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1.
The likelihood ratio (LR) is a measure of association that quantifies how many more times likely a particular test result is from an infected animal compared to one that is uninfected. They are ratios of conditional probabilities and cannot be interpreted at the individual animal level without information concerning pretest probabilities. Their usefulness is that they can be used to update the prior belief that the individual has the outcome of interest through a modification of Bayes’ theorem. Bayesian analytic techniques can be used for the evaluation of diagnostic tests and estimation of LRs when information concerning a gold standard is not available. As an example, these techniques were applied to the estimation of LRs for a competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) for diagnosis of Brucella abortus infection in cattle and water buffalo in Trinidad.

Sera from four herds of cattle (n = 391) and four herds of water buffalo (n = 381) in Trinidad were evaluated for Brucella-specific antibodies using a c-ELISA. On the basis of previous serologic (agglutination) test results in the same animals, iterative simulation modeling was used to classify animals as positive or negative for Brucella infection. LRs were calculated for six categories of the c-ELISA proportion inhibition (PI) results pooled for cattle and water buffalo and yielded the following estimations (95% probability intervals): <0.10 PI, 0.05 (0–0.13); 0.10–0.249 PI, 0.11 (0.04–0.20); 0.25–0.349 PI, 0.77 (0.23–1.63); 0.35–0.499 PI, 3.22 (1.39–6.84); 0.50–0.749 PI, 17.9 (6.39–77.4); ≥0.75 PI, 423 (129–∞). LRs are important for calculation of post-test probabilities and maintaining the quantitative nature of diagnostic test results.  相似文献   


2.
The goal of this study was to evaluate the test sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP) of the gamma interferon (G-IFN) assay used for the detection of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in U.S. cattle herds. In addition, the study assessed the association between G-IFN test results and bTB status of cattle, and explored different cut off values for classification of test results in adult cattle using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. Test SE was estimated using a population of 87 confirmed infected cattle from 14 herds distributed in 6 states. Test SP was estimated using a population of 4123 cattle representing 3000 premises in 3 states. These animals were from bTB free areas, accredited bTB free herds, or herds that were historically bTB free based on the absence of lesions found at slaughter and historical records of negative tests performed for bTB surveillance. The distribution of G-IFN results and its association with bTB infection status was also explored in a group of 914 exposed cattle in which infection was not confirmed. The results showed that the SE of the G-IFN for a cut-off value ≥0.1 was 83.9% (76.1, 91.6). The SP of the G-IFN was 90.7% (95% CI: 89.8, 91.6), 97% (95% CI: 96.5, 97.5), and 98.6%(95% CI: 98.2, 98.9), for cut off values of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. For a cut off value ≥0.1, the likelihood ratio of a positive G-IFN test was 9.03 (95% CI: 7.90, 10.31), and the likelihood ratio of a negative G-IFN test was 0.18 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.29). The area under the ROC curve was 0.976 (95% CI: 0.97, 0.98), characteristic of a highly accurate test. ROC analysis also showed that lower cut-off values, such as 0.1, have high SE with suitable SP for use in parallel testing, while cut-off values ranging between 0.3 and 0.6 provide the high SP desired in series-testing protocols with lower SE values. Findings from this study indicated that the G-IFN performs with high accuracy in the field, yielding SE and SP estimates comparable to those reported in previous evaluations (Ryan et al., 2000; Ameni et al., 2000; de la Rua-Domenech et al., 2006; Gormley et al., 2006).  相似文献   

3.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate sensitivity and specificity of 4 commonly used brucellosis screening tests in cattle and domestic water buffalo of Trinidad, and to compare test parameter estimates between cattle and water buffalo. ANIMALS: 391 cattle and 381 water buffalo. PROCEDURE: 4 Brucella-infected herds (2 cattle and 2 water buffalo) and 4 herds (2 of each species) considered to be brucellosis-free were selected. A minimum of 100 animals, or all animals > 1 year of age, were tested from each herd. Serum samples were evaluated for Brucella-specific antibodies by use of standard plate agglutination test (SPAT), card test (CT), buffered plate agglutination test (BPAT), and standard tube agglutination test (STAT). A Bayesian approach was used to estimate sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests without the use of a gold standard, assuming conditional independence of tests. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity estimates in cattle, respectively, were SPAT, 66.7 and 98.9; CT, 72.7 and 99.6; BPAT, 88.1 and 98.1; and STAT, 80.2 and 99.3. Corresponding test estimates in water buffalo, respectively, were SPAT, 51.4 and 99.3; CT, 90.4 and 99.4; BPAT, 96.3 and 90.7; and STAT, 75.0 and 98.8. Sensitivity of the CT and specificity of the BPAT were different between cattle and water buffalo with at least 95% probability. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Brucellosis serologic test performance varied by species tested, but BPAT had the highest sensitivity for screening cattle and water buffalo. Sensitivity and specificity of more than 2 screening tests can be estimated simultaneously without a gold standard by use of Bayesian techniques.  相似文献   

4.
为了解传染性鼻气管炎（IBR）和流行性牛白血病（BL）的流行情况，从重庆市辖区内11个区县（自治县）采集奶牛、黄牛、水牛血清共；369头份，用酶联免疫吸附试验（HLISA）检测IBR和BL抗体。结果从部分区县（自治县）检测出阳性样品，IBE阳性率介于2．70％～20．00％之间，总阳性率为4．61％；奶牛、黄牛、水牛总阳性率分别为5．34％、4．92％、0％。BL阳性率介于2．70％～52．50％之间，总阳性率为12．20％，奶牛、黄牛、水牛总阳性率分别为20．87％、1．64％、0％，提示该病在我市奶牛和黄牛牛群中存在，污染较广，应引起重视。  相似文献   

5.
重庆市部分地区牛病毒性腹泻／粘膜病血清流行病学调查   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
为了解牛病毒性腹泻／粘膜病（BVD／MD）的流行情况,从重庆市辖区内11个区县（自治县）采集奶牛、黄牛、水牛血清共;369头份,用酶联免疫吸附试验（ELISA）检测BVD／MD抗体。结果从9个区县（自治县）检测出阳性样品,阳性率介于8．33％～50．00％之间,总阳性率为22．49％;规模奶牛场、散养奶牛、散养黄牛、散养水牛的阳性率分别为42．16％、9．62％、21．31％、9．76％。提示该病在我市各种牛群中存在,污染较广,应引起重视。  相似文献   

6.
A competitive ELISA (Brucella-Ab c-ELISA) was standardized and validated for the detection of Brucella antibodies in cattle, sheep and goat sera using a monoclonal antibody (MAb 4B5A) produced against Brucella melitensis biotype 2. The specificity and sensitivity of the assay were 100% to a 67.5% cut-off point (B/Bo%). When compared with an indirect ELISA, the Brucella-Ab c-ELISA did not demonstrate cross-reactions when testing positive sera for antibodies to some Enterobacteriaceae. A comparison was made between the Brucella-Ab c-ELISA and the complement fixation and Rose Bengal tests. Results demonstrated that the Brucella-Ab c-ELISA is a valuable tool for the serological diagnosis of bovine and ovine/caprine brucellosis.  相似文献   

7.
Eight-hundred-and-ninety-six cattle belonging to herds officially designated Brucella-free, and 190 cattle belonging to infected herds were tested with the skin delayed-type hypersensitivity (SDTH) test, using brucellin (273) prepared from a mucoid strain of Brucella abortus. An increase in skinfold thickness > or = 2 mm was considered a positive SDTH test. The serum agglutination test, complement fixation test and bacteriological examination were used to confirm SDTH test results. Results show that 6 of the 896 uninfected cattle tested positive in the SDTH test, indicating a 99.3% specificity. Of the 44 cattle that tested serologically or bacteriologically positive, 33 tested positive in the SDTH test, indicating a 75% sensitivity. The value of the SDTH test was demonstrated by its ability to detect infection earlier than serological tests, and by confirming infection in cattle with ambiguous serological test results. An increase in skinfold thickness > or = 1 mm in cattle in suspected herds should not be ignored, as it may indicate specific sensitization. We recommend the use of the SDTH test in combination with serological tests for early diagnosis of brucellosis in cattle.  相似文献   

8.
The preliminary study was conducted to assess the virulence of a strain of Brucella abortus (1969D) and to compare the susceptibility of water buffalo and cattle calves to infection by the intraconjunctival route. Seven of each cattle and water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) calves aged 3–6 months were inoculated intraconjunctivally with counts ranging from 1.5 × 107 to 1.7 × 1010 colony forming units of B. abortus. Animals were monitored over an 8-week period for clinical manifestations and serological and hematological evidence of infection. At slaughter, eight lymph nodes from each animal were sampled for bacteriological and histopathological assessments. Lymph nodes from three water buffalo (43%) and five cattle (71%) yielded B. abortus (P = 0.048). Parotid/prescapular lymph nodes were most sensitive in detecting B. abortus. Our data suggest that B. abortus strain 1969D may be used as challenge strain, and water buffalo appeared to have a lower susceptibility to B. abortus infection than cattle.  相似文献   

9.
We report the results of the first survey for antibody against bluetongue virus (BTV) that was conducted in Switzerland in the year 2003. In a nationwide cross-sectional study with partial verification, 2437 cattle sera collected from 507 herds were analysed using competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (c-ELISA). To adjust for misclassification, 158 sera, including 86 that were recorded equivocal in Switzerland, were sent to the Office Internationale des Epizooties designated regional reference laboratory in the UK for confirmation. No BTV antibody was detected in any of these samples, confirming the absence of BTV from Switzerland in 2003. The specificity of the c-ELISA used in Switzerland for individual Swiss cattle was calculated to be 96.5%. The mean herd sensitivity achieved in our survey ranged from 78.9% to 98.8% depending on the with-in herd prevalence and test sensitivity used for the calculations. The cumulated confidence level achieved with the survey based on a minimal expected prevalence of 2%, was 99.99% and therefore it was concluded that there was no evidence of BTV circulation in Switzerland in 2003.  相似文献   

10.
The Dutch national Brucella abortus eradication programme for cattle started in 1959. Sporadic cases occurred yearly until 1995; the last infected herd was culled in 1996. In August 1999 the Netherlands was declared officially free of bovine brucellosis by the European Union. Before 1999, the programme to monitor the official Brucella-free status of bovine herds was primarily based on periodical testing of dairy herds with the milk ring test (MRT) and serological testing of all animals older than 1 year of age from non-dairy herds, using the micro-agglutination test (MAT) as screening test. In addition, serum samples of cattle that aborted were tested with the MAT. The high number of false positive reactions in both tests and the serum agglutination test (SAT) and complement fixation test (CFT) used for confirmation seemed to result in unnecessary blockade of herds, subsequent testing and slaughter of animals. For this reason, a validation study was performed in which three indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs), the CFT and the SAT were compared using a panel of sera from brucellosis-free cattle, sera from experimentally infected cattle, and sera from cattle experimentally infected with bacteria which are known to induce cross-reactive antibodies (Pasteurella, Salmonella, Yersinia, and Escherichia). Moreover, four ELISAs and the MRT were compared using a panel of 1000 bulk milk samples from Brucella-free herds and 12 milk samples from Brucella abortus- infected cattle. It is concluded that the ELISA obtained from ID-Lelystad is the most suitable test to monitor the brucelosis free status of herds because it gives rise to fewer false-positive reactions than the SAT.  相似文献   

11.
Four serological tests were compared in order to evaluate their efficacies in detecting antibodies to M. mycoides subspecies mycoides SC in cattle sera sampled in 1995 from herds affected with contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) in the north-western part of Botswana. Tests that were compared included immunoblotting test (IBT), indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (i-ELISA), competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (c-ELISA) and complement fixation test (CFT). The percentages of seropositive samples in the iELISA (48%) and in the c-ELISA (48%) were similar but were comparatively lower than those obtained by the IBT (57%) and CFT (61%). The percentages of positive sera in the IBT and CFT were also similar and overall the efficacy of these tests was better than that of the two ELISA tests. There was 95.5% agreement between the IBT and CFT, 85% agreement between the IBT and c-ELISA, 90.9% agreement between the IBT and i-ELISA, 88.6% agreement between the i-ELISA and CFT, 80% agreement between the c-ELISA and CFT and 90% agreement between the two ELISA tests. It became clearly evident from this comparative study that no single serological test was capable of detecting all animals affected by CBPP under natural field conditions of infection.  相似文献   

12.
The water buffalo is an important domestic animal worldwide, and the local Buffalypso variety was developed in Trinidad to have improved beef qualities. Brucellosis was diagnosed in Trinidad and Tobago during 1998 in both cattle and domestic water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) populations. Brucellosis in the latter species is caused by infection with Brucella abortus, similar to bovine brucellosis. Control of brucellosis is of paramount importance to preservation of the genetic diversity of these animals in Trinidad, and this has been complicated by differences in the epidemiology of water buffalo and bovine brucellosis. Some diagnostic tests do not have comparable accuracy between the two species, and the RB51 vaccine does not adequately protect against infection in water buffalo. The water buffalo in Trinidad may also be more resistant to infection than cattle. Development of effective vaccination protocols is key to brucellosis control in Buffalypso in Trinidad, and prohibitions on import of virulent B. abortus strains for vaccine efficacy studies has impeded progress in this area. These Trinidadian strains are of variable virulence; some might be effective for challenge in vaccine efficacy studies, while other, of lower virulence, may be vaccine candidates for use in water buffalo.  相似文献   

13.
Serum samples from 2070 cattle from 40 ranches in northeastern Mexico were tested for antibody activity to Brucella abortus using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The overall prevalence rate in the 40 herds was 2.4% and there was at least one positive animal in 14 herds (35%). The herd prevalence rates ranged from 0 to 13.8% with the average for positive herds of 6.5%. The average proportion positive for the five dairy herds was 7.3%.  相似文献   

14.
Four Texas cattle herds containing cows infected with either Brucella abortus biotype 1, 2, or 4 were studied to determine the probability of transmission of Brucella between adjacent cattle herds, the most probable means by which Brucella was introduced into the herds, and the relative frequency of strain 19 isolation from vaccinated cattle. A total of 1,935 cattle in the four herds were tested for brucellosis; 339 reactors were identified, and isolations of B abortus were made from 143. The biotype of B abortus was used to determine that purchased cattle or reentry of bred heifers into the herds was probably responsible for introducing B abortus and that the biotype was not readily transmitted to adjacent herds. Three (9%) of 32 B abortus isolations from adult-vaccinated cattle were strain 19. The data supported the hypothesis that biotypes can be useful in determining the source of B abortus for cattle and in differentiating field and vaccine strain infections in adult-vaccinated cattle.  相似文献   

15.
OBJECTIVE: To create a stochastic model to quantify the risk that shipments of cattle from regions within the United States would contain animals seropositive for bluetongue virus and to determine shipment-level accuracy of serologic testing by use of a competitive ELISA (c-ELISA). SAMPLE POPULATION: 19,216 shipments containing 528,918 cattle and calves. PROCEDURE: Data were obtained on number of animals and state of origin of cattle in export shipments originating within the United States between January 1994 and March 2002. Probability distributions for size of export shipments were determined for all states within the United States, and distributions for agar gel immunodiffusion and c-ELISA accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) were determined from expert opinion and review of the literature. The model simulated selection of a shipment and then determined the probability that a threshold number or percentage of cattle within that shipment would have a positive c-ELISA result. Shipment-level sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value, and negative-predictive value were calculated. RESULTS: Substantial differences were evident in the regional probability of a shipment being declared positive, with shipments from northeastern states having the lowest probability and shipments from southwestern states having the highest probability. The c-ELISA had variable predictive values at the shipment level, depending on the threshold used and the prevalence of antibody-positive cattle within the region. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results from this study will aid importers in making scientifically based decisions regarding risk of importing antibody-positive cattle.  相似文献   

16.
The movement of cattle from herds infected with Brucella abortus was investigated in order to assess the control measures for eradication of brucellosis from the cattle population of Northern Ireland. Using recorded cattle movement data, a historical cohort study was designed and carried out to quantify the risk of seropositivity in bovine animals moved from herds infected with brucellosis. The study found that 3.1% of animals, moved in the 6-month period prior to disclosure of infection in the source herd and subsequently tested, were interpreted as seropositive in their destination herds. The odds of seropositivity were approximately 19 (95% confidence interval: 7.8-46.4) times higher in this cohort compared with animals from herds with no history of infection. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to examine factors influencing the risk of seropositivity in the exposed cohort of animals, identifying maternal status (whether the dam had been a brucellosis reactor) and age at leaving the infected herd as the main risk factors.  相似文献   

17.
Astroviruses are the principal causative agents of gastroenteritis in humans and have been associated with diarrhea in other mammals as well as birds. However, astroviral infection of animals had been poorly studied. In the present study, 211 rectal swabs collected from cattle and water buffalo calves with mild to severe diarrhea were tested for bovine astrovirus (BAstV) by RT-PCR. Results: 92/211 (43.6%) samples were positive for BAstV, at a rate of 46.10% (71/154) in cattle and 36.84% (21/57) in water buffalo. Phylogenetic analysis based on the partial and full-length of 25 ORF2 amino acid sequences obtained in this study classified the Guangxi BAstVs isolates into five subgroups under the genus of Mamastrovirus, genotype MAstV33, which suggested that the water buffalo was a new host of this genogroup that previously included only cattle and roe deer. Despite the origin of the host, the Guangxi BAstV isolates were closely related to the BAstV Hong Kong isolates (B18/HK and B76-2/HK), but highly divergent from the BAstV NeuroS1 isolate previously associated with neurologic disease in cattle in the U.S.A. Nucleotide sequence-based characterization of the ORF1b/ORF2 junction and corresponding overlapping regions showed distinctive properties, which may be common to BAstVs. Our results suggested that cattle and water buffalo are prone to infection of closely related astroviruses, which probably evolved from the same ancestor. The current study described astroviruses in water buffalo for the first time and is thus far among the largest epidemiological investigations of BAstV infection in cattle conducted in China.  相似文献   

18.
A fluorescence polarization assay (FPA) utilizing fluorescein-labelled MPB70 protein as the antigen was developed and evaluated for its ability to detect antibodies to Mycobacterium bovis in cattle sera. Three panels of sera were examined in this study. These included: (A) sera (n=28) obtained from cattle from which M. bovis was cultured; (B) sera (n=5666) from Canadian field cattle which were presumed to be free from M. bovis; (C) sera (n=10) from cattle infected with Mycobacterium paratuberculosis and known to contain antibodies to this organism. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of the results of panels A and B yielded an area under the curve value of 0.975 (95% confidence interval=0.971-0.979), which indicated that this FPA is an accurate indicator of M. bovis infection. At the cut-off point recommended by the ROC curve analysis, the FPA sensitivity and specificity estimates were 92.9% (95% confidence interval=76.5-98.9%) and 98.3% (95% confidence interval=97.9-98.6%) respectively. The FPA results were compared to the results of the single intradermal (SID) test for the 28 infected cattle. Fifteen of these animals were scored positive with the SID test (sensitivity=53.6%). The FPA detected 15/15 (100%) of the SID test-positive animals and 11/13 (84.6%) of the SID test-negative animals. Two of the culture-positive cattle were not detected by either test. None of the sera that were obtained from the M. paratuberculosis-infected animals cross-reacted in this assay.  相似文献   

19.
Neospora caninum is an apicomplexan protozoan parasite that is one of the most important infectious causes of abortion in both dairy and beef cattle in many countries. The objectives of this longitudinal study were to determine the prevalence, rates of vertical and horizontal transmission of N. caninum and hazard for culling of N. caninum-seropositive animals in three Brazilian dairy herds. Blood samples from all animals were collected nine times at each of the three farms over a two-year period. Serum was tested for antibodies against N. caninum using the indirect fluorescent antibody test with a cutoff value of 1:100. The percentage of N. caninum-positive samples at each sampling time ranged at Farm I from 3.32% to 11.71%, at Farm II from 3.90% to 22.06% and at Farm III from 3.90% to 22.06%. The number of positive serological reactions varied in relation to the number of repeated samples taken from individual animals at each farm. In all herds, there was a high degree (P<0.05) of association between the N. caninum serological status of dams and daughters. The seropositive conversion rate was estimated as 0.37%, 3.00% and 6.94% per 100 cow-years at Farms I, II and III, respectively. The seronegative conversion rate was estimated as 31.58% and 11.11% per 100 cow-years at Farms I and III, respectively. In all herds, there was no difference (P>0.05) in the culling rate between the cattle that were seropositive cattle and seronegative for N. caninum infection. The results from this study confirm the importance of vertical transmission in the epidemiology of N. caninum. Although a few positive seroconversions indicated horizontal transmission, it does not appear to be the major route of infection for N. caninum.  相似文献   

20.
The complement fixation test (CFT), the c-ELISA and an indirect LppQ ELISA were compared to post-mortem (PM) inspection for the diagnosis of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP). Sera from 797 cattle in the CBPP affected area of Kazungula, Zambia and 202 sera from Lusaka, Zambia, a CBPP-free area were used. The clinical history of CBPP was recorded and all the cattle from Kazungula were slaughtered and PM inspections conducted. The prevalence of CBPP in Kazungula was 67.5% (95%CI 67.2%, 70.8%), 52.6% (95%CI 49.2%, 56.2%), 59.0% (95%CI 55.5%, 62.4%) and 44.4% (95%CI 41.0%, 47.9%) using PM inspection, CFT, c-ELISA and LppQ ELISA, respectively. Three of the 202 negative control animals tested positive on the c-ELISA although they were from a known CBPP negative zone. In this study, the c-ELISA was more sensitive in detecting cattle with lesions in the chronic stage than any other test whilst the CFT detected more during the onset stage. No single serological test could detect all stages of CBPP infection, therefore the use of more than one test is advised.  相似文献   

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