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1.
A computer program to simulate beef production is described. The model is based on the principles of industrial dynamics and constructed in the simulation language DYNAMO. This dynamic model is composed of subroutines that simulate herd structure for a cow herd and a production herd composed of calves from the cow herd. Additional subroutines model pre-weaning and post-weaning growth of the calves.The portion of the model that simulates the herd structure includes ten age classes of cow. The subroutine which models the portion of the herd between 2 and 9 years of age utilises twelve variables to describe the events that occur in the herd during the passage of a year. The age structure of the herd is influenced by the breeding system and the way in which the herd is managed.The production herd is modelled by sequential subroutines. These subroutines follow the number and growth of calves weaned from the cow herd until they are sold at 32, 52, 67 or 85 weeks of age. Mating plans utilising different breeds can be simulated in combination with various management options. 相似文献
2.
引入逻辑斯蒂函数描述水分敏感指数随时间的变化过程,对Jensen模型(模型一)进行了改进,使得改进后的作物水模型(模型二)的参数固定为4个,避免了模型一参数随时段数增加而增加的缺陷。采用山西水利职业技术学院试验基地2007年和2008年冬小麦田间试验资料,将冬小麦全生育期等间隔地划分为23、21、19、17、……、3共11个时段,利用非线性规划的方法求得了相应的模型参数,进行了比较分析。结果表明,采用模型一时,相对腾发量划分的时段数以5左右为宜,不宜超过7;采用模型二时,则不受时段数的限制;模型二的修正复相关系数Ra随时段数的增加略有增大的趋势,均在0.84以上,F值均在16以上,大于F0.001=12.56,达到极显著水平,能够用于模拟供水对产量的影响;模型二的标准误随时段数的增加上下波动,变化于0.100~0.108之间,小于模型一的标准误,模拟精度高于模型一;采用模型二模拟产量时宜尽量使用较大时段数的参数,且腾发量划分的时段数与参数的时段数应尽可能一致。 相似文献
3.
Jonathan Wadsworth 《Agricultural Systems》1985,16(2):85-107
The economic effect of increased stocking rate permitted by the introduction of dry season feedin is evaluated with reference to the growing/fatening system of beef production in the sub-humid tropics. A widely applicable model is derived which requires few input variables, all of which will be easily obtainable in a specific location. The economic break-even point in terms of feeding cost and dry season length can be determined in order to assess the value of local diets or attempt the formulation of new ones. Increae in profitability due to dry season feeding is assessed taking into account increase in stocking rate, seasonal de-stocking practices, length of dry season, growth rates, feed costs and beef price. The model is appropriate for use in developing countries and can be employed manually to determine rapidly those management options worthy of more detailed consideration. 相似文献
4.
The presence of cattle in the Amazon region is controversial in terms of their ecological suitability and profitability compared with crops. Nevertheless, they are widely distributed in the study area in north-eastern Pará and, contrary to the common image of cattle on large ranches, a high proportion of them are kept on smallholder farms. To explain their presence, cattle are assumed to have benefits beyond physical production, such as complementing resource use or representing capital. To test this hypothesis, the costs and benefits of the three main agricultural activities, cattle, cassava and black pepper production, in terms of land, labour and capital productivity, were recorded in 37 small farms over a period of 15 months. To provide a longer perspective, benefits and costs of these activities were calculated for their assumed lifetime, which in the case of cattle, assumed a stable herd, derived from a deterministic herd model. The resultant values for land, labour and capital productivity of cattle were much lower than the values derived from direct observations during the study period, and were not as high as those for cassava and black pepper. Furthermore, the analysis of resource use in the farms showed that cattle production was not usually integrated with cropping activities, did not improve the use of available labour, and competed for land. Therefore, there had to be a reason for keeping cattle beyond their physical productivity. It was deduced to be their functional quality. Cattle could be disposed of quickly and easily at any time, in order to acquire large sums of cash or the equivalent in kind. The liquidity derived from keeping living stock was not matched by other agricultural activities or by the financial market. Hence, cattle turned out to be the best instrument of finance for the smallholder. Farmers were not interested in the continuous development of their herds, or sustainable production practices, and favoured low input management. Consequently, development plans relying on long-term, continuous commitments to pasture and cattle management are inappropriate. Instead, research and extension work should focus on simple, flexible and low-cost improvements to cattle keeping on crop-livestock smallholder farms, until credit programmes are available that replace the financing function of cattle. 相似文献
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6.
Crop tolerance to land submergence is an important criterion for designing a surface drainage system for agricultural lands. This paper collates the available data from various places in India related to the studies on the submergence tolerance of crops. The paper hypothesizes that a piecewise linear model could be used to describe crop response to land submergence. According to this hypothesis, there would be no yield decline for a few initial days of submergence. If submergence continues beyond this period then there would be linear decline in yield. The unknown parameters in the model are: optimum yield, threshold time and the slope which represents the per cent yield reduction per day of additional submergence beyond the threshold.Data in respect of wheat, pigeon peas, cowpeas, pearlmillet, maize and groundnuts indicate that the model describes the data well, although in many cases the threshold is 0.0. The yield reduction varies from 5.3 to 23.2% for each day of submergence beyond the threshold. It appears that to allow for more than 1–2 days of submergence will result in more than 10% reducation in yield of dryfoot crops. For the maize crop, the seedling stage is the most sensitive stage followed by the silking stage. The grain formation stage is the least sensitive, although even at this stage the threshold is 0.0 and yield reduction is 9.3% for each day of submergence beyond the threshold. The data for 9 test crops from Texas and Venezuela were well described by the model. It is concluded that the piecewise linear model is a useful tool for describing submergence tolerance of crops and for working out surface drainage requirements for a given level of yield reduction. Frequency analysis of the daily rainfall data from some selected locations indicates that there is every likelihood of submergence at most of the stations. It is suggested that there is an urgent need for developing wet farming techniques analogous to dry farming techniques. 相似文献
7.
《Agricultural Systems》1987,23(4):277-286
Analyses of various management strategies available for the production of Gobra Zebu cattle at Dahra Research Station were conducted using a dynamic cattle production simulation model. Growth, milk production, forage and management characteristics collected at the station were the major input data used. Effects of the management strategies on production performances were predicted by examining changes in breeding season, breeding age, weaning age and supplementation regimes on productivity indices. The indices used were efficiency of nutrient utilization (ENU), defined as liveweight sold per 100 kg DM consumed, and cow productivity index (CPI), defined as liveweight sold per cow exposed. When females were exposed to calve first at 3 years of age, the ENU (94·4) and CPI (4·04) were highest for breeding from September to November and lowest (77·93 and 3·43, respectively) for breeding from July to September. Weaning at 7 months of age resulted in the highest ENU and CPI (94·89 and 3·95) while weaning at 5 months generated the lowest ENU and CPI (83·93 and 3·58). Among all feeding alternatives, the highest ENU (105·84) and CPI (4·21) were obtained when the entire cow herd was supplemented from May to July. Supplementation of mature cows only was the most desirable strategy among the selective supplemental feeding practices with regard to cow age classes. Results provided valuable guidelines for selecting management practices likely to increase Gobra Zebu productivity. 相似文献
8.
绿色发展是当今世界所倡导的一个重要发展理念,农户进行绿色生产是当今中国农业发展的重大课题。基于甘肃省820个农户的实地调研数据,对农户绿色生产意愿与行为悖离的因素运用Logistic ISM模型进行分析,并对各影响因素之间的逻辑层次关系进行深入探讨。研究结果表明：从Logistic回归结果看,农户绿色生产意愿与行为上发生悖离,在社会规范上,个体规范和描述性社会规范对悖离的发生均有负向作用,相关规范越详细,悖离就有越低的可能性。在农户个体特征和农户绿色认知方面,性别和种植规模对悖离的发生表现出正向作用,而年龄、农户环境认知、经济价值认知和危害认知则具有显著的负向影响。解释结构模型结果显示,性别、年龄、农户环境认知、经济价值认知、种植规模和危害认知是最深层次的根基因素,并通过绿色生产重要性规范这一中间层因素,导致农户在个体规范和描述性社会规范上出现不同,最后致使农户绿色生产意愿与行为悖离。可知,在农户绿色生产意愿与行为悖离过程中发挥重要的直接驱动和过渡作用的是农户的社会规范。 相似文献
9.
《Agricultural Systems》2002,73(3):297-311
This paper shows how a highly complex potato production system, like the Argentinian one, can be surveyed and analysed. A survey was complemented with the use of a Geographic Information System and a simulation model approach which improves the understanding of the possibilities for increasing future crop production by expanding the area cropped with potatoes and/or the yield. A yield gap analysis was also a useful and comprehensive tool to identify and rank yield defining, yield limiting and yield reducing factors for those agro-ecological zones where the potato is currently grown. With these procedures, the physiological age of seed tubers and virus diseases were identified as the most relevant factors limiting and reducing yield. Specific strategies can be developed to counteract their limiting and reducing effects upon seed quality and tuber yield. The approach of this work does not only apply for the specific situation of the potato crop in Argentina, but this framework could be successfully applied to other crops or production systems elsewhere. 相似文献
10.
R.L. McCown 《Agricultural Systems》1982,8(1):3-15
In Part II liveweight loss in the dry season was found in most years to be closely related to cumulative ‘dry weeks’; extraordinary weight loss occurred in the dry season in years in which there were a low number of ‘growth weeks’ in the previous green season. Annual liveweight gain was related to the total number of ‘green weeks’. In this paper the geographic variation in these three agro-climatic parameters is described using a network of 77 stations across northern Australia, and the year-to-year variability is examined for eight representative stations.Variation in dry season severity was greater than variation in green season productivity (growth weeks). Median ‘dry weeks’ in the dry season varied from 29 to nil over the area. ‘Green weeks’ in the dry season as a result of winter rain is an important phenomenon in a relatively small part of the area, but in this area year-to-year variability is extremely high.It is concluded that the objectives of the study, to extend existing agro-climatic methodology to interface with cattle production and to use this in surveying the climatic potential for this form of land use over the entire tropical region of Australia, were achieved to the extent that the existing animal production data allow. 相似文献
11.
A computerised model to describe and predict cattle production for any herd size and time period and for a wide range of environments, was developed from a model published by Sanders & Cartwright (1979a, b).The dynamics of the model are based on the flow of energy from vegetative sources to animal products in a single-animal or cow-calf unit, so that the model is appropriate even for smallholder herds. A separate flow of numbers records the dynamically changing herd size and structure.Reproduction and mortality are linked to the nutritional and physiological status of each individual. Their occurrence is triggered stochastically to preserve the integer quality of the herd. In all other respects the model is deterministic.The simulated herd can be of any number, breed, sex and age composition. Breeds are distinguished by mature size, growth rate and milk production: they can be single, dual and/or triple purpose (dairy and/or beef and/or draught). Feeding management can be grazing, stall-feeding or a combination of the two. Routines are included which can simulate different types of management decisions and their repercussions. Functions for the quantification of the model were selected according to preset guidelines, generally following an investigation of conflicting hypotheses.There are eight different output options (tabular and graphical), representing various levels of model resolution. 相似文献
12.
《Agricultural Systems》2005,84(2):195-225
In spite of the economic importance and extensive agronomic literature on cocoa, no physiological production model has been developed for cocoa so far. Such a model would be very useful to compare yields in different climates and cropping systems, and to set the agenda for future agronomic research. Here, we present and apply such a physiological growth and production model for cocoa (SUCROS-Cocoa), based on the SUCROS-family of physiological crop growth models. Our model calculates light interception, photosynthesis, maintenance respiration, evapotranspiration, biomass production and bean yield for cocoa trees grown under shade trees. It can cope with both potential and water-limited situations, and is parameterised using existing information on cocoa physiology and morphology. A validation study showed that the model produces realistic output for bean yield, standing biomass, leaf area and size–age relations. Simulations were carried out using climatic information of 30 locations in 10 cocoa-producing countries, three different soil types and varying shade levels.The model was applied to answer four questions that are currently relevant to cocoa production. (1) Which are the most important yield-determining parameters? Sensitivity analyses revealed that these parameters were chiefly related to the morphology of fruits, photosynthesis and maintenance respiration. (2) To what extent can cocoa yield be predicted by rainfall and irradiance data? Regression analyses showed that over 70% of the variation in simulated bean yield could be explained by a combination of annual radiation and rainfall during the two driest months. (3) How large is the cocoa yield gap due to water limitation? Yield gaps were large – up to 50% – for locations with a strong dry season combined with an unfavourable (clayey or sandy) soil. The calculated yield gaps decreased exponentially with the amount of rain during the two driest months. (4) What are the consequences of shading on cocoa yield? Our simulations showed that moderate shade levels hardly affected bean yield, whereas heavy shading (>60%) reduced yields by more than one-third. 相似文献
13.
A computer simulation model for a confinement feeder pig production unit is described. The model is written in SLAM, a Fortran-based simulation language, and simulated the performance, feed, labour, space and replacement requirements of a feeder pig unit from the entry of replacement gilts through to the production of feeder pigs. An application of the model is presented. The alternative lactation lengths of 3 and 6 weeks are compared. The 3-week lactation length resulted in an increase in pigs produced per sow per year with no change in feed efficiency. The decreases in litter size and conception rate associated with the shorter lactation are offset by an increase in number of litters per year. 相似文献
14.
移民生产安置任务的确定与大型水电站的建设及移民的生产生活密切相关。以大岗山水电站淹没线上剩余的77块耕地为例,对线上剩余耕地质量评价及其对移民生产安置任务的影响进行了探讨。研究结果表明,线上剩余耕地质量主要受海拔、耕地类型、坡度和土壤类型的影响,线上剩余耕地质量评价前后移民生产安置任务分别为2 569人和3 187人。进行线上剩余耕地质量评价后,大岗山水电站淹没影响区的移民安置任务增加了24.06%。通过线上剩余耕地质量评价,能更科学合理地确定移民生产安置任务,对移民安置工作的顺利进行有重要的意义。 相似文献
15.
【目的】研究新疆膜下滴灌玉米的灌溉制度和需水规律,为新疆玉米节水增产提供科学指导。【方法】基于2020年4个不同灌水水平下的玉米生长发育及产量数据,对DSSAT-CERES-Maize模型进行参数率定和验证,评价模型在新疆地区的适用性;利用1979―2017年气象数据,对典型年型分别设置14种灌溉方案,探究新疆膜下滴灌玉米的最优灌溉制度。【结果】利用玉米的叶面积指数、干物质量、产量的观测值对CERES-Maize模型进行参数率定和验证。叶面积指数、干物质量、产量等的模拟值和实测值都表现出了较好的一致性,模拟效果较好。通过模拟分析可得,不同年型玉米关键需水期对缺水的敏感程度大小为:抽雄期>拔节期>灌浆期。综合考虑产量和水分利用效率,枯水年、平水年、丰水年玉米抽雄期灌溉量分别为180、180、120 mm,灌浆期均灌溉120 mm,其余各生育期灌溉量都为60mm时最优。优化后灌溉制度对应的产量分别在枯水年、平水年、丰水年占对应最高产量的99.53%、97.51%、98.45%。【结论】CERES-Maize模型总体上可以应用于新疆地区滴灌玉米的研究,利用模型优化后的灌溉制度能够为新疆滴灌玉米的种植提供一定的参考依据。 相似文献
16.
Summary The hypothesis that increasing the plant population of guayule (Parthenium argentatum) to compensate for the reduced plant canopy size caused by soil salinity coupled with an anticipated enchancement of rubber production under the moderate environmental stress imposed by salinity was tested in a field plot experiment in the Imperial Valley of California. Irrigation waters having electrical conductivities (EG
i
) of 1.2, 3.2, 6.5, and 9.4 dS/m were applied for 4 years to plots having plant populations of 28,000, 56,000, and 84,000 plants per hectare. The influence of salinity on rubber and resin production was independent of plant population. The salt tolerance threshold, maximum average salinity level of the root zone measured as the electrical conductivity of saturated soil extracts (
) without yield reduction, was 7.5 dS/m; beyond this threshold, rubber production was reduced 6.1% per unit increase of soil salinity. The salinity values were averaged through the root zone from planting to harvest. The average rubber content — 7.9% — was altered little by treatment or harvest age for 2- to 4-year-old plants. Resin content averaged 8.4% but increased salinity and increased plant population increased the resin content slightly in some cases. Dry matter production of shoots for the nonsaline treatment was 259 kg/ha/month for pollarded (clipped) shoots after 31 months, 203 kg/ha/month for shoots harvested after 43 months, and 401 kg/ha/month for the 24-month period after pollarding. Combining the shoot mass after 31 and 55 months gave an average growth rate of 321 kg/ha, supporting the recommendation for pollarding. Monthly growth rates for the lowest salt treatment (3.2 dS/m) were about 10% less than for the nonsaline treatment (1.2 dS/m). The hypothesis tested was proven to be false because neither increased salinity nor increased plant population increased rubber production. 相似文献
17.
A simulation model is presented for a typical Australian pome fruit orchard. The main routine calculates annual after-tax profit and sub routines generate optimum replacement age and stochastic variability due to hail and drought. The principal dependent variables such as prices, yields and costs can be changed as required to add flexibility for various practical circumtances. Two replacement policies are used, self replacement (270 trees/ha) and semi-intensive (715 trees/ha). Under mean price and yield conditions, converting the orchard to semi-intensive production gives an average annual improvement in profit of $13 000 over a 100 year simulation period. Results emphasised the need for earlier replacement of trees than is usual practice. Existing trees were replaced at 31 years of age and thereafter recycled at 46 year intervals. Application of regression analysis to produce iso-performance curves revealed important interactions between price, cost, yield and orchard profitability with price being the most sensitive parameter. 相似文献
18.
The concepts, essential features and numerical inputs used in developing a dynamic simulation model of the ruminant digestive system are presented. A major objective was to develop a model that could be used in the analysis of factors which determine the nutritive value of feeds.The model comprises fourteen interactive sub-units which accommodate digestion of twelve chemical constituents (soluble carbohydrate, organic acids, starch, pectin, hemicellulose, cellulose, lipids, soluble protein, insoluble protein, non-protein nitrogen, lignin and ash), a central sub-unit which includes microbial growth and a sub-unit in which summary computations are performed.Evaluations of model behaviour were made largely by varying the intake level and feeding frequency of a reference lucerne chaff diet to a 40 kg sheep. These indicated that the concepts introduced are valid and appropriate elements of a model to be used for evaluating the biochemical, microbial, physiological, physical and chemical attributes of feeds and of ruminant animals that determine nutritive value.Two elements of the model were shown to be inadequate: factors regulating the rate of passage of material out of the rumen and factors influencing microbial growth on low nitrogen diets. Thus, additional concepts must be introduced into the model before the nutritive values of a wide range of feeds can be accurately predicted.It was concluded that within the above limitations the model is suitable for testing hypotheses concerned with aspects of ruminant digestion that might cause variations in nutritive value. 相似文献
19.
新疆是我国番茄制品生产和出口的重要基地,基于新疆加工番茄主产县域480份农户的调研数据,采用DEA-BCC模型,测算新疆加工番茄主产县域的生产效率,分析加工番茄主产县域的生产要素冗余率,并利用地理探测器模型,揭示影响加工番茄生产效率的关键因子。结果表明：新疆加工番茄主产县域的生产效率存在显著差异,且生产效率均未达到DEA有效水平;其次,加工番茄主产县域的生产要素投入存在不同程度的冗余,种植面积和农业机械投入冗余属于资源利用强度不足型,劳动力、化肥及农药投入冗余属于要素投入过度型;家庭纯收入、户主年龄、户主受教育程度、种植时间和种植面积是生产效率出现县域差异的主要因子,解释力度介于61.4%～65.2%,且因子间相互作用的影响力均高于单独作用的影响力,表明促进县域之间生产要素的合理流动和高效集聚,发挥主产县域的辐射带动作用,可以有效提高加工番茄种植户的生产效率。 相似文献
20.
Water production functions are used to model yield response to various levels of supplemental irrigation (SI), to assess water productivity coefficients, and to identify optimum irrigation under various input-output price scenarios. The SI production function is taken as the difference between the total water production function (irrigation + rain) and that of rainwater. Theoretical analysis of the unconstrained objective function shows that the seasonal depth of SI to maximize profit occurs when the marginal product of water equals the ratio of unit water cost to unit product sale price. Applying this analysis to wheat in northern Syria, the production functions of SI under different rainfall conditions are developed. Coupled with current and projected water costs and wheat sale prices, the functions are used to develop an easy-to-use chart for determining seasonal irrigation rates to maximize profit under a range of seasonal rainfall amounts.Results show that, for a given seasonal rainfall, there is a critical value for the ratio of irrigation cost to production price beyond which SI becomes less profitable than rainfed production. Higher product prices and lower irrigation costs encourage the use of more water. Policies supporting high wheat prices and low irrigation costs encourage maximizing yields but with low water productivity. The resulting farmer practice threatens the sustainability of water resources. Balancing profitability versus sustainability is a challenge for policy makers. Our analysis can help national and local water authorities and policy makers determine appropriate policies for water valuation and allocation; and assist extension services and farmers in planning irrigation infrastructure and farm water management. 相似文献