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1.
Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem‐mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010–2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long‐term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long‐term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long‐term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long‐term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.  相似文献   

2.
The California Current System (CCS) is an eastern boundary current system with strong biological productivity largely due to seasonal wind‐driven upwelling and transport of the California Current (CC). Two independent, yet complementary time series, CalCOFI ichthyoplankton surveys and sampling of southern California power plant cooling‐water intakes, have indicated that an assemblage of predominantly cool‐water affinity fishes spanning nearshore to oceanic environments in the southern CCS has declined dramatically from the 1970s to the 2000s. We examined potential oceanographic drivers behind this decline both within and north of the CalCOFI survey area in order to capture upstream processes as well. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses using output from a data‐assimilative regional ocean model revealed significant relationships between the fish time series and spatial patterns of upwelling, upper ocean heat content and eddy kinetic energy in the CCS. Correlation and linear regression analyses indicated that the declining trend in fish abundance was correlated with a suite of factors: reduced offshore and increased inshore upwelling; a long term warming trend combined with more recent interannual variability in ocean temperature; weaker eddy kinetic energy north of Point Conception (35°N), potentially indicating reduced transport of the California Current (CC); increased influence of the California Undercurrent (CUC); and a decline in zooplankton displacement volume across the southern CCS. Understanding how changes in oceanography affect fish populations will offer insights into managing fisheries in a changing climate.  相似文献   

3.

4.
A simple, non‐lethal method for assigning conservation status is proposed based on three conservation classes (favourable, unfavourable/inadequate and unfavourable/bad) to fish species based on their natural population variability. To demonstrate this approach, conservation classes were allocated to three native fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta L., northern Iberian chub Squalius carolitertii (Doadrio), and northern straight‐mouth nase, Pseudochondrostoma duriense (Coelho) based on basic population variables (density and biomass) using a 9‐year dataset (2004–2012) from 15 different sampling sites in Spain. The classification of the population variables into conservation classes was made using previously described nonparametric methods and percentiles categorisation, and the current conservation status of the studied species was established. Temporal trend analyses showed that S. carolitertii experienced a progressive significant decrease during the study period, whereas both S. trutta and P. duriense exhibited weak increases in density. The study exemplifies the need to quantify the natural variability of fish resources to reveal their current conservation status and to determine whether short‐term and long‐term management actions are needed to rehabilitate native fish assemblages. The proposed approach could easily be employed by fisheries managers to monitor the conservational status of other native species.  相似文献   

5.
The ocean is affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors including climate change, the effects of which are already evident in many ocean ecosystems. The ABACuS v2 end‐to‐end model together with climate projections from the NEMO‐MEDUSA 2.0 model were used to evaluate the effects of fishing, warming and horizontal and vertical mixing on the southern Benguela upwelling system. Of the drivers examined in this study, warming had the greatest effect on species biomass, with mainly negative effects. The magnitude of the impacts of warming intensified from the RCP 2.6 to the 8.5 emission scenario. Fishing negatively affected demersal and large pelagic fish, which in turn resulted in a biomass increase of forage fish due to a decrease in predation pressure. Water mixing was found to have minor indirect effects on zooplankton biomass and fish. The responses of species and species groups to the combined effects of fishing and warming were approximately equally divided between additive, synergistic and antagonistic. Interpretation of our model results suggests that the southern Benguela system is likely to be affected by climate change, including substantial changes in the abundance of some species important to the region's fisheries. Future planning for fisheries needs to take this into account, including through management that strives to maintain the resilience of key species and the system as a whole. In line with previous studies on the southern Benguela, the results reinforce the importance of including consideration of the indirect and combined impacts of climate change and fishing in management and planning.  相似文献   

6.
Interannual variability of the ecosystem of the Kii Channel, productive shelf water on the Pacific side of south‐western Japan, was analysed based on physicochemical environmental variables and abundance of major zooplankton taxa collected monthly for 12 yr from 1987 to 1999. The Kii Channel experienced both short‐term (i.e. 3–4 yr) cyclical changes and a long‐term (i.e. decadal) environmental trend. The short‐term variability was primarily associated with year‐to‐year differences in intrusion of subsurface, cold nutrient‐rich water along the bottom of the Kii Channel from the Pacific Ocean. When this bottom intrusion was intense, the Kii Channel experienced a cold, new production‐dominated ecosystem. The bottom intrusion, however, has become less intense in recent years, because of the closer proximity of the Kuroshio flow axis to the Kii Channel. Hence, there was a consistent trend towards warming and a regenerated production‐dominated ecosystem. In accordance with such environmental changes, the zooplankton community shifted towards more oceanic conditions; major herbivorous calanoids (i.e. Calanus sinicus, Paracalanus parvus (s.l.), Clausocalanus spp. and Acartia omorii) decreased, while carnivores (i.e. hydromedusae and Sagitta spp.) increased. The amount of total fish catch also decreased, while the catch of subtropical species increased. These findings lead us to conclude that the bottom intrusion from the Pacific Ocean plays a key role in determining the biological production in the Kii Channel.  相似文献   

7.
Fishery collapses cause substantial economic and ecological harm, but common management actions often fail to prevent overfishing. Minimum length limits are perhaps the most common fishing regulation used in both commercial and recreational fisheries, but their conservation benefits can be influenced by discard mortality of fish caught and released below the legal length. We constructed a computer model to evaluate how discard mortality could influence the conservation utility of minimum length regulations. We evaluated policy performance across two disparate fish life‐history types: short‐lived high‐productivity (SLHP) and long‐lived low‐productivity (LLLP) species. For the life‐history types, fishing mortality rates and minimum length limits that we examined, length limits alone generally failed to achieve sustainability when discard mortality rate exceeded about 0.2 for SLHP species and 0.05 for LLLP species. At these levels of discard mortality, reductions in overall fishing mortality (e.g. lower fishing effort) were required to prevent recruitment overfishing if fishing mortality was high. Similarly, relatively low discard mortality rates (>0.05) rendered maximum yield unobtainable and caused a substantial shift in the shape of the yield response surfaces. An analysis of fishery efficiency showed that length limits caused the simulated fisheries to be much less efficient, potentially exposing the target species and ecosystem to increased negative effects of the fishing process. Our findings suggest that for overexploited fisheries with moderate‐to‐high discard mortality rates, reductions in fishing mortality will be required to meet management goals. Resource managers should carefully consider impacts of cryptic mortality sources (e.g. discard mortality) on fishery sustainability, especially in recreational fisheries where release rates are high and effort is increasing in many areas of the world.  相似文献   

8.
The connection of climate variability with anchovy spawning and recruitment in the Black Sea in particular, and other ecosystems in general, was studied using a two‐way coupled lower trophic level and anchovy bioenergetics model. Climate variability was represented by a 50‐yr time series of daily temperature and vertical mixing rates with stochastic variations. Temperature was found to be the dominant factor influencing early life stages and hence population dynamics of Black Sea anchovy as marked by a high correlation of anchovy egg production and recruitment success in response to changes in temperature. Each decrease of 2°C in summer mean temperatures resulted in a delay in the timing of egg production of between 12 and 19 days. Water temperatures in the spawning season had a greater influence than the number of available spawning females on the intensity of egg production. Anchovy recruitment was similarly influenced by temperature, with decreased temperatures resulting in a significant delay in the onset of peak recruitment during the fall by 21–38 days. Also, recruitment numbers in December decreased by about 20% with decreasing temperatures. The impact of temperature on production was slightly diminished by the impact of vertical mixing. The strong linkage of climate variability with anchovy spawning and recruitment has an important prediction potential for short‐term anchovy stock estimations, which may serve fisheries management purposes.  相似文献   

9.
The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate‐induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate‐related local extinctions were expected in the south‐eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi‐SDM, multi‐GCM, multi‐RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.  相似文献   

10.
Local ecological knowledge (LEK) can offer insights into fisheries management by describing long‐term changes that are difficult to unravel in data‐poor river‐floodplain fisheries. LEK is derived from complex interactions between fishers’ observations of environmental change and their institutional capacities to manage fisheries. Hence, it is important to understand where and how LEK and formal scientific studies on fish species’ decline could complement each other. In this paper, the causes of decline of 58 fish and two shrimp taxa were identified from LEK data (1999–2019) obtained from river–floodplain fisheries of the Gangetic plains (Bihar, India). Qualitative analyses of LEK were used to generate species‐specific hypotheses and historical insights on their declines. Destructive fishing, overfishing and the Farakka barrage were cited by fishers as the major causes of declines. Potential reasons for these perceptions were explored in relation to fishers’ experiences of conflicts in the region over fishing rights and access.  相似文献   

11.
Infectious pathogens figure prominently among those factors threatening marine wildlife. Mass mortality events caused by pathogens can fundamentally alter the structure of wild fish stocks and depress recruitment rates and yield. In the most severe instances, this can precipitate stock collapses resulting in dramatic economic losses to once valuable commercial fisheries. An outbreak of a herpes‐like virus among commercially fished abalone populations in the south‐west fishery of Victoria, Australia, during 2006–2007, has been associated with high mortality rates among all cohorts. Long‐term records from fishery‐independent surveys of blacklip abalone Haliotis rubra (Leach) enabled abundance from pre‐ and post‐viral periods to be analysed to estimate stock density and biomass. The spatial distribution of abundance in relation to physical habitat variables derived from high‐resolution bathymetric LiDAR data was investigated. Significant differences were observed in both measures between pre‐ and post‐viral periods. Although there was some limited evidence of gradual stock improvement in recent years, disease‐affected reefs have remained below productivity rates prior to the disease outbreak suggesting a reduction in larval availability or settlement success. This was corroborated by trends in sublegal sized blacklip abalone abundance that has yet to show substantial recovery post‐disease. Abundance data were modelled as a function of habitat variables using a generalised additive model (GAM) and indicated that high abundance was associated with complex reef structures of coastal waters (<15 m). This study highlights the importance of long‐term surveys to understand abalone recovery following mass mortality and the links between stock abundance and seafloor variability.  相似文献   

12.
Marine social–ecological systems consist of interactive ecological and human social elements so that changes in ecological systems affect fishing‐dependent societies and vice versa. This study compares the responses of marine ecological and fishing‐dependent systems to environmental change and the impacts of globalization, using four case‐studies: NE Atlantic (Barents Sea), NW Atlantic (Newfoundland), SE Atlantic (Namibia) and the equatorial Atlantic (Ghana). Marine ecological systems cope with short‐time changes by altering migration and distribution patterns, changing species composition, and changing diets and growth rates; over the longer term, adaptive changes lead to increased turn‐over rates and changes in the structure and function of the system. Fishing communities cope with short‐term change through intensification and diversification of fishing, migration and ‘riding out the storm’. Over the longer term, adaptive changes in policy and fisheries governance can interact with social–ecological change to focus on new fisheries, economic diversification, re‐training, out‐migration and community closures. Marine social–ecological systems can ultimately possess rapid adaptive capacity in their ecological components, but reduced adaptive capacity in society. Maintaining the diversity of response capabilities on short and longer time scales, among both ecological and human fishing systems, should be a key policy objective. The challenge is to develop robust governance approaches for coupled marine social–ecological systems that can respond to short‐ and long‐term consequences of global change.  相似文献   

13.
Well‐managed fisheries support healthy ocean ecosystems, coastal livelihoods and food security for millions of people. However, many communities lack the resources to implement effective fisheries management. No‐take marine reserves are a ubiquitous management intervention that provide conservation benefits and under certain circumstances can provide long‐term fishery benefits as a result of larval and adult emigration from reserve boundaries. But, support for marine reserves by fishery participants is often limited due to short‐term economic impacts resulting from foregone yields. In this study, we examine the timing and magnitude of economic impacts of marine reserves by utilizing a novel metric that discounts future economic benefits of enhanced productivity resulting from reserve protection. We ask under what circumstances long‐term benefits outweigh short‐term impacts of marine reserve implementation. We simulate fisheries for six species commonly caught in coastal environments and show that while conservation benefits accrue rapidly, more than a decade is often required to provide net fisheries benefits, even under circumstances favourable for reserves. We explore a suite of strategies for mitigating these short‐term economic losses, including flexible reserve designs, loans and enhanced ex‐vessel revenues. Results indicate that market‐based incentives show promise to offset short‐term economic losses. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding and communicating likely outcomes from marine reserve implementation and the need to engage supply chain actors to incentivize marine conservation that minimizes impacts to fishermen.  相似文献   

14.
New Zealand has led the world in restoration of marine fisheries since the introduction of the Quota Management System in 1986, but challenges remain in minimizing the ecosystem‐level effects of industrialized fishing. We analysed existing long‐term fisheries data sets from 1931 to 2015 in New Zealand to resolve trends in important ecological properties of major exploited fish communities. Increases in community dissimilarities of catch composition in 1931 and 1972, followed by increasing total landings, highlight major expansions of fishing grounds and exploited species during these periods. Mirroring global patterns, the remarkable rise in fishing power, demand and generation of new markets in New Zealand have all contributed to this expansion. Marine Trophic Indices (MTIs) of landings have decreased together with total catch after the year 2000, reflecting smaller catches with a higher composition of lower trophic‐level species in recent years. Differences in relative abundance of species estimated between fisheries‐dependent and fisheries‐independent data were observed, where high‐value species displayed better agreement in relative abundance between data sets. Despite being under a Quota Management System, temporal development of MTI values relative to the timing of industrial expansion of fisheries was remarkably similar to those observed in the North Sea and Brazil, with a single expansion and decline. MTI values presented better long‐term stability in the US fisheries analysed. Analysis of long‐term data and the development of well‐resolved ecological baselines will be the first step towards applying EBM to New Zealand fisheries, in keeping with global trends in fisheries management.  相似文献   

15.
The assumption that animals released from fishing gears survive has frequently been scrutinized by researchers in recent years. Mortality estimates from these research efforts can be incorporated into management models to ensure the sustainability of fisheries and the conservation of threatened species. Post‐release mortality estimates are typically made by holding the catch in a tank, pen or cage for short‐term monitoring (e.g. 48 h). These estimates may be inaccurate in some cases because they fail to integrate the challenges of the wild environment. Most obvious among these challenges is predator evasion. Stress and injury from a capture experience can temporarily impair physiological capacity and alter behaviour in released animals, a period during which predation risk is likely elevated. In large‐scale commercial fisheries, predators have adapted their behaviour to capitalize on impaired fishes being discarded, while in recreational catch‐and‐release fisheries, exercise and air exposure can similarly impede the capacity for released fish to evade opportunistic predators. Owing to the indirect and often cryptic nature of this source of mortality, very few studies have attempted to document it. A survey of the literature demonstrated that <2% of the papers in the combined realms of bycatch and catch‐and‐release have directly addressed or considered post‐release predation. Future research should combine field telemetry and laboratory studies using both natural and simulated predation encounters and incorporate physiological and behavioural endpoints. Quite simply, predation is an understudied and underappreciated contributor to the mortality of animals released from fishing gears.  相似文献   

16.
Canopy‐forming macroalgae can construct extensive meadow habitats in tropical seascapes occupied by fishes that span a diversity of taxa, life‐history stages and ecological roles. Our synthesis assessed whether these tropical macroalgal habitats have unique fish assemblages, provide fish nurseries and support local fisheries. We also applied a meta‐analysis of independent surveys across 23 tropical reef locations in 11 countries to examine how macroalgal canopy condition is related to the abundance of macroalgal‐associated fishes. Over 627 fish species were documented in tropical macroalgal meadows, with 218 of these taxa exhibiting higher local abundance within this habitat (cf. nearby coral reef) during at least one life‐history stage. Major overlap (40%–43%) in local fish species richness among macroalgal and seagrass or coral reef habitats suggest macroalgal meadows may provide an important habitat refuge. Moreover, the prominence of juvenile fishes suggests macroalgal meadows facilitate the triphasic life cycle of many fishes occupying diverse tropical seascapes. Correlations between macroalgal canopy structure and juvenile abundance suggests macroalgal habitat condition can influence levels of replenishment in tropical fish populations, including the majority of macroalgal‐associated fishes that are targeted by commercial, subsistence or recreational fisheries. While many macroalgal‐associated fishery species are of minor commercial value, their local importance for food and livelihood security can be substantial (e.g. up to 60% of landings in Kenyan reef fisheries). Given that macroalgal canopy condition can vary substantially with sea temperature, there is a high likelihood that climate change will impact macroalgal‐associated fish and fisheries.  相似文献   

17.
We searched major electronic databases to identify peer‐reviewed literature investigating the role of temperature on the stress response and mortality of captured and released fish. We identified 83 studies that fit these criteria, the majority of which were conducted in North America (81%) on freshwater fish (76%) in the orders Perciformes (52%) and Salmoniformes (28%). We found that hook‐and‐line fisheries (65% of all studies) were more commonly studied than all net fisheries combined (24%). Despite the wide recognition for many species that high water temperatures exacerbate the effects of capture on released fish, this review is the first to quantitatively investigate this problem, finding that warming contributed to both mortality and indices of stress in 70% of articles that measured each of those endpoints. However, more than half (58%) of the articles failed to place the experimental temperatures into a biological context, therefore limiting their broad applicability to management. Integration of survival and sublethal effects to investigate mechanisms of fish mortality was relatively rare (28%). Collectively, the results suggest that capture–release mortality increases at temperatures within, rather than above, species‐specific thermal preferenda. We illustrate how knowledge of ecologically relevant high temperatures in the capture and release of fish can be incorporated into management, which will become increasingly important as climate change exerts additional pressure on fish and fisheries.  相似文献   

18.
The use of commercial catch statistics to estimate overfishing consequences has been criticised, but alternative long‐term data sets are rare. Long time‐series data sets from recreational fisheries competitions have been used to infer trends in coastal fish communities. Here an historic archive (1953–2007) of recreational spear fisheries in Galicia (NW Spain) was employed to estimate long‐term changes in coastal ecosystems. Using generalised additive regression models, decreases in the abundances of coastal rocky reef fishes of up to 76% over the last 50 years were found. In the same period, the mean body weight also decreased by 76%. In addition, relative catch frequency has decreased for the most valuable commercial species. Overfishing, amongst other human impacts, has brought these ecosystems so close to collapse that it is urgent to implement measures to ensure their recovery.  相似文献   

19.
Swordfish Xiphias gladius (Linnaeus, 1758) are a circumglobal pelagic fish targeted by multiple lucrative fisheries. Determining the distribution of swordfish larvae is important for indicating reproductive activity and understanding the early life history of swordfish. We identify and characterize larval swordfish distributions during peak swordfish spawning throughout the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea with generalized additive models (GAMs) using catches of swordfish larvae during ichthyoplankton surveys in April and May of 2010, 2011, and 2012. The best fit GAM, as determined by stepwise, backward Akaike Information Criterion selection, included both physiochemical (temperature at 5 m, sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), eddy kinetic energy (EKE)), temporal (lunar illumination, hour of sampling) and spatial (location) variables, while near surface chlorophyll a concentration residuals remained as a random effect. The highest probability of larval swordfish catch occurred at sub‐surface temperatures, SSHA, and EKE values indicative of boundary currents. Standard lengths of larvae were larger further downstream in the boundary currents, despite high variability in length with location due to multiple spawning locations of swordfish near these currents. Probability of larval swordfish catch also peaked during the crescent and gibbous moons, indicating a lunar periodicity to swordfish spawning. These results suggest that swordfish may spawn during select moon phases near boundary currents that transport their larvae to larval and juvenile habitat including the northern Gulf of Mexico and coastal waters of the southeast United States.  相似文献   

20.
Size‐based indicators are used worldwide in research that supports the management of commercially exploited wild fish populations, because of their responsiveness to fishing pressure. Observational and experimental data, however, have highlighted the deeply rooted links between fish size and environmental conditions that can drive additional, interannual changes in these indicators. Here, we have used biogeochemical and mechanistic niche modelling of commercially exploited demersal fish species to project time series to the end of the 21st century for one such indicator, the large fish indicator (LFI), under global CO2 emissions scenarios. Our modelling results, validated against survey data, suggest that the LFI's previously proposed policy target may be unachievable under future climate change. In turn, our results help to identify what may be achievable policy targets for demersal fish communities experiencing climate change. While fisheries modelling has grown as a science, climate change modelling is seldom used specifically to address policy aims. Studies such as this one can, however, enable a more sustainable exploitation of marine food resources under changes unmanageable by fisheries control. Indeed, such studies can be used to aid resilient policy target setting by taking into account climate‐driven effects on fish community size‐structure.  相似文献   

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