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1.
Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.
In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.
Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.
Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society. 相似文献
2.
气候变化对中国东北地区生态与环境的影响 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
【研究目的】综述了气候变化对东北地区的影响,以期在区域发展中能利用气候变化的有利方面,降低其不利的影响;【方法】根据近年来发表的相关论文,文章综述了东北地区已经发生的气候变化影响及未来可能受到的影响;【结果】结果表明,过去100年东北地区的温度升高明显且降水普遍减少,干旱化趋势严峻。温度的升高改善了东北的热量资源,部分农业生产从中受益。但由于气候变化,目前特殊的生态系统如湿地,冻土退化或消失。未来的气候变化,会改变农业生产布局,降低主要作物的产量,生态系统结构发生改变,农牧带沙漠化的风险增加;【结论】东北地区必须客观认识气候变化的利弊影响,采取相应的适应和应对措施,促进区域发展。 相似文献
3.
Pytrik Reidsma Frank Ewert Alfons Oude Lansink Rik Leemans 《European Journal of Agronomy》2010,32(1):91-102
Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm management are often ignored, but these strongly influence current farm performance and are likely to also influence adaptation to future changes. This study analysed the adaptation of farmers and regions in the European Union to prevailing climatic conditions, climate change and climate variability in the last decades (1990–2003) in the context of other conditions and changes. We compared (1) responses in crop yields with responses in farmers’ income, (2) responses to spatial climate variability with responses to temporal climate variability, (3) farm level responses with regional level responses and (4) potential climate impacts (based on crop models) with actual climate impacts (based on farm accountancy data). Results indicated that impacts on crop yields cannot directly be translated to impacts on farmers’ income, as farmers adapt by changing crop rotations and inputs. Secondly, the impacts of climatic conditions on spatial variability in crop yields and farmers’ income, with generally lower yields in warmer climates, is different from the impacts of temporal variability in climate, for which more heterogeneous patterns are observed across regions in Europe. Thirdly, actual impacts of climate change and variability are largely dependent on farm characteristics (e.g. intensity, size, land use), which influence management and adaptation. To accurately understand impacts and adaptation, assessments should consider responses at different levels of organization. As different farm types adapt differently, a larger diversity in farm types reduces impacts of climate variability at regional level, but certain farm types may still be vulnerable. Lastly, we observed that management and adaptation can largely reduce the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop yields and farmers’ income. We conclude that for reliable projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, adaptation should not be seen anymore as a last step in a vulnerability assessment, but as integrated part of the models used to simulate crop yields, farmers’ income and other indicators related to agricultural performance. 相似文献
4.
Han-Yong Kim Jonghan Ko Seungtaek Jeong Jun-Hwan Kim Byunwoo Lee 《Journal of Crop Science and Biotechnology》2017,20(5):417-427
Determining effective measures to alleviate the impact of climate change on crops under various regional environments is one of the most urgent issues facing agriculture. In this study, geographic regions of South Korea for future-adjusted barley cultivation were outlined and the impact of climate change on barley production in the next 100 years was evaluated under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios: the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. To achieve our intended study goals, a geospatial crop simulation modeling (GCSM) scheme was formulated using CERES-barley model of Decision Support System for Agricultural Technology (DSSAT) crop model package version 4.6 to simulate grid-based geospatial crop yields. Two experiments were carried out at an open field to obtain model coefficients for the nation and at temperature gradient field chambers to evaluate the performance of the CERES-barley model under elevated temperature conditions. Suitable cultivation regions for three different types of barley (naked, hooded, and malting) under changing climate were projected to expand to the northern regions under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. However, they were projected to expand more rapidly under RCP 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Projected yields of four barley varieties were increased with a slow phase as year progressed under RCP 4.5 scenario. However, they were rapidly increased under RCP 8.5 scenario. It appears that geospatial variation in barley yield under changing climate can be effectively outlined. Therefore, GCSM system might be useful for determining impacts of climate change on geospatial variations of crops, potentially providing means to impede food insecurity. 相似文献
5.
In the arable farming region Flevoland in The Netherlands climate change, including extreme events and pests and diseases, will likely pose risks to a variety of crops including high value crops such as seed potato, ware potato and seed onion. A well designed adaptation strategy at the farm level can reduce risks for farmers in Flevoland. Currently, most of the impact assessments rely heavily on (modelling) techniques that cannot take into account extreme events and pests and diseases and cannot address all crops, and are thus not suited as input for a comprehensive adaptation strategy at the farm level.To identify major climate risks and impacts and develop an adaptation measure portfolio for the most relevant risks we complemented crop growth modelling with a semi-quantitative and participatory approach, the Agro Climatic Calendar (ACC), A cost-benefit analysis and stakeholder workshops were used to identify robust adaptation measures and design an adaptation strategy for contrasting scenarios in 2050.For Flevoland, potential yields of main crops were projected to increase, but five main climate risks were identified, and these are likely to offset the positive impacts. Optimized adaptation strategies differ per scenario (frequency of occurrence of climate risks) and per farm (difference in economic loss). When impacts are high (in the +2 °C and A1 SRES scenario) drip irrigation was identified as the best adaptation measure against the main climate risk heat wave that causes second-growth in seed and ware potato. When impacts are smaller (the +1 °C and B2 SRES scenario), other options including no adaptation are more cost-effective.Our study shows that with relatively simple techniques such as the ACC combined with a stakeholder process, adaptation strategies can be designed for whole farming systems. Important benefits of this approach compared to modelling techniques are that all crops can be included, all climate factors can be addressed, and a large range of adaptation measures can be explored. This enhances that the identified adaptation strategies are recognizable and relevant for stakeholders. 相似文献
6.
Do-Soon Kim Kwang Soo Kim Jonghan Ko Min Chul Kim 《Journal of Crop Science and Biotechnology》2015,18(4):205-207
Climate change is an apparent phenomenon affecting life in many aspects including crop production, so the assessment of its impact on crop production is urgently required to establish strategies and technologies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Numerous efforts have been made to investigate the effects of climate change with emphases on elevated temperature and CO2 on crops, to assess climate change impact on crop production, and to develop application technologies for coping with climate change in a sustainable manner. This special issue of JCSB contains a collection of peer-reviewed research articles covering the impact of microclimate conditions on crop production (4 papers), modeling approaches for impact assessment (3 papers), and applications of crop science and biotechnology for climate change adaptation (3 papers). It is believed that this special issue will help crop scientists broaden their knowledge and understanding on climate change issues in crop production and facilitate research in crop science and biotechnology in battling against climate change to sustain current crop production and increase future crop production to feed ever continuously increasing human population. 相似文献
7.
气候变化对中国农业的影响研究进展 总被引：16，自引：5，他引：11
juhui@ami.ac.cn 《中国农学通报》2006,22(5):439-439
（1湖北三峡职业技术学院,宜昌 443000;2中国农科院农业环境与可持续发展所,北京 100081） 相似文献
8.
气候变化影响下长江流域油菜产量模拟初步研究 总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3
为油菜主产区油料作物种植结构调整、合理布局以及制定适应气候变化的管理措施提供理论依据。以中国三大油料作物之一的油菜为代表,针对油菜主产区之一的长江流域的油菜生产,利用引进的澳大利亚APSIM-Canola油菜模型,结合英国Hadley中心的区域气候模式PRECIS,对SRES A2、B2 2种排放情景下油菜生产状况进行模拟。同时结合多元回归统计方法,分析长江流域气候变化对油菜生产已经造成和未来可能造成的影响,并提出可能的适应性对策。研究表明：（1）油菜雨养产量与关键生育时期（现蕾-抽苔期、抽苔-开花期）内辐射和温度呈显著的负相关,与降水呈正相关。（2）A2、B2气候变化情景下油菜单产均随时间呈降低趋势,21世纪80年代减产幅度最为明显,A2情景下近期（21世纪20年代）、中期（21世纪50年代）、远期（21世纪80年代）油菜产量波动呈加强趋势,且同一时期内A2情景下产量波动趋势均大于B2情景。（3）适当采用调整播种期和栽培方式、改良作物品种等适应性对策可有效降低油菜的减产趋势。 相似文献
9.
气候变化对中国种植制度影响的研究进展 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为研究气候变化对中国农业种植制度的影响,综述了学者们在气候变化对中国种植制度和复种指数影响上的研究结果。结果显示：未来气候变化将会使中国的3熟区面积扩大,1熟区面积缩小,2熟区面积变化较小。农业复种指数在总体增加的情况下,在不同地区的增加幅度有所不同。但是,研究中还存在着气候模型自身的不足以及未考虑技术进步等因素对种植制度和复种指数的影响。因此,在今后的研究中,需要加强模型精确度及多因素综合对中国种植制度的影响研究,以提高预测结果的准确度。 相似文献
10.
The Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) is a very important crop growing area, comprising seven sub-regions: Xing’anling (XA), Sanjiang (SJ), Northwest Songliao (NSL), Central Songliao (CSL), Southwest Songliao (SSL), Changbaishan (CB) and Liaodong (LD), which has been severely affected by extreme climate events and climatic change. Therefore, a set of expert survey has been done to identify current and project future climate limitations to crop production and explore appropriate adaptation measures in NFR. Droughts have been the largest limitation for maize (Zea mays L.) in NSL and SSL, and for soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) in SSL. Chilling damage has been the largest limitation for rice (Oryza sativa L.) production in XA, SJ and CB. Projected climate change is expected to be beneficial for expanding the crop growing season, and to provide more suitable conditions for sowing and harvest. Autumn frost will occur later in most parts of NFR, and chilling damage will also decrease, particularly for rice production in XA and SJ. Drought and heat stress are expected to become more severe for maize and soybean production in most parts of NFR. Also, plant diseases, pests and weeds are considered to become more severe for crop production under climate change. Adaptation measures that have already been implemented in recent decades to cope with current climatic limitations include changes in timing of cultivation, variety choice, soil tillage practices, crop protection, irrigation and use of plastic film for soil cover. With the projected climate change and increasing risk of climatic extremes, additional adaptation measures will become relevant for sustaining and improving productivity of crops in NFR to ensure food security in China. 相似文献
11.
覆盖作物及其作用的研究进展 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
在农作物种植系统中,田间杂草、土壤因素对作物的生长发育、产量和品质的影响一直都是农业领域关注的热点。大量使用化肥和除草剂可以达到作物增产、除草的目的,但其对土壤和环境造成的负面影响,严重制约了农业生产的可持续发展。种植覆盖作物是一种实现农业可持续发展的新策略,可以达到控制杂草、减少氮肥施用、改善土壤质量等目的。本文主要从覆盖作物的起源与发展过程、主要种类和作用及其种植制度等方面,总结了目前覆盖作物的研究进展及其在作物种植中的应用,以期为覆盖作物在我国农业生产中的研究与应用提供理论基础。 相似文献
12.
In estimating responses of crops to future climate realisations, it is necessary to understand and differentiate sources of uncertainty. This paper considers the specific aspect of input weather data quality from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) leading to differences in estimates made by three crop models. The availability of hindcast RCM estimates enables comparison of crop model outputs derived from observed and modelled weather data. Errors in estimating the past climate implies biases in future projections, and thus affect modelled crop responses. We investigate the complexities in using climate model projections representing different spatial scales within climate change impacts and adaptation studies. This is illustrated by simulating spring barley with three crop models run using site-specific observed (12 UK sites), original (50 × 50 km) and bias corrected downscaled (site-specific) hindcast (1960–1990) weather data from the HadRM3 RCM. Though the bias correction downscaling method improved the match between observed and hindcast data, this did not always translate into better matching of crop model estimates. At four sites the original HadRM3 data produced near identical mean simulated yield values as from the observed weather data, despite evaluated (observed-hindcast) differences. This is likely due to compensating errors in the input weather data and non-linearity in the crop models processes, making interpretation of results problematic. Understanding how biases in climate data manifest themselves in individual crop models gives greater confidence in the utility of the estimates produced using downscaled future climate projections and crop model ensembles. The results have implications on how future projections of climate change impacts are interpreted. Fundamentally, considerable care is required in determining the impact weather data sources have in climate change impact and adaptation studies, whether from individual models or ensembles. 相似文献
13.
气候变化对中国农业生产影响的模拟评价进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
气候变化对农业生产影响评价研究已成为众多学者和政府部门关注的热点问题。近几十年来,国内外学者从不同角度用不同方法开展了大量的气候变化对农业生产影响的评估研究。该文重点论述了利用模型模拟方法评价气候变化对中国农业生产、作物生长发育的影响,以及适应对策的最近研究进展,并简要地讨论了该领域研究存在的问题和今后有待进一步深入的研究内容。 相似文献
14.
气候变化对三大粮食作物产量影响研究进展 总被引：13，自引：4，他引：9
气候变化对中国农业生态环境及作物产量的影响越来越受到关注。通过总结近十年来国内外的研究成果,着重叙述了气候变化对三大粮食作物的产量影响研究方法及其最新进展,归纳了不同研究方法存在的差异。同时对中国未来粮食产量变化进行了分析,指出存在的问题和可能发展的方向,提出了农业适应气候变化和可持续发展的依据。 相似文献
15.
Modelling the impacts of climate change and methane emission reductions on rice production: a review 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Rice agriculture is not only affected by climate change, but also contributes to global warming through the release of methane into the atmosphere. In 1989, a major research project was initiated at the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines to investigate relationships between climate change and rice production. A second project started in 1993 to investigate, in more detail, mitigation options that could be employed to help reduce CH4 emissions from rice cultivation. An important component of all of this work was the quantification of these interactions between climate change and rice production into simulation models, and their subsequent use to upscale field measurements to national and regional levels. The first project developed such a model to integrate existing knowledge of effects of increased levels of CO2 and temperature on rice growth, and used this to predict the impact of various climate change scenarios on rice production in SE Asia. In the second project, routines describing the dynamics of CH4 production and emission from the soil were linked to a crop simulation model to estimate the effect of different crop management scenarios on national CH4 emissions from various countries in the region. With the recent completion of the second project, it is timely to review this modelling work describing the relationships between the global environment and rice production, a task which we attempt in the present paper. The advantages and disadvantages of the modelling approaches used and other issues relating to the upscaling of field measurements to national and regional levels are discussed. Future research directions in this area are also identified. 相似文献
16.
DSSAT模型在中国农业与气候变化领域应用进展 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
为了掌握农业转移支持决策系统(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT)模型在国内农业与气候变化领域的研究进展,更好地让模型在今后气候变化对农业生产影响评估和适应研究中应用,本文以近年来国内的研究和实践为基础,通过梳理模型应用的相关研究案例、方法和成果,从DSSAT 模型本地化适用性验证、数据库构建、参数订正和优化方案、气候变化影响评估及适应的应用等方面全面总结了模型的应用进展。结果表明：DSSAT模型在我国应用比较广泛,包括不同地区和不同作物之间;利用DSSAT模型研究气候变化对农业生产的影响的研究较多,研究结果比较丰富。但模型在应用中存在研究方法和结果比较分散、应用的作物种类有限、数据需求量大而实验数据有限等问题,这些都需要在今后的研究中不断完善解决。 相似文献
17.
气候变化导致的冬小麦产量波动及应对措施模拟 总被引：11，自引：2，他引：11
气候变化导致中国气候资源发生变化,从而影响中国未来的农业生产。利用区域气候模式模拟的未来两种温室气体排放方案A2和B2下的气候变化情景分别与CERES-小麦模式相连接,研究了气候变化下中国北方地区冬小麦长时间序列的产量波动及产量变率的可能变化,及采取两种适应措施后,产量波动及变率的相应变化。结果表明,A2和B2两种气候变化情景下,未来3个时段冬小麦平均产量和最高产量会有所增高,但产量的年际波动和变率也将明显加大,产量的年际变幅也会显著增加。采取适应措施后,调整播期和改变品种会减少产量的波动和变率,该地区播期适当提前,选用中熟品种是未来气候变化下的较好适应组合。 相似文献
18.
气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响已得到高度关注,并形成了诸多研究成果,但影响的评估结果存在一定的争议。笔者对21世纪以来百篇国内外相关高质量文献进行整合梳理,总结讨论了气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响。研究表明：（1）1961年以来气候变化主要通过影响作物生长发育、引起种植结构改变、导致农业病虫害和气象灾害加剧的方式影响了中国的粮食生产,影响结果正负共存,总体上呈负效应,且气温升高的负效应最为显著。（2）气候变化对粮食生产的影响存在地域差异,在东北、西北绿洲等高纬度地区,气温升高改善了区域热量条件,粮食产量有增加趋势;在华北平原、南方稻区、西南地区和西北旱作区,气温升高缩短了作物生育期,加上降水变化,导致区域的粮食产量下降。（3）不考虑CO2肥效作用,未来气候变化很可能造成粮食产量下降,且小麦的减产幅度可能高于水稻和玉米;考虑CO2肥效作用,负面影响将会减弱,并可能对东北地区的水稻和华北平原的小麦产生正面影响。 相似文献
19.
Adaptability and phenotypic stability of Lolium perenne L. cultivars of diverse origin grown at the margin of the species distribution 
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下载免费PDF全文 Á. Helgadóttir R. Aavola M. Isolahti P. Marum C. Persson A. Aleliūnas G. Brazauskas T. A. Krisjánsdóttir T. Asp O. A. Rognli 《Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science》2018,204(5):493-504
In northern countries, Lolium perenne L. generally survives poorly when grown inland and north of 60°N because of extensive winter damage. With the projected future climate change, it could become a promising option for improving production efficiency of the agricultural sector in these regions. Here, we compare the biomass production potential of cultivars of diverse origin across five locations stretching from Estonia to Iceland over a period of three harvest years, and their freezing tolerance under artificial conditions. The aim was to relate the observed pattern of adaptation to the geographic origin of the cultivars and their response to prevailing agroclimatic conditions. Significant interactions were observed between cultivars and test environments (locations × years), and significant interactions between cultivars and years were detected at four of the five locations. Models of joint regression, additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) and factorial regression using several agroclimatic indices showed that cultivars developed in northern countries showed greater yield potential across the test environments and were, thus, generally better adapted than cultivars from Central Europe. Diploid cultivars were more frost tolerant than tetraploid cultivars giving them an advantage in locations which were characterized by low temperatures during the hardening period in autumn and mild and rainy winters, such as at the Icelandic location. Only a few cultivars showed general adaptability to the environmental conditions at the test sites, the most stable cultivar being an admixture of diploids and tetraploids. In future breeding, the best strategy would be to hybridize cultivars developed in northern countries with more exotic materials that combine high yield potential, adequate winter survival and superior disease resistance under northern conditions. 相似文献
20.
全球气候变化影响我国冬小麦生产之前瞻 总被引：51，自引：3，他引：51
将作物模型与大气环流模型（GCM）耦合，评价未来气候变化对我国冬小麦生育期、产量和灌溉需要量的影响，并采用一种农业经济模型，就研究区域未来冬小麦总产的变化进行估计；还根据若干农业所气候指标，分析当CO2倍增时研究区域冬小麦生长期干湿状况的改变，种植界线可能发生的地理位移，以及品种布局和种植制度的演进趋势等 相似文献