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1.
Abstract– We used six polymorphic microsatellite loci to investigate a potential metapopulation system in bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) from five spawning localities in the Lightning Creek drainage, a tributary to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho. The number of spawners as estimated by redd counts is low in all populations sampled. Analytic viability models indicate that local isolated populations of these sizes are unlikely to persist. We tested two hypotheses: (1) these are remnant populations that are vulnerable to local extinction, or (2) these populations are interconnected by migration and are being maintained at larger effective sizes than indicated by the redd counts (i. e. metapopulation dynamics). All populations within the Lightning Creek basin are significantly differentiated ( P > 0.005), and the allele frequencies appear to be stable among temporally separated subsamples within locations. It is therefore unlikely that extensive dispersal has linked tributaries in a manner consistent with a metapopulation structure. The low number of spawning individuals combined with the degree of isolation indicated by the genetic data suggest that extinction of the tributary populations is probable if temporal variability and small size is prolonged. However, these populations contain amounts of genetic variation similar to populations throughout the range of bull trout. Therefore, if the apparent demographic trends are reversed, these populations may recover without suffering the detrimental effects of a severe bottleneck.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract – Spatial structures can drive population dynamics and persistence. The roles of space and dispersal on dynamics, however, remain largely unknown in wild populations, mainly because of the difficulty in extensive/intensive field surveys at multiple locations. Here, I integrate results of ecological, demographic and genetic studies to elucidate detailed population structure and to identify the mechanisms of population persistence in a stream fish. Spatial structures, such as habitat size and connectivity, are particularly important in river and freshwater networks because such ecosystems are highly vulnerable to human activities. These issues are explored by examining results from a decadal research on the stream‐dwelling Dolly Varden charr in the Sorachi River basin, Japan. More than 100 local habitats (i.e. tributaries) were examined for spatial structure of populations by, such as, species presence, population census, redd counts, analysis of population synchrony and microsatellite DNA analysis. The results indicate that (i) population demography is largely independent in each tributary, (ii) some large tributaries support self‐sustaining populations, (iii) despite small population sizes in most tributaries (<30 spawning females), local extinction is rare, except in human‐influenced areas and (iv) probabilities of extinction are likely reduced by immigration of fish from neighbouring tributaries. The evidence suggests that Dolly Varden in this river system function as a source‐sink or mainland‐island metapopulation structure and that processes influencing these structures vary within the stream network. Overall, local populations may be highly persistent as long as local populations are well connected. I also discuss the vulnerability of stream fishes to habitat alterations.  相似文献   

3.
The metapopulation paradigm has been central to improve the conservation and management of natural populations. However, despite the large number of studies on metapopulation dynamics, the overall support for the relationships on which the paradigm is based has not been strong. Here, we studied the occupancy dynamics of two Neotropical fishes (i.e., Pimelodella gracilis and Leporinus friderici) to investigate two fundamental premises of the metapopulation paradigm, that is, that isolation and area/habitat quality affect colonisation and extinction probabilities in predictable ways. In order to do this, we used a modification of occupancy models that allows modelling the probability of a site's occupancy as a function of the occupancy of its neighbourhood. We found a weak positive effect of neighbourhood occupancy on Pgracilis colonisation, which is consistent with the propagule rain metapopulation, that is, colonists arriving from outside the studied system. However, we found a strong negative neighbourhood effect on extinction probability, suggesting that declining populations from stream sections are rescued from extinction by neighbouring patches. In contrast, the effect of neighbourhood occupancy on the metapopulation dynamics of L. friderici was in the opposite direction, affecting positively colonisation but not affecting extinction rates, which is consistent with the classical metapopulation model. In addition, the occupancy dynamics of both species were affected by water velocity. To our knowledge, this is the first study to link directly dispersal to local population dynamics in Neotropical fishes, and one of the few studies doing inferences on spatial population dynamics based on direct estimates of neighbourhood occupancy.  相似文献   

4.
Salmonids are an important component of biodiversity, culture and economy in several regions, particularly the North Pacific Rim. Given this importance, they have been intensively studied for about a century, and the pioneering scientists recognized the critical link between population structure and conservation. Spatial structure is indeed of prime importance for salmon conservation and management. At first glance, the essence of the metapopulation concept, i.e. a population of populations, widely used on other organisms like butterflies, seems to be particularly relevant to salmon, and more generally to anadromous fish. Nevertheless, the concept is rarely used, and barely tested. Here, we present a metapopulation perspective for anadromous fish, assessing in terms of processes rather than of patterns the set of necessary conditions for metapopulation dynamics to exist. Salmon, and particularly sockeye salmon in Alaska, are used as an illustrative case study. A review of life history traits indicates that the three basic conditions are likely to be fulfilled by anadromous salmon: (i) the spawning habitat is discrete and populations are spatially separated by unsuitable habitat; (ii) some asynchrony is present in the dynamics of more or less distant populations and (iii) dispersal links populations because some salmon stray from their natal population. The implications of some peculiarities of salmon life history traits, unusual in classical metapopulations, are also discussed. Deeper understanding of the population structure of anadromous fish will be advanced by future studies on specific topics: (i) criteria must be defined for the delineation of suitable habitats that are based on features of the biotope and not on the presence of fish; (ii) the collection of long‐term data and the development of improved methods to determine age structure are essential for correctly estimating levels of asynchrony between populations and (iii) several key aspects of dispersal are still poorly understood and need to be examined in detail: the spatial and temporal scales of dispersal movements, the origin and destination populations instead of simple straying rates, and the relative reproductive success of immigrants and residents.  相似文献   

5.
Understanding spatial population structure and biocomplexity is critical for determining a species’ resilience to environmental and anthropogenic perturbations. However, integrated population models (IPMs) used to develop management advice for harvested populations have been slow to incorporate spatial dynamics. Therefore, limited research has been devoted to understanding the reliability of movement parameter estimation in spatial population models, especially for spatially dynamic marine fish populations. We implemented a spatial simulation–estimation framework that emulated a generic marine fish metapopulation to explore the impact of ontogenetic movement and climate‐induced distributional shifts between two populations. The robustness of spatially stratified IPMs was explored across a range of movement parametrizations, including ignoring connectivity or estimating movement with various levels of complexity. Ignoring connectivity was detrimental to accurate estimation of population‐specific biomass, while implementing spatial IPMs with intermediate levels of complexity (e.g. estimating movement in two‐year and two‐age blocks) performed best when no a priori information about underlying movement was available. One‐way distributional shifts mimicking climate‐induced poleward migrations presented the greatest estimation difficulties, but the incorporation of auxiliary information on connectivity (e.g. tag‐recapture data) reduced bias. The continued development of spatially stratified modelling approaches should allow harvested resources to be better utilized without increased risk. Additionally, expanded collection and incorporation of unique spatially explicit data will enhance the robustness of IPMs in the future.  相似文献   

6.
  • 1. Marine reserves can play an important role in the conservation of subpopulations of marine fish metapopulations. The population spatial structure of northern Atlantic cod of Newfoundland and Labrador has characteristics of a metapopulation. Subpopulations of northern Atlantic cod on the continental shelf were decimated by decades of overfishing, and have not recovered. The remaining northern cod are concentrated in coastal areas.
  • 2. A Marine Protected Area (MPA) was established in Gilbert Bay, Labrador by the Government of Canada in 2005 to protect the bay's resident subpopulation of northern Atlantic cod. Conservation of Gilbert Bay cod will help protect the genetic diversity of the northern cod metapopulation.
  • 3. Unlike some other MPAs, Gilbert Bay is not a harvest refugium or ‘no‐take’ reserve. Aboriginal subsistence fisheries for salmonids with a bycatch of cod are allowed in designated areas of the MPA. A recreational fishery for Atlantic cod by angling open to all people is under consideration. Management of the MPA must ensure that fishing activities do not endanger the local cod population.
  • 4. The population dynamics of Gilbert Bay cod were simulated using an age‐structured Leslie matrix model to estimate the total mortality under various recreational fishing scenarios. The level of sustainable harvest by a recreational fishery depends on the natural mortality of the Gilbert Bay cod population, which is unknown. Therefore, there is risk in permitting a recreational fishery in the MPA.
  • 5. There may be benefits to the northern cod metapopulation, if the Gilbert Bay subpopulation is allowed to rebuild to the carrying capacity of the bay. If the abundance of Gilbert Bay cod exceeds the level which the local marine ecosystem can support, some cod may emigrate from the bay and recolonize adjacent coastal areas. The potential for Gilbert Bay cod to recolonize continental shelf areas is less certain.
Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract – Metapopulation theory has attracted considerable interest with reference to the salmonids. There has been little empirical evidence, however, to guide the evaluation or application of metapopulation concepts. From knowledge of salmonid life histories and our own work with bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), Lahontan cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki henshawi ) and westslope cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi ), we suggest that simple generalizations of salmonid metapopulations are inappropriate. Although spatial structuring and dispersal mechanisms are evident, the relevance of extinction and colonization processes are likely to vary with life history, species, scale, and landscape. Understanding dispersal, the role of suitable but unoccupied habitats, and the potential for extinction debts in non-equilibrium metapopulations are key issues. With regard to conservation of salmonids, we suggest that efforts to understand and conserve key processes likely to influence the persistence of populations or metapopulations will be more successful than efforts to design minimal habitat reserves based on metapopulation theory. NOTE  相似文献   

8.
9.
  1. Local population characteristics and habitat connectivity both have important influences on metapopulation persistence; however, the relative importance of each can vary depending on the ecological context, making it difficult to apply general ‘rules-of-thumb’ for conservation actions. This is particularly true in dendritic networks, where habitat connections are constrained.
  2. By constructing a metapopulation model that specifically accounts for the unique characteristics and ecological system of a target species, the relative influence of local population characteristics and habitat connectivity on metapopulation persistence can be assessed more accurately.
  3. This modelling approach was used to improve conservation outcomes for the Canterbury mudfish (kо̄waro Neochanna burrowsius), a critically endangered and poorly understood species that is endemic to the Canterbury Plains of Aotearoa/New Zealand. A spatially structured metapopulation model of N. burrowsius was used to investigate the relationship between habitat patch connectivity, rate of population growth as limited by habitat quality (rconditional), and metapopulation persistence.
  4. N. burrowsius metapopulation persistence increased most strongly under increases in rconditional, but increases in habitat connectivity also had positive effects (94% metapopulation persistence for highly connected networks vs. 39% metapopulation persistence for poorly connected networks where rconditional = 1.3).
  5. Although rates of population growth were more influential than increases in habitat connectivity in this case study, both will be important to consider for effectively allocating conservation resources for metapopulations in dendritic networks, depending on what managers could effectively manipulate to enhance metapopulation persistence.
  相似文献   

10.
1. This paper sets out to: (1) review previous ecological studies and analyse recent trends of the Peruvian bay scallop fishery in order to better understand and to model the species’ temporal and spatial (meta) population dynamics along the South Pacific coast; (2) develop a fisheries model to protect the stock from overexploitation and optimize the annual yield of the pulse fishery in Independence Bay, the centre of the scallop diving fishery in Peru. 2. Natural stock fluctuations are very pronounced in this species and are positively correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During such an event, habitat conditions for the Peruvian bay scallop are improved either regionally or locally, such that populations proliferate and larval production and dispersal are greatly increased. Extinct beds and new habitats are recolonized during these periods (producing a strong pulse of metapopulation biomass), although most become extinct very shortly thereafter. 3. For management purposes, two considerations are fundamental: (1) heavy overfishing or extinction of the main scallop source populations would endanger the metapopulation as a whole; (2) rates of growth and survival greatly increase (and with them the potential yield of the scallop stock) locally over an El Niño cycle in a way that can be roughly estimated from past experience, including the most recent El Niño event (1997–1998). 4. We suggest a fisheries management regime capable of adapting to natural changes and propose a procedure for calculating both the optimal yield and the respective fishing effort under normal upwelling and El Niño scenarios, considering changes in the size at first capture (Lc) and fishery mortality (F). Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Extinction vulnerability in marine populations   总被引:16,自引:0,他引:16  
Human impacts on the world's oceans have been substantial, leading to concerns about the extinction of marine taxa. We have compiled 133 local, regional and global extinctions of marine populations. There is typically a 53‐year lag between the last sighting of an organism and the reported date of the extinction at whatever scale this has occurred. Most disappearances (80%) were detected using indirect historical comparative methods, which suggests that marine extinctions may have been underestimated because of low‐detection power. Exploitation caused most marine losses at various scales (55%), followed closely by habitat loss (37%), while the remainder were linked to invasive species, climate change, pollution and disease. Several perceptions concerning the vulnerability of marine organisms appear to be too general and insufficiently conservative. Marine species cannot be considered less vulnerable on the basis of biological attributes such as high fecundity or large‐scale dispersal characteristics. For commercially exploited species, it is often argued that economic extinction of exploited populations will occur before biological extinction, but this is not the case for non‐target species caught in multispecies fisheries or species with high commercial value, especially if this value increases as species become rare. The perceived high potential for recovery, high variability and low extinction vulnerability of fish populations have been invoked to avoid listing commercial species of fishes under international threat criteria. However, we need to learn more about recovery, which may be hampered by negative population growth at small population sizes (Allee effect or depensation) or ecosystem shifts, as well as about spatial dynamics and connectivity of subpopulations before we can truly understand the nature of responses to severe depletions. The evidence suggests that fish populations do not fluctuate more than those of mammals, birds and butterflies, and that fishes may exhibit vulnerability similar to mammals, birds and butterflies. There is an urgent need for improved methods of detecting marine extinctions at various spatial scales, and for predicting the vulnerability of species.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract Spatial management measures in the form of no‐take areas used in fisheries management can provide a buffer against catastrophic events. Dynamic area closures, like rotational closures, have also been used as a management tool particularly for sessile organisms. In this study, bioeconomic models are developed to investigate dynamic closure strategies for use as a management tool in the harvest of a metapopulation consisting of two local sub‐populations. The models provide an optimal strategy that maximises the sum of discounted net returns with a fixed harvest level [i.e. total allowable catch (TAC)] by opening and closing the sub‐populations of a metapopulation, subject to random negative catastrophic effects. Results showed the optimal policy for opening and closing a single exploited population depends on the degree and pattern of migration between it and other sub‐populations. When the harvest or TAC can be applied to either sub‐population, the optimal closure strategy depends on the abundance of both populations, crucially, even if they are biologically independent. The results provide insights into the management of stochastically fluctuating populations including more mobile species that are frequently not subject to no‐take controls.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract – Ecological models for stream fish range in scale from individual fish to entire populations. They have been used to assess habitat quality and to predict the demographic and genetic responses to management or disturbance. In this paper, we conduct the first comprehensive review and synthesis of the vast body of modelling literature on the brown trout, Salmo trutta L., with the aim of developing the framework for a demogenetic model, i.e., a model integrating both population dynamics and genetics. We use a bibliometric literature review to identify two main categories of models: population ecology (including population dynamics and population genetics) and population distribution (including habitat–hydraulic and spatial distribution). We assess how these models have previously been applied to stream fish, particularly brown trout, and how recent models have begun to integrate them to address two key management and conservation questions: (i) How can we predict fish population responses to management intervention? and (ii) How is the genetic structure of fish populations influenced by landscape characteristics? Because salmonid populations tend to show watershed scale variation in both demographic and genetic traits, we propose that models combining demographic, genetic and spatial data are promising tools for improving their management and conservation. We conclude with a framework for an individual‐based, spatially explicit demogenetic model that we will apply to stream‐dwelling brown trout populations in the near future.  相似文献   

14.
Methods of assessing extinction risk in marine fishes   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The decline and disappearance of species from large parts of their former geographical range has become an important issue in fisheries ecology. There is a need to identify which species are at risk of extinction. The available approaches have been subject to considerable debate – particularly when applied to commercially exploited species. Here we have compiled methods that have been used or may be used for assessing threat status of marine organisms. We organize the methods according to the availability of data on the natural history, ecology and population biology of species. There are three general approaches to inferring or assessing extinction risk: (i) correlative approaches based on knowledge of life histories and ecology; (ii) time‐series approaches that examine changes in abundance; and (iii) demographic approaches based on age‐ or stage‐based schedules of vital rates and fisheries reference points. Many methods are well suited to species that are highly catchable and/or have relatively low productivity, but theory is less well developed for assessing extinction risk in species exhibiting narrow geographical distributions or ecological specialization. There is considerable variation in both definitions of extinction risk and the precision and defensibility of the available risk assessment methods, so we suggest a two‐tiered approach for defining and assessing extinction risk. First, simple methods requiring a few easily estimated parameters are used to triage or rapidly assess large numbers of populations and species to identify potentially vulnerable populations or species. Second, the populations and species identified as vulnerable by this process can then be subject to more detailed and rigorous population analysis explicitly considering sources of error and uncertainty.  相似文献   

15.
16.
Characterizing population distribution and abundance over space and time is central to population ecology and conservation of natural populations. However, species distribution models and population dynamic models have rarely been integrated into a single modelling framework. Consequently, fine‐scale spatial heterogeneity is often ignored in resource assessments. We develop and test a novel spatiotemporal assessment framework to better address fine‐scale spatial heterogeneities based on theories of fish population dynamic and spatiotemporal statistics. The spatiotemporal model links species distribution and population dynamic models within a single statistical framework that is flexible enough to permit inference for each state variable through space and time. We illustrate the model with a simulation–estimation experiment tailored to two exploited marine species: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio, Oregoniidae) in the Eastern Bering Sea and northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis, Pandalidae) in the Gulf of Maine. These two species have different types of life history. We compare the spatiotemporal model with a spatially aggregated model and systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal model based on simulation experiments. We show that the spatiotemporal model can recover spatial patterns in population and exploitation pressure as well as provide unbiased estimates of spatially aggregated population quantities. The spatiotemporal model also implicitly accounts for individual movement rates and can outperform spatially aggregated models by accounting for time‐and‐size varying selectivity caused by spatial heterogeneity. We conclude that spatiotemporal modelling framework is a feasible and promising approach to address the spatial structure of natural resource populations, which is a major challenge in understanding population dynamics and conducting resource assessments and management.  相似文献   

17.
Detecting and analyzing patterns of distribution shifts and range expansion/contraction is important to understand population dynamics and changes in stock status. Here, we develop a spatio‐temporal model for yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis), which was fitted to bottom trawl survey biomass data collected in the Yellow Sea in the winter of 2001–2017. The model accounts for both spatial and spatio‐temporal structure and can potentially include the effects of surface temperature and of an annual index, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, represented using a recently developed spatially varying coefficient model. We selected a spatio‐temporal model with no covariates based on Akaike's information criterion. The center of gravity for yellow croaker was found to move northwest between 2001 and 2010, and then southwest over the period 2010–2017. These results reflected the predicted progressive disappearance of yellow croaker density hotspots (i.e., highest density areas) in the north and southeast areas of the Yellow Sea, which resulted in the central area of the Yellow Sea becoming the only yellow croaker density hotspot in 2017. This finding has important implications for fisheries management in the context of the China–South Korea fisheries agreement, as it indicates a measurable displacement of yellow croaker biomass toward China. The exclusion of covariates from the spatio‐temporal model was not expected a priori and may be due to the facts that environmental variations are not pronounced in winter in the Yellow Sea and that the representation of spatial and spatio‐temporal structure in spatio‐temporal models accounts for a large proportion of the variability in the data.  相似文献   

18.
Myths and moderation in marine ‘metapopulations’?   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
The metapopulation concept is appearing with increasing frequency in the marine population dynamics and genetics literature, though its applicability to marine systems remains an open question. Moreover, in recent years, the meaning of the term ‘metapopulation’ has become blurred, concomitant with its increasing use. In this paper, we summarize the concept of metapopulation dynamics and the associated theoretical assumptions. We call for a stricter definition and use of the term ‘metapopulation’, critically evaluate the applicability of metapopulation theory to marine population dynamics and its use in the related literature, and consider two published case‐studies that investigate metapopulation structuring in specific marine populations. Finally, we urge scientists to carefully articulate what is meant by the term ‘metapopulation’ and to use appropriate citations in the primary literature to circumvent the potential for nebulous (and possibly damaging) conclusions in the future.  相似文献   

19.
Spatially explicit fisheries simulation models for policy evaluation   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
This paper deals with the design of modelling tools suitable for investigating the consequences of alternative policies on the dynamics of resources and fisheries, such as the evaluation of marine protected areas (MPA). We first review the numerous models that have been developed for this purpose, and compare them from several standpoints: population modelling, exploitation modelling and management measure modelling. We then present a generic fisheries simulation model, Integration of Spatial Information for FISHeries simulation (ISIS‐Fish). This spatially explicit model allows quantitative policy screening for fisheries with mixed‐species harvests. It may be used to investigate the effects of combined management scenarios including a variety of policies: total allowable catch (TAC), licenses, gear restrictions, MPA, etc. Fisher's response to management may be accounted for by means of decision rules conditioned on population and exploitation parameters. An application to a simple example illustrates the relevance of this kind of tool for policy screening, particularly in the case of mixed fisheries. Finally, the reviewed models and ISIS‐Fish are discussed and confronted in the light of the underlying assumptions and model objectives. In the light of this discussion, we identify desirable features for fisheries simulation models aimed at policy evaluation, and particularly MPA evaluation.  相似文献   

20.
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