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1.
Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Global climate change may impact grain production as atmospheric conditions and water supply change, particularly intensive cropping, such as double wheat-maize systems. The effects of climate change on grain production of a winter wheat-summer maize cropping system were investigated, corresponding to the temperature rising 2 and 5 °C, precipitation increasing and decreasing by 15% and 30%, and atmospheric CO2 enriching to 500 and 700 ppmv. The study focused on two typical counties in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain (covering most of the North China Plain), Botou in the north and Huaiyuan in the south, considering irrigated and rain-fed conditions, respectively. Climate change scenarios, derived from available ensemble outputs from general circulation models and the historical trend from 1996 to 2004, were used as atmospheric forcing to a bio-geo-physically process-based dynamic crop model, Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP). VIP simulates full coupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, and other energy and water transfer processes. The projected crop yields are significantly different from the baseline yield, with the minimum, mean (±standardized deviation, SD) and maximum changes being −46%, −10.3 ± 20.3%, and 49%, respectively. The overall yield reduction of −18.5 ± 22.8% for a 5 °C increase is significantly greater than −2.3 ± 13.2% for a 2 °C increase. The negative effect of temperature rise on crop yield is partially mitigated by CO2 fertilization. The response of a C3 crop (wheat) to the temperature rise is significantly more sensitive to CO2 fertilization and less negative than the response of C4 (maize), implying a challenge to the present double wheat-maize systems. Increased precipitation significantly mitigated the loss and increased the projected gain of crop yield. Conversely, decreased precipitation significantly exacerbated the loss and reduced the projected gain of crop yield. Irrigation helps to mitigate the decreased crop yield, but CO2 enrichment blurs the role of irrigation. The crops in the wetter southern 3H Plain (Huaiyuan) are significantly more sensitive to climate change than crops in the drier north (Botou). Thus CO2 fertilization effects might be greater under drier conditions. The study provides suggestions for climate change adaptation and sound water resources management in the 3H Plain.  相似文献   

2.
以渭北旱塬合阳和长武2个试验站点为研究区域,通过多年的玉米田间试验数据评估CERES-Maize模型的适用性,再利用区域气候模式Reg CM4.0输出的气象数据对2050年前玉米单产及生产水足迹进行预测。结果表明:CERES-Maize模型可以很好地模拟雨养玉米产量和物候期,多数年份二者的绝对相对误差(Absolute relative error,ARE)在10%以内,CERES-Maize模型在渭北旱塬旱作农业区有很好的适用性。应用CERES-Maize模型模拟玉米生产水足迹,较传统水足迹计算方法得到的结果更为精确可靠。在RCP2.6气候情景下,随着温度升高和生育期有效降水量的增加,玉米产量呈上升趋势;在RCP8.5气候情景下,随着温度升高和生育期有效降水的减少,玉米产量呈下降趋势。气温上升幅度过大对玉米单产有明显的负面影响,降水与玉米用水效率呈正相关。为有效应对气候变化对旱作作物产量造成的负面影响,应采取减少温室气体排放量、增强土壤蓄水保墒能力、发展集雨补灌、筛选和培育节水抗旱新品种等措施。  相似文献   

3.
Despite the importance of livestock to poor people and the magnitude of the changes that are likely to befall livestock systems, the intersection of climate change and livestock in developing countries is a relatively neglected research area. Little is known about the interactions of climate and increasing climate variability with other drivers of change in livestock systems and in broader development trends. In many places in the tropics and subtropics, livestock systems are changing rapidly, and the spatial heterogeneity of household response to change may be very large. While opportunities may exist for some households to take advantage of more conducive rangeland and cropping conditions, for example, the changes projected will pose serious problems for many other households. We briefly review the literature on climate change impacts on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries, and identify some key knowledge and data gaps. We also list some of the broad researchable issues associated with how smallholders and pastoralists might respond to climate change. The agendas of research and development organisations may need adjustment if the needs of vulnerable livestock keepers in the coming decades are to be met effectively.  相似文献   

4.
气候变化对区域农业灌溉用水影响分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
从气候变化对区域灌溉用水影响机理入手,利用区域经济发展、灌溉用水、种植结构等因素之间动态反馈关系,采用系统动力学建模方法,构建了气候变化背景下灌溉用水响应模型,分析了未来不同气候情景下宝鸡峡灌区灌溉用水的变化过程。结果表明,随着未来气温升高趋势的增加,灌溉用水亦呈明显升高趋势,不同情景稍有差异,但差别不大,而不同作物间差异较大。以B1情景为例,温度升高1℃,灌区内灌溉净需水量约增加12050×104m3,毛需水量约增加20080×104m3,灌区内小麦单位面积约增加需水量28m3/亩;玉米约增加8m3/亩,这可能与冬小麦和夏玉米生育期的变化有关,应进一步加强研究。  相似文献   

5.
基于黑龙江省80个气象站1961—2017年气象资料、对应的产量资料以及地理信息资料,采用联合国粮食和农业组织（FAO）推荐的逐步订正法来计算玉米气候生产潜力,分析了玉米的气候生产潜力演变及其对气候变化的响应特征。以期在气候变化背景下,为进一步挖掘玉米生产潜力、提高玉米的现实生产力提供科学依据。   相似文献   

6.
Ethanol from various plant resources, especially maize, is increasingly being used as a substitute for fossil fuels. The production potential of ethanol from maize varies with weather and climatic conditions and crop management practices. The merits and prospects of ethanol production have been evaluated based on its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, economic viability and national energy security. The net energy value (NEV), i.e. the output energy after all non-renewable energy inputs have been accounted for, is a measure of energy gain. At the same time, the NEV can be an indicator for the long-term sustainability of bio-ethanol production, regardless of other conditions e.g. climate change scenarios, global trade restrictions, or local variability in natural resources such as water availability. Crop management practices directly affect the NEV of ethanol. Moreover, both crop management practices and climate variability affect the NEV through the grain yield. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of crop management practices and climate variability on grain yield of maize for ethanol production and ethanol NEV for conditions that represent the southeastern USA. Maize grain yield was simulated with the dynamic crop growth model CSM–CERES–Maize and ethanol NEV was calculated using the simulated yield levels and crop management practices. The simulations were conducted for conditions representing Mitchell County, Georgia, USA, using weather data from 1939 to 2006 and local soil profile information. The impact of irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer, planting date and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases were determined for the maize cultivars DeKalb DKC 61-72 (RR2), Pioneer 31D58 and Pioneer 31G98. Crop management practices and ENSO phase had a significant impact on ethanol feedstock production and NEV. The NEV of ethanol produced from irrigated maize was more than two times higher and varied less than the NEV of ethanol from rainfed maize. NEV of ethanol produced from maize grown during La Niña years was significantly higher than maize grown during El Niño years, both under rainfed and irrigated conditions. This study showed the importance of crop management practices and climate variability on ethanol feedstock productivity and long-term energy sustainability as assessed by the NEV. We discuss methods of implementing the findings of this study in practical farming e.g. through market mechanisms and governmental initiatives.  相似文献   

7.
The performance of a bucket drip irrigation system (BDI) powered by treadle pump was evaluated on tomato and intercropped maize/bean crops, between 2005 and 2007 in Malawi. It was a split plot experiment with three replicates. The BDI system consisted of a 1,300-l tank mounted 1.5 m above ground and connected with a 32-mm mainline and 15-mm lateral lines spaced at 1 m by 0.6 m. A treadle pump was used to uplift water to the tank. Tomato and intercropped maize/bean were irrigated every 4 days. The system reduced labour and water by >25% and it showed high uniform application depth and wetted diameter. Yields were significantly different between tomato varieties (P < 0.05). Maize/bean yields were highly significantly different between monoculture, intercropping system and bean varieties (P < 0.001). Consequently, an economic analysis shows that there is a significant difference, in terms of net income, between the various crop enterprises. Tomato was more valuable with BDI, compared to maize and beans. It can be concluded that BDI, powered by a treadle pump, saves labour and time and it provides uniform irrigation for crop production. Therefore, tomato is recommended for use with this system, compared to maize and bean.  相似文献   

8.
Based on future climate change projections offered by IPCC, the responses of yields and water use efficiencies of wheat and maize to climate change scenarios are explored over the North China Plain. The climate change projections of 21st century under A2A, B2A and A1B are from HadCM3 global climate model.A climate generator (CLIGEN) is applied to generate daily weather data of selected stations and then the data is used to drive CERES-Wheat and Maize models. The impacts of increased temperature and CO2 on wheat and maize yields are inconsistent. Under the same scenario, wheat yield ascended due to climatic warming, but the maize yield descended. As a more probable scenario, climate change under B2A is moderate relative to A2A and A1B. Under B2A in 2090s, average wheat yield and maize yield will respectively increase 9.8% and 3.2% without CO2 fertilization in this region. High temperature not only affects crop yields, but also has positive effect on water use efficiencies, mainly ascribing to the evapotranspiration intensification. There is a positive effect of CO2 enrichment on yield and water use efficiency. If atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches nearly 600 ppm, wheat and maize yields will increase 38% and 12% and water use efficiencies will improve 40% and 25% respectively, in comparison to those without CO2 fertilization. However, the uncertainty of crop yield is considerable under future climate change scenarios and whether the CO2 fertilization may be realized is still needed further research.  相似文献   

9.
Impacts of climate variability and climate change on regional crop yields are commonly assessed using process-based crop models. These models, however, simulate potential and water limited yields, which do not always relate to observed yields. The latter are largely influenced by crop management, which varies by farm and region. Data on specific management strategies may be obtained at the field level, but at the regional level information about the diversity in management strategies is rarely available and difficult to be considered adequately in process-based crop models. Alternatively, understanding the factors influencing management may provide helpful information to improve simulations at the regional level.In this study, we aim to identify factors at the regional level that explain differences between observed and simulated yields. Observed yield data were provided by the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) and Eurostat. The Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS), based on the WOFOST model, was used to simulate potential and water limited maize yields in the EU15 (i.e., the old member states of the European Union). Differences between observed and simulated maize yields were analysed using regression models including: (i) climatic factors (temperature and precipitation), (ii) farm size, (iii) farm intensity, (iv) land use, (v) income and (vi) subsidies. We assumed that the highest yields observed in a region were close to the yield potential as determined by climate and considered the average regional yields as also influenced by management. Model performance was analysed with respect to spatial and temporal yield variability.Results indicate that for potential yield, the model performed unsatisfactory in southern regions, where high temperatures increased observed yields which was in contrast to model simulations. When considering management effects, we find that especially irrigation and the maize area explain much of the differences between observed and simulated yields across regions. Simulations of temporal yield variability also diverted from observed data of which about 80% could be explained by the climatic factors (35%) and farm characteristics (50%) considered in the analysis. However, effects of specific factors differed depending on the regions. Accordingly, we propose different groups of regions with factors related to management which should be considered to improve regional yield simulations with CGMS.  相似文献   

10.
The environment in which crops will be grown in the future will change. CO2 concentrations [CO2] and temperatures (T) will probably increase and a decline of winter rainfall is predicted for south-west Australia. To be able to adapt crop systems to a changing climate it is important to know how different aspects of climate change affect agricultural production and how they interact. In a full factorial design we studied how higher T (2, 4 and 6 °C) elevated [CO2] (525 and 700 ppm) and five different rainfall scenarios affected wheat yield and grain protein. Effects of climate change were simulated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM-Nwheat) using transformed historic weather data. Fifty years of yield and grain protein concentrations were simulated for three soil types at different locations on a north–south transect within the wheatbelt of south-west Australia.

Simulation results showed that there were complex interactions between different aspects of climate change on crop systems. Effects of higher temperatures, elevated [CO2] and changed rainfall were in general not linear and differed significantly between soil types and location. Higher [CO2] increased yield especially at drier sites while higher temperatures had a positive effect in the cooler and wetter southern part of the region. The main difference between soil types was that heavier clay soils are most vulnerable to reduced rainfall while sandy soils were more vulnerable to higher temperatures. Elevated [CO2] reduced grain protein concentration and lower rainfall increased protein levels at all sites. Higher temperatures could both increase and decrease protein concentrations.

In the southern, higher rainfall part of south-western Australia, yield and gross margin will increase for all likely future climate scenarios. In the drier part of the region, negative effects of 15% reduced rainfall can be compensated for by a 2 °C increase in temperature and 50% higher [CO2] concentrations. However due to the non-linearity of climate change effects a 30% reduction in rainfall cannot be compensated for by higher temperatures and [CO2].  相似文献   


11.
Recent changes in the climatic yield potential of various crops in Europe   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Recent changes in the simulated potential crop yield and biomass production caused by changes in the temperature and global radiation patterns are examined, using the Crop Growth Monitoring System. The investigated crops are winter wheat, spring barley, maize, winter rapeseed, potato, sugar beet, pulses and sunflower. The period considered is 1976-2005. The research was executed at NUTS2 level. Maize and sugar beet were the crops least affected by changing temperature and global radiation patterns. For the other crops the simulated potential yield remained stable in the majority of regions, while decreasing trends in simulated potential yields prevailed in the remaining regions. The changes appear in a geographical pattern. In Italy and southern central Europe, temperature and radiation change effects are more severe than elsewhere, in these areas potential crop yields of more than three crops significantly decreased. In the UK and some regions in northern Europe the yield potential of various crops increased.In a next step the national yield statistics were analyzed. For a large majority of the countries the yield increases of wheat, barley and to a lesser extent rapeseed are leveling off. Several explanations could be given, however, as the simulated yield potential for these crops decreased in various regions, the changing temperature and radiation patterns may also contribute to the diminishing yield increases or to the stagnation. In more than 50% of the investigated countries the maize, potato and sugar beet yields continue to increase. This can be attributed to improving production techniques, new crop varieties, sometimes in combination with an improving climatic potential. In some regions in northern Europe, yields continue to increase.  相似文献   

12.
Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates. We used a crop-soil simulation model (APSIM-Nwheat) to test whether changes in physiological traits, related to early vigor and flowering time, would result in increased yield when compared to traditional cultivars of wheat grown at higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO2 and lower rainfall in a Mediterranean climate. Early vigor was simulated by changing four different plant traits. The impact of each trait on grain yield varied with climate scenario and soil type. Higher specific leaf area had minimal effect on yield for the historical climate, but it could increase production in future warmer climates. Increased rooting depth generally had a positive impact on yield, while lower radiation use efficiency and earlier flowering tended to reduce yield. The interaction between these traits was generally positive, and our results indicate that early vigor may improve yield for a range of future climate scenarios. However, in the low rainfall regions, early vigor is unlikely to compensate for rainfall reductions of ?30%. Yield gains for early vigor are likely to be larger on sandy loam than on heavier clay soil.The simulation of cultivars differing in flowering time showed that in drier climates earlier flowering cultivars increase potential yield while in warming climates later cultivars increase yield.In conclusion, our analyses suggest that there is great potential for adapting wheat systems to climate change by introducing cultivars with new traits. Our results also show how simulation analyses can assist plant breeders in determining which traits could be important for crop production in future climates.  相似文献   

13.
三种豆科作物与玉米间作对水分利用的影响   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  
在甘肃河西灌区,对蚕豆、豌豆、大豆3种豆科作物与玉米间作下水分利用情况进行了研究,结果表明:在不同时间和氮水平下,3种豆科作物土壤水分含量变化不同。3种豆科作物与玉米间作相对于单作,不施氮条件下,蚕豆/玉米间作水分用量(WU)减少5.05%,水分利用效率(WUE)增加26.23%;大豆/玉米间作WU和WUE分别减少0.97%、23.12%;豌豆/玉米间作WU增加13.05%、WUE减少17.08%。在225 kg/hm2氮水平下,3种豆科作物与玉米间作相对于单作WU减少3.69%~7.26%,蚕豆/玉米和豌豆/玉米间作相对于单作WUE增加33.33%和23.45%,而大豆/玉米间作WUE减少12.92%。  相似文献   

14.
《Agricultural Systems》2007,94(1-3):191-214
The response of arable crops and grasslands to climatic changes and increasing CO2 concentration has implications for the operation of farms, in particular for the management of resources such as nitrogen. A simple dynamic farm model (Stella© model ‘CH-Farm’) was used to analyze the shift in the ratio of N lost via leaching, denitrification and volatilization to N exported with products from dairy or arable production (here defined as relative N loss). The model was run for two types of farms typical of Swiss conditions. Growth parameters for two sequentially grown crops (winter wheat and maize) and grass were determined with the process-oriented models Pasture Simulation Model (PaSim) and CropSyst, respectively. CH-Farm was forced with two assumptions about the transient change in temperature and precipitation, and with or without CO2 effects. Relative N loss for the baseline was around 1.33 for the dairy-type farm and around 1.05 for the arable-type farm and increased progressively over the 100-year simulation period, with the largest shift in response to the dry/hot scenario. Soil N pools decreased with all scenarios, but at different rates. CO2 fertilization alleviated the effect of climate change due to increased productivity and N fixation in plants. Adjustment of the growth parameters to progressively increasing temperatures reduced the difference between farm types and positively affected relative N losses mainly through increased productivity and reduced fallow periods between crops. The results suggest that the impact of climate change on relative farm-level N loss depends on physiological adjustments to climatic scenarios, whereas the distribution of land between dairy and arable crop production is less important, and that simple cultivar adjustments can help to mitigate negative effects of climate change on farm-level N use.  相似文献   

15.
The influence of nonuniform rainfall distribution patterns on the variability of maize yield and soil water use was studied with the aid of the analyses of rainfall and evapotranspiration data of a semiarid region. The analyses enabled us to define homogeneous areas of soil water availability through the application of a geostatistic algorithm developed for the computation of semivariograms, autocorrelograms and crosscorrelation functions.Water economy and yield of nonirrigated maize grown at each homogeneous area is evaluated through the application of a modification of Hanks' yield—evapotranspiration model.To optimize rainfall use by the crop under semiarid conditions, the effect of differences in soil water availability and maize varietal responses to water stress are evaluated. Results indicate that, when these differences are considered in the selection of maize cultivars, a significant increment in total regional production can be expected.  相似文献   

16.
The impact of climate change on maize yields in the United States and China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
This study analyzes the impacts of climate change on maize yields using an econometric model that incorporates climate, economic, and technology variables. The major finding is climate change will not universally cause negative impacts of maize yields in the United States and China. The results of a simulation of climate change on maize yields over the period 2008-2030 show that a combination of changes in temperature and precipitation can either bring positive or negative effects on maize yields. Furthermore, variation in regional climatic and economic conditions makes the impacts of climatic change on maize yields substantially different in different regions. In this research, the impacts of climate change on maize yields are not simply examined by climate factors. Economic and technology adaptation effects on maize yields are also incorporated. Thus, even with significant changes in climate conditions that alter the maize crop’s growing environment and affect crop yields, a decrease in maize supply due to a decrease in maize yields would lead to an increase in the maize price, which in turn would induce farmers to add more investments in production inputs to raise yields. Thus, the decrease in actual yields may not be as dramatic as predicted in only climate factor considered cases. In this research, findings gained from the study can be used for early-staged policymaking decisions and advanced problem prevention programs. To ensure the continuous increase in maize yields in the future, further studies and research, as well as efficient environmental policies and actions are required.  相似文献   

17.
2ZYS-2型玉米育苗滤水移栽机的研制   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
玉米是黑龙江省种植面积最大、分布范围最广、总产量最高的优势作物,其栽培模式长期以来以直播为主。玉米移栽技术是一项抗旱高产新型农艺栽培技术,相比传统的直播种植方式,移栽能够使玉米作物提高有效积温时间、减少春季低温伤害、提高抵抗病虫害的能力,从而确保纸筒秧苗存活率率,提高玉米的产量和品质。过去玉米移栽大都采用人工的方式进行,劳动力需求大,作业效率低下,移栽质量难以保证,无法进行大面积推广应用。玉米育苗滤水移栽机的研制成功为玉米机械化移栽提供有效机械载体,填补了我国在该类型农机装备方面的空白。  相似文献   

18.
随着农村种养结构的不断调整，农业的二元结构将逐步改变为以粮、经、饲为主的三元种植结构，青贮玉米将成为农区奶牛养殖饲料的主要来源之一。为此,论述了青贮玉米生产现状、主要机具及存在的问题，并对其发展提出了建议。  相似文献   

19.
In sub-mountain tract of Punjab state of India, maize (Zea mays, L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crops are grown as rainfed having low crop and water productivity. To enhance that, proper understanding of the factors (soil type, climate, management practices and their interactions) affecting it is a pre-requisite. The present study aims to assess the effects of tillage, date of sowing, and irrigation practices on the rainfed maize–wheat cropping system involving combined approach of field study and simulation. Field experiments comprising 18 treatments (three dates of sowing as main, three tillage systems as subplot and two irrigation regimes as the sub-subplot) were conducted for two years (2004–2006) and simulations were made for 15 years using CropSyst model. Field and simulated results showed that grain yields of maize and wheat crops were more in early July planted maize and early November planted wheat on silt loam soil. Different statistical parameters (root mean square error, coefficient of residual mass, model efficiency, coefficient of correlation and paired t-test) indicated that CropSyst model did fair job to simulate biomass production and grain yield for maize–wheat cropping system under varying soil texture, date of planting and irrigation regimes.  相似文献   

20.
气候变化对黑河流域典型作物灌溉需水量的影响   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
为研究气候变化对作物灌溉需水量的影响,在假定未来气温上升0.5~4℃,降水增加10%~30%的条件下,研究了黑河流域主要作物在不同种植条件下的作物需水量及灌溉需水量的变化。结果表明,生长期内气温每升高1℃,区域内小麦净作、玉米净作和小麦与玉米间作方式下作物需水量将分别增加3.1%(15.5 mm)、2.8%(18.5 mm)和3.0%(25.6 mm),黑河流域中游每年将增加灌溉量0.15×108m3,相当于国家给黑河干流区分水量的2.4%;降水每增加10%,灌溉需水量将分别减少1.9%(7.8 mm)2、.3%(12.4 mm)和1.8%(12.8 mm)。  相似文献   

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