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1.
Cross-contamination of cattle feed with meat and bone meal (MBM) allowed in feed for other species is regarded as the current hypothesis for the infection pathway of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) cases occurring after the implementation of a ban on feeding MBM to cattle. This study was aimed at establishing a spatial relation between BSE cases in Switzerland and the findings of MBM in cattle feed. A cluster analysis and a cohort study were performed. Two hundred sixteen BSE cases born after December 1990 and detected until August 1st 2005, screening data of 504 feed producers between 1996 and 2001 and population data from the Swiss 2001 cattle census were included. The cluster analysis showed feed producer, positive for MBM contaminations in cattle feed, as possible cluster centres for BSE cases. In the cohort study, farms within a radius of 2 and 10 km around positive feed producers showed significantly higher odds to have a BSE case than the control group. The odds ratio and its 95% confidence interval were 2.23 (1.26-3.93) for the 2 km radius and 1.38 (1-1.9) for the 10 km radius. The results provide evidence for a spatial relation between cross-contamination and BSE occurrence. These findings support the hypothesis of cross-contamination to be an important route for BSE transmission after a feed ban.  相似文献   

2.
In France, meat-and-bone meal (MBM) has been prohibited for cattle feeding since 1990, but bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases, called 'NAIF', appeared in animals born after this feed ban. Furthermore, in 1996 a new measure was taken: removal of cadavers and specified risk materials (SRM) from the processing of MBM dedicated to animal feed. Nevertheless, BSE cases (called 'super-NAIF') appeared in cattle born after this measure was in force. We analysed the spatial distribution of 445 'NAIF' and 58 'super-NAIF' cases detected in France from July 1, 2001 to July 31, 2003. The detection of BSE was based both on the mandatory reporting system (MRS) and the systematic test screening of cattle at the abattoir and at the fallen-animal plant with rapid tests. The background population was based on the adult-cow census. The disease mapping of the BSE risk was based on the standardised incidence ratio (stochastic Poisson process). A spatial component, which takes into account the spatial dependence between the geographical units by a notion of adjacency was used to eliminate the over-dispersion in the risk assessment. The geographical units were defined by hexagons with a side of 23km (France had 1264 hexagons). The parameters were estimated by a Metropolis Gibbs sampling algorithm using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. The BSE cases were not randomly distributed. Furthermore, the areas at risk for the 'super-NAIF' matched part of the areas at risk for the 'NAIF' cases-which suggests that it might be a common source of contamination.  相似文献   

3.
The feeding of meat-and-bone meal (MBM) derived from cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a major source of BSE infection. The risks of BSE infection via MBM in Japan were examined quantitatively to estimate infectivity to cattle via MBM derived from a single clinically infected animal being rendered. Three routes of exposure were modeled: (i) feeding cattle concentrates containing MBM as an ingredient, (ii) feeding cattle concentrates contaminated with MBM from non-ruminant feed at feed plants and (iii) directly feeding MBM in supplemental form to cattle on farms. The effectiveness of measures designed to restrict the feeding of ruminants with ruminant MBM (feed restriction) as well as differences in the risk of exposure among regions were examined using the model.

The model revealed that the median total infectivity fed to dairy cattle via MBM derived from one infected animal was approximately 0.49 cattle oral ID50 (5th percentile = 0.43 ID50, 95th percentile = 0.54 ID50). This value was reduced by 55% after the addition of MBM to cattle concentrates was restricted in 1996. The risk of exposure in dairy cattle was twice that in beef cattle. Comparisons of regional differences in exposure risk indicated that the risk was highest in a region where 14 of the 20 BSE cases reported to date were born. Our model suggested that the routes of exposure via MBM were unlikely to result in increased propagation of BSE in Japan. Furthermore, despite some regional variation, the risk of exposure declined further after the feed restriction was imposed in 1996.  相似文献   


4.
A spatio-temporal analysis was carried out to see how the risk distribution of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in France changed depending on the period of birth. The data concerned the 539 BSE cases born in France after the ban (BAB) of meat and bone meal (MBM) in 1990 and detected between July 1, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance of BSE was comprehensive. Seventy-two of these cases were born after the reinforced (second) ban (BASB) in 1996, which involved the removal of BSE-risk materials and cadavers from the processing of MBM. The Ederer-Myers-Mantel (EMM) time and space cluster test was applied, after classifying the cases by trimester and region of birth, BAB or BASB status, and dairy or beef status. Then disease mapping was performed for four successive birth periods, three for the BAB cases (January 1991 through June 1994, July 1994 through June 1995, July 1995 through June 1996), and one for the BASB (July 1996 through October 1998). It was elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method. The main finding was that the areas with the highest risk of BSE changed largely from one birth period to another; from the west, it reached the east of France for birth cohort 1994-1995 and the southwest for birth cohort 1995-1996. The EMM test identified a peak risk in this region both for dairy and beef cattle in the fall 1995. The spatial distribution of the risk for the BASB cases matched the spatial pattern of risk for the preceding BAB birth cohort quite well; this was in favour of a common origin of the infection of the BAB and BASB cases, despite the complementary control measures.  相似文献   

5.
In this paper we investigate area-level risk factors for BSE for the cattle population present in Great Britain between 1986 and 1997. By dividing this population into two birth cohorts, those born before the July 1988 ban on feeding ruminant-derived meat and bone meal to ruminants and those born after, second-order regional influences are distinguished from the strong first-order south-to-north gradient of area-level BSE risk using Bayesian hierarchical models that account for structured (spatially correlated) and unstructured heterogeneity in the data. For both cohorts area-level risk of BSE was increased by a more southerly location and greater numbers of dairy cattle, relative to non-dairy cattle. For the cohort of cattle born after the July 1988 ban on feeding ruminant-derived meat and bone meal area-level BSE risk was additionally associated with greater numbers of pigs, relative to cattle. These findings support the role of low level cross-contamination of cattle feed by pig feed as an influence on BSE incidence risk as the epidemic evolved. Prior to the 1988 meat and bone meal ban unexplained BSE risk was relatively uniformly distributed across the country whereas after the ban there were spatially aggregated areas of unexplained risk in the northern and eastern regions of England suggesting that local influences allowed BSE control measures to be less-successfully applied in these areas, compared with the rest of the country. We conclude that spatially localised influences were operating in divergent ways during the two phases of the epidemic.  相似文献   

6.
An important aspect of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic has been an apparent age-dependent risk of infection, with younger cattle being more likely to become infected than older cattle. Our objective was to determine the age-dependent risk of infection of dairy cattle. We first reviewed unpublished data on the feeding patterns of proprietary concentrates for dairy-replacement cattle. These data showed that autumn- and spring-born cattle would receive different feeding patterns of proprietary concentrates, and so age-dependent risk of infection profiles were obtained separately for autumn- and spring-born cattle. We used back-calculation methods to analyse BSE-epidemic data collected in Great Britain between 1984 and 1996.

Dairy cattle were most at risk in the first 6 months of life; adult cattle were at relatively low risk of infection. Between 6 and 24 months of age, risk profiles reflected feeding patterns of proprietary concentrates in each of the autumn- and spring-born cohorts.  相似文献   


7.
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8.
The effectiveness of two measures against Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), the compulsory processing of animal by products to meat and bone meal (MBM) at 133 degrees C under 3 bars of pressure for 20 minutes in February 1993 and the exclusion of fallen stock, heads with eyes and spinal cord of cattle older than 30 month from MBM production in April 1996, was evaluated in a process model. The transmission of BSE by calculation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 was modelled.The results were verified by use of a cohort model, based on observed surveillance data. Prior to 1990, before the ban of feeding MBM to ruminants, R0, as calculated in the process model, was above 1, coherent with a slowly progressing BSE epidemic. Since 1991, values of R0 were low at 0.06.The corresponding R0 values derived from the cohort model were higher, the lowest value 0.13 calculated for 1996. Given such low R0 values, the epidemic should have died out. Additionally, no influence of the two measures was obvious at that time given the low level of R0. The discrepancy between the results of the two models is evidence for a dependency of the BSE epidemic from an infection source not considered in the process model. This infection source is most likely importation of feed ingredients and MBM.  相似文献   

9.
The aim of this study is to identify, as hypotheses, all feasible sources and routes of infection for the BSE cases in Japan, and to study the probability of each hypothesis. The strategy of this epidemiological study is as follows. 1) BSE risk status in Japan is tentatively divided into 3 stages, i.e., before 1996 April when administrative guidance for feed ban of cattle MBM introduced. After that to 2001 September, the first case of BSE in Japan, then, after 2001 October with real feed ban in the law. 2) Make hypotheses depending on the invasive risk scenarios and propagation risk of BSE in Japan, and they are checked by evidences, case control study or statistics. 3) Grouping of BSE cattle was conducted time sequentially and spatially; that is Group-A (1995-96, born in Hokkaido, Kanto), Group-B (1999 in Kyushu), Group-C (1999-2001 in Hokkaido), Group-D (young cattle born after real feed ban) and Pre-A, Post-D groups. As a result, a milk replacer was considered one of the most probable cause of group-A contamination, and group-C outbreak might be caused by an indigenous BSE propagation of group-A in Hokkaido. If the hypothesis of Holland animal fat as causative material was accepted, however, there are several unexplainable points. Collection of scientific evidences on animal fat impurity and age dependent susceptibility to BSE will be needed to clarify the true causative material.  相似文献   

10.
A spatial analysis was carried out in order to analyse the reason why the risk of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) was spatially heterogeneous in France, during the period following the feed ban of Meat and Bone Meal to cattle. The hypothesis of cross-contamination between cattle feedstuff and monogastric feedstuff, which was strongly suggested from previous investigations, was assessed, with the assumption that the higher the pig or poultry density is in a given area, the higher the risk of cross-contamination and cattle infection might be. The data concerned the 467 BSE cases born in France after the ban of meat and bone meal (July 1990) and detected between July 1st, 2001 and December 31, 2003, when the surveillance system was optimal and not spatially biased. The disease mapping models were elaborated with the Bayesian graphical modelling methods and based on a Poisson distribution with spatial smoothing (hierarchical approach) and covariates. The parameters were estimated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The main result was that the poultry density did not significantly influence the risk of BSE whereas the pig density was significantly associated with an increase in the risk of 2.4% per 10 000 pigs. The areas with a significant pig effect were located in regions with a high pig density as well as a high ratio of pigs to cattle. Despite the absence of a global effect of poultry density on the BSE risk, some areas had a significant poultry effect and the risk was better explained in some others when considering both pig and poultry densities. These findings were in agreement with the hypothesis of cross-contamination, which could take place at the feedstuff factory, during the shipment of food or on the farm. Further studies are needed to more precisely explore how the cross-contamination happened.  相似文献   

11.
An assessment was made of the risks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) occurring in Argentina. Most of the factors associated with the origin and development of the BSE epidemic in the UK are essentially absent. For example, Argentina's large sheep and cattle industries are based on low-cost production systems using grass. Concentrated feeds are not used for sheep, rarely for beef cattle and to a comparatively modest extent for dairy cows. Particularly important are the facts that scrapie (and BSE) has never been reported in Argentina—very small amounts of waste tissues from sheep are rendered to produce meat and bone meal (MBM)—and MBM is not used in concentrated feeds for cattle. We conclude that Argentina has an exceptionally low risk of BSE due to scrapie. There is a very small risk of BSE having been introduced via live animals imported from countries with BSE, but this could only give rise to isolated cases because MBM is not fed to cattle.

A surveillance programme has been carried out based largely on a histological examination of brains from three categories of old dairy cows: animals reported on the suspicion of having neurological disease; animals in poor condition at slaughter; healthy animals randomly selected in the abattoir. No evidence of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy was seen in several sections from each of a total of 1019 brains. We conclude that, for most practical purposes, Argentina may be considered to be free from BSE.  相似文献   


12.
The paper describes how the comprehensive surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and studies carried out on these data has enhanced our knowledge of the epidemiology of BSE. Around 7, 000 BSE cases were detected through the screening of about 50 million cattle with rapid tests in Europe. It confirmed that the clinical surveillance had a poor capacity to detect cases, and also showed the discrepancy of this passive surveillance efficiency between regions and production types (dairy/beef). Other risk factors for BSE were being in a dairy herd (three times more than beef), having a young age at first calving (for dairy cattle), being autumn-born (dairy and beef), and being in a herd with a very high milk yield. These findings focus the risk on the feeding regimen of calves/heifers. Several epidemiological studies across countries suggest that the feedborne source related to meat and bone meal (MBM) is the only substantiated route of infection - even after the feed ban -, while it is not possible to exclude maternal transmission or milk replacers as a source of some infections. In most European countries, the average age of the cases is increasing over time and the prevalence decreasing, which reflects the effectiveness of control measures. Consistent results on the trend of the epidemic were obtained using back-calculation modelling, the R(0) approach and Age-Period-Cohort models. Furthermore, active surveillance also resulted in the finding of atypical cases. These are distinct from previously found BSE and classified in two different forms based on biochemical characteristics; their prevalence is very low (36 cases up to 1st September 2007), affected animals were old and some of them displayed clinical signs. The origin and possibility of natural transmission is unknown.  相似文献   

13.
It has been recommended that meat-and-bone meal (MBM) be incinerated at 850 °C for at least 2 s and the ashes and slag disposed of in controlled landfills, to dispose of animal-derived proteins. Most commonly, the MBM is incinerated in cement works or coal-fired power plants and the ashes and slag are incorporated into the cement or concrete.

Our goal was to assess with a Monte Carlo simulation model the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) risk to cattle and humans posed by the ash and slag. The results will be used by decision makers to evaluate the need for disposal of the fly ash in controlled landfills and the feasibility of use of the ash by the phosphate and fertilizer industries.

We assumed that all specified risk material (SRM) and MBM produced in Denmark would be incinerated in this gas-fired power plant. Based on observations in 2001, we assumed that, on average, six (range: 0–15) clinical BSE cases each year were rendered into MBM and incinerated. In addition, SRM or carcasses from 0 to 31 (median = 10) BSE-infected-but-undetected animals/BSE case were also incinerated.

The simulations were run on a 1-week basis. Our results suggest that if the slag is collected and re-incinerated the median BSE infectivity remaining in the fly ash per week would be 3.1E−11 cattle ID50. A cattle ID50 is the amount of infectivity that will cause infection in 50% of cattle exposed to it. During the weeks when BSE was infected in the SRM-MBM, the median infectivity in the fly ash was estimated as 8.7E−10 cattle ID50 and 2.9E−12 human ID50. The 95th percentiles were 2.1E−08 cattle ID50 and 5.8E−10 human ID50, respectively. One ton of fly ash would contain ≤1.8E−07 cattle ID50 95% of the time. These are the potential exposures of the cattle or human populations. The potential exposures of individuals are far less.  相似文献   


14.
Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a transmissible fatal neurodegenerative disease in cattle with an average incubation time of five years. The first BSE case in an indigenous cow was detected in Germany in November 2000. This was almost eight years after the huge BSE epidemic in the United Kingdom had peaked, and several years after many EU member states had seen their first BSE case. In the 1990s, BSE had been diagnosed in six imported animals in Germany. However, after the implementation of an active surveillance programme using BSE rapid testing systems, 399 indigenous German BSE cases have been found up to the end of July 2006. The birth cohorts of 1995-1997 contribute to the vast majority of the first 250 German cases that were diagnosed between 2000 and 2003. However, the most recent German BSE cases belong primarily to the birth cohorts 1998-2000 which is indicative of a recycling of BSE infectivity at that time. Moreover, there were two BSE cases in cattle born in spring 2001, i.e. after the meat and bone meal feed ban had come into effect on 2nd December 2000. In this article, we describe the dynamics of the German BSE epidemic and compare these data with those of other countries that observed larger numbers of cases.  相似文献   

15.
In Switzerland there was a reduction in the number of cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, observed in the birth cohorts from 1995 to 1996, but no further reduction in the following birth cohorts up to 1998. From the records of 34 cases born after April 30, 1996 (BAB96) and 174 cases born before April 30, 1996 and after December 1990 (BAB90), observed up to April 30, 2004, the risk factors at the farm level, possible routes of exposure and the geographical distribution of the cases were analysed to try to explain the observations. No evidence was found for a rate of exposure other than feed. There was some evidence that the risk factors at farm level were different between the BAB90 and BAB96 cases. A large proportion of the BAB96 cases was born in cantons that had reported only a few BAB90 cases, but a small cluster of the BAB96 cases was found in a region where there had been a cluster of BAB90 cases. The spatial distribution of these cases indicated that the risk of exposure to infection had been more randomly distributed than during the period up to April 1996. Farms with mixed livestock had a higher risk of having a case born after the ban on the feeding of specified risk material in 1996. In a regression model, a trend towards an association between cases of BSE and presence of small ruminants on the farm was observed for the BAB96 cases, and the presence of pigs and the pig:cattle ratio were significant for the BAB90 cases.  相似文献   

16.
This paper reports the results of a case-control study of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases born in Great Britain after the statutory reinforcement of the ban (BARB) on the feeding of mammalian-derived meat and bone meal on 31 July 1996. A total of 499 suspect clinical cases of BSE, born after 31 July 1996, and reported negative by July 31, 1996 and were compared with the set of 164 confirmed Great BARB cases in Great Britain detected by both passive and active surveillance. Animal-level risk factors (age and type of feed offered) and herd-level risk factors (herd size and type, number of prereinforced feed ban BSE cases born on the holding, the presence of other domestic species and waste management) were obtained for the analysis. BARB cases were 2.56 times (95 per cent CI 1.29 to 5.07) more likely to be exposed to homemix or a combination of homemix and proprietary feeds were 0.59 times (95 per cent CI 0.50 to 0.69) as less likely to be exposed to the unit increases in the number of prereinforced feed ban BSE cases diagnosed on the natal holding. A supplementary spatial analysis of these cases revealed three areas of excess BARB density: Northwest and Southwest of Wales and Northeast of Scotland.  相似文献   

17.
We present epidemiological data from Bavaria that indicates that animals of the Brown Swiss (BS) cattle breed might be more susceptible to BSE than animals from other breeds, both in terms of disease prevalence and length of the incubation period. BS animals were disproportionately represented among the BSE cases (BS represented about 9% of the susceptible population but 27% of actual cases). BS were slaughtered at a higher age (5.8 years vs. 5.0 years for other breeds), and there is a higher prevalence of feeding proprietary feeds to BS calves than calves from other breeds. There was no difference in the recorded feeding practice of BSE-positive animals from BS or other breeds. These results would lead to expect a higher prevalence of BSE in the BS population, with BS BSE animals being of equal age or older than BSE animals from other breeds. In contrast, median age at BSE detection was significantly lower in BS animals than in other breeds (61.4 vs. 68.8 months). There was no difference in the identification categories of BSE between BS animals and animals of other breeds that could explain this difference in age. BS cattle are reported to have more octapeptid repeats in the prion protein gene than other breeds, which could account for shorter incubation periods and higher susceptibility. These observations suggest that BS animals and their tissues should be used in further studies into genetic determinants of BSE susceptibility in cattle.  相似文献   

18.
Over one-third of the cases of BSE in Switzerland have been born after the feed ban of December 1, 1990. Evidence for the geographical clustering of these cases emerged in two distinct regions. All the 354 BSE cases recorded until June 30, 2000 (set A), and the 376 cases recorded up to May 14, 2001 (set B), were georeferenced to the centres of the communities in which the herds of origin were located, and control populations were georeferenced to the centres of the communities in which these herds were located at the time of the census. The latitudes and longitudes of these centres were used in the statistical analysis of the spatial clustering. The Cuzick-Edwards test and the spatial scan statistics were applied to assess the significance of the clusters, while controlling for the spatial distribution of the underlying cattle population. There was global clustering of the cases born after the ban, and distinct and significant (P<0.05) spatial clusters were repeatedly identified in the two case datasets, and in several control populations (all cases born before the feed ban on a random sample of control farms) in terms of cattle density by region or cow density by region. Differential reporting was excluded as the underlying reason for the observed clusters.  相似文献   

19.
The objectives of this study were first to determine the cumulative incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the British cattle population from July 1986 to June 1997, secondly, to identify individual animal-associated risk factors that influenced the age of onset of clinical signs in confirmed BSE cases, and, thirdly, to assess the effectiveness of the measures introduced to control BSE during the epidemic. The analyses were based on the population of British cattle at risk, derived from agricultural census data collected between 1986 and 1996, and BSE case data collected up to June 30, 1997. The unit of interest was individual adult cattle recorded on annual agricultural censuses between June 1986 and June 1996. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis techniques were used to characterise the age of onset of clinical signs. In total 167,366 cases of BSE were diagnosed in Great Britain up to June 30, 1997. The cumulative incidence of BSE between July 1986 and June 1997 was 1.10 (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.10) cases per 100 adult cattle at risk. Cattle from the South east, South west and Eastern regions of England had 4.26 to 5.96 (95 per cent CI 4.15 to 6.14) times as great a monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE as cattle from Scotland. Compared with cattle born before June 1985, those born between July 1987 and June 1988 had 22.5 (95 per cent CI 22.1 to 22.8) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE, whereas those born in the 12 months after July 1988 had only 7.39 (95 per cent CI 7.24 to 7.54) times the monthly hazard of being confirmed with BSE. This reduction in hazard was directly attributable to the ban on the use of ruminant protein as a feed instituted in July 1988. Successive cohorts from 1989 to 1991 experienced further reductions in the hazard of experiencing BSE. The additional decrease in hazard observed for the 1990 cohort may be attributed to the effect of the Specified Bovine Offal ban instituted in September 1990.  相似文献   

20.
Following the identification of meat and bonemeal as the most likely source of exposure for the occurrence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain case-control studies were initiated to investigate this hypothesis. These involved a comparison of the consumption of specific proprietary calf feedstuffs, and whether or not meat and bonemeal had been included, between animals born in 1983-84 in BSE-unaffected herds and confirmed cases of BSE also born in 1983-84. The feeding of proprietary concentrates containing meat and bonemeal was found to be a statistically significant risk factor for the occurrence of BSE. These studies therefore support the initial hypothesis that BSE occurred as a result of exposure to a scrapie-like agent via meat and bonemeal.  相似文献   

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