共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 187 毫秒
1.
基于时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估中,采用状态持续时间抽样,各元件的状态时间段是随机产生的,属于不确定性问题。求解不确定性问题的可靠性指标的收敛判据不同于常规数值迭代算法,需要运用概率知识描述。针对配电系统的随机时序模拟问题,研究了独立事件的选取,提出了以随机初始种子,相同循环次数作为广义独立事件;分析了在给定置信概率下总体均值的置信区间,其置信区间长度与样本均值的绝对误差有关,从而得出置信区间长度与给定计算精度的不等关系式,提出了以绝对误差作为计算精度的实用收敛判据。通过对RTBS测试系统的分析验证了该方法的合理性与有效性。 相似文献
2.
基于贝叶斯网络及时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
针对适合配电系统可靠性评估的贝叶斯网络模型还不够完善,研究了贝叶斯网络模型的组成,建立了“联合”关系模型和“因果”关系模型;针对贝叶斯网络精确推理难以计算大规模配电系统的可靠性指标,将贝叶斯网络和时序模拟技术相结合,提出了一种时序模拟推理算法。该算法能产生元件的状态与随机时间段,实时进行系统状态的推理与时间、停电用户次数和停电量的累计,利用这些累计量不但可以计算系统的可靠性指标,还可进行诊断推理和因果推理,从而既能实现对系统的总体评价,又能找出钳制系统的薄弱环节。通过与配电系统可靠性测试系统数据及贝叶斯网络精确推理数据相比较,验证了该算法的合理性和有效性。 相似文献
3.
现存农作物单产预测方法往往是在历史数据完备的前提下进行精确数值预测,未能真实体现农作物单产系统的不确作定性,而且无法对既成现实进行诊断分析.在决策需求仅仅要求产量等级水平的假设下,本文把不确定性信息处理方法Credal网络模型引入到农作物单产预测系统,通过分析农作物单产系统各影响因素之间的关系,提出类要素和影响因子的概念,构建了进行农作物单产预测的通用Credal网络模型.把农作物单产量的等级水平状态作为概率事件,通过Credal网络前向推理功能预测其状态发生的概率,把高概率事件发生的等级状态作为其单产预测等级,实现了在已知部分事实发生情况下的知识推理.此外,利用Credal网络的后向推理功能,实现对农作物低产事实下的诊断分析,找出影响低产的关键类要素和影响因子.最后结合算例,采用基于扩展关系模型的近似推理算法阐述了利用该模型对农作物单产进行预测和诊断的应用过程,推理结果合理,表明该方法是可行的,且具有可释性,为农业生产科学决策提供了方法指导. 相似文献
4.
求van Genuchten模型参数的AM-MCMC方法 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
采用基于自适应采样算法的马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法(简称AM-MCMC)来估算描述土壤水分特征曲线的van Genuchten模型的参数,并推求出模型参数的后验分布,从而为模型参数的不确定性分析提供依据。结果表明,对于van Genuchten模型而言,采用AM-MCMC算法能得到模型参数后验均值和方差的分布,并且能推求出模型参数的置信区间,所以用这种算法来求解van Genuchten方程的参数是行之有效的,为求解van Genuchten模型参数提供了一种新的思路。 相似文献
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生态系统模型一般参数较多,且在应用时存在时空尺度问题,易产生不确定性。通过模型不确定性分析,可以加深对模型结构的理解,提高模型预报的可靠性。植被界面过程模型(VIP)是一个综合考虑了陆地生态系统能量收支、水文循环和碳氮等生命元素吸收转化等过程的生态/水文动力学模型。本文采用GLUE(General-ized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)方法,以拟合度系数作为似然判据,利用华北平原冬小麦生长季内的田间观测数据分析VIP模型中的作物生长、土壤水分运动以及光合速率模块中8个参数以及模型预报的不确定性。研究表明,最大光合速率Vmax、饱和含水量wcsat、田间持水量wcfield参数为敏感性参数,其对似然判据的影响大,其余参数是相对不敏感参数。在置信度为95%水平下,发现观测值大都接近或者包含在置信预报区域内,说明可以通过参数校准得到很好的模型模拟效果。 相似文献
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农业非点源污染的形势十分严峻,流域水环境模型虽能为非点源污染管理提供决策支撑,但显著的不确定性制约着模型的应用效果。系统的不确定性分析十分重要,而传统的基于Monte Carlo模拟的不确定性分析方法存在着计算成本高昂的缺点。因此,尝试将概率配点法（Probabilistic Collocation Method）应用于流域非点源污染的不确定性分析。研究以美国Newport Bay流域的二嗪磷农药非点源污染为案例,利用WARMF模型进行污染模拟。结果表明,在许多情况下,概率配点法可以通过很小的计算成本获得与传统Monte Carlo模拟方法相近的不确定性分析结果,体现出该方法在非点源污染研究中应用的优势。此外,还揭示了管理因素对于非点源污染模拟及其不确定性分析的影响作用。 相似文献
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农田土壤质地空间分布的三维随机模拟及其不确定性评价 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
定量描述土体三维构型对于土地利用及农田水肥管理研究极其重要.本研究根据华北山前冲积平原区一块农田内的109个土壤剖面观测数据,运用马尔科夫地质统计学方法构建了土壤质地种类的三维空间分布模型,在100次随机模拟的基础上,分别得到了土壤质地种类的优化分布图及其概率分布图.结果表明,一维嵌入转移概率模型能很好地描述农田水平和垂直方向上各土壤质地种类的空间连续性及毗邻转移趋势.优化分布图虽能直观反映土壤质地种类的空间分布特征,但存在明显的平滑效应,不能刻画土壤质地种类空间分布的不确定性.而采用概率分布的方式来描述土壤质地种类空间分布的不确定性,能够有效地克服该缺点. 相似文献
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为了解决传统太阳能混合跟踪控制判据范围宽泛,不能准确识别天气情况的问题,该研究设计了一种复杂天气状况下的太阳能混合跟踪系统。通过分析非聚光与聚光条件下系统运行在不同跟踪策略下的跟踪特性,结合天气特征,提出以辐照度识别天气状况的多阈值控制判据。控制判据将天气划分为辐照度波动天气、高辐照度天气、低辐照度天气与辐照度极低天气,装置可根据外界气象变化自动调整光电跟踪、视日运动轨迹跟踪或固定倾角控制模式。该系统搭建Node-Red总控平台,采用并行控制,优化混合跟踪策略,控制信号稳定输出。试验结果表明：应用该判据的混合跟踪系统工作性能优良,非聚光条件下系统平均发电功率分别高出光电跟踪与视日运动轨迹跟踪0.03和0.16 W,聚光条件下系统平均发电功率达到0.81 W,高出光电跟踪0.03 W,高出视日运动轨迹跟踪0.55 W,由此可知,该系统能够提升光伏发电的输出电能,为太阳能混合跟踪系统的跟踪方式切换提供了理论依据。 相似文献
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基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
[目的]评价降雨诱发浅层滑坡的失稳破坏概率,为相关研究提供理论依据。[方法]在引入并扩展了Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型的基础上,将Mein-Larson入渗模型与无限边坡稳定性方法有机结合,建立2种降雨情形(高强度短历时和低强度长历时)下降雨滑坡稳定性的确定性评价模型,然后再将蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法与降雨滑坡的确定性评价模型结合,建立降雨滑坡稳定性的概率评价方法。[结果]提出了1种降雨诱发浅层滑坡失稳的概率评价方法。[结论]概率评价方法可以描述降雨滑坡发生及发展过程中存在的不确定性,可以计算不同降雨情形下,不同降雨时刻降雨诱发边坡的失稳破坏概率。该方法的评价结果更符合边坡实际情况。 相似文献
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基于三维Copula函数的滴灌硝态氮淋失风险评估方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
硝态氮淋失是滴灌系统设计和运行管理需要考虑的重要因素。该研究构建了滴灌条件下的水氮运移模型,利用HYDRUS-2D软件进行了求解,模拟分析了田间尺度砂壤土饱和导水率和初始含水率空间变异对NO3--N淋失率的影响,并利用三维Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数构建了土壤饱和导水率、初始含水率和NO3--N淋失率的联合分布函数,分析了给定土壤饱和导水率和初始含水率条件下NO3--N淋失率超过某一阈值的条件概率。结果表明,NO3--N淋失率概率密度函数可用指数函数表示;土壤饱和导水率和初始含水率的空间变异会明显增加NO3--N淋失风险;NO3--N淋失率超过给定阈值（6.4%,均质土壤条件下的NO3--N淋失率）的条件概率基本随土壤饱和导水率和初始含水率的增大而增大。构建田间尺度土壤特性参数（如饱和导水率、初始含水率等）与NO3--N淋失率的联合分布函数为研究多变量空间变异条件下NO3--N淋失风险评估提供了参考。 相似文献
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以海涂围垦区为例,利用普通克立格插值法和序贯高斯条件模拟方法对土壤盐分的空间分布进行估值和模拟,并利用序贯指示条件模拟进行不确定性评价。结果表明,样区东南区域土壤盐分含量较高而北部区域盐分含量低。由普通克立格法得到的土壤盐分的空间分布整体比较连续,具有明显的平滑效应,估值结果数据的分布频率趋于平缓。序贯高斯条件模拟结果整体分布相对离散,突出了原始数据分布的波动性,其模拟结果数据的分布频率相对集中。预测精度上,序贯高斯条件模拟的预测结果精度相对较高。以评价标准204mSm-1作为土壤盐分含量的阈值进行的序贯指示条件模拟结果显示,在土壤盐分含量较高的东南部地区,超过阈值的概率超过75%,而北部很多盐分相对含量低的地区,超过阈值的概率值都低于25%。以超阈值概率为0.9、0.85和0.8三个值来选取盐分的高值风险区进行空间不确定评价,结果表明,联合概率比单点统计的概率更为严格,在划分较大范围高盐风险区域时,最好同时采用联合概率来进行信度评价。 相似文献
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基于自适应进化相关向量机的耕地面积预测模型 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
为解决耕地面积预测模型建立过程中的非线性、稀疏化及结果可靠性评价等问题,该文将相关向量机与差分进化优化算法进行融合及改进,提出基于自适应进化相关向量机的耕地面积预测模型。该文以黄石市为例,建立基于自适应进化相关向量机的短期、中期耕地预测模型,并与多元线性回归、BP神经网络、支持向量机算法在精度、计算效率及可靠性方面进行对比分析。试验验数据表明,自适应进化相关向量机的预测精度大约是其余3种方法的2倍以上;模型的计算效率是多元线性回归方法的2倍,比BP神经网络、支持向量机高出2个数量级;测试数据的实际耕地面积均在自适应进化相关向量机估计的95%置信度的置信区间内,并且由后验差比、小误差概率判定模型等级属于"好"。基于以上数据,证实该模型是一种精度高、计算快、可靠性强的耕地预测新方法。 相似文献
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X.‐L. SUN Y.‐G. ZHAO Y.‐J. WU M.‐S. ZHAO H.‐L. WANG G.‐L. ZHANG 《Soil Use and Management》2012,28(3):318-328
Estimation of spatio‐temporal change of soil is needed for various purposes. Commonly used methods for the estimation have some shortcomings. To estimate spatio‐temporal change of soil organic matter (SOM) in Jiangsu province, China, this study explored benefits of digital soil maps (DSM) by handling mapping uncertainty using stochastic simulation. First, SOM maps on different dates, the 1980s and 2006–2007, were constructed using robust geostatistical methods. Then, sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was used to generate 500 realizations of SOM in the area for the two dates. Finally, E‐type (i.e. conditional mean) temporal change of SOM and its associated uncertainty, probability and confidence interval were computed. Results showed that SOM increased in 70% of Jiangsu province and decreased in the remaining 30% during the past decades. As a whole, SOM increased by 0.22% on average. Spatial variance of SOM diminished, but the major spatial pattern was retained. The maps of probability and confidence intervals for SOM change gave more detailed information and credibility about this change. Comparatively, variance of spatio‐temporal change of SOM derived using SGS was much smaller than sum of separate kriging variances for the two dates, because of lower mapping variances derived using SGS. This suggests an advantage of the method based on digital soil maps with uncertainty dealt with using SGS for deriving spatio‐temporal change in soil. 相似文献
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Using plot soil loss distribution for soil conservation design 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Soil conservation design is generally based on the estimation of average annual soil loss but it should be developed taking into account storms of a given return period. However, use of frequency analysis in soil erosion studies is relatively limited. In this paper, an investigation on statistical distribution of soil loss measurements was firstly carried out using a relatively high number of simultaneously operating plots of different lengths, λ (11, 22, 33 and 44 m) at the experimental station of Sparacia (southern Italy). Using a simple normalization technique, the analysis showed that the probability distribution of the normalized soil loss is independent of both the scale length λ and the temporal scale, which are completely represented by the mean soil loss calculated for a given event using all replicated data collected in plots having the same length. Then, a comparison between the frequency distribution of soil loss and rainfall erosivity index of the USLE was carried out. An estimating criterion of the annual soil loss of a given return period was also developed. By this criterion, the frequency distribution of the rainfall erosivity factor can be used to design soil conservation practices. 相似文献
15.
River networks are often derived from digital terrain models and are affected by uncertainty and errors of the corresponding elevation data. The analysis of the spatial distribution of the errors provides information on the confidence level of the derived networks. However indications on the most probable river network as a whole are missing. This study proposes a method to indicate which is the river network maximising the sum of the probability values along the network, given a map reporting the likelihood that a cell belongs to the network itself. The method is considering the inverse of the channel probability map as pseudo-DEM from which drainage networks are derived. A reference network is used to assess the spatial match of the extracted river networks using the Euclidean distance as simple comparison parameter. The network extracted from the inverse of the channel probability map is the closest to the reference. The use of a probabilistic approach to error modelling significantly increases the values of channel probability for extracted river networks and the spatial match with a ground reference dataset. 相似文献
16.
Jiliang Zhen Wei Li Guohe Huang Zhenghui Fu Ling Ji 《Water, air, and soil pollution》2014,225(6):1-22
The issue of air pollution has become the focus of the world because of its significant influence to the economic development and public health. This paper proposes an interval dual stochastic-mixed integer programming (IDSIP) approach for regional air quality management. The IDSIP approach can be effectively communicated into the optimization processes and resulting solutions, which is formulated through integrating interval-parameter integer programming (IIP) within a two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) joint chance-constrained programming (CCP) and could deal with uncertainties expressed as not only probability distributions but also interval values. Moreover, the left-hand-side (LHS) constraints with stochastic variables could be handled at different risk levels with varied reliability scenarios. In the modeling formulation, penalties are imposed when expected policies are violated. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for air quality management system have been generated, which can help decision makers draw up productive strategies taking into account the trade-off between system economy and air quality under uncertainty. 相似文献
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以苏北海涂围垦区典型地块为例, 把随机模拟技术引入土壤盐分空间变异性研究中, 利用普通克里格法和序贯高斯模拟方法对土壤盐分的空间分布进行估值和模拟, 将随机模拟值与克里格插值及实测值进行对比分析, 并采用序贯指示模拟对土壤盐分空间分布的不确定性进行评价。结果表明: 由普通克里格法得到的土壤盐分空间分布整体比较连续, 具有明显的平滑效应, 减小了数据间的空间差异性, 改变了数据的空间结构; 序贯高斯模拟结果整体分布相对离散, 突出了原始数据分布的波动性。对非盐化土、轻度盐化土、中度盐化土和重度盐化土的空间不确定性进行的序贯指示模拟结果显示, 围垦后研究区耕层土壤盐渍化的发生概率已显著降低。轻度盐化土的高概率区是改良利用的主要区域, 宜采用农业生物改良措施, 对中度盐化土高概率区应通过完善田间灌排设施以加强改良治理, 客土法是重度盐化土高概率区较为高效的改良治理途径。 相似文献
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Elevation contours are known to be poor quality data for digital terrain modeling, but they are often the only available topographic information at national scale, especially in developing countries. We investigated several methods to derive elevation and slope data from contours for two contiguous watersheds in Burundi. Two key issues in digital terrain modeling were addressed: (1) finding the ‘best’ elevation interpolator, and (2) assessing the related uncertainty and its propagation to slope models. The key validation criterion was the reproduction of the terrain shape as inferred from the pattern of contours, which is more important than absolute accuracy in soil–terrain correlation. A method using a triangulated irregular network (TIN) and four grid-based methods were compared and combined. The most satisfactory results were achieved by combining the TIN-based method with a grid-based method. Treating contours as inequality constraints proved useful in simulating the elevation uncertainty. The Zevenbergen and Thorne and the Evans–Young slope algorithms were compared based on their sensitivity to the elevation uncertainty. Outputs from simulation were filtered to produce realistic alternative elevation models. In that case, the slope variance values were similar for the two algorithms, suggesting similar performances. Checking for shape reliability was found critical for the validation of topographic models. 相似文献