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1.
Emulating natural forest disturbance is an increasingly popular forest management paradigm that is considered a means of achieving forest sustainability. Adopting this goal requires a sound understanding of natural disturbances at scales that correspond to management policies and strategies. In boreal forest landscapes driven by periodic stand-replacing fires this requires knowledge of fire regime characteristics, especially their spatial and temporal variability as well as stochasticity. The major goal of this study was to demonstrate the utility of fire regime simulation modeling to explore the variability of fire regime characteristics, with respect to formulating and assessing forest management strategies. We conducted a modeling experiment in a boreal forest landscape of northwestern Ontario, Canada, to examine its long-term fire regime in relation to forest policies on harvest size distribution. We used BFOLDS, a spatially explicit fire regime model that simulates individual fire events mechanistically in response to fire weather, fuel patterns, and terrain. The fire regimes in four large eco-regions were modeled for a 200-year period under three fire-weather (cold, normal, and warm) scenarios, with replications. We found that fire size distribution in all eco-regions followed power law under all weather scenarios, but their slopes and intercepts varied among eco-regions and fire weather scenarios. Warming fire weather increased burn rates and fire numbers in all eco-regions, albeit to different degrees. Overall, the variability among eco-regions was higher than the variability among fire weather scenarios, and among replicates. Comparisons of simulated fire size classes with those from an 86-year long fire history showed that empirical data cannot capture the variability that could be revealed by simulation modeling. We also show that fire size distribution is spatially heterogeneous within eco-regions, and provide several suggestions for forest policy directions with respect to forest harvest size distributions and harvest rates, based on the variability of fire regime characteristics. An assessment of present forest policies of emulating natural disturbances that guide forest harvest sizes showed that these are incongruent with simulated fire size distributions under all scenarios with one exception. Overall, this study illustrates the value of scenario simulation modeling to explore and quantify the variability of forest fire regime, for use in forest policies and strategies that attempt to emulate natural disturbance.  相似文献   

2.
Forest management has been criticised in the last 20 years for its negative impact on the native species, structures and functions of the forest. Of many possible alternatives proposed to minimize these effects, the functional zoning (or TRIAD) approach is gaining popularity in North America. The goal of this approach is to minimize the negative environmental impacts of forestry while maintain timber supply by dividing the forest into three broad land-use zones: (1) conservation, (2) ecosystem management, and (3) wood production. In this study, we used a spatially explicit landscape model to simulate the effects of fire and six different forest management scenarios on a boreal mixedwood forest management unit in central Quebec. The management scenarios examined included the current practices scenario, a scenario proposed by the provincial government, and four TRIAD scenarios varying in the amount of forest allocated to each of the three zones. For each scenario, we examined the harvest volume, percentage old-growth forest or old forest managed to favour old-growth attributes, and effective mesh size of forest patches by 20-year age classes. With more area set aside for conservation and high-retention partial cut harvesting techniques designed to maintain the attributes of old-growth stands, all TRIAD scenarios resulted in higher percentages of stands with old-growth attributes than the current practices scenario and the government proposed scenario, and two of the four TRIAD scenarios also resulted in higher harvest volume over the long term. All forest management scenarios resulted in significantly lower effective mesh size than the fire-only scenario, but this difference was not as pronounced for the four TRIAD scenarios as for the current practice and government proposed scenarios. We conclude that the TRIAD approach has the potential to minimize some of the negative impacts of forestry on the landscape, while maintaining timber supply over the long term.  相似文献   

3.
The threat of climate change is now recognized as an imminent issue at the forefront of the forest sector. Incorporating adaptation to climate change into forest management will be vital in the continual and sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to investigate climate change adaptation in forest management using the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II. The study area was comprised of 14,000 ha of forested watersheds in central Nova Scotia, Canada, managed by Halifax Water, the municipal water utility. Simulated climate change adaptation was directed towards three components of timber harvesting: the canopy-opening size of harvests, the age of harvested trees within a stand, and the species composition of harvested trees within a stand. These three adaptation treatments were simulated singly and in combination with each other in the modeling experiment. The timber supply was found to benefit from climate change in the absence of any adaptation treatment, though there was a loss of target tree species and old growth forest. In the age treatment, all trees in a harvested stand at or below the age of sexual maturity were exempt from harvesting. This was done to promote more-rapid succession to climax forest communities typical of the study area. It was the most effective in maintaining the timber supply, but least effective in promoting resistance to climate change at the prescribed harvest intensity. In the composition treatment, individual tree species were selected for harvest based on their response to climate change in previous research and on management values at Halifax Water to progressively facilitate forest transition under the altered climate. This proved the most effective treatment for maximizing forest age and old-growth area and for promoting stands composed of climatically suited target species. The size treatment was aimed towards building stand complexity and resilience to climate change, and was the most influential treatment on the response of timber supply, forest age, and forest composition to timber harvest when it was combined with other treatments. The combination of all three adaptation treatments yielded an adequate representation of target species and old forest without overly diminishing the timber supply, and was therefore the most effective in minimizing the trade-offs between management values and objectives. These findings support a diverse and multi-faceted approach to climate change adaptation.  相似文献   

4.
Forest management shapes landscape patterns, and these patterns often differ significantly from those typical for natural disturbance regimes. This may affect wildlife habitat and other aspects of ecosystem function. Our objective was to examine the effects of different forest management decisions on landscape pattern in a fire adapted ecosystem. We used a factorial design experiment in LANDIS (a forest landscape simulation model) to test the effects of: (a) cut unit size, (b) minimum harvest age and (c) target species for management. Our study area was the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin, an area where fire suppression has caused a lack of large open areas important for wildlife. Our results show that all three management choices under investigation (cut unit size, minimum harvest age and target species for management) have strong effects on forest composition and landscape patterns. Cut unit size is the most important factor influencing landscape pattern, followed by target species for management (either jack pine or red pine) and then minimum harvest age. Open areas are more abundant, and their average size is larger, when cut units are larger, target species is jack pine, and minimum harvest age is lower. Such information can assist forest managers to relate stand level management decision to landscape patterns.  相似文献   

5.
We assessed the effectiveness of alternative forest management strategies for maintaining American martens (Martes americana) in a sub-boreal landscape subject to an extensive mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak, associated salvage logging, and climate change in north-central British Columbia, Canada. We structured the analysis in a Bayesian network (BN) meta-model that incorporated the results of spatially explicit modelling of landscape conditions (natural and logging disturbance, habitat quality, number of potential territories, and connectedness of territories) with analytical population modelling. The BN meta-model was then used to examine habitat and population size responses (adult females only are presented) to management scenarios, in the context of uncertainty of model parameters, management objectives, and climate change. Status quo management is dominantly clear-cutting with 3–20% of each harvest unit retained as mature patches, with reforestation by planting in the remainder. Management options we examined were: (1) the status quo, (2) varying the total annual timber harvest on the landscape (100%, 80% or 50% of current long-term sustained yield estimates), (3) the protection of understory trees during logging, and (4) 30–70% retention of overstory (partial cutting in distinct patches <1 ha in size) in each harvest unit, for 33% or 50% of the annual timber harvest. We found that marten habitat and population size declined substantively with the beetle outbreak and associated salvage cutting. The choice of management strategy then had a long-term effect on the potential for marten recovery after the beetle outbreak. Partial cutting scenarios had the greatest average long-term marten population levels, followed in order by reduced harvest rates, understory protection, and the status quo. Management scenarios with the best chance of meeting conservation goals without over-protecting habitat (and thus unnecessarily constraining timber management) varied with the population objective chosen. The choice of management strategy will depend on the weighting of marten outcomes against the economic desirability of timber harvest strategies, willingness to gamble on climate change, and the time-frame of interest.  相似文献   

6.
Euro-American settlement of the Inland West has altered forest and woodland landscapes, species composition, disturbance regimes, and resource conditions. Public concern over the loss of selected species and unique habitats (e.g., old-growth) has caused us to neglect the more pervasive problem of declining ecosystem health. Population explosions of trees, exotic weed species, insects, diseases, and humans are stressing natural systems. In particular, fire exclusion, grazing, and timber harvest have created anomalous ecosystem structures, landscape patterns, and disturbance regimes that are not consistent with the evolutionary history of the indigenous biota. Continuation of historical trends of climate change, modified atmospheric chemistry, tree density increases, and catastrophic disturbances seems certain. However, ecosystem management strategies including the initiation of management experiments can facilitate the adaptation of both social and ecological systems to these anticipated changes. A fairly narrow window of opportunity-perhaps 15-30 years-exists for land managers to implement ecological restoration treatments.  相似文献   

7.
Successful management of forest fire risk in the Northeastern China boreal forest ecosystem often involves trade-offs between fire dynamics, fire hazard reduction, and fiscal input. We used the LANDIS model to study the effects of alternative fuel reduction strategies on fire dynamics and analyzed cost effectiveness for each fuel reduction strategy based on cost–benefit theory. Five levels of fuel treatment area (2, 4, 6, 8, and 10% for each decade) and two fuel treatment types (prescribed burning [PB] and mechanical treatments in combination with prescribed fire [PR]) under current fire suppression simulated by LANDIS were compared in a 5 × 2 factorial design over a 300-year period. The results showed that PR scenarios are more effective at reducing the occurrence and burn area of catastrophic fires than PB scenarios. In addition, area burned by high intensity fire can be tremendously reduced by increasing low intensity fires with a higher level of treatment area under the various PR scenarios. The cost effectiveness of alternative fuel reduction strategies is strongly dependent on treatment area. In general, PB scenarios will be more cost effective in larger treatment areas and PR scenarios in smaller. We recommend mechanical treatments in combination with prescribed fire, with 4% of landscape treated in each decade (PR04) to be the optimal fuel reduction strategy in the study area based on risk control and cost efficiency analysis. However, the most challenging work in China is to make local forest policy makers and land managers accept the ecological function of fire on forest ecosystems.  相似文献   

8.
Remote sensing observations over areas of the former Soviet Union suggest that there may be important ongoing influences on forested landscapes resulting from divergent land use and forest management associated with the Soviet versus post-Soviet eras. As the Russian Federation implements its new Forest Code and associated regulations, knowledge of existing forest patterns and trends, plus the development of methods with which to understand the landscape-level influence of different forest management strategies is increasingly important. We developed spatial–temporal models and projections of forest patterns and trends over Soviet and early post-Soviet forest management eras for a study site in the Lake Baikal region in southern Siberia. We used Landsat-derived land-cover data, logistic regressions, and Markov and cellular automata methods (CA–Markov) to characterize patterns and trends 1975–1989 and 1990–2001, and to develop predictive scenarios through 2013. Relationships of forest types (Conifer, Mixed, Deciduous) and Agriculture to other explanatory environmental variables indicated mostly consistent forest–environment relationships, but some different spatial relationships between eras were found for Cut and Regeneration disturbance types. Landscape proportional trends showed greater differences between eras. Cut proportions observed via Landsat in 2001 were approximately 74% lower, and the area of Conifer observed was approximately 14% higher, than modeled proportions predicted for 2001 using 1975–1989 Soviet era transition rates. The proportion of Cut projected for 2013 was about 80% lower when based on early post-Soviet era probabilities. Overall, modeled results indicate that should early post-Soviet trends continue, low rates of logging, some agricultural abandonment, re-growing forests especially near access routes, increases in deciduous cover, along with continued or increased fire events in mixed and conifer forests will define the landscape. Should forest management change, for example to Soviet era rates and patterns of harvest, different outcomes are projected. More broadly, results highlight the real and prospective effects that divergent management strategies can have on forested landscapes, and demonstrate that land-cover data combined with emerging spatial–temporal modeling methods provide an approach to understand and project the complex and ongoing influences associated with changing forest management at landscape scales.  相似文献   

9.
Regional conservation planning frequently relies on general assumptions about historical disturbance regimes to inform decisions about landscape restoration, reserve allocations, and landscape management. Spatially explicit simulations of landscape dynamics provide quantitative estimates of landscape structure and allow for the testing of alternative scenarios. We used a landscape fire succession model to estimate the historical range of variability of vegetation and fire in a dry forest landscape (size ca. 7900 km2) where the present-day risk of high severity fire threatens the persistence of older closed canopy forest which may serve as Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat. Our results indicated that historically, older forest may have comprised the largest percentage of the landscape (∼35%), followed by early successional forest (∼25%), with about 9% of the landscape in a closed canopy older forest condition. The amount and condition of older forest varied by potential vegetation type and land use allocation type. Vegetation successional stages had fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in patch characteristics, with older forest tending to have the largest patch sizes among the successional stages. Increasing fire severities posed a greater risk to Northern Spotted Owl habitat than increasing fire sizes or frequencies under historical fire regimes. Improved understanding of historical landscape-specific fire and vegetation conditions and their variability can assist forest managers to promote landscape resilience and increases of older forest, in dry forests with restricted amounts of habitat for sensitive species.  相似文献   

10.

Context

Understanding the range of possible climate change impacts on forests and the interactions between them is vital to sustainable forest management.

Aims

We examine whether the combined influence of climate change and timber harvest will affect tree species distribution and productivity beyond predictions based on climate alone.

Methods

We used the landscape disturbance model LANDIS-II to simulate two climate and two harvest scenarios in 14,000 ha of managed watersheds.

Results

The elevated temperature led to a decline in the abundance of boreal species and a substantial increase in some temperate and pioneer species. Importantly, the interaction of climate change and timber harvest yielded changes in the distribution of some species that would not be expected based on climate alone. Conversely, some late-successional species exhibited resistance to climate-driven changes in their distribution. Climate change caused an increase in forest productivity when harvest was simulated, but a decrease in no-harvest scenarios. A time lag in forest response was likely responsible for this decrease in the absence of widespread mortality.

Conclusions

The finding that disturbance may drive the range expansion of early-successional broadleaved species and cause a decline of red spruce has implications for forest community associations, as well as for forest management where conifers are favoured for pulp production.  相似文献   

11.
Understanding both historic and current fire regimes is indispensable to sustainable forest landscape management. In this paper, we use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model, LANDIS, to simulate historic and current fire regimes in the Great Xing’an Mountains, in northeastern China. We analyzed fire frequency, fire size, fire intensity, and spatial pattern of burnt patches. Our simulated results show that fire frequency under the current fire scenario is lower than under the historic fire scenario; total area burnt is larger with lower fire intensity under the historic fire scenario, and smaller with higher fire intensity under the current fire scenario. We also found most areas were burned by high intensity fires under the current fire scenario, but by low to moderate fires under the historic fire scenario. Burnt patches exhibit a different pattern between the two simulation scenarios. Large patches burnt by high intensity class fires dominate the landscape under the current fire scenario, and under historic fire scenario, patches burnt by low to moderate fire intensity fires have relatively larger size than those burnt by high intensity fires. Based on these simulated results, we suggest that prescribed burning or coarse woody debris reduction should be incorporated into forest management plans in this region, especially on north-facing slopes. Tree planting may be a better management option on these severely burned areas whereas prescribed burning after small area selective cutting, retaining dispersed seed trees, may be a sound forest management alternative in areas except for the severely burned patches.  相似文献   

12.
Vast areas of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) forest in the western United States have become unnaturally dense because of relatively recent land management practices that include fire suppression and livestock grazing. In many areas, thinning treatments can re-establish the natural ecological processes and help restore ecosystem structure and function. Precipitous global climate change has focused attention on the carbon storage in forests. An unintended consequence of fire suppression has been the increased storage of carbon in ponderosa stands. Thinning treatments reduce standing carbon stocks while releasing carbon through the combustion of fuel in logging machinery, burning slash, and the decay of logging slash and wood products. These reductions and releases of stored carbon must be compared to the risk of catastrophic fire burning through the stand and releasing large quantities of carbon to the atmosphere to more fully understand the costs and benefits – in carbon terms – of forest restoration strategies.  相似文献   

13.
Modeling fire susceptibility in west central Alberta, Canada   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Strategic modification of forest vegetation has become increasingly popular as one of the few preemptive activities that land managers can undertake to reduce the likelihood that an area will be burned by a wildfire. Directed use of prescribed fire or harvest planning can lead to changes in the type and arrangement of forest vegetation across the landscape that, in turn, may reduce fire susceptibility across large areas. While among the few variables that fire managers can influence, fuel conditions are only one of many factors that determine fire susceptibility. Variations in weather and topography, in combination with fuels, determine which areas are more likely to burn under a given fire regime. An understanding of these combined factors is necessary to identify high fire susceptibility areas for prioritizing and evaluating strategic fuel management activities, as well as informing other fire management activities, such as community protection planning and strategic level allocation of fire suppression resources across a management area. We used repeated fire growth simulations, automated in the Burn-P3 landscape-fire simulation model, to assess spatial variations in fire susceptibility across a 2.4 million ha study area in the province of Alberta, Canada. The results were used to develop a Fire Susceptibility Index (FSI). Multivariate statistical analyses were used to identify the key factors that determine variation in FSI across the study area and to describe the spatial scale at which these variables influence fire susceptibility at a given location. A fuel management scenario was used to assess the impact of prescribed fire treatments on FSI. Results indicated that modeled fire susceptibility was strongly influenced by fuel composition, fuel arrangement, and topography. The likelihood of high or extreme FSI values at a given location was strongly associated with the percent of conifer forest within a 2-km radius, and with elevation and ignition patterns within a 5-km radius. Results indicated that prescribed fire treatments can be effective at reducing forest fire susceptibility in community protection zones and that simulation modeling is an effective means of evaluating spatial variation in landscape fire susceptibility.  相似文献   

14.
In Maine and other heavily forested states, existing land cover maps quickly become dated due to forest harvesting and land use conversion; therefore, these maps may not adequately reflect landscape properties and patterns relevant to current resource management and ecosystem studies. By updating an older land cover product (the 1993 Maine GAP map) using Landsat imagery and established forest change detection techniques, we demonstrate a practical and accurate means of providing contemporary, spatially explicit forest cover data needed to quantify landscape change. For a 1.8 million hectares study area in northern Maine, we quantify the accuracy of forest harvest classes and compare mapped harvest and regeneration area between the 2004 GAP update product and the 2004 Maine Landcover Dataset (MeLCD), a map recently developed in coordination with the 2001 National Land-Cover Database (NLCD). For the period 1995–2004, the overall harvest/non-harvest accuracy of the GAP update map is 87.5%, compared to 62.1% for the MeLCD. Producer and user accuracy for harvest detection is 92.4% and 89.7%, respectively for the GAP update, and 48.8% and 92.5% for the MeLCD. Mapped harvest area differs considerably, reflecting a systematic under-representation of recent harvest activity on the part of the MeLCD. By integrating older land cover data, the GAP update retains the forest disturbance legacies of the late 1970s through the early 1990s while simultaneously depicting 2004 forest composition for harvested and regenerating stands. In contrast, the MeLCD (and 2001 NLCD) over-represents the area and connectivity of older forest (undisturbed since the late 1970s), and provides no forest composition information for mapped forest regeneration. Systematic misclassification of forest age classes and harvest history has serious implications for studies focused on wildlife habitat modeling, forest inventory, and biomass or carbon stock estimation. We recommend the integration of older land cover data and time-series forest change detection for retention of harvest or disturbance classes when creating new forest and land cover maps.  相似文献   

15.
The northern Témiscamingue region (western Québec) sustained regional-scale pulses of natural disturbances during the 1850–2000 period, such as severe fires during the 1908–1926 period, two severe spruce budworm outbreaks that occurred in 1909–1918 and 1974–1984, and two birch dieback episodes around 1940 and 1980. These disturbances produced synchronous fluctuations in forest characteristics over large spatial scales. In this paper, we review possible responses of flora and fauna to pulsed large-scale disturbance events and speculate on whether they should be emulated to reduce the impacts of forest management on non-timber resources. The importance of large-scale disturbance pulses for biodiversity and forest ecosystem integrity is potentially great, but this aspect has been poorly investigated by previous research, and thus there is little information available to guide forest management. Large-scale, synchronous disturbances could be emulated by clustering harvesting activities in time, for example by creating “harvest pulses” of 10–20 years, separated by periods of 50–100 years or so with low harvest rates. A potential disadvantage of this strategy is that when our capacity to predict future natural disturbances is low, there is a higher probability of accidentally taking the forest ecosystem outside of the range of natural variability compared with a status quo forest management scenario. From a socio-economic perspective, another potential disadvantage is in creating irregular wood flows to the forest transformation industry. Nonetheless, in a context where the forest has been over-disturbed in the recent past, a forest management strategy involving fluctuating harvest rates could provide the means for faster ecosystem recovery compared with a status quo strategy. We recommend that the potential importance of disturbance pulses for boreal and sub-boreal ecosystems be more thoroughly investigated by future research to inform management and conservation policies.  相似文献   

16.
Quantifying the historical range and variability of landscape composition and structure using simulation modeling is becoming an important means of assessing current landscape condition and prioritizing landscapes for ecosystem restoration. However, most simulated time series are generated using static climate conditions which fail to account for the predicted major changes in future climate. This paper presents a simulation study that generates reference landscape compositions for all combinations of three climate scenarios (warm-wet, hot-dry, and current) and three fire regime scenarios (half historical, historical, and double historical fire frequencies) to determine if future climate change has an effect on landscape dynamics. We applied the spatially explicit, state-and-transition, landscape fire succession model LANDSUM to two large landscapes in west-central Montana, USA. LANDSUM was parameterized and initialized using spatial data generated from the LANDFIRE prototype project. Biophysical settings, critical spatial inputs to LANDSUM, were empirically modeled across the landscape using environmental gradients created from historical and modeled future climate daily weather data summaries. Successional pathways and disturbance probabilities were assigned to these biophysical settings based on existing field data and extensive literature reviews. To assess the impact of changes in climate and fire regime, we compared simulated area burned and landscape composition over time among the different simulation scenario combinations using response variables of Sorenson's index (a global measure of similarity) and area occupied by the dominant vegetation class (simple indicator of change in landscape composition). Results show that simulated time series using future predicted climate scenarios are significantly different from the simulated historical time series and any changes in the fire regime tend to create more dissimilar and more variable simulated time series. Our study results indicate that historical time series should be used in conjunction with simulated future time series as references for managing landscapes.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

This study quantified, across a landscape in Eastern Finland, the influence of administrative land-use and technical land-form constraints on timber production. Spatially explicit data about the nature conservation areas, land use plans and steep slopes were integrated with Multi-source National Forest Inventory (MS-NFI) data. The Finnish forestry model MELA was used in the calculations related to updating forest data and estimating different scenarios of timber production with and without constraints. In the study area, the annual volume of maximum sustainable cutting removal defined for the next 30 years was decreased by one-third due to restrictions. The presented approach could be used, for example, to assess timber availability at the landscape level. Future challenges include ensuring the compatibility of spatially explicit data obtained from different sources, identifying the feasibility of forest management operations in the restricted area, and incorporating near-nature forest management operations in the forest planning system in order to estimate the timber production.  相似文献   

18.
火是森林生态系统演替过程中的一种自然干扰因子, 在促进森林发育、维持生物多样性特别是景观多样性方面起着积极的作用。森林中的多种干扰间有关联性, 火灾、虫害和病原体之间存在着复杂的相互作用。文中综述了火干扰与森林病虫害的相互影响。火灾会引起森林组成和景观的变化, 进而影响森林病虫的生存与发生条件。病虫害通过改变可燃物特性及其分布, 影响火烧频度和强度。这一研究领域的未来发展趋势是更注重火与病虫害之间的量化关系, 研究结果将为开展科学的林火管理提供理论依据, 实现森林经营的可持续。  相似文献   

19.
Forest landscape disturbance and succession models have become practical tools for large-scale, long-term analyses of the cumulative effects of forest management on real landscapes. They can provide essential information in a spatial context to address management and policy issues related to forest planning, wildlife habitat quality, timber harvesting, fire effects, and land use change. Widespread application of landscape disturbance and succession models is hampered by the difficulty of mapping the initial landscape layers needed for model implementation and by the complexity of calibrating forest landscape models for new geographic regions. Applications are complicated by issues of scale related to the size of the landscape of interest (bigger is better), the resolution at which the landscape is modeled and analyzed (finer is better), and the cost or complexity of applying a landscape model (cheaper and easier is better). These issues spill over to associated analyses that build on model outputs or become integrated as auxiliary model capabilities. Continued development and application of forest landscape disturbance and simulation models can be facilitated by (1) cooperative efforts to initialize more and larger landscapes for model applications, (2) partnerships of practitioners and scientists to address current management issues, (3) developing permanent mechanisms for user support, (4) adding new capabilities to models, either directly or as compatible auxiliary models, (5) increasing efforts to evaluate model performance and compare multiple models running on the same landscape, and (6) developing methods to choose among complex, multi-resource alternatives with outputs that vary over space and time.  相似文献   

20.
The impact of forest management activities on the ability of forest ecosystems to sequester and store atmospheric carbon is of increasing scientific and social concern. The nature of these impacts varies among forest ecosystems, and spatially and temporally explicit ecosystem models are useful for quantifying the impacts of a number of alternative management regimes for the same forest landscape. The LANDIS-II forest dynamics simulation model is used to quantify changes to the live overstory and coarse woody debris pools under several forest management scenarios in a high-latitude South American forest landscape dominated by two species of southern beech, Nothofagus betuloides and N. pumilio. Both harvest type (clearcutting vs. partial overstory retention) and rotation length (100 years vs. 200 years) were significant predictors of carbon storage in the simulation models. The prompt regeneration of harvest units greatly enhanced carbon storage in clearcutting scenarios. The woody debris pool was particularly sensitive to both harvest type and rotation length, with large decreases noted under short rotation clearcutting. The roles of extended rotations and partial overstory retention are noted for enhancing net carbon storage on the forest landscape.  相似文献   

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