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1.
Food security is a high priority issue on the Chinese political agenda. China’s food security is challenged by several anthropogenic, sociopolitical and policy factors, including: population growth; urbanization and industrialization; land use changes and water scarcity; income growth and nutritional transition; and turbulence in global energy and food markets. Sustained growth in agricultural productivity and stable relations with global food suppliers are the twin anchors of food security. Shortfalls in domestic food production can take their toll on international food markets. Turbulence in global energy markets can affect food prices and supply costs, affecting food security and poverty. Policy safeguards are needed to shield food supply against such forces. China must make unremitting policy responses to address the loss of its fertile land for true progress towards the goal of national food security, by investing in infrastructure such as irrigation, drainage, storage, transport, and agricultural research and institutional reforms such as tenure security and land market liberalization. The links between water and other development-related sectors such as population, energy, food, and environment, and the interactions among them require reckoning, as they together will determine future food security and poverty reduction in China. Climate change is creating a new level of uncertainty in water governance, requiring accelerated research to avoid water-related stresses. 相似文献
2.
Investing in water for food, ecosystems, and livelihoods: An overview of the comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Charlotte de Fraiture David Molden Dennis Wichelns 《Agricultural Water Management》2010,97(4):495-501
The authors of the recently completed Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (CA) concluded that there are sufficient water resources to produce food for a growing population but that trends in consumption, production and environmental patterns, if continued, will lead to water crises in many parts of the world. Only if we act to improve water use will we meet the acute fresh water challenge. Recent spikes in food prices, partially caused by the increasing demand for agricultural products in non-food uses, underline the urgent need to invest in agricultural production, of which water management is a crucial part. The world experienced similar pressure on per capita food supplies and food prices in the 1960s and 1970s, but the challenges now are different than those we experienced 50 years ago. The world's population is substantially larger, there are many more people living in poverty, and the costs of many agricultural inputs are much higher. The current situation and the long-term outlook require a fresh look at approaches that combine different elements such as the importance of access to water for the poor, providing multiple ecosystem services, rainwater management, adapting irrigation to new needs, enhancing water productivity, and promoting the use of low-quality water in agriculture. This special issue highlights the analysis behind a number of policy options identified by the CA, a five-year multi-disciplinary research program involving 700 scientists. This introductory article sets the background and context of this special issue, introduces the key recommendations from the CA and summarizes the papers in this issue. 相似文献
3.
Growing global population figures and per-capita incomes imply an increase in food demand and pressure to expand agricultural land. Agricultural expansion into natural ecosystems affects biodiversity and leads to substantial carbon dioxide emissions.Considerable attention has been paid to prospects for increasing food availability, and limiting agricultural expansion, through higher yields on cropland. In contrast, prospects for efficiency improvements in the entire food-chain and dietary changes toward less land-demanding food have not been explored as extensively. In this study, we present model-based scenarios of global agricultural land use in 2030, as a basis for investigating the potential for land-minimized growth of world food supply through: (i) faster growth in feed-to-food efficiency in animal food production; (ii) decreased food wastage; and (iii) dietary changes in favor of vegetable food and less land-demanding meat. The scenarios are based in part on projections of global food agriculture for 2030 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO. The scenario calculations were carried out by means of a physical model of the global food and agriculture system that calculates the land area and crops/pasture production necessary to provide for a given level of food consumption.In the reference scenario - developed to represent the FAO projections - global agricultural area expands from the current 5.1 billion ha to 5.4 billion ha in 2030. In the faster-yet-feasible livestock productivity growth scenario, global agricultural land use decreases to 4.8 billion ha. In a third scenario, combining the higher productivity growth with a substitution of pork and/or poultry for 20% of ruminant meat, land use drops further, to 4.4 billion ha. In a fourth scenario, applied mainly to high-income regions, that assumes a minor transition towards vegetarian food (25% decrease in meat consumption) and a somewhat lower food wastage rate, land use in these regions decreases further, by about 15%. 相似文献
4.
Farm-level perspectives regarding irrigation water prices in the Tulkarm district, Palestine 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Maher O. Abu-Madi 《Agricultural Water Management》2009,96(9):1344-1350
Agriculture consumes about 70% of water available in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. Domestic and industrial users utilize 30% of the water supply. Water resource managers are considering the policy of reallocating a portion of the water supply from agriculture to other uses. It is believed that increasing irrigation water prices could influence water consumption and thus make water available for non-agricultural (more economic) uses. This paper examines the impacts of water pricing on agricultural water consumption and farming profitability and provides some guidelines for policy makers regarding water pricing as a tool to manage scarce water resources. We estimate a regression model describing agricultural water consumption as a function of water prices, irrigated land area, farm income, and irrigation frequency, using data collected in a survey of about 150 farmers in the Tulkarm district. We conclude that irrigation water prices are perceived as high and comprise a large portion of total farming expenses. Therefore, attempts to increase irrigation water prices in the Tulkarm district might jeopardize farming feasibility and might have substantial impacts on agricultural water consumption. Nevertheless, many farmers would continue farming even if the water prices were increased beyond their willingness to pay threshold. 相似文献
5.
随着我国人口数量不断增长,对粮食的需求量在不断上升,加之我国城市化与工业化的迅速发展,致使水资源相对缺乏,直接影响我国经济发展。在农业灌溉方面,低功耗节水灌溉系统的设计,能够有效节约水资源,提高水资源利用效率。以计算机技术为基础,对农业节水灌溉系统的软硬件以及控制系统进行了设计。 相似文献
6.
《Agricultural Systems》2001,68(3):233-252
This paper introduces a linear programming optimization model for analyzing inter-seasonal allocation of irrigation water in quantities and qualities and their impact on agricultural production and income. The SAWAS model is a developed version of the Agricultural Sub-Model (AGSM). In this research, we stress water scarcity as a problem that arises when water is not found in proper quantity and quality at the appropriate place and time. The model is designed to serve as a decision-making tool for planners of agricultural production on both the district and the regional level. It generates an optimal mix of water-demanding activities that maximizes the net agricultural income of the districts and gives the water demands under various prices. It also provides the planner with tools to carry out ‘what-if’ experiments and to generate optimal water demand curves. A principal feature of SAWAS is the use of demand and the benefits from water together with costs and optimization within the agricultural sector to specify the optimal usage of different water qualities. Hence the agricultural planner can use the outputs of SAWAS in order to bridge the gap between the limited water resources and the increased agricultural production in an area that suffers from severe water scarcity. The paper applies the SAWAS model to the Jordan Valley in Jordan. 相似文献
7.
农业保险作为分散农业风险、保障农业生产的有效手段,其发展至关重要。基于2009—2019年我国农业保险的相关数据,选取农业保险保费收入、农业保险赔款及给付、农业从业人员人均农业保险费额3个特征序列指标,利用灰色关联分析方法研究农业保险发展的影响因素,对主要影响因素进行排序。结果表明:不管是对于农业保险保费收入、农业保险赔款及给付还是农业从业人员人均农业保险费额,政府农林水财政支出都是最主要影响因素,其灰色关联度排在第1位。二三产业产值、GDP对农业保险的灰色关联度分别排在第2、3位,它们对农业保险的影响主要体现在农民的收入水平。林业产值、渔业产值、农业产值、农林牧渔业产值、牧业产值对农业保险均有一定影响,但影响不是很大。 相似文献
8.
《Agricultural Systems》2003,76(3):841-861
The areas of agricultural land on this globe that in the future possibly are available for biomass production for energy use and the potential global production of biomass were calculated. These available land areas increased when the global potential for food production (dependent on agricultural system and available land areas for agriculture) became higher in comparison to the global food requirement (dependent on population growth and mean consumption pattern). This study shows that 55% of the present agricultural land area at the global scale is needed for food production in the future (i.e. year 2050), if a high external input system of agriculture is applied. The remaining 45% can be used for other purposes, such as biomass production. If all potentially suitable land areas would be cultivated, the global potential for biomass production becomes about two times as large. If a low external input system is applied at the global scale for food production, however, no land area is available for biomass production. 相似文献
9.
为探究农业机械化发展与农民增收之间的关系,以吉林省1998—2018年的时间序列数据为例,通过灰色关联分析和构建VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分别探讨农业机械化与农民增收之间的关系。结果表明:农业机械化发展与农民人均纯收入之间的灰色关联度为0.8345,关系比较密切;吉林省农业机械化发展与农民人均纯收入之间存在长期均衡关系。从长期来看,农业机械总动力每增加1%,农民人均纯收入会上涨1.4561%;吉林省农业机械化发展与农民人均纯收入之间存在双向因果关系,两者之间相互影响,而且农业机械化发展对农民人均纯收入增长的影响程度更大。最后,为更好地促进吉林省农业机械化发展提出相关建议。 相似文献
10.
《Agricultural Systems》1998,58(3):309-330
To support the different phases of a policy making process aimed at changing land use, distinct types of land use studies are required. This paper focuses on exploratory land use studies and their role in the phase of formulating strategic policy objectives. Exploratory land use studies contribute to a transparent discussion on policy objectives by showing ultimate technical possibilities and consequences of imposing different priorities to agro-technical, food security, socio-economic and environmental objectives. A methodology is presented in which science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives under given values of exogenous variables (e.g. regarding population growth and requirements for agricultural produce). Land use scenarios are generated showing consequences of different priorities for objectives by using natural resources and technical possibilities in different ways. Applications of such an approach are given for the global, regional and farm level, each addressing specific questions and target groups. The paper focuses on the type of results these studies produce and their role in the societal and political debate on strategic land use policy and planning. It is concluded that if exploratory land use studies are carried out in true interaction with target groups, they may well contribute to the debate and learning on sustainable land use options and a purposeful identification of effective policy instruments in a next phase of the policy making process. 相似文献
11.
为了探讨变化环境对农业水资源供需平衡的影响,运用系统动力学软件Vensim-Dss建立了农业水资源供需平衡的系统动力学模型,综合考虑社会经济发展和气候变化情景,仿真模拟了变化环境下农业供、需水量及缺水量的变化情况.石羊河流域模拟结果表明:未来农业供水量和需水量受气候变化的影响程度不同,但 2033年以后,农业供水量在不同气候变化情景下的变化趋势相同;不同行政区农业水资源系统对气候变化的响应存在明显差异,金昌市A2气候情境缺水率大于B2情景,在2029年、2038年缺水率分别达到32.0%,28.6%, B2情境下,2021年开始出现轻度缺水,中度缺水年仅出现在2023年和2039年,缺水率分别为30.7%,30.5%;武威市A2气候情境下缺水率小于B2情景,仅2038年为中度缺水,缺水率为24.9%,B2气候情景中度缺水年较多,2023年缺水率最大,达到33.2%.研究结果可以对变化环境下区域用水规划和农业发展规划提供指导. 相似文献
12.
《Agricultural Water Management》2003,62(3):165-185
Agriculture commands more water than any other activity on this planet. Although the total amount of water made available by the hydrologic cycle is enough to provide the world’s current population with adequate freshwater, most of this water is concentrated in specific regions, leaving other areas water-deficient. Because of the uneven distribution of water resources and population densities worldwide, water demands already exceed supplies in nearly 80 countries with more than 40% population of the world. Consequent to future population increase in these countries, supplies of good-quality irrigation water will further decrease due to increased municipal–industrial–agricultural competition. These facts reveal that the time has come for the sustainable management of available water resources based on global, regional, and site-specific strategic options: (1) understanding the concept of ‘virtual water’ and potential use of this water as a global solution to regional deficits, i.e. the water-short countries may import a portion of food crops or other commodities that require more water and export those that need less water in production; (2) improvement in current efficiencies of agricultural water use and conservation, both in the rain-fed and irrigated agriculture, i.e. to produce more with the existing resources with minimum deterioration of land and water resources; (3) use of efficient, economic, and environmentally acceptable methods for the amelioration of polluted waters and degraded soils, and (4) re-use of saline and/or sodic drainage waters via cyclic, blended, or sequential strategies for crop production systems, wherever possible and practical. We believe that these strategies will serve as the four pillars of integrated agricultural water management and their suitable combinations will be the key to future agricultural and economic growth and social wealth, particularly in regions that are deficient in freshwater supplies and are expected to become more deficient in future. 相似文献
13.
Due to urban growth, some agricultural lands have been replaced by residential, municipal, and industrial areas. In some cases the remaining agricultural land will not have enough water because of transfers from agriculture to M&I (municipal and industrial) users. Therefore, in many places, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, the use of treated wastewater as a reliable source of irrigation water has already been, or will be, considered in the future. Due to its unique characteristics, this new resource has many challenges that cannot be ignored, such as health issues, water quality, and long- and short-term effects on soils and crops. The study described herein considered the development of a new GIS-based model for planning and managing the reuse of treated wastewater for the irrigation of agricultural and green lands, considering various factors such as population and urban growth. The model is composed of several different modules, including an urban growth model. These modules are designed to help in the decision-making process for allocations of water resources to agricultural areas, considering factors such as crop types, crop pattern, water salinity, soil characteristics, pumping and conveyance costs, and also by comparing different management scenarios. Appropriate crops that can be grown with a specific water salinity and soil characteristics, proper water resources for each farm (according to pumping and conveyance costs, and analysis of water demand, and water supply) can be determined through the application of this model. The model can also rank agricultural areas and open spaces in and near an urban area according to their suitability for irrigated agriculture. 相似文献
14.
The sluggish increase in the area productivity of staple crops is a major factor causing increased dependence of African countries on food imports. The increased use of mineral fertiliser may dramatically improve the food balance of many countries and result in lower food prices, higher food supply and consumption, and improved food security and nutritional status. In Benin, West Africa, political measures to improve farmers’ access to fertiliser are biased in favour of cotton production. This article simulates the impact of universal tax exemptions for fertiliser use on crop yields, food balances, and the use of land resources for the most important staple crops in Benin using a crop growth model and an agricultural sector model. The simulation results indicate that tax exemptions on fertiliser use could have positive effects on physical productivity and would increase food security until 2025 as compared to a baseline scenario. At the same time, the pressure on land resources would not be aggravated, so that better access to fertiliser may help to curb excessive cropland expansion in Benin. 相似文献
15.
在全球气候变暖和淡水资源短缺背景下,日照市作为滨海城市典型代表,实现农业水资源的高效利用是贯彻生态文明建设、实现可持续发展的必由之路。结合日照市气象、水资源等条件,针对农田水利发展、土地利用等情况,探讨生态文明视角下日照地区实现农田水资源高效利用的思路。研究表明:日照市农业人口、耕地分布表现出地域性差异,旱地面积比例较大,蓄水工程相对缺乏,严重制约着农业发展,影响着生态文明建设。合理有效地进行农田水利工程建设与维护、水土保持工作和节水灌溉技术的引进,可全面促进资源合理利用和农业多功能开发,为滨海地区农业水资源高效利用提供借鉴。 相似文献
16.
《Agricultural Systems》1999,61(1):45-56
The paper introduces an optimizing linear model for analysing agricultural production under various water quantities, qualities, timing, prices and pricing policies. The model is designed to serve as a decision-making tool for planners of agricultural production on district and national levels. The output solutions provide the optimal mix of water-consuming activities to maximize the net income of the agricultural production of the districts and the water demands under various prices. It also provides the user with procedures to carry out ‘if–then’ sensitivity and scenario analyses and to generate optimal water demand curves. The paper presents the formulation of the model, indicating and analysing problems of linearity and scaling, the steps undertaken to examine and verify it, optimal water demand curves for eight districts in Israel (separately and as an integrated unit) and calculated estimates of water demand elasticity. 相似文献
17.
Satisfying future water demands for agriculture 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The global demand for water in agriculture will increase over time with increasing population, rising incomes, and changes in dietary preferences. Increasing demands for water by industrial and urban users, and water for the environment will intensify competition. At the same time, water scarcity is increasing in several important agricultural areas.We explore several pathways for ensuring that sufficient food is produced in the future, while also protecting the environment and reducing poverty. We examine four sets of scenarios that vary in their focus on investments in rainfed agriculture and irrigation, and the role of international trade in adjusting for national disparities in water endowments. Rainfed agriculture holds considerable potential but requires adequate mechanisms to reduce inherent risks. Irrigation expansion is warranted in places where water infrastructure is underinvested such as sub-Saharan Africa. In South Asia the scope for improving irrigation performance and water productivity is high. International trade can help alleviate water problems in water-scarce areas, subject to economic and political considerations. We examine also a regionally optimized scenario that combines investments in rainfed and irrigated agriculture with strategic trade decisions. Compared to ‘business as usual’, this scenario reduces the amount of additional water required to meet food demands by 2050 by 80%. Some of that water could be made available for the environment and other sectors. We conclude that there are sufficient land and water resources available to satisfy global food demands during the next 50 years, but only if water is managed more effectively in agriculture. 相似文献
18.
Jens Jakobsen Kjeld Rasmussen Stephen Leisz Rikke Folving Nguyen Vinh Quang 《Agricultural Systems》2007
The paper documents how the implementation of the land tenure policy of the Vietnamese government has affected the agricultural system, livelihood strategies and food self-sufficiency of Thai farmers in a remote upland village, Que, in Nghe An Province, North Central Vietnam. It is shown that the enforcement of restrictions on the area under swidden agriculture has resulted in a strong reduction of swidden agriculture production and shortened fallow periods, not compensated for by the slow increase in paddy rice production. It is suggested that while the changes imposed on land use certainly lead to an increase in forest cover, it is likely that the shortened fallow cycle on the land allocated to swiddening will lead to declining yields and replacement of forest fallow by bush and grass fallow, and thus to decreases in labour productivity. It is discussed whether there are options open to farmers for changing their portfolio of income generating activities in order to maintain and improve food self-sufficiency, income and living conditions. Finally, new trends in Vietnamese land tenure policy are outlined, and their possible implications discussed. 相似文献
19.
21世纪中国水利面临的十大挑战 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
张岳 《中国农村水利水电》2000,(1):25-28
从对历史的回顾和对现状的分析,预测中国水利在２１世纪将面临一系列挑战。挑战来自以下１０个方面,即人口的增长,经济的快速增长、水的需求增长、粮食需求的增长、水利工程失修、北方水短缺、科技和管理水平低、面临社会主义市场经济、管理体制的分割、全球气候的变化等都会给水利工作带来很多问题,２１世纪的中国水利必须解决这些问题,才能保证水资源的可持续利用,满足社会经济可持续发展的需要。 相似文献