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1.
The current paper analyses the potential for prescribed burning techniques for mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from forest fires and attempts to show quantitatively that it can be a means of achieving a net reduction of carbon emissions in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. The limited number of available studies suggests that significant reductions in CO2 emissions can be obtained and that prescribed burning can be a viable option for mitigating emissions in fire-prone countries. The present analysis shows that the potential reduction attained by prescribed burning as a percentage of the reduction in emissions required by the Kyoto Protocol varies from country to country. Out of the 33 European countries investigated, only in one the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol could potentially be achieved by applying prescribed burning, while three other nations showed a potential net CO2 emissions reduction of about 4–8% of the Kyoto requirements and the majority showed a reduction of less than 2%. This implies that prescribed burning can only make a significant contribution in those countries with high wildland fire occurrence. Over a 5-year period the emissions from wildfires in the European region were estimated to be approximately 11 million tonnes of CO2 per year, while with prescribed burning application this was estimated to be 6 million tonnes, a potential reduction of almost 50%. This means that for countries in the Mediterranean region it may be worthwhile to account for the reduction in emissions obtained when such techniques are applied.  相似文献   

2.
Prescribed burning is advocated for the sustainable management of fire-prone ecosystems for its capacity to reduce fuel loads and mitigate large high-intensity wildfires. However, there is a lack of comprehensive field evidence on which to base predictions of the benefits of prescribed burning for meeting either wildfire hazard reduction or conservation goals. Australian eucalypt forests are among the very few forest types in the world where prescribed burning has been practised long enough and at a large enough spatial scale to quantify its effect on the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. Nevertheless even for Australian forests evidence of the effectiveness of prescribed burning remains fragmented and largely unpublished in the scientific literature.  相似文献   

3.
Black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) is the dominant tree species in the Canadian province of Québec’s boreal ecosystem, particularly in the black spruce-feathermoss (BSFM) domain (between the 49th and the 52nd parallels). While black spruce is generally well adapted to regenerate after wildfires, regeneration failure can sometimes occur, resulting in the irreversible conversion of closed-crown BSFM to open black spruce-lichen woodlands (OW). With OWs representing approximately 7% (1.6 M ha) of Québec’s BSFM domain, the afforestation of OWs carries significant theoretical potential for carbon (C) sequestration, which has not yet been evaluated. The main objectives of the study were then: (i) to estimate the theoretical C balance of OW afforestation within the closed-crown BSFM domain in Québec’s boreal forest; (ii) to calculate, using the life cycle analysis (LCA) method, all the GHG emissions related to black spruce OW afforestation in the closed-crown BSFM domain of Québec. The CO2FIX v. 3.1 model was used to calculate the biological C balance between the baseline (natural OW of site index 9 at age 50) and afforestation (black spruce plantation of site index 6 at age 25) scenarios, using the best estimates available for all five recommended C compartments (aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, litter, deadwood, and soil). The simulation revealed a biological C balance of 77.0 t C ha−1, 70 years following afforestation, for an average net sequestration rate of 1.1 t C ha−1 year−1. Biological C balance only turns positive after 27 years. When integrating the uncertainties related to both the plantation growth yield and the wildfire disturbance, the average sequestration rate varies between 0.2 and 1.9 t C ha−1 year−1. GHG emissions are 1.3 t CO2 equiv. ha−1 for all afforestation-related operations, which is less than 0.5% of the biological C balance after 70 years. Thus, GHG emissions do not significantly affect the net C balance of the afforestation project simulated. Several recommendations are made, mostly centered on the factors influencing the growth rate of carbon stocks and the impact of natural disturbances, to minimize the range of uncertainties associated to the sequestration potential and maximize the mitigation benefits of an OW afforestation project.  相似文献   

4.
Over the coming decades, climate change will increasingly affect forest ecosystem processes, but the future magnitude and direction of these responses is uncertain. We designed 12 scenarios combining possible changes in tree growth rates, decay rates, and area burned by wildfire with forecasts of future harvest to quantify the uncertainty of future (2010-2080), timber growing stock, ecosystem C stock, and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance for 67 million ha of forest in British Columbia, Canada. Each scenario was simulated 100 times with the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). Depending on the scenario, timber growing stock over the entire land-base may increase by 14% or decrease by 9% by 2080 (a range of 2.8 billion m3), relative to 2010. However, timber growing stock available for harvest was forecast to decline in all scenarios by 26-62% relative to 2010 (a range of 1.2 billion m3). Forests were an annual GHG source in 2010 due to an ongoing insect outbreak. If half of the C in harvested wood was assumed to be immediately emitted, then 0-95% of simulations returned to annual net sinks by 2040, depending on scenario, and the cumulative (2010-2080) GHG balance ranged from a sink of −4.5 Pg CO2e (−67 Mg CO2e ha−1) for the most optimistic scenario, to a source of 4.5 Pg CO2e (67 Mg CO2e ha−1) for the most pessimistic. The difference in total ecosystem carbon stocks between the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in 2080 was 2.4 Pg C (36 Mg C ha−1), an average difference of 126 Tg CO2e yr−1 (2 Mg CO2e yr−1 ha−1) over the 70-year simulation period, approximately double the total reported anthropogenic GHG emissions in British Columbia in 2008. Forests risk having reduced growing stock and being GHG sources under many foreseeable scenarios, thus providing further feedback to climate change. These results indicate the need for continued monitoring of forest responses to climatic and global change, the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies by forest managers, and global efforts to minimize climate change impacts on forests.  相似文献   

5.
  • ? Woody encroachment into grasslands is a worldwide phenomenon. In the Pyrenees, fire has been used as a management tool to transform part of the encroached land to grassland.
  • ? This study aims to compare the spatial patterns of shrub cover 4 y after 4 different fire disturbances (prescribed burning, repeated prescribed burning, wildfire in 20 year-old shrubs and wildfire in 5 year-old shrubs); and also to compare shrub cover after different fire disturbances, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. The study focuses on the shrub Cytisus balansae. Two-dimensional transects (20 × 0.5 m) were established to monitor shrub cover for 4 y after each disturbance type. Autoregressive models and Markov models were used with a Monte Carlo procedure to account for the presence of spatial autocorrelation.
  • ? Shrub cover was greater after prescribed burning than after repeated prescribed burning, and it increased with shrub age before disturbance. Differences in spatial patterns were detected in shrub patch size, with repeated prescribed fires and wildfires reducing shrub patch size by half in comparison with prescribed burning.
  • ? From the management point of view, the effects of repeated prescribed burning were similar to those of a wildfire on reducing shrub cover and shrub patch size.
  •   相似文献   

    6.
    7.
    Forest managers use prescribed fire to reduce wildfire risk and to provide resource benefits, yet little information is available on whether prescribed fires can function as ecological surrogates for wildfire in fire-prone landscapes. Information on impacts and benefits of this management tool on stream and riparian ecosystems is particularly lacking. We used a beyond-BACI (Before, After, Control, Impact) design to investigate the effects of a prescribed fire on a stream ecosystem and compared these findings to similar data collected after wildfire. For 3 years after prescribed fire treatment, we found no detectable changes in periphyton, macroinvertebrates, amphibians, fish, and riparian and stream habitats compared to data collected over the same time period in four unburned reference streams. Based on changes in fuels, plant and litter cover, and tree scorching, this prescribed fire was typical of those being implemented in ponderosa pine forests throughout the western U.S. However, we found that the extent and severity of riparian vegetation burned was substantially lower after prescribed fire compared to nearby wildfires. The early-season prescribed fire did not mimic the riparian or in-stream ecological effects observed following a nearby wildfire, even in catchments with burn extents similar to the prescribed fire. Little information exists on the effects of long-term fire exclusion from riparian forests, but a “prescribed fire regime” of repeatedly burning upland forests while excluding fire in adjacent riparian forests may eliminate an important natural disturbance from riparian and stream habitats.  相似文献   

    8.
    Fuel treatments alter conditions in forested stands at the time of the treatment and subsequently. Fuel treatments reduce on-site carbon and also change the fire potential and expected outcome of future wildfires, including their carbon emissions. We simulated effects of fuel treatments on 140 stands representing seven major habitat type groups of the northern Rocky Mountains using the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS). Changes in forest carbon due to mechanical fuel treatment (thinning from below to reduce ladder fuels) and prescribed fire were explored, as well as changes in expected fire behavior and effects of subsequent wildfire. Results indicated that fuel treatments decreased fire severity and crown fire occurrence and reduced subsequent wildfire emissions, but did not increase post-wildfire carbon stored on-site. Conversely, untreated stands had greater wildfire emissions but stored more carbon.  相似文献   

    9.
    Summary

    We utilized the Boise National Forest's Hazard/Risk model, along with fire history records and fire behavior models, to estimate the current and anticipated levels of large wildfires and associated greenhouse gas and particulate emissions based on the forest condition and wildfire regime on the BNF. The model indicated that the forests at greatest risk of large, intense wildfires are the dense pondero-sa pine-Douglas-fir forests that make up over 1.1 million acres on the forest. We conclude that without an aggressive treatment program to reduce large areas of contiguous heavy fuel loadings the forest will be burned at an annual average rate of about 7.5% of the remaining at-risk forest. Using recent fire data to develop average patterns of intensity in wildfires within this forest type, we estimate that emissions will average around 1 million tons of carbon (C) per year over the next 20 years as the bulk of the ponderosa pine forests are burned. An aggressive treatment program featuring the removal of fuels where necessary, and prescribed fire as a means of re-introducing fire to these ecosystems, would result in a 30-50 percent reduction in the average annual wildfire experienced in the dense ponderosa pine forests, a 14-35% decrease in the average annual C emissions, and a 10-31% decrease in particulate emissions. We argue that the most effective way to curb emissions is with an aggressive treatment program linked to a landscape-based ecosystem management plan. This would have the effect of breaking up large contiguous landscape patterns so that fires become more patchy and diverse in their environmental impact, resulting in significantly reduced emissions as well as improved landscape diversity.  相似文献   

    10.
    We compared the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a log pile (LP) to those from a sand compaction pile (SCP) and from cement deep mixing (CDM) as measures against soil liquefaction, assuming that forest and waste management scenarios influence the GHG (CO2, CH4, and N2O) balance of wood. We found little difference between the LP and SCP methods with respect to GHG emissions from fossil fuel and limestone consumption. However, GHG emissions from the CDM method were seven times higher than emissions from the LP method. In the GHG balance of wood, when the percentage of CH4 emissions from carbon in underground wood was lower than 3.3%, permanent storage in the log achieved greater reductions in GHG emissions than using the waste log as fuel in place of coal or heavy oil. In order to obtain reductions in GHG emissions by replacing SCPs or CDM with LPs, sustainable forest management with reforestation and prevention of CH4 emissions from the underground log are essential. Using reforestation, permanent storage of the log, no CH4 emission from the log, and using logging residues instead of coal, the LP can achieve reductions in GHG emissions of 121 tonnes of CO2 per 100 m2 of improvement area by replacing CDM.  相似文献   

    11.
    There has been only one time-controlled study, in Canada, comparing the occurrence of bryophyte species in forests regenerating after wildfire with that in those regenerating after logging and regeneration burning. Previous work on vascular plants in Tasmanian tall open-forest dominated by Eucalyptus showed that filmy ferns were less common in areas that had been logged and regeneration burned than in areas burned by wildfire two decades after the events, which suggested that hygrophilous species, such as bryophytes, might be vulnerable to this silvicultural system. Bryophytes, vascular plants structural and environmental data were collected from 50 sites, which had been burned in wildfires or clearfelled and burned by prescribed fires 31–39 years previously. Eighteen percent of the vascular plant species for which it was possible to develop a multiple regression model had logging/wildfire as a component, whereas the equivalent figure for bryophytes was 17%. The negative effects of logging were concentrated on the more hygrophilous species, and the positive effects were concentrated on the basal area of tree species and some of the mosses dependent on them. We conclude that wildfire and logging followed by regeneration burning result in vegetation differences that last more than three decades after disturbance, that these differences are no more pronounced for bryophytes than for vascular plants, and that hygrophilous taxa are favoured more by wildfire than logging.  相似文献   

    12.
    Euro-American logging practices, intensive grazing, and fire suppression have increased the amount of carbon that is stored in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. Ex Laws) forests in the southwestern United States. Current stand conditions leave these forests prone to high-intensity wildfire, which releases a pulse of carbon emissions and shifts carbon storage from live trees to standing dead trees and woody debris. Thinning and prescribed burning are commonly used to reduce the risk of intense wildfire, but also reduce on-site carbon stocks and release carbon to the atmosphere. This study quantified the impact of thinning on the carbon budgets of five ponderosa pine stands in northern Arizona, including the fossil fuels consumed during logging operations. We used the pre- and post-treatment data on carbon stocks and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FEE-FVS) to simulate the long-term effects of intense wildfire, thinning, and repeated prescribed burning on stand carbon storage.The mean total pre-treatment carbon stock, including above-ground live and dead trees, below-ground live and dead trees, and surface fuels across five sites was 74.58 Mg C ha−1 and the post-treatment mean was 50.65 Mg C ha−1 in the first post-treatment year. The mean total carbon release from slash burning, fossil fuels, and logs removed was 21.92 Mg C ha−1. FEE-FVS simulations showed that thinning increased the mean canopy base height, decreased the mean crown bulk density, and increased the mean crowning index, and thus reduced the risk of high-intensity wildfire at all sites. Untreated stands that incurred wildfire once within the next 100 years or once within the next 50 years had greater mean net carbon storage after 100 years compared to treated stands that experienced prescribed fire every 10 years or every 20 years. Treated stands released greater amounts of carbon overall due to repeated prescribed fires, slash burning, and 100% of harvested logs being counted as carbon emissions because they were used for short-lived products. However, after 100 years treated stands stored more carbon in live trees and less carbon in dead trees and surface fuels than untreated stands burned by intense wildfire. The long-term net carbon storage of treated stands was similar or greater than untreated wildfire-burned stands only when a distinction was made between carbon stored in live and dead trees, carbon in logs was stored in long-lived products, and energy in logging slash substituted for fossil fuels.  相似文献   

    13.
    In the majority of US political settings wildland fire is still discussed as a negative force. Lacking from current wildfire discussions are estimates of the spatial extent of fire and their resultant emissions before the influences of Euro-American settlement and this is the focus of this work. We summarize the literature on fire history (fire rotation and fire return intervals) and past Native American burning practices to estimate past fire occurrence by vegetation type. Once past fire intervals were established they were divided into the area of each corresponding vegetation type to arrive at estimates of area burned annually. Finally, the First Order Fire Effects Model was used to estimate emissions. Approximately 1.8 million ha burned annually in California prehistorically (pre 1800). Our estimate of prehistoric annual area burned in California is 88% of the total annual wildfire area in the entire US during a decade (1994–2004) characterized as “extreme” regarding wildfires. The idea that US wildfire area of approximately two million ha annually is extreme is certainly a 20th or 21st century perspective. Skies were likely smoky much of the summer and fall in California during the prehistoric period. Increasing the spatial extent of fire in California is an important management objective. The best methods to significantly increase the area burned is to increase the use of wildland fire use (WFU) and appropriate management response (AMR) suppression fire in remote areas. Political support for increased use of WFU and AMR needs to occur at local, state, and federal levels because increasing the spatial scale of fire will increase smoke and inevitability, a few WFU or AMR fires will escape their predefined boundaries.  相似文献   

    14.
    The prominent role of forestry and agroforestry systems in the flux and long-term storage of carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere has increased global interest in these land-use options to stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Preliminary assessments suggest that some agroforestry systems (e.g., agrosilvicultural) can be CO2 sinks and temporarily store C, while other systems (e.g., ruminant-based silvopastoral systems) are probably sources of GHG (e.g., CH4).Agroforestry systems can be significant sources of GHG emissions, especially at low latitudes. Practices such as tillage, burning, manuring, chemical fertilization, and frequent disturbance can lead to emission of CO2, CH4, and N2O from soils and vegetation to the atmosphere. Establishment and management of agroforestry systems incompatible with prevailing edaphic and climatic conditions can accelerate soil GHG emissions. Non-sustainable agroforestry systems are quickly degraded, and woody and herbaceous crops can become significant GHG sources. Silvopastoral systems can result in soil compaction and erosion with significant loss of labile C and N compounds to the atmosphere. Ruminant-based silvopastoral systems and rice paddy agrisilvicultural systems are well documented sources of CH4 which significantly contribute to the global CH4 budget.Early assessments of national and global terrestrial CO2 sinks reveal two primary beneficial attributes of agroforestry systems: 1) direct near-term C storage (decades to centuries) in trees and soils, and, 2) potential to offset immediate GHG emissions associated with deforestation and subsequent shifting agriculture. Within the tropical latitudes, it is estimated that one ha of sustainable agroforestry can provide goods and services which potentially offset 5–20 ha of deforestation. At a global scale, agroforestry systems could potentially be established on 585–1275×106 ha of technically suitable land, and these systems could store 12–228 (median 95) Mg C ha–1 under current climate and edaphic conditions.The US Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.  相似文献   

    15.
    Natural disturbances including wildfire, insects and disease are a growing threat to the remaining late successional forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA. These forests are a cornerstone of the region's ecological diversity and provide essential habitat to a number of rare terrestrial and aquatic species including the endangered northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). Wildfires in particular have reduced the amount of late successional forests over the past decade, prompting land managers to expand investments in forest management in an attempt to slow losses and mitigate wildfire risk. Much of the emphasis is focused specifically on late successional reserves established under the Northwest Forest Plan to provide habitat for spotted owls. In this paper, we demonstrate a probabilistic risk analysis system for quantifying wildfire threats to spotted owl habitat and comparing the efficacy of fuel treatment scenarios. We used wildfire simulation methods to calculate spatially explicit probabilities of habitat loss for fuel treatment scenarios on a 70,245 ha study area in Central Oregon, USA. We simulated 1000 wildfires with randomly located ignitions and weather conditions that replicated a recent large fire within the study area. A flame length threshold for each spotted owl habitat stand was determined using the forest vegetation simulator and used to predict the proportion of fires that resulted in habitat loss. Wildfire modeling revealed a strong spatial pattern in burn probability created by natural fuel breaks (lakes and lava flows). We observed a non-linear decrease in the probability of habitat loss with increasing treatment area. Fuels treatments on a relatively minor percentage of the forested landscape (20%) resulted in a 44% decrease in the probability of spotted owl habitat loss averaged over all habitat stands. The modeling system advances the application of quantitative and probabilistic risk assessment for habitat and species conservation planning.  相似文献   

    16.
    Understanding both historic and current fire regimes is indispensable to sustainable forest landscape management. In this paper, we use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model, LANDIS, to simulate historic and current fire regimes in the Great Xing’an Mountains, in northeastern China. We analyzed fire frequency, fire size, fire intensity, and spatial pattern of burnt patches. Our simulated results show that fire frequency under the current fire scenario is lower than under the historic fire scenario; total area burnt is larger with lower fire intensity under the historic fire scenario, and smaller with higher fire intensity under the current fire scenario. We also found most areas were burned by high intensity fires under the current fire scenario, but by low to moderate fires under the historic fire scenario. Burnt patches exhibit a different pattern between the two simulation scenarios. Large patches burnt by high intensity class fires dominate the landscape under the current fire scenario, and under historic fire scenario, patches burnt by low to moderate fire intensity fires have relatively larger size than those burnt by high intensity fires. Based on these simulated results, we suggest that prescribed burning or coarse woody debris reduction should be incorporated into forest management plans in this region, especially on north-facing slopes. Tree planting may be a better management option on these severely burned areas whereas prescribed burning after small area selective cutting, retaining dispersed seed trees, may be a sound forest management alternative in areas except for the severely burned patches.  相似文献   

    17.
    Changes in land use management practices may have multiple effects on microclimate and soil properties that affect soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Soil surface GHG emissions need to be better quantified in order to assess the total environmental costs of current and possible alternative land uses in the Missouri River Floodplain (MRF). The objective of this study was to evaluate soil GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) in MRF soils under long-term agroforestry (AF), row-crop agriculture (AG) and riparian forest (FOR) systems in response to differences in soil water content, land use, and N fertilizer inputs. Intact soil cores were obtained from all three land use systems and incubated under constant temperature conditions for a period of 94 days using randomized complete block design with three replications. Cores were subjected to three different water regimes: flooded (FLD), optimal for CO2 efflux (OPT), and fluctuating. Additional N fertilizer treatments for the AG and AF land uses were included during the incubation and designated as AG-N and AF-N, respectively. Soil CO2 and N2O emissions were affected by the land use systems and soil moisture regimes. The AF land use resulted in significantly lower cumulative soil CO2 and N2O emissions than FOR soils under the OPT water regime. Nitrogen application to AG and AF did not increase cumulative soil CO2 emissions. FLD resulted in the highest soil N2O and CH4 emissions, but did not cause any increases in soil cumulative CO2 emissions compared to OPT water regime conditions. Cumulative soil CO2 and N2O emissions were positively correlated with soil pH. Soil cumulative soil CH4 emissions were only affected by water regimes and strongly correlated with soil redox potential.  相似文献   

    18.
    Fires have important ecological and socioeconomic effects in fire-prone regions globally. Human-caused wildfires often pose considerable safety and environmental hazards, and can result in sizeable economic losses. This study analyzed the relative importance of temporal, spatial, and socioeconomic factors on occurrence of 52,532 human-caused wildfires in Mississippi that burned during 1991–2005. The probability of human-caused wildfires was modeled using a multinomial logit regression for unordered nominal outcomes. Results indicated that in comparison to incendiary wildfires, other types of human-caused wildfires were most likely to occur in summer. Wildfires caused by equipment use, children, and debris burning were more likely than incendiary wildfires to occur in close proximity to primary roads and railroad tracks, whereas close proximity to population centers increased the relative likelihood of wildfires caused by debris burning. Socioeconomic characteristics also influenced occurrence of many human-caused wildfires. Wildfires caused by children and debris burning were more likely than incendiary wildfires to occur in densely populated areas, whereas wildfires caused by debris burning, equipment use, and related to smoking were more likely in areas with high unemployment rates and large proportions of people below the poverty level. Wildfires related to smoking were also more likely than incendiary wildfires to occur in areas with higher median income. These findings will be helpful in predicting wildfire occurrence as well as developing new wildfire awareness and prevention strategies, allocating resources, and reducing wildfire damage costs in Mississippi and other fire-prone regions.  相似文献   

    19.
    Planting hedgerows on farm field edges can help mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural landscapes by sequestering carbon (C) in woody biomass and in soil. Sequestration rates however, must be assessed in terms of their overall global warming potential (GWP) which must also consider GHG emissions. The objectives of this study were to (1) compare carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from two types of hedgerows and adjacent annual agricultural production fields, and 2) better understand how climate, soil properties and plant species configurations affect hedgerow GHG emissions. At eight study sites in the lower Fraser River delta of British Columbia, we measured emissions from soil in both planted (P-Hedgerow) and remnant hedgerows (R-Hedgerow), as well as in adjacent annual crop production fields over 1 year using a closed-static chamber method. CO2 emissions were 59 % higher in P-Hedgerow than R-Hedgerow, yet there were no significant differences of relative emissions of CH4 and N2O. The environmental variables that explained the variation in emissions differed for the three GHGs. CO2 emissions were significantly correlated with soil temperature. CH4 and N2O and emissions were marginally significantly correlated with soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil water-filled pore space (WFPS), respectively. Emissions were not significantly correlated with hedgerow plant species diversity. While hedgerows sequester carbon in their woody biomass, we demonstrated that it is critical to measure hedgerow emissions to accurately ascertain their overall GHG mitigation potential. Our results show that there are no CO2e emission differences between the management options that plant new diverse hedgerows or conserve existing hedgerows.  相似文献   

    20.
    Successful management of forest fire risk in the Northeastern China boreal forest ecosystem often involves trade-offs between fire dynamics, fire hazard reduction, and fiscal input. We used the LANDIS model to study the effects of alternative fuel reduction strategies on fire dynamics and analyzed cost effectiveness for each fuel reduction strategy based on cost–benefit theory. Five levels of fuel treatment area (2, 4, 6, 8, and 10% for each decade) and two fuel treatment types (prescribed burning [PB] and mechanical treatments in combination with prescribed fire [PR]) under current fire suppression simulated by LANDIS were compared in a 5 × 2 factorial design over a 300-year period. The results showed that PR scenarios are more effective at reducing the occurrence and burn area of catastrophic fires than PB scenarios. In addition, area burned by high intensity fire can be tremendously reduced by increasing low intensity fires with a higher level of treatment area under the various PR scenarios. The cost effectiveness of alternative fuel reduction strategies is strongly dependent on treatment area. In general, PB scenarios will be more cost effective in larger treatment areas and PR scenarios in smaller. We recommend mechanical treatments in combination with prescribed fire, with 4% of landscape treated in each decade (PR04) to be the optimal fuel reduction strategy in the study area based on risk control and cost efficiency analysis. However, the most challenging work in China is to make local forest policy makers and land managers accept the ecological function of fire on forest ecosystems.  相似文献   

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