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1.
The western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) tuna fishery is one of the world's largest in terms of both catch volume and value, providing over half of global tuna catch with a landed value of US $5.84 billion in 2017. Fishing is conducted by both large‐ and small‐scale fleets, with fisheries subsidies disproportionately benefiting the former. The primary objective of this study was to determine the optimal distribution of effort between two large‐scale fisheries (LSF) and two small‐scale fisheries (SSF) in the WCPO under three scenarios: to maximize industry benefits, minimize subsidization or maximize food supply. The objective was approached using a bioeconomic game‐theoretic model. Results indicate opposite distributions of effort to maximize industry benefits (all fishing conducted by LSF) or to minimize subsidization (all fishing by SSF), with more balanced effort distributions to maximize food supply. Total value of capacity‐enhancing subsidies in optimal scenarios ranged from $1.4 billion when industry benefits were maximized to $0.2 billion when subsidization was minimized. Investigation of suboptimal scenarios reveals the flexibility of these results, with wide ranges in outputted state variables for a given goal. Difficulty was encountered in modelling the SSF sector due to data deficiencies, a well‐recognized issue in managing SSF. Investments towards “data equity” to help ensure that management decision‐making can properly account for the SSF sector would be useful. This study has implications for the objectives we set in fisheries management, and the potential trade‐offs, often value‐driven in nature, that we must make explicit in that management.  相似文献   

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3.
Climate change, ocean acidification (OA) and the subsequent changes in marine productivity may affect fisheries and eventually the whole economy in the Arctic. We analysed how changes in climate and ocean pH under scenarios of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are likely to affect the economics of marine fisheries in the Arctic. We applied a Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) and outputs from four different Earth System Models (ESMs) to project future changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates. We projected that total fisheries revenue in the Arctic region may increase by 39% (14–59%) by 2050 relative to 2000 under the Special Reports on Emission Scenario (SRES) A2. Simultaneously, total fishing costs, fishers’ incomes, household incomes and economy‐wide impacts in the Arctic are also projected to increase. Climate change with OA is expected to reduce the potential increases in catch and the economic indicators studied herein. Although the projections suggest that Arctic countries are likely to be ‘winners’ under climate change in comparison with tropical developing countries, the effects of OA will lower the expected future benefits in the Arctic. The predicted impacts are likely to be conservative as we consider only the direct effects of OA on fishes and calcifiers, of which there are only a few in the Arctic. Results of this study would be useful for designing effective adaptation strategies to climate change and measures to mitigate the potential negative impacts of OA in the Arctic.  相似文献   

4.
Assessments of the combined ecological impacts of ocean acidification and warming (OAW) and their social and economic consequences can help develop adaptive and responsive management strategies in the most sensitive regions. Here, available observational and experimental data, theoretical, and modelling approaches are combined to project and quantify potential effects of OAW on the future fisheries catches and resulting revenues and employment in the UK under different CO2 emission scenarios. Across all scenarios, based on the limited available experimental results considered, the bivalve species investigated were more affected by OAW than the fish species considered, compared with ocean warming alone. Projected standing stock biomasses decrease between 10 and 60%. These impacts translate into an overall fish and shellfish catch decrease of between 10 and 30% by 2020 across all areas except for the Scotland >10 m fleet. This latter fleet shows average positive impacts until 2050, declining afterwards. The main driver of the projected decreases is temperature rise (0.5–3.3 °C), which exacerbate the impact of decreases in primary production (10–30%) in UK fishing waters. The inclusion of the effect of ocean acidification on the carbon uptake of primary producers had very little impact on the projections of potential fish and shellfish catches (<1%). The <10 m fleet is likely to be the most impacted by‐catch decreases in the short term (2020–50), whereas the effects will be experienced more strongly by the >10 m fleet by the end of the century in all countries. Overall, losses in revenue are estimated to range between 1 and 21% in the short term (2020–50) with England and Scotland being the most negatively impacted in absolute terms, and Wales and North Ireland in relative terms. Losses in total employment (fisheries and associated industries) may reach approximately 3–20% during 2020–50 with the >10 m fleet and associated industries bearing the majority of the losses.  相似文献   

5.
Size‐based indicators are used worldwide in research that supports the management of commercially exploited wild fish populations, because of their responsiveness to fishing pressure. Observational and experimental data, however, have highlighted the deeply rooted links between fish size and environmental conditions that can drive additional, interannual changes in these indicators. Here, we have used biogeochemical and mechanistic niche modelling of commercially exploited demersal fish species to project time series to the end of the 21st century for one such indicator, the large fish indicator (LFI), under global CO2 emissions scenarios. Our modelling results, validated against survey data, suggest that the LFI's previously proposed policy target may be unachievable under future climate change. In turn, our results help to identify what may be achievable policy targets for demersal fish communities experiencing climate change. While fisheries modelling has grown as a science, climate change modelling is seldom used specifically to address policy aims. Studies such as this one can, however, enable a more sustainable exploitation of marine food resources under changes unmanageable by fisheries control. Indeed, such studies can be used to aid resilient policy target setting by taking into account climate‐driven effects on fish community size‐structure.  相似文献   

6.
The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate‐induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate‐related local extinctions were expected in the south‐eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi‐SDM, multi‐GCM, multi‐RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.  相似文献   

7.
Climate change is projected to redistribute fisheries resources, resulting in tropical regions suffering decreases in seafood production. While sustainably managing marine ecosystems contributes to building climate resilience, these solutions require transformation of ocean governance. Recent studies and international initiatives suggest that conserving high seas biodiversity and fish stocks will have ecological and economic benefits; however, implications for seafood security under climate change have not been examined. Here, we apply global‐scale mechanistic species distribution models to 30 major straddling fish stocks to show that transforming high seas fisheries governance could increase resilience to climate change impacts. By closing the high seas to fishing or cooperatively managing its fisheries, we project that catches in exclusive economic zones (EEZs) would likely increase by around 10% by 2050 relative to 2000 under climate change (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5), compensating for the expected losses (around ?6%) from ‘business‐as‐usual’. Specifically, high seas closure increases the resilience of fish stocks, as indicated by a mean species abundance index, by 30% in EEZs. We suggest that improving high seas fisheries governance would increase the resilience of coastal countries to climate change.  相似文献   

8.
Reconciling food security, economic development and biodiversity conservation is a key challenge, especially in the face of the demographic transition characterizing many countries in the world. Fisheries and marine ecosystems constitute a difficult application of this bio‐economic challenge. Many experts and scientists advocate an ecosystem approach to manage marine socio‐ecosystems for their sustainability and resilience. However, the ways by which to operationalize ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) remain poorly specified. We propose a specific methodological framework—viability modelling—to do so. We show how viability modelling can be applied using four contrasted case‐studies: two small‐scale fisheries in South America and Pacific and two larger‐scale fisheries in Europe and Australia. The four fisheries are analysed using the same modelling framework, structured around a set of common methods, indicators and scenarios. The calibrated models are dynamic, multispecies and multifleet and account for various sources of uncertainty. A multicriteria evaluation is used to assess the scenarios’ outcomes over a long time horizon with different constraints based on ecological, social and economic reference points. Results show to what extent the bio‐economic and ecosystem risks associated with the adoption of status quo strategies are relatively high and challenge the implementation of EBFM. In contrast, strategies called ecoviability or co‐viability strategies, that aim at satisfying the viability constraints, reduce significantly these ecological and economic risks and promote EBFM. The gains associated with those ecoviability strategies, however, decrease with the intensity of regulations imposed on these fisheries.  相似文献   

9.
Small‐scale fisheries often involve weak management regimes with limited top‐down enforcement of rules and minimal support from legal institutions, making them useful model systems for investigating the role of social influence in determining economic and environmental outcomes. In such regimes, interpersonal relationships are expected to have a strong effect on a fisher's catch portfolio, the set of fish species targeted by an individual fisher. Here, we test three competing hypotheses about social influence using belief propagation network models and show that a peer‐to‐peer information‐sharing social network is key to explaining catch portfolios at a small‐scale fishery in Jamaica. We find that experience dictates the direction of influence among fishers in the social network, with older fishers and information brokers having distinct roles in shaping catch patterns for large‐ and small‐sized fish species, respectively. These findings highlight concrete opportunities for harnessing social networks in natural resource management. Our new approach to modelling social influence is applicable to many social–ecological systems with minimal legal and institutional support or those that rely heavily on bottom‐up participatory processes.  相似文献   

10.
Spatially explicit fisheries simulation models for policy evaluation   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
This paper deals with the design of modelling tools suitable for investigating the consequences of alternative policies on the dynamics of resources and fisheries, such as the evaluation of marine protected areas (MPA). We first review the numerous models that have been developed for this purpose, and compare them from several standpoints: population modelling, exploitation modelling and management measure modelling. We then present a generic fisheries simulation model, Integration of Spatial Information for FISHeries simulation (ISIS‐Fish). This spatially explicit model allows quantitative policy screening for fisheries with mixed‐species harvests. It may be used to investigate the effects of combined management scenarios including a variety of policies: total allowable catch (TAC), licenses, gear restrictions, MPA, etc. Fisher's response to management may be accounted for by means of decision rules conditioned on population and exploitation parameters. An application to a simple example illustrates the relevance of this kind of tool for policy screening, particularly in the case of mixed fisheries. Finally, the reviewed models and ISIS‐Fish are discussed and confronted in the light of the underlying assumptions and model objectives. In the light of this discussion, we identify desirable features for fisheries simulation models aimed at policy evaluation, and particularly MPA evaluation.  相似文献   

11.
Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial fish and shellfish. Changes are anticipated everywhere, including in the seas of many important fishing nations. Species turnover will in turn result in both opportunities and threats to fishing industries. To determine the impacts for northwest European shelf fisheries, we project changes for 49 commercially important fish and shellfish species using an ensemble of five ecological niche models and three different downscaled climate change projections. The habitat suitability and latitudinal shifts projected from the recent past (1997–2016) to two futures (2030–2050; 2050–2070) were calculated for waters around the United Kingdom. Of the species examined, around half were projected to have consistently more suitable habitat in the future, including European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae), sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Alosidae) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Engraulidae). Conversely, it is suggested that UK waters will become less suitable for species including Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) and saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae). Our comprehensive approach using a number of models and climate change scenarios shows that while there are differences in the magnitude of change between models, and while some models perform better for certain species compared with others, overall, the general trends in habitat suitability and abundance are robust across models and climate scenarios. This emphasises the value in using more than one modelling technique with different climate scenarios (i.e., an ensemble approach) to capture the uncertainty or agreement around climate change projections.  相似文献   

12.
In recent decades, invertebrate fisheries have expanded in catch and value worldwide. One increasingly harvested group is sea cucumbers (class Holothuroidea), which are highly valued in Asia and sold as trepang or bêche‐de‐mer. We compiled global landings, economic data, and country‐specific assessment and management reports to synthesize global trends in sea cucumber fisheries, evaluate potential drivers, and test for local and global serial exploitation patterns. Although some sea cucumber fisheries have existed for centuries, catch trends of most individual fisheries followed boom‐and‐bust patterns since the 1950s, declining nearly as quickly as they expanded. New fisheries expanded five to six times faster in 1990 compared to 1960 and at an increasing distance from Asia, encompassing a global fishery by the 1990s. Global sea cucumber production was correlated to the Japanese yen at a leading lag. Regional assessments revealed that population declines from overfishing occurred in 81% of sea cucumber fisheries, average harvested body size declined in 35%, harvesters moved from near‐ to off‐shore regions in 51% and from high‐ to low‐value species in 76%. Thirty‐eight per cent of sea cucumber fisheries remained unregulated, and illegal catches were of concern in half. Our results suggest that development patterns of sea cucumber fisheries are largely predictable, often unsustainable and frequently too rapid for effective management responses. We discuss potential ecosystem and human community consequences and urge for better monitoring and reporting of catch and abundance, proper scientific stock assessment and consideration of international trade regulations to ensure long‐term and sustainable harvesting of sea cucumbers worldwide.  相似文献   

13.
Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social-ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future. We set the stage with a brief review of the impacts of the heatwave on marine ecosystems and the first systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these changes on commercial and recreational fisheries. We then examine ten key case studies that provide instructive examples of the complex and surprising challenges that heatwaves pose to fisheries social-ecological systems. These reveal important insights into improving the resilience of monitoring and management and increasing adaptive capacity to future stressors. Key recommendations include: (1) expanding monitoring to enhance mechanistic understanding, provide early warning signals, and improve predictions of impacts; (2) increasing the flexibility, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness of management where possible; (3) using simulation testing to help guide management decisions; and (4) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fishing communities by promoting engagement, flexibility, experimentation, and failsafes. These advancements are important as global fisheries prepare for a changing ocean.  相似文献   

14.
I summarize the total allowable catch (TAC) fishery management system, which forms part of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) as complicated, inaccurate and ineffective. Total allowable effort (TAE), i.e. limits on fishing capacity and days‐at‐sea, provides a simpler, readily enforceable control to protect all species affected by a fishery. Fishing capacity of vessels in each region‐gear fleet could be capped through limits on engine power, gear, crew, and fittings, and/or reducing allowances of days‐at‐sea for large, powerful vessels. Two basic, fishery‐dependent indicators are put forward to assess sustainability of a fishery dependably even in the absence of fishery‐independent data. One is socio‐economic, the other is ecological. Fishery working groups within each marine region would recommend a TAE to sustain their fishery while also protecting the most critically affected species or processes. Regional working groups would supervise a consistent approach across the different fisheries in their region. A pan‐European group would set policy, implement external agreements, set rules for trading TAE if necessary and harmonize fishing opportunities across regions. To ease negotiations on TAEs with the fishing industry when an ecosystem needs to recover, I propose compensation payments funded by re‐direction of existing CFP subsidies that promote fishing.  相似文献   

15.
Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem‐mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010–2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long‐term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long‐term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long‐term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long‐term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.  相似文献   

16.
Time/area closures have been widely used in fisheries management to prevent overfishing and the destruction of marine biodiversity. To a lesser degree, such spatio‐temporal management measures have been used to reduce by‐catch of finfish or protected species. However, as ecosystem‐based management approaches are employed and more fisheries are managed through multispecies, multiobjective models, the management of by‐catch will likely become increasingly important. The elimination of by‐catch has become a primary goal of the fishing policies of many countries. It is particularly relevant in the United States, as the deadline for setting annual catch limits (ACLs) in all fisheries passes in 2011. This will result in a dramatic expansion of the number of catch and by‐catch quotas. Such catch measures may result in the early closure of otherwise sustainable fisheries when by‐catch quotas are exceeded. To prevent such closures and the consequent economic hardship to fishers and the economy, it is imperative that managers be given the tools necessary to reduce by‐catch and improve fishing selectivity. Targeted spatio‐temporal fishery closures are one solution open to managers. Here, we examine how the spatio‐temporal and oceanographic characteristics of by‐catch may be used by managers to design fishery closures, and place these methods within a decision tree to assist managers to identify appropriate management measures. We argue that the current movement towards marine spatial planning (MSP) presents an important impetus to examine how we manage fisheries spatially, and we offer a first step towards the objective participation of fisheries in the MSP process.  相似文献   

17.
Many marine species are shifting their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, posing significant challenges and risks for fisheries management. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to project future species distributions in the face of a changing climate. Information to fit SDMs generally comes from two main sources: fishery-independent (scientific surveys) and fishery-dependent (commercial catch) data. A concern with fishery-dependent data is that fishing locations are not independent of the underlying species abundance, potentially biasing predictions of species distributions. However, resources for fishery-independent surveys are increasingly limited; therefore, it is critical we understand the strengths and limitations of SDMs developed from fishery-dependent data. We used a simulation approach to evaluate the potential for fishery-dependent data to inform SDMs and abundance estimates and quantify the bias resulting from different fishery-dependent sampling scenarios in the California Current System (CCS). We then evaluated the ability of the SDMs to project changes in the spatial distribution of species over time and compare the time scale over which model performance degrades between the different sampling scenarios and as a function of climate bias and novelty. Our results show that data generated from fishery-dependent sampling can still result in SDMs with high predictive skill several decades into the future, given specific forms of preferential sampling which result in low climate bias and novelty. Therefore, fishery-dependent data may be able to supplement information from surveys that are reduced or eliminated for budgetary reasons to project species distributions into the future.  相似文献   

18.
Strategic long‐term sampling programmes that deliver recreational catch, effort and species demographic data are required for the effective assessment and management of recreational fisheries and harvested organisms. This study used a spatially and temporally stratified observer programme to examine variation in the rates, quantities and lengths of retained and discarded catches of key species in a recreational charter fishery. Geographic region, but not season, significantly influenced catch rates of key demersal species, being driven by temporally persistent latitudinal clines in environmental conditions influencing species distributions. There was considerable trip‐to‐trip variation in catch rates that were attributed to localised differences in fishing operations, locations, environmental conditions and client preferences. Broad trends in retained and discarded catch rates were nevertheless, similar across different fishing effort standardisations (per‐trip, per‐hour, per‐client, per‐client/fished hour), demonstrating that the coarsest unit of effort could be used in fishery assessments. Discard rates of organisms were variable and driven by a combination of mandated legal lengths, individual client and operator preferences for particular species and sizes of organisms, and not due to attainment of catch quotas or high‐grading. This study has identified important fishery attributes that require consideration in assessing charter fisheries and stocks of recreational fish species.  相似文献   

19.
Following implementation in a range of other resource sectors, a number of credit‐like systems have been proposed for fisheries. But confusion exists over what constitutes these nascent ‘fisheries credit’ systems and how they operate. Based on a review of credit systems in other sectors, this study fills this gap by defining how credit systems function and what credits add to prevailing fisheries management. In doing so, we distinguish ‘mitigation’ and ‘behavioural’ fishery credits. Mitigation credits require resource users to compensate for unsustainable catches of target species, by‐catch species or damaging practices on the marine environment by investing in conservation in a biologically equivalent habitat or resource. Behavioural credit systems incentivize fishers to gradually change their fishing behaviour to more sustainable fishing methods by rewarding them with, for instance, extra fishing effort to compensate for less efficient but more sustainable fishing methods. The choice of credit system largely depends on the characteristics of specific fisheries and the management goals agreed upon by managers, scientists and the fishing industry. The study concludes that fisheries credit systems are different but complimentary to other forms of management by focusing on ‘catchability’ or gear efficiency in addition to effort or catch quota, affecting overall economic efficiency by setting specific goals as to how fish are caught. Credit systems therefore incentivize specific management interventions that can directly improve stock sustainability, conserve habitat and endangered species, or decrease by‐catch.  相似文献   

20.
Compared to a century ago, the world's fishing fleets are larger and more powerful, are travelling further and are producing higher quality products. These developments come largely at a cost of high‐fossil fuel energy inputs. Rising energy prices, climate change and consumer demand for ‘green’ products have placed energy use and emissions among the sustainability criteria of food production systems. We have compiled all available published and unpublished fuel use data for fisheries targeting all species, employing all gears and fishing in all regions of the world into a Fisheries and Energy Use Database (FEUD). Here, we present results of our analysis of the relative energy performance of fisheries since 1990 and provide an overview of the current state of knowledge on fuel inputs to diverse fishing fleets. The median fuel use intensity of global fishery records since 1990 is 639 litres per tonne. Fuel inputs to fisheries vary by several orders of magnitude, with small pelagic fisheries ranking among the world's most efficient forms of animal protein production and crustaceans ranking among the least efficient. Trends in Europe and Australia since the beginning of the 21st century suggest fuel use efficiency is improving, although this has been countered by a more rapid increase in oil prices. Management decisions, technological improvements and behavioural changes can further reduce fuel consumption in the short term, although the most effective improvement to fisheries energy performance will come as a result of rebuilding stocks where they are depressed and reducing over‐capacity.  相似文献   

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