共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 328 毫秒
1.
Both C 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2007,315(5812):598; author reply 598
Jonzén et al. (Reports, 30 June 2006, p. 1959) proposed that the rapid advance of spring migration dates of long-distance migrants throughout Europe reflects an evolutionary response to climate change. However, most migrants should not advance their migration time because the phenology of their breeding grounds has not changed. It is more likely that migration speed has changed in response to improved environmental circumstances. 相似文献
2.
Bearhop S Fiedler W Furness RW Votier SC Waldron S Newton J Bowen GJ Berthold P Farnsworth K 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2005,310(5747):502-504
There have been numerous recent observations of changes in the behavior and dynamics of migratory bird populations, but the plasticity of the migratory trait and our inability to track small animals over large distances have hindered investigation of the mechanisms behind migratory change. We used habitat-specific stable isotope signatures to show that recently evolved allopatric wintering populations of European blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla pair assortatively on their sympatric breeding grounds. Birds wintering further north also produce larger clutches and fledge more young. These findings describe an important process in the evolution of migratory divides, new migration routes, and wintering quarters. Temporal segregation of breeding is a way in which subpopulations of vertebrates may become isolated in sympatry. 相似文献
3.
Thomas W. Sappington 《农业科学学报》2018,17(7):1485-1505
Insect migratory flight differs fundamentally from most other kinds of flight behavior, in that it is non-appetitive. The adult is not searching for anything, and migratory flight is not terminated by encounters with potential resources. Many insect pests of agricultural crops are long-distance migrants, moving from lower latitudes where they overwinter to higher latitudes in the spring to exploit superabundant, but seasonally ephemeral, host crops. The migratory nature of these pests is somewhat easy to recognize because of their sudden appearance in areas where they had been absent only a day or two earlier. Many other serious pests survive hostile winter conditions by diapausing, and therefore do not require migration to move between overwintering and breeding ranges. Yet there is evidence of migratory behavior engaged in by several pest species that inhabit high latitudes year-round. In these cases, the consequences of migratory flight are not immediately noticeable at the population level, because migration takes place for the most part within their larger year-round distribution. Nevertheless, the potential population-level consequences can be quite important in the contexts of pest management and insect resistance management. As a case study, I review the evidence for migratory flight behavior by individual European corn borer adults, and discuss the importance of understanding it. The kind of migratory behavior posited for pest species inhabiting a permanent distribution may be more common than we realize. 相似文献
4.
Alsos IG Eidesen PB Ehrich D Skrede I Westergaard K Jacobsen GH Landvik JY Taberlet P Brochmann C 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2007,316(5831):1606-1609
The ability of species to track their ecological niche after climate change is a major source of uncertainty in predicting their future distribution. By analyzing DNA fingerprinting (amplified fragment-length polymorphism) of nine plant species, we show that long-distance colonization of a remote arctic archipelago, Svalbard, has occurred repeatedly and from several source regions. Propagules are likely carried by wind and drifting sea ice. The genetic effect of restricted colonization was strongly correlated with the temperature requirements of the species, indicating that establishment limits distribution more than dispersal. Thus, it may be appropriate to assume unlimited dispersal when predicting long-term range shifts in the Arctic. 相似文献
5.
Burrows MT Schoeman DS Buckley LB Moore P Poloczanska ES Brander KM Brown C Bruno JF Duarte CM Halpern BS Holding J Kappel CV Kiessling W O'Connor MI Pandolfi JM Parmesan C Schwing FB Sydeman WJ Richardson AJ 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2011,334(6056):652-655
Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts. 相似文献
6.
宁夏中部干旱带气候变化及其对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据宁夏中部干旱带盐池县、同心县和海原县气象站1961—2011年平均气温和降水量资料,分析该区域气候变化特征和规律,应用Miami和Thornthwaite Memorial模型探讨该区域春玉米生产潜力及其变化特征,并深入研究气候变化对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明:1)研究区气候呈气温明显升高、降水波动减少的"暖干型"趋势变化。2)春玉米温度生产潜力呈逐年增加,降水和气候生产潜力呈波动中减少的趋势。3)研究区春玉米气候生产潜力平均值为5 037kg/(hm2·年),气候生产潜力与年平均降水量有着极其显著的线性相关,与年平均气温没有明显的线性相关,表明降水条件是制约研究区春玉米气候生产潜力的关键因子。未来气候变化显著影响着春玉米气候生产潜力,其中降水量变化对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响远大于气温变化的影响,降水的多少及变率对其限制作用将更明显。因此,应大力发展农业技术,合理安排农作物布局来适应气候变化,以保证春玉米产量和品质。 相似文献
7.
In eastern Africa the altitude of the boundary between montane forest and lowland savanna grassland changed substantially in response to climate change during the later Holocene, but this is not clearly reflected in regional pollen records. The carbon-13 to carbon-12 ratios of tropical grasses are higher than those of most other plants, and this difference is preserved in soil organic carbon stable isotope ratios. Soil organic matter (13)C/(12)C ratios in profiles along an altitude transect in the central Rift Valley of Kenya suggest that the forest-savanna boundary advanced more than 300 meters in altitude. This could have implications for understanding the effects of climate change on the configuration of floral zones, prehistoric hunter-gatherer land-use patterns, and the timing of the advent of Neolithic food production. 相似文献
8.
基于劳动力转移模式分化以及不同农作物机械化程度存在差异的事实,将劳动力转移分为本地转移和异地转移,利用江汉平原农户调查数据和DEA-Tobit方法,实证检验不同模式劳动力转移对农户水稻和棉花生产技术效率的影响。结果表明:不同模式劳动力转移对农业生产技术效率的影响存在差异,且这种影响因作物不同而异。具体而言,本地转移和异地转移均对样本农户水稻生产技术效率产生了显著的正向作用;异地转移对样本农户棉花生产技术效率造成了显著的负向影响,而本地转移的正向影响不显著。提高农户耕地经营规模,提高生产机械化水平以及加强农业技术培训等均能有效提高农户的农业生产技术效率。 相似文献
9.
非自愿迁移人口生计转型困境及发展能力提高策略研究 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
非自愿迁移人口生计转型困境及如何提高其可持续发展能力已成为学术界关注的焦点。本文以生态移民为研究对象,借鉴目前较为成熟的农户可持续生计分析框架,利用内蒙古达茂旗7个牧区生态移民安置区的移民调查数据,运用生态移民认知方法对非自愿迁移人口生计转型困境进行了实证分析,探讨了生态移民对外界给予其帮助的期望。结果表明,生态移民面临着资金短缺、非农就业困难、收入来源、农业生产困难、生活困难等生计困境类型。生态移民提出了收入来源、非农工作、农业生产、生活开支、补贴中断等多种未来担忧的问题以及期望获得诸如草场补贴提高、非农工作搜索、畜牧业生产、贷款、继续回牧区放牧等政府的帮助。阐明了从宏观层面重视生态移民创业服务体系的构建、资源依赖型生计模式创新、生计多样化以及非农就业服务机制构建等提高生态移民生计转型能力。 相似文献
10.
Dingle H 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》1972,175(4028):1327-1335
Physiological and ecological results from a variety of species are consistent with what seem to be valid general statements concerning insect migration. These are as follows: (i)During migration locomotory functions are enhanced and vegetative functions such as feeding and reproduction are suppressed. (ii) Migration usually occurs prereproductively in the life of the adult insect (the oogenesis-flight syndrome). (iii)Since migrant individuals are usually prereproductive, their reproductive values, and hence colonizing abilities, are at or near maximum. (iv) Migrants usually reside in temporary habitats. (v)Migrants have a high potential for population increase, r, which is also advantageous for colonizers. (vi)Both the physiological and ecological parameters of migration are modifiable by environmental factors (that is, phenotypically modifiable)to suit the prevailing conditions. Taken together, these criteria establish a comprehensive theory and adumbrate the basic strategy for migrant insects. This basic strategy is modified to suit the ecological requirements of individual species. Comparative studies of these modifications are of considerable theoretical and practical interest, the more so since most economically important insects are migrants. No satisfactory general statements can as yet be made with respect to the genotype and migration. Certainly we expect colonizing populiations to possess genotypes favoring a high r, but genotypic variation in r depends on the heritabilities of life table statistics, and such measurements are yet to be made (10, 53). The fact that flight duration can be increased by appropriate selection in Oncopeltus fasciatus, and the demonstration of additive genetic variance for this trait in Lygaeus kalmii, suggest that heritability studies of migratory behavior would also be worth pursuing. Most interesting of course, will be possible genetic correlations between migration and life history parameters. Also, migration often transports genotypes across long distances with considerable mixing of populations. An understanding of its operation therefore carries with it implications for population genetics, zoogeography, and evolutionary theory. Finally, at least parts of the above general theory would seem to be applicable to forms other than insects. Bird and insect migrations, for example, are in many respects ecologically and physiologically similar. Birds, like insects, emphasize locomotory. as opposed to vegetative functions during long-distance flight; the well-known Zugenruhe or migratory restlessness is a case in point. Further, many birds migrateat nigt at a time when they would ordinarily roost(vegetative activity). Because their life spans exceed single seasons, bird migrants are not prereproductive in the same sense that insect migrants are, and hence reproductive values do not have the same meaning(but note that some insects are also interreproductive migrants). The situaion is complicated further by the fact that in many birds adult survivorship is virtually independent of age so that colonizing ability tends to be also (10, 54). Nevertheless, birds arrive on their nesting grounds in reproductive condition with the result that migration is a colonizing episode. It is also phenotypically modifiable by environmental factors, some of which, for example, photoperiod, influence insects as well (55). The similarities between birds and insects thus seem sufficient to indicate, at least provisionally, that the theory developed for insects applies also to birds with appropriate modifications for longer life span and more complex social behavior; comparisons between insects and fish (56) lead to the same conclusion. In birds especially, and also in other forms, various functions accessory to migration such as reproductive endocrinology, energy budgets, and orientation mechanisms have been studied extensively (55, 56). But there is need in vertebrates for more data andtheoy on the ecology and physiology of migratory behavior per se in order tobetter understand its evolution and its role in ecosystem function (5, 57). Migration in any animal cannot be understood until viewed in its entirety as a physiological, behavioral, and ecological syndrome. 相似文献
11.
Searle IR Men AE Laniya TS Buzas DM Iturbe-Ormaetxe I Carroll BJ Gresshoff PM 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2003,299(5603):109-112
Proliferation of legume nodule primordia is controlled by shoot-root signaling known as autoregulation of nodulation (AON). Mutants defective in AON show supernodulation and increased numbers of lateral roots. Here, we demonstrate that AON in soybean is controlled by the receptor-like protein kinase GmNARK (Glycine max nodule autoregulation receptor kinase), similar to Arabidopsis CLAVATA1 (CLV1). Whereas CLV1 functions in a protein complex controlling stem cell proliferation by short-distance signaling in shoot apices, GmNARK expression in the leaf has a major role in long-distance communication with nodule and lateral root primordia. 相似文献
12.
在中国油气管道安全防护日益严峻的形势下,长输管道应急事故救援力量难以开展真实工况训练。设计了由短距离装配式钢质管道与调节阀组成的长输管道事故模拟实装训练辅助装置,并进行相应的现场试验。结果表明:调节阀在某一特定开度下的实际压差流量曲线与相应长度的同管径管道的阻力特性基本一致,验证了选用调节阀模拟长距离管道水力摩阻的可行性。该装置通过敷设短距离管道,实现了在有限场地条件下与实际管道一致的上下游泵站工况,起到以短代长、减小训练规模、降低管道敷设工作量的作用,并能够更加准确地模拟管道泄漏、堵塞及阀门误动作等事故工况,提高了管道应急事故救援人员的训练水平。 相似文献
13.
秦岭不同年龄太白红杉径向生长对气候因子的响应 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
秦岭地区是我国最为典型的太白红杉温带针叶林分布区,也是受全球气候变化影响最为显著的地区之一。已有的研究已经显示树木的生理特征会随着树木年龄发生变化,这可能会造成与树木生长有关的气候信号随时间改变。为探索该区不同年龄太白红杉树木径向生长对气候变化的响应差异,本研究运用树木年轮气候学传统方法,研究了不同年龄太白红杉年表特征及其与气候因子的关系,以期揭示年龄因素对年表的潜在影响。结果表明:1)不同年龄太白红杉径向生长对气候因子的响应存在差异,老龄组太白红杉年表较中、低龄组年表对气候因子的响应更加敏感,更适合用于年轮气候学研究;2)响应函数分析表明,老龄组太白红杉年表对生长季早期和春季温度以及春季降水更加敏感,而幼龄组太白红杉年表与各月气候变量均未表现出显著相关关系。综上所述,太白红杉年轮宽度与气候变化的响应模式受年龄因素影响,高龄年轮年表对气候响应的敏感性更高,包含更多的气候信息。该研究结果为全球变暖背景下秦岭高山林线太白红杉林的合理经营管理及该区域气候重建提供了一定的基础数据。 相似文献
14.
Saether BE 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2000,288(5473):1975-1976
There has been increasing concern over the decline in many migratory bird species. As Saether discusses in his Perspective, evidence is accumulating (Sillett et al.) that climate change resulting from the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation affects both the survival rate of adult birds at tropical wintering sites and their reproductive rate at summer breeding grounds in the Northern Hemisphere. 相似文献
15.
Jennerjahn TC Ittekkot V Arz HW Behling H Pätzold J Wefer G 《Science (New York, N.Y.)》2004,306(5705):2236-2239
Tropical regions have been reported to play a key role in climate dynamics. To date, however, there are uncertainties in the timing and the amplitude of the response of tropical ecosystems to millennial-scale climate change. We present evidence of an asynchrony between terrestrial and marine signals of climate change during Heinrich events preserved in marine sediment cores from the Brazilian continental margin. The inferred time lag of about 1000 to 2000 years is much larger than the ecological response to recent climate change and appears to be related to the nature of hydrological changes. 相似文献
16.
利用10和22℃2个界限温度,采用5 d滑动平均温度的方法来计算春、夏、秋、冬四季开始时间和持续长短。结果表明,河南冬季最长,其次是夏季,秋季和春季长度很相近,秋季略短;各季节的开始时间发生了变化,春、秋季开始时间提前,夏、冬季开始时间推后,春、夏、秋、冬季开始时间变化气候倾向率分别为-1.804、0.843、-0.947、0.834 d/10a;各季节长短也发生了变化,春、秋季变长,夏、冬季缩短,春、夏、秋、冬季长短变化气候倾向率分别为2.667、-1.767、1.723、-2.820 d/10a。 相似文献
17.
双台河口保护区是世界濒危鸟类丹顶鹤大陆种群西线群体不同生活史阶段的重要栖息地。2008-2010年3-4月,采用定点观察法、二维坐标法、方差分析、因子分析等方法对保护区内春迁期丹顶鹤觅食栖息地的多尺度选择进行了监测分析。研究结果表明：(1)春迁期,该保护区丹顶鹤觅食栖息地选择包括2个尺度3个选择,即大生境尺度内觅食生境类型选择和小生境尺度内觅食区选择、觅食微生境选择;(2)觅食生境类型偏好选择芦苇沼泽(90.00%),也偶选玉米地、泥滩、草甸等生境;(3)觅食区选择通过宏生境因子和干扰因子来判定,宏生境因子包括明水面、堤坝和火烧地,距离均在30m以内;干扰因子包括居民区和油田等强干扰因子和道路等弱干扰因子,均采取远离的方式进行回避,居民区保持在1km以上,油田保持在2km以上,道路保持在300-500m;(4)觅食微生境选择通过微生境因子来判定,包括植被高度、植被密度、植被直径等,选择盖度小(<5%)且植被高度小于喙长的区域觅食。 相似文献
18.
利用CMIP5多模式集合模拟气候变化对中国小麦产量的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
【目的】利用最新的国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）中30个全球大气-海洋耦合模式（AOGCMs）在典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下的气候预估结果,基于集合模拟的方法评估气候变化对中国未来小麦产量的影响。【方法】气候变化对农业的影响评估通常基于未来逐日的气象资料,然而AOGCMs模拟的逐日数据存在较大的不确定性。利用“虚拟气候变暖”（PGW）的方法,将CMIP5模式预估的未来气候变化的信号与当前气候的逐日站点观测资料相结合,得到未来气候预估的逐日数据集合。结合作物过程模型CERES-Wheat,利用集合模拟的方法,以概率的形式量化表述气候变化对中国小麦产量影响的不确定性。【结果】未来中国冬春小麦代表站在其小麦生育期内的平均气温均有升高。预估21世纪末期,冬小麦代表站平均增温2.7-2.9℃,春小麦代表站平均增温3.0-3.3℃。RCP8.5情景比RCP2.6情景增温显著。预估未来冬、春小麦在其生育期内的降水量普遍增加,并随着排放量的增长,降水量表现出逐渐增多的趋势。在仅改变未来气候变化的条件下,冬、春小麦的灌溉小麦单产相对于1996-2005年普遍减产,并且随着气候变化,灌溉小麦的减产概率上升。春小麦代表站在灌溉条件下小麦减产的程度比冬小麦代表站更显著。预估到21世纪末期,冬小麦代表站在RCP2.6情景下减产2%左右,在RCP4.5情景下减产6%左右,在RCP8.5情景下减产9%左右,减产概率超过85%。预估春小麦代表站在RCP2.6情景下减产5%,在RCP4.5情景下减产8%以上,在RCP8.5情景下减产15%以上,减产概率超过90%。在雨养条件下,冬小麦代表站的小麦单产相较于1996-2005年显著增产。预估到21世纪末期,冬小麦代表站在RCP2.6情景下增产21%以上,在RCP4.5情景下增产22%以上,在RCP8.5情景下增产25%以上,增产概率超过90%。【结论】利用PGW方法获得未来气候预估的逐日数据集合有效的保留了当前气候的天气信息,尤其是极端天气事件的信息。利用集合模拟的方法评估未来气候在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下对中国小麦单产的影响,表明在灌溉条件下,随着排放量的增加,气候变化导致中国小麦单产减产的概率逐渐上升。雨养小麦单产集合的不确定性较灌溉条件大。 相似文献
19.
Westerly winds in the Southern Ocean have increased in intensity and moved poleward. Using long-term demographic and foraging records, we show that foraging range in wandering albatrosses has shifted poleward in conjunction with these changes in wind pattern, while their rates of travel and flight speeds have increased. Consequently, the duration of foraging trips has decreased, breeding success has improved, and birds have increased in mass by more than 1 kilogram. These positive consequences of climate change may be temporary if patterns of wind in the southern westerlies follow predicted climate change scenarios. This study stresses the importance of foraging performance as the key link between environmental changes and population processes. 相似文献
20.
Biofuels have transitioned from a technology expected to deliver numerous benefits to a highly contested socio-technical solution. Initial hopes about their potential to mitigate climate change and to deliver energy security benefits and rural development, particularly in the Global South, have unravelled in the face of numerous controversies. In recognition of the negative externalities associated with biofuels, the European Union developed sustainability criteria which are enforced by certification schemes. This paper draws on the literature on stewardship to analyse the outcomes of these schemes in two countries: the UK and Guatemala. It explores two key issues: first, how has European Union biofuels policy shaped biofuel industries in the UK and Guatemala? And second, what are the implications for sustainable land stewardship? By drawing attention to the outcomes of European demand for biofuels, we raise questions about the ability of European policy to drive sustainable land practices in these two cases. The paper concludes that, rather than promoting stewardship, the current governance framework effectively rubberstamps existing agricultural systems and serves to further embed existing inequalities. 相似文献