共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Recent plant diversity changes on Europe's mountain summits 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Pauli H Gottfried M Dullinger S Abdaladze O Akhalkatsi M Benito Alonso JL Coldea G Dick J Erschbamer B Fernández Calzado R Ghosn D Holten JI Kanka R Kazakis G Kollár J Larsson P Moiseev P Moiseev D Molau U Molero Mesa J Nagy L Pelino G Puşcaş M Rossi G Stanisci A Syverhuset AO Theurillat JP Tomaselli M Unterluggauer P Villar L Vittoz P Grabherr G 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2012,336(6079):353-355
In mountainous regions, climate warming is expected to shift species' ranges to higher altitudes. Evidence for such shifts is still mostly from revisitations of historical sites. We present recent (2001 to 2008) changes in vascular plant species richness observed in a standardized monitoring network across Europe's major mountain ranges. Species have moved upslope on average. However, these shifts had opposite effects on the summit floras' species richness in boreal-temperate mountain regions (+3.9 species on average) and Mediterranean mountain regions (-1.4 species), probably because recent climatic trends have decreased the availability of water in the European south. Because Mediterranean mountains are particularly rich in endemic species, a continuation of these trends might shrink the European mountain flora, despite an average increase in summit species richness across the region. 相似文献
2.
Burrows MT Schoeman DS Buckley LB Moore P Poloczanska ES Brander KM Brown C Bruno JF Duarte CM Halpern BS Holding J Kappel CV Kiessling W O'Connor MI Pandolfi JM Parmesan C Schwing FB Sydeman WJ Richardson AJ 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2011,334(6056):652-655
Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts. 相似文献
3.
The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitude or elevation in response to changing climate. Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade. These rates are approximately two and three times faster than previously reported. The distances moved by species are greatest in studies showing the highest levels of warming, with average latitudinal shifts being generally sufficient to track temperature changes. However, individual species vary greatly in their rates of change, suggesting that the range shift of each species depends on multiple internal species traits and external drivers of change. Rapid average shifts derive from a wide diversity of responses by individual species. 相似文献
4.
Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts 总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18
Easterling DR Meehl GA Parmesan C Changnon SA Karl TR Mearns LO 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2000,289(5487):2068-2074
One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events. 相似文献
5.
气候变化对中国水资源的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
综述了气候变化对我国水资源的影响。气候变化会引起水循环的改变,而水循环的改变将可能影响各种灾害天气时间的长短、频率、损失以及水资源的可利用率;气候变暖可能使北方江河径流量减少,南方径流量增大,导致旱涝灾害出现频率增加,并加剧水资源的不稳定性与供需矛盾。 相似文献
6.
Secord R Bloch JI Chester SG Boyer DM Wood AR Wing SL Kraus MJ McInerney FA Krigbaum J 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2012,335(6071):959-962
Body size plays a critical role in mammalian ecology and physiology. Previous research has shown that many mammals became smaller during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), but the timing and magnitude of that change relative to climate change have been unclear. A high-resolution record of continental climate and equid body size change shows a directional size decrease of ~30% over the first ~130,000 years of the PETM, followed by a ~76% increase in the recovery phase of the PETM. These size changes are negatively correlated with temperature inferred from oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth and were probably driven by shifts in temperature and possibly high atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. These findings could be important for understanding mammalian evolutionary responses to future global warming. 相似文献
7.
A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Lenoir J Gégout JC Marquet PA de Ruffray P Brisse H 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2008,320(5884):1768-1771
Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes. By comparing the altitudinal distribution of 171 forest plant species between 1905 and 1985 and 1986 and 2005 along the entire elevation range (0 to 2600 meters above sea level) in west Europe, we show that climate warming has resulted in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation averaging 29 meters per decade. The shift is larger for species restricted to mountain habitats and for grassy species, which are characterized by faster population turnover. Our study shows that climate change affects the spatial core of the distributional range of plant species, in addition to their distributional margins, as previously reported. 相似文献
8.
青藏高原作为全球气候变化的启动器和调节器,在全球气候变化研究中备受关注。研究全球变暖背景下的青藏高原气候变化以及植被的响应特征,对于推进该区域气候变化研究具有重要意义,目前已有不少该方面的研究报道,但大多局限于对个别气候因素或个别植被响应的描述,缺乏对多种气候因素的综合概括和对植被响应区域差异方面的系统概括。该研究首先总结了青藏高原多个气候参数(气温、降水、积雪、日照辐射、水热通量等)的变化特征;然后归纳了在气候变化背景下,高原植被特征参数(绿度、物候、生产力、碳源/汇)对气候变化响应的规律;最后针对4个环境脆弱区,包括藏北、三江源、环青海湖、林芝,进行了植被变化气候响应特征的讨论。基于以上概述,分析了青藏高原植被气候变化响应研究方面存在的问题,对未来的研究方向进行了展望。 相似文献
9.
小兴安岭不同年龄林分对气候变化的潜在响应 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
应用林窗模型LINKAGES分别对小兴安岭原始林不同年龄林分在5种气候变暖情景下的未来演替动态进行了模拟预测.5种气候变暖情景分别为:OSU、GISS、GFDL、UKMO和CGCM2.不同年龄林分的运行结果均表明:在OSU、GISS情景下,温度升高较平缓,小兴安岭的主要树种分布基本保持现有状态,总生物量有升高趋势;在GFDL、UKMO温度大幅度升高情景下,小兴安岭森林不能适应生态环境的急剧改变,存在全部衰退的可能;而CGCM2情景下,红松生物量先上升后下降,红松针阔混交林将逐渐演替为以色木槭和蒙古栎占优势的阔叶混交林.不同年龄林分间比较发现:当增温幅度未超过红松的耐受范围时,过熟林对气候变化的抗干扰能力显著优于其他林龄类型,但总生物量水平略低;中幼林对气候变化的适应能力最强,能够在气候变化过程中朝着最有利于充分利用光照、养分等环境因子的方向演替,树种组成达到稳定后的总生物量水平通常最高.反之,当超过红松的耐受范围时,过熟林的抗干扰能力和恢复能力均下降,表现为林分的迅速衰退及总生物量的明显波动;中幼林对气候变化的适应能力仍然较强,演替动态最平稳. 相似文献
10.
温室效应对棉铃虫发生和危害的影响 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
就温室效应所引起的气候变化对棉铃虫发生的影响作了评述和讨论。当大气中ＣＯ＿２浓度倍增时，估计我国平均气温将升高２．６９℃。气候变暖将会导致棉铃虫发育速度加快，存活率和繁殖力提高；棉铃虫在全国四大棉区年发生世代数将普遍增加１代，此外，还会影响棉铃虫的滞育率和越冬基数，棉铃虫越冬界限将向北推移。气候变暖所引起的我国降水格局的改变也会影响棉铃虫的种群数量。 相似文献
11.
Wing SL Harrington GJ Smith FA Bloch JI Boyer DM Freeman KH 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2005,310(5750):993-996
Rapid global warming of 5 degrees to 10 degrees C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) coincided with major turnover in vertebrate faunas, but previous studies have found little floral change. Plant fossils discovered in Wyoming, United States, show that PETM floras were a mixture of native and migrant lineages and that plant range shifts were large and rapid (occurring within 10,000 years). Floral composition and leaf shape and size suggest that climate warmed by approximately 5 degrees C during the PETM and that precipitation was low early in the event and increased later. Floral response to warming and/or increased atmospheric CO2 during the PETM was comparable in rate and magnitude to that seen in postglacial floras and to the predicted effects of anthropogenic carbon release and climate change on future vegetation. 相似文献
12.
Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world. 相似文献
13.
Umina PA Weeks AR Kearney MR McKechnie SW Hoffmann AA 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2005,308(5722):691-693
Geographical clines in genetic polymorphisms are widely used as evidence of climatic selection and are expected to shift with climate change. We show that the classic latitudinal cline in the alcohol dehydrogenase polymorphism of Drosophila melanogaster has shifted over 20 years in eastern coastal Australia. Southern high-latitude populations now have the genetic constitution of more northerly populations, equivalent to a shift of 4 degrees in latitude. A similar shift was detected for a genetically independent inversion polymorphism, whereas two other linked polymorphisms exhibiting weaker clinal patterns have remained relatively stable. These genetic changes are likely to reflect increasingly warmer and drier conditions and may serve as sensitive biomarkers for climate change. 相似文献
14.
Kerr RA 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2000,288(5473):1947-1949
In their simulations of how the sea's ponderous flows of water and heat affect climate, including future greenhouse warming, climate modelers assumed that something evenly stirred the world ocean from top to bottom around the globe. But oceanographers gauging the tides of the world's seas from a satellite perch have found intense patches of tidally driven mixing deep within the open ocean. Once modelers include these patches, they should see some changes in model predictions of global warming. 相似文献
15.
Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades. Both models and observations yield broad probability distributions for long-term increases in global mean temperature expected from the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, with small but finite probabilities of very large increases. We show that the shape of these probability distributions is an inevitable and general consequence of the nature of the climate system, and we derive a simple analytic form for the shape that fits recent published distributions very well. We show that the breadth of the distribution and, in particular, the probability of large temperature increases are relatively insensitive to decreases in uncertainties associated with the underlying climate processes. 相似文献
16.
Environmental change and Antarctic seabird populations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent changes in Antarctic seabird populations may reflect direct and indirect responses to regional climate change. The best long-term data for high-latitude Antarctic seabirds (Adélie and Emperor penguins and snow petrels) indicate that winter sea-ice has a profound influence. However, some effects are inconsistent between species and areas, some in opposite directions at different stages of breeding and life cycles, and others remain paradoxical. The combination of recent harvest driven changes and those caused by global warming may produce rapid shifts rather than gradual changes. 相似文献
17.
大气CO2浓度和温度升高会通过影响作物的光合作用,从而影响光合碳向土壤中的输送。输入到土壤中光合碳含量的变化势必会对土壤外源碳的主要分解者--微生物的群落结构产生影响。土壤微生物在土壤有机质的转化过程中发挥着重要的作用,是土壤碳循环的主要驱动者,其群落结构和功能的改变会影响土壤有机质的动态变化,而这些变化会进一步增加或者降低大气中的CO2浓度,从而对气候变化产生反馈作用。未来土壤的碳平衡取决于大气CO2浓度和全球变暖对土壤中碳的输入、输出以及碳在土壤中的驻留时间。因此,只有全面了解大气CO2浓度和温度升高将对土壤碳库及土壤微生物群落结构产生何种影响,才能明确地揭示陆地生态系统对气候变化的反馈机制,对未来农田土壤有机碳库的管理和生产力的维持有重要意义。文章综述了大气CO2浓度和温度升高及其交互作用对土壤碳库和土壤微生物群落结构的影响。主要结论为：（1）大气CO2浓度和温度升高对土壤碳库的影响可以相互抵消,但是土壤碳库是否成为碳“源”与温度升高的幅度密切相关;（2）大气CO2浓度升高增加了光合碳在玉米、小麦等植株各部分的分配,温度升高同样对光合碳的分配规律产生影响,但对不同部位的影响不一致,多呈降低或无显著影响;（3）大气CO2浓度和温度升高可能对土壤微生物活性及其群落结构产生交互影响,且对不同微生物（细菌、真菌和古菌）群落的影响程度不同,进一步对土壤有机碳的转化产生影响。最后提出未来的研究方向：（1）从气候变化影响植物-土壤互作角度解析根系分泌物的转化过程及其对微生物的影响;（2）通过DNA-SIP进一步研究大气CO2浓度和温度升高条件下土壤微生物对不同植物来源碳的选择性利用与碳循环的关系,从而阐明气候变化条件下微生物底物利用策略以及微生物群落结构的变化。 相似文献
18.
Kerr RA 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2000,290(5492):697-698
Three researchers pondering what could be behind a roughly 1500-year cycle of warming and cooling are suggesting that it is a combination of two climate drivers, each too weak to have a large effect on its own. When a strictly periodic cycle teams up with just the right amount of thoroughly irregular noise, the combination could achieve "stochastic resonance" and set off the dramatic climate shifts of the last ice age--or the next, possibly human-triggered, Little Ice Age. No one is claiming the case is proven, but if true it will complicate predictions of future climate. 相似文献
19.
气候变暖对我国水稻生产的综合影响及其应对策略 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
气候变暖已是不争的事实,预计到21世纪末全球地表平均气温仍将上升1.5℃以上。水稻是我国最重要的口粮作物,全国80%以上的人口以稻米为主食,探明气候变暖对我国“口粮绝对安全”的潜在影响意义重大。作者依据多年的田间增温试验及长期观察,并结合国内外现有研究,阐明了我国粮食主产区气候变暖的基本态势,总结发现温度升高1.5℃对我国水稻生产的潜在影响正负参半,并取决于具体的稻作季节和地区。但是,随着水稻种植制度调整,尤其是南方双季稻种植面积下降,温度升高对我国水稻生产的负面影响将逐步递增。最后,作者提出了应对气候变暖的气候智慧型稻作技术创新建议,并展望了该研究领域的重点内容和方向。 相似文献
20.
Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Chapin FS Sturm M Serreze MC McFadden JP Key JR Lloyd AH McGuire AD Rupp TS Lynch AH Schimel JP Beringer J Chapman WL Epstein HE Euskirchen ES Hinzman LD Jia G Ping CL Tape KD Thompson CD Walker DA Welker JM 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2005,310(5748):657-660
A major challenge in predicting Earth's future climate state is to understand feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing. Here we synthesize field data from arctic Alaska, showing that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends. Pronounced terrestrial summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free season that has increased atmospheric heating locally by about 3 watts per square meter per decade (similar in magnitude to the regional heating expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2). The continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating by two to seven times. 相似文献