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1.
An integrated computer-based spreadsheet was developed with data from 581 Red Angus-sired calves to compare synchronized AI and natural service breeding systems. This comparison was based on input costs, genetic merit of sires used for mating, and calf marketing system, using differences in net return. The spreadsheet integrated four elements into a decision summary: bull costs, AI costs, genetics merit, and marketing options. An economic sensitivity analysis was used to identify trends and key variables in the net return of each decision. Three prominent variables identified from economic analysis were bull purchase price, semen price, and percent genetic change. Bull purchase price was a primary factor in changes in net return; semen costs and genetic merit change explained rearrangements in ranking of net return. These two variables altered the ranking based on whether the estrous synchronization protocol used estrus detection or timed AI. The spreadsheet identified AI to be more cost effective than natural service when calves are marketed as finished cattle. Net revenue from AI calves was greater in all retained ownership scenarios; the weaned marketing scenario caused net return to vary by synchronization system for the combinations of costs and changes in genetic merit. However, there was a wide variance in identifying which breeding system provided the greatest benefit when calves were marketed as feeder cattle. Retaining ownership through finish and marketing either on the cash market or on a grid proved to be advantageous to AI in all of the estrous synchronization protocols provided. The economic advantage ranged from $142.98 to $214.16 per head compared with marketing at weaning. The spreadsheet developed provides a useful tool for evaluating the economic impacts of breeding system decisions.  相似文献   

2.
The economic feasibility of the use of rapid milk progesterone assays (RMPA) for early detection of pregnancy status in cows, to reduce the cost associated with reproductive inefficiency, was evaluated by use of decision analysis techniques. A decision tree was formulated and used to compare the RMPA to the alternative of palpation per rectum alone for the determination of pregnancy status. A computer spreadsheet was used to examine the effect of manipulating the values of inputs affecting the optimal decision (ie, cost of a day a cow is not pregnant, conception rate, cost of the RMPA, test sensitivity and specificity, cost of insemination) over the range of values likely to be encountered. The sensitivity of the optimal decision was greatest to the variables for cost of a day a cow is not pregnant, conception rate, and cost of the RMPA. When the cost of a day a cow is not pregnant is +2.00 and the cost of the RMPA is +6.00, the best decision is to use the RMPA when the herd conception rate is between 20 and 77%. When the herd conception rate is 60%, the best decision is to use the RMPA as long as the cost of a day a cow is not pregnant is greater than +1.44. Indifference curves were calculated, allowing both the cost of a day a cow is not pregnant and conception rate to vary, and used to select the most economical decision. Use of the RMPA for early detection of pregnancy status is likely to be economically advantageous in most dairy operations.  相似文献   

3.
A spreadsheet program was written to perform decision tree analysis for control of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), when testing all adults in a herd and culling all animals with positive test results. The program incorporated diagnostic test sensitivity, specificity, and test cost with the cost or value of each of the 4 possible outcomes; true-positive, true-negative, false-positive, and false-negative test results. The program was designed to repeat the analysis for the independent variable pretest paratuberculosis prevalence (0 to 100%). Model output was graphed as profit or loss in dollars vs pretest prevalence. The threshold was defined as the pretest prevalence at which benefit-cost equaled zero. Reed-Frost disease modeling techniques were used to predict the number of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis-infected replacement heifers resulting from infected cows during a control program. Sensitivity analysis was performed on variables of the decision tree model; test sensitivity, specificity, test cost, and factors affecting the cost of paratuberculosis to a commercial dairy. A test and cull program was profitable when paratuberculosis caused greater than or equal to 6% decrease in milk production if the pretest prevalence was greater than 6%, test sensitivity was 50%, test specificity was 98%, and the testing cost was $4/cow. Test specificities greater than 98% did not markedly affect the threshold for tests with a 50% sensitivity and costing $4/cow. Test sensitivity had minimal effect on the threshold. Using a diagnostic test with a 50% sensitivity and a 98% specificity as an example, test cost was shown to affect the threshold prevalence at which the test and cull program became profitable.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)  相似文献   

4.
Cloned pregnancies in cattle are considered to be at risk due to a variety of fetal or adnexal abnormalities. Data is lacking concerning the possibility of transabdominal ultrasonography in the assessment of these high risk pregnancies. Transabdominal ultrasonography has rarely been reported in the assessment of bovine cloned pregnancies. Ten Holstein heifers carrying 8-month-old cloned fetuses were assessed by transabdominal ultrasonographic examination during the 3rd trimester of pregnancy. Fetal heart rates (FHR), movements, adnexal appearance, and placentome size were recorded. The outcome of the pregnancies was also noted and potential indicators of fetal demise recorded. Survival rate 1 week after birth was 30%. Mean FHR was 113 beats per minute (range: 92 to 128 bpm) during the fetal ultrasonography. No correlation between FHR and fetal activity was found. Fetal hyperactivity and imaging of hyperechoic particles in both allantoic and amniotic fluids were possible signs of fetal distress. Despite the size of the fetus and the deep bovine abdomen, fetal transabdominal ultrasonography can be performed in cattle. This preliminary study points to the necessity of further larger studies for defining normal and abnormal findings in bovine late pregnancy.  相似文献   

5.
The economic impact of management practices designed to limit the introduction of disease into a parent broiler breeder flock (biosecurity) was evaluated using benefit-cost analysis. Equations were developed to quantify the losses resulting from infection with one of four alternative categories of disease representing incremental levels of pathogenicity. Realistic costs and assumed values relating to the probability of infection were used to evaluate the ameliorative effect of three alternative levels of biosecurity. A microcomputer spreadsheet program was used to confirm that expenditure on protective measures can be justified by both the risk of introducing a disease and the magnitude of losses that may occur following infection.  相似文献   

6.
Large-colon torsion is a common cause of colic in horses and has a worse prognosis and higher cost than other causes of surgical colic of the large colon. During large-colon torsion, the colon wall becomes thick due to vascular occlusion. Therefore, we hypothesized that detecting increased colon wall thickness during ultrasonography would be an accurate preoperative test for large-colon torsion. The sample population consisted of 42 horses that were admitted for surgical treatment of colic localized to the large colon. The diagnosis was confirmed at surgery or necropsy examination. Twelve (29%) of these horses were diagnosed with large-colon torsion. Duplicate ultrasonographic measurements of colon wall thickness were made at six abdominal locations and an average measurement was calculated. For four of these six sites, a significant difference (P < 0.005) was detected between horses with and without large-colon torsion. All four tests were moderately sensitive and highly specific for diagnosing large-colon torsion using five decision criteria. Using a ventral abdominal window, a colon wall thickness > or = 9 mm accurately predicted large-colon torsion in eight of the 12 horses (sensitivity, 67%; confidence interval [CI], 36-98%) and correctly predicted that large-colon torsion was absent in 28/28 horses (specificity 100%; CI, 98-100%). Intraobserver repeatability was assessed by evaluating the difference between the first and second measurements obtained, which was < or = 2 mm. Therefore, detecting increased large-colon wall thickness during ultrasonography is a reproducible and accurate preoperative test for large-colon torsion in horses with surgical colic localized to the large colon.  相似文献   

7.
Between January 1993 and April 1998 in a total of 27,378 sheep an ultrasonographic early pregnancy diagnosis was done. The determined pregnancy rates (mean = 82.2%) were related to the mating systems, duration of mating season and time of the year. The benefits of scanning are described. If the pregnancy rate is lower than 97% the early pregnancy diagnosis is economical to flock management. Cases of uterine and fetal pathology (fetal mortality, maceration, hydrometra, pyometra) are presented.  相似文献   

8.
Use of ultrasonography in reproductive management of sheep and goat herds   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Real-time ultrasound evaluation of small ruminants offers an unparalleled range of information regarding pregnancy status, number of fetuses, and gestational age. The advantages of real-time ultrasonography are its sensitivity and accuracy of various diagnoses, its speed, and its safety. Overall flock reproductive management is facilitated through the timely acquisition of information with ewes culled, rebred, or preferentially fed, according to pregnancy status. Breeding dates of pasture-bred does can be assigned with sufficient accuracy to allow parturition induction at term without risk of severe immaturity in kids. Diagnoses other than pregnancy, such as pyometra, nydrometra, fetal resorption, and fetal mummification also can be made using real-time ultrasonography.  相似文献   

9.
Decision tree analysis was used to evaluate the economic benefits of leptospirosis vaccination in beef cattle. The analysis used estimated values for the cost of vaccination, the probability of calf losses from leptospirosis and the economic losses resulting from calf mortality to calculate the expected value of vaccination. A computer spreadsheet was used to calculate the expected value of the vaccination programme over a wide range of estimated costs and probabilities and to determine the break-even point at which vaccination becomes economic. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the outcome of the analysis was most dependent on calf value and the probability of calf loss due to leptospirosis. The analysis was relatively insensitive to changes in vaccine cost, vaccine efficacy and herd fertility.  相似文献   

10.
Objectives were to determine associations between percentage pregnancy loss (PPL) in dairy cattle and: (i) pregnancy diagnosis by ultrasonography; (ii) pregnancy diagnosis by serum pregnancy‐specific protein B (PSPB) concentrations, with or without serum progesterone concentrations; and (iii) production and environmental factors. This study included 149 822 pregnancy diagnoses conducted over 13 years in Holstein‐Friesian cows in Hungarian dairy herds. The following were determined: PPL in cows diagnosed pregnant by transrectal ultrasonography 29–42 days after artificial insemination (AI; n = 11 457); PPL in cows diagnosed pregnant by serum PSPB 29–35 days after AI (n = 138 365); and PPL and its association with serum progesterone concentrations, PSPB and production/environmental variables. The definition of PPL was percentage of cows initially diagnosed pregnant based on ultrasonography or PSPB, but not pregnant when examined by transrectal palpation 60 –70 days after AI. The PPL was lower (p < 0.001) in cows following ultrasonographic vs PSPB diagnosis of pregnancy at 29–35 days (8.1 vs 19.3%, respectively), but was higher in cows following ultrasonographic pregnancy diagnosis on 29–35 vs 36–42 days (8.1 vs 7.1%, respectively, P < 0.05). Furthermore, 72.9% of pregnancies with ultrasound‐detected morphological abnormalities resulted in pregnancy loss. As a subset of PSPB data, a fully quantitative PSPB assay was used for 20 430 samples; PPL in cows with a high PSPB concentration (>1.1 ng/ml) was lowest (15.0%), whereas cows with low concentrations of both PSPB and progesterone (0.6–1.1 and <2 ng/ml, respectively) had the highest PPL (76.3%; p < 0.0001). Furthermore, PPL was higher in cows with advanced parity and with high milk production, when ambient temperatures were high, although body condition score (BCS) had no effect on PPL. Finally, there were no significant associations between serum PSPB and environmental temperatures or number of post‐partum uterine treatments.  相似文献   

11.
Transrectal ultrasonography was performed on the cranial mesenteric artery and its major branches in 23 conscious adult horses. Ultrasonographically, 25 arterial segments were classified as either normal or abnormal. These ultrasonographic classifications were later compared with the gross and histologic evaluations of each artery following necropsy of each horse. In this study, transrectal ultrasonography as a diagnostic test for verminous arteritis had a 90% sensitivity for detecting normal arteries and an 86% specificity for detecting abnormal arteries, suggesting that ultrasonography may be useful in the antemortem diagnosis of verminous arteritis.  相似文献   

12.
The following parameters were used to calculate the economic impact to a commercial broiler company of a pathogenic reovirus infection in broiler breeders during egg production: hatchability, selling of eggs, vaccination, mortality, medication, slowing of line speed at processing, and downgrading and trimming at processing. The cost due to reovirus infection in one flock of broiler breeders was approximately $48,000.  相似文献   

13.
The incidence of early foetal loss is increasing under intensive management systems for dairy cattle. The aims of the present study were to determine whether there is any peak period of pregnancy loss during the early foetal period and to evaluate possible differences between single and twin pregnancies. The study population consisted of 1442 pregnant cattle from a single herd. Pregnancy was diagnosed by transrectal ultrasonography between 36 and 42 days after insemination, and then weekly until day 90 of gestation or until pregnancy loss. A total of 1310 cows (90.8%) bore single embryos and 132 (9.2%) carried twins. Pregnancy loss was registered in 139 (9.6%) cows before day 90 of pregnancy: 101 (7.7%) in single and 38 (28.8%) in twin pregnancies. The average time of pregnancy loss for all animals was 58.4 ± 12.6 days and ranged from 45 to 90 days. Seventy‐five per cent of the pregnancy losses were registered between 45 and 60 days of gestation. The average time of pregnancy loss for cows with singletons was 52.1 ± 4.1 days and ranged from 45 to 61 days and that for those with twins was 75.1 ± 12.4 days and ranged from 46 to 90 days. Seventy‐five per cent of the twin pregnancy losses were registered between 68 and 90 days of gestation. Our data show that the foetal loss in singleton pregnancies occurs earlier than in twin pregnancies. Assessment of normal development of gestation on days 60 and 90 after insemination is suggested.  相似文献   

14.
Objective   To investigate the practical application and image quality of transcutaneous ultrasonography across the right flank for the diagnosis of mid- to late-gestation in cattle.
Procedure   Dairy cows of known pregnancy status were used to establish criteria for the identification of mid- to late-stage pregnancy by transcutaneous ultrasonography. Factors involved in the practical application of transcutaneous ultrasound for routine use in pregnancy diagnosis in dairy cattle were also examined.
Results   Transcutaneous ultrasound, using a 3.5-MHz sector transducer applied over the caudodorsal right flank fold, allowed rapid and detailed visualisation of bovine pregnancy (i.e. fetus, fetal fluids, placentomes and/or fetal membranes) and could be used to establish criteria for the diagnosis of pregnancy. The commonly available cattle holding facilities of the herringbone dairy, rotary herringbone dairy, AI race or crush, and walk-through dairy all allow safe access to the right flank of a dairy or beef cow. However, transcutaneous scanning over the right flank is difficult in modern rotary turnstile dairies.
Conclusion   A 3.5-MHz sector transducer applied over the caudodorsal right flank fold allows detailed visualisation of the bovine fetus in most types of cattle-holding facilities. Further investigation of the sensitivity and specificity of this technique over the entire gestation period and its possible use in ageing of the bovine fetus is merited.  相似文献   

15.
The objective of this prospective cohort study was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and predictive value of twin pregnancy diagnosis by rectal palpation and to examine fetal survival, culling rates, and gestational lengths of cows diagnosed with twins. In this prospective study, 5309 cows on 14 farms in California were followed from pregnancy diagnosis to subsequent abortion or calving. The average sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and predictive value of twin pregnancy diagnosis were 49.3%, 99.4%, 96.0%, and 86.1%, respectively. The abortion rate for single pregnancies of 12.0% differed significantly from those for bicornual twin pregnancies and unicornual twin pregnancies of 26.2% and 32.4%, respectively (P < 0.05). The early calf mortality between cows calving with singles (3.2%) and twins (15.7%) were significantly different (P < 0.005). The difference in fetal survival between single pregnancies and all twin pregnancies resulted in 0.42 and 0.29 viable heifers per pregnancy, respectively. The average gestation for single, bicornual, and unicornual pregnancies that did not abort before drying-off was 278, 272, and 270 days, respectively. Results of this study show that there is an increased fetal wastage associated with twin pregnancies and suggest a need for further research exploring management strategies for cows carrying twins.  相似文献   

16.
Ultrasonography is an easy and rewarding technique for the assessment of collateral ligaments of the distal interphalangeal joint (CL‐DIPJ) desmopathies and enthesopathies. Comparison between ligaments of both feet and oblique incidence improve sensitivity and specificity of the ultrasonographic diagnosis. The main limitation of the procedure is imaging the distal part of the CL‐DIPJ and corresponding fossa of the distal phalanx. Alone, or in combination with other imaging procedures, ultrasonography is valuable in the diagnosis of the injured structures, which may help to determine the corrective shoeing and the rehabilitation programme of the horse.  相似文献   

17.
The epidemiology and economics of Brucella ovis control in a hypothetical, commercial sheep flock (100 rams and 2,500 ewes) were investigated. The investigation consisted of an epidemiologic simulation model, reported in a companion paper, and a decision-tree analysis, reported here. It was predicted from the simulation model that B ovis could be eradicated successfully in 2 test periods (less than 1 year) from a flock by using intensive screening and culling. A computerized decision-tree program was used to determine the economically optimal control strategy among several alternatives. Two versions of the program were used to determine the optimal alternative, based on minimizing the expected monetary loss (deterministic) and minimizing the associated risk (stochastic). The economically optimal alternative was to screen the rams by means of palpation, semen testing, and ELISA prior to the mating season. Rams positive to any test were culled. After the mating season was completed, the optimal action was to use ELISA for the remaining rams and to cull all that were ELISA positive. The cost of this alternative was approximately $6,150, or less than one half the annual cost of a vaccination program ($12,800) or no program ($13,550). Continuing palpation and semen testing were considered worthwhile on the basis of detecting new cases of B ovis infection and in maintaining high flock fertility. Similarly, the cost of annual use of ELISA was small (approximately $100), compared with the potential cost of not detecting a new case of B ovis infection.  相似文献   

18.
This study determined ultrasonographic parameters of fetuses and uterine adnexa in late pregnancy in normal, cloned, and high-risk pregnancies in relation to perinatal and neonatal outcome. Ten cows with normal pregnancies (CONTROL, mean pregnancy length 273 d), 10 sick cows with potentially compromised pregnancies (HIGH-RISK, mean pregnancy length 267 d), and 10 heifers with cloned pregnancies (CLONED, mean pregnancy length 274 d) were examined at more than 260 d of gestation. There was no difference in mean fetal heart rates among the groups. The cloned calves were heavier (57 ± 8 kg) than calves from CONTROL group (36 ± 7 kg), and calves from HIGH-RISK group (37 ± 13 kg) (P = 0.003). The diameter of the thoracic aorta was positively correlated (R = 0.62) with fetal birth weight in the CONTROL group (P = 0.01). Fetal activity was not associated with survival. The results suggest that transabdominal ultrasonographic assessment of the fetal well-being may serve as a potential tool for evaluation of the fetoplacental unit.  相似文献   

19.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the baseline costs of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection, including costs of clinical disease and subclinical infection, in a dairy herd representative of the mid-Atlantic region and compare these costs with the cost of a test-and-manage BLV control program. DESIGN: Stochastic spreadsheet model. SAMPLE POPULATION: A commercial Holstein dairy herd with 100 milking cows. PROCEDURES: A spreadsheet model was developed. The overall cost of infection included the cost of clinical disease (ie, lymphosarcoma [LS]) and the effects of subclinical infection on milk production and premature culling. Model input values and distributions were designed to reflect economic conditions in the mid-Atlantic region. Relative costs of infection and control were calculated for infection prevalences of 20, 50, and 80%. RESULTS: Estimated mean cost to the producer per case of LS was 412 dollars; for a herd with a 50% prevalence of BLV infection, annual incidence of LS was 0.66. Mean annual cost of subclinical infection at a 50% prevalence of infection was 6,406 dollars. Mean annual cost of a test-and-manage control program was 1,765 dollars. The cost of clinical disease and subclinical infection varied substantially with the prevalence of infection, whereas the cost of control varied with herd size. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggested that a basic BLV control program may be economically beneficial in herds in which the prevalence of BLV infection is > or = 12.5%. Farm-specific considerations may factor prominently when weighing the costs and benefits of an individual BLV control program.  相似文献   

20.
Objective   Evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of transrectal ultrasound and transcutaneous ultrasonography across the right flank between days 31 and 196 of pregnancy in the dairy cow.
Procedure   Pregnancy status and stage of gestation at date of pregnancy diagnosis by transcutaneous and transrectal ultrasonography were determined for 1570 dairy cattle. Sensitivity and specificity values and probabilities of a correct diagnosis for both techniques were determined and compared. Possible effects of gestational age, herd, method of transcutaneous ultrasound diagnosis, cow age, cow and bull breed, and calf sex on the determination of a correct diagnosis of pregnancy status were evaluated for both techniques.
Results   The overall sensitivity and probability of a correct diagnosis of pregnancy status from days 31 to 196 of gestation were significantly higher when using transrectal ultrasound relative to transcutaneous ultrasound over the right flank. However, the sensitivity of transcutaneous ultrasound changed over the course of pregnancy: it was low (7–8%) before day 84, increased to 89% between days 141 and 154, and was close to 100% thereafter. The specificity of both methods did not differ significantly. Herd and gestational age at date of pregnancy diagnosis were significantly associated with making a correct test result using transcutaneous ultrasound, although only the latter predictor was significantly associated with making a correct test result using transrectal ultrasound.
Conclusion   Transcutaneous ultrasound can not be recommended as an accurate method for early pregnancy diagnosis in the dairy cow, particularly on a whole-herd basis. However, if pregnancy testing is undertaken in mid to late gestation, this technique could provide an accurate and rapid alternative to transrectal ultrasound or manual palpation per rectum.  相似文献   

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