共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 328 毫秒
1.
同化数据在气候适宜度区域化模型中的应用 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为了避免站点插值误差,实现高精度、空间分布的CLDAS同化数据在气候适宜度指标区域化中的方便高效应用,本研究利用GIS建模工具,基于内蒙古玉米日尺度动态适宜度计算方法,构造日尺度玉米温度适宜度自动化计算模型,实现了CLDAS小时数据提取、日平均气温计算、"三基点"温度计算、适宜度指标分段函数构建、误差分析等五方面功能。以2016年5月25日CLDAS融合气温产品为例,分析日尺度空间温度适宜度计算模型运行效益,结果表明:CLDAS日平均气温与站点观测值平均偏差0.57℃,CLDAS温度适宜度指标与站点适宜度平均偏差0.02,平均相对误差3.17%,空间拟合精度较高;日尺度温度适宜度指标空间化计算模型实现了适宜度指标的流程化计算,操作简便且方便推广,具有较高的实用性,达到了同化数据在气候适宜度指标区域化中的应用目的。 相似文献
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为进一步探讨河南省暴雪天气过程的成因和机理,分析WRF模式对暴雪过程的模拟效果,提高预报准确率,笔者利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料和常规观测资料,对2018年1月3—4日河南省大范围的暴雪天气过程进行诊断分析,并对WRF模式模拟结果进行分析。结果表明,高空槽、低层的切变和急流、地面冷空气是这次暴雪的主要影响系统。水汽条件好,水汽通量低层辐合,高层辐散,伴有较强的上升运动,更有利于暴雪天气的发生。WRF模式模拟的降雪量范围和强度都与实况较为一致,表明模式对暴雪天气的预报有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
3.
城市热岛效应对平均气温序列的影响——以淮河中游县级城镇为例 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
为了充分考虑县级城市热岛效应对台站气温序列资料的影响,选取位于淮河中游的不发达县级城镇的台站进行分析,将霍邱国家一般气象站、寿县国家基准气候站（参照站）作为研究对象,基于1965—2010年的平均气温观测资料,采用线性拟合、累积距平等方法,分析了城市热岛效应对霍邱站平均气温序列的影响。结果表明,霍邱站气温资料从1994年开始明显受城市化进程影响。霍邱站1995—2010年热岛效应值介于0.30℃~0.97℃之间;热岛效应强度随年代的推后而呈增强的趋势,并呈现出季节性变化：春季最强盛,秋季次之,冬夏2季最弱。因此,城市热岛效应对淮河中游的县级城市气温序列的影响不容小视。 相似文献
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气候变暖已对建筑全生命周期的运行状况产生了不可忽略的影响,准确评估气候变化下的建筑能耗对建筑方案设计和既有建筑的节能改造具有重要意义。进行气候变化下建筑能耗的精确预测,必须拥有未来的逐时气象数据。以寒冷地区北京和夏热冬暖地区广州为研究对象,将挑选的两个城市典型气象年为基线气候,结合全球模式下的预测气象数据,应用变形法修正TMY的气象参数,得到直至本世纪末的10个节点年逐时气象文件,并进行了全年能耗模拟,预估了两个城市的办公建筑在气候变化下建筑能耗的变化趋势。结果表明：在两种预测排放情景下,干球温度、含湿量和太阳辐射均呈增加趋势;北京采暖能耗显著降低、制冷能耗增加,总能耗减少,广州采暖能耗降低、制冷能耗显著增加,总能耗增加。 相似文献
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研究旨在建立广西温度、降水、日照和综合要素的日尺度适宜度模型,应用于广西柑橘气候适宜度等级分类,以及历年气候适宜度时空分布特征进行分析。利用广西87个国家自动气象站1961—2018年逐日气象资料和柑橘生长气候习性,采用模糊数学方法建立模型,并利用典型年份、阶段异常天气进行模型验证。结果表明,模型的逐日气象要素回归拟合效果较好,决定系数均在0.89以上;各要素适宜度指标的分类方法合理,广西大部分地区均属于柑橘种植适宜区,符合实际情况。模型的尺度精细,定量评估具有良好的效果;能较好地描述柑橘气候适宜度随季节和阶段性的极端高温、低温、干旱、暴雨等异常天气变化;广西柑橘各气象要素适宜度空间分布特征受地域气候影响明显,热量条件充足甚至过多,而降水和日照在一些地区不足,柑橘种植选址应更多考虑降雨和日照因素。 相似文献
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4种城市绿地类型缓解热岛效应比较 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
为了研究城市不同绿地类型缓解热岛效应的效果大小,在长沙市城区选取4种典型绿地类型的样地及其相邻裸地,进行实地观测获取温度和湿度数据,通过分析,结果表明：降温效应和增湿效应都是乔木林>乔灌林>灌丛>草地;乔木林、乔灌林、灌丛和草地的温度变化指数分别是7.32、6.59、5.33和4.10,湿度变化指数依次为16.87、13.23、9.42和7.61。结论表明：不同类型的绿地因其内部结构和垂直结构不同,降低城市热岛效应的强度不一样,长沙市4种典型绿地类型减缓城市热岛效应强度的大小排序是乔木林>乔灌林>灌丛>草地;为减缓城市热岛效应的影响,在城市绿地建设中,长沙市应加大乔木林、乔灌林建设的面积,减少灌丛和草地建设面积。 相似文献
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基于国家气候中心第二代模式业务系统(DERF2.0)资料,开展了黑龙江省初夏(6月)1983～2013年的历史回报检验工作。通过经验正交分解法(EOF)和最优子集回归(OSR)分析模式降尺度解释应用的预测结果,利用短期气候预测综合业务评分PS以及距平相关系数ACC等方法评估模式降尺度对黑龙江省初夏降水的预测性能,并且与模式直接预测要素结果进行对比。结果发现,DERF2.0模式降尺度解释应用的预测要明显好于模式直接预测要素。此外,DERF2.0模式降尺度解释应用对2004年和2009年的极端旱涝年预测也有一定的技巧。 相似文献
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农田土壤有机碳演变模型的研究进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
土壤碳库是陆地生态系统的最大碳库。以Century、RothC和DNDC模型为例,对这3大模型的模拟原理和应用现状进行了概述,总结了其存在的问题,并指出未来的发展方向一方面应加强模型的验证以提高模拟精度,另一方面应与3S技术相结合建立大尺度数据库以扩大模拟范围。 相似文献
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在全球变暖的大背景下,干旱已成为本溪地区主要气象灾害之一。本研究利用VB 6.0和Access数据库管理等现代技术,开发建成了“本溪地区干旱监测评估系统”。该系统包括气候资料数据库子系统、气候影响客观评价子系统、干旱指标库、干旱灾害历史数据库查询子系统、干旱产品服务子系统5个部分,能够进行大气干旱Z 指数和农业干旱β 指数模型的自动计算,可实现对全地区干旱监测、分析和评估等业务工作的支持,为大气和农业等领域的干旱监测评估工作提供丰富的图形、表格和文本等数据信息,为农业生产决策提供科学的依据。 相似文献
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太阳辐射在城市峡谷内形成多重反射,加剧城市热岛效应。峡谷太阳辐射吸收量与城市结构、墙体和路面反射率及时间显著相关。建立城市峡谷反射率数值模型,评估提高路面反射率能否有效提高城市峡谷反射率,并探讨反射路面对邻近建筑墙体的反射与散射辐射的影响。通过现场观测数据验证数值模型的可靠性。研究结果表明:建筑物高度与路面宽度之比(纵横比)是城市峡谷反射率最关键的影响因素,当峡谷纵横比<1.0时,路面反射作用较为明显;而且,相对于冬季,夏季时峡谷内反射路面能向邻近建筑物反射更多的额外散射辐射,而峡谷走向对额外散射辐射的影响较小。当峡谷纵横比<1.0时,建议采用反射路面缓解城市热岛。 相似文献
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The relationship between urban form layout and Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity response mechanism was quantified and the parameter curves was studied. Large-scale analysis and calculation software such as ArcGIS and MATLAB are used and extract Urban Form and inversed UHI, based on the seven times summer TM images of Tianjin between 1992 and 2013. The results show that: Firstly, the double indicators measure for the UHI intensity was proposed, that is, highest UHI temperature value and total UHI warming. Secondly, the UHI intensity increases with the expansion of urban form area; and in general, gross area of urban form is positively correlated with highest UHI temperature value and total UHI warming.Thirdly, dispersion of the urban form and contagion index are not apparently involved with highest UHI temperature, but correlated with total UHI warming.Fourthly, plague area has a positive relationship with UHI intensity; with a single plague over 50 km 2, highest UHI temperature value will grow rapidly by the linear along with the increase of plague and a quadric curve correlation between plague area and total UHI warming is obtained. Fifthly, there was a negative relationship between perimeter-to-area ratio of the plaque and UHI intensity and a S curve correlation between perimeter-to-area ratio of the plaque and highest UHI temperature value. When the ratio is between 0.005 to 0.04, a quadric curve correlation will be formed between perimeter-to-area ratio and highest UHI temperature value. Finally, urban form fractal dimension is positively relevant with UHI intensity and in a linear relationship with highest UHI temperature and a cubic curve relationship with Total UHI warming. 相似文献
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生态理念指导下的城市总体规划探析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
综述了生态理念在国内外城市规划领域的发展过程以及实践活动,指出中国几十年来城市规划中存在忽视生态承载力研究、城市生态格局的构建和城市生态工业合理布局3个有关生态方面的问题,探讨了生态承载力的有限性、生态承载力弹性和生态足迹在城市总体规划中的应用,在景观生态格局理论和国内外城市绿地布局实践基础上总结了城市绿地布局的5种模式,在城市生态工业布局中比较深入的分析和探讨了都市型工业和一般工业在城市规划中的布局问题。 相似文献
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Crop growth simulation models are increasingly used for regionally assessing the effects of climate change and variability on crop yields. These models require spatially and temporally detailed, location-specific, environmental (weather and soil) and management data as inputs, which are often difficult to obtain consistently for larger regions. Aggregating the resolution of input data for crop model applications may increase the uncertainty of simulations to an extent that is not well understood. The present study aims to systematically analyse the effect of changes in the spatial resolution of weather input data on yields simulated by four crop models (LINTUL-SLIM, DSSAT-CSM, EPIC and WOFOST) which were utilized to test possible interactions between weather input data resolution and specific modelling approaches representing different degrees of complexity. The models were applied to simulate grain yield of spring barley in Finland for 12 years between 1994 and 2005 considering five spatial resolutions of daily weather data: weather station (point) and grid-based interpolated data at resolutions of 10 km × 10 km; 20 km × 20 km; 50 km × 50 km and 100 km × 100 km. Our results show that the differences between models were larger than the effect of the chosen spatial resolution of weather data for the considered years and region. When displaying model results graphically, each model exhibits a characteristic ‘fingerprint’ of simulated yield frequency distributions. These characteristic distributions in response to the inter-annual weather variability were independent of the spatial resolution of weather input data. Using one model (LINTUL-SLIM), we analysed how the aggregation strategy, i.e. aggregating model input versus model output data, influences the simulated yield frequency distribution. Results show that aggregating weather data has a smaller effect on the yield distribution than aggregating simulated yields which causes a deformation of the model fingerprint. We conclude that changes in the spatial resolution of weather input data introduce less uncertainty to the simulations than the use of different crop models but that more evaluation is required for other regions with a higher spatial heterogeneity in weather conditions, and for other input data related to soil and crop management to substantiate our findings. Our results provide further evidence to support other studies stressing the importance of using not just one, but different crop models in climate assessment studies. 相似文献
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Uncertainty of crop yield simulation would be affected by weather input data prepared from different sources of climate datasets. Although regional climate data at a high spatial resolution would be useful for the impact assessment of climate change on crop production, little effort has been made to characterize the uncertainty associated with such climate data in terms of crop yield simulations. The objectives of this study were to compare climate scenario data products obtained from a series of downscaling processes and to identify an overall pattern of uncertainty in these climate data in terms of crop yield simulation. Regional climate scenario data from 2011 to 2014 had a spatiotemporal pattern of uncertainty, which differed by meteorological variables and spatial resolution. Overall, the uncertainty of daily minimum temperature was greater than that of maximum temperature. Daily minimum temperature also had relatively greater uncertainty in an early season of crop production, which could result in the cumulative impact on the uncertainty of crop yield simulations. For the uncertainty of climate data at different spatial resolution, climate data at higher spatial resolution, e.g. 1 km, tended to have lower uncertainty than data at resolution of 12.5 km did. Still, the uncertainty of regional climate data was relatively similar between data at resolution of 12.5 km and 1 km in major rice production areas in Korea except in areas near Seosan. This merits further studies to examine actual differences in projected crop yields using regional climate scenario data in the future and to assess the impact of uncertainty associated with regional climate data on crop yield simulation. 相似文献
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In this paper, a deep research on the method of urban lighting planning is carried out in combination with the understanding from the urban lighting engineering practice, the method of master and detailed urban lighting plannings in mountain region is proposed, and the implementation of green lighting project through rational urban lighting planning is realized. 相似文献
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The 3D urban planning information system has been the focus topic in urban palnning management. In this paper,the related development of 3D urban planning is reviewed and the development object,data acquisition, system application level and three important characters of 3D urban planning information system have been also discussed. Thus, a system framework iseatablished. Finally,several primary problems are put forward and thought to be resolved to improve the practicability of 3D urban planning information system over large scale. 相似文献
18.
DSSAT模型在中国农业与气候变化领域应用进展 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
为了掌握农业转移支持决策系统(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT)模型在国内农业与气候变化领域的研究进展,更好地让模型在今后气候变化对农业生产影响评估和适应研究中应用,本文以近年来国内的研究和实践为基础,通过梳理模型应用的相关研究案例、方法和成果,从DSSAT 模型本地化适用性验证、数据库构建、参数订正和优化方案、气候变化影响评估及适应的应用等方面全面总结了模型的应用进展。结果表明：DSSAT模型在我国应用比较广泛,包括不同地区和不同作物之间;利用DSSAT模型研究气候变化对农业生产的影响的研究较多,研究结果比较丰富。但模型在应用中存在研究方法和结果比较分散、应用的作物种类有限、数据需求量大而实验数据有限等问题,这些都需要在今后的研究中不断完善解决。 相似文献
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光景观在城市带状绿地中的应用研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
以“光”作为景观要素,探讨城市带状绿地中如何营造良好的景观光环境。目前对园林景观中的光环境,社会及业内已开始逐渐关注,但对特定的城市绿地类型中光景观的应用几乎没有系统的论述。笔者以丽水市大溪江滨江景观带为例,对城市带状绿地光环境营造的规划原则和设计方法进行初步总结和探讨,指出城市带状绿地光景观规划应基于掌握规划对象所在地光气候条件及解读规划对象属性的基础上,遵循功能性、连续性和整体性原则,设计时可使用建构空间、引导流线;突出焦点、塑造形象;烘托氛围、营造意境;彰显四季,见证朝暮等具体方法。通过研究,以期为光景观与城市绿地的和谐相融提供一定的启迪。 相似文献