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1.
Daxing'anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China.Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management.This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,RCP8.5)for 2021–2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data.The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions.Compared with the baseline period(1971–2000),the period 2021–2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02–2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4–40.3 mm,while the fire weather index(FWI) was predicted to increase by6.2–11.2% and seasonal severity rating(SSR) by5.5–17.2%.The DMC(Duff moisture code),ISI(initial spread index),BUI(build-up index),FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5.Furthermore,days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3–6 days,with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5.  相似文献   

2.
Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China (1961 1990) as our validation data, and the period (1991-2100) was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system (PRECIS). Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.  相似文献   

3.
The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55°C under two scenarios selected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s (2041 2050), which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio (2×CO 2 /1×CO 2 ) show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.  相似文献   

4.
Interactions of fire cycle and plant species＇ reproductive characteristics could determine vegetation distribution pattern of a landscape. In Canada＇s boreal region, fire cycles before the Little Ice Age （c. 1850s） ranged from 30-130 years and 25-234 years afterwards until the settlement period （c. 1930s） when longer fire cycles occurred in response to climatic change and human interference. Analysis indicated that fire cycles were correlated with growing season （April-October） temperature and precipitation departure from the 1961-1990 normal, varying by regions. Assuming that wildfires will respond to future warming similar to the manner during the past century, an assessment using climatic change scenarios CGCMI, CGCM2 and HadCM2 indicates fire cycles would divert to a range of 80-140 years in the west taiga shield, more than 700 years for the east boreal shield and east taiga shield, and 300-400 years for the boreal plains in 2050.  相似文献   

5.
Interactions of fire cycle and plant species' reproductive characteristics could determine vegetation distribution pattern of a landscape. In Canada's boreal region, fire cycles before the Little Ice Age (c. 1850s) ranged from 30-130 years and 25-234 years afterwards until the settlement period (c. 1930s) when longer fire cycles occurred in response to climatic change and human interference. Analysis indi-cated that fire cycles were correlated with growing season (April-October) temperature and precipitation departure from the 1961-1990 nor-mal, varying by regions. Assuming that wildfires will respond to future warming similar to the manner during the past century, an assess-ment using climatic change scenarios CGCM1, CGCM2 and HadCM2 indicates fire cycles would divert to a range of 80-140 years in the west taiga shield, more than 700 years for the east boreal shield and east taiga shield, and 300-400 years for the boreal plains in 2050.  相似文献   

6.
Background:Successional paludification,a dynamic process that leads to the formation of peatlands,is influenced by climatic factors and site features such as surficial deposits and soil texture.In boreal regions,projected climate change and corresponding modifications in natural fire regimes are expected to influence the paludification process and forest development.The objective of this study was to forecast the development of boreal paludified forests in northeastern North America in relation to climate change and modifications in the natural fire regime for the period 2011–2100.Methods:A paludification index was built using static(e.g.surficial deposits and soil texture)and dynamic(e.g.moisture regime and soil organic layer thickness)stand scale factors available from forest maps.The index considered the effects of three temperature increase scenarios(i.e.+1°C,+3°C and+6°C)and progressively decreasing fire cycle(from 300 years for 2011–2041,to 200 years for 2071–2100)on peat accumulation rate and soil organic layer(SOL)thickness at the stand level,and paludification at the landscape level.Results:Our index show that in the context where in the absence of fire the landscape continues to paludify,the negative effect of climate change on peat accumulation resulted in little modification to SOL thickness at the stand level,and no change in the paludification level of the study area between 2011 and 2100.However,including decreasing fire cycle to the index resulted in declines in paludified area.Overall,the index predicts a slight to moderate decrease in the area covered by paludified forests in 2100,with slower rates of paludification.Conclusions:Slower paludification rates imply greater forest productivity and a greater potential for forest harvest,but also a gradual loss of open paludified stands,which could impact the carbon balance in paludified landscapes.Nonetheless,as the thick Sphagnum layer typical of paludified forests may protect soil organic layer from drought and deep burns,a significant proportion of the territory has high potential to remain a carbon sink.  相似文献   

7.
Satellite remote sensing has become a primary data source for fire danger rating prediction, fuel and fire mapping, fire monitoring, and fire ecology research. This paper summarizes the research achievements in these research fields, and discusses the future trend in the use of satellite remote-sensing techniques in wildfire management. Fuel-type maps from remote-sensing data can now be produced at spatial and temporal scales quite adequate for operational fire management applications. US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellites are being used for fire detection worldwide due to their high temporal resolution and ability to detect fires in remote regions. Results can be quickly presented on many Websites providing a valuable service readily available to fire agency. As cost-effective tools, satellite remote-sensing techniques play an important role in fire mapping. Improved remote-sensing techniques have the potential to date older fire scars and provide estimates of burn severity. Satellite remote sensing is well suited to assessing the extent of biomass burning, a prerequisite for estimating emissions at regional and global scaleswhich are needed for better understanding the effects of fire on climate change. The types of satellites used in fire research are also discussed in the paper. Suggestions on what remote-sensing efforts should be completed in China to modernize fire management technology in this country are given.  相似文献   

8.
Comparisons and assessment of forest fire danger systems   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
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9.
Expert opinions have been used in a variety of fields to identify relevant issues and courses of action. This study surveys experts in forestry and climate change from the Asia–Pacific region to gauge their perspectives on the impacts of climate change and on the challenges faced by forest adaptation in the region, and explores recommendations and initiatives for adapting forests to climate change. There was consensus regarding the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems and on economic sectors such as agriculture and forestry. Respondents also indicated a lack of public awareness and policy and legislation as challenges to addressing climate change. However, the results indicate differences in opinion between regions on the negative impacts of climate change and in satisfaction with actions taken to address climate change,highlighting the need for locally specific policies and research. The study presents specific recommendations to address issues of most concern, based on subregion and professional affiliation throughout the Asia–Pacific region.The results can be used to improve policy and forest management throughout the region. This research will also provide valuable suggestions on how to apply research findings and management recommendations outside of the AP region. The conclusions should be communicated relative to the level of the research and the target audience,ensuring that scientific findings and management recommendations are effectively communicated to ensure successful implementation of forest adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

10.
Background: Decisions on forest management are made under risk and uncertainty because the stand development cannot be predicted exactly and future timber prices are unknown. Deterministic calculations may lead to biased advice on optimal forest management. The study optimized continuous cover management of boreal forest in a situation where tree growth, regeneration, and timber prices include uncertainty.Methods: Both anticipatory and adaptive optimization approaches were used. The adaptive approach optimized the reservation price function instead of fixed cutting years. The future prices of different timber assortments were described by cross-correlated auto-regressive models. The high variation around ingrowth model was simulated using a model that describes the cross- and autocorrelations of the regeneration results of different species and years. Tree growth was predicted with individual tree models, the predictions of which were adjusted on the basis of a climate-induced growth trend, which was stochastic. Residuals of the deterministic diameter growth model were also simulated. They consisted of random tree factors and cross- and autocorrelated temporal terms.Results: Of the analyzed factors, timber price caused most uncertainty in the calculation of the net present value of a certain management schedule. Ingrowth and climate trend were less significant sources of risk and uncertainty than tree growth. Stochastic anticipatory optimization led to more diverse post-cutting stand structures than obtained in deterministic optimization. Cutting interval was shorter when risk and uncertainty were included in the analyses.Conclusions: Adaptive optimization and management led to 6%–14% higher net present values than obtained in management that was based on anticipatory optimization. Increasing risk aversion of the forest landowner led to earlier cuttings in a mature stand. The effect of risk attitude on optimization results was small.  相似文献   

11.
The paper described the natural conditions and forest types in Northwestern Region of China. Most forests in the region are distributed in subalpine areas. It is important to protect the existent forests in the region for maintaining ecological balance. According to the statistics results of 1991~2000, the paper analyzes the forest fires distribution and fire severity. Annually the numbers of forest fires range from 52 to 240. The incidence rate of forest fires in Northwestern Region is under 0.33 per ten thousand ha. There are 0.67-64.4 ha burned area per ten thousand ha forest. The main reasons for forest fires lie in the dry weather conditions, many firebrands, and high fuel loading. The strategies of fire management in the region are to stress the fire education in forest regions, strength the firebrands' management, emphasize the fuel management, and improve the fire monitoring and fire control ability.  相似文献   

12.
The purpose of this study was to determine a suitable model for investigating the effects of climate factors on the area burned by forest fire in the Tahe forest region, Daxing’an Mountains, in northea...  相似文献   

13.
《林业研究》2020,31(5)
To assist conservationists and policymakers in managing and protecting forests in Beijing from the effects of climate change, this study predicts changes for 2012–2112 in habitable areas of three tree species—Betula platyphylla, Quercus palustris, Platycladus orientalis, plus other mixed broadleaf species—in Beijing using a classification and regression tree niche model under the International Panel on Climate Change's A2 and B2 emissions scenarios(SRES). The results show that climate change will increase annual average temperatures in the Beijing area by 2.0–4.7 ℃, and annual precipitation by4.7–8.5 mm, depending on the emissions scenario used.These changes result in shifts in the range of each of the species. New suitable areas for distributions of B. platyphylla and Q. palustris will decrease in the future. The model points to significant shifts in the distributions of these species, withdrawing from their current ranges and pushing southward towards central Beijing. Most of the ranges decline during the initial 2012–2040 period before shifting southward and ending up larger overall at the end of the 88-year period. The mixed broadleaf forests expand their ranges significantly. The P. orientalis forests, on the other hand, expand their range marginally. The results indicate that climate change and its effects will accelerate significantly in Beijing over the next 88 years. Water stress is likely to be a major limiting factor on the distribution of forests and the most important factor affecting migration of species into and out of existing nature reserves. There is a potential for the extinction of some species. Therefore,long-term vegetation monitoring and warning systems will be needed to protect local species from habitat loss and genetic swamping of native species by hybrids.  相似文献   

14.
We studied moist deciduous forests of Chhattisgarh, India （1） to assess the effect of four levels of historic wildland fire frequency （high, medium, low, and no-fire） on regeneration of seedlings in fire affected areas during pre and post-fire seasons, （2） to evaluate vegetation struc- ture and diversity by layer in the four fire frequency zones, （3） to evalu- ate the impact of fire frequency on the structure of economically impor- tant tree species of the region, and （4） to quantify fuel loads by fire fre- quency level. We classified fire-affected areas into high, medium, low, and no-fire frequency classes based on government records. Tree species were unevenly distributed across fire frequency categories. Shrub density was maximum in zones of high fire frequency and minimum in low- frequency and no-fire zones. Lower tree density after fires indicated that regeneration of seedlings was reduced by fire. The population structure in the high-frequency zone was comprised of seedlings of size class （A） and saplings of size class （B）, represented by Diospyros melanoxylon, Dalbergia sissoo, Shorea robusta and Tectona grandis. Younger and older trees were more abundant for Tectona grandis and Dalbargia sis- soo after fire, whereas intermediate-aged trees were more abundant pre- fire, indicating that the latter age-class was thinned by the catastrophic effect of fire. The major contributing components of fuel load included duff litter and small woody branches and twigs on the forest floor. Total fuel load on the forest floor ranged from 2.2 to 3.38 Mg/ha. The netchange in fuel load was positive in high- and medium-frequency fire zones and negative under low- and no-fire zones. Repeated fires, how- ever, slowly reduced stand stability. An ecological approach is needed for fire management to restore the no-fire spatial and temporal structure of moist deciduous forests, their species composition and fuel loads. The management approach should incorporate participatory forest manage- ment. Use of c  相似文献   

15.
This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Du¨ zlerc?am?(Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change.This was done to produce data,to develop tools to support decisionmaking and the management of vulnerable Mediterranean forest ecosystems affected by climate change,and to increase the ability of these forest ecosystems to adapt to global change.Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected climate indicators,both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier,hotter,more continental and more water-deficient climate.This analysis holds true for all future scenarios,with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030.However,the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become semiarid between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario.All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in this study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site,characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and maquis vegetation,will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation,climate change and variability.  相似文献   

16.
Forest fires occurrence is influenced by many factors, such as inter-annual weather variations and regional fuel distributions. Fires occurrence in different forest region has distinct spatial and temporal characteristics. The paper studied the natural forest fire environment in Northeastern China, as well as forest fires occurrence, burned area and fire seasons in Northeastern Forest Region. The result shows that more than 50% of annual burned area occurred in Northeast China Forest Region. Main fire seasons in the region are spring and autumn. Fires occurrence in spring is larger than that in autumn. There are few fires in summer. The authors＇ suggestions for fire management department are to emphasize the fuel management, improve the roads conditions, and enhance the fires control ability.  相似文献   

17.
The restoration of forest landscape has drawn much attention since the catastrophic fire took place on the northern slope of Great Xing‘an Mountains in 1987. Forest canopy density, which has close relation to forest productivity, was selected as a key factor to find how much the forest quality was changed 13 years after fire, and how fire severity, regeneration way and terrain factors influenced the restoration of forest canopy density, based on forest inventory data in China, and using Kendall Bivariate Correlation Analysis, and Distances Correlation Analysis. The results showed that fire severity which was inversely correlated with forest canopy density grade was an initial factor among all that selected. Regeneration way which did not remarkably affect forest canopy density restoration in short period, may shorten the cycle of forest succession and promote the forest productivity of conophorium in the future, Among the three terrain factors, the effect of slope was the strongest, the position on slope was the second and the aspect was the last.  相似文献   

18.
Larix olgensis is a dominant tree species in the forest ecosystems of the Changbai Mountains of northeast China.To assess the growth response of this species to global climate change,we developed three tree-ring width and biomass chronologies across a range of elevations in the subalpine forests on the eastern slope of the Changbai Mountains.We used dendroclimatic analyses to study key factors limiting radial growth in L.olgensis and its variation with elevation.The statistical characteristics of chronologies suggested that elevation is a determinant of tree growth patterns in the study area.Response function analysis of chronologies with climate factors indicated that climate–growth relationships changed with increasing elevation:tree growth at high elevation was strongly limited by June temperatures of the previous year,and as elevation decreases,the importance of temperature decreased;tree radial growth at mid-elevation was mainly controlled by precipitation towards the end of the growing season of the current year.Biomass chronologies reflected a stronger climatic signal than tree-ring width chronologies.Spatial correlation with gridded climate data revealed that our chronologies contained a strong regional temperature signal for northeast China.Trees growing below timberline appeared to be more sensitive to climate,thus optimal sites for examining growth trends as a function of climate variation are considered to be just below timberline.Our study objective was to provide information for more accurate prediction of the growth response of L.olgensis to future climate change on the eastern slope of the Changbai Mountains,and to provide information for future climate reconstructions using this tree species in humid and semi humid regions.  相似文献   

19.
《林业研究》2020,31(5)
Assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the climate change context is a challenging task as the mechanisms that determine this vulnerability cannot be directly observed. Based on the ecological interrelationships between forests and climate, the present review focused on providing current information about vulnerability assessments of cork oak(Quercus suber L.) forests in the Mediterranean basin, especially, in the Kroumirie region(northwest Tunisia), currently under historic extreme drought conditions. From comparing recent findings in this region, we synthesized data on cork oak decline and mortality collected during the historic drought years 1988–1995 period. Climate change impacts cork forest decline, with special interest shown in elevated temperatures and drought; cork oak forest regeneration, and the adaptation of the Kroumirie forest to climate change, are reviewed herein. The studied region has been influenced largely by frequent prolonged drought periods, especially from 1988 to 1995. Droughts were found to consistently have a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality rates of cork oak populations. Cork oak mortality was recorded for up to 63,622 trees. In the future, more research studies and observational data will be needed, which could represent an important key to understand ecosystem processes, and to facilitate the development of better models that project climate change impacts and vulnerability. The study is useful for researchers and forestry decision makers to develop the appropriate strategies to restore and protect ecosystems, and to help anticipate potential future droughts and climate change.  相似文献   

20.
The age-structure of natural population of Zoysia japonica in Xiuyan County of Liaoning Province was studied by generational method.The results showed that the highest tiller age class was three,but 1st age class tillers held dominant position with proportions over 95% in each month during the growing seasons.The 2nd age class and 2rd age class tillers were minority in the population.So Z.japonica population was an expanding population.The zero age class buds on the rhizomes were dominantin buds age structures.The proportion of buds to tillers on quantity in each month was about 30% to 40% and reached the highest at the end of September.The increasing of buds proportion before dormancy guaranteed the quantity of tillers in the next spring.The biomass of 1st age class tillers changed with time.The biomass kept increasing from April to July and reached the highest at the end of July and then decreased.  相似文献   

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