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为提高当归茎线虫病(Ditylenchus destructor)田间抽样的准确度，用7种聚集指标判断了当归茎线虫病的田间分布型。结果表明，当归茎线虫病在田间呈聚集分布，其中奈曼分布(核心分布)的适合率为100％，嵌纹分布(负二项分布)的适合率为77.8％。理论抽样数量约820株。4种抽样方法差异均不显著，在保证抽样数量合理的情况下，4种方法均可采用。 相似文献
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近年来稻曲病的危害越来越重,为探讨其田间可靠抽样方法及产量损失估算准确性,作者于1987年和1988年在晚稻黄熟期对稻曲病的田间分布型及抽样技术进行了研究。分布型采用聚块指标(M/M),群聚均数(λ)、K 值指数等聚集度指标及 Iwao 的 M—M 回归和 Tay-lor 幂的法则测定。结果表明,当稻曲病发病较轻时分布属聚集型,当发病较重时(病穗率大于45.8%),分布趋于随机型。抽样技术采用平行跳跃式、对角线式、棋盘式三种方法进行 相似文献
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柑桔木虱(Diaphorina Citri Kuw.)卵及若虫空间分布型的研究及其应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
经两年的田间调查资料,用8种检验分布型的方法进行检定,得出柑桔木虱卵和若虫的分布型均呈聚集分布。卵的聚集是由于木虱的习性引起的,若虫的聚集是由于环境的作用引起的。进行资料代换时可用下列公式: 1.y=log(x+1) 2.x=1n(x+1)本文还提出估计田间种群数量时的最适抽样数。 相似文献
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麦红吸浆虫越冬幼虫分布格局与抽样技术再研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
采用研究昆虫种群空间分布格局的经典方法,通过对3块地6个样点各l00个样方连片逐一取样调查、频次分布拟合和5种聚集指标分析表明,麦红吸浆虫越冬幼虫的田间分布格局为聚集分布,最适合奈曼分布型,其次适合负二项分布型.聚集强度因田块和样点而异;聚块面积为10cm×10cm或10cm×20cm,从而从理论上证明了目前小麦吸浆虫调查中所采用的31.85πcm2×20cm或10cm×l0cm×20cm取样单位是合理的.室内模拟"Z”字形、棋盘式、双对角线和平行线4种抽样方法各5、10、15个样方抽样结果比较表明,以双对角线15个样方抽样的代表性最强. 相似文献
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在几年研究姜瘟流行规律的基础上,对姜瘟在田间周年流行时间序列中空间分布型的变化作了比较系统的调查研究。应用7种分析方法进行检验.扩散系数 C 检验结果表明,姜瘟在田间的扩散系数 C 都大于概率为95%的随机分布型 C 值置信区间上限;Taylor 指数法则检验得:S~2=2.4280X~(1·1722);(?)-M 回归方程为:(?)=1.0529+1.2597M,改进后的模型为:(?)=0.7933+1.8084M-0.1492M~2;I 值、Ca 值在整个姜瘟时间序列中始终大于0;(?)值、(?)/M 值始终大于1,这些检验结果表明姜瘟在田间呈聚集分布,但在极少数重病田当病蔸率达60%左右时,分布型呈随机分布,病蔸率达75%以上时,则趋均匀分布.抽样方法比较结果是以采用平行线、棋盘式和 Z 字型取样法为宜.文中还讨论了在不同发病率条件下的理论抽样数. 相似文献
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Evaluation of sampling methods and assessment of the sample size to estimate the weed seedbank in soil, taking into account spatial variability 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
As field sampling is time consuming, it is necessary to develop efficient sampling techniques to obtain accurate estimates of the weed seedbank in soil. The relative efficiency between sampling schemes depends on the spatial variability in weed seed density across agricultural fields. Spatial variability of the weed seed density was characterized by theoretical correlograms. A systematic sampling (square grill) scheme was considered and it was found that, taking into account spatial variability, this sampling scheme was more efficient than simple random sampling. As a result, the sample size can be reduced in comparison with that given in previous studies, where spatial correlation was ignored. The reduction depends on the correlation structure defined as a function of the ratio, τ, between the nugget effect and the sill of the variogram. The maximum reduction of the sample size, without loss of either precision or confidence level corresponds to the case where there is no nugget effect, τ = 0. The opposite extreme case, where the reduction is nil, corresponds to the case of a pure nugget effect τ = 1. The abaci based on given expressions are provided to determine the sample size in species whose spatial pattern can be fitted either to a Poisson or to a negative binomial distribution. 相似文献
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[目的]研究柠条锦鸡儿上的一种重要蛀干害虫柠条绿虎天牛(Chlorophorus caragana Xie & Wang)幼虫空间分布型及抽样技术,揭示其幼虫的行为、习性、活动规律以及确定其在林间的适宜抽样调查方法.[方法]应用分布型指数法和回归模型法,对幼虫的空间分布型进行了研究.[结果]柠条绿虎天牛幼虫的空间分布型属于聚集分布,种群分布的基本成分为个体群.根据Iwao (*m)-m关系的序贯抽样决策模型确定了幼虫的序贯抽样模型公式及最大理论抽样公式,建立了精度分别为0.1和0.2时的理论抽样数表,为野外抽样调查、密度估计及预测预报提供了依据.在幼虫为1、2、3头/株时,累计虫口数的上下限分别为536和134、281和70、197和49.[结论]所建立的理论抽样公式可在天牛幼虫调查、预测预报和防治中推广应用,对生产防治指标的制定及综合防治具有重要意义. 相似文献
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It was found that, in order to estimate the number of weed seeds in soil with a desirable degree of accuracy and confidence level. the sample size depends to large extent on the spatial distribution pattern of the seeds in the soil. The seeds of most weeds found in cultivated soils are distributed according to one of two statistical distributions: Poisson or Negative Binomial. For an acceptable degree of accuracy in estimating the number of seeds in the soil, the sample size must be large, Taking this into account, in this study a practical solution based on a theoretical approach is proposed for the problem of establishing the sample size for a species distributed according to either statistical pattern. In addition, given the sample size, it was possible to determine the estimation error to be expected. This theoretical approach is compared with that proposed in previous studies. Two abaci, based on simple expressions, are provided to determine the sample size, according to the Poisson or the Negative Binormal distribution of the weed species. For Poisson distribution, the sample size is determined (given the desired maximum relative error estimation and the confidence level) as a function of only one parameter: the expected number of seeds per sampling unit m (estimaied by the sample mean). For Negative Binomial distribution, the sample size is determined as a function of two parameters: m and p (estimated according to the relationship between the sample mean and the sample variance). A sample size n nol very different from those given in previous studies is obtained, but the lower limit found for the n -values is lower than that found in these studies. 相似文献
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Invasive pathogens are known to cause major damage to the environments they invade. Effective control of such invasive pathogens depends on early detection. In this paper we focus on sampling with the aim of detecting an invasive pathogen. To that end, we introduce the concept of optimized spatial sampling, using spatial simulated annealing, to plant pathology. It has been mathematically proven (15) that this optimization method converges to the optimum allocation of sampling points that give the largest detection probability. We show the benefits of the method to plant pathology by (i) first illustrating that optimized spatial sampling can easily be applied for disease detection, and then we show that (ii) combining it with a spatially explicit epidemic model, we can develop optimum sample schemes, i.e., optimum locations to sample that maximize the probability of detecting an invasive pathogen. This method is then used as baseline against which other sampling methods can be tested for their accuracy. For the specific example case of this paper, we test (i) random sampling, (ii) stratified sampling as well as (iii) sampling based on the output of the simulation model (using the most frequently infected hosts as sample points), and (iv) sampling the hosts closest to the outbreak point. 相似文献
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Odile Carisse Catherine Meloche William W. Turechek 《European journal of plant pathology / European Foundation for Plant Pathology》2011,130(3):349-365
The spatial pattern of apple scab was characterized using 10 years of disease incidence and lesion density data collected
in managed orchards located in Quebec, Canada. Distributional analyses indicated that scab incidence was better characterized
by the beta-binomial than the binomial distribution in 53 and 65% of the data sets at the leaf and shoot scales, respectively.
Median values of the beta-binomial parameter θ, a measure of small-scale aggregation, were near 0 (0.003 and 0.028) at both
sampling scales, indicating that disease incidence was close to being randomly distributed (low degree of aggregation). For
lesion density, the negative binomial distribution fitted the data better than the Poisson distribution in 86% of the data
sets at the leaf scale. The median value of the index of dispersion k was 0.068, indicating that aggregation was present. For all apple scab measurements, the power law models provided a good
fit to the data. The estimated slope and intercept parameters were significantly greater than 1 and 0, respectively, suggesting
that spatial heterogeneity changed systematically with disease incidence. Results of a covariance analysis showed that spatial
heterogeneity of scab incidence at both scales and lesion density was not dependent upon shoot type but that spatial heterogeneity
of scab incidence and lesion density at the leaf scale was influenced by the sampling period. A hierarchical analysis showed
that scab incidence at the tree scale increased as a saturation-type curve with respect to incidence at the leaf or shoot
scales. A similar relationship was observed for incidences at the shoot and leaf scales. An effective sample size model based
on the binary power law parameters (Madden and Hughes, Phytopathology 89:770–781, 1999) gave the best fit to the leaf and shoot data, respectively. The incidence-lesion density relationship at both scales was
well described by a complementary log-log (CLL) and log transformation model ( Radj2 = 0.97 and Radj2 = 0.94 ) \left( {R_{{adj}}^2 = 0.97\,and\,R_{{adj}}^2 = 0.94} \right) , however, the models tended to underestimate lesion density. The information of the spatial relations of apple scab within
and between hierarchical scales acquired from this study can be used in developing and evaluating practical disease management
strategies and to improve apple scab assessments for fungicide or cultivar susceptibility trials. 相似文献
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The spatial pattern of downy mildew (Pseudoperonospora humuli) on hop (Humulus lupulus) was characterized over 4 years to aid in deriving an appropriate incidence–density relationship. From 472 disease assessments (datasets), discrete distributions were fitted to the datasets to determine aggregation of disease density. Where distributions were able to be fitted, the Poisson distribution fitted 4% of the datasets and the negative binomial distribution fitted 87% of the datasets. Larger‐scale patterns of disease were assessed by autocorrelation and runs analysis; both indicated aggregation of diseased plants was less common than aggregation of disease within plants. Taylor’s power law indicated disease density was aggregated and related to mean disease density in all years. Disease incidence and density were linked by saturation‐type relationships based on the zero term of the negative binomial distribution or an empirical regression. Certain individual datasets were not described well by any incidence–density model, particularly when disease density was greater than about 0·8 diseased shoots per plant with the cultivar Cascade. When applied to 56 validation datasets, 88% of the variation in observed disease incidence was explained by the incidence–density models. Under conditions where sampling would be implemented for disease management, the requisite conditions appear to be in place for a binomial sampling plan for downy mildew. 相似文献
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椰子木蛾Opisina arenosella Walker是近年入侵中国的有害生物,严重为害多种棕榈科植物。为了确定椰子木蛾幼虫在椰子树上的空间分布型及抽样技术,2015年12月采用分层随机抽样法在海南省儋州市对椰子树上的椰子木蛾幼虫进行调查,运用聚集度指标法、Iwao回归方程和Taylor幂法则对椰子木蛾幼虫在椰子树上的空间分布型进行了分析,对聚集均数(λ)进行检验,分析幼虫聚集的原因。结果表明:椰子木蛾的幼虫主要在椰子树的中下部叶片为害,有87.17%的幼虫分布在第3层、第4层和第5层叶片上,其中第4层叶片上幼虫数最多,平均每片大叶上有幼虫(22±7.42)头,占总数的42.62%;椰子木蛾的幼虫在椰子树上呈聚集分布,理论分布型符合负二项分布;其种群聚集是由某些环境作用引起的。根据Iwao的回归关系,确定椰子木蛾幼虫的最适理论抽样公式及序贯抽样公式,建立不同密度下的理论和序贯抽样数表。椰子木蛾幼虫主要分布椰子树中下部叶片上并呈聚集分布,本研究为该虫害的准确抽样调查和防治提供理论依据。 相似文献
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C. F. E. Topp G. Hughes I. M. Nevison A. Butler S. J. P. Oxley N. D. Havis 《Plant pathology》2019,68(6):1179-1187
A programme of field trials for the study of the winter barley–Rhynchosporium commune pathosystem is reported. The associated seedborne disease rhynchosporium leaf scald is regarded as having an important impact on barley yields. The analysis in this study relates to the impact of the seed source (commercial or farm-saved seed) on disease incidence and to the spatial pattern of rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence. Disease incidence data were calculated from field data recorded as disease severity. Mean disease incidence was higher in the crops grown from farm-saved seed than in those grown from commercial seed, although great agronomic significance cannot be attached to this result. The spatial pattern of rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence was characterized in terms of the binary power law (BPL) and was indicative of an aggregated pattern. Programme-wide BPL results were described using a novel phytopathological application of a random coefficients model. These results have application in field sampling for rhynchosporium leaf scald disease. 相似文献
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To improve sampling efficiency and precision in the assessment of white mould (caused by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum) disease incidence on bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), the spatial characteristics of epidemics were characterized in 54 linear transects in 18 bean fields during 2008–2010 in northern Tasmania, Australia. The incidence of diseased pods and plants was assessed prior to harvest. Distributional and correlation‐based analyses indicated the incidence of diseased pods was characterized by a largely random pattern at the individual plant scale, with some patches of similar disease levels on pods occurring at a scale of 1·5 m or greater. Collectively, these results suggested epidemics may be dominated by localized sources of inoculum. Sequential sampling approaches were developed to estimate or classify disease incidence above or below provisional thresholds of 3, 5 and 15% incidence on pods near harvest. Achieving prespecified levels of precision by sequential estimation was possible only when disease incidence on pods was greater than approximately 4% and sampling was relatively intense (i.e. 10 pods evaluated on each of at least 64 plants). Using sequential classification, correct decisions on disease status were made in at least 95% of independent validation datasets after assessment of only 10·1–15 plants, depending on classification threshold and error rates. Outcomes of this research provide the basis for implementing more efficient sampling and management strategies for this disease in Australian fields. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT The spatial pattern of hop powdery mildew was characterized using 3 years of disease incidence data collected in commercial hop yards in the Pacific Northwest. Yards were selected randomly from yards with a history of powdery mildew, and two to five rows were selected for sampling within each yard. The proportion of symptomatic leaves out of 10 was determined from each of N sampling units in a row. The binomial and the beta-binomial frequency distributions were fit to the N sampling units observed in each row and to SigmaN sampling units observed in each yard. Distributional analyses indicated that disease incidence was better characterized by the beta-binomial than the binomial distribution in 25 and 47% of the data sets at the row and yard scales, respectively, according to a log-likelihood ratio test. Median values of the beta-binomial parameter theta, a measure of small-scale aggregation, were near 0 at both sampling scales, indicating that disease incidence was close to being randomly distributed. The variability in disease incidence among rows sampled in the same yard generally increased with mean incidence at the yard scale. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, used to measure large-scale patterns of aggregation, indicated that disease incidence was not correlated between sampling units over several lag distances. Results of a covariance analysis showed that heterogeneity of disease incidence was not dependent upon cultivar, region, or time of year when sampling was conducted. A hierarchical analysis showed that disease incidence at the sampling unit scale (proportion of sampling units with one or more diseased leaves) increased as a saturation-type curve with respect to incidence at the leaf level and could be described by a binomial function modified to account for the effects of heterogeneity through an effective sample size. Use of these models permits sampling at the sampling unit scale while allowing inferences to be made at the leaf scale. Taken together, hop powdery mildew was nearly randomly distributed with no discernable foci, suggesting epidemics are initiated from a well-distributed or readily dispersible overwintering population. Implications for sampling are discussed. 相似文献