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1.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate sensitivity of microbial culture of pooled fecal samples for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) in large dairy herds and assess the use of the method for estimation of MAP prevalence. ANIMALS: 1,740 lactating cows from 29 dairy herds in California. PROCEDURE: Serum from each cow was tested by use of a commercial ELISA kit. Individual fecal samples were cultured and used to create pooled fecal samples (10 randomly selected fecal samples/pool; 6 pooled samples/herd). Sensitivity of MAP detection was compared between Herrold's egg yolk (HEY) agar and a new liquid culture method. Bayesian methods were used to estimate true prevalence of MAP-infected cows and herd sensitivity. RESULTS: Estimated sensitivity for pooled fecal samples among all herds was 0.69 (25 culture-positive pools/36 pools that were MAP positive). Sensitivity increased as the number of culture-positive samples in a pool increased. The HEY agar method detected more infected cows than the liquid culture method but had lower sensitivity for pooled fecal samples. Prevalence of MAP-infected cows was estimated to be 4% (95% probability interval, 2% to 6%) on the basis of culture of pooled fecal samples. Herd-level sensitivity estimate ranged from 90% to 100% and was dependent on prevalence in the population and the sensitivity for culture of pooled fecal samples. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Use of pooled fecal samples from 10 cows was a cost-effective tool for herd screening and may provide a good estimate of the percentage of MAP-infected cows in dairy herds with a low prevalence of MAP.  相似文献   

2.
The objective of this study was to describe the estimated within-herd prevalence (WHP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in a sample of infected dairy herds in Minnesota (N = 66) using test results from bacterial culture of pooled fecal samples. Fecal samples were collected from up to 100 cows in each herd and were tested using bacterial culture in pools of 5 cows based on age order. The mean herd size was 222 (44 to 1500) milking cows; the cows were predominantly Holstein. Using a frequentist approach, the within-herd mean individual fecal prevalence was 10% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4% to 16%] assuming 70% test sensitivity and 99.5% test specificity. Using Bayesian methods, the estimated true within-herd individual cow prevalence was 14% (95% CI = 7% to 27%). Within-herd prevalence was higher in larger dairy herds than in herds with fewer cows. As Map is the causative agent of Johne's disease (JD), the results of this study could contribute to the success of a nationwide control program for this disease.  相似文献   

3.
Fecal samples from 733 cows in 11 dairy herds with a low prevalence of paratuberculosis were cultured for the presence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis both individually and after combining (pooling) in groups of 5. The culture procedure was the modified Jorgensen method, which uses NaOH and oxalic acid for decontamination and modified Lowenstein-Jensen agar slants for cultivation. Pooling was performed by mixing fecal samples from 5 animals ordered by age, herein referred to as strategic pooling. Culture of individual fecal samples detected M. a. paratuberculosis infections in 43 of the 733 cows and 7 of 11 infected herds (herd sensitivity = 64%). Culture of pooled fecal samples detected M. a. paratuberculosis in 28 of 151 pooled samples representing 8 of the infected 11 herds (herd sensitivity = 73%). Feces of the 43 culture-positive cows was included in 32 pools: of these 32 pools, 26 were culture positive and 6 were culture negative. In addition to the 26 positive pools containing feces from cows that were found culture positive on individual fecal samples, another 2 pools were culture positive, although comprised of feces from cows with negative results after culture of individual fecal samples. From the total of 45 infected cows that were found (43 by individual fecal culture and an additional 2 by pooled fecal culture), individual fecal culture detected 43 of these 45 (96%), while pooled fecal culture detected 39 (87%). Culture of strategically pooled fecal samples using the modified Jorgensen method was equivalent in herd sensitivity to the culture of individual fecal samples and is significantly less expensive.  相似文献   

4.
We developed a stochastic simulation model to compare the herd sensitivity (HSe) of five testing strategies for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in Midwestern US dairies. Testing strategies were ELISA serologic testing by two commercial assays (EA and EB), ELISA testing with follow-up of positive samples with individual fecal culture (EAIFC and EBIFC), individual fecal culture (IFC), pooled fecal culture (PFC), and culture of fecal slurry samples from the environment (ENV). We assumed that these dairies had no prior paratuberculosis-related testing and culling. We used cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis to compare the cost to HSe of testing strategies for different within-herd prevalences. HSe was strongly associated with within-herd prevalence, number of Map organisms shed in feces by infected cows, and number of samples tested. Among evaluated testing methods with 100% herd specificity (HSp), ENV was the most cost-effective method for herds with a low (5%), moderate (16%) or high (35%) Map prevalence. The PFC, IFC, EAIFC and EBIFC were increasingly more costly detection methods. Culture of six environmental samples per herd yielded >or=99% HSe in herds with >or=16% within-herd prevalence, but was not sufficient to achieve 95% HSe in low-prevalence herds (5%). Testing all cows using EAIFC or EBIFC, as is commonly done in paratuberculosis-screening programs, was less likely to achieve a HSe of 95% in low than in high prevalence herds. ELISA alone was a sensitive and low-cost testing method; however, without confirmatory fecal culture, testing 30 cows in non-infected herds yielded HSp of 21% and 91% for EA and EB, respectively.  相似文献   

5.
Between 1982 and 2000, fecal samples were obtained from 786 cows that were shedding Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map). These cows were resident on 93 Pennsylvania dairies (mean herd size, 64 milk cows) that had no or minimal previous testing for Map. Feces were cultured on four tubes of Herrold's egg yolk medium and the distribution of mean Map colony forming units (CFU) was evaluated. Most cows were light (< 10 CFU/tube, 51.4%) or high (> 50 CFU/tube, 30.8%) fecal shedders with fewer cows in the moderate category (10-50 CFU/tube). Of the 786 cows, 192 (24.4%) had colonies in only one of four tubes. In the multivariable negative binomial model, there were significant associations between mean CFU/tube and prevalence, herd size, and season and an interaction between herd size and season. The linear mixed model of continuous tube counts with a random herd effect yielded similar findings with associations with herd size as a continuous variable, season, and an interaction between categorized prevalence and continuous herd size. Variability in CFU/tube was greatest among cows in the same herd, intermediate for replicate tubes from the same cow, and smallest among cows in different herds. Reduction in the number of replicate tubes from four would have reduced the sensitivity of fecal culture for Map by approximately 6% (for three tubes) to 12% (for two tubes).  相似文献   

6.
To identify optimal method(s) for certification and subsequent monitoring of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map)-unsuspected herds, certification-and-monitoring schemes were studied using a stochastic simulation model ("JohneSSim"). JohneSSim simulated the within-herd transmission and economic aspects of Map in closed Dutch dairy herds. The model was validated with field observations on Map-unsuspected herds. The current Dutch certification-and-monitoring schemes were compared with 11 alternative schemes in which individual and pooled fecal culture, ELISA, Johnin-intradermal test and gamma-IFN ELISA were used, varying the test frequency, tested age group and number of tested animals. On reaching the 'Map-free' status with the standard certification scheme, 11% of the simulated herds were not truly Map-free. Therefore, the designation 'Map-free' should be changed into, for instance, 'low-risk Map'. In the most-attractive alternative certification scheme, the 'Map-free' status was reached after four herd examinations (at 2-year intervals) consisting of serial testing of all cattle > or = 2 years of age with a pooled fecal culture and individual fecal culture of positive pools. This scheme resulted in lower total and annual discounted costs and a lower animal-level prevalence at reaching the 'Map-free' status compared to the standard scheme, assuming that there was no new introduction of the infection. Schemes to monitor the 'Map-free' status were compared, assuming that this status was reached with the standard certification scheme. In comparison to the standard monitoring scheme, none of the alternative monitoring schemes resulted in both a lower animal-level prevalence of undetected pre-existing Map infections in closed herds, and lower median annual discounted costs. Results of the model were very sensitive to the assumed sensitivity of the fecal culture test and to management measures that prevent within-herd transmission of Map. If these preventive measures were taken, the probability of undetected Map infections in closed 'Map-free' herds was decreased substantially.  相似文献   

7.
Two tests are used on a regular basis to detect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map): ELISA and fecal culture. Fecal culture is considered more sensitive and specific but is costly and requires 3-4 months for results. Pooling of fecal samples of individual animals may reduce the high costs of fecal culture. The objective of the study was to investigate the diagnostic validity and costs for pooling of fecal samples in dairy farms relative to culture or an ELISA on individual samples to determine the cow- or herd-status for Map. Fifty fecal and blood samples per herd were collected in 12 Chilean dairy herds. The sensitivity of pooling was estimated given the pool-size, amount of shedding in the pool and the prevalence in the herd. The sensitivity of the pools relative to individual fecal culture was 46% (95% CI 29-63%) and 48% (28-68%) for pools of 5 and 10 cows, respectively. The sensitivity of the pools was lower in pools with low shedders (26 and 24% for pools of 5 and 10, respectively) than in pools with moderate or heavy shedders (>75% sensitivity). Pools of 10 cows are the better option to determine or monitor the herd status. A whole-herd ELISA is the least expensive way to determine the status of individual cows but has a lower Se and Sp than individual culture.  相似文献   

8.
We investigated characteristics of Yersinia enterocolitica infection in Ontario finisher pig herds. Our specific objectives were to estimate or test: prevalence of Y. enterocolitica shedding in finisher pigs, bioserotype distribution, agreement between the herd-level tests based on sampling pig and pooled fecal samples, whether bioserotypes cluster by farms, and whether Y. enterocolitica-positive herds cluster spatially. In total, 3747 fecal samples were collected from 100 farms over the years 2001, 2002, and 2004 (250 total herd visits). Fecal samples were tested by culture and positive isolates were biotyped and serotyped.Apparent pig-level prevalence of Y. enterocolitica was 1.8%, 3.2%, and 12.5% in 2001, 2002, and 2004, respectively. Estimated true pig-level prevalence of Y. enterocolitica was 5.1%, 9.1%, and 35.1% in 2001, 2002, and 2004, respectively. Herd-level prevalence was 16.3%, 17.9%, and 37.5% in 2001, 2002, and 2004, respectively. In all years, the most common bioserotype was 4, O:3, followed by bioserotype 2, O:5,27. Kappa between herd-level status based on pig and pooled samples ranged between 0.51 and 0.68 for biotype 1A and bioserotype 4, O:3, respectively. For 4, O:3, a significant bias in discordant pairs was detected, indicating that pig samples were more sensitive than pooled samples in declaring a herd as positive. Farms tended to be repeatedly positive with the same bioserotype, but positive study farms did not cluster spatially (suggesting lack of between herd transmission and lack of a common geographic risk factor).  相似文献   

9.
Fifty dairy herds in Alberta were tested for the presence of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis by fecal culture and serum enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Individual sera (1500) were tested for antibodies to M. paratuberculosis by ELISA. Fecal samples were combined in pools of 3 (10 pools/herd) for a total of 500 pools that were cultured for M. paratuberculosis. Thirty cultures, including all 10 pools from 1 herd, were not readable due to fungal contamination. The remaining 470 cultures, representing 49 herds, yielded 16 positive pools (3.4% +/- 2.1%) from 10 herds (20.4% +/- 11.3%). The ELISA of each of the 1500 sera detected 105 (7.0% +/- 2.4%) positive sera and 20 (40.0% +/- 13.6%) positive herds, based on 2 or more individual positive sera in the herd. The true herd-level prevalence, as determined by ELISA, was 26.8% +/- 9.6%. The true herd-level prevalence, as determined by M. paratuberculosis fecal culture, ranged from 27.6% +/- 6.5% to 57.1% +/- 8.3%, depending on whether 1, 2, or all 3 individual fecal samples in the positive fecal pool were culture positive.  相似文献   

10.
OBJECTIVES: To determine the sensitivity of bacteriologic culture of pooled fecal samples in detecting Mycobacterium paratuberculosis, compared with bacteriologic culture of individual fecal samples in dairy cattle herds. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. ANIMALS: 24 dairy cattle herds. PROCEDURE: Individual and pooled fecal samples were submitted for bacteriologic culture, and results were compared between these groups. RESULTS: Ninety-four and 88% of pooled fecal samples that contained feces from at least 1 animal with high (mean, > or = 50 colonies/tube) and moderate (mean, 10 to 49 colonies/tube) concentrations of M paratuberculosis, respectively, were identified by use of bacteriologic culture of pooled fecal samples. Prevalences of paratuberculosis determined by bacteriologic culture of pooled and individual fecal samples were highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Bacteriologic culture of pooled fecal samples provided a valid and cost-effective method for the detection of M paratuberculosis infection in dairy cattle herds and can be used to estimate prevalence of infection within a herd.  相似文献   

11.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate prevalence of Salmonella spp in Ohio dairy farms and to identify potential risk factors for fecal shedding of salmonellae. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SAMPLE POPULATION: 105 Ohio dairy farms. PROCEDURE: Individual fecal samples from all mature cows in study herds were tested for Salmonella spp by use of standard bacteriologic culture procedures. Herds were identified as infected if at least 1 cow was shedding Salmonella spp. Information regarding herd characteristics, management practices, and health history were collected. Potential risk factors for herd-level Salmonella infection were identified. RESULTS: In 31% of the study herds (95% confidence interval, 22 to 40%), at least 1 cow was shedding Salmonella spp. Six percent of 7,776 fecal samples contained Salmonella organisms; prevalence within infected herds ranged from < 1 to 97%. Herd size, use of free stalls for lactating and nonlactating cows, and use of straw bedding in nonlactating cows were significantly associated with fecal shedding of Salmonella spp, as determined by use of univariate analysis. By use of multivariate analysis, large herds were more likely to be infected than smaller herds; however, no other factors were associated with Salmonella infection after adjustment for herd size. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Subclinical shedding of Salmonella spp is common in Ohio dairy herds, although we could not identify specific interventions that may influence the prevalence of Salmonella spp on dairy farms. It appears that large herd size and intensive management may provide an environment conducive to Salmonella shedding and chronic dairy herd infection.  相似文献   

12.
The study was conducted to develop methodology for least-cost strategies for using polymerase chain reaction (PCR)/probe testing of pooled blood samples to identify animals in a herd persistently infected with bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV). Cost was estimated for 5 protocols using Monte Carlo simulations for herd prevalences of BVDV persistent infection (BVDV-PI) ranging from 0.5% to 3%, assuming a cost for a PCR/probe test of $20. The protocol associated with the least cost per cow involved an initial testing of pools followed by repooling and testing of positive pools. For a herd prevalence of 1%, the least cost per cow was $2.64 (95% prediction interval = $1.72, $3.68), where pool sizes for the initial and repooled testing were 20 and 5 blood samples per pool, respectively. Optimization of the least cost for pooled-sample testing depended on how well a presumed prevalence of BVDV-PI approximated the true prevalence of BVDV infection in the herd. As prevalence increased beyond 3%, the least cost increased, thereby diminishing the competitive benefit of pooled testing. The protocols presented for sample pooling have general application to screening or surveillance using a sensitive diagnostic test to detect very low prevalence diseases or pathogens in flocks or herds.  相似文献   

13.
Epidemiologic investigations of Salmonella infections in dairy cattle often rely on testing fecal samples from individual animals or samples from other farm sources to determine herd infection status. The objectives of this project were to evaluate the effect of sampling frequency on Salmonella isolation and to compare Salmonella isolation and serogroup classification among sample sources on 12 US dairy farms sampled weekly for 7-8 weeks. Three herds per state were enrolled from Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Wisconsin based upon predefined herd-size criteria. Weekly samples were obtained from cattle, bulk tank milk, milk filters, water and feed sources and environmental sites. Samples were submitted to a central laboratory for isolation of Salmonella using standard laboratory procedures. The herd average number of cattle fecal samples collected ranged from 26 to 58 per week. Salmonella was isolated from 9.3% of 4049 fecal samples collected from cattle and 12.9% of 811 samples from other sources. Serogroup C1 was found in more than half of the samples and multiple serogroups were identified among isolates from the same samples and farms. The percentage of herd visits with at least one Salmonella isolate from cattle fecal samples increased with overall herd prevalence of fecal shedding. Only the three herds with an average fecal shedding prevalence of more than 15% had over 85% of weekly visits with at least one positive fecal sample. The prevalence of fecal shedding from different groups of cattle varied widely among herds showing that herds with infected cattle may be classified incorrectly if only one age group is tested. Testing environmental sample sources was more efficient for identifying infected premises than using individual cattle fecal samples.  相似文献   

14.
The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) among deer and rabbits surrounding infected and noninfected Minnesota dairy farms using fecal culture, and to describe the frequency that farm management practices were used that could potentially lead to transmission of infection between these species. Fecal samples from cows and the cow environment were collected from 108 Minnesota dairy herds, and fecal pellets from free-ranging white-tailed deer and eastern cottontail rabbits were collected from locations surrounding 114 farms; all samples were tested using bacterial culture. In addition, a questionnaire was administered to 114 herd owners. Sixty-two percent of the dairy herds had at least 1 positive fecal pool or environmental sample. A total of 218 rabbit samples were collected from 90% of the herds, and 309 deer samples were collected from 47% of the herds. On 2 (4%) of the farms sampled, 1 deer fecal sample was MAP positive. Both farms had samples from the cow fecal pool and cow environment that were positive by culture. On 2 (2%) other farms, 1 rabbit fecal sample was positive by culture to MAP, with one of these farms having positive cow fecal pools and cow environmental samples. Pasture was used on 79% of the study farms as a grazing area for cattle, mainly for dry cows (75%) and bred or prebred heifers (87%). Of the 114 farms, 88 (77%) provided access to drylot for their cattle, mainly for milking cows (77/88; 88%) and bred heifers (87%). Of all study farms, 90 (79%) used some solid manure broadcasting on their crop fields. Of all 114 farms, the estimated probability of daily physical contact between cattle manure and deer or rabbits was 20% and 25%, respectively. Possible contact between cattle manure and deer or rabbits was estimated to occur primarily from March through December. The frequency of pasture or drylot use and manure spreading on crop fields may be important risk factors for transmission of MAP among dairy cattle, deer, and rabbits. Although the MAP prevalence among rabbits and deer is low, their role as MAP reservoirs should be considered.  相似文献   

15.
Fecal samples were collected from 450 neonatal calves, ranging from 1 to 30 days old, between May, 1988 and May, 1989 to estimate the prevalence of bovine group A rotavirus in a stratified random sample of Ohio dairy herds. Calves were from 47 dairy herds chosen to be representative of Ohio herds. Bovine group A rotavirus was detected in fecal samples by a cell culture immunofluorescence test (CCIF) and ELISA. Of 450 samples tested, 46 (10%) were positive by CCIF and 67 (15%) were positive by ELISA. The agreement beyond chance between the 2 assays was good (kappa = 0.65). The overall prevalence rate of rotavirus shedding was 16.4% (74/450). Forty-three percent (29/67) of the samples positive by ELISA were subgroup 1, none were subgroup 2, and the remaining 57% (38/67) could not be assigned to either subgroups 1 or 2. Thirty herds (62.5%) had at least 1 group A rotavirus-positive calf (mean number of samples per positive herd = 12.4), and 17 herds (37.5%) had no rotavirus-positive calves (mean number of samples per negative herd = 6.0). A live oral rotacoronavirus vaccine was used in neonatal calves of only 1 herd and 3 of 17 (17.6%) calves from this herd were positive for group A rotavirus. The percentage of the rotavirus-positive fecal samples from all calves (n = 450) when stratified by fecal consistency was as follows: 28.3% (13/46) had liquid feces; 25.6% (10/39) had semiliquid feces; 23.4% (22/94) had pasty feces; and 10.7% (29/271) had firm feces.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)  相似文献   

16.
Leptospirosis is a zoonosis, found worldwide, affecting many species of animals. We conducted a cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of Leptospira borgpetersenii sv Hardjo and Leptospira interrogans sv Pomona in cattle in dairy herds in South-Western Victoria, Australia. Fifty-three herds were enrolled in the study. Urine samples were collected from 15 late-lactation cows in each herd. A questionnaire was provided to herd managers at the time of each herd visit, asking them to describe the methods they used for controlling leptospirosis, including vaccination. Urine samples were pooled at the herd level and tested for leptospira spp. using real time PCR. Urine samples from individual cows within the positive pooled samples were then tested for Leptospira Hardjo and Leptospira Pomona using qPCR. Four of the 53 herds showed positive leptospirosis results giving an apparent prevalence of 8 (95% CI 2–18) leptospira-positive herds per 100 herds at risk. Based on the 53 completed questionnaires, leptospirosis vaccination programs were not compliant with label directions in 36 of the 52 vaccinated herds: 69 (95% CI 55–81) of 100 herd managers that routinely vaccinated for leptospirosis did not comply with label directions. One herd was completely unvaccinated. Based on our findings, we estimate that approximately 10% of dairy farms in South-Western Victoria are likely to be infected with leptospirosis. While most herds are vaccinating for leptospirosis, most are not doing so according to label directions. We conclude that herd managers need to be better educated regarding leptospirosis vaccination programs.  相似文献   

17.
In herds with known prevalence (P) use of environmental sampling (ES) to detect Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infected cattle herds was proofed in relation to P. In 31 MAP-infected free stall dairy herds and 15 non-infected herds P was defined by annually repeated whole herd testing by fecal culture (34 877 individual samples). Eight infected herds had a very low (> 0-2%), 14 a low (> 2-5%), four a medium (> 5-10%), and five a high P (> 10%). A mean number of nine environmental samples per herd were collected from the floor of lactating cows, milking, calving and sick cow areas and the crossover to the calf area. After twelve weeks cultivation on HEYM-medium with and without mycobactin positive samples were further characterized by PCR. All non-infected herds (100%) showed negative and 22 (71%) of the infected herds positive results in ES. Nine infected herds with negative ES results had a low P (0.04-4,04%). Proportion of positive ES depended on P and on sampling areas with 53.3% positive results in lactating cow areas and 45.2% in milking areas. For P > 5%, ES in these two areas caused a positive herd status; herds with P < 5% required sampling in the other areas too. The ES method has a herd sensitivity of 87% for dairy herds with P > 2% and provides an efficient tool to determine MAP infection status or herd prevalence.  相似文献   

18.
Dutch dairy herds closed for at least 3 years with no history of paratuberculosis were recruited for a study on herd-certification. One hundred dairy herds were tested for Mycobacterium paratuberculosis at 6-month intervals by pooled faecal culture (five individual animal samples per pool) with solid media. Ninety of the herds completed 9 herd tests and 10 herds dropped out of the study for reasons other than a paratuberculosis diagnosis. Of the 90 herds completing the full study, 61% eventually were found to be M. paratuberculosis-infected. The number of infected herds detected decreased with each round of testing. Assuming that all infected herds had been detected by the ninth herd test, the observed percentage of herds that were truly noninfected (P-free) after each round of testing was calculated. The observed P-free was compared to the predicted P-free based on a previously reported herd-certification model. The P-free predicted by the model was significantly different from the observed P-free. When a single assumption in the model was changed and a diagnostic sensitivity of 40–50% was selected, the predicted P-free closely approximated the observed P-free for the 90 Dutch dairy herds studied. The critical assumption that was changed for Version 2.0 of the model was within-herd infection prevalence for infected but test-negative herds after each round of serial testing. Model Version 1.0 had assumed a 50% decrease in within-herd prevalence but Version 2.0 assumed a stable within-herd prevalence. Culture of pooled faecal samples provides a high-sensitive, high-specific, low-cost test for herd-certification programs.  相似文献   

19.
We used a linear programming model to estimate the financial returns to a Staphylococcus aureus testing and control program over a 1-year period for a 100-cow herd, with a 8636kg rolling-herd average. Six tests, which vary in sensitivity from 0.80 to 0.98 and specificity of 0.99, were examined in simulated herds with 10, 20, and 30% prevalence of S. aureus infection. Sensitivity of these results to a range of assumptions regarding rolling-herd average, milk price, somatic cell-count premium, and cost and cure rate of dry treatment were examined to determine the profits from the program. The profits of a control program are most dependent upon prevalence and cell-count premium. In our simulation for a 100-cow herd, a testing and control program results in a profit ranging from US$1.50 to US$20 per cow per year, except under the lowest prevalence and most-adverse conditions (low yield or low SCC premium).  相似文献   

20.
A stochastic simulation model was developed to assess the risk of introduction of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection into a dairy herd through purchase of female replacement cattle. The effects of infection prevalence in the source herd(s), number of females purchased, and testing by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) alone or ELISA and fecal culture as risk mitigation strategies were evaluated. Decisions about negative test results were made on a lot and individual basis. A hypothetical dairy herd, free from M. a. paratuberculosis, which replaced 1 lot (10, 30, or 100) of cows per year, was considered. Probability distributions were specified for the sensitivities and specificities of ELISA and fecal culture, the proportion of infected herds and within-herd prevalence for randomly selected replacement source herds (high prevalence) and herds in level 2 (medium prevalence) and level 3 (low prevalence) of the Voluntary Johne's Disease Herd Status Program (VJDHSP). Simulation results predicted that 1-56% of the lots had at least 1 M. a. paratuberculosis-infected cow. Assuming that ELISA sensitivity was 25%, simulation results showed on a lot basis that between 0.4% and 18% and between 0.1% and 9% were predicted to have at least 1 infected cow not detected by ELISA and by a combination of ELISA and fecal culture, respectively. On an individual cow basis, between 0.1% and 8.3% of ELISA-negative cattle in ELISA-positive lots were estimated to be infected. In both the lot and individual analyses, the probability of nondetection increased with larger lot sizes and greater prevalence. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the effect of a lower ELISA sensitivity (10%) was a variable decrease in mean detection probabilities for all combinations of prevalence and lot size. The benefit of testing introduced cattle with ELISA alone or in combination with fecal culture was found to be minimal if cows were purchased from known, low-prevalence (level 3) herds. The value of testing by ELISA alone or in combination with fecal culture was greatest in high-prevalence herds for all lot sizes. Testing of random-source cattle, bought as herd replacements, can partially mitigate the risk of introduction of M. a. paratuberculosis but not as well as by using low-prevalence source herds (level-3 VJDHSP), with or without testing.  相似文献   

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