共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
《Agricultural Systems》1999,60(2):137-155
Risk analysis of replanting strategies for grain sorghum at three Kansas locations was conducted using stochastic dominance techniques. Yield data were simulated for seven planting dates, six seeding rates or target plant populations, and three maturity classes over a 33-year period using weather data for each year at each location. The results showed that optimal planting dates, seeding rates, and maturity classes vary by location and risk preference. In northeast and southcentral Kansas, planting at later rather than earlier dates was preferred as risk aversion increased. In southwest Kansas, generally no change occurred in the preferred strategy as the level of risk aversion increased. Early- and medium-maturing hybrids and low-to-moderate seeding rates often were selected. Late-maturing hybrids never were selected by risk-averse managers. The degree of risk aversion did not significantly affect the selection of a replanting strategy for southcentral and southwest Kansas, but did for northeast Kansas. However, whether managers replanted immediately or delayed, replanting varied with the replanting decision date and degree of risk aversion. Replanting on the first replanting decision date in southwest Kansas rather than delaying 2 weeks or more was preferred by all risk-averse managers. More strongly risk-averse managers in the northeast and all risk-averse producers in southcentral Kansas preferred to delay replanting of damaged stands, in some cases by 2–4 weeks after the decision date. Results also showed that when a stand was damaged late in the season, the expected yield from the damaged stand had to be lower than that from a stand damaged early in the season in order for replanting to occur. Price changes had only minor impacts on the preferred replanting strategies. A higher crop price caused replanting to occur more often, because the yield reduction of a damaged stand required for replanting to be economically feasible grew smaller as the price increased. 相似文献
2.
This study provides a risk analysis of long-term field experiments in Germany (Bavaria) on various field crops (potato, wheat and corn), grown in rotation, under a variety of different tillage and nitrogen management systems. The field experiment provided yield and input data for the analysis, and was combined with market data relevant to the case-study region. The emphasis of the analysis is on the interaction between risk and tillage and nitrogen strategies. Over the whole rotation (corn-wheat-potato-wheat), conventional tillage combined with conventional nitrogen rates is optimal, both for risk-neutral and risk-averse farmers. Although less intensive management practices involve lower risk, the decrease in risk premium is not sufficient to alter the ranking of strategies, even for farmers with higher levels of risk aversion. Reducing nitrogen rates would be costly to farmers, especially under reduced or shallow tillage. Decoupled farm subsidies within the expected utility model show that even for a scenario with no subsidies our conclusions do not change. 相似文献
3.
The main objective of this research was to develop an expected utility optimisation model to economically evaluate deficit irrigation within a multi-crop setting while taking into account the increasing production risk of deficit irrigation. The dynamic problem of optimising water use between multiple crops within a whole-farm setting when intraseasonal water supply may be limited was approximated by the inclusion of multiple irrigation schedules into the optimisation model. The SAPWAT model (South African Plant WATer) was further developed to quantify crop yield variability of deficit irrigation while taking the non-uniformity of irrigation applications into account. Stochastic budgeting procedures were used to generate appropriately correlated matrixes of gross margins necessary to incorporate risk into the water use optimisation model. Special care was taken to represent risk aversion consistently between the alternatives through the use of a new procedure to standardise values of absolute risk aversion. The model was applied to study the impact of increasing levels of risk aversion on the profitability of deficit irrigation under limited water supply conditions. The main conclusion from the analyses was that although deficit irrigation was stochastically more efficient than full irrigation under limited water supply conditions, irrigation farmers would not willingly choose to conserve water through deficit irrigation and would be expected to be compensated to do so. Deficit irrigation would not save water if the water that was saved through deficit irrigation were used to plant larger areas to increase the overall profitability of the strategy. Standard risk aversion was used to explain the simultaneous increasing and decreasing relationship between the utility weighted premiums and increasing levels of absolute risk aversion and was shown to be more consistent than when constant absolute risk aversion was assumed. 相似文献
4.
We model the contractual arrangements between smallholder pepper (Piper nigrum L.) producers and a single processor in Costa Rica. Producers in the El Roble settlement sell their pepper to only one processing firm, which exerts its monopsonistic bargaining power by setting the purchase price of fresh pepper. It also sets quality norms that result in the rejection of considerable amounts of the pepper produced by individual farmers. Because the firm is not able to produce its own raw pepper and requires a sufficiently stable flow of the fresh product to be processed into high quality white pepper, it usually relies on contracts with individual smallholders. Nevertheless, the latter considered collective marketing and took the initiative to propose a group contract with the firm. Such a contract increases the producers’ bargaining power vis-à-vis the processing firm and reduces rejection rates as more care is taken when transporting the pepper to be processed. Although a group contract causes the firm to lose part of its monopsonistic rents, it also reduces transaction costs as only one contract must be negotiated instead of many. Both the firm and the producers benefit, yet from the very beginning of the association, the producers breached the group contract. We have used a mixed integer linear model which, given a set of constraints, maximises the weighted sum of the expected incomes of the firm and producers. We modelled the contract chosen by the firm and the producers according to the conditions included, such as minimum income requirements and risk considerations of both processor and farmers. We calibrated the model with data from pepper producers and the firm in El Roble. The results show that at different fresh pepper prices, the contract preferred changes with the bargaining power attributed to the firm and smallholders. However, in general, it can be concluded that fresh pepper prices high enough to cover the costs, for the farmers, of a group contract lead to lower rejection rates, and thus to more pepper of an acceptable quality, increasing the incomes of both the processor and the farmers. This is also of interest in agricultural policy-making. 相似文献
5.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to the vulnerability of crop production to climate variability in the Pampas region of Argentina. Predictability of regional climate anomalies associated with ENSO may provide opportunities to tailor decisions to expected climate, either to mitigate expected adverse conditions or to take advantage of favorable conditions. Model analysis was used to explore the potential for tailoring land allocation among crops to ENSO phases at the farm scale in two sub-regions of the Pampas. The model identifies as a function of risk preferences and initial wealth the crop mix that maximizes expected utility of wealth at the end of a 1-year decision period based on current costs and prices, and crop yields simulated for each year of historical weather. The model reproduced recent land allocation patterns at the district scale under moderate risk aversion, and predicted increasing diversification with increasing risk aversion. Differences in land allocation among ENSO phases were consistent with known climate response to ENSO, and crop response to water availability. Tailoring land allocation to ENSO phase increased mean net farm income between US$5 and $15 ha−1 year−1 relative to optimizing the crop mixture for all years, depending on location, risk aversion and initial wealth. The relationship between potential value of ENSO information and risk aversion was not monotonic, and differed between locations. Crop mix and information value also varied with crop prices and initial soil moisture. There are potential financial benefits of applying this approach to tailoring decisions to ENSO phases. 相似文献
6.
Analysis of information systems and communication networks for organic and conventional hazelnut producers in the Samsun province of Turkey 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Kursat Demiryurek 《Agricultural Systems》2010,103(7):444-452
This research presents an analysis of the agricultural information systems and communication networks for organic and conventional hazelnut producers in the Samsun province of Turkey. Structured interviews were used to collect data from 64 randomly selected conventional and all 39 organic hazelnut producers living in the study area. Information systems for organic and conventional producers were found to be different. Organic producers benefited from more information sources than conventional producers. In addition, the contract farming approach to organic agriculture had initially isolated organic producers from conventional producers. Furthermore, dissatisfaction from the organic marketing company and its organic production project resulted in further separation among organic producers and led some of them to establish their own union. The lack of access to information and support from the organic project-related sources, professional institutions and mass media sources was evident. This resulted in the development of social sources to exchange information among the producers within their villages. However, this information is mainly based on traditional practices rather than scientific applications. Thus, more functional cooperation and professional communication between personal and institutional information sources are needed to enhance the diffusion of information and technology among farmers. 相似文献
7.
Eastern Germany is often hit by drought causing income risk for crop farmers. Index-based risk management instruments could help crop farmers to reduce their farm income risk. Such instruments have some important advantages over damage-based insurance, like e.g. less moral hazard and adverse selection. At the same time they typically have a high level of basis risk. Up to now, mainly precipitation-based weather derivatives have been discussed as an appropriate risk management instrument for farmers in Germany. As a potentially more effective alternative, we propose water capacity-based index insurance. In order to show the benefits of a precipitation-based and water capacity-based index insurance, several contract designs are compared. Using a whole farm risk program planning approach, we show that for an average agricultural producer in Eastern Germany water capacity-based index insurance offers greater benefits than precipitation-based index insurance. 相似文献
8.
9.
10.
J. Brian Hardaker 《Agricultural Systems》2010,103(6):345-350
The notion that we can rationalize risky choice in terms of expected utility appears to be widely if not universally accepted in the agricultural and resource economics profession. While there have been many attempts to assess the risk preferences of farmers, there are few studies of their beliefs about uncertain events encoded as probabilities. We may attribute this neglect to scepticism in the profession about the concept of subjective probability. The general unwillingness to embrace this theory and its associated methods has all too often caused researchers to focus on problems for which frequency data are available, rather than on problems that are more important where data are generally sparse or lacking. In response, we provide a brief reminder of the merits of the subjectivist approach and extract some priorities for future research should there be a change of heart among at least some of the profession. 相似文献
11.
Integration of bio-physical and economic models to analyze management intensity and landscape structure effects at farm and landscape level 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Martin Schönhart Thomas Schauppenlehner Erwin Schmid Andreas Muhar 《Agricultural Systems》2011,104(2):122-134
We present an integrated spatially explicit land use modeling framework, which integrates two key components of agricultural systems, the bio-physical production system and the management system, by coupling the bio-economic farm optimization model FAMOS[space], the crop rotation model CropRota, and the bio-physical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). The integrated modeling framework has been developed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of selected agri-environmental program (AEP) measures. We also focus on the landscape development and therefore include a detailed representation of landscape elements such as fields or orchard meadows in our analysis. An indicator set represents all main environmental AEP objectives, i.e. preservation of water and soil resources, mitigation of climate change, protection of biodiversity, maintenance of cultural landscapes as well as farm income support. The integrated modeling framework is applied to 20 farms in the Austrian ‘Mostviertel’ region, which are selected from the Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS) of the European Union. The cost-effectiveness of AEP measures is assessed under different premium levels. The implementation of the AEP clearly affects environmental quality in a positive way. Nitrogen rates are reduced, landscape elements can be sustained, and the landscape becomes more diverse. The program also increases farm gross margins on average. However, the cost-effectiveness ratios (CER) are declining with increasing premium levels. The results indicate that the cost-effectiveness of AEP measures can be improved by spatial targeting. 相似文献
12.
Tushaar Shah 《Agricultural Systems》1983,11(1):41-64
In a competitive agricultural commodity market, a parity can be expected between the prices of the raw materials and the prices of the final products. This paper attempts to show that such a parity does not exist between the price of liquid milk and the prices of milk fat and SNF in the forms in which they are produced in India, because the traditional milk producers do not have access to a technology that enables them to convert the SNF contained in their milk into products which have ready markets.This fact has given the modern dairy co-operatives of the rural milk producers a significant economic advantage in their competition with the traditional producers, since they have been able to give their members access to such a technology.This paper argues that the new, developing dairy co-operatives should devise their long-term strategies with a view to exploiting this economic advantage while it exists; for, in the long run, this advantage must disappear as competition among the dairy co-operatives in the markets for liquid milk and milk products increases. 相似文献
13.
In the Netherlands the greenhouse sector is a major user of energy. It accounts for 7% of the total national energy use and for 79% of the total energy use in agriculture. In order to sustain this sector on the long term, it is important that its use of energy is lowered. One way of reducing energy use by horticultural producers is investing in energy-saving systems. The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the investment behavior of firm operators in the adoption of energy-saving systems. Research objectives of the paper are (1) to analyze factors underlying the decision to invest, (2) to explore factors underlying the optimal size of investments. Three investment theories were used to construct an empirical model of investment. Consequently, this model was estimated in a two-stage procedure to analyze the factors influencing the decision of farmers to invest and the level of investments. The paper ends with policy implications. 相似文献
14.
计及电价风险的水电站短期优化调 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
提出同时考虑发电收益和电价风险的水电厂短期优化调度问题。利用效用函数和风险态度参数，均衡发电收益最大化和风险最小化两个不同的目标。建立风险调度决策模型，得到不同风险容许度下的优化调度方案。算例表明，该模型有助于水电厂制定计及风险约束下的发电调度计划。 相似文献
15.
Francisco L. Santos 《Irrigation and Drainage Systems》1996,10(3):281-294
The tomato industry reformed its system of payment by weight of tomato, introducing a corrective system based on percent level of fruit dry matter produced. Such a decision implies significant changes in the management of irrigation systems, with a need to emphasize the technological quality of the marketable product. Three levels of distribution uniformity of the irrigation system are analysed, and related production functions of crop yield and percent of dry matter are presented as well as their use on the optimisation of dry matter, expected revenues and seasonal applied water. Results are critically influenced by the distribution uniformity. They demonstrate the inter-relationship between crop production, percent fruit dry matter and irrigation management, and the importance of considering non-uniformity in the economic analysis of industrial tomato production. Decreases in uniformity lead to a reduction in dry matter production per unit land. Decreases in dry matter are also observed with increasing levels of seasonally applied water, with the optimal level always lower than the required for maximum yield. Such interaction suggests a continuous and inverse relationship between profit and water applied. However, due to the corrective system of payment, by levels of percent of dry matter produced, for some uniformity, the expected revenue follows the yield-water production function instead of the dry matter function. This fact introduces disturbances in the optimal water applied inducing higher than expected levels of water applied for profit maximisation. The simulated data also show that incentives to switch to new systems or management practices able to raise the distribution uniformity result more from profit losses than increases in water price. 相似文献
16.
《Agricultural Systems》2007,94(1-3):25-42
Predictability of seasonal climate variations associated with ENSO suggests a potential to reduce farm risk by tailoring agricultural management strategies to mitigate the impacts of adverse conditions or to take advantage of favorable conditions. Federal farm policies may enhance or limit the usefulness of this climate information. A representative peanut–cotton–corn non-irrigated North Florida farm was used to estimate the value of the ENSO-based climate information and examine impacts of farm programs under uncertain conditions of climate, prices, and risk aversion levels. Yields from crop model simulations and historical series of prices were used to generate stochastic distributions that were fed into a whole farm model, first, to optimize crop selection and planting dates, and then, to simulate uncertain outcomes under risk aversion, with and without the use of climate information, and with and without the inclusion of farm programs. Results suggest that seasonal climate forecasts have higher value for more risk averse farmers when La Niña or El Niño ENSO phases are forecast. Highly risk averse farmers could benefit from the forecast by taking advantage of potential favorable conditions (offensive responses). The inclusion of Commodity Loan Programs (CLP) and Crop Insurance Programs (CIP) decreased the overall value of the forecast information even to negative levels. However, more risk averse farmers could still benefit moderately from El Niño and marginally from La Niña forecasts when they participate in CLP and CIP. 相似文献
17.
18.
通过分析工程总承包在我国的发展状况及从事工程总承包企业的类型，提出以设计为主体的工程总承包在我国的发展优势，指出设计阶段在这种工程总承包方式下的重要性。根据选取原则确定设计风险评价指标，针对以设计为主体的工程总承包设计阶段风险决策行评价，运用熵权多目标风险评价方法，引入信息熵，构建一个有效的分析框架和熵权多目标决策模型，该模型在系统考虑了风险决策各个方案的客观因素的同时，结合了决策专家的主观因素。通过对实施以设计为主体的工程总承包的某建筑工程项目设计风险决策的实例分析，证实了该风险评价方法的有效性和实用性。采用这种方法的决策评价结果可以为设计企业工程总承包进行设计阶段风险决策提供依据。 相似文献
19.
选取云南省昭通市渔洞水库流域1996~2012年6期TM/ETM影像数据提取归一化植被指数（NDVI）,根据像元二分模型利用不同时期NDVI计算了流域植被覆盖度,得到渔洞水库流域植被覆盖度分级图。结果表明：该区域1996~2012年间植被覆盖度变化明显,平均植被覆盖度从1996年0.306增加到2012年0.356,增加值为0.05,植被覆盖度增加区域的面积达到412.440km2,约占流域总面积的58.17%。其中2000~2008年间为植被恢复期,植被覆盖度呈现持续增长趋势,2008~2012年间为植被退化期,植被覆盖度持续减小。1996~2012年间,高植被覆盖度区域增加显著,主要分布在流域东部、中偏西部以及东南部地区,而2008~2012年间流域西北部地区植被覆盖度等级有明显下降情况,且历年来高植被覆盖度集中的东部地区也呈现植被覆盖度等级明显下降的情况。 相似文献
20.
J.A. Gartner 《Agricultural Systems》1982,8(3):163-191
Replacement policy is not easy to determine on dairy farms where heifers compete with cows for grassland. Using a computer simulation model of this farm situation, two factorial experiments were conducted to evaluate quantitatively the effect of different replacement rates on profitability and herd improvement.The variables changed in herds of average health and very good health were replacement rate (0·14, 0·22, 0·30), age at first calving (36, 24 months), calving index (13, 12 months) and AI sire merit (standard, premium). Initially, the experimental herd had average health, a replacement rate of 0·22, a calving index of 13 months, calved its heifers at 36 months and had been using standard bulls for many years.After 15 years, the increase in the level of a sinking fund when the age at first calving was reduced was between three and five times greater than when premium bulls were used, calving index was reduced or herd health was improved. There was a major interaction between replacement rate and age at first calving.Yield per cow was significantly reduced (P≤0·001) by reducing the age at first calving and significantly increased when premium bulls (P≤0·001) were used or when herd health was improved (P≤0·05).Some treatments were not tested as expected due to the restraining effect of a 13-month calving interval on the availability of cows for breeding pure in a seasonally calving herd. 相似文献