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近年来,菠萝价格波动异常频繁,对消费者和生产者造成很大的影响。本文运用 2011年8月至2015年9月北京丰台区新发地农产品批发市场菠萝批发价格数据作为研究对象,剔除通货膨胀对菠萝价格的影响,分析菠萝价格波动主要特征;运用CensusX12季节调整模型和 HP 滤波分解模型将2011年8月～2015年9月的菠萝价格分离出趋势和循环序列,据此考察菠萝价格长期波动的趋势,并对短期波动的周期进行划分,以此剖析菠萝价格波动存在的内在规律。研究发现：菠萝的批发价格属于一种高峰型的波动并具有稳步上涨的长期趋势,但扩张能力正在逐渐下降;菠萝的批发价格很不稳定,变动的幅度很大,波动周期短,市场稳定性差、风险高容易受到其他因素的影响。 相似文献
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对2002年7月―2014年5月中国棉花价格波动特征进行研究,表明棉花价格长期波动周期为7年。利用ARCH族模型分析表明中国棉花价格异方差效应不显著、波动具有显著的集簇性、非对称性,棉花市场没有高风险高回报的特征。引起棉花波动的原因为生产成本、天气、政策、进口、库存等,其中2014年实施的目标价格补贴政策是引起当下及后期棉花价格波动的主要原因且有拉低我国棉价回归市场的趋势。 相似文献
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吉林省玉米价格波动及其影响因素分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
吉林省自2008年实施玉米临时收储政策,导致玉米市场出现国内外玉米价格倒挂、玉米加工企业成本骤增等问题。利用波动理论对1981~2014年吉林省玉米价格波动进行分析,结果表明,吉林省玉米价格波动相对较频繁,短周期波动明显,存在严重恶性波动。进一步分析影响吉林省玉米价格波动因素,国家政策对吉林省玉米价格影响最大,逐年上升的"托市价格"导致玉米供给水平对玉米价格的传导为负向,玉米生产成本、国际玉米市场和玉米需求情况对玉米价格产生正向影响。为推动玉米临时收储价格改革,稳定玉米市场价格,提出建立玉米目标价格补贴制度、完善玉米市场监测预警机制、降低玉米生产成本等对策建议。 相似文献
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目前，随着全球经济发展以及人民生活水平的提升，人们对于油脂的需求不断提高，在油脂中，植物油占总量约80%，其余由黄油、猪油和鱼油等动物油脂构成。尽管近些年油脂总产量不断增加，但动物油脂的产量基本上维持不变，油脂产量的增长主要来自于植物油脂，特别是棕榈油产量的增长。棕榈油具有独特的营养成分、相对低廉的市场价格以及相对多样的用途，在国际油脂市场具有很强的竞争力，现在棕榈油已经成为全球第2大食用植物油，由于全球棕榈油生产地主要集中于马来西亚、印度尼西亚等少数国家，而消费区域非常广泛，因此棕榈油国际贸易量很大，占全球植物油贸易总量一半以上。 相似文献
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在简要回顾1949—2012年中国糖料和食糖市场发展历程的基础上,分析了不同阶段我国糖料和食糖市场发展的主要驱动力,进而得出中国糖料与食糖市场的主要变迁特点:一是食糖产量大体呈增长态势,且呈明显的周期性波动特征;二是糖料与食糖产业结构日益向优势产区集中;三是食糖消费稳步增长,且近5年增速超过产量增速;四是国内食糖供需维持紧平衡且供需缺口长期存在,食糖进口近两年大幅增加;五是食糖价格波动剧烈且影响食糖价格波动的因素日益复杂;六是食糖产业链各环节逐步实现转型升级,现货、远期和期货结合的多元化市场体系初步形成,且制糖企业集中度日益提高。 相似文献
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棉花期货的推出,可有效降低棉花现货市场的波动风险.以我国棉花期货与现货价格为研究对象,采用ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、VAR模型、Granger因果检验等方法对我国棉花期货价格与现货价格间的动态关系进行实证分析.结果 表明:棉花期货与现货价格之间存在长期动态均衡关系,期货价格对现货价格有一定的引导作用,相关从业者可以利用期货价格的波动趋势预测未来棉花现货价格的走势. 相似文献
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进入2007年11月份,国内小麦市场一改往日不温不火的平淡局面,开始出现价格上扬,但进入12月上旬又呈现小幅下跌的趋势。综合各方分析结论,近期小麦价格波动的主要原因为：（1）国内外成品油价格上涨导致运输费用增加,拉动小麦进厂价格上涨;（2）国内面粉销售开始进入旺季,许多企业加大了小麦采购力度;（3）玉米价格上涨较快,导致部分饲料加工企业采购小麦作为玉米替代品; 相似文献
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棉花期货的推出,可有效降低棉花现货市场的波动风险.以我国棉花期货与现货价格为研究对象,采用ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、VAR模型、Granger因果检验等方法对我国棉花期货价格与现货价格间的动态关系进行实证分析.结果 表明:棉花期货与现货价格之间存在长期动态均衡关系,期货价格对现货价格有一定的引导作用,相关从业者可以利用期货价格的波动趋势预测未来棉花现货价格的走势. 相似文献
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为探讨影响油菜产品价格波动的关键金融因素,本研究利用2004年1月至2020年7月的油菜产品的月度价格数据,选取油脂类农产品期货交易额、货币流动性、国际原油价格、人民币汇率和短期资本流动等金融指标构建TVP-SV-VAR模型,分析了五类金融化因素对三种油菜价格波动的影响及时变效应。结果表明,五类金融化因素对油菜产品价格波动具有明显的时变特征。首先,等间隔的脉冲响应表明,五类金融化因素对油菜产品价格的冲击影响主要集中在短期,并且油脂类农产品期货有利于平抑外部冲击对油菜产品价格的影响。第二,时点脉冲响应表明,货币流动性对三种油菜产品现货价格都有显著的拉动作用,国际原油价格对油菜籽和菜籽粕价格有较大的正向影响,对菜籽油价格波动的影响较小,人民币汇率和短期资本流动对油菜产品价格的影响具有较强的时变性和结构性突变。基于上述分析,本研究提出继续完善油菜产品“保险+期货”金融预警体系来稳定价格预期、建立油菜产品价格信息机制为油菜产品市场提供有效信息,以绿色和规模化导向来完善油菜补贴制度等政策建议。 相似文献
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Dauqan E Sani HA Abdullah A Kasim ZM 《Pakistan journal of biological sciences: PJBS》2011,14(6):399-403
The objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of four different vegetable oils [red palm olein (RPO), palm olein (PO), corn oil (CO), coconut oil (COC)] on antioxidant enzymes activity of rat liver. Sixty six Sprague Dawley male rats which were randomly divided into eleven groups of 6 rats per group and were treated with 15% of RPO, PO, CO and COC for 4 and 8 weeks. Rats in the control group were given normal rat pellet only while in treated groups, 15% of additional different vegetable oils were given. After 4 weeks of treatment the catalase (CAT) activity results showed that there was no significance difference (p > or = 0.05) between the control group and treated groups while after 8 weeks of treatment showed that there was no significant different (p > or = 0.05) between control group and RPO group but the treated rat liver with PO, CO and COC groups were the lowest and it were significantly lower (> or = 0.05) than control group. For superoxide dismutase (SOD) there was no significance difference (p > or = 0.05) between the control group and treated groups of vegetable oils after 4 and 8 weeks of treatment. Thus the study indicated that there was no significant (p > or = 0.05) effect on antioxidant enzyme (superoxide dismutase) but there was significant effect (p > or = 0.05) on catalase in rat liver. 相似文献
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近年来,我国大豆需求量逐年上升,而国产大豆产量却逐渐下降,进口量迅速上升。自美国政府对我国发起贸易战以来,大豆期货价格大幅变动。因此,研究中国大豆期货价格的形成机制尤为重要。本文通过建立变结构的正态Copula-GARCH(1,1)-t模型检验DCE(大连商品交易所)和CBOT(芝加哥商品交易所)两个市场之间的波动溢出效应,并利用Bayes时序诊断和Z检验方法诊断变结构点。结果发现:CBOT大豆期货的波动性高于DCE大豆期货,DCE与CBOT大豆期货市场之间存在波动溢出效应,DCE与CBOT大豆期货时变相关系数序列有3个变结构点最为显著。据此,对DCE与CBOT大豆期货的波动溢出效应的变化原因进行了分析。 相似文献
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《Journal of Crop Improvement》2013,27(1-2):345-369
Abstract Oil quality in vegetable oils is determined by both nutritional and functional aspects, which are, in turn, primarily determined by the fatty acid profile (i.e., fatty acid composition) of the oil. The naturally occurring fatty acid composition of Brassica oils has been extensively modified using conventional plant breeding and biotechnology-based techniques to create unique and improved quality vegetable oils. New Brassica cultivars displaying a wide range of edible oil qualities have been developed, and commercialized in recent years. Improved Brassica cultivars which produce an industrial oil have also been developed and commercialized in the last two decades. World vegetable oil markets are highly competitive, so the steady improvement in oil quality of the Brassica oilseeds is essential to maintain or increase market share, and/or to create new niche markets. The main challenges facing Brassica oilseed breeders are (1) to determine the desirable fatty acid profiles of the oil for each end-use market application to create improved oils and (2) to quickly develop improved Brassica cultivars which can produce the new fatty acid profile oils at competitive prices. 相似文献
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Mohd Hafiz Mohd HazirAbdul Rashid Mohamed Shariff Mohd Din Amiruddin 《Industrial Crops and Products》2012,36(1):466-475
Non-destructive and real-time oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) grading systems are of major exploratory concern for researchers in the oil palm industry. The objective is to reduce time, labour, costs, and most importantly, to increase the oil extraction rate, in order to achieve a good quality of palm oil at a more acceptable price. This research investigates the potential of flavonoids and anthocyanins as a predictor to classify the degree of oil palm FFB ripeness. This paper also discusses the relationship between these predictors and the ripeness categories period. One hundred and eighty oil palm FFB samples were collected from a private plantation in Malaysia, according to three maturity categories i.e., ripe, under-ripe, and over-ripe. Each sample was randomly scanned 10 times, both front and back using a hand-held Multiplex®3 multi-parameter fluorescence sensor. The results show that flavonoid and anthocyanin content decreased from immature to over mature oil palm FFBs. Overall, the relationship using Pearson's correlation between flavonoids and anthocyanins was r2 = 0.84 and the most outstanding relationship accuracy was at the over-ripe stage, at 90%. Statistical analysis using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and pair-wise testing proved that both predictors gave significance difference between under-ripe, ripe, and over-ripe maturity categories. This shows that both predictors can be good indicators to classify oil palm FFB. Classification analysis was performed by using both predictors together and separately through several methods. The highest overall classification accuracy was 87.7% using a Stochastic Gradient Boosting Trees model and with both predictors. The other classification methods used either independent or both predictors together and gave various results ranging from 50 to 85% accuracy. This research proves that flavonoids and anthocyanins can be used as predictors of oil palm maturity classification. 相似文献
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To determine potential growth strategies for the German fresh potato market, production area, harvested quantities, producer prices and consumption values for the German potato market were examined using trend analysis. German potato harvests were stable over time due to improved growing techniques. Producer longterm prices stayed stable despite their periodic volatility. Overall production area and levels of fresh potato consumption are undergoing a sharp decline. Furthermore, there is a significant relation between total yield and producer prices as dependent variables. In order to compensate for the reduction in consumption, a framework was developed to change the commodity status of fresh potatoes into a differentiated product with new market potential. A consumer and product orientated market segmentation and analysis was applied to the fresh potato market to identify trends and future opportunities. Application of these new differentiated products will help stop the decline of fresh potato consumption by attracting new customers in urban and rural areas. In addition, these new markets are expected to reduce the producer price volatility. 相似文献
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