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1.
Xia-li Luan Alexander Buyantuev Albert Hans Baur Birgit Kleinschmit Haijun Wang Sheng Wei Maosong Liu Chi Xu 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(7):1211-1224
Context
Emissions of greenhouse gases in urban areas play an important role in climate change. Increasing attention has been given to urban landscape structure–emission relationships (SERs). However, it remains unknown if and to what extent SERs are dependent on observational scale.Objective
To assess how changing observational scales (in terms of spatial and thematic resolutions) of urban landscape structure affect SERs.Methods
We examined correlations between 16 landscape metrics and greenhouse gas emissions across 52 European cities, through (1) systematic manipulation of spatial and thematic resolutions of the urban land use/cover (ULUC) dataset, and (2) comparison between available standard ULUC datasets with different spatial resolutions.Results
Our analyses showed that the observed SERs significantly depend on both thematic and spatial resolutions of the ULUC data. For the 16 landscape metrics, we found diverse spatial/thematic scaling relations exhibiting monotonic, hump-shaped or scale-invariant trends. For different landscape metrics, the SERs were strongest at different spatial scales, suggesting that there is no consistent scaling relation over those observational scales.Conclusions
SERs are highly sensitive to spatial and thematic resolutions of landscape data. To avoid the problem of ‘ecological fallacy,’ important caveats should be taken for interpretations based on single landscape metrics. Particular consideration should be paid to metrics that are easily interpretable, predictable in scaling behaviors, and important for shaping SERs, such as PLAND, ED, and LPI. Systematic investigations on scaling behaviors of SERs over well-defined scale domains are encouraged in future studies linking greenhouse gas emissions and urban landscape structure.2.
Context
Landscape spatio-temporal heterogeneity is regarded as an important driver of biodiversity. In agricultural landscapes, the composition and configuration of cultivated fields and their multi-year dynamics should be considered. But the habitat-matrix paradigm in landscape ecology has resulted in little consideration of cropped areas.Objectives
The main objective of our study was to determine the influences of spatial and multi-year temporal heterogeneity of the crop mosaic on carabid beetle assemblages of agricultural landscapes.Methods
Carabids were sampled in 40 cereal fields in western France, and their species richness, total abundance and abundance of species groups with different dispersal abilities were measured. For each sampling site, we computed different metrics that characterized crop mosaic spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We quantified relationships between carabid assemblages and heterogeneity metrics and tested their significance.Results
Total carabid abundance increased with increase in temporal heterogeneity of the crop mosaic. However, all species were not influenced in the same way by spatial and temporal heterogeneity metrics. Some species with high dispersal power such as Trechus quadristriatus were more abundant in landscapes with high spatial heterogeneity, whereas the abundance of less mobile species such as Poecilus cupreus were only positively influenced by temporal crop dynamics.Conclusions
Our results suggest that both the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the crop mosaic affects farmland biodiversity, at least for species that use crops during their life cycle or disperse through fields. We highlight the importance of taking this heterogeneity into account in further ecological studies on biodiversity in agricultural landscapes.3.
Ronan Marrec Gaël Caro Paul Miguet Isabelle Badenhausser Manuel Plantegenest Aude Vialatte Vincent Bretagnolle Bertrand Gauffre 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(12):2383-2398
Context
Agroecosystems are dynamic, with yearly changing proportions of crops. Explicit consideration of this temporal heterogeneity is required to decipher population and community patterns but remains poorly studied.Objectives
We evaluated the impact on the activity-density of two dominant carabid species (Poecilus cupreus and Anchomenus dorsalis) of (1) local crop, current year landscape composition, and their interaction, and (2) inter-annual changes in landscape composition due to crop rotations.Methods
Carabids were sampled using pitfall-traps in 188 fields of winter cereals and oilseed rape in three agricultural areas of western France contrasting in their spatial heterogeneity. We summarized landscape composition in the current and previous years in a multi-scale perspective, using buffers of increasing size around sampling locations.Results
Both species were more abundant in oilseed rape, and in landscapes with a higher proportion of oilseed rape in the previous year. P. cupreus abundance was negatively influenced by oilseed rape proportion in the current year landscape in winter cereals and positively by winter cereal proportion in oilseed rape. A. dorsalis was globally impacted at finer scales than P. cupreus.Conclusions
Resource concentration and dilution-concentration processes jointly appear to cause transient dynamics of population abundance and distribution among habitat patches. Inter-patch movements across years appear to be key drivers of carabids’ survival and distribution, in response to crop rotation. Therefore, the explicit consideration of the spatiotemporal dynamics of landscape composition can allow future studies to better evidence ecological processes behind observed species patterns and help developing new management strategies.4.
Kimberly A. With 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(5):969-980
Context
The species–area relationship (SAR) is the most ubiquitous scaling relationship in ecology, yet we still do not know how different aspects of scale affect this relationship. Scale is defined by grain, extent, and focus. Focus here pertains to whether patches or landscapes are used to derive SARs.Objective
To explore whether altering the focal scale influences the resulting SAR. If the SAR is scale-invariant, patch-based and landscape-based SARs should be congruent.Methods
I fit a power-law function (S = cA z) to arthropod data obtained from an experimental landscape system, in which habitat amount and configuration (clumped vs. fragmented) of red clover (Trifolium pratense) varied among plots (256 m2). The scaling coefficient (z) was compared among patch-based and landscape-based SARs for congruence.Results
Patches gained species at a faster rate than landscapes (z = 0.37 vs. 0.26, respectively), producing domains of incongruity in the SAR. Landscape richness (S L) was greater than patch richness (S P) below 30 % habitat, but S P > S L above 60 % habitat. Landscape configuration contributed to this incongruity below 30 % habitat (fragmented S L > clumped S L), but landscape context (whether the largest patch was embedded in a fragmented or clumped landscape) was important above 60 % habitat for understanding the SAR in this domain.Conclusions
Landscape configuration exerts both direct (<30 % habitat) and indirect (>60 % habitat) effects on the SAR. Because patch-based and landscape-based SARs may not be congruent, we should exercise care when extrapolating from patches to landscapes to make inferences about the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on species richness.5.
Kevin McGarigal Bradley W. Compton Ethan B. Plunkett William V. DeLuca Joanna Grand Eduard Ene Scott D. Jackson 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(7):1029-1048
Context
Conservation planning is increasingly using “coarse filters” based on the idea of conserving “nature’s stage”. One such approach is based on ecosystems and the concept of ecological integrity, although myriad ways exist to measure ecological integrity.Objectives
To describe our ecosystem-based index of ecological integrity (IEI) and its derivative index of ecological impact (ecoImpact), and illustrate their applications for conservation assessment and planning in the northeastern United States.Methods
We characterized the biophysical setting of the landscape at the 30 m cell resolution using a parsimonious suite of settings variables. Based on these settings variables and mapped ecosystems, we computed a suite of anthropogenic stressor metrics reflecting intactness (i.e., freedom from anthropogenic stressors) and resiliency metrics (i.e., connectivity to similar neighboring ecological settings), quantile-rescaled them by ecosystem and geographic extent, and combined them in a weighted linear model to create IEI. We used the change in IEI over time under a land use scenario to compute ecoImpact.Results
We illustrated the calculation of IEI and ecoImpact to compare the ecological integrity consequences of a 70-year projection of urban growth to an alternative scenario involving securing a network of conservation core areas (reserves) from future development.Conclusions
IEI and ecoImpact offer an effective way to assess ecological integrity across the landscape and examine the potential ecological consequences of alternative land use and land cover scenarios to inform conservation decision making.6.
Michelle L. Brown Therese M. Donovan Ruth M. Mickey Gregory S. Warrington W. Scott Schwenk David M. Theobald 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(1):93-108
Context
Projected increases in human population size are expected to increase forest loss and fragmentation in the next century at the expense of forest-dwelling species.Objectives
We estimated landscape carrying capacity (N k) for Ovenbirds in urban, suburban, exurban, and rural areas for the years 2000 and 2050, and compared changes in N k with changes in occupancy probability.Methods
Maximum clique analysis, a branch of mathematical graph theory, was used to estimate landscape carrying capacity, the maximum potential number of territories a given landscape is capable of supporting (N k). We used occupancy probability maps as inputs for calculating Ovenbird N k in the northeastern USA and a spatially explicit growth model to forecast future development patterns in 2050. We compared occupancy probability with estimates of N k for urban, suburban, exurban, and rural areas for the years 2000 and 2050.Results
In response to human population growth and development, Ovenbird N k was predicted to decrease 23% in urban landscapes, 28% in suburban landscapes, 43% in exurban landscapes, and 20% in rural landscapes. These decreases far exceeded decreases in mean occupancy probabilities that ranged between 2 and 5% across the same development categories. Thus, small decreases in occupancy probability between 2000 and 2050 translated to much larger decreases in N k.Conclusions
For the first time, our study compares occupancy probability with a species population metric, N k, to assess the impact of future development. Maximum clique analysis is a tool that can be used to estimate N k and inform landscape management and communication with stakeholders.7.
Jason J. Kolbe Paul VanMiddlesworth Andrew C. Battles James T. Stroud Bill Buffum Richard T. T. Forman Jonathan B. Losos 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(8):1795-1813
Context
Urban landscapes are a mixture of built structures, human-altered vegetation, and remnant semi-natural areas. The spatial arrangement of abiotic and biotic conditions resulting from urbanization doubtless influences the establishment and spread of non-native species in a city.Objectives
We investigated the effects of habitat structure, thermal microclimates, and species coexistence on the spread of a non-native lizard (Anolis cristatellus) in the Miami metropolitan area of South Florida (USA).Methods
We used transect surveys to estimate lizard occurrence and abundance on trees and to measure vegetation characteristics, and we assessed forest cover and impervious surface using GIS. We sampled lizard body temperatures, habitat use, and relative abundance at multiple sites.Results
At least one of five Anolis species occupied 79 % of the 1035 trees surveyed in primarily residential areas, and non-native A. cristatellus occupied 25 % of trees. Presence and abundance of A. cristatellus were strongly associated with forest patches, dense vegetation, and high canopy cover, which produced cooler microclimates suitable for this species. Presence of A. cristatellus was negatively associated with the ecologically similar non-native A. sagrei, resulting in reduced abundance and a shift in perch use of A. cristatellus.Conclusions
The limited spread of A. cristatellus in Miami over 35 years is due to the patchy, low-density distribution of wooded habitat, which limits dispersal by diffusion. The presence of congeners may also limit spread. Open habitats—some parks, yards and roadsides—contain few if any A. cristatellus, and colonization of isolated forest habitat appears to depend on human-mediated dispersal.8.
Joan Marull Carme Font Enric Tello Nofre Fullana Elena Domene Manel Pons Elena Galán 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(2):317-336
Context
The role of agricultural landscapes in biodiversity conservation is an emerging topic in a world experiencing a worrying decrease of species richness. Farm systems may either decrease or increase biological diversity, depending on land-use intensities and management.Objectives
We present an intermediate disturbance-complexity model (IDC) of cultural landscapes aimed at assessing how different levels of anthropogenic disturbance on ecosystems affect the capacity to host biodiversity depending on the land matrix heterogeneity. It is applied to the Mallorca Island, amidst the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot.Methods
The model uses the disturbance exerted when farmers alter the Net Primary Production through land-use change as well as when they remove a share of it (HANPP), together with Shannon–Wiener index (H′) of land-cover diversity. The model is tested with a twofold-scalar experimental design (1:50,000 and 1:5000) of a set of landscape units along three time points (1956, 1989, 2011). Species richness of breeding and wintering birds, taken as a biodiversity proxy, is used in an exploratory factor analysis.Results
The results clearly show that when intermediate levels of HANPP are performed within intermediate levels of complexity (H′) in landscape patterns, like agro-forest mosaics, great bird species richness and high socio-ecological resilience can be maintained. Yet, these complex-heterogeneous landscapes are currently vanishing due to industrial farm intensification, rural abandonment and urban sprawl.Conclusions
The results make apparent the usefulness of transferring the concept of intermediate disturbance-complexity interplay to cultural landscapes. Our spatial-explicit IDC model can be used as a tool for strategic environmental assessment of land-use planning.9.
Xenia K. Volk Johannes P. Gattringer Annette Otte Sarah Harvolk-Schöning 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(3):371-387
Context
Methods for measuring restoration success that include functional connectivity between species’ populations are rare in landscape ecology and restoration practices. We developed an approach that analyzes connectivity between populations of target species and their dispersal probabilities to assess restoration success based on easily accessible input data. Applying this method to landscape development scenarios can help optimize restoration planning.Objectives
We developed an assessment for restoration success and restoration planning based on functional connectivity between species’ populations and spatially explicit scenarios. The method was used in a case study to test its applicability.Methods
Based on data on available habitat, species’ occurrence and dispersal ranges, connectivity metrics and dispersal probabilities for target species are calculated using the software Conefor Sensinode. The metrics are calculated for scenarios that reflect possible changes in the landscape to provide a basis for future restoration planning. We applied this approach to floodplain meadows along the Upper Rhine for four plant species and three future scenarios.Results
In the case study, habitats of the target species were poorly connected. Peucedanum officinale and Sanguisorba officinalis were more successful in recolonizing new habitats than Iris spuria and Serratula tinctoria. The scenarios showed that restoration of species-rich grassland was beneficial for dispersal of the target species. As expected in the agriculturally dominated study area, restoration of former arable land significantly increased dispersal probabilities.Conclusions
In the case study, the developed approach was easily applicable and provided reasonable results. Its implementation will be helpful in decision-making for future restoration planning.10.
Jean-Pierre Rossi Jacques Garcia Alain Roques Jérôme Rousselet 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(2):243-254
Context
Various species of forest trees are commonly used for ornamental purposes and are therefore frequently found in nonforest ecosystems. They constitute an important component of the so-called trees outside forests (TOF). Not much is known, however, about the drivers of TOF spatial distribution either in urbanized or in agricultural landscapes since they are generally absent from forest inventories.Objective
The present study focused on the spatial distribution of TOF across agricultural landscapes and their potential role in the dispersal of a forest pest insect, the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa (PPM).Methods
All the TOF belonging to the genera Pinus, Cedrus and Pseudotsuga were considered as potential hosts and inventoried within a 22 × 22 km study window. We fitted a nonstationary Poisson process to the empirical data and used the distance to the nearest building as a covariate.Results
Both empirical and simulated data indicated that TOF associated to human artifacts/urbanized areas constituted the main source of landscape connectivity for the PPM in the open fields under study. Because they do not account for TOF, forest inventories dramatically underestimate landscape connectivity and provide an erroneous picture of the PPM habitat distribution.Conclusions
We conclude that TOF, especially the ornamental component, must be taken into account when it comes to understanding forest insect landscape dynamics or genetics. The omnipresence of TOF also suggests a potentially huge role in pest dispersal and invasive species expansion.11.
12.
Clémentine Azam Isabelle Le Viol Jean-François Julien Yves Bas Christian Kerbiriou 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(10):2471-2483
Context
Light pollution is a global change affecting a major proportion of global land surface. Although the impacts of Artificial Light At Night (ALAN) have been documented locally for many taxa, the extent of effect of ALAN at a landscape scale on biodiversity is unknown.Objectives
We characterized the landscape-scale impacts of ALAN on 4 insectivorous bat species Pipistrellus pipistrellus, Pipistrellus kuhlii, Eptesicus serotinus, Nyctalus leisleri, and compared the extent of their effects to other major land-use pressures.Methods
We used a French national-scale monitoring program recording bat activity among 2-km car transect surveys, and extracted landscape characteristics around transects with satellite and land cover layers. For each species, we performed multi-model averaging at 4 landscape scales (from 200 to 1000 m buffers around transects) to compare the relative effects of the average radiance, the proportion of impervious surface and the proportion of intensive agriculture.Results
For all species, ALAN had a stronger negative effect than impervious surface at the 4 landscape scales tested. This effect was weaker than the effect of intensive agriculture. The negative effect of ALAN was significant for P. pipistrellus, P. kuhlii and E. serotinus, but not for N. leisleri. The effect of impervious surface varied among species while intensive agriculture had a significant negative effect on the 4 species.Conclusion
Our results highlight the need to consider the impacts of ALAN on biodiversity in land-use planning and suggest that using only impervious surface as a proxy for urbanization may lead to underestimated impacts on biodiversity.13.
Pablo M. Vergara Luis O. Meneses Audrey A. Grez Madelaine S. Quiroz Gerardo E. Soto Christian G. Pérez-Hernández Paola A. Diaz Ingo J. Hahn Andrés Fierro 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(2):279-293
Context
Interactions between landscape-scale processes and fine-grained habitat heterogeneity are usually invoked to explain species occupancy in fragmented landscapes. In variegated landscapes, however, organisms face continuous variation in micro-habitat features, which makes necessary to consider ecologically meaningful estimates of habitat quality at different spatial scales.Objectives
We evaluated the spatial scales at which forest cover and tree quality make the greatest contribution to the occupancy of the long-horned beetle Microplophorus magellanicus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in a variegated forest landscape.Methods
We used averaged data of tree quality (as derived from remote sensing estimates of the decay stage of single trees) and spatially independent pheromone-baited traps to model the occurrence probability as a function of multiple cross-scale combinations between forest cover and tree quality (with scales ranging between 50 and 400 m).Results
Model support and performance increased monotonically with the increasing scale at which tree quality was measured. Forest cover was not significant, and did not exhibit scale-specific effects on the occurrence probability of M. magellanicus. The interactive effect between tree quality and forest cover was stronger than the independent (additive) effects of tree quality and particularly forest cover. Significant interactions included tree quality measured at spatial scales ≥200 m, but cross-scale interactions occurred only in four of the seven best-supported models.Conclusions
M. magellanicus respond to the high-quality trees available in the landscape rather than to the amount of forest per se. Conservation of viable metapopulations of M. magellanicus should consider the quality of trees at spatial scales >200 m.14.
Alexander G. Watts Santiago Saura Claire Jardine Patrick Leighton Lisa Werden Marie-Josée Fortin 《Landscape Ecology》2018,33(11):1925-1938
Context
In the ecology of Lyme disease emergence, it remains unclear to what extent spread of the tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) and the pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi) are dependent upon the dispersal of vertebrate hosts in spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Yet, empirical measure of these complex ecologically driven spread processes present conceptual and methodological challenges despite important public health implications.Objectives
To examine the relationship between landscape characteristics and tick-borne disease spread, we modeled the influence of landscape connectivity for a simplified vertebrate host community (white-footed mouse—Peromyscus leucopus, American robin—Turdus migratorius, white-tailed deer—Odocoileus virginianus) on the potential spread of the tick population compared to the pathogen in a spatially-structured landscape.Methods
We parameterized a hybrid demographic-dispersal connectivity model by combining a series of reported host dispersal and tick burden estimates with empirically-measured tick abundance and pathogen prevalence sampled from a Lyme-endemic island landscape in Thousand Islands National Park (Ontario, Canada) and simulated several tick- and pathogen-spread scenarios.Results
The extent of tick spread by mice [amount of reachable habitat (ARH)?=?18.0%] is considerably similar to that of robins (ARH?=?18.7%), while deer support the greatest tick spread extent (ARH?=?82.0%). Infected mice carrying ticks support the highest pathogen spread (ARH?=?19.8%). Short-distance pathogen spread and long-distance tick spread were facilitated by intermediate stepping stone habitat fragments.Conclusions
We provide evidence that host functional connectivity mediates tick spread differently than pathogen spread, and depends strongly on landscape configuration. Our study therefore emphasizes the importance of landscape spatial heterogeneity on the ecological processes that influence regional tick-borne disease spread.15.
Context
Conversion of landscapes is widely associated with loss of biodiversity. While there are several competing hypotheses for the local extinction of species in developed landscapes, experimental approaches are seldom applied to elucidating mechanisms.Objectives
In this study, we focus on the habitat degradation hypothesis and predict that poor quality of relictual wetlands in developed landscapes contributes to the absence of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica = Lithobates sylvaticus) by decreasing their performance.Methods
In a translocation experiment, we reared wood frog larvae within enclosures in seven ponds where they naturally occur and in five ponds in developed landscapes where they are absent. Premature pond drying precluded assessing performance in one present pond and one absent pond.Results
Absent ponds were surrounded by upland buffers dominated by developed land covers while ponds with wood frog breeding populations were surrounded primarily by intact forest. Ponds were largely similar in their attributes. Survival and growth rate did not differ between pond types. Development tended to be slightly more rapid in some absent ponds perhaps related to higher water temperatures.Conclusions
Despite the highly altered landscapes surrounding them, we find no evidence that absent wetlands provide inferior habitat for wood frog larval recruitment. Performance in absent ponds matched or exceeded that observed in present ponds implying that absence of this species may stem from influences mediated by the upland landscape. These results provide a caution to the typically unexamined presumption that relictual habitats in developed landscapes are degraded in their utility for wildlife.16.
17.
Rachel A. Loehman Robert E. Keane Lisa M. Holsinger Zhiwei Wu 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1447-1459
Context
Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.Objectives
We used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.Methods
We assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.Results
Interacting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.Conclusions
Understanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.18.
Katherine A. Zeller Kevin McGarigal Samuel A. Cushman Paul Beier T. Winston Vickers Walter M. Boyce 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(4):835-855
Context
The definition of the geospatial landscape is the underlying basis for species-habitat models, yet sensitivity of habitat use inference, predicted probability surfaces, and connectivity models to landscape definition has received little attention.Objectives
We evaluated the sensitivity of resource selection and connectivity models to four landscape definition choices including (1) the type of geospatial layers used, (2) layer source, (3) thematic resolution, and (4) spatial grain.Methods
We used GPS telemetry data from pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California to create multi-scale path selection function models (PathSFs) across landscapes with 2500 unique landscape definitions. To create the landscape definitions, we identified seven geospatial layers that have been shown to influence puma habitat use. We then varied the number, sources, spatial grain, and thematic resolutions of these layers to create our suite of plausible landscape definitions. We assessed how PathSF model performance (based on AIC) was affected by landscape definition and examined variability among the predicted probability of movement surfaces, connectivity models, and road crossing locations.Results
We found model performance was extremely sensitive to landscape definition and identified only seven top models out of our suite of definitions (<1%). Spatial grain and the number of geospatial layers selected for a landscape definition significantly affected model performance measures, with finer grains and greater numbers of layers increasing model performance.Conclusions
Given the sensitivity of habitat use inference, predicted probability surfaces, and connectivity models to landscape definition, out results indicate the need for increased attention to landscape definition in future studies.19.
Anantha M. Prasad Louis R. Iverson Stephen N. Matthews Matthew P. Peters 《Landscape Ecology》2016,31(9):2187-2204
Context
No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates—hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns.Objective
A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model—DISTRIB II, a species colonization model—SHIFT, and knowledge-based scoring system—MODFACs, to illustrate a decision support framework.Methods
Using shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) as examples, we project suitable habitats under two future climate change scenarios (harsh, Hadley RCP8.5 and mild CCSM RCP4.5 at ~2100) at a resolution of 10 km and assess the colonization likelihood of the projected suitable habitats at a 1 km resolution; and score biological and disturbance factors for interpreting modeled outcomes.Results
Shortleaf pine shows increased habitat northward by 2100, especially under the harsh scenario of climate change, and with higher possibility of natural migration confined to a narrow region close to the current species range boundary. Sugar maple shows decreased habitat and has negligible possibility of migration within the US due to a large portion of its range being north of the US border. Combination of suitable habitats with colonization likelihoods also allows for identification of potential locations appropriate for assisted migration, should that be deemed feasible.Conclusion
The combination of these multiple components using diverse approaches leads to tools and products that may help managers make management decisions in the face of a changing climate.20.
Lia Montti Verónica Piriz Carrillo Jorgelina Gutiérrez-Angonese N. Ignacio Gasparri Roxana Aragón H. Ricardo Grau 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(11):2167-2185