共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
内蒙古呼和浩特地区近40年来气候变化特征分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用1961年至2001年呼和浩特地区的气象资料,分析了40 a来气温、降水、日照的变化特征,结果表明:呼和浩特地区的季节和年平均气温以及最低、最高气温均呈明显上升趋势,且季节温度升高率:冬季>夏季>秋季>春季;降水总体呈下降趋势,下降幅度不是很大,各年际之间呈跳跃性摆动;年平均日照时数总体呈下降趋势且下降幅度很大,各年际之间呈现周期性变化;年潜在蒸散量(ET0)总体呈升高趋势,但季节变化有较大差别。研究结果充分表明,呼和浩特地区气候正在趋于暖干化,日照时数变短,这对本区发展农牧业具有很大的消极作用。 相似文献
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利用1957—2010年章丘气象资料,研究气温、降水的年代际、年际变化;结合病虫害、小麦发育期和产量资料等分析了自20世纪90年代以来随着气温显著升高、降水减少及年际变化增大对章丘农业生产造成的不利影响,最后提出了针对气候变化应采取的应对措施和建议。 相似文献
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Tierney JE Russell JM Huang Y Damsté JS Hopmans EC Cohen AS 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2008,322(5899):252-255
The processes that control climate in the tropics are poorly understood. We applied compound-specific hydrogen isotopes (deltaD) and the TEX(86) (tetraether index of 86 carbon atoms) temperature proxy to sediment cores from Lake Tanganyika to independently reconstruct precipitation and temperature variations during the past 60,000 years. Tanganyika temperatures follow Northern Hemisphere insolation and indicate that warming in tropical southeast Africa during the last glacial termination began to increase approximately 3000 years before atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. deltaD data show that this region experienced abrupt changes in hydrology coeval with orbital and millennial-scale events recorded in Northern Hemisphere monsoonal climate records. This implies that precipitation in tropical southeast Africa is more strongly controlled by changes in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and the winter Indian monsoon than by migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. 相似文献
4.
20世纪80年代中期全球变暖前后亚非夏季风特征分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
该文针对全球温度场在20世纪80年代全球明显的突然变暖事件,研究了变暖前后全球温度场和降水场的时空分布特征,以及相应季风环流圈的变化特征,并且与20世纪60年代全球变冷气候事件作了对比分析.结果表明,变暖后全球大范围增温,增温地区包括欧亚大陆大部、非洲地区大部和印度洋南部.与此同时,全球降水场也有明显的变化.1990—1995年与1980—1985年相比较,中国华北地区大部分地区、印度中南部和北非Sahel大部分地区夏季总降水量有所回升,而中国华北地区南部地区和印度北部地区降水有所减少.对比分析80年代变暖前后气候环流场,发现非洲夏季风在变暖后有所加强,印度夏季风有所减弱,东亚夏季风强度微弱加强.从海陆热力对比和华北和北非Sahel等地的夏季降水量的小波分析来看,60年代变冷气候事件以年代际信号为主,同位相叠加突出了年代际振荡的作用和强度;而80年代夏季降水量的各时间尺度年代际信号符号相反,相互抵消;与此同时,80年代年际时间尺度的信号较强,起主导作用.所以,80年代气候变暖事件与60年代气候变冷事件相比较,并不是单纯的气候年代际反位相振荡的结果,而是不同时间尺度信号相互作用下引起的气候不同的响应. 相似文献
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利用呼和浩特市近50年年平均气温及年降水量资料,应用Thornth waite Memorial模型,计算植物气候生产力(TSPV)对年均气温和降水量变化的响应情况,评估该地区植物气候生产力的年代际变化及未来气候变化情景下变化趋势。结果表明,近50年该区增温率为0.35℃/10a,降水呈弱减趋势,减少率为2.91 mm/10a;近50年呼和浩特市TSPV变化缓慢,表现为不显著的增加趋势;"冷湿型"、"暖干型"气候类型均出现TSPV正负距平现象,说明气温和降水不是该地区植物气候生产力变化的唯一限制因子;TSPV增减与年平均气温和降水变化同步,其中降水变化对TSPV的影响大于气温变化的影响。 相似文献
6.
安徽省21世纪气候变化预估 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
首先对国家气候中心下发的IPCC-AR4中全球气候模式数据进行了效果检验,检验结果表明该模式对安徽省气温的预估具有很好的可信度,对降水预估则还存在较大的不确定性。在此基础上分析了在温室气体中等排放情景A1B下安徽省21世纪的气候变化。结果表明,21世纪安徽省将显著的变暖、变湿。年平均气温上升速度约为每10年0.38℃,冬季上升最快,夏季略慢。空间上增温幅度从东南向西北逐渐增大。降水量则以每10年1.1%的速度增加,在世纪初年际波动较大,21世纪40年代到世纪末有显著增加趋势,冬季降水量增加较多,而秋季降水量偏少,汛期降水量有所增加,但占年降水量的比例变化不大。空间上北部降水比南部增加更为明显。气温和降水的变化对气温年较差、强降水和旱涝格局等极端事件也将产生较大的影响。 相似文献
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Peter M. VITOUSEK Xinping CHEN Zhenling CUI Xuejun LIU Pamela A. MATSON Ivan ORTIZ-MONASTERIO G. Philip ROBERTSON Fusuo ZHANG 《农业科学与工程前沿(英文版)》2022,9(3):457
8.
应用BIOME-BGC模型模拟估算了1974—2010年北京十三陵油松林的净初级生产力(NPP),并分析了不同CO2浓度和气候变化情景对NPP的影响。结果表明:模型模拟所得NPP与实际测定值相差8.9%,变化趋势基本一致;表现出低值高值的波浪形年际变化,年际变动率为30.69%;油松林模拟NPP与降水量呈现显著的线性相关关系(相关系数为0.85),与平均温度无线性相关关系(相关系数为-0.18);油松林NPP对单独的CO2的浓度加倍、降水增加表现出正向响应,而单独的温度增加不利于油松林NPP的积累;CO2浓度加倍、降水增加和温度增加三因子共同作用降低了油松林NPP,各因子之间表现出较强的交互作用。 相似文献
9.
Climate models with enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations have projected temperature increases of 2 degrees to 4 degrees C, winter precipitation increases of up to 15 percent, and summer precipitation decreases of 5 to 10 percent in the central United States by the year 2030. An analysis of the climate record over the past 95 years for this region was undertaken in order to evaluate these projections. Results indicate that temperature has increased and precipitation decreased both during winter and summer, and that the ratio of winter-to-summer precipitation has decreased. The signs of some trends are consistent with the projections whereas others are not, but none of the changes is statistically significant except for maximum and minimum temperatures, which were not among the parameters predicted by the models. Statistical models indicate that the greenhouse winter and summer precipitation signal could have been masked by natural climate variability, whereas the increase in the ratio of winter-to-summer precipitation and the higher rates of temperature change probably should have already been detected. If the models are correct it will likely take at least another 40 years before statistically significant precipitation changes are detected and another decade or two to detect the projected changes of temperature. 相似文献
10.
我国夏季降水类型初探（英文） 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
LI Luan 《（《农业科学与技术》）编辑部》2008,(1)
[Objective] Study on the spatial distribution of summer precipitation patterns and interannual and interdecadal variability.[Method] The summer precipitation patterns were obtained from standard field of summer precipitation data for 160 observation stations in China during 1951-2000 by the utilization of empirical orthogonal function(EOF),and characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variability were analyzed.[Result] The summer precipitation mainly distributes in eastern part of China;The 1st,2nd and 3rd EOF modes of spatial distribution are especially remarkable as well consistent with the results of previous reports about three rainfall patterns from analysis on the percentages of precipitation anomaly of summer.[Conclusion] There exists interannual and interdecadal variability for summer precipitation in China. 相似文献
11.
我国夏季降水类型初探 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
[目的]为研究我国夏季降水的空间分布类型及年际和年代际变化特点。[方法]利用经验正交函数分析,对1951~2000年我国160个观测站夏季降水量资料的标准场进行展开,得到我国夏季降水空间分布的不同类型,分析我国夏季降水的年际变化和年代际变化特点。[结果]我国夏季降水主要分布在东部;第一、二、三种EOF模态的空间型特别显著,与其他学者分析我国夏季降水距平百分率分布图得出的我国夏季降水3类雨型比较吻合;我国夏季降水不仅具有比较明显的年际变化,还具有年代际变化。[结论]该研究可为我国夏季降水类型的后续研究提供基础资料。 相似文献
12.
A detailed reconstruction of West African monsoon hydrology over the past 155,000 years suggests a close linkage to northern high-latitude climate oscillations. Ba/Ca ratio and oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera in a marine sediment core from the Gulf of Guinea, in the eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA), reveal centennial-scale variations of riverine freshwater input that are synchronous with northern high-latitude stadials and interstadials of the penultimate interglacial and the last deglaciation. EEA Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were decoupled from northern high-latitude millennial-scale fluctuation and primarily responded to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and low-latitude solar insolation. The onset of enhanced monsoon precipitation lags behind the changes in EEA SSTs by up to 7000 years during glacial-interglacial transitions. This study demonstrates that the stadial-interstadial and deglacial climate instability of the northern high latitudes exerts dominant control on the West African monsoon dynamics through an atmospheric linkage. 相似文献
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Interannual variability in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) was assessed with long-term (mean = 12 years) data from 11 Long Term Ecological Research sites across North America. The greatest interannual variability in ANPP occurred in grasslands and old fields, with forests the least variable. At a continental scale, ANPP was strongly correlated with annual precipitation. However, interannual variability in ANPP was not related to variability in precipitation. Instead, maximum variability in ANPP occurred in biomes where high potential growth rates of herbaceous vegetation were combined with moderate variability in precipitation. In the most dynamic biomes, ANPP responded more strongly to wet than to dry years. Recognition of the fourfold range in ANPP dynamics across biomes and of the factors that constrain this variability is critical for detecting the biotic impacts of global change phenomena. 相似文献
16.
近111年来东亚夏季风的变异及其与中国降水的关系 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
根据1899～2009年北半球月平均海平面气压场资料,计算近111年来东亚夏季风强度指数,分析了东亚夏季风的年代际及年际变化特征。结果表明,20世纪20年代东亚夏季风达最强,80年代中期以后东亚夏季风强度一直呈减弱趋势,其中21世纪初达最弱。Morlet小波分析发现,东亚夏季风年代际及年际变化中存在准10年和准2年显著性周期。我国东部降水的年际变化与东亚夏季风的强度变化密切相关,强（弱）东亚夏季风年份,长江中下游地区降水量比常年偏少（偏多）;而华北地区降水量比常年偏多（偏少）。东亚夏季风减弱是造成20世纪80年代中期以后华北地区干旱少雨,长江中下游地区洪涝多雨的一个重要原因。 相似文献
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利用四川143个气象站1961～2009年逐日降水资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了四川极端降水事件的变化趋势、突变特征和周期性特点,结果表明,近50年来,四川区域性暴雨次数、暴雨日数和极端降水日数呈略微减少趋势,气候倾向率分别为-0.36次/10a、-0.06d/10a、-0.1d/10a,极端降水强度、极端降水量占年降水量的比例呈微弱增加趋势,但极不显著,与我国极端降水趋多趋强的变化特征不一致。5个指数均有明显的25年左右的年代际振荡周期,年际振荡周期5～8年,5个指数都表明当前正处于极端降水事件的多发期。从空间格局看,四川极端降水事件从西向东呈＂增-减-增＂的分布特征,即四川盆地东部和川西南山地及川西北高原呈增多增强趋势,四川盆地西部、北部和南部则呈减少减弱趋势。大部分站点极端降水指数未发生突变,少数发生突变的站点其突变时间均发生在60年代初。 相似文献
18.
Indian Ocean climate and an absolute chronology over Dansgaard/Oeschger events 9 to 13 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Burns SJ Fleitmann D Matter A Kramers J Al-Subbary AA 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2003,301(5638):1365-1367
Oxygen-isotope ratios of a stalagmite from Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean provide a record of changes in monsoon precipitation and climate for the time period from 42 to 55 thousand years before the present. The pattern of precipitation bears a striking resemblance to the oxygen-isotope record from Greenland ice cores, with increased tropical precipitation associated with warm periods in the high northern latitudes. The largest change, at the onset of interstadial 12, occurred very rapidly, in about 25 years. The chronology of the events found in our record requires a reevaluation of previously published time scales for climate events during this period. 相似文献
19.
[目的]研究气候变化对左权核桃生长的影响。[方法]利用左权县1961～2010年气温、降水量、日照气象资料,分析气候变化对左权核桃生长发育的影响。[结果]近50年左权县气温年际变化呈上升趋势,冬季增暖尤其明显;降水量年际变化呈下降趋势,秋季减少最为显著;日照时数年际变化呈下降趋势。各气象因子发生变化最显著时段均出现在20世纪90年代。气候变暖,左权核桃种植适宜区域范围扩大,且引发核桃萌芽至开花物候期提前,遭遇低温冻害的几率和强度增加;降水量减少,大大增加了核桃遭受春旱、夏旱的可能性,对核桃正常生长和产量的稳定不利;日照时数减少,光照强度下降,影响核桃的品质和产量。[结论]该研究可为合理利用气候资源、最大程度地减轻气候条件对左权核桃生长发育不利的影响提供决策和服务依据。 相似文献
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A glacial varve chronology from New England spanning the 4000-year period from 17,500 to 13,500 calendar years before the present was analyzed for evidence of climate variability during the late Pleistocene. The chronology shows a distinct interannual (3 to 5 years) band of enhanced variability suggestive of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections into North America during the late Pleistocene, when the Laurentide ice sheet was near its maximum extent and climatic boundary conditions were different than those of today. This interannual variability largely disappears by the young end of the 4000-year chronology, with only the highest frequency components (roughly 3-year period) persisting. This record provides evidence of ENSO-like climate variability during near-peak glacial conditions. 相似文献