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1.
利用海冰密集度资料和海冰范围指数,分析了3月北半球海冰在1979-1995年和1996-2014年2个时间段内的变化趋势以及趋势差异的区域特征.结果表明:北半球3月总海冰范围以稳定速率减少,速率无明显加速.而各个分海域的海冰变化表现出一定的区域差异.其中,巴伦支海海冰在2个时期内以稳定的速率减少;白令海海冰不减反增;鄂霍次克海海冰缩减速度在后期减小;圣劳伦斯湾的海冰范围在90年代中期以前显著增大,后期缓慢缩减. 3月海冰趋势变化的空间特征与同期表面气温和表面风场的趋势变化相一致. 相似文献
2.
Weber ME Clark PU Ricken W Mitrovica JX Hostetler SW Kuhn G 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2011,334(6060):1265-1269
The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets. 相似文献
3.
During the last interglacial, Antarctic climate changed before that of the Northern Hemisphere. Large local changes in precession forcing could have produced this pattern if there were a rectified response in sea ice cover. Results from a coupled sea ice-ocean general circulation model supported this hypothesis when it was tested for three intervals around the last interglacial. Such a mechanism may play an important role in contributing to phase offsets between Northern and Southern Hemisphere climate change for other time intervals. 相似文献
4.
Evidence from the Irish Sea basin supports the existence of an abrupt rise in sea level (meltwater pulse) at 19,000 years before the present (B.P.). Climate records indicate a large reduction in the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and attendant cooling of the North Atlantic at this time, indicating a source of the meltwater pulse from one or more Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Warming of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the Southern Hemisphere also began at 19,000 years B.P. These responses identify mechanisms responsible for the propagation of deglacial climate signals to the Southern Hemisphere and tropics while maintaining a cold climate in the Northern Hemisphere. 相似文献
5.
A definitive long-term decrease in the extent of antarctic sea ice is not detectable from 9 years (1973 to 1981) of year-round satellite observations and limited prior data. Regional interannual variability is large, with sea ice decreasing in some regions while increasing in others. A significant decrease in overall ice extent during the mid-1970's, previously suggested to reflect warming induced by carbon dioxide, has not been maintained. In particular, the extent of ice in the Weddell Sea region has rebounded after a large decrease concurrent with a major oceanographic anomaly, the Weddell polynya. Over the 9 years, the trends are nearly the same in all seasons, but for periods of 3 to 5 years, greater winter ice maxima are associated with lesser summer ice minima. The decrease of the mid-1970's was preceded by an increase in ice extent from 1966 to 1972, further indicating the presence of cyclical components of variation that obscure any long-term trends that might be caused by a warming induced by carbon dioxide. 相似文献
6.
Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
Crowley TJ 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2000,289(5477):270-277
Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the approximately 1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial. 相似文献
7.
A tropical Pacific climate state resembling that of a permanent El Ni?o is hypothesized to have ended as a result of a reorganization of the ocean heat budget approximately 3 million years ago, a time when large ice sheets appeared in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. We report a high-resolution alkenone reconstruction of conditions in the heart of the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) cold tongue that reflects the combined influences of changes in the equatorial thermocline, the properties of the thermocline's source waters, atmospheric greenhouse gas content, and orbital variations on sea surface temperature (SST) and biological productivity over the past 5 million years. Our data indicate that the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation approximately 3 million years ago did not interrupt an almost monotonic cooling of the EEP during the Plio-Pleistocene. SST and productivity in the eastern tropical Pacific varied in phase with global ice volume changes at a dominant 41,000-year (obliquity) frequency throughout this time. Changes in the Southern Hemisphere most likely modulated most of the changes observed. 相似文献
8.
Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea-ice cover 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
Linear trends in arctic sea-ice extent over the period 1979 to 2006 are negative in every month. This ice loss is best viewed as a combination of strong natural variability in the coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere system and a growing radiative forcing associated with rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the latter supported by evidence of qualitative consistency between observed trends and those simulated by climate models over the same period. Although the large scatter between individual model simulations leads to much uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean might be realized, this transition to a new arctic state may be rapid once the ice thins to a more vulnerable state. Loss of the ice cover is expected to affect the Arctic's freshwater system and surface energy budget and could be manifested in middle latitudes as altered patterns of atmospheric circulation and precipitation. 相似文献
9.
During the last interglacial, sea level was as high as present, 4000 to 6000 years before peak Northern Hemisphere insolation receipt 126,000 years ago. The sea-level results are shown to be consistent with climate models, which simulate a 3 degrees to 4 degrees C July temperature increase from 140,000 to 130,000 years ago in high latitudes, with all Northern Hemisphere land areas being warmer than present by 130,000 years ago. The early warming occurs because obliquity peaked earlier than precession and because precession values were greater than present before peak precessional forcing occurred. These results indicate that a fuller understanding of the Milankovitch-climate connection requires consideration of fields other than just insolation forcing at 65 degrees N. 相似文献
10.
Tierney JE Russell JM Huang Y Damsté JS Hopmans EC Cohen AS 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2008,322(5899):252-255
The processes that control climate in the tropics are poorly understood. We applied compound-specific hydrogen isotopes (deltaD) and the TEX(86) (tetraether index of 86 carbon atoms) temperature proxy to sediment cores from Lake Tanganyika to independently reconstruct precipitation and temperature variations during the past 60,000 years. Tanganyika temperatures follow Northern Hemisphere insolation and indicate that warming in tropical southeast Africa during the last glacial termination began to increase approximately 3000 years before atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. deltaD data show that this region experienced abrupt changes in hydrology coeval with orbital and millennial-scale events recorded in Northern Hemisphere monsoonal climate records. This implies that precipitation in tropical southeast Africa is more strongly controlled by changes in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and the winter Indian monsoon than by migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. 相似文献
11.
Schneider SH 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》1994,263(5145):341-347
Projected changes in the Earth's climate can be driven from a combined set of forcing factors consisting of regionally heterogeneous anthropogenic and natural aerosols and land use changes, as well as global-scale influences from solar variability and transient increases in human-produced greenhouse gases. Thus, validation of climate model projections that are driven only by increases in greenhouse gases can be inconsistent when one attempts the validation by looking for a regional or time-evolving "fingerprint" of such projected changes in real climatic data. Until climate models are driven by time-evolving, combined, multiple, and heterogeneous forcing factors, the best global climatic change "fingerprint" will probably remain a many-decades average of hemi-spheric- to global-scale trends in surface air temperatures. Century-long global warming (or cooling) trends of 0.5 degrees C appear to have occurred infrequently over the past several thousand years-perhaps only once or twice a millennium, as proxy records suggest. This implies an 80 to 90 percent heuristic likelihood that the 20th-century 0.5 +/- 0.2 degrees C warming trend is not a wholly natural climatic fluctuation. 相似文献
12.
Analyses of the mean monthly global distributions of total ozone for the 13-year period from 1957 through 1970 reveal an upward trend of about 7.5 percent per decade in the Northern Hemisphere and about 2.5 percent per decade in the Southern Hemisphere. The increase seems to have started about March 1961 in the Northern Hemisphere and about September 1961 in the Southern Hemisphere. The cause of these trends is at present unknown. 相似文献
13.
Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperatures 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Analysis of satellite-derived snow cover, radiative balance, and surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere extratropical land shows that the retreat of the Northern Hemisphere's extent of spring snow cover over the past 20 years parallels a change in the influence of snow cover on the radiative balance and an observed increase of spring temperatures over the same area. These results help explain why the long-term (20th century) increase in surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere land has been greater in spring than in any other season relative to the interannual variability. 相似文献
14.
The influence of vegetation-atmosphere-ocean interaction on climate during the mid-holocene 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A Ganopolski C Kubatzki M Claussen V Brovkin V Petoukhov 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》1998,280(5371):1916-1919
Simulations with a synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model show that changes in vegetation cover during the mid-Holocene, some 6000 years ago, modify and amplify the climate system response to an enhanced seasonal cycle of solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere both directly (primarily through the changes in surface albedo) and indirectly (through changes in oceanic temperature, sea-ice cover, and oceanic circulation). The model results indicate strong synergistic effects of changes in vegetation cover, ocean temperature, and sea ice at boreal latitudes, but in the subtropics, the atmosphere-vegetation feedback is most important. Moreover, a reduction of the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean leads to a warming of the Southern Hemisphere. 相似文献
15.
Karoly DJ Braganza K Stott PA Arblaster JM Meehl GA Broccoli AJ Dixon KW 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2003,302(5648):1200-1203
Several indices of large-scale patterns of surface temperature variation were used to investigate climate change in North America over the 20th century. The observed variability of these indices was simulated well by a number of climate models. Comparison of index trends in observations and model simulations shows that North American temperature changes from 1950 to 1999 were unlikely to be due to natural climate variation alone. Observed trends over this period are consistent with simulations that include anthropogenic forcing from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. However, most of the observed warming from 1900 to 1949 was likely due to natural climate variation. 相似文献
16.
The Phanerozoic record of global sea-level change 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Miller KG Kominz MA Browning JV Wright JD Mountain GS Katz ME Sugarman PJ Cramer BS Christie-Blick N Pekar SF 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2005,310(5752):1293-1298
We review Phanerozoic sea-level changes [543 million years ago (Ma) to the present] on various time scales and present a new sea-level record for the past 100 million years (My). Long-term sea level peaked at 100 +/- 50 meters during the Cretaceous, implying that ocean-crust production rates were much lower than previously inferred. Sea level mirrors oxygen isotope variations, reflecting ice-volume change on the 10(4)- to 10(6)-year scale, but a link between oxygen isotope and sea level on the 10(7)-year scale must be due to temperature changes that we attribute to tectonically controlled carbon dioxide variations. Sea-level change has influenced phytoplankton evolution, ocean chemistry, and the loci of carbonate, organic carbon, and siliciclastic sediment burial. Over the past 100 My, sea-level changes reflect global climate evolution from a time of ephemeral Antarctic ice sheets (100 to 33 Ma), through a time of large ice sheets primarily in Antarctica (33 to 2.5 Ma), to a world with large Antarctic and large, variable Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (2.5 Ma to the present). 相似文献
17.
Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Preserving multicentennial climate variability in long tree-ring records is critically important for reconstructing the full range of temperature variability over the past 1000 years. This allows the putative "Medieval Warm Period" (MWP) to be described and to be compared with 20th-century warming in modeling and attribution studies. We demonstrate that carefully selected tree-ring chronologies from 14 sites in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics can preserve such coherent large-scale, multicentennial temperature trends if proper methods of analysis are used. In addition, we show that the average of these chronologies supports the large-scale occurrence of the MWP over the NH extratropics. 相似文献
18.
Summer ice and carbon dioxide 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The extent of Antarctic pack ice in the summer, as charted from satellite imagery, decreased by 2.5 million square kilometers between 1973 and 1980. The U.S. Navy and Russian atlases and whaling and research ship reports from the 1930's indicate that summer ice conditions earlier in this century were heavier than the current average. Surface air temperatures along the seasonally shifting belt of melting snow between 55 degrees and 80 degrees N during spring and summer were higher in 1974 to 1978 than in 1934 to 1938. The observed departures in the two hemispheres qualitatively agree with the predicted impact of an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, since it is not known to, what extent the changes in snow and ice cover and in temperature can be explained by the natural variability of the climate system or by other processes unrelated to carbon dioxide, a cause-and-effect relation cannot yet be established. 相似文献
19.
An Z Clemens SC Shen J Qiang X Jin Z Sun Y Prell WL Luo J Wang S Xu H Cai Y Zhou W Liu X Liu W Shi Z Yan L Xiao X Chang H Wu F Ai L Lu F 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2011,333(6043):719-723
The modern Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is characterized by exceptionally strong interhemispheric transport, indicating the importance of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere processes driving monsoon variability. Here, we present a high-resolution continental record from southwestern China that demonstrates the importance of interhemispheric forcing in driving ISM variability at the glacial-interglacial time scale as well. Interglacial ISM maxima are dominated by an enhanced Indian low associated with global ice volume minima. In contrast, the glacial ISM reaches a minimum, and actually begins to increase, before global ice volume reaches a maximum. We attribute this early strengthening to an increased cross-equatorial pressure gradient derived from Southern Hemisphere high-latitude cooling. This mechanism explains much of the nonorbital scale variance in the Pleistocene ISM record. 相似文献
20.
Climate Change During the Last Deglaciation in Antarctica 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
PA Mayewski MS Twickler SI Whitlow LD Meeker Q Yang J Thomas K Kreutz PM Grootes DL Morse EJ Steig ED Waddington ES Saltzman P Whung KC Taylor 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》1996,272(5268):1636-1638
Greenland ice core records provide clear evidence of rapid changes in climate in a variety of climate indicators. In this work, rapid climate change events in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are compared on the basis of an examination of changes in atmospheric circulation developed from two ice cores. High-resolution glaciochemical series, covering the period 10,000 to 16,000 years ago, from a central Greenland ice core and a new site in east Antarctica display similar variability. These findings suggest that rapid climate change events occur more frequently in Antarctica than previously demonstrated. 相似文献