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气候变化对我国农业影响的研究进展 总被引:14,自引:3,他引:11
综述了全球气候变化对我国农业的影响。气候变化直接影响农业湿地作物产量,使水稻产量减少;CO2浓度的增加既有利于作物生长,又会抑制利于作物生长的其他因素;紫外线增多直接使作物产量降低、蛋白质和脂肪减少;气候变暖会影响我国的农业气候条件和种植制度、作物品种的布局、产量、施肥水平;气候变暖将使江河水量、水资源的供需状况、旱涝灾害出现的频率、水质等发生变化,从而影响农业。 相似文献
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系统分析总结前人有关气候变化对农作物生长发育影响的研究进展,重点探讨气温、CO_2浓度、降水以及极端气候事件对农作物生长发育、产量及品质的影响。结果表明,气温的升高可导致农作物减产;CO_2浓度升高可促进农作物生长,使农田耗水量增加,并可使粮食品质下降;降水的变化可使我国粮食遭受区域性干旱的面积增大;极端气候事件发生的概率和持续时间的增加对作物生长发育的威胁则更为严重。 相似文献
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青海东部气候变化及其对农牧业生产的影响 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用1959~2004年青海东部11个气象台站气温、降水等地面气象资料,建立了气象要素的年、季序列,用气候诊断方法对干旱变化的成因以及对农牧业生产的影响进行了初步分析。结果表明;青海东部90年代四季平均气温比60或80年代平均偏高了0.3~0.5℃,冬季增温比较显著,这和中国北方地区的偏暖趋势比较一致。90年代该地区春、秋季降水量减少,导致土壤水分下降,河水的径流明显减少,农作物生长季干旱发生的频次增加,危害程度加重。气候变暖将有利于冬小麦的正常越冬和安全返青,同时也将导致农牧业供水矛盾加剧、晚霜冻和病虫害危害程度的加重以及夏季洪涝、高温热浪灾害发生的频次增加。及时掌握气候变化的信息,加快农业种植结构的调整,是农业适应气候变化的重要手段之一。 相似文献
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近50年中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响 总被引:21,自引:2,他引:19
赵秀兰 《东北农业大学学报》2010,41(9)
在回顾中国学者关于东北地区气候变化及对农业影响研究成果基础上,系统概括分析了近50年东北地区农业气候资源和灾害的变化特征及气候变化对农业的影响特征。近50年东北地区升温明显,生长季热量资源增加;农业可用水资源和光能资源呈不同程度减少趋势,且时空分布不均。霜冻害、低温冷害、寒潮、洪涝、冰雹等农业气象灾害减少,旱灾增加。东北地区气候变化对农业影响总体有利,表现为作物适宜生育期延长,发育进程加快,全生育期缩短;积温增加且积温带北移东扩明显,主栽作物适宜种植区域扩大;作物品种由中晚熟替换早中熟;作物种植格局的变化为玉米、水稻、马铃薯等喜温作物种植面积扩大,春小麦种植面积减小。在水分为非限制因子的农区,作物气候生产潜力和产量为增加趋势。气候变化对农业影响的研究存在较大的不确定性,有必要针对农业气候变化及其对农业影响等开展系统性研究。 相似文献
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Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County,Northeast China 下载免费PDF全文
YU Qiang-yi WU Wen-bin LIU Zhen-huan Peter H Verburg XIA Tian YANG Peng LU Zhongjun YOU Liang-zhi TANG Hua-jun 《农业科学学报》2014,13(7):1599-1608
Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers' personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change) associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data (presents real-world climate change) were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level. A case study at Bin County (1980s–2010s), Northeast China, suggested that increased annual average temperature (0.6°C per decade) and decreased annual precipitation (46 mm per decade, both from meteorological datasets) were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%, respectively, of farmers from the survey, and that a longer growing season was confirmed by 70% of them. These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change: Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice, which led to a significant yield increase for both crops. The longer season also affected crop choice: More farmers selected maize instead of soybean, as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area. Comparing warming-related factors, we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers' agricultural decisions. As a result, crop and variety selection, rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement, was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region. 相似文献
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Climate change has been documented as a major threat to current agricultural strategies. Progress in understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield is essential for agricultural climate adaptation, especially for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(3 H Plain) of China which is an area known to be vulnerable to global warming. In this study, the impacts of climate change on winter wheat(Triticum aestivum L.) yield between the baseline period(1981–2010) and two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) were simulated for the short-term(2010–2039), the medium-term(2040–2069) and the long-term(2070–2099) in the 3 H Plain, by considering the relative contributions of changes in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. Results indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures(TMAX and TMIN), solar radiation(SRAD), and precipitation(PREP) during the winter wheat season increased under these two RCPs. Yield analysis found that wheat yield increased with the increase in SRAD, PREP and CO2 concentration, but decreased with an increase in temperature. Increasing precipitation contributes the most to the total impact, increasing wheat yield by 9.53, 6.62 and 23.73% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 11.74, 16.38 and 27.78% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario. However, as increases in temperature bring higher evapotranspiration, which further aggravated water deficits, the supposed negative effect of increasing thermal resources decreased wheat yield by 1.92, 4.08 and 5.24% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 3.64, 5.87 and 5.81% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario with clearly larger decreases in RCP8.5. Counterintuitively, the impacts in southern sub-regions were positive, but they were all negative in the remaining sub-regions. Our analysis demonstrated that in the 3 H Plain, which is a part of the mid-high latitude region, the effects of increasing thermal resources were counteracted by the aggravated water deficits caused by the increase in temperature. 相似文献
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本溪农业气候资源的变化特征分析 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
[目的]分析本溪农业气候资源的变化特征。[方法]对本溪地区1953-2005年平均温度、降水和日照等的变化特征进行统计分析。[结果]结果表明,本溪气候呈变暖趋势,特别是20世纪90年代以来升温明显,冬季对气候变暖季贡献最大;降水为减少趋势,从1975年开始降水减少明显;日照也呈减少趋势。进一步分析,发现气候变暖导致干旱事件发生的频率增加;降水虽然呈减少趋势,但暴雨次数增加,说明降水强度发生了变化,灾害造成的经济损失在增大。初霜延后,终霜提前,无霜期延长,积温增加明显。[结论]本溪农业气候资源变化必将影响该地农业生产的布局和产业结构的调整。 相似文献
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全球气候变暖加大了我国农业发展的不确定性。本文基于我国气候变化的基本事实,分析了气候变化对我国农业发展的影响。结果表明,气候变化导致气温和降水变化,对我国作物生长、产量和农业潜在生产力等产生重要影响,对作物品质和产量带来直接影响,加剧了农业病虫害的发生和流行,进而加大了对农业经济的影响,同时还影响了我国农业种植制度。本研究为农业生产适应气候变化、确保高质量发展提供了参考。 相似文献
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选取广西88个气象站1961~2009年气温、降水量、干旱指数和广西干旱受灾面积等资料,利用线性倾向计算、阶段性分析、相关分析等方法分析了广西气温、降水量和干旱的变化特征以及气候变化对干旱灾害的影响。结果表明,1961~2009年广西年平均气温和各季平均气温均呈上升趋势;年降水量略呈增加趋势,但年际、年代际变化大,各季降水量变化趋势不一致,春、秋季减少,冬、夏季增加。广西干旱指数、干旱受灾面积均呈上升趋势,特别是秋旱更为突出,20世纪80年代以来严重干旱灾害的频率明显增多。降水时间分布更加不均匀,少雨年的频率增多是干旱加重的主要原因,而气候变暖则加剧了干旱的影响。 相似文献
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2002-2009年东北早熟春玉米生育期及产量变化 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
[目的]分析气候变暖背景下中国东北春玉米生育期及产量的变化趋势,为品种栽培和育种目标方向提供科学依据.[方法]利用2002-2009年国家东北早熟春玉米品种区域试验中对照品种生育期、产量和气候资料等相关数据,分析气候变暖对东北早熟春玉米生产及育种的影响.[结果]对照品种的生育期、营养生长期、花粒期与相应期间的活动积温呈较强的正相关,随着活动积温的增加,生育期和花粒期均有延长的趋势.对照品种产量和年平均气温呈显著正相关(r=0.647*,Sig.=0.041,o=0.05).随着年平均气温的增加,对照品种产量有进一步提高的趋势.同时,随着生产水平、栽培方式等因素的变化,东北玉米种植密度呈增加趋势.[结论]气候变暖显著影响中国东北早熟春玉米的生育期、产量、生产栽培和育种.选育总生育期长、营养生长期短但生殖生长期长,耐密植的高产品种是东北春玉米适应气候变暖的育种方向. 相似文献
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温室效应加剧对农业的影响及其对策 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
论述了温室效应导致全球气候变暖对农业气候带、种植制度、作物生产、作物生长发育、土壤水分、病虫害、气候灾害等方面的影响,并提出了我国因应气候变暖的对策。 相似文献
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东北稻作系统对气候变暖的实际响应与适应 总被引:10,自引:4,他引:6
【目的】明确气候变暖对作物生产的实际影响,降低对未来粮食安全预测的不确定性。【方法】依据东北水稻生产和气候变化的长期观测数据,并结合田间开放式增温试验(free air temperature increase,FATI),系统研究稻作系统对气候变暖的实际响应与适应。【结果】历史数据分析发现,近几十年来东北水稻单产与其生长季的气温呈明显递增趋势,相关显著,但与降水量变化相关不显著。理论推算表明,水稻生长季最低气温升高1℃,水稻单产可提高6.0%以上。田间试验发现,在目前的气温背景下,水稻冠层气温升高1℃,单产可提高10%左右。近四十年来东北水稻新品种的生育期每10年约延长3 d,与近二十年来田间观测到的水稻实际生育期延长幅度基本一致,达5 d左右;与1970年相比,2010年黑龙江省的水稻种植面积扩大了24倍,种植重心向北位移了近110 km,与东北水稻生长季≥10℃有效积温带北移的幅度一致。【结论】气候变暖对东北水稻的直接增产效应显著,稻作系统可以通过品种改良、栽培改进和区域调整等策略来逐步适应气候变化的趋势。在应对气候变化的稻作制度调整上,应充分挖掘增温的增产效应及作物系统的适应潜力,调整时机和幅度应适当迟后于预测的气候变化进程。在气候变暖的大趋势下,要注意因水稻生育期延长和种植区域北扩而可能遭遇的低温冷害等极端性天气。 相似文献