共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
S. Watari M. Murata T. Baba S. Oda M. Ishitani K. Mishiro Y. Uchida 《Fisheries Management and Ecology》2014,21(6):470-479
The daggertooth pike conger, Muraenesox cinereus (Forsskål), has become an important fish resource in the western Seto Inland Sea, Japan, since the 1990s. However, introducing sustainable fisheries resource management for this species is difficult in this region because stock assessments have not been performed, and official fisheries statistics for this stock were discontinued after 2007. This study used existing limited data sets to compile the first report for fisheries resource management for this M. cinereus stock. Yield‐per‐recruit analyses showed that increasing fishing pressure above current levels would provide only a minimal increase in expected catch levels. Hence, the current harvest level is considered to represent the upper limit of fishing pressure. Age composition in a given year could potentially be used to forecast landing abundance for the following 2 years. This study provides a basis for establishing effective fisheries resource management strategies for M. cinereus. 相似文献
2.
Colm J. Fitzgerald Karen Delanty Samuel Shephard 《Fisheries Management and Ecology》2018,25(4):240-252
Inland fisheries can be diverse, local and highly seasonal. This complexity creates challenges for monitoring, and consequently, many inland fish stocks have few data and cannot be assessed using methods typically applied to industrial marine fisheries. In such situations, there may be a role for methods recently developed for assessment of data‐poor fish stocks. Herein, three established data‐poor assessment tools from marine systems are demonstrated to highlight their value to inland fisheries management. A case study application uses archived length, catch and catch‐per‐unit‐effort data to characterise the ecological status of an important recreational brown trout stock in an Irish lake. This case study is of specific use to management of freshwater sport fisheries, but the broader purpose of the paper was to provide a crossover between marine and inland fisheries science, and to highlight accessible data‐poor assessment approaches that may be applicable in diverse inland systems. 相似文献
3.
Natalie A. Dowling Anthony D. M. Smith David C. Smith Ana M. Parma Catherine M. Dichmont Keith Sainsbury Jono R. Wilson Dawn T. Dougherty Jason M. Cope 《Fish and Fisheries》2019,20(1):174-188
The majority of the world's fisheries, by number, are data‐poor/limited, and there is a growing body of literature pertaining to approaches to estimate data‐limited stock status. There are at least two drivers for assessing the status of data‐limited fisheries. The first is to try to understand and report on the global or regional status of fisheries across many stocks. The second is to attempt to assess individual data‐limited stocks, for status reporting and/or guiding management decisions. These drivers have led to attempts to find simple, generic, low‐cost solutions, including the broad application of generically parameterised models, and the blanket application of a single, or limited number of possible, analytical approach(es). It is unclear that generic methods function as intended, especially when taken out of their original design context or used without care. If the intention is to resolve individual stock status for the purposes of management, there is concern with the indiscriminate application of a single method to a suite of stocks irrespective of the particular circumstances of each. We examine why caution needs to be exercised, and provide guidance on the appropriate application of data‐limited assessment methods (DLMs). We recommend: (a) obtaining better data, (b) using care in acknowledging and interpreting uncertainties in the results of DLMs, (c) embedding DLMs in harvest strategies that are robust to the higher levels of uncertainty in the output of DLMs by including precautionary management measures or buffers and (d) selecting and applying DLMs appropriate to specific species’ and fisheries’ data and context. 相似文献
4.
Errors in fitting models to data are usually assumed to follow a normal (or log normal) distribution in fisheries. This assumption is usually used in formulating likelihood functions often required in frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment modelling. Fisheries data are commonly subject to atypical errors, resulting in outliers in stock assessment modelling. Because most stock assessment models are nonlinear and contain multiple variables, it is difficult, if not impossible, to identify outliers by plotting fisheries data alone. Commonly used normal distribution‐based frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment methods are sensitive to outliers, resulting in biased estimates of model parameters that are vital in defining the dynamics of fish stocks and evaluating alternative strategies for fisheries management. Because of the high likelihood of having outliers in fisheries data, frequentist or Bayesian methods robust to outliers are more desirable in fisheries stock assessment. This study reviews three approaches that can be used to develop robust frequentist or Bayesian stock assessment methods. Using simulated fisheries as examples, we demonstrate how these approaches can be used to develop the frequentist and Bayesian stock assessment approaches that are robust to outliers in fisheries data and compare the robust approaches with the commonly used normal distribution‐based approach. The proposed robust approaches provide alternative ways to developing frequentist or Bayesian stock assessment methods. 相似文献
5.
Catches are commonly misreported in many fisheries worldwide, resulting in inaccurate data that hinder our ability to assess population status and manage fisheries sustainably. Under‐reported catch is generally perceived to lead to overfishing, and hence, catch reconstructions are increasingly used to account for sectors that may be unreliably reported, including illegal harvest, recreational and subsistence fisheries, and discards. However, improved monitoring and/or catch reconstructions only aid in the first step of a fisheries management plan: collecting data to make inferences on stock status. Misreported catch impacts estimates of population parameters, which in turn influences management decisions, but the pattern and degree of these impacts are not necessarily intuitive. We conducted a simulation study to test the effect of different patterns of catch misreporting on estimated fishery status and recommended catches. If, for example, 50% of all fishery catches are consistently unreported, estimates of population size and sustainable yield will be 50% lower, but estimates of current exploitation rate and fishery status will be unbiased. As a result, constant under‐ or over‐reporting of catches results in recommended catches that are sustainable. However, when there are trends in catch reporting over time, the estimates of important parameters are inaccurate, generally leading to underutilization when reporting rates improve, and overfishing when reporting rates degrade. Thus, while quantifying total catch is necessary for understanding the impact of fisheries on businesses, communities and ecosystems, detecting trends in reporting rates is more important for estimating fishery status and setting sustainable catches into the future. 相似文献
6.
Fisheries management depends on reliable quantification of uncertainty for decision‐making. We evaluate which uncertainty method can be expected to perform best for fisheries stock assessment. The method should generate confidence intervals that are neither too narrow nor too wide, in order to cover the true value of estimated quantities with a probability matching the claimed confidence level. This simulation study compares the performance of the delta method, the bootstrap, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A statistical catch‐at‐age model is fitted to 1000 simulated datasets, with varying recruitment and observation noise. Six reference points are estimated, and confidence intervals are constructed across a range of significance levels. Overall, the delta method and MCMC performed considerably better than the bootstrap, and MCMC was the most reliable method in terms of worst‐case performance, for our relatively data‐rich scenario and catch‐at‐age model, which was not subject to substantial model misspecification. All three methods generated too narrow confidence intervals, underestimating the true uncertainty. Bias correction improved the bootstrap performance, but not enough to match the performance of the delta method and MCMC. We recommend using MCMC as the default method for quantifying uncertainty in fisheries stock assessment, although the delta method is the fastest to apply, and the bootstrap is useful to diagnose estimator bias. 相似文献
7.
A primary goal of ecosystem‐based fishery management is to reduce non‐target stock impacts, such as incidental harvest, during targeted fisheries. Quantifying incidental harvest has generally incorporated fishery‐dependent catch data, yet such data may be biased by gear non‐retention, observation difficulties, and non‐random harvest patterns that collectively lead to an impartial understanding of non‐target stock capture. To account for such issues and explicitly recognize the combined influence of ecological and harvest factors contributing to incidental capture within targeted fisheries, we demonstrate a probabilistic modelling framework that incorporates: (i) background rates of target and non‐target stock co‐occurrence as the primary ecological basis for incidental harvest; (ii) the probability of harvesting at localities exhibiting co‐occurrences; (iii) the probability of selecting for non‐target species with fishery gear; and, (iv) as a function of harvest effort, the overall probability of incidental capture for any non‐target stock contained in the species pool available for harvest. To illustrate application of the framework, simulation models were based on fishery‐independent data from a freshwater fishery in Ontario, Canada. Harvest simulations of empirical stock data indicated that greatest species‐specific capture values were over 4000 times more likely than for species with lowest values, indicating highly variable capture probabilities because of the combined influence of stock heterogeneity and harvest dynamics. Estimated bycatch–effort relationships will allow forecasting incidental harvest on the basis of effort to evaluate future shifts in fishing activity against specific ecosystem‐based fishery management objectives, such as reducing the overall probability of bycatch while maintaining target landings. 相似文献
8.
Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models. 相似文献
9.
Shane P. Griffiths Kenneth H. Pollock Jeremy M. Lyle Julian G. Pepperell Mark L. Tonks William Sawynok 《Fish and Fisheries》2010,11(2):220-228
Obtaining reliable estimates of important parameters from recreational fisheries is problematic but critical for stock assessment and effective resource management. Sampling methodologies based on traditional design‐based sampling theory, is inadequate in obtaining representative catch and effort data, social or demographical characterization, or fisher behaviour from small hard‐to‐reach components within recreational fisheries (e.g. specialized sport fisheries) that may account for the majority of the catch for some species. A model‐based approach to sampling is necessary. Researchers in other disciplines including epidemiology and social sciences routinely survey rare or ‘hidden’ populations within the general community by penetration of social networks rather than by interception of individuals. We encourage fisheries researchers to rethink survey designs and consider the social elements of recreational fishing. Employing chain‐referral methods, such as respondent‐driven sampling (RDS), may be a statistically robust and cost‐effective option for sampling elusive sub‐elements within recreational fisheries. Chain‐referral sampling methodology is outlined and an example of a complemented ‘RDS‐recapture’ survey design is introduced as a cost‐effective application to estimating total catch in recreational fisheries. 相似文献
10.
Informative data in fisheries stock assessment are those that lead to accurate estimates of abundance and reference points. In practice, the accuracy of estimated abundance is unknown and it is often unclear which features of the data make them informative or uninformative. Neither is it obvious which model assumptions will improve estimation performance, given a particular data set. In this simulation study, 10 hypotheses are addressed using multiple scenarios, estimation models, and reference points. The simulated data scenarios all share the same biological and fleet characteristics, but vary in terms of the fishing history. The estimation models are based on a common statistical catch‐at‐age framework, but estimate different parameters and have different parts of the data available to them. Among the findings is that a ‘one‐way trip’ scenario, where harvest rate gradually increases while abundance decreases, proved no less informative than a contrasted catch history. Models that excluded either abundance index or catch at age performed surprisingly well, compared to models that included both data types. Natural mortality rate, M, was estimated with some reliability when age‐composition data were available from before major catches were removed. Stock‐recruitment steepness, h, was estimated with some reliability when abundance‐index or age‐composition data were available from years of very low abundance. Understanding what makes fisheries data informative or uninformative enables scientists to identify fisheries for which stock assessment models are likely to be biased or imprecise. Managers can also benefit from guidelines on how to distribute funding and manpower among different data collection programmes to gather the most information. 相似文献
11.
Rod Fujita Daniel J Thornhill Kendra Karr Cara H Cooper Laura E Dee 《Fish and Fisheries》2014,15(4):661-675
Coral reefs support numerous ornamental fisheries, but there are concerns about stock sustainability due to the volume of animals caught. Such impacts are difficult to quantify and manage because fishery data are often lacking. Here, we suggest a framework that integrates several data‐poor assessment and management methods in order to provide management guidance for fisheries that differ widely in the kinds and amounts of data available. First, a resource manager could assess the status of the ecosystem (using quantitative metrics where data are available and semi‐quantitative risk assessment where they are not) and determine whether overall fishing mortality should be reduced. Next, productivity susceptibility analysis can be used to estimate vulnerability to fishing using basic information on life history and the nature of the fishery. Information on the relative degree of exploitation (e.g. export data or ratios of fish density inside and outside no‐take marine reserves) is then combined with the vulnerability ranks to prioritize species for precautionary management and further analysis. For example, species that are both highly exploited and vulnerable are good candidates for precautionary reductions in allowable capture. Species that appear to be less vulnerable could be managed on a stock‐specific basis to prevent over‐exploitation of some species resulting from the use of aggregate catch limits. The framework could be applied to coral reef ornamental fisheries which typically lack landings, catch‐per‐unit‐effort and age‐size data to generate management guidance to reduce overfishing risk. We illustrate the application of this framework to an ornamental fishery in Indonesia. 相似文献
12.
The dynamics of collapse in world fisheries 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9
The fear of a rapid depletion of world fish stocks because of over‐exploitation is increasing. Analysis of 1519 main series of the FAO world fisheries catch database over the last 50 years reveals that 366 fisheries’ collapses occurred, that is nearly one fishery of four. The robustness of this result is tested by performing several complementary analyses using different conservative options. The number of collapses has been stable through time since 1950s indicating no improvement in the overall fisheries management. Three typical patterns emerge from the analysis of catch series during the period preceding the collapses: smooth collapse (33%), i.e. a long regular decline, erratic collapse (45%), i.e. a fall after several ups and downs, and a plateau‐shaped collapse (21%), i.e. a sudden fall after a relatively long and stable persistence of high level of catches. Using a simple mathematical model, we relate the plateau‐shaped collapses (which are, by nature, the most difficult to predict) to surreptitiously increasing exploitation and a depensatory mechanism at low population levels. Thus, a stable level of catch over several years is shown to conceal the risk of a sudden collapse. This jeopardizes the common assumption that considers the stability of catch as a goal for fisheries sustainability. 相似文献
13.
Common uncertainties in stock assessment relate to parameters or assumptions that strongly determine both the estimates of quantities of management interest (e.g. stock depletion) and related reference points (e.g. biomass at maximum sustainable yield). The risks associated with these uncertainties are often presented to managers in the form of decision tables. However, a formal evaluation of the risks from misspecifying an assessment model over time‐horizons spanning multiple assessment cycles requires closed‐loop simulation. There were two aims of this study: (a) develop an approach to identify and evaluate asymmetries in risk to yields and spawning biomass due to biases in key parameters and data sources in a stock assessment model, (b) quantify the relative importance of correctly specifying the various assessment attributes. A computationally efficient stock reduction analysis was evaluated using closed‐loop simulation to identify risks associated with a stock assessment with persistent positive and negative biases in the key parameters and inaccurate assumptions regarding data sources. Six types of assessment misspecification were examined, namely the assumed natural mortality rate, the assumed recruitment compensation ratio, the assumed age of maturity, a hyper‐stable or hyper‐deplete index of abundance, over‐ or under‐reporting of historical catch, and misspecification of the assumed shape of the selectivity curve. This study reveals large asymmetries in risk associated with common uncertainties in stock assessment processes. We highlight the value of reproducible and computationally efficient stock assessment models that can be investigated by closed‐loop simulation before being used for fisheries management. 相似文献
14.
Since the 1970s, South Pacific jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) is one of the world's most important commercial exploited fish stock. The peak in the catch was achieved in the 1990s, after which the catch for all fleets steadily decreased due to strong fishing mortality and potentially unfavourable environmental conditions. An application of the ecosystem and fish population model SEAPODYM was developed for this species in the South Pacific Ocean to determine the extent of environmental and fisheries drivers on the stock dynamics. We combined publicly available fishing data, acoustic biomass estimates and expert knowledge to optimise fish population dynamics parameters (habitats, movements, natural and fishing mortality). Despite a large proportion of missing catch over the simulation period, the model provides realistic distributions of biomass, a good fit‐to‐data and is in agreement with the literature. The feeding habitat is predicted to be delineated by water temperature between 15°C for the first cohorts and 8.5°C for the oldest and dissolved oxygen concentration above 1.8 ml/L. Optimal spawning temperature is estimated to 15.57°C (S.E.: 0.75°C). The core habitat is predicted off Central Chile which is also the main fishing ground. There are other areas of higher fish concentration east of New Zealand, in the eastern part of the southern convergence and off Peru and northern Chile. However, there is a clear continuity between these different large sub‐populations. Fishing is predicted to have by far the highest impact, a result that should be reinforced if all fishing mortality could be included. 相似文献
15.
Integrating recreational fisheries data into stock assessment: implications for model performance and subsequent harvest strategies 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Understanding the impacts of recreational fishing on commercially fished stocks is becoming increasingly relevant for fisheries managers. However, data from recreational fisheries are not commonly included in stock assessments of commercially fished stocks. Simulation models of two assessment methods employed in Australia's Commonwealth fisheries were used to explore how recreational fishery data can be included, and the likely consequences for management. In a data‐poor management strategy for blue eye trevalla, Hyperoglyphe antarctica (Carmichael), temporal trends in recreational catch most affected management outcomes. In a data‐rich age‐structured stock assessment for striped marlin, Kajikia audax (Philippi), estimates of stock status were biased when recreational catches were large or when the recreational fishery targeted different size classes than the commercial fishery and these data were not integrated into the assessment. Including data from recreational fishing can change perceptions of stock status and impact recommendations for harvest strategies and management action. An understanding of recreational fishery dynamics should be prioritised for some species. 相似文献
16.
Sean C Anderson Joanna Mills Flemming Reg Watson Heike K Lotze 《Fish and Fisheries》2011,12(3):317-339
In recent decades, invertebrate fisheries have expanded in catch and value worldwide. One increasingly harvested group is sea cucumbers (class Holothuroidea), which are highly valued in Asia and sold as trepang or bêche‐de‐mer. We compiled global landings, economic data, and country‐specific assessment and management reports to synthesize global trends in sea cucumber fisheries, evaluate potential drivers, and test for local and global serial exploitation patterns. Although some sea cucumber fisheries have existed for centuries, catch trends of most individual fisheries followed boom‐and‐bust patterns since the 1950s, declining nearly as quickly as they expanded. New fisheries expanded five to six times faster in 1990 compared to 1960 and at an increasing distance from Asia, encompassing a global fishery by the 1990s. Global sea cucumber production was correlated to the Japanese yen at a leading lag. Regional assessments revealed that population declines from overfishing occurred in 81% of sea cucumber fisheries, average harvested body size declined in 35%, harvesters moved from near‐ to off‐shore regions in 51% and from high‐ to low‐value species in 76%. Thirty‐eight per cent of sea cucumber fisheries remained unregulated, and illegal catches were of concern in half. Our results suggest that development patterns of sea cucumber fisheries are largely predictable, often unsustainable and frequently too rapid for effective management responses. We discuss potential ecosystem and human community consequences and urge for better monitoring and reporting of catch and abundance, proper scientific stock assessment and consideration of international trade regulations to ensure long‐term and sustainable harvesting of sea cucumbers worldwide. 相似文献
17.
R. F. REUTER M. E. CONNERS J. DICOSIMO S. GAICHAS O. ORMSETH T. T. TENBRINK 《Fisheries Management and Ecology》2010,17(4):323-335
Abstract The 2006 reauthorisation of the Magnuson‐Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act requires annual catch limits for all target and non‐target species within federally managed fisheries in the United States. In Alaska, both target and non‐target species in the Alaska groundfish fisheries have been managed using catch limits since the early 1990s. Non‐target species that are caught incidentally in a fishery require monitoring to ensure that the population is not negatively impacted by commercial fishing. Resource assessment scientists have been challenged with obtaining sufficient data to recommend an acceptable catch level for management of these species. This paper reviews three case studies where a catch limit is determined for non‐target species when certain data are limited: (1) varying levels of biomass and catch data for all species within a species group or complex; (2) adequate catch data but no biomass data; (3) emerging target fishery of data‐poor species, plus an example of how a complex of ecosystem component species is managed. 相似文献
18.
Rainer Froese Nazli Demirel Gianpaolo Coro Kristin M Kleisner Henning Winker 《Fish and Fisheries》2017,18(3):506-526
This study presents a Monte Carlo method (CMSY) for estimating fisheries reference points from catch, resilience and qualitative stock status information on data‐limited stocks. It also presents a Bayesian state‐space implementation of the Schaefer production model (BSM), fitted to catch and biomass or catch‐per‐unit‐of‐effort (CPUE) data. Special emphasis was given to derive informative priors for productivity, unexploited stock size, catchability and biomass from population dynamics theory. Both models gave good predictions of the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase r, unexploited stock size k and maximum sustainable yield MSY when validated against simulated data with known parameter values. CMSY provided, in addition, reasonable predictions of relative biomass and exploitation rate. Both models were evaluated against 128 real stocks, where estimates of biomass were available from full stock assessments. BSM estimates of r, k and MSY were used as benchmarks for the respective CMSY estimates and were not significantly different in 76% of the stocks. A similar test against 28 data‐limited stocks, where CPUE instead of biomass was available, showed that BSM and CMSY estimates of r, k and MSY were not significantly different in 89% of the stocks. Both CMSY and BSM combine the production model with a simple stock–recruitment model, accounting for reduced recruitment at severely depleted stock sizes. 相似文献
19.
Brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) density distribution in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: an approach using boosted regression trees 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Jose T. Montero Tanya A. Chesney Jennifer R. Bauer John T. Froeschke Jim Graham 《Fisheries Oceanography》2016,25(3):337-348
The estuarine‐dependent brown shrimp, Farfantepenaeus aztecus, is a significant commercial fishery and important species in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) ecosystem as well as being a key component in energy transfer between benthic and pelagic food web systems. Because of the economical and ecological importance of brown shrimp, we developed a spatial population model to identify places of high shrimp density under a set of spatial, environmental and temporal variables in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). We used fisheries‐independent data collected by the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP) from 1992 to 2007 (summer and fall seasons). The relationship between the predictor variables and shrimp density was modeled using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). Within the environmental variables included in the model, bottom type and depth of the water column were the most important predictors of shrimp density in the NGOM. Spatial predictions performed using the trained BRT model for summer and fall seasons showed a spatial segregation of shrimp density. During the summer, higher densities were predicted near the Texas and Louisiana coast and during the fall, higher densities were predicted further offshore. The model performed well and allowed successful prediction of brown shrimp hot spots in the NGOM. Model results allow fisheries managers to evaluate the potential impact from fisheries on the resource and to develop future fisheries management strategies, understand the biology of brown shrimp as well as assess the potential impacts of oil spills or climate change. 相似文献
20.
Time/area closures have been widely used in fisheries management to prevent overfishing and the destruction of marine biodiversity. To a lesser degree, such spatio‐temporal management measures have been used to reduce by‐catch of finfish or protected species. However, as ecosystem‐based management approaches are employed and more fisheries are managed through multispecies, multiobjective models, the management of by‐catch will likely become increasingly important. The elimination of by‐catch has become a primary goal of the fishing policies of many countries. It is particularly relevant in the United States, as the deadline for setting annual catch limits (ACLs) in all fisheries passes in 2011. This will result in a dramatic expansion of the number of catch and by‐catch quotas. Such catch measures may result in the early closure of otherwise sustainable fisheries when by‐catch quotas are exceeded. To prevent such closures and the consequent economic hardship to fishers and the economy, it is imperative that managers be given the tools necessary to reduce by‐catch and improve fishing selectivity. Targeted spatio‐temporal fishery closures are one solution open to managers. Here, we examine how the spatio‐temporal and oceanographic characteristics of by‐catch may be used by managers to design fishery closures, and place these methods within a decision tree to assist managers to identify appropriate management measures. We argue that the current movement towards marine spatial planning (MSP) presents an important impetus to examine how we manage fisheries spatially, and we offer a first step towards the objective participation of fisheries in the MSP process. 相似文献