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1.
In the demand for a decision support tool to guide farmers wanting to control Salmonella Dublin (S. Dublin) in Danish dairy herds, we developed an age-structured stochastic, mechanistic and dynamic simulation model of S. Dublin in dairy herds, which incorporated six age groups (neonatal, preweaned calves, weaned calves, growing heifers, breeding heifers and cows) and five infection states (susceptible, acutely infected, carrier, super shedder and resistant). The model simulated population and infection dynamics over a period of 10 years in weekly time steps as: 1) population sizes of each of the six age-groups; 2) S. Dublin incidence and number of animals in each infection state; and 3) S. Dublin related morbidity and mortality in the acutely infected animals. The effects of introducing one infectious heifer on the risk of spread of S. Dublin within the herd and on the duration of infection were estimated through 1000 simulation iterations for 48 scenarios. The scenarios covered all combinations of three herd sizes (70, 200 and 400 cows), four hygiene levels indicating infectious contact parameters, and four herd susceptibility levels indicating different susceptibility parameters for the individual animals in each of the six age groups in the herd. The hygiene level was highly influential on the probability that the infection spread within the herd, duration of infection and epidemic size. The herd susceptibility level was also influential, but not likely to provide sufficient prevention and control of infection on its own. Herd size did not affect the probability of infection spread upon exposure, but the larger the herd the more important were management and housing practices that improve hygiene and reduce susceptibility to shorten durations of infection in the herd and to increase the probability of extinction. In general, disease and mortality patterns followed epidemic waves in the herds. However, an interesting pattern was seen for acute infections and abortions in adult cattle after the first 2 years of infection in herds with poor hygiene and high susceptibility. Repeated infections in young stock lead to a high proportion of resistant adult cattle, which lead to a dampening effect on acute infections in adults and associated abortions. Sensitivity analyses of 24 alternative scenarios showed that a super shedder state was not essential to mimic the infection dynamics and persistence patterns known from field studies, but a persistent carrier state was required in the model to mimic real life S. Dublin infections.  相似文献   

2.
Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica-serotypes lead to periodically increased morbidity and mortality in cattle herds. The bacteria can also lead to serious infections in humans. Consequently, Denmark has started a surveillance and control programme in 2002. The programme focuses on Salmonella Dublin which is the most prevalent and most persistent serotype in the Danish cattle population. A field study in 10 dairy herds with persistent Salmonella infections was carried out over three years to gain experience with control procedures including risk assessment, targeted control actions and test-and-cull procedures. From autumn 2003 until end of 2006 quarterly milk quality control samples from all lactating cows and biannual blood samples from all young stock above the age of three months were tested using an indirect antibody ELISA. The most recent and previous test results were used to categorise all animals into risk groups. These risk groups and all individual ELISA-results were communicated to the farmers as colour-coded lists four to six times per year. Farmers were advised to manage the risk of Salmonella transmission from cattle with repeatedly high ELISA results (flagged as "red") or cows with at least one recent moderately high ELISA result (flagged as "yellow") on the lists. Risk management included, e.g. culling or separation of the cows at calving. We analysed culling decisions using two models. For heifers a hierarchical multivariable logistic model with herd as random effect evaluated if animals with red and yellow flags had higher probability of being slaughtered or sold before first calving than animals without any risk flags. For adult cows a semi-parametric proportional hazard survival model was used to test the effect of number of red and yellow flags on hazards of culling at different time points and interactions with prevalence in the herd while accounting for parity, stage of lactation, milk yield, somatic cell count and the hierarchical structure of the data with animals clustered at herd level. This study illustrates how investigation of culling decisions made by herd managers when they have access to test-status of individual animals and overall apparent prevalence during control of an infection can lead to useful new knowledge. Overall herd managers were more likely to cull cattle with increasing number of yellow and red flags than animals with no flags. However, cattle were more likely to be culled with yellow and red flags during times with low or medium high within-herd seroprevalence than at times with high seroprevalence. These results are valuable knowledge for modelling and planning of control strategies and for making recommendations to farmers about control options.  相似文献   

3.
The Danish government and cattle industry instituted a Salmonella surveillance program in October 2002 to help reduce Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serotype Dublin (S. Dublin) infections. All dairy herds are tested by measuring antibodies in bulk tank milk at 3-month intervals. The program is based on a well-established ELISA, but the overall test program accuracy and misclassification was not previously investigated. We developed a model to simulate repeated bulk tank milk antibody measurements for dairy herds conditional on true infection status. The distributions of bulk tank milk antibody measurements for infected and noninfected herds were determined from field study data. Herd infection was defined as having either >or=1 Salmonella culture-positive fecal sample or >or=5% within-herd prevalence based on antibody measurements in serum or milk from individual animals. No distinction was made between Dublin and other Salmonella serotypes which cross-react in the ELISA. The simulation model was used to estimate the accuracy of herd classification for true herd-level prevalence values ranging from 0.02 to 0.5. Test program sensitivity was 0.95 across the range of prevalence values evaluated. Specificity was inversely related to prevalence and ranged from 0.83 to 0.98. For a true herd-level infection prevalence of 15%, the estimate for specificity (Sp) was 0.96. Also at the 15% herd-level prevalence, approximately 99% of herds classified as negative in the program would be truly noninfected and 80% of herds classified as positive would be infected. The predictive values were consistent with the primary goal of the surveillance program which was to have confidence that herds classified negative would be free of Salmonella infection.  相似文献   

4.
Bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV-1) is an important bovine pathogen, exacerbating poor health and the productivity of cattle. The aims of this study were to detect the efficacy of vaccination programmes in lowering the seroprevalence of BHV-1 gE within the dairy herd and to follow the dynamics of the infection in non-vaccinated herds with uninfected heifers. A two-year longitudinal study was carried out on seven herds that were vaccinated, and in five herds with uninfected heifers without applying a control programme. After the start of the vaccination programme, calves born remained free from the virus. However, in one herd, 7 per cent (95 per cent CI 2 to 18) of these animals showed antibodies to BHV-1 two years after the first vaccination. A decline in BHV-1 antibody prevalence was found in vaccinating herds. Among the five herds not under the control programme, one experienced active virus spread, although one herd experienced self-clearance of the virus. In the herds with high BHV-1 prevalence, vaccinating all cattle from three months of age twice a year with a commercial inactivated marker vaccine efficiently protected offspring from becoming infected, and lowered the prevalence of BHV-1 within the herd. A small proportion of herds may experience self-clearance of the virus.  相似文献   

5.
Epidemiologic investigations of Salmonella infections in dairy cattle often rely on testing fecal samples from individual animals or samples from other farm sources to determine herd infection status. The objectives of this project were to evaluate the effect of sampling frequency on Salmonella isolation and to compare Salmonella isolation and serogroup classification among sample sources on 12 US dairy farms sampled weekly for 7-8 weeks. Three herds per state were enrolled from Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Wisconsin based upon predefined herd-size criteria. Weekly samples were obtained from cattle, bulk tank milk, milk filters, water and feed sources and environmental sites. Samples were submitted to a central laboratory for isolation of Salmonella using standard laboratory procedures. The herd average number of cattle fecal samples collected ranged from 26 to 58 per week. Salmonella was isolated from 9.3% of 4049 fecal samples collected from cattle and 12.9% of 811 samples from other sources. Serogroup C1 was found in more than half of the samples and multiple serogroups were identified among isolates from the same samples and farms. The percentage of herd visits with at least one Salmonella isolate from cattle fecal samples increased with overall herd prevalence of fecal shedding. Only the three herds with an average fecal shedding prevalence of more than 15% had over 85% of weekly visits with at least one positive fecal sample. The prevalence of fecal shedding from different groups of cattle varied widely among herds showing that herds with infected cattle may be classified incorrectly if only one age group is tested. Testing environmental sample sources was more efficient for identifying infected premises than using individual cattle fecal samples.  相似文献   

6.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate prevalence of Salmonella spp in Ohio dairy farms and to identify potential risk factors for fecal shedding of salmonellae. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SAMPLE POPULATION: 105 Ohio dairy farms. PROCEDURE: Individual fecal samples from all mature cows in study herds were tested for Salmonella spp by use of standard bacteriologic culture procedures. Herds were identified as infected if at least 1 cow was shedding Salmonella spp. Information regarding herd characteristics, management practices, and health history were collected. Potential risk factors for herd-level Salmonella infection were identified. RESULTS: In 31% of the study herds (95% confidence interval, 22 to 40%), at least 1 cow was shedding Salmonella spp. Six percent of 7,776 fecal samples contained Salmonella organisms; prevalence within infected herds ranged from < 1 to 97%. Herd size, use of free stalls for lactating and nonlactating cows, and use of straw bedding in nonlactating cows were significantly associated with fecal shedding of Salmonella spp, as determined by use of univariate analysis. By use of multivariate analysis, large herds were more likely to be infected than smaller herds; however, no other factors were associated with Salmonella infection after adjustment for herd size. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Subclinical shedding of Salmonella spp is common in Ohio dairy herds, although we could not identify specific interventions that may influence the prevalence of Salmonella spp on dairy farms. It appears that large herd size and intensive management may provide an environment conducive to Salmonella shedding and chronic dairy herd infection.  相似文献   

7.
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether serologic evaluation of 5 unvaccinated 6- to 12-month-old heifers is a valid method for identifying herds that contain cattle persistently infected (PI) with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV). ANIMALS: 14 dairy herds with a history of BVDV infection, with health problems consistent with BVDV infection, or at risk for contracting BVDV infection. PROCEDURE: 5 unvaccinated 6- to 12-month-old heifers were randomly selected from each herd. Neutralizing antibody titers for type-I and -II BVDV were determined. A herd was classified as likely to contain PI cattle when at least 3/5 heifers had antibody titers > or = 128. Virus isolation was performed on all cattle to identify PI cattle. Genotype of isolated viruses was determined by nested multiplex polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: 6 of 14 herds contained PI cattle. Sensitivity and specificity of serologic evaluation of 5 heifers for identifying these herds were 66 and 100%, respectively. In herds that contained PI cattle, the predominant BVDV titer in the tested heifers corresponded to the genotype of the isolated virus. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Serologic evaluation of unvaccinated 6- to 12- month-old heifers is an accurate method for identifying herds containing PI cattle. Both type-I and -II BVDV antibody titers should be determined to prevent herd misclassification. The genotype of BVDV found in PI cattle can be predicted by the predominant neutralizing antibody titers found in tested heifers. Serologic evaluation of 5 unvaccinated heifers can be used to determine whether a herd is likely to contain PI cattle.  相似文献   

8.
Based on 2 previous surveys on the occurrence of infection with bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in Danish and Michigan dairy herds, the prevalence and incidence of the infection were compared. The presence of certain possible risk factors for the occurrence of infection in the 2 areas were summarized and it was investigated if any of these risk factors had significant effect on the presence of animals persistently infected (PI) with BVDV in the dairy herds. Information on the cattle population density in the 2 areas was obtained from statistical yearbooks. Further information for the individual farms on age distribution, housing of animals, herd size, pasturing and purchasing policy was gathered. The prevalence of PI animals was more than 10 times higher in Denmark as compared to Michigan. In herds without PI animals, the annual incidence of seroconversion as calculated from the age specific prevalence of antibody carriers varied in most age groups between 20–25% in Denmark and between 5–10% in Michigan. All investigated risk factors except for herd size were in favour of a lower prevalence of infection in Michigan. The use of having animals on pasture and at the same time having purchased more than 40 animals within recent 31/2–4 years were significantly associated with presence of PI animals in the dairy herds (p = 0.01) when tested by the Mantel-Haenszel χ2. Using mul-tivariable logistic regression, the occurrence of PI animals was found to be significantly related to the study area (Michigan and Denmark) as well as to herd size and purchase intensity.  相似文献   

9.
Salmonella is a cause of concern in the cattle industry, because it is a zoonosis causing severe invasive infections in humans and because it causes economic and welfare losses in infected herds. In general, cattle in the Netherlands are infected with two types; Salmonella Dublin and Salmonella Typhimurium. Both types cause clinical signs but S. Dublin outbreaks are more prevalent and clinical signs are more severe than S. Typhimurium outbreaks. Our knowledge of the transmission of Salmonella within herds is still limited, while this is an essential component for modelling the success of intervention strategies to control Salmonella. The aim of our study was to estimate the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)), the number of secondary cases produced from each primary case in a totally susceptible population, for S. Dublin and S. Typhimurium in dairy herds. Serological data were obtained from eight farms with a clinical outbreak of Salmonella, two with an outbreak of S. Dublin and 6 of S. Typhimurium. R(0) was estimated from the serological data of the herds that were in an endemic state of the infection. R(0) across herds was estimated to be 2.5 (95% CI 1.7-9.8) and 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.7) for S. Dublin and S. Typhimurium, respectively. The between herd variation was significant and fairly large. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the R(0) estimate was not sensitive for changes in the latent, infectious or seropositive periods. The R(0) estimates indicated that the infection would not spread very extensively in susceptible populations under management systems similar to the ones in the study herds.  相似文献   

10.
Studies reporting on how to control Salmonella in cattle herds have mainly been theoretical simulation models or case reports describing control of clinical salmonellosis outbreaks. The objective of this observational study was to investigate which management routines were associated with successful control of Salmonella Dublin in calves in dairy herds with previous signs of endemic infection. A total of 86 bulk-tank milk Salmonella Dublin antibody-positive bovine dairy herds were enrolled in the study in September 2008 and were all encouraged to control spread of the infection. One year later it was assessed if they were successful. The criterion for successful control was defined as the 10 youngest calves above three months of age testing Salmonella Dublin antibody-negative, indicating that exposure to Salmonella of these calves from birth until close to the day of testing had been successfully prevented. Management routines were registered through telephone interviews based on a questionnaire resulting in 45 variables for analysis. By the end of the study, a total of 84 herds had completed the interviews and had serum samples collected from calves. Data were analysed using two statistical methods: logistic regression analysis and discriminant analysis. Both analyses identified that increased probability of successful control was strongly associated with avoiding purchase of cattle from test-positive herds. Additionally, ensuring good calving area management, separating calf pens by solid walls rather than bars and not introducing biosecurity routines between the barn sections (e.g. boot wash, change of clothing) were associated with increased probability of successful control in the logistic analysis. The latter may seem illogical, but may be explained by successful herds already having good hygienic routines in place and therefore not having introduced new routines between barn sections in the study period. The discriminant analysis furthermore identified successful control to be associated with preventing cows from calving before being moved to the designated calving pen, by only letting one person be responsible for colostrum management and by not feeding poorer quality colostrum to bull calves than to heifer calves. The results are useful for dairy cattle producers and veterinary authorities to substantiate advice on management practices that are likely to lead to successful control of Salmonella Dublin.  相似文献   

11.
ABSTRACT: Epidemiological models enable to better understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and to assess ex-ante control strategies. For Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), possible transmission routes have been described, but Map spread in a herd and the relative importance of the routes are currently insufficiently understood to prioritize control measures. We aim to predict early after Map introduction in a dairy cattle herd whether infection is likely to fade out or persist, when no control measures are implemented, using a modelling approach. Both vertical transmission and horizontal transmission via the ingestion of colostrum, milk, or faeces present in the contaminated environment were modelled. Calf-to-calf indirect transmission was possible. Six health states were represented: susceptible, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, clinically affected, and resistant. The model was partially validated by comparing the simulated prevalence with field data. Housing facilities and contacts between animals were specifically considered for calves and heifers. After the introduction of one infected animal in a naive herd, fadeout occurred in 66% of the runs. When Map persisted, the prevalence of infected animals increased to 88% in 25 years. The two main transmission routes were via the farm's environment and in utero transmission. Calf-to-calf transmission was minor. Fadeout versus Map persistence could be differentiated with the number of clinically affected animals, which was rarely above one when fadeout occurred. Therefore, early detection of affected animals is crucial in preventing Map persistence in dairy herds.  相似文献   

12.
Objective: To investigate the presence of Salmonella Dublin in Queensland cattle.
Design: An epidemiological study using diagnostic laboratory information and farm records.
Procedure: Outbreaks of gastroenteritis or pneumonia in calves, and abortions and enteritis in cows were routinely investigated for the presence of salmonellae. Where S Dublin was isolated, attempts were made to gather further epidemiological information.
Results: Prior to 1983 only two outbreaks of S Dublin have been recorded in Queensland dairy cattle. In 1983 S Dublin abortions were diagnosed in dairy heifers introduced from southern Australia to south-east Queensland. Sampling indicated that at least 10% of the 500 introduced heifers were faecal excretors of S Dublin. On 3 of the 7 farms from which S Dublin was recorded, infection spread to other cattle that were in contact. From February 1985 to February 1996, 29 outbreaks of S Dublin in cattle occurred on 29 farms (28 in south east Queensland and 1 in north Queensland). Calves were primarily affected. Continuing outbreaks were confirmed on only 4 of these 29 farms. On 15 farms S Dublin infections were associated with the purchase of infected calves or cows, while another farm adjoined 2 previously infected farms. No source of S Dublin was evident for the other 13 farms, where histories were often inadequate.
Conclusion: There has been a marked increase in S Dublin outbreaks in Queensland dairy cattle since 1983. Introduction of S Dublin carrier and aborting dairy heifers from southern Australia, where S Dublin is not uncommon, was associated with the initial outbreaks.  相似文献   

13.
In herds with known prevalence (P) use of environmental sampling (ES) to detect Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infected cattle herds was proofed in relation to P. In 31 MAP-infected free stall dairy herds and 15 non-infected herds P was defined by annually repeated whole herd testing by fecal culture (34 877 individual samples). Eight infected herds had a very low (> 0-2%), 14 a low (> 2-5%), four a medium (> 5-10%), and five a high P (> 10%). A mean number of nine environmental samples per herd were collected from the floor of lactating cows, milking, calving and sick cow areas and the crossover to the calf area. After twelve weeks cultivation on HEYM-medium with and without mycobactin positive samples were further characterized by PCR. All non-infected herds (100%) showed negative and 22 (71%) of the infected herds positive results in ES. Nine infected herds with negative ES results had a low P (0.04-4,04%). Proportion of positive ES depended on P and on sampling areas with 53.3% positive results in lactating cow areas and 45.2% in milking areas. For P > 5%, ES in these two areas caused a positive herd status; herds with P < 5% required sampling in the other areas too. The ES method has a herd sensitivity of 87% for dairy herds with P > 2% and provides an efficient tool to determine MAP infection status or herd prevalence.  相似文献   

14.
Within-herd transmission of pathogens occurs either by direct or by indirect contact between susceptible and infected animals. In dairy herds that are structured into groups, the way in which animals encounter each other and share an environment can affect pathogen transmission. Dairy cattle are heterogeneous in terms of susceptibility and infectivity with respect to Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) transmission. It is mainly young animals that are susceptible and adults that are infectious. Both vertical and horizontal transmission through the ingestion of Map shed into the environment by adults and transiently infected calves can occur. Our objective was to assess the effect of contact structure on Map transmission in persistently infected dairy herds and to examine the effect of isolating calves from other calves or from adults before weaning. We developed a stochastic compartmental model of Map transmission in a closed dairy herd. The model reflects the Map infection process and herd management characteristics. Indirect transmission via the environment was modelled explicitly. Six infection states (susceptible, resistant, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, and clinically affected) and two contaminated farm area environments (whole farm and calf area) were modelled. Calves were housed in hutches, individual indoor pens, or group indoor pens. Two different levels of exposure of calves to a farm environment contaminated by adults were possible: no exposure and indirect exposure through fomites. Three herd sizes were studied. We found that contacts between calves before weaning did not influence Map transmission in a herd, whereas the level of exposure of calves to an environment contaminated by adults and the starting age of exposure of calves to adults were pivotal. Early culling of clinically affected adults led to a lower prevalence of infectious adults over time. The results were independent of herd size. Despite the many transmission routes that are known, the best control approach is to limit the exposure of calves to adult faeces through the systematic separation of adults and calves in combination with hygiene measures. Reducing contact between calves does not appear effective.  相似文献   

15.
The herd seroprevalence of bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) was studied in 59 dairy cattle herds using serology on random selected animals stratified by two age classes (heifers, cows). Risk factors for primary infections in heifers were investigated using a questionnaire on management conditions and data on bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) status. At least one seropositive cow was present in all the herds. In 25% of the herds all individual were seropositive and 22% of herds had all heifers seronegative. Analysis of the influence of risk factors retained summer pasture and BVD status. In particular, absence of summer pasture and the BVD positive status of heifers were associated with an increased risk of BRSV infection in heifers group.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
Coxiella burnetii is the causal agent of Q fever, a worldwide spread zoonosis. Prevention of C. burnetii shedding in cattle is critical to control the spread of the pathogen between animals, and from animals to humans. Vaccination with a phase 1 vaccine has been shown to be effective in preventing shedding when implemented in still susceptible animals, even in infected cattle herds. The identification of these animals (dairy cows and nulliparous females) as targets for vaccination consequently is crucial. Hygiene measures conventionally also are implemented, but their relative impact on C. burnetii diffusion remains unknown. The objectives of this study therefore were to (i) describe the distribution of the within-herd apparent seroprevalence among cows and nulliparous females and (ii) to explore the association between management practices and herd characteristics on the one hand, and these seroprevalences on the other. In a sample of 100 naturally and clinically infected dairy herds, blood samples were taken systematically from all nulliparous females (older than 12 months) and cows, and serologically tested. Information on herd characteristics and management practices were collected through a questionnaire filled in by each farmer. The variation in within-herd seroprevalence among cows and the risk for a herd of having at least one seropositive nulliparous female were investigated using multivariate (linear and logistic respectively) regression models. Median within-herd seroprevalence was 0.32 (Q1=0.22; Q3=0.43). We observed a low to null (median=0.01; Q1=0; Q3=0.10) within-herd seroprevalence in nulliparous females contrary to a high value (median=0.42) and variability (Q1=0.28; Q3=0.56) in cows. Only a few herd characteristics and management practices were found to be related to seroprevalence. Within-herd seroprevalence in cows was found to be significantly (P<0.10) higher in herds (i) with a number of cows<46, (ii) with seasonal calving, and (iii) with grazing or contact through the fence with other ruminant herds. The risk of having at least one seropositive nulliparous female was increased in herds (i) with seasonal calving and (ii) where the foetus and/or the placenta of aborted cows were not systematically removed. Our findings support, in addition to the implementation of high level of hygiene measures, the relevance of vaccination (at least in nulliparous females) as a method to control the spread of C. burnetii within an infected herd, as vaccination is effective in susceptible animals and given that nulliparous females are mostly not infected even in infected herds.  相似文献   

18.
Natural transmission of bovine leukaemia virus (BLV) infection in south-eastern Queensland dairy herds was slow in 2 herds with a low to moderate (13 to 22%) prevalence of infection. Infection spread much more rapidly in a herd that had a higher prevalence (42%) when first tested. In a 13 month study of this herd, the cumulative incidence of infection was 24%. In one herd new infections were confined almost entirely to calves of uninfected dams. Following the end of feeding bulk milk to calves, a common practice in dairy herds, no more calves in this herd became infected. In laboratory experiments, neither prolonged housing of susceptible calves with infected cattle, consumption of drinking water contaminated with infected blood, nor inoculation of sheep with saliva from infected cattle resulted in transmission of BLV infection. Sheep were infected by subcutaneous inoculation of a suspension of purified lymphocytes from an infected heifer. The minimum infective dose was 10(3) lymphocytes, equivalent to the number of lymphocytes in approximately 0.1 microliter blood. Thus, procedures involving the transfer of a very small volume of blood from animal-to-animal have the potential to transmit infection.  相似文献   

19.
ABSTRACT: Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii. The control of this infection in cattle is crucial: infected ruminants can indeed encounter reproductive disorders and represent the most important source of human infection. In the field, vaccination is currently advised in infected herds but the comparative effectiveness of different vaccination protocols has never been explored: the duration of the vaccination programme and the category of animals to be vaccinated have to be determined. Our objective was to compare, by simulation, the effectiveness over 10 years of three different vaccination strategies in a recently infected dairy cattle herd.A stochastic individual-based epidemic model coupled with a model of herd demography was developed to simulate three temporal outputs (shedder prevalence, environmental bacterial load and number of abortions) and to calculate the extinction rate of the infection. For all strategies, the temporal outputs were predicted to strongly decrease with time at least in the first years of vaccination. However, vaccinating only three years was predicted inadequate to stabilize these dynamic outputs at a low level. Vaccination of both cows and heifers was predicted as being slightly more effective than vaccinating heifers only. Although the simulated extinction rate of the infection was high for both scenarios, the outputs decreased slower when only heifers were vaccinated.Our findings shed new light on vaccination effectiveness related to Q fever. Moreover, the model can be further modified for simulating and assessing various Q fever control strategies such as environmental and hygienic measures.  相似文献   

20.
A three-year study of Salmonella dublin infection in a closed dairy herd   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Over a period of three years, Salmonella dublin was isolated occasionally from the faeces of nine adult cattle in a closed dairy herd. The organism was also isolated from 12 of the samples collected after parturition; isolations were made from newborn calves on 11 occasions, from a vaginal swab once and from a milk sample once. Nine of the isolations from the calves were made from swabs obtained within 24 hours of birth. Throughout the investigation isolations were made from heifers, steers and older calves and 11 infected animals were detected. S. dublin was widespread in the farm environment and it was concluded that environmental contamination was an important source of infection for animals of all ages, some of which may have become latent carriers. The family history of one cow, seven of whose offspring were infected with S dublin, suggested the possibility of vertical transmission. Without reliable tests to detect latent carriers, it is suggested that control of this infection must be based on improved hygiene and the use of vaccination to improve the immunity of the herd.  相似文献   

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