共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 234 毫秒
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气候变化对我国农业影响的研究进展 总被引：11，自引：3，他引：11
综述了全球气候变化对我国农业的影响。气候变化直接影响农业湿地作物产量,使水稻产量减少;CO2浓度的增加既有利于作物生长,又会抑制利于作物生长的其他因素;紫外线增多直接使作物产量降低、蛋白质和脂肪减少;气候变暖会影响我国的农业气候条件和种植制度、作物品种的布局、产量、施肥水平;气候变暖将使江河水量、水资源的供需状况、旱涝灾害出现的频率、水质等发生变化,从而影响农业。 相似文献
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近50年中国东北地区气候变化对农业的影响 总被引：19，自引：2，他引：19
赵秀兰 《东北农业大学学报》2010,41(9)
在回顾中国学者关于东北地区气候变化及对农业影响研究成果基础上,系统概括分析了近50年东北地区农业气候资源和灾害的变化特征及气候变化对农业的影响特征。近50年东北地区升温明显,生长季热量资源增加;农业可用水资源和光能资源呈不同程度减少趋势,且时空分布不均。霜冻害、低温冷害、寒潮、洪涝、冰雹等农业气象灾害减少,旱灾增加。东北地区气候变化对农业影响总体有利,表现为作物适宜生育期延长,发育进程加快,全生育期缩短;积温增加且积温带北移东扩明显,主栽作物适宜种植区域扩大;作物品种由中晚熟替换早中熟;作物种植格局的变化为玉米、水稻、马铃薯等喜温作物种植面积扩大,春小麦种植面积减小。在水分为非限制因子的农区,作物气候生产潜力和产量为增加趋势。气候变化对农业影响的研究存在较大的不确定性,有必要针对农业气候变化及其对农业影响等开展系统性研究。 相似文献
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东北地区主要粮食作物对气候变化的响应及其产量效应 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
综述了在全球气候变暖背景下,东北地区农业气候资源、农业气象灾害的变化特征以及主要农作物对气候变化的响应。结果表明,气候变暖给东北地区农业带来的影响利弊共存,主要表现为东北地区主要农作物生长季节温度升高、热量资源增加,适宜农作物生长的时期延长、适种区域扩大,为作物的光温生产潜力以及产量的提高提供了潜在的可能。但由于光照及水资源的限制以及CO2浓度的增加而引发的温室效应,对农作物的产量和品质也产生了负面影响。极端天气事件增加,农作物生态环境恶化,干旱、洪涝、盐碱化速度加快,尤其是近几年受全球变暖的影响,东北地区主要农作物受干旱灾害的影响最为明显。降水总量减少和降水分布不均匀,使东北地区成为受气候变化影响最敏感和脆弱地区之一。 相似文献
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气候变化对中国南方水稻生产的阶段性影响及适应性对策 总被引：30，自引：1，他引：30
根据GISSGCMTransientBRun的输出结果 ,结合中国南方稻区 15个样点近 4 0年的逐日气候资料 ,生成了每个样点在 2 0 10年、2 0 30年和 2 0 5 0年的气候变化情景 ;利用CERES Rice模型在基准气候 (196 0～ 1997年 )以及上述不同年份的气候变化情景下运行的结果 ,结合中国若干农业气候指标 ,分区评述了未来 10年、30年和 5 0年全球气候变化对不同稻作类型水稻生育期、产量、稻田蒸散量的阶段性影响 ,并分析了中国稻作制度可能发生的演进趋势。最后 ,在模拟试验的基础上 ,提出了若干适应气候变化的农业对策 ,包括调整品种布局、有条件地扩种双季稻、改善灌溉条件及培育和引进新品种等。该研究结果对国家及各级农业行政部门制定中远期农业规划和农业发展战略具有重要的参考价值 相似文献
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我国东部样带适应全球气候变化的若干粮食生产对策的模拟研究 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
根据在两种CO#-2有效倍增气候变化情景下进行作物模拟试验以及应用有关农业气候指标进行分析的结果,提出了中国东部样带为适应全球气候变化的若干粮食生产对策。在研究区域的北部与南部。分别采用UKMO和GISS情景进行作物模拟试验,作物模型采用的是在研究区域的23个样点经广泛检验的CERES模型系列。结果表明：研究区域的粮食生产仍有回旋余地和多种适应性对策可供选择,包括提高复种指数、发展多熟种植制度、调整品种布局、改善灌溉条件、引进和培育新品种、调整种植日期等。所有这些在模拟研究基础上得出的结论,为制定中国今后适应全球气候变化的农业发展战略与对策提供了科学依据。 相似文献
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1.气候变化与植被资源 爱沙亚尼Tooming认为,作物的气象产量是评价农业气候资源的综合指标,因此可以采用各种作物模型计算当地的气象产量,进而评价农业气候资源的变化。日本学者Yoshino指出:在区域性气候情景中应考虑季风活动;在分析气候变化与农业生产之间的关系时,应考虑作物和农民适应变化的能力;在土地利用上,应兼顾在新的气候条件下种植面积、作物类型、栽培区域和生育期等诸方面的变化;在管理方法上,排灌、施 相似文献
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为探究滇中农业气候变化规律,应用EOF、典型相关和系统聚类法,提取农业气候主成分因子,研究滇中作物生长旺季气候三要素总量、作物主要生育阶段气候及其时段匹配年型的变化。找到了相互独立、浓缩大量信息、表征农业气候特点和变化的10个主成分因子;客观提练出滇中8种农业气候时段匹配年型及其气候特点。滇中作物生长旺季降水、日照变化比气温显著;20世纪60~70年代气候变化相对平稳;90年代以来光热水总量、各阶段气候主成分因子和时段气候匹配年型变化明显加剧。分析农业气候变化及其影响,需要考虑总时段气候三要素总量和气候的时段匹配年型两方面的变化。本文对应对气候变化、农业产量预测和气候影响评价有指导作用。 相似文献
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适应气候变化的中国农业种植结构调整研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
近百年来,全球正经历一次以变暖为主要特征的气候变化,随着气候变化及其所带来的影响日益显著,目前适应气候变化越来越成为全球关注的热点问题。我国已有的农业种植结构调整适应气候变化实践非常丰富,但诸多研究者并未进行过系统的梳理,对已有实践的适应气候变化内涵没有清晰地认识。为了更好的应对未来气候变化,从种植制度、作物布局、品种布局三个方面阐述了气候变化对中国农业种植结构调整的影响,结合东北水稻玉米扩种、冬麦北移、华北"两晚"技术、长江中下游双季稻改制、南方冬季农业开发等典型适应气候变化案例,探讨复种指数、间作套种模式、作物配置、种植界限、种植比例、抗旱品种、抗病虫害品种等农业种植结构调整的不同方面适应气候变化的内涵,提出了种植结构调整中适应气候变化工作面临的关键问题,倡导进一步加强气候变化各要素对种植熟制的综合影响研究,深入开展农业精细区划与作物布局优化配置研究以及适应气候变化的育种多目标优化决策研究。 相似文献
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Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County,Northeast China 
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下载免费PDF全文 YU Qiang-yi WU Wen-bin LIU Zhen-huan Peter H Verburg XIA Tian YANG Peng LU Zhongjun YOU Liang-zhi TANG Hua-jun 《农业科学学报》2014,13(7):1599-1608
Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers' personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change) associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data (presents real-world climate change) were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level. A case study at Bin County (1980s–2010s), Northeast China, suggested that increased annual average temperature (0.6°C per decade) and decreased annual precipitation (46 mm per decade, both from meteorological datasets) were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%, respectively, of farmers from the survey, and that a longer growing season was confirmed by 70% of them. These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change: Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice, which led to a significant yield increase for both crops. The longer season also affected crop choice: More farmers selected maize instead of soybean, as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area. Comparing warming-related factors, we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers' agricultural decisions. As a result, crop and variety selection, rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement, was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region. 相似文献
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The impacts of climate change on agriculture are still shadowed with uncertainty. However, climate change is expected to adversely affect Iran's agricultural practices through changes in precipitation, temperature and carbon dioxide fertilization. Therefore, adaptation of this sector to the increasing weather events is imperative. This study is aimed to document the likely impacts of climate change on Iran's agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers. The review of literature shows that changes in rainfall and water endowments will have significant impacts on crop yield, crops' water requirements and income and welfare of farm families. The extent of the changes in yield depends on the crop type, assumptions related to the CO2 fertilization effect, climate scenarios and adaptation abilities. On adaptation, the government's efforts have been distinguished in the improving agricultural productivity and irrigation development based on current technology, developing new technologies and policy reforms. Farmers' adaptive responses have also been identified. Some conclusions and recommendations are offered to increase the adaptive capacity of farmers and reduce negative impacts of climate change. 相似文献
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Climate change has been documented as a major threat to current agricultural strategies. Progress in understanding the impact of climate change on crop yield is essential for agricultural climate adaptation, especially for the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(3 H Plain) of China which is an area known to be vulnerable to global warming. In this study, the impacts of climate change on winter wheat(Triticum aestivum L.) yield between the baseline period(1981–2010) and two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) were simulated for the short-term(2010–2039), the medium-term(2040–2069) and the long-term(2070–2099) in the 3 H Plain, by considering the relative contributions of changes in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. Results indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures(TMAX and TMIN), solar radiation(SRAD), and precipitation(PREP) during the winter wheat season increased under these two RCPs. Yield analysis found that wheat yield increased with the increase in SRAD, PREP and CO2 concentration, but decreased with an increase in temperature. Increasing precipitation contributes the most to the total impact, increasing wheat yield by 9.53, 6.62 and 23.73% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 11.74, 16.38 and 27.78% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario. However, as increases in temperature bring higher evapotranspiration, which further aggravated water deficits, the supposed negative effect of increasing thermal resources decreased wheat yield by 1.92, 4.08 and 5.24% for the three terms of future climate under RCP4.5 scenario, and 3.64, 5.87 and 5.81% for the three terms of future climate under RCP8.5 scenario with clearly larger decreases in RCP8.5. Counterintuitively, the impacts in southern sub-regions were positive, but they were all negative in the remaining sub-regions. Our analysis demonstrated that in the 3 H Plain, which is a part of the mid-high latitude region, the effects of increasing thermal resources were counteracted by the aggravated water deficits caused by the increase in temperature. 相似文献
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近年来,气候变化与耕地面积不断缩减对粮食产量产生了巨大挑战。在农业生产中水、肥是必不可少的元素,两者在作物生长发育中紧密相连但又彼此制约,也是影响旱地农业生产和高产优质的必要因素。水氮耦合能调节影响作物吸收土壤水分和养分,并实现水肥一体化管理模式,在保证水肥资源高效利用的同时提高作物产量或不减产。玉米是一种典型的需水量大、需氮量多的作物,不同生育期对水、氮需求量不同,在玉米关键生育阶段水氮供应不足会影响其光合作用,进而影响干物质积累与分配,最终降低玉米产量,浪费农业资源。因此,本文主要综述了水氮耦合对玉米光合作用、干物质积累、水肥利用效率及产量的影响,明确玉米生育期内水氮耦合规律及其交互作用,以期为玉米合理灌溉及施肥提供指导。 相似文献
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根据建昌1960~2009年气象三大要素,采用常规统计方法,分析了年、作物生长季时间尺度热量、光照、降水资源的变化特征。结果表明,热量资源（平均气温、≥0℃、≥10℃活动积温）呈明显的升高和增加趋势;光照资源、降水资源呈不同程度的下降减少趋势。光、热、水等气候条件的改变,使得气候资源从新整合,对建昌农业生产的影响利弊共存。一方面,气候变化使建昌地区热量资源增加,将使作物生育期延长,提高复种指数,增加单位面积产量;另一方面,光照资源和降水资源的趋势减少,造成了农业生产的不稳定性增加。纵观气候变暖的利弊关系,应该是弊大于利,因此,提高对气候变暖的认知和应对能力,非常必要。 相似文献
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全球气候变暖加大了我国农业发展的不确定性。本文基于我国气候变化的基本事实，分析了气候变化对我国农业发展的影响。结果表明，气候变化导致气温和降水变化，对我国作物生长、产量和农业潜在生产力等产生重要影响，对作物品质和产量带来直接影响，加剧了农业病虫害的发生和流行，进而加大了对农业经济的影响，同时还影响了我国农业种植制度。本研究为农业生产适应气候变化、确保高质量发展提供了参考。 相似文献
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According to the general circulation models (CGMs) for future climate projections, a temperature increase, precipitation decrease, and an increase in the variability of extreme events may be expected in the future, likely reducing available water resources. For the western Mediterranean, future climate change projections indicate that temperature increase may range from 1.5 °C to 3.6 °C, and the precipitation decline will reach between 10% and 20%, which may result in a significant reduction of natural groundwater recharge. With the use of modelling tools, the amount of groundwater recharge under different climate change scenarios and varying agricultural management practices can be predicted, and water budget attributes can be estimated, which may allow for quantifying impacts, and assist in defining adaptation strategies. For the Inca–Sa Pobla basin (Balearic Islands, Spain), under future climate change projections, agricultural management alternatives of crop type distribution and irrigation demands are required for planned adaptation strategies. In the area, where irrigation water for agricultural practices originates from groundwater resources, adaptation measures based on a change from mixed crops to potatoes and a 20% decrease of agricultural land cultivation have proven to be efficient for the hydrologic system and associated wetland sustainability. 相似文献