the virus was with a certain probability introduced into that breeding stock. This model was used to estimate the period when the virus had been introduced into 34 herds where the infection started in the breeding section. Of these herds, only a single contact with a herd previously infected had been traced. However, in contrast with the seven previously mentioned herds, only a sample of the breeding pigs had been tested before depopulation (as was the common procedure during the epidemic). The observed number of days between the single contact with an infected herd and the day of sampling of these 34 herds fitted well in the model. Thus, we concluded that the model and transmission parameter was in agreement with the transmission between breeding pigs in these herds.

Because of the limited sample size and because it was usually unknown in which specific pen the infection started, we were unable to estimate transmission parameters for weaned piglets and finishing pigs from the data collected during the epidemic. However, from the results of controlled experiments in which R0 was estimated as 81 between weaned piglets and 14 between heavy finishing pigs (Laevens et al., 1998a. Vet. Quart. 20, 41–45; Laevens et al., 1999. Ph.D. Thesis), we constructed a simple model to describe the transmission of CSF virus in compartments (rooms) housing finishing pigs and weaned piglets. From the number of pens per compartment, the number of pigs per pen, the numbers of pigs tested for antibodies to CSF virus and the distribution of the seropositive pigs in the compartment, this model gives again a period in which the virus most probably entered the herd. Using the findings in 41 herds where the infection started in the section of the finishers or weaned piglets of the age of 8 weeks or older, and of which only a single contact with a herd previously infected was known, there was no reason to reject the model. Thus, we concluded that the transmission between weaned piglets and finishing pigs during the epidemic was not significantly different from the transmission observed in the experiments.  相似文献   


14.
AIMS: To determine the frequency with which porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus (PRRSv) would become established in a non-commercial pig herd in New Zealand due to illegal feeding of uncooked food waste containing virus-contaminated pigmeat. To determine the likelihood of a single incursion resulting in a multi-farm outbreak of the disease, and describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of such an outbreak. METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to determine the expected annual frequency of PRRSv infection being initiated in a non-commercial pig herd as a result of inadvertent feeding of pigmeat imported from countries endemically infected with the disease. Once the likelihood of PRRSv becoming established in a single pig herd was determined, stochastic spatially explicit infectious disease modelling software was utilised to model the temporal and spatial characteristics of the resulting epidemic. RESULTS: Assuming the proportion of imported pigmeat remained at current levels, consumption patterns of pigmeat in households in New Zealand remained steady, and limited compliance with recently reintroduced regulations to prevent feeding of uncooked food waste, at least 4.3 pig herds per year were predicted to become infected with PRRSv. Simulation modelling of PRRSv epidemics related to initial infection of a non-commercial farm produced an estimate that 36% of these incursions would spread from the initial herd, and that these outbreaks would involve 93 herds on average in the first year. By increasing the estimated persistence of PRRSv infection in small herds, an average of 205 herds became infected in the first year. CONCLUSIONS: Given a mean of 4.3 infected premises per year and a 36% probability of infection spreading beyond the initial infected herd, there was a 95% likelihood of a multi-farm PRRS outbreak occurring within 3 years. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Introduction of PRRSv through importation of virus-contaminated pigmeat presents a high risk for establishment of the disease in the pig industry in New Zealand.  相似文献   

15.
Early detection of the introduction of an infectious livestock disease is of great importance to limit the potential extent of an outbreak. Classical Swine Fever (CSF) often causes non-specific clinical signs, which can take considerable time to be detected. Currently, the disease can be detected by three main routes, that are all triggered by clinical signs. To improve the early detection of CSF an additional program, based on mortality data, aims to routinely perform PCR tests on ear notch samples from herds with a high(er) mortality. To assess the effectiveness of this new early detection system, we have developed a stochastic model that describes the virus transmission within a pig herd, the development of disease in infected animals and the different early detection programs. As virus transmission and mortality (by CSF and by other causes) are different for finishing pigs, piglets and sows, a distinction is made between these pig categories. The model is applied to an extensive database that contains all unique pig herds in The Netherlands, their herd sizes and their mortality reports over the CSF-free period 2001-2005. Results from the simulations suggest that the new early detection system is not effective in piglet sections, due to the high mortality from non-CSF causes, nor in sow sections, due to the low CSF-mortality. In finishing herds, the model predicts that the new early detection system can improve the detection time by two days, from 38 (27-53) days to 36 (24-51) days after virus introduction, when assuming a moderately virulent virus strain causing a 50% CSF mortality. For this result up to 5 ear notch samples per herd from 8 (0-13) finishing herds must be tested every workday. Detecting a source herd two days earlier could considerably reduce the number of initially infected herds. However, considering the variation in outcome and the uncertainty in some model assumptions, this two-day gain in detection time is too small to demonstrate a substantial effect of the new early detection system based on mortality data. But when the alertness of herd-owners and veterinarians diminishes during long CSF-free periods, the new early detection system might gain in effectiveness.  相似文献   

16.
Sixteen classical swine fever virus (CSFV) field isolates from outbreaks of classical swine fever from the period between February 1997 and March 1998 in the Netherlands were sequence analysed. Parts of the 5' noncoding region (5'NCR) and the E1/E2 gene were sequenced after RT-PCR. The obtained sequences were compared with isolates of recent outbreaks in Europe and those of former outbreaks in the Netherlands. Sequence alignment of the 5'NCR region (321 bp) revealed that the isolates of the Dutch outbreak of 1997-1998 were closely linked to an isolate of the CSF outbreak that started in Paderborn, Germany in 1996. A relatively large fragment of the E1/E2 gene of 850 bp, including the antigenic region of E2, which is one of the most variable regions of the CSFV genome, was sequenced to determine whether this region can be used for epidemiology within an epizootic. Epidemiological tracing of transmission of virus was followed, starting from the first isolate and a line of five generations of viruses was analysed. Besides this, new isolates which could not be epidemiologically linked to preceding ones were also characterised. Differences between the isolates of the Dutch outbreak were minor both for the linked as well as for the non-linked isolates, indicating that all isolates have a common origin. Furthermore, our data show for the first time the genetic stability of CSFV even in the highly variable antigenic region of the E2 gene during a major epidemic lasting more than 1 year.  相似文献   

17.
Knowledge of the sensitivity of diagnostic tests for infectious diseases under field conditions can be used to design a surveillance program that increases the effectiveness of the control policy. In this study, the sensitivity of tests for the detection of classical swine fever (CSF) virus (CSFV) under field conditions was estimated without knowledge of the true disease status of the animals tested. During the CSF epidemic of 1997-1998 in The Netherlands, tonsil samples from pigs of CSF suspect farms were collected for laboratory diagnosis of CSE These specimens were tested in a fluorescence antibody test (FAT1) for the presence of CSFV antigen. When at least 1 specimen in a particular sample series from a farm was positive, this farm was declared CSFV infected. Specimens of that series, either FAT1 negative (98) or FAT1 positive (127), were subsequently tested again (FAT2). After that, a suspension was made of the remaining tissue, and this suspension was evaluated with a virus isolation test. In total, 225 tonsil specimens were examined. A statistical model was formulated, and the sensitivity of the 3 tests and the prevalence of positive specimens in the sample were estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. The sensitivity of the FAT1, the test that was used for confirmation of CSFV infection in a pig herd, was approximately 78% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 62-92%). The effectiveness of the selection process of animals on the farm by the veterinarian was estimated to be 77% (64-87%). The sensitivity of the combination of FAT1 and FAT2 (60%) indicates that at least 5 animals should be selected on a CSF-suspect farm to gain a detection probability for CSFV of 99%.  相似文献   

18.
In 2006, total Danish pork exports were valued at €3.8 billion, corresponding to approximately 5% of the total Danish exports, and an outbreak of a notifiable disease would have dramatic consequences for the agricultural sector in Denmark. Several outbreaks of classical swine fever (CSF) have occurred in Europe within the last decade, and different control strategies have been suggested. The objective of this study was to simulate the epidemiological and economic consequences of such control strategies in a CSF epidemic under Danish conditions with respect to herd demographics and geography and to investigate the effect of extra biosecurity measures on farms. We used InterSpread Plus to model the effect of nine different control strategies: the minimum measures required by the EU plus depopulation of contact herds (EUplus), extra depopulation of neighbouring herds, extra surveillance within the protection and surveillance zones, extra biosecurity in SPF herds—or in all herds, vaccination of all pigs in the 1 or 2 km zones using live vaccine as a protective measure (vaccination-to-kill), vaccination of all weaners and finishers in the 1 or 2 km zones using an E2 marker vaccine as a suppressive measure (vaccination-to-live). Each epidemic was simulated to start in four different index herds: production herds located in low, medium and high pig density areas, respectively; and a nucleus herd in an area of high pig density. For each control strategy and index case, we calculated the size and duration of the epidemic, the number of depopulated and/or vaccinated herds and animals, the control costs borne by the public and the pig industry, respectively, as well as the loss of exports associated with the epidemic.The simulations showed that the EUplus strategy is the most effective of the evaluated strategies with respect to limiting the size, duration and cost of the epidemic, regardless of the index case. However, regarding the number of slaughtered animals, the vaccination-to-live strategies appeared to be more effective.Epidemics become larger and last longer if the index case is a nucleus herd. This implies that biosecurity in nucleus herds is extremely important to avoid transmission of CSF to these herds.Simulations showed that a Danish CSF epidemic will be moderate in most cases and will include fewer than 10 cases and last less than 2 weeks on average. However, for some iterations, long-lasting and large epidemics were observed. Irrespective of the size and duration, an epidemic is expected to be very costly due to the export losses.  相似文献   

19.
The classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in the Netherlands in 1997-1998 lasted 14 months, during which 429 infected and 1300 at risk herds were culled, at an estimated economical cost of 2 billion US dollars. Despite the overwhelming scale of the epizootic, the CSF virus (CSFV) strain causing the outbreak has remained largely uncharacterized. The Dutch epizootic is epidemiologically linked to a small CSF outbreak in 1997, in Paderborn in Germany. E2 and partial 5' NTR sequencing has shown that the index Paderborn isolate, and several Dutch isolates taken during the 1997-1998 epizootic, are virtually identical, confirming that the Paderborn isolate triggered the Dutch outbreak, and furthermore showing that this single isolate was stable throughout the whole Dutch outbreak (the above reviewed in [C. Terpstra, A. J. de Smit, Veterinary Microbiol. 77 (2000) 3-15]). We determined the nucleotide sequence of the 5' NTR (by 5' RACE) and the complete open reading frame of the Paderborn isolate (GenBank AY072924). Our sequence was identical to previously published partial 5'NTR and E2 sequences for the index Paderborn 1997 and Dutch 1997 (Venhorst) isolates, confirming the identity of the virus we sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis based on the complete open reading frame showed that Paderborn is genetically very different from common European laboratory reference strains. Neutralization studies showed that Paderborn is also antigenically very different from common laboratory strains such as Alfort 187. Paderborn is the only recent European CSFV field isolate for which a complete sequence is available, and given Paderborns genetic and antigenic uniqueness, the Paderborn sequence may have practical use for diagnostic and vaccine antigen development.  相似文献   

20.
A matched case-control study of 135 infected and 99 uninfected pig herds from the central area of the 1997 to 1998 epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF) in The Netherlands was undertaken to identify factors associated with the introduction of the virus. The herds were matched on the basis of herd type and the shortest geographical distance between pairs of herds. Data on management, hygienic measures, experiences during the depopulation of an infected nearest neighbour, and the frequency of contact with professionals and other agencies were collected by means of a questionnaire taken by personal interview. There were no significant differences between the infected and uninfected herds in the median total number of contacts per year with professionals and other agencies either with or without contact with the pigs. On the basis of a multivariable analysis, five variables were found to be significantly associated with an increased risk of infection: (1) the presence of commercial poultry on the premises; (2) visitors entering the pig units without wearing an overcoat or overalls and boots supplied by the farm; (3) the driver of the lorry transporting pigs for the Pig Welfare Disposal Scheme (PWDS) using his own boots instead of boots supplied by the farm; (4) herds of moderate size (500 to 1,000 animals) and very large herds (>7,000 animals) were at greater risk than small herds (<500 animals); and (5) an aerosol, produced during high-pressure cleaning of the electrocution equipment used to kill the pigs on a neighbouring infected herd less than 250 m away was carried by the wind on to the premises. Two variables were significantly associated with a decreased risk of CSFV-infection: (1) more than 30 years of experience in pig farming; and (2) additional cleaning of the lorries used to transport pigs for the PWDS before they were allowed on to the premises. In the opinion of the cooperating farmers, airborne transmission of the virus and its transmission during the depopulation of an infected neighbour were among the most important routes of infection.  相似文献   

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