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1.
根据伊塞克湖1950—2010年期间的年平均水位资料,采用趋势分析和小波分析,对伊塞克湖年平均水位变化时间序列进行研究,从而揭示伊塞克湖水位变化的总体趋势和周期性变化规律。结果表明:（1） 1950—2010年期间,伊塞克湖水位总体呈下降趋势,共下降1.27 m,1950—1997年水位持续下降,1998年开始转为上升。（2） 20世纪90年代之前,人类活动是引起湖泊水位下降的主要驱动因子;20世纪90年代后,在全球气候变化的作用下,该地区降水量的增加影响到径流量的增加,从而引起湖泊水位的缓慢上升。（3） 1950—2010年间的周期性分析结果显示,伊塞克湖年平均水位存在21 a的主周期,并且2010年以后的一段时间伊塞克湖水位处于偏高时期。 相似文献
2.
基于时间序列分解方法的太湖未来特征水位预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于太湖沿湖5个水文台站1956—2006年的逐日平均水位数据,提取得到了逐年特征(平均、最高和最低)水位,运用时间序列分解方法模拟和预测了太湖未来15a的特征水位,并探讨了太湖未来洪灾情势。将水位序列分解为趋势成分、周期成分和随机成分,得到时间序列分解模型,并进行了水位序列模拟和预测。分析结果表明,该模型的模拟精度比较理想,可以实现未来较长期的特征水位预测。预测得到未来15a后的最高水位可能达到4.05m,显著超过太湖警戒水位,因此需引起相关部门的重视。 相似文献
3.
[目的]分析铁山水库饮用水水源地的降水演变规律,为流域水资源利用以及铁山水库的调度运行提供依据。[方法]运用线性回归、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平、滑动t检验和小波分析等方法,分析铁山水库饮用水水源地流域1968—2014年年降水、汛期降水和非汛期降水的演变规律。[结果](1)47a间年降水量、汛期降水量和非汛期降水量均呈现不明显的上升趋势。(2)年降水在1987和2003年发生了显著性突变,汛期降水在1992和2003年发生了显著性突变,非汛期降水未发生显著性突变。(3)年降水和汛期降水存在29a左右的主周期,非汛期降水存在28a左右的主周期,各时期的周期基本一致。[结论]铁山水库各时期的降水演变规律基本一致。 相似文献
4.
《水土保持研究》2020,(1)
利用松花江流域上的35个台站1956—2015年气温资料,分别采用一元线性回归法、M-K突变检验法和Morlet小波周期法研究了松花江流域近60年的年平均气温、年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温时空变化特征、突变特征和周期特征。结果表明:近60年来松花江流域气温整体呈现显著上升趋势,且存在明显的增温高值区;年平均气温增幅为0.322℃/10 a,年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温分别为0.190,0.429℃/10 a;气温在1987—1992年发生突变,突变后的气温变化趋势呈现明显的上升;松花江流域3种气温序列均存在3个主要的变化周期,分别为28年、14年和7年。研究成果对于了解松花江流域气候变化趋势、合理开发利用水土资源具有重要意义。 相似文献
5.
河流三角洲低水位的变化受气候因素和人类活动共同控制,对河道的通航与取水具有重要意义。为探明西北江三角洲低水位的演变趋势和各影响因素对其的作用,基于马口、三水站1972—2017年最低水位序列,结合两站河床地形、流域降水、径流和下边界海平面高度等资料,识别出年最低水位的演变趋势,并探讨了各影响因素在其变化过程中起到的作用。结果表明:马口、三水站年最低水位演变过程可分为波动期(1972—1990年)、突变下降期(1991—2003年)和缓变回升期(2004—2017年)。1972—1990年最低水位受降水因素的控制在-0.11 m上下波动,而1991—2003年在河床地形剧烈下切的驱动下最低水位大幅下降至-0.50 m以下,进入2004—2017年最低水位在水土保持措施和水库对枯季径流的调节作用等多因素共同影响下又有所回升。近年来,人类活动对西北江三角洲低水位的影响已经逐步超过气候因素,成为低水位演变的主导因素。 相似文献
6.
巴音沟河近60年出山口年径流量演变规律 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对径流演变规律的研究是水资源合理利用、水利规划的前提。以新疆典型山溪河流巴音沟河黑山头水文站1956—2014年的年径流序列为基础,采用累积距平法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、小波分析方法,对巴音沟河流域年径流量的变化趋势、突变特征、周期演变规律进行了研究。结果表明:(1)近60年来巴音沟河流域年径流量有缓慢上升趋势,并且呈现出一定的阶段性。(2)近60年来巴音沟河流域年径流量变化在1958—1960年和2003年两个时间段发生突变。1958—1960年是径流由多变少的突变时段,2003年是径流由少变多的突变时段。(3)巴音沟河流域年径流量主要存在7年,11年,30年的主周期,且30年时间尺度周期最明显,是河流的第一主周期。 相似文献
7.
1951-2011年湘江径流泥沙演变过程与特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据湘江主要控制站1951-2011年长时间序列径流与泥沙资料,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、小波分析法和均值差异T检验法等,揭示了湘江年径流量和年输沙量演变特征与规律,并分析了其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)径流量呈微弱增加趋势,而输沙量下降趋势明显; (2)时间序列上径流量未发生突变,而输沙量在1997年发生了突变,表现为1997年后有显著下降趋势; (3)小波分析表明径流量和输沙量均存在20和7 a的周期性变化规律; (4) 60 a来湘江年径流量可以分为1951-1954和1992-2002年两个多水期,1955-1991和2003-2011年两个少水期。径流泥沙集中度与集中期分析表明输沙量年内分配不均匀性更为明显,输沙主要集中在每年6月; (5)年输沙量显著减少主要是水利工程拦沙和水土保持工程措施所致。 相似文献
8.
基于MODIS遥感影像的湖水体面积与水位关系 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
为了弥补新疆博斯腾湖区云天状况下光学遥感监测水体面积的不足、提高水体面积监测的效率,该文利用2001-2010年5-10月MODIS影像提取的水体信息和逐月水位监测数据,采用统计分析的方法确立了博斯腾湖面积-水位关系模型,并建立了2001-2010年5-10月面积-水位曲线。面积-水位曲线拟合和遥感提取的水体面积均方根误差较小(24.1km2)。结果表明:MODIS遥感数据能有效地监测水体面积变化,2001-2010年博斯腾湖水体面积、水位呈下降趋势。博斯腾湖(不含小湖群)的水体面积与水位相关性高,且在一定范围内有着较好的三次回归关系。该研究可为云雾天气下博斯腾湖(不含小湖群)水体面积遥感定量监测提供弥补方法和途径。 相似文献
9.
应用时间序列模型分析长武塬区地下水水位的变化特征 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
针对长武塬区地下水资源贫乏的问题,运用时间序列分析理论对长武塬区地下水位动态变化进行了分析和横拟.采用多项式拟合计算水位动态的趋势分量,运用谐波分析提取周期项,利用自回归(AR)模型模拟随机分量,将得到的三个分量进行叠加建立预报模型.依据长武塬区三口监测井的月平均水位埋深资料,运用SAS提供的指数平滑模型建立地下水位动态模拟和预测模型,并对模型的模拟和预测精度进行分析.(1)时间序列分析法可以简易快捷地模拟预测研究区的地下水位变化,且计算简单,所需资料较少且易于获得,可作为一种简易快速的地下水位模拟预测模型;(2)所建立的时间序列模型需要及时更新资料以提高预测精度;(3)通过对周期项的分析可知研究区地下水位变化存在的主要周期为7.4～10 a,且周期逐年增长,揭示了地下水位的多年变化规律;(4)研究区地下水水位呈下降趋势,尤其近几年水位下降幅度增大,应加以控制. 相似文献
10.
厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对青海湖周边地区气候的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
根据1961年来青海湖周边地区的气温和降水量资料,结合小波分析和ENSO事件的发生与变化,研究了1961年来青海湖周边气温与降水的变化趋势,以及厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件对该区气温、降水量以及旱涝灾害的影响.结果表明,1961年来青海湖周边地区的年降水量呈波动上升趋势,西部最显著,年降水量以8.73 mm/10 a的速率增加.该地区的年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,平均气温增温率接近或明显高于全国平均水平.1988-2010年多年平均气温比1961-1987年增加更显著.小波分析显示,青海湖周边地区降水变化周期约为3,7和17a,气温变化的周期约为3,7和29 a.不同研究区域的降水量和气温变化与ENSO事件相关性不同.研究数据表明,青海湖周边地区厄尔尼诺年发生涝灾多于旱灾,而拉尼娜年多发生旱灾.1961-2009年青海湖水位总体趋势在下降,2005年后出现回升,流域降水量对湖水位的年变化有显著影响. 相似文献
11.
Sycheva S. A. Pushkina P. R. Khokhlova O. S. Ukrainsky P. A. 《Eurasian Soil Science》2020,53(11):1521-1537
Eurasian Soil Science - Recent and Late Pleistocene soils of the central forest-steppe in the East European Plain have been studied. The main objective of the work is to reveal changes in the... 相似文献
12.
Changes in the taxonomic structure of actinomycetes in the rhizosphere of winter rye (Secale cereale L.) growing on acid soddy-podzolic soil were studied. During the first stages of ontogenesis of winter rye, the rhizosphere complex of mycelial prokaryotes was characterized by a relatively level generic structure (with respect to the indices of abundance and frequency of particular genera), low values of the species diversity, and low domination frequency of the species from the Streptomyces genus. The numbers and species diversity of the streptomycetes increased during the further growth of the winter rye, so that streptomycetes became a dominant group in the complex of the rhizosphere actinomycetes. According to the two-way ANOVA, the population density of the Micromonospora and the Streptosporangium genera in the rhizosphere was mainly dictated by the winter rye variety, whereas the population density of the streptomycetes depended on the particular stage of the winter rye development. The differences between the actinomycetal complexes characteristic of different varieties of winter rye at the early stages of its development was leveled by the end of the winter rye growth. 相似文献
13.
Yu. G. Chendev A. L. Aleksandrovskii O. S. Khokhlova M. I. Dergacheva A. N. Petin A. N. Golotvin V. A. Sarapulkin G. L. Zemtsov S. V. Uvarkin 《Eurasian Soil Science》2017,50(1):1-13
The Late Holocene stage of forest pedogenesis has been studied on the interfluves along river valleys in the forest-steppe zone of the Central Russian Upland. The development of gray forest soils from the former chernozems as a result of the Late Holocene advance of forest vegetation over steppes is discussed. It is argued that the climatic conditions of the Subatlantic period were unstable, so that multiple alternation of forest and steppe vegetation communities took place. This specified a complex character of soil evolution upon contrasting substitution of forest pedogenesis for steppe pedogenesis. On the interfluves near the natural drainage network (balkas, ravines, and steep slopes of river valleys), the climate-driven dynamics of forest and steppe vegetation with corresponding changes in the character of pedogenesis could take place during the entire Holocene, which is reflected in a lower thickness of humus profiles and deeper leaching of carbonates from chernozems of the Early Iron Age in comparison with their analogues formed under steppe cenoses in central parts of the interfluves. Two variants of the evolution of gray forest soils can be suggested: the pulsating evolution typical of balkas and interfluves near river valleys and the continuous progressive evolution typical of automorphic (plakor) positions in central parts of the interfluves. 相似文献
14.
Accumulation of chemical elements in the raised peatbogs of the subtaiga Trans-Urals in the Holocene
The results of studying the variability of the geochemical parameters of the layers of the Sartamskii upland peatbog in the south of Tyumen oblast based on the radiocarbon time scale are given. Four basic types of peat and stages of peat deposits formation in the Holocene are distinguished: the organomineral layer of the sediments in a paleolake (up to 5065 ± 60 years ago), the low moor layer (4300–4900 years ago), the transitional layer (3100–4300 years ago), and the high moor peat (250–3100 years ago). The upper peat layer (last 200–300 years) significantly differs from its main portion; in particular, it is characterized by an increased ash content and the accumulation of a number of elements. The relationship between the various characteristics of the deposit is analyzed using principal component analysis, and the conditions of the formation of the peat deposit in different time periods are estimated, including the climatic conditions (in relative units). The anthropogenic signal of the accumulation of some elements in wetland systems is identified. 相似文献
15.
论述数字馆藏的产生、概念和特点,分析数字馆藏资源建设中存在的问题,探讨数字馆藏资源建设中应采取的策略。 相似文献
16.
The alterations are studied which are produced in the content of mineral elements and organic fractions of sap with the increase in the osmotic pressure of the nutritive solution at levels of 2.0; 3.5 and 5.0 atm., obtained through the addition to the nutritive solution either of magnesium sulphate or PEG‐4000. Through the effect of the osmotic pressure, the transformations are modified of the nitrogen and mineral phosphorus at organic fractions experience a series of modifications which produce different values in the Nm%TSN and Pm%TSP ratios with respect to control. Through action of the specific effect of magnesium sulphate, the reducing sugars concentrations in sap having an important increase. 相似文献
17.
Specific structural and dynamic parameters of communities from various ecological and trophic groups of microorganisms and algae in the litter of artificial tree stands were studied using the example of the Staro-Berdyansky Forest in the steppe zone of Ukraine. The composition of the communities was shown to vary by seasons and depend on the forest-forming woody species. In spring, in all the litters, the maximal number of actinomycetes and aminotrophs was recorded; in the leaf litter, the number of phosphate-mobilizing organisms was also the largest. In summer, the development of cellulolytic organisms, ammonifiers, and nitrogen-fixers was intensified; in autumn, the number of micromycetes and oligotrophic organisms decreased. The composition of dominants, the species richness of algae and their abundance also varied by seasons. Representatives of the Chlorophyta division predominated. The highest species richness of algae was characteristic of the spring litter samples, and their number, for the spring and autumn ones. The positive correlation was established between the numbers of micromycetes and oligotrophs, micromycetes and algae. The negative correlation was found between the numbers of micromycetes and actinomycetes, cellulose-decompose bacteria and algae in the litters. 相似文献
18.
Changes in the physical properties of soils in the Kamennaya Steppe under the impact of shelterbelts
The physical properties of ordinary chernozems and meadow-chernozemic soils under different land management practices (maple,
larch, birch, and pine sections of the shelterbelts; continuous (since 1959) fallow; and arable field (since 1952)) were studied
in the Kamennaya Steppe. The soils had favorable physicochemical properties, light clayey texture, and high microaggregation
independently from the type of land management. The long-term impact of the shelterbelts improved the soil structure in the
upper part of the humus horizon: the content of agronomically valuable aggregates increased, the content of coarse aggregates
(>10 mm) decreased, the aggregation coefficient increased by 3.7–4.3 times, and the water stability of the aggregates became
by 8–12% higher. The soils under the shelterbelts were characterized by minimum values of the bulk density and solid phase
density and by maximum values of the total, active, and air porosities. At the same time, no considerable differences between
water reserves in the studied range of soils were detected. The ratio of the optimum productive water range to the active
(productive) water range (OPWR/AWR) within the upper soil meter varied from 0.42–0.44 to 0.45–0.54. This points to changes
in the character of perched water: the content of intra-aggregate capillary-perched water decreases, and content of film perched
water increases down the soil profile. 相似文献
19.
产地溯源是保护农产品品牌及地区特色产品、防止欺诈、保护消费者权益的有效保障。稳定同位素指纹分析是用于食品产地溯源的有效技术之一,具有高效、准确、可靠的特点。本文系统分析了近5年来,稳定同位素指纹分析技术在植物源性初级农产品、加工农产品溯源中的应用以及稳定同位素在食品加工过程中分馏变化的研究进展。在此基础上,展望了今后稳定同位素在植物源性农产品产地溯源中的研究重点和发展方向。 相似文献
20.
Snow disposal creates problems each year in Montreal. Snow dumping in water courses is favored due to both esthetic and economic considerations. Used snow must be considered as a potential pollutant. Its impact on the aquatic receiving environment is not well known. With river dumping in progress, snow samples were collected at 3 sites: Concorde Bridge, and at piers 30 and 52 in Montreal Harbor. Analysis of 28 routine parameters demonstrated that the quality of snow ultimately dumped in the river varies considerably according to its sources and the time it remains in the streets. Used-snow from residential areas was shown to be less polluted than the snow from commercial areas. Furthermore, from the total number of sampled districts, used-snow dumped at pier 30 appears to be relatively more polluted as it originated from downtown areas where vehicle circulation is more dense. Heavy metals in particles sizes between 0.45 and 63 μm represented more than 70% of the measured suspended solids which reflects the risk of bioaccumulation via benthic organisms. Principal component analysis of present data suggests that with analysis of chlorides, suspended solids and Pb alone, it is possible to approximately determine the quality of used-snow. 相似文献