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黄河口鱼类底拖网调查采样断面数的优化 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
优化调查采样设计方案,利用有限的调查成本获取准确可靠的渔业资源数据,对于开展独立于渔业的科学调查十分重要。根据2013年8、10月和2014年2、5月在黄河口及其邻近水域进行的渔业资源底拖网调查数据,选取短吻红舌鳎(Cynoglossus joyneri)和矛尾虾虎鱼(Chaeturichthys stigmatias)作为目标鱼种,以其平均个体体长、平均个体体重为调查采样优化目标,利用计算机模拟方法对黄河口水域的渔业资源底拖网调查生物学数据进行再抽样,以平均体长、平均体重估计值的相对估计误差(REE)、相对偏差(RB)和变异系数(CV)作为优化评价指标,对基于整群抽样方法的黄河口及邻近海域的调查采样断面数进行优化。结果表明,对于目标鱼种的平均体长、平均体重指标,模拟估计值的REE、RB和CV均随着断面数的减少不断增加,调查断面数少于3时,各指标的变化幅度较大。断面数由5减少至3,REE值平均增加2%,RB值平均增加0.13%,CV值平均增加1.95%,同时渔获量降低近40%。因此,断面数为3可视为黄河口及邻近海域可接受的最优调查断面数。 相似文献
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基于科学调查与渔业生产数据的山东近海口虾蛄生长参数估算 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
渔业资源评估一般有两种数据来源,即科学调查数据和渔业生产数据;前者需要定期出海采样,耗时长且费用高,后者易于获取但样本代表性存在问题。本研究以山东近海口虾蛄为例,基于电子体长频率方法(ELEFAN)评估了口虾蛄的生长参数,采用bootstrap 重抽样方法比较了基于渔业生产数据与科学调查数据分析结果的差异,旨在探讨渔业生产数据在估算生长参数上的准确性。结果表明,科学调查数据估算得到的口虾蛄von Bertalanffy季节性生长方程中的极限体长L∞=193.16 mm, K=0.62,生产数据估算得到的口虾蛄极限体长L∞=171.70 mm,K=0.67;非参数检验表明基于两种采样方法所求得的口虾蛄的极限体长L∞呈现显著性差异, K 和“夏季点”ts 均呈现不显著性差异。本研究表明,渔业生产数据在一定程度上能够反映生物的生长状况,对K 和ts 的估算与科学调查数据估算的结果较为接近,但对极限体长的估算误差较大。因此口虾蛄生长研究需要依靠科学调查数据的支持,同时渔业生产数据可以作为辅助信息。 相似文献
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Alexandre Schickele Eric Goberville Boris Leroy Gregory Beaugrand Tarek Hattab Patrice Francour Virginie Raybaud 《Fish and Fisheries》2021,22(1):212-225
The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate‐induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate‐related local extinctions were expected in the south‐eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi‐SDM, multi‐GCM, multi‐RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change. 相似文献
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Yasutoki Shibata Takashi Matsuishi Hiroto Murase Koji Matsuoka Takashi Hakamada Toshihide Kitakado Hiroyuki Matsuda 《Fisheries Science》2013,79(4):559-568
The aim of this study was to examine the effects of stratification of the survey region on the performance of species distribution models (SDMs) described by generalized linear models or generalized additive models when estimating school abundance by using a line transect survey. True covariates that define spatial school distribution are not always obtainable explanatory variables. When the true covariates differ from explanatory variables in the model, the explanatory variables are determined to be misspecified. We evaluated the performance of SDMs in abundance estimation with misspecified covariates by using dummy datasets for which the true abundance was known. Simulated replicates of spatial distributions of a whale school and sighting data were generated from possible scenarios motivated by the spatial school distribution of Antarctic minke whales Balaenoptera bonaerensis. This distribution was obtained from the Japanese Whale Research Program under Special Permit in the Antarctic. Our results showed that the relative bias of the abundance estimators was large when covariates were misspecified and a survey region was stratified. Although stratification of the survey region is intended to produce a conventional line transect estimator with a smaller variance than that of non-stratified survey region, it also acts to increase the bias of the abundance estimate obtained from SDMs. 相似文献
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Fishery-dependent catch per unit effort (CPUE) data have been used as an abundance index (AI) in fish stock assessments. However, fishery-dependent CPUE data are influenced not only by changes in fish abundance but also by other factors, such as the choice or restrictions of fishing grounds to operate. Accordingly, bias may arise in AIs due to a lack of data from unfished or rarely fished areas. To improve the accuracy of AI estimates, spatially arranged CPUE datasets from both trawl fisheries and research vessel surveys in the East China Sea were concurrently analyzed in the present study using a multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) model. Survey datasets complemented information on stock status in the fishing areas where fishery-dependent datasets were limited. As a result, the combined use of datasets from both sources effectively improved the accuracy of estimates of AIs and the spatial distribution of the population density of each fish species. 相似文献
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Performance comparison of traditional sampling designs and adaptive sampling designs for fishery-independent surveys: A simulation study 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
We compared the performance of two traditional sampling designs with three adaptive sampling designs using simulated data based on fishery-independent surveys for yellow perch in Lake Erie. Traditionally, the fishery-independent survey has been conducted with a stratified random sampling design based on basin and depth strata; however, adaptive sampling designs are thought to be more suitable for surveying heterogeneous populations. A simulation study was conducted to compare these designs by examining the accuracy and precision of the estimators. Initially in the simulation study, we used bias, variance of the mean, and mean squared error (MSE) of the estimators to compare simple random sampling (SRS), stratified random sampling (StRS), and adaptive two-phase sampling (ATS). ATS was the best design according to these measurements. We then compared ATS, adaptive cluster sampling (ACS), adaptive two-stage sequential sampling (ATSS), and the currently used stratified random sampling design. ATS performed better than the other two approaches and the current stratified random sampling design. We concluded that ATS is preferable for yellow perch fishery-independent surveys in Lake Erie. Simulation study is a preferred approach when we seek an appropriate sampling design or evaluate the current sampling design. 相似文献
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Luca Ceriola Paolo Accadia Piero Mannini Fabio Massa Nicoletta Milone Nicola Ungaro 《Fisheries Research》2008,92(2-3):255-267
The state of demersal fishery in the Southern Adriatic Sea (GFCM-GSA 18, Central Mediterranean), years 1996–2003, from a biological, social and economic point of view was analysed using 47 indicators: 22 biological indicators obtained from fishery-independent data through yearly experimental bottom trawl surveys (“Medits” Programme), and 25 socio-economic indicators estimated from fishery-dependent data, available from the monitoring system of the Italian Institute for Economic Research on Fisheries and Aquaculture (IREPA). Biological indicators were applied for “single-species” (Eledone cirrhosa, E. moschata, Illex coindetti, Merluccius merluccius, Mullus barbatus, Nephrops norvegicus, Parapenaeus longirostris, Raja clavata, Zeus faber) and for “multi-species” analysis. Economic indicators describing economic performance, productivity, costs and prices, and the overall economic sustainability of fishery were estimated. Social indicators and a general indicator summarising social sustainability were also considered. Indicators’ values were displayed using the Traffic Light system. Both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent indicators highlighted a progressive decline of the trawl fishery system in the GSA 18. This decline was mainly related to the ongoing depletion of the traditional fishery target species (mostly long-living, late-maturing species) partially replaced by the increase of traditional accessory species (generally short-living species), as well as to the reduction of productivity and increasing costs. The whole procedure was proposed as a contribution to the identification and applicability of bio-economic indicators for fishery management purposes. 相似文献
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黄河口渔业资源底拖网调查采样断面数对资源量指数估计的影响 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
为查明采样强度对多种类渔业调查中资源量指数估计的影响,实验根据2013年8月、10月和2014年2月、5月黄河口渔业资源底拖网调查数据,选取短吻红舌鳎、方氏云鳚、矛尾虾虎鱼、枪乌贼、口虾蛄、日本蟳和小型鳀鲱鱼类为调查目标,利用计算机模拟方法,以相对估计误差(REE)、相对偏差(RB)、变异系数(CV)和准确度变化率(ACR)等为评价指标,研究了调查样本量对不同种类资源量指数估计的影响。结果显示,各种类资源量指数估计的REE、CV和ACR随断面数增加均逐渐降低并趋于稳定;除在断面数3减到1时,日本蟳、口虾蛄和方氏云鳚等个别种类RB绝对值增大外,其他RB不存在一致性的增大或减小趋势。研究表明,由于不同种类的分布存在时空差异,不同种类需要的调查断面数不同;当目标种类数量空间分布变异较小时,减少调查断面数对采样精确度影响较小,反之则需要更多调查断面数。对于多种类渔业资源调查,需要综合权衡各目标种类来确定最适调查断面数。 相似文献
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- To facilitate conservation planning, there is a need for improved confidence in forecasts of climate change impacts on species distributions. Towards that end, there have been calls for the development of process-based models to test hypotheses concerning the mechanisms by which temperature shapes distribution and to corroborate forecasts of correlative models.
- Models of temperature-dependent growth (TDG) were developed for two Australian riverine blackfishes with disjunct longitudinal distributions: Gadopsis marmoratus (occupies lower, warmer elevations) and Gadopsis bispinosus (occupies higher, cooler elevations). The models were used to (a) predict blackfish monthly and annual growth dynamics under current and future climate scenarios within different elevation bands of their current distribution, and (b) test the hypothesis that, under the current climate, the distributions of each species would be positively correlated with predicted TDG.
- Increases in mean annual growth were forecast for both species under all warming scenarios, across all elevation bands. Both species currently occupy annual habitat temperatures below those optimal for growth. Under certain warming scenarios, the predicted increases in annual growth belie forecasts of within-year dynamics that may interact with the phenology of blackfish to impair recruitment.
- There was not a significant positive linear relationship between predicted TDG and observed abundance among river segments for either species. Both species were strongly under-represented where annual growth rates were forecast to be optimal and over-represented where growth rates were forecast to be intermediate.
- Confidence in forecasts of climate change impacts based on correlative models will increase when those forecasts are consistent with a mechanistic understanding of how specific drivers (e.g. water temperature) affect processes (e.g. growth). This process-based study revealed surprises concerning how future climates may affect fish growth dynamics, showing that although the blackfish distributions are correlated with temperature the temperature-dependent mechanisms underpinning that correlation require further investigation.
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Bryony L. Townhill Elena Couce Jonathan Tinker Susan Kay John K. Pinnegar 《Fish and Fisheries》2023,24(5):848-862
Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial fish and shellfish. Changes are anticipated everywhere, including in the seas of many important fishing nations. Species turnover will in turn result in both opportunities and threats to fishing industries. To determine the impacts for northwest European shelf fisheries, we project changes for 49 commercially important fish and shellfish species using an ensemble of five ecological niche models and three different downscaled climate change projections. The habitat suitability and latitudinal shifts projected from the recent past (1997–2016) to two futures (2030–2050; 2050–2070) were calculated for waters around the United Kingdom. Of the species examined, around half were projected to have consistently more suitable habitat in the future, including European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae), sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Alosidae) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Engraulidae). Conversely, it is suggested that UK waters will become less suitable for species including Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) and saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae). Our comprehensive approach using a number of models and climate change scenarios shows that while there are differences in the magnitude of change between models, and while some models perform better for certain species compared with others, overall, the general trends in habitat suitability and abundance are robust across models and climate scenarios. This emphasises the value in using more than one modelling technique with different climate scenarios (i.e., an ensemble approach) to capture the uncertainty or agreement around climate change projections. 相似文献
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本研究以2012-2013年长江口鱼类资源密度分布为基础,通过动态生物气候分室模型(DBEM)预估了不同气候变化情景下(IPCC,RCP2.6、RCP6.0和RCP8.5)长江口鱼类资源密度增量分布的变化.在RCP2.6、RCP6.0和RCP8.5这3种气候变化情景下,鱼类资源密度增量、底层鱼类资源密度增量随着时间推移均呈递增趋势,且递增程度和增量重心分布范围随着温室气体排放的增加而扩大(RCP8.5＞RCP6.0＞RCP2.6).鱼类资源密度增量重心主要分布在长江口崇明岛沿岸水域,长江口外侧水域资源密度增量相对较低,并且资源密度增量重心有向南迁移的趋势. 相似文献
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Non‐native marine species in north‐west Europe: Developing an approach to assess future spread using regional downscaled climate projections 
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下载免费PDF全文 Bryony Townhill John Pinnegar Jonathan Tinker Miranda Jones Stephen Simpson Paul Stebbing Stephen Dye 《水产资源保护:海洋与淡水生态系统》2017,27(5):1035-1050
1. Climate change can affect the survival, colonization and establishment of non‐native species. Many non‐native species common in Europe are spreading northwards as seawater temperatures increase. The similarity of climatic conditions between source and recipient areas is assumed to influence the establishment of such species, however, in a changing climate those conditions are difficult to predict. 2. A risk assessment methodology has been applied to identify non‐native species with proven invasive qualities that have not yet arrived in north‐west Europe, but which could become problematic in the future. Those species with the highest potential to become established or be problematic have been taken forward, as well as some that may be economically beneficial, for species distribution modelling to determine future potential habitat distributions under projected climate change. 3. In the past, species distribution models have usually made use of low resolution global environmental datasets. Here, to increase the local resolution of the distribution models, downscaled shelf seas climate change model outputs for north‐west Europe were nested within global outputs. In this way the distribution model could be trained using the global species presence data including the species' native locations, and then projected using more comprehensive shelf seas data to understand habitat suitability in a potential recipient area. 4. Distribution modelling found that habitat suitability will generally increase further north for those species with the highest potential to become established or problematic. Most of these are known to be species with potentially serious consequences for conservation. With caution, a small number of species may present an opportunity for the fishing industry or aquaculture. The ability to provide potential future distributions could be valuable in prioritizing species for monitoring or eradication programmes, increasing the chances of identifying problem species early. This is particularly important for vulnerable infrastructure or protected or threatened ecosystems. 相似文献
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鱼类体长-体重关系参数估计的准确与否影响进一步的渔业资源评估和管理。不同采样设计获得的生物学数据,对鱼类体长-体重关系参数b估计可能会有一定的影响。本文基于2013-2014年在黄河口水域调查获得的矛尾虾虎鱼(Chaemrichthys stigmatias)体长、体重数据,采用计算机模拟重抽样方法,选取相对估计误差和相对偏差两个指标,比较了不同采样设计对估计矛尾虾虎鱼体长-体重关系参数b的影响。结果表明,增加样本量可有效提高其体长-体重关系参数b的估计精度。不同季节数据对参数估计精度具有不同影响,应用多季节调查采样数据估计参数精度往往优于单季节采样。夏季数据对矛尾虾虎鱼体长-体重关系参数估计尤为重要。方案9(夏-冬季方案)在样本量达到540尾时,相对估计误差REE为2.08%,相对偏差RB的绝对值为0.71%,在相同样本量下该设计方案表现最好。在估计黄河口矛尾虾虎鱼等鱼类体长-体重关系参数时,应保证获得一定样本量的对参数估计具有较大影响的季节的生物学数据。 相似文献
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PENN LLOYD ÉVA E. PLAGÁNYI SCARLA J. WEEKS MARITES MAGNO‐CANTO GYULA PLAGÁNYI 《Fisheries Oceanography》2012,21(1):78-94
The impacts of ocean warming resulting from recent climate change on the abundance patterns of marine species have been well documented in temperate seas of the northern hemisphere, but the impacts of a widening tropical belt are largely unexplored. Using measurements of sea surface temperature and spear‐fishing records for 84 species spanning a 19‐yr period, we examined the effects of ocean warming on a sub‐tropical reef‐fish community on the southeastern coast of Africa. Corresponding with a 0.46°C increase in average sea surface temperature between the time periods 1989–97 and 2002–2007, the ratio of species showing an overall decrease/ no change/increase in abundance was 1 : 3 : 2 among six species at the northern limits of their distribution in the region (temperate species), 1 : 15 : 6 among 22 broadly distributed species, and 1 : 5 : 9 among 15 species at the southern limits of their distribution (tropical species). Also, the relative abundance of temperate species as a whole decreased by 10–13% whereas that of tropical species increased by 9%, and broadly distributed species showed little change. Average species richness and diversity increased 33 and 15% respectively between the two time periods. These results are broadly consistent with a predicted poleward shift in species ranges and a predicted increase in species richness and diversity with increasing sea temperature. Our findings confirm that large‐scale climate change causing a widening of the tropical belt and subsequent ocean warming is having a profound impact on marine species abundance patterns and community composition at a local scale in the sub‐tropics. 相似文献