共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 453 毫秒
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化州市晚稻稻飞虱主害代发生期及发生程度气象预测模型 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
化州是广东省重要的水稻生产基地。稻飞虱是化州市主要的水稻害虫之一。笔者就6代稻飞虱发生期和发生程度与气象条件之间的关系进行分析研究,利用气象因子预测稻飞虱的发生与发展,以提高稻飞虱发生期和发生程度预测的准确性。应用SPSS分析软件进行逐步回归分析,对广东省化州市1996—2011年的晚稻稻飞虱主害代调查资料和气象观测资料进行分析,筛选出适合的气象预报因子,分别建立晚稻稻飞虱主害代成虫高峰期、若虫高峰期、发生程度和发生面积统计预报模型,用2012年和2013年的资料作为独立样本用于模型效果检验。结果表明,上述预测模型均通过0.01显著性统计检验。将化州市1996—2011年各年度对应的气象观测数据代入各式,模拟值与实测值的逐年变化趋势比较吻合,相对准确率分别为87.5%、93.8%、90.9%、94.2%。对建模内预报值和2012、2013年预报应用效果进行验证,模拟值与实测值基本吻合,可以为该区稻飞虱预测预报服务。可见通过逐步回归分析法对化州市晚稻稻飞虱主害代（6代）的发生期及发生程度进行预测,只要所选择的气象因子与相应的实测值有较高的相关性,就能较准确预测出发生期及发生程度范围;在稻飞虱发生期和发生程度模型建立中,选取的气象因子取了前驱值,所建立的模型更具预测性。 相似文献
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为了验证养分吸收机制模型对作物根系磷吸收模拟的适用性和有效性,以玉米和大豆为研究对象,通过盆栽试验获取15个与土壤、根形态、根生理和水分相关的模型参数,采用NST 3.0软件对玉米和大豆地上磷吸收进行模型模拟和验证。结果表明,随着培养时间的延长,玉米和大豆磷吸收模拟值呈现指数曲线增长的趋势。在45 d的培养期间,玉米具有比大豆更高的磷吸收。对模拟值和实测值进行比较发现,NST模型能够较好地模拟玉米对土壤磷的吸收,但对大豆磷吸收的模拟值偏低。回归分析结果表明,磷吸收模拟值和实测值存在显著的回归关系(P0.05),模拟磷吸收解释了实测磷吸收70.22%的信息,说明模拟的磷吸收在很大程度上能够代表2个种类的磷吸收。总体来说,NST模型能够很好地模拟玉米和大豆的磷吸收。 相似文献
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张掖日光温室最低温度预报模型的主成分回归法构建 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为了有效预报日光温室内部最低温度,减弱低温冷害对设施农业生产的影响。利用张掖日光温室内小气候数据及室外气象观测资料,选取8个影响日光温室最低温度的气象因子进行相关分析和统计检验的多重共线性诊断,应用主成分回归方法建立日光温室最低温度预报模型,并用模型模拟值与温室最低温度实测值比较对模型精度进行检验。结果表明：气象因子X1、X2、X4、X6、X7、X8间存在共线性的问题。通过主成分分析综合提取了3个主成分代替原来的8个变量,建立的温室最低温度预报模型通过α =0.01水平显著性检验,且模型精度检验表明,不同天气条件（晴天、少云—多云、阴天）的模拟值和实测值间R2在0.81~0.89之间,RMSE在0.90~1.16℃之间;不同时段（12月—次年2月）的模拟值和实测值间R2在0.82~0.89之间,RMSE在0.94~1.13℃之间。 相似文献
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基于寒地春小麦AquaCrop与WOFOST模型适应性验证分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
使用AquaCrop模型与WOFOST模型对哈尔滨地区春小麦生长进行模拟,以春小麦的地上生物量和产量及生育期土壤体积含水量为指标,对比分析两个模型的模拟精度。结果表明:使用经过校正的两个模型均能够较为准确地模拟哈尔滨地区春小麦的生长发育情况及产量形成,观测值与模拟值一致性较好,误差均在合理范围内。在非正常年际AquaCrop模型模拟结果与实测结果偏差较大,说明该模型适合于正常年景的作物生长模拟,WOFOST模型适应性更强。在对2011年土壤水分含量的模拟中,两个模型观测值与模拟值总体趋势相同,误差均在合理范围内。总体来说,经过修正和校准后的AquaCrop模型与WOFOST模型均适合寒地春小麦的模拟研究。 相似文献
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油菜生育期动态模拟模型的构建 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在13个不同熟期甘蓝型油菜品种的2年大田试验中,调查不同播期条件下各品种的生育进程及发育状态。依据油菜生理发育时间恒定原理、生理生态理论及各生育阶段与温度、光周期等外部环境关系,采用Logistic曲线描述油菜光周期效应,谐波分析法分析气温昼夜变化,分段正弦指数函数分析热效应和低温春化效应,结合上述因素构建油菜生育期动态模拟模型;确定模型光周期敏感因子、温度敏感性、生理春化时间和角果期因子4个遗传参数;模型的检验分析表明,对不同播期模拟值与观测值的根均方差平均值为2.67 d,对不同品种模拟值与观测值的根均方差平均值为3.74 d;4个遗传参数值对13个油菜品种聚类分析的结果符合品种特性。因此,该模型在一定范围内可准确揭示油菜对温、光的反应规律,具有较强的可靠性和预测性。 相似文献
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在已有的氯离子扩散理论和孔隙分形理论的基础上,提出小孔的孔轴线分形维数表征氯离子扩散的曲折度、大孔的孔表面分形维数修正孔隙率,并推导得到基于孔隙分形修正的氯离子扩散系数模型。通过分析龄期为14 d和28 d不同配比混凝土的基于孔隙分形的氯离子扩散系数模型的计算结果和快速氯离子扩散试验(ASTM C1202)电通量,发现两者之间有良好的线性关系。采用基于孔隙分形修正的氯离子扩散系数代入Fick第二定律的解析解,对试验后各组混凝土中不同扩散深度的氯离子浓度进行拟合,计算结果与实测值吻合情况较好。 相似文献
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为建立蓖麻籽直筒式压榨侧向压力系数的理论公式,以便于合理地确定直筒式压榨机的榨筒参数,通过进行蓖麻籽直筒式单轴压榨试验,获取蓖麻籽压榨坯密度、侧向应力和轴向应力。试验建立的压榨坯密度与轴向应力的关系曲线和金属粉体压制曲线近似,由此利用金属粉体压制公式进行数据拟合,同时利用试验数据建立了侧向压力系数与轴向应力关系曲线。理论公式计算值与试验实测值的最大相对误差为24.74%,平均误差7.56%,证明了基于压榨塑性模型推导过程建立的侧向压力系数理论模型能较好地描述蓖麻籽侧向压力系数变化。 相似文献
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为提高森林蓄积量遥感估测的可靠性及解决自变量间相关性问题，本研究拟采用基于聚类分析与岭估计模型对密云县森林蓄积量进行估测。选取对森林蓄积量有影响的遥感、地形因子作为分类刻画因子进行聚类分析。根据聚类结果选取建模样本，采用岭估计模型对森林蓄积量进行估测，并对其进行适用性评价与精度验证。用离差平方和进行聚集得到3种分类结果，按个数权重抽取建模样本，用30个独立预留样本对模型进行验证。结果表明，预留样本实测值与估测值的R2为0.5311，均方根误差为1.4553，相对偏差为8.9%，实测值为90.942 m3，估测值为82.842 m3。模型适用性一般，估测精度达到91.1%，总体估测精度高。 相似文献
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The impulse responses and other acoustical parameters of Huangpu Teenager Palace were measured. Meanwhile, the acoustical simulation based on software ODEON was carried out as well. The parameters based on computer simulation are compared with the measured ones. This case study shows that the auralization technique based on computer simulation can be used for predicting the acoustical quality of a hall at its design stage. 相似文献
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Although rolling lubrication can decrease rolling forces and energy consumption, it also causes defects such as uneven flange lateral spread and web eccentricity during H-beam rolling process. To solve the problem caused by lubrication, finite element models of H-beam universal rolling were established. The different friction conditions of the contact surface between the rollers and work piece were simulated individually. The mechanism of rolling lubrication impacting on flange spread was studied, and the law of flange lateral spread was gained by analyzing the factors such as friction distribution and metal flow in different situations. Analytical results show that lubrication in rolling process can effectively decrease rolling forces and energy consumption. In the condition that technological parameters except friction are fixed, the flange lateral spread decreases in a linear way as the friction coefficient between flange and roller increases, and the flange lateral spread is more sensitive to the friction of flange's the inner side. Design of lubrication process should take full account of the sensitiveness differences of flange lateral spread to the lubrication conditions of different parts of roller surface. 相似文献
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We discuss the development of coal bed micro structure and the mechanism of enhancing the desorption/diffusion of coalbed methane by ultrasound. We present a mathematical model to describe the desorption/diffusion process of coalbed methane due to the ultrasound heating effect. Two cases of gas release with or without ultrasound fields in coal samples were simulated. We found that the temperature and the micropore diffusion coefficient of the system were improved by ultrasound transferred heat energy, while the dynamic fraction of free gas in pores was enhanced and the dynamic fraction of adsorbed gas was weakened. 相似文献
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气象参数是影响建筑热环境和供暖空调能耗的主要因素之一。基于成都地区1971—2000年共30 a的历史观测数据,生成了建筑能耗模拟软件EnergyPlus所需要的逐时气象数据文件。比较分析了该地区30 a干球温度、太阳辐射等各气象参数月均值的变化,模拟分析了该地区建筑的采暖、制冷及总能耗,利用多元回归建立了建筑能耗与气象参数之间的关系式,并检验了该关系式的准确性。结果表明：成都地区办公建筑能耗变化与各气象参数没有呈现明显的规律性;建筑月总能耗与各气象参数呈纯二次多项式关系,月采暖能耗、月制冷能耗与各气象参数呈交叉二项式关系;建筑月能耗回归模型能够较准确地预测建筑月能耗与各气象参数的关系,且月采暖能耗和月制冷能耗回归模型预测的准确性优于月总能耗模型。 相似文献
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In order to evaluate the air distribution using CFD method scientifically, former evaluation indexes of air distribution are modified by quality weighting method. A numerical simulation model is developed for the calculation and verified by experiment. Indoor air distribution in four operating modes of ceiling mounted indoor unit is simulated with the model. Comparing the existing evaluation indexes and the modified ones, it is found that significant differences in the indexes result in different evaluation results and the modified ones are more reasonable and appropriate. 相似文献
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Coal fired chain grate boiler is retrofitted to coal bed methane boiler. The flow, combustion and NOx emission characteristics of low concentrations methane in the boiler furnace are studied by the numerical simulation and experiments. The results show that the axial velocity reaches the maximum at 0.5 m from the nozzle and declines sharply in the range of -0.4~0.4 m on the width direction. With the heat load increases, the position of highest temperature moves to the rear of furnace and the simulation and experimental results agree well. At the front of the furnace, the obvious bimodal distribution of temperature at low heat load along the width direction is found, but it is a single peak distribution at 100% heat load. At the rear of the furnace, the temperature shows bimodal distribution at all kinds of heat loads. Gas temperature at boiler furnace outlet increases linearly with the increasing of heat load but the experimental results are slightly lower than the simulated results. The NOx is mainly produced in the middle and rear of furnace with high temperature, and the position of NOx peak lags far behind that of temperature peak. With the excess air coefficient increases, the highest furnace temperature and NOx generation increases and then decreases. 相似文献
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With numerical simulation, an analysis is done on the three-dimension air flow in the helix intake port of a diesel engine. The anthors acquire the distribution of characteristic parameters of air in the port, such as velocity, pressure, turbulence kinetic energy, as well as the flow coefficient and rotate moment around the erect axes at the outlet. The results of simulation indicate that the negotiability of the port is very good while the ability of forming eddy can be enhanced, so several improve measures have been put forward. Comparing with simulation results of these measures, it finds out that the method of combining increase the distance between the definition curve of volute cavity and central line of valve protruding support as well as increase the eddy shell angle can obviously enhance the ability of forming eddy, which is an efficient and rational method. 相似文献
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利用常规气象观测、自动站、区域雨量站、卫星、雷达、再分析等资料,对2015年8月发生的一次锋前暖区暴雨进行了综合分析,结果表明：此次暴雨发生在西风槽东移和副高东退南压的环流背景下,以热力条件为主导引发的锋前暖区强对流性降水是此次暴雨产生的主要贡献者;暴雨发生在高空急流右后侧的显著辐散区,700hPa暖式切变线、850hPa冷式切变线、地面干线以及SI<-2℃相重叠的区域;850hPa切变线上的中尺度气旋性涡旋、自动站极大风速风场切变线以及中尺度涡旋是本次暴雨的直接触发系统;由于数值模式850hPa切变线位置预报的偏差,使得中低层流型配置由前倾误导为后倾结构,直接影响了模式热力条件预报的准确性,其结果是增强了西部动力条件而弱化了东部热力条件,最终导致暴雨落区预报偏差;锋前暖区暴雨预报的关键是触发不稳定能量释放的条件,对于此类暴雨应多关注边界层风场的变化,加强新型监测资料的综合分析和应用。 相似文献