共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
基于气温及降水数据,运用Thornthwaite Memorial模型,分析了气候变化背景下中国未来(2021-2099年)RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景相对于基准期(1986-2005年)气候生产潜力的时空分布及动态变化特征。结果表明:基准期、未来RCP4.5及RCP8.5情景下中国气候生产潜力(CPP)年均值分别为754.14、878.48、920.34g/(m~2·a)。未来CPP呈显著增加趋势,但并未发生突变。其中,RCP4.5情景下年均增加124.34g/(m~2·a),只21世纪前半叶显著增加;RCP8.5情景下年均增加166.20g/(m~2·a),21世纪前半、后半叶均显著增加,且后半叶增幅更大。未来RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下中国CPP呈年代际递增趋势,20年代最低,分别为841.90、849.94g/(m~2·a),90年代最高,分别为894.43、1001.44g/(m~2·a);随着年代增加距平百分率由负到正,增幅逐渐变大。在空间上CPP总体呈现出从西北向东南逐渐递增的带状分布。未来CPP在大部分区域都增加,增幅在北部大于南部,大部分地区增幅在300g/(m~2·a)以下,只有西北部分地区增幅超过600g/(m~2·a),最高达14倍。在西、南部少数地区,未来CPP将下降,最大降幅为293g/(m~2·a)(93%)。该研究对于未来合理利用气候资源、科学应对气候变化、实施可持续发展战略具有一定的指导意义。 相似文献
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中亚地区是落实我国"一带一路"发展倡议的关键地区,雨养农业区作为中亚重要粮食主产区,对世界和区域粮食安全具有重要意义。本文基于参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的7个全球气候模式(GCM),分析了未来30 a(2021—2050年)气候变化情景下中亚雨养农业区降水量的空间分布及其变化趋势;然后根据适宜农作物种植的高程、坡度和土壤类型等条件,识别出雨养农业区宜农耕地分布;采用基于数列匹配度和单位面积水资源量法,预估了未来中亚雨养农业区水土资源匹配格局的时空变化。研究结果表明:(1)未来气候变化情景下,中亚雨养农业区年均降水空间分布自东北向西南降低,东部地区降水呈弱增加趋势,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下降水增幅分别为1.10 mm·a~(-1)和1.61 mm·a~(-1),西部呈减少趋势,但不显著;与RCP4.5情景相比,21世纪中期,RCP8.5情景下全年可利用降水量增加了9.8 mm。(2)宜农耕地资源丰富,空间分布差异相对较小,北部地区以现有耕地为主,南部和东部地区后备耕地资源充足。(3)在两种RCP情景下,中亚雨养农业区未来30 a水土资源匹配度大部分处于0.6以上,总体处于较好匹配水平,且RCP8.5情景优于RCP4.5;与全年水土匹配相比,生长季水土资源空间匹配极不均衡,东部和北部地区匹配系数大部分处于0.84以上,而南部和西部地区均低于0.70。总体上,未来气候变化将对中亚雨养农业区粮食生产产生双重影响,本文也提出提升应对气候变化能力的相关措施。 相似文献
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《干旱区研究》2021,38(3):695-703
中巴经济走廊是"一带一路"倡议的重要组成部分,深入认识该地区气候变化时空分布特征和规律,对于项目顺利实施和安全保障有重大意义。采用CRU TSv4.04逐月地面气候要素数据集,分析1980—2019年中巴经济走廊地区气温、降水、干湿状况的气候变化时空分布特征。结果表明:中巴经济走廊地区气温呈显著上升趋势,中部地区增温速率低于两端地区,最低温度增温速率最快,为0.37℃·(10a)~(-1);平均气温次之,增温速率为0.32℃·(10a)~(-1);最高温度增温速率最慢,为0.29℃·(10a)~(-1)。降水量、降水日数与干湿变化的区域性差异较大,其中巴基斯坦西南部降水量显著减少,最大速率为-20 mm·(10a)~(-1),变干趋势明显;巴基斯坦中部地区降水日数显著增加,最大速率为4 d·(10a)~(-1)。 相似文献
4.
石羊河流域地处我国西北干旱区和季风区边缘，流域内绿洲农业的快速发展导致水资源开发利用程度极高，生态环境脆弱，未来气候变化加剧了流域水资源的不确定性，对粮食安全与经济发展构成威胁。本文基于观测数据，评估第6次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的11个气候模式在石羊河流域的模拟能力，用等距离累积分布函数法对气候数据进行降尺度，得到该流域的未来气候变化趋势。结果表明：（1）CMIP6模式数据在石羊河流域具有良好的适用性，多模式集合平均数据对石羊河流域降水和气温的模拟性能均优于其他模式。（2）未来不同情景下（2023—2100年），流域内降水量、气温和潜在蒸散发量均呈显著上升趋势，且随着辐射强迫增加而增大。（3）未来时期石羊河流域的干燥度指数整体减小，流域气候趋向暖湿化，且民勤盆地是流域内对气候变化最敏感的地区。研究结果对于石羊河流域应对气候变化、保障经济和农业可持续发展具有重要的参考价值。 相似文献
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近60 a来,黄河流域的气候发生了明显的改变,对流域地表水文、生态等过程产生了显著影响。利用1961—2018年黄河流域气象站观测的降水资料,分析了近60 a黄河流域降水时空变化特征,在此基础上,利用CMIP6模式中SSP245情景下未来30 a（2018—2047年）的预估结果,结合基于周期叠加的统计预估方法,对未来30 a黄河流域降水的可能变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明：黄河流域降水存在明显的年内、年际和年代际变化特征,显著振荡周期为2～4 a。在整个流域上,年和季节降水在年际尺度上表现出同位相变化特征,而年际变化异常显著区域不同。黄河流域年降水量的变率受季节降水的调制,夏季的降水多而呈现出强烈的区域性,而冬季降水少且全流域变化差异较小;黄河源区的降水在年内和年际尺度上都具有很好的稳定性;流域内受夏季风活动影响区域内的降水减少,受冬季风影响区域内的降水增加。黄河源区过去60 a的年降水表现出20.96 mm·（10a）-1的增加趋势;预计未来30 a,年降水将以11.53～17.62 mm·（10a）-1的速率继续增加;河套地区的年降水在过... 相似文献
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基于全球气候模式NorESM1-M产生的RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5气候变化情景数据,利用国家原环境保护部推荐的土壤风蚀扬尘计算方法,模拟分析了未来气候变化对河北坝上砂粘壤土、粘壤土、壤粘土、砂壤土、砂粘土和风沙土不留茬农田土壤风蚀扬尘总可悬浮颗粒物（Total suspended particle, TSP）、 PM10和PM2.5的季节和年排放速率影响。结果显示：气候变化影响下坝上地区气温上升,年降水量和风速波动较大,不同情景下变化趋势不同。RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景与基准情景下比较,不同土壤风蚀扬尘TSP、PM10和PM2.5季节排放速率在春季分别高15%、47%、28%和46%,夏季分别高1%、14%、3%和7%,秋季分别高17%、54%、45%和38%,冬季分别低36%、42%、39%和44%。在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下与基准情景下比较,按月排放累加计算,各土壤风蚀扬尘TSP、PM10<... 相似文献
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利用英国东英格利亚大学CRU(Climatic Research Unit)逐月降水格点数据,评估耦合模式比较计划CMIP5多模式集合数据对朝鲜地区气象要素的模拟能力,并通过SPI旱涝指数预估不同典型浓度路径情景下朝鲜干旱时空特征。结果表明:1)CMIP5多模式集合数据对朝鲜地区降水的空间分布有一定的模拟能力,并能很好的反映出月降水量的波动变化;2)三种典型浓度路径情景下,朝鲜地区降水表现出增长趋势,西部地区降水增幅大于东部;3)三种典型浓度路径情景下,朝鲜干旱均有所缓解;RCP4.5情景与基准期相比干旱发生频率有所降低,轻旱和中旱发生频率"南增北减"。 相似文献
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9.
基于第5次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）提供的气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）数据和气溶胶单因子历史试验降水数据，采用线性趋势分析、相关分析、经验正交分解（EOF）方法，从时间和空间维度上分析了自工业革命以来中国AOD的变化及其对降水的影响。1860—2000年，中国区域的AOD整体呈显著增加的趋势（P<0.001），AOD的增加趋势以胡焕庸线为界呈现出“东高西低”的空间分布格局，并在1945年以后AOD的增加趋势〔0.380 7·(100a)-1〕显著大于1945年以前的趋势〔0.029 0·(100a)-1〕。在气溶胶单因子驱动试验中，中国有89.1%区域的降水呈显著减少的趋势（P<0.001），其中东南部、四川盆地以及青藏高原东南部是降水减少最明显的区域，西北地区降水减少趋势较弱，并在1962年以后降水的减少趋势〔118.04 mm·(100a)-1〕显著大于1962年以前的趋势〔26.67 mm·(100a)-1〕。气溶胶主要通过抑制弱降水显著降低了降水事件发生的频率与降水强度，降低速率分别为3.160 d·(100a)-1、0.162 4 mm·d-1·(100a)-1。研究工业革命以来气溶胶对降水的气候效应，为更好的应对区域气候变化问题提供科学依据。 相似文献
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石羊河流域近45年气温和降水特征分析 总被引：16，自引：6，他引：10
利用1961-2005年石羊河流域上游(古浪)、中游(凉州区)、下游(民勤)当地气象站的气温、降水资料,分析了石羊河流域的气候变化特征.结果表明:45年来,流域气温总体呈上升趋势,20世纪60-80年代气温呈降低的趋势,而90年代开始到21世纪初气温呈上升趋势.年平均气温的升高主要是冬季和秋季增温的贡献.降水总体上呈相对增多趋势,上、中、下游降水的年代际变化呈现出不同的特点,降水分布不均.流域内降水量夏季最多,秋季次之,冬季最少;石羊河流域平均气温异常偏暖集中在90年代末到21世纪初,异常偏冷集中在60年代末;石羊河流域降水异常偏多出现在70年代和90年代,异常偏少出现在60年代. 相似文献
11.
Climate change in mountainous regions has significant impacts on hydrological and ecological systems. This research studied the future temperature, precipitation and snowfall in the 21~(st) century for the Tianshan and northern Kunlun Mountains(TKM) based on the general circulation model(GCM) simulation ensemble from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5(CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway(RCP) lower emission scenario RCP4.5 and higher emission scenario RCP8.5 using the Bayesian model averaging(BMA) technique. Results show that(1) BMA significantly outperformed the simple ensemble analysis and BMA mean matches all the three observed climate variables;(2) at the end of the 21~(st) century(2070–2099) under RCP8.5, compared to the control period(1976–2005), annual mean temperature and mean annual precipitation will rise considerably by 4.8°C and 5.2%, respectively, while mean annual snowfall will dramatically decrease by 26.5%;(3) precipitation will increase in the northern Tianshan region while decrease in the Amu Darya Basin. Snowfall will significantly decrease in the western TKM. Mean annual snowfall fraction will also decrease from 0.56 of 1976–2005 to 0.42 of 2070–2099 under RCP8.5; and(4) snowfall shows a high sensitivity to temperature in autumn and spring while a low sensitivity in winter, with the highest sensitivity values occurring at the edge areas of TKM. The projections mean that flood risk will increase and solid water storage will decrease. 相似文献
12.
黄河源区是气候变化敏感区及生态环境脆弱区,也是黄河的主要产流区,其气候变化问题备受关注。利用黄河源区均一化气温和降水观测数据,系统分析了近60 a黄河源区平均气候与极端气候事件的变化特征。结果表明:1960—2019年黄河源区年平均气温、平均最高及最低气温表现出增温趋势的一致性,且源区东部增温幅度高于西部;黄河源区年均气温在2000年前后发生突变转折,转折后升温速率达0.61℃·(10a)-1,高于1960—2019年的增温率0.37℃·(10a)-1。1960—2019年黄河源区年降水量总体呈微弱增加趋势[7.6 mm·(10a)-1],2003年后进入降水偏多阶段,近10 a(2010—2019年)源区平均年降水量达到610 mm;春、夏、冬季降水增多,秋季降水减少;其中源区东部夏、秋季降水减少明显,阶段性干旱风险加剧。近10 a源区平均气温、降水量均为60 a来最高值,总体处于最暖湿阶段。受持续暖湿化影响,1960—2019年黄河源区平均极端气温阈值呈显著的增大趋势,而霜冻日数减少;年最大3日降水量和强降水日数增多,降水强度增大,其中尤以夏季最为显著,对源区生态保护和水资源利用乃至黄河全流域高质量发展均可能带来风险挑战。 相似文献
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Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources. This study simulated the impact of climate change on the runoff generation and streamflow of Chu River Basin(CRB), a glacierized basin in Central Asia using the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT). The model was calibrated and validated using the measured monthly streamflow data from three discharge gauge stations in CRB for the period 1961–1985 and was subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models(GCMs) in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) under three radiative forcing scenarios(RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In this study, the period 1966–1995 was used as the baseline period, while 2016–2045 and 2066–2095 as the near-future and far-future period, respectively. As projected, the climate would become warmer and drier under all scenarios in the future, and the future climate would be characterized by larger seasonal and annual variations under higher RCP. A general decreasing trend was identified in the average annual runoff in glacier(–26.6% to –1.0%), snow(–21.4% to +1.1%) and streamflow(–27.7% to –6.6%) for most of the future scenario periods. The projected maximum streamflow in each of the two future scenarios occurred one month earlier than that in the baseline period because of the reduced streamflow in summer months. Results of this study are expected to arouse the serious concern about water resource availability in the headwater region of CRB under the continuously warming climate. Changes in simulated hydrologic outputs underscored the significance of lowering the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation projection. 相似文献
14.
近40 a内蒙古正蓝旗气候变化特征 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
气候变化特征对于当地适应气候变化政策及制定相应的管理对策具有重要意义,利用内蒙古锡林郭勒盟正蓝旗1970-2009年气温和降水资料,结合回归分析对该旗气候变化的主要特征进行了分析。结果表明：内蒙古正蓝旗气温呈明显的上升趋势,变化倾向率为0.57 ℃·（10a)-1,40 a平均气温为2.26 ℃,其中21世纪初前10 a上升幅度最大,其年代平均气温攀升至峰值,达到3.07 ℃;降水量也呈上升趋势,其变化倾向率为4.85 mm·（10a）-1,40 a平均降水量为352.31 mm,其中20世纪90年代降水量最高,达到398.74 mm,而21世纪初前10 a降水量迅速下降,成为近40 a降水量最低点,低于多年平均降水量19.62 mm。总体而言,正蓝旗20世纪70年代趋于相对干冷,80年代则由相对干冷向暖湿发展的过渡期,而90年代正蓝旗呈相对明显的暖湿化趋势,21世纪前10 a降水量减少和气温继续升高,出现暖干化趋势。 相似文献
15.
ZHANG Xueting 《干旱区科学》2022,14(2):139-153
As important freshwater resources in alpine basins, glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming, thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development. However, impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited. This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 (RCP, Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial, agricultural, service, and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6% and 74.5% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090s relative to the baseline period (1980-2010), respectively. Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario, the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×106 and 537.20×106 CNY in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×106 CNY. We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses, respectively. The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater. These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions, industrial transformation, and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future. 相似文献
16.
1961-2017年柴达木盆地干湿状况及其影响因子 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据1961—2017年柴达木盆地8个气象站数据资料,采用联合国粮农组织FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散量,继而算得湿润指数,辅以气候倾向率、M-K检验、Morlet小波周期和主成分分析等方法,探究柴达木盆地干湿变化特征及影响因素。结果表明:1961—2017年,柴达木盆地整体具有变湿趋势,变化倾向率为0.007·(10a)~(-1)(α≥0.001),且湿润指数年际变化波动较大,变异系数为30.73%,春、夏、秋、冬四季湿润指数均呈上升趋势,倾向率分别为0.003·(10a)~(-1)、0.009·(10a)~(-1)、0.004·(10a)~(-1)、0.003·(10a)~(-1);空间变化差异显著,盆地东部地区变湿趋势大于西部,德令哈和都兰变湿趋势最为显著;湿润指数在1981年和1986年发生突变,且存在2.8 a和3.6 a(α≥0.05)的变化周期,与大气环流2～4 a周期较吻合;主成分分析表明,降水量和平均气温是柴达木盆地湿润指数的主要影响因子。此外,湿润指数与北半球极涡面积和强度及亚洲区极涡面积和强度关系密切,相关系数分别为-0.46、-0.36、-0.49、-0.47,均通过99%的显著性检验。 相似文献
17.
Farhad YAZDANDOOST 《干旱区科学》2021,13(9):891-904
Zarrineh River is located in the northwest of Iran, providing more than 40% of the total inflow into the Lake Urmia that is one of the largest saltwater lakes on the earth. Lake Urmia is a highly endangered ecosystem on the brink of desiccation. This paper studied the impacts of climate change on the streamflow of Zarrineh River. The streamflow was simulated and projected for the period 1992-2050 through seven CMIP5 (coupled model intercomparison project phase 5) data series (namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) under RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathways) and RCP8.5. The model data series were statistically downscaled and bias corrected using an artificial neural network (ANN) technique and a Gamma based quantile mapping bias correction method. The best model (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0) was chosen by the TOPSIS (technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution) method from seven CMIP5 models based on statistical indices. For simulation of streamflow, a rainfall-runoff model, the hydrologiska byrans vattenavdelning (HBV-Light) model, was utilized. Results on hydro-climatological changes in Zarrineh River basin showed that the mean daily precipitation is expected to decrease from 0.94 and 0.96 mm in 2015 to 0.65 and 0.68 mm in 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. In the case of temperature, the numbers change from 12.33°C and 12.37°C in 2015 to 14.28°C and 14.32°C in 2050. Corresponding to these climate scenarios, this study projected a decrease of the annual streamflow of Zarrineh River by half from 2015 to 2050 as the results of climatic changes will lead to a decrease in the annual streamflow of Zarrineh River from 59.49 m3/s in 2015 to 22.61 and 23.19 m3/s in 2050. The finding is of important meaning for water resources planning purposes, management programs and strategies of the Lake's endangered ecosystem. 相似文献
18.
SUN Dingzhao 《干旱区科学》2022,14(4):390-410
Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore, integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus of ecosystem service assessment. In this study, we established a model that integrates land use/cover change (LUCC), climate change, and water retention services to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water retention services in the Loess Plateau of China in the historical period (2000-2015) and in the future (2020-2050). An improved Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model was used to simulate land use/land cover patterns, and ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to simulate and assess water retention services from 2000 to 2050 under six combined scenarios, including three land use/land cover scenarios (historical scenario (HS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and urban expansion scenario (UES)) and two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP is the representative concentration pathway). LUCCs in the historical period (2000-2015) and in the future (2020-2050) are dominated by transformations among agricultural land, urban land and grassland. Urban land under UES increased significantly by 0.63×103 km2/a, which was higher than the increase of urban land under HS and EPS. In the Loess Plateau, water yield decreased by 17.20×106 mm and water retention increased by 0.09×106 mm in the historical period (2000-2015), especially in the Interior drainage zone and its surrounding areas. In the future (2020-2050), the pixel means of water yield is higher under RCP4.5 scenario (96.63 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario (95.46 mm), and the pixel means of water retention is higher under RCP4.5 scenario (1.95 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario (1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows the highest total water retention capacity on the plateau scale among the six combined scenarios, with the value of 1.27×106 mm. Ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau have enhanced soil and water retention. However, more attention needs to be paid not only to the simultaneous increase in water retention services and evapotranspiration but also to the type and layout of restored vegetation. Furthermore, urbanization needs to be controlled to prevent uncontrollable LUCCs and climate change. Our findings provide reference data for the regional water and land resources management and the sustainable development of socio-ecological systems in the Loess Plateau under LUCC and climate change scenarios. 相似文献
19.
Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
ESCALANTE-SANDOVAL Carlos 《干旱区科学》2017,9(1):65-75
Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico(i.e., the studied area), where the mean annual precipitation(MAP) is less than 500 mm, have suffered even more from droughts in the past. The aim of this study was to conduct a meteorological drought analysis of the available MAP data(1950–2013) from 649 meteorological stations selected from the studied area and to predict the drought features under the different IPCC-prescribed climate change scenarios. To determine the long-term drought features, we collected 1×10~4 synthetic samples using the periodic autoregressive moving average(PARMA) model for each rainfall series. The simulations first consider the present prevailing precipitation conditions(i.e., the average from 1950 to 2013) and then the precipitation anomalies under IPCC-prescribed RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario. The results indicated that the climate changes under the prescribed scenarios would significantly increase the duration and intensity of droughts. The most severe impacts may occur in the central plateau and in the Baja California Peninsula. Thus, it will be necessary to establish adequate protective measures for the sustainable management of water resources in these regions. 相似文献