共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Maarten van Zonneveld Andy Jarvis William Dvorak German Lema Christoph Leibing 《Forest Ecology and Management》2009
Climate change is likely to have a negative impact on natural populations of Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii, two globally important tree species in plantation forestry. The objective of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the persistence of the natural populations of these species at their actual locations in order to take appropriate conservation measurements. A common approach to assess the impact of climate change on species natural distributions is climate envelope modeling (CEM). CEMs suggest significant impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of the two pine species, but their predictions contain considerable uncertainty related to the adaptive ability of tree populations to withstand future climate conditions. We assessed the adaptive ability of the two pine species based on the evaluations of provenance trials and used the results of these field trials to validate CEM impact assessment studies on provenance collection sites in the wild. The two pine species performed well in a wide range of climates, including conditions that were recorded by CEM as unsuitable for natural pine occurrence. The climate conditions where the two pine species naturally occur are predicted to become in the future more similar to the present climate of some areas where they are successfully established in field trials. These findings suggest that these pine species are in their natural habitat better adapted to climate change than CEM predicts. For the most vulnerable species, P. tecunumanii, human disturbances such as fragmentation from urbanization and conversion to agriculture that are occurring today are more urgent threats requiring action compared to the threat from climate change. 相似文献
2.
基于MaxEnt模型新疆枣潜在适生区预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
【目的】研究全球气候变化对新疆枣潜在分布的影响,划分新疆枣不同等级的适生区,为新疆枣产业的持续稳定发展提供参考。【方法】基于新疆枣地理分布的调查数据和2种气候情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5),利用GIS技术和MaxEnt生态位模型相结合的方法,在全球气候变化背景下,对新疆枣的当前及未来(2050和2070年)潜在适生区分布进行预测。【结果】在当前气候条件下,新疆枣适生区主要分布在南疆和东疆地区。其中适生区总面积达到11.3×10~4 km^2,占新疆土地总面积的6.8%。采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)对MaxEnt模型预测结果进行评价,结果显示训练数据集和测试数据集的曲线下的面积值(AUC值)分别为0.988和0.978,说明模型预测结果较为理想。刀切法分析结果显示,影响新疆枣当前分布的气候因子主要为最热月最高温度、最冷月最低温度、最暖季度均温、最冷季度均温、6月最高气温、7月最高气温、8月最高气温、12月最低气温、1月最低气温和2月最低气温。在未来气候条件下,新疆枣适生区面积有着一定的增加,但适生区的区域变化较小。【结论】Maxent模型预测结果与新疆枣的实际分布重合度较高。低温是影响新疆枣潜在适生区分布的重要因素。在全球气候变暖的趋势下,新疆枣整个潜在适生区面积呈现增加的特点且有向高纬度区域迁移的趋势,北疆地区开始出现较少部分的低适生区。 相似文献
3.
Navarro Cerrillo R. M. Duque-Lazo J. Ríos-Gil N. Guerrero-Álvarez J. J. López-Quintanilla J. Palacios-Rodríguez G. 《New Forests》2021,52(1):89-112
We examined the association between habitat variables and the relative impacts of topographic microclimates as a valuable tool for restoration and conservation of Abies pinsapo in southern Spain. We used presence–absence data from A. pinsapo and 79 environmental variables and biomod species distribution models to describe the current and future species habitat across the Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park (southern Spain). A. pinsapo habitat was most strongly associated with microtopographic (solar incidence) and temperature variables, indicating climate-driven changes in microhabitat use. Most of the temperature variation among the study site was attributable to topographic microclimates rather than regional temperature differences, such that differences in microhabitat associations occurred principally between north- and south-facing slopes within the same region. The current potential distribution suggests that around 8.7% (56.44 km2) of the study area is highly suitable for A. pinsapo, with 9.7% (62.84 km2) being moderately suitable. Under different global circulation models and climate change scenarios, the net decrease in suitable habitat is predicted to be 93% of the current distribution by 2040, disappearing altogether by 2099. Our findings also show a sharp reduction of potential restoration areas (1.8% of the current areas). Microclimatic variation generated by the topography offers the microclimate-driven locations of habitat suitability which could shape species’ distribution restoration actions and their responses to environmental change. The approach presented here can provide a rapid assessment of the future conservation status of other important forest tree species in Spain, improving our understanding of the vulnerability of endangered species under climate change, and can be an effective tool for biodiversity conservation, restoration, and management.
相似文献4.
Jong-Hak Yun Katsuhiro Nakao Ikutaro Tsuyama Motoki Higa Tetsuya Matsui Chan-Ho Park Byoung-Yoon Lee Nobuyuki Tanaka 《Journal of Forest Research》2014,19(1):174-183
To quantitatively assess future change of evergreen broad-leaved tree species’ distributions in human-disturbed landscapes of the Korean Peninsula under climate change, potential habitats (PHs) were projected for four important evergreen broad-leaved tree species (Quercus acuta, Castanopsis sieboldii, Machilus thunbergii, and Neolitsea sericea) by species distribution models (SDMs). The distribution data (presence/absence) of the target species in Korea and Japan were used as response variables for SDMs, and climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Three general circulation models under A2 emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the years 2070–2099. Potential habitats masked by land-use data (PHLUs) were projected to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities. Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for all the target species. The current PHs were decreased to 21–35 % by the anthropogenic activities. Future PHLUs for all the target species were projected to increase by 2.0–18.5 times of current PHLUs. These results suggest that all the target species are applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula, even if anthropogenic effects are incorporated. Variation of the increasing rate was caused by the differences in the response to temperature changes. M. thunbergii responded sensitively to the increase of minimum temperature of coldest month and had a largest increase in PHLUs under future climate. Therefore, M. thunbergii is considered to be most appropriate species for monitoring the changes of horizontal distributions above all focal evergreen broad-leaved tree species. 相似文献
5.
Paul H. Evangelista Sunil KumarThomas J. Stohlgren Nicholas E. Young 《Forest Ecology and Management》2011,262(3):307-316
The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ipspini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2 million km2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species’ ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. 相似文献
6.
Potential effects of climate change on insect herbivores in European forests—General aspects and the pine processionary moth as specific example 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The nature of “climate change” will differ with geographical regions and its final impact on ecosystems vary with the extent of temperature increase, changes in irradiance and levels of UVB, amount and patterns of precipitation and humidity, and alterations in the incidence and nature of abiotic disturbances. Despite many uncertainties, there is consensus in the fact that global warming already has and will have impact on the temporal and spatial dynamics of insect herbivores. Ectothermic organisms are affected by the changes in environmental conditions directly in dispersal, reproduction, development and mortality, and indirectly through altered plant nutritional quality, resistance and via community interactions. Ambiguous consequences are to be expected depending on the individual host plant and herbivore species, probably involving altered incidence and intensity of pest outbreaks and changes in distributional ranges. Regions that represent northern or upper limits of occurrence, such as the Alps or the boreal zone, are likely to be affected most by an increase in stability and population density of certain pest species, such as defoliating insects or bark beetles. At the same time, temperature increase and drought will render areas of distribution in southern and continental parts of Europe less suitable for heat susceptible species, which will probably not only result in northwards shifts, but range contractions. The review is based on chapters of the “Study on impacts of climate change on European forests and options for adaptation” led by the European Forest Institute (Efi) and on results of the EU project “PROMOTH - Global change and pine processionary moth: a new challenge for integrated pest management”. Thaumetopoea pityocampa serves as illustrative example for insect herbivores whose latitudinal and altitudinal distribution is mainly controlled by temperature and already modified by global warming. 相似文献
7.
Mapping forest dynamics under climate change: A matrix model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jingjing Liang Mo ZhouDave L. Verbyla Lianjun ZhangAnna L. Springsteen Thomas Malone 《Forest Ecology and Management》2011,262(12):2250-2262
Global climate change may be affecting forests around the world. However, the impact of climate change on forest population dynamics, especially at the landscape or regional level, has hardly been addressed before. A new methodology was proposed to enable matrix transition models to account for climate impact on forest population dynamics. The first climate-sensitive matrix (CSMatrix) model was developed for the Alaska boreal forest based on observations from over 15 years of forest inventory. The spatially explicit model was used to map climate-induced forest population dynamics across the region. The model predicted that the basal area increment in the region under natural succession would be hindered by global warming, more so for dry upland areas than for moist wetlands. It was suggested that temperature-induced drought stress could more than offset a predicted increase of future precipitation in the region to lower overall forest productivity. At the same time, stand diversity would increase across the region through transient species redistribution. Accounting for climate conditions made the CSMatrix model more accurate than conventional matrix models. 相似文献
8.
E.A. Pinkard M. Battaglia J. Bruce A. Leriche D.J. Kriticos 《Forest Ecology and Management》2010,259(4):839-847
We examined the impacts of a defoliating pest, Mycosphaerella leaf disease (MLD), on rotation-length Eucalyptus globulus plantation productivity under current and future climates by using the ecoclimatic species niche model CLIMEX to generate severity, frequency and seasonality scenarios for MLD for specific E. globulus sites. These scenarios were used as inputs to the process-based forest productivity model CABALA. Climate projections from two global climate models were used to drive CABALA with either no or full acclimation of photosynthesis to elevated atmospheric CO2 assumed. In addition we varied water and nitrogen availability to examine the impacts of different severities of MLD on plantation productivity across environmental gradients. We predicted that, under current climatic conditions, rotation-length reductions in V associated with MLD damage would be no greater than 12%, with an across-site average of 6%. There was considerable between-site variation in predictions that reflected variation in site productivity. Under future climates, we predicted that MLD may reduce rotation length V by as much as 42%, although the reduction averaged across all sites was 11%. The predicted impact of MLD on V was greatest at lower productivity sites. The importance of N and water availability in recovery following MLD attack was highlighted. Uncertainty in model predictions revolved around the climate models used and assumptions of degree of photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2. Large differences in predicted impact of MLD were associated with this uncertainty. Our results suggest that the effects of defoliation due to pests on plantation productivity should not be ignored when considering future management of forest plantations. The approach developed here provides managers with a tool to appraise risk and examine possible impacts of management interventions designed to reduce or manage risk. 相似文献
9.
气候变化情景下河北省3个优势树种适宜分布区预测 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
【目的】探究河北省3个优势树种分布与气候因子的关系,并进行适宜分布区预测,以期为评估气候变化的影响及制定适宜未来气候变化的森林经营策略提供理论依据。【方法】依据河北省森林资源调查数据,选取华北落叶松、蒙古栎和油松这3个主要树种,采用ClimateAP气候模型生成当前及未来(2040—2069年和2070—2099年)与降水和温度相关的10个气候因子,利用MaxEnt生态位模型和基于3个气候变化情景(温室气体最低排放,RCP2.6;中度稳定排放,RCP4.5;高度排放,RCP8.5)的一致性预测,模拟3个树种当前和未来的潜在适宜分布区,并采取响应曲线分析主要气候因子对3个树种适宜分布区的影响。【结果】3个树种MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)都大于0.85,具有较好的预测能力;当前3个树种主要适宜分布在燕山和太行山地区;影响3个树种分布的主导气候因子存在差异,华北落叶松主要受小于0℃年积温和湿季降水量的影响,蒙古栎则主要受最热月平均气温、Hargreaves水分亏缺和湿季降水量的影响,而最热月平均气温、湿季降水量、大于5℃年积温和年均气温是影响油松分布的主要气候因子;一致性预测表明,在2040—2069年,河北省华北落叶松分布面积明显扩大,蒙古栎分布面积变化较小,而油松分布面积显著缩小;在2070—2099年,3个树种的适宜分布面积都显著缩小,幅度均超过3%。【结论】随着气候变化,3个树种均有向高海拔地区迁移的趋势,但在经纬度方向上的分布变化不大。在未来3个树种的适宜分布区,采取人工手段(如造林)辅助树种扩散以适应气候变化,有利于提高森林生产力,构建健康稳定的森林生态系统。 相似文献
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11.
Proactive management should be applied within a forest conservation context to prevent extinction or degradation of those forest ecosystems that we suspect will be affected by global warming in the next century. The aim of this study is to estimate the vulnerability under climate change of a localized and endemic tree species Pinus cembra that occurs in the alpine timberline. We used the Random Forest ensemble classifier and available bioclimatic and ecological data to model present and future suitable areas for P. cembra and estimate its current and future vulnerability. Future projections for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 were simulated using two IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios run under four global climate models. 相似文献
12.
Dario Martin-Benito Vincent KintMiren del Río Bart MuysIsabel Cañellas 《Forest Ecology and Management》2011,262(6):1030-1040
Positive and negative effects of climate change on forest growth have been observed in different parts of the world. However, much is still unknown about how forest structure and productivity might affect climate-growth relationships in the future. We examined the effects of climate, site quality, and competition on tree basal area growth of black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) between 1964 and 2005 in 21 sites in the Iberian Peninsula. We used a new approach to simultaneously account for climate-growth relationships, inter-annual growth variability, and stand structural changes, by fitting a linear mixed effects model (LMEM) for basal area increments (BAI) using climate data, tree-ring chronologies, and repeated forest inventory data. This approach showed the potential to improve our understanding of climate effects on tree growth and to include climate in empirical forest growth models. We used the LMEM to make projections of BAI growth under two CO2 emission scenarios and two global circulation models (GCM). The main climate drivers for growth were precipitation from previous autumn to summer and winter temperature with a positive effect, and temperature in spring-summer which had a negative effect. Tree response to climate was modulated by stand conditions, tree competition, and productivity. The more productive stands showed greater ability to either maintain or increase growth at warmer spring-summer temperatures under different levels of autumn-summer precipitation. Growth projections showed important regional differences. In general, growth under future climate is predicted to decrease although moderate growth increases might be expected in the northern region for highly and moderately productive stands. 相似文献
13.
The future of the endemic Taiwan spruce (Picea morrisonicola) under climate change is of great concern. It is the southernmost species of the genus and its current distribution is limited to high altitudes of Taiwan. As a first step toward assessing the impact of future temperature changes on the species, we quantified the effects of past monthly growing degree days (GDD) on the height growth of plantation Taiwan spruce based on nonlinear mixed-effects growth analysis. Our results showed that past GDD variations had both positive and negative effects on the height growth of the species. July of the preceding year had the greatest influence on current year height growth. An increase in the mean GDD level of the current May would also promote height growth. In contrast, a warmer previous November or current January had negative effects on height growth. If the established height growth–GDD relationship holds, the influences of climate change on Taiwan spruce height growth will depend on the timing of the temperature increases, as well as on the trees current growth stages. Our results suggested that a warmer climate would have a greater influence on trees that are still in the early stages along the height growth trajectory. The established height growth–GDD relationship will be a keystone for developing models assessing how Taiwan spruce responds to climate change. 相似文献
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Haftu Abrha Emiru Birhane Haftom Hagos Ashenafi Manaye 《Journal of Sustainable Forestry》2018,37(8):842-853
Juniperus procera is the most preferred tree in Ethiopia. It is an endangered tree species enumerated in IUCN red list. Accordingly, this study investigates the future suitable habitat of the J. procera under climate change in northern Ethiopia. Three occurrence districts were visited and 124 presence observations were taken. The records, altitude, and 19 bio-climatic variables were used to run a species distribution model to account for the climate change effect on the species. Maxent, Diva-GIS, and ArcGIS were used to evaluate the outputs. Future suitable habitats were projected into mid and end-century time frames with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) under one General Circulation Model, namely the Climate Community System Model Version-4. Our results showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month and altitude are main predictors of the distribution of the species. Suitable habitats of the species will be decreased by 79.84%, 91.17%, 75.31%, and 96.25% in Mid-century RCP2.6, Mid-century RCP8.5, End-century RCP2.6, and End-century RCP8.5 when compared with current distributions, respectively. This indicates that climate change will affect the future distribution of the species. The results of the study indicate that appropriate management strategies must be taken to ensure the long-term survival of J. procera. 相似文献
16.
Jing Yao Xingyuan He Hongshi He Wei Chen Limin Dai Bernard J. Lewis Xiaotao Lv Lizhong Yu 《New Forests》2014,45(5):671-686
Under climate change, the adoption of historical reference as the objective of forest restoration is being questioned. In this study, the spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to analyze how the forest landscape in the upper Hun River area of Liaoning province in northeast China would be affected under current climate trends and future climate change; and to explore whether the historical reference should be the objective of restoration efforts. The results showed that (1) the area percentage (AP) of Quercusmongolica under climate change is always higher than that under the current climate regime, while the AP of Pinuskoraiensis is lower than that under current climate; and (2) the competitive ability of Q. mongolica and Populus davidiana increases, while that of other species decreases under climate change. As interspecies competition shifts under climate change, the historical reference appears in appropriate to serve as the objective of forest restoration. In addition, although Q. mongolica would likely benefit from a warmer and drier climate, use of this species for forest restoration under climate change still requires further research. 相似文献
17.
Mirjam Milad Harald SchaichMatthias Bürgi Werner Konold 《Forest Ecology and Management》2011,261(4):829-843
With a predicted rise in average global surface temperature at an unprecedented rate, as well as changes in precipitation and disturbance regimes, climate change will bring forth new challenges for nature conservation in forest ecosystems. Species and habitats to be protected will be affected as well as related concepts and area specific objectives. Climate change impacts are likely to be aggravated by other anthropogenic stresses such as fragmentation, deposition or habitat destruction. To be reliable and effective, current objectives and guidelines of forest conservation need to be reassessed and improved. Our study analyses possible impacts of climate change on forests and identifies key future challenges for nature conservation in forests and ecosystem research. We reviewed 130 papers on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems and species published between 1995 and 2010. The geographical focus of the study is Central Europe. Papers were analysed accounting for direct and indirect impacts of gradual changes as well as stochastic disturbance events in forest ecosystems and their possible consequences for nature conservation.Even though broader aspects of nature conservation (protected areas, biodiversity) are frequently mentioned, little attention is given to forest-specific nature conservation. Particular aspects are insufficiently represented, such as the influence of climate change on different forest succession stages, the development of dead wood volume and quality, responses of secondary broadleaved species, azonal or extrazonal forests as well as ancient woodlands or remnants of historical silvicultural systems. Challenges arise in the context of great uncertainties about future developments. Nature conservation concepts and objectives in forests need to be adapted either within a permanent evaluation process or through the inclusion of further changes a priori, even if they are to some extent unpredictable. In some cases adaptation measures within nature conservation (e.g. adjusting protected areas) may conflict with interests of other stakeholders. Further research, particularly on interrelations between different impacts and the adaptive capacity of current forest ecosystems, associated species and existing genotypes is urgently needed. The scale and complexity of the task at hand calls for the establishment and further strengthening of international research networks. 相似文献
18.
Context
Some forest insect pests are currently extending their range as a consequence of climate warming. However, in most cases, the evidence is mainly based on correlations and the underlying mechanism is not clearly known.Aims
One of the most severe pests of pine forests in Europe, the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, is currently expanding its distribution as a result of climate warming and does not occupy entirely its potential habitat. A model describing its spread was developed to simulate its potential range in France under various climate change scenarios.Methods
The spread model was divided into several sub-models to describe the growth, survival and dispersal of the species. The model was validated on the observed change of species distribution, its sensitivity was tested, and spread scenarios were simulated for the future.Results
The model shows that climate warming initiated the species range expansion in France since the early 1990s. The spread is now limited by dispersal capability, but human-mediated dispersal could accelerate the range expansion.Conclusion
Species range expansion is an indicator of climate change. However, time lags can appear due to limited dispersal capabilities, and human-mediated dispersal could create satellite colonies and artificially accelerate the spread. 相似文献19.
Bruno Vila Michel Vennetier Christian Ripert Olivier Chandioux Eryuan Liang Frédéric Guibal Franck Torre 《Annals of Forest Science》2008,65(7):709-709
20.
Javier López-Tirado Federico Vessella Bartolomeo Schirone Pablo J. Hidalgo 《New Forests》2018,49(4):471-487
The expected changes to the environmental conditions have concerned the scientific community over the last few decades. A rise in the mean temperature and a variation in rainfall patterns could modify the current distribution of plant species. In this study, we analysed four evergreen oaks (Quercus ilex subsp. ilex, Q. ilex subsp. ballota, Q. suber and Q. coccifera) by means of species distribution models. Three algorithms were used: maximum entropy, logistic regression and environmental distance. Taxa occurrences were taken, chiefly from the National Forest Inventories, and climate data was retrieved from the WorldClim 1.4 project. The present period and four future scenarios were studied. The latter were carried out by averaging thirteen global circulation models (GCMs). Area under the curve was used for validating the models. Maps indicating the suitability and cosuitability among the evergreen oaks were developed. The potential distribution of evergreen oaks in the present period was found to be wider than the actual distribution. Simulations indicate that climate change would increase the cosuitability of western temperate areas for Mediterranean oaks. The use of different algorithms and GCMs, as well as the high validation values obtained, make the study robust. Oaks are an important source of income, especially Q. ilex subsp. ballota and Q. suber. Our findings contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of oaks, and can be considered for management programmes aimed at conserving this natural heritage. 相似文献