共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 234 毫秒
1.
Janet L Gardner 《Biological conservation》2004,118(2):195-204
The aggregation of individuals into foraging flocks is one behavioural trait that, if disrupted, can cause the Allee effect, which is a slowing in population growth at low density or small population size, and this can greatly increase the risk of extinction. Here, I describe intraspecific flocking behaviour of a colour-banded population of speckled warblers, Chthonicola sagittata, a species that has declined across a large part of its range in the fragmented temperate woodlands of Australia. I make predictions about the context in which the Allee effect might be expressed and the consequences for the viability of populations living in small habitat remnants. Speckled warblers lived in discrete, stable social groups throughout winter, the nucleus of which was the residents from one or more adjacent breeding territories. The timing and mode of flock formation and the size of flocks varied between two winters, apparently in response to the severity of conditions; thus flocking probably facilitates increased foraging efficiency and predator detection, potentially leading to increased survival in harsh conditions. Because flock territories were up to 30 ha each, and larger territories are likely, birds living in remnants smaller than 40 ha may suffer increased mortality if there are too few birds available to form flocks of an appropriate size to facilitate the benefits of grouping when conditions are most extreme. Further, in small remnants where survival is reduced, dominance behaviour and male-male competition may act to compound the Allee effect by reducing reproductive success. Regardless of these predictions, speckled warbler populations may only be viable in remnants that are large enough to support multiple flocks, to enable rapid recruitment to breeding vacancies and thus provide adequate numbers of birds for flocking. 相似文献
2.
Extirpation, colonization, and habitat dynamics of a keystone species along an urban gradient 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Using 5 years of patch occupancy data for 384 habitat fragments, we evaluated population and habitat dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog in urban habitat remnants in the rapidly developing landscape of Denver, CO, USA. Specifically, we evaluated the landscape factors, including fragment area, age, and connectivity, that characterize the habitat fragments most likely to be colonized by prairie dogs, as well as those experiencing local extinctions. In addition, we determined which patch types were most often removed by land development. Sites in proximity to colonies were more likely to be colonized by prairie dogs. Local extinctions were most common on isolated colonies, and older and more isolated colonies were more likely to be extirpated by human activity. In general, smaller and older habitat patches were at the highest risk of being lost to land development. Our results provide observations of dynamic changes to the distribution of a potential keystone species in an urban area, which can be used to inform island biogeographic and metapopulation models for wildlife persistence in developing landscapes. Although populations are currently in decline, most local extinctions are the direct result of human activity, and we suggest that prairie dogs in this area can persist with appropriate management. 相似文献
3.
Although population declines of grassland songbirds in North America and Europe are well-documented, the effect of local processes on regional population persistence is unclear. To assess population viability of grassland songbirds at a regional scale (∼150,000 ha), we quantified Savannah Sparrow Passerculus sandwichensis and Bobolink Dolichonyx oryzivorus annual productivity, adult apparent survival, habitat selection, and density in the four most (regionally) common grassland treatments. We applied these data to a female-based, stochastic, pre-breeding population model to examine whether current grassland management practices can sustain viable populations of breeding songbirds. Additionally, we evaluated six conservation strategies to determine which would most effectively increase population trends. Given baseline conditions, over 10 years, simulations showed a slightly declining or stable Savannah Sparrow population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.99; 95% CI = 1.00-0.989) and severely declining Bobolink population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.753-0.747). Savannah Sparrow populations were sensitive to increases in all demographic parameters, particularly adult survival. However for Bobolinks, increasing adult apparent survival, juvenile apparent survival, or preference by changing habitat selection cues for late-hayed fields (highest quality) only slightly decreased the rate of decline. For both species, increasing the amount of high-quality habitat (late- and middle-hayed) marginally slowed population declines; increasing the amount of low-quality habitat (early-hayed and grazed) marginally increased population declines. Both species were most sensitive to low productivity and survival on early-hayed fields, despite the fact that this habitat comprised only 18% of the landscape. Management plans for all agricultural regions should increase quality on both low- and high-quality fields by balancing habitat needs, nesting phenology, and species’ response to management. 相似文献
4.
Population viability analyses (PVA) are frequently employed to develop recovery plans and inform management of endangered species. Translating results from PVA into meaningful management recommendations often depends on an understanding of how population parameters change with environmental conditions as well as population density. The decline of mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia, Canada, is believed to be caused by apparent competition with alternative prey species following changes to the forest age structure from timber harvest and wildfire. In addition, populations have been shown to decline at faster rates at low population density. To evaluate the potential effects of habitat change and population density on population persistence, we used stochastic projection models for 10 distinct populations varying in initial size from <10 to approximately 150 females. In an initial model, we used estimates of vital rates based on information sampled from >350 radiocollared caribou between 1984 and 2004. We then compared the results of the initial model to a set of models that evaluated the effects of habitat conditions and population density via their expected relationships to female adult survival. Assuming that vital rates remain constant over a 200-year time frame, only three populations have high probabilities (>0.95) of extinction. When models incorporate the declines in adult female survival know to occur with increasing proportions of young forest and declining population densities, all 10 populations are predicted to decline to extinction within <200 years. Based on our results, we suggest that PVA models that fail to incorporate the effects of changes in vital rates with habitat and population density may lead to overly optimistic assessments of the probability of population persistence in endangered species. 相似文献
5.
Charlotte L. Roy Nielsen Sarah M. Wakamiya Clayton K. Nielsen 《Biological conservation》2008,141(4):1043-1054
Swamp rabbits (Sylvilagus aquaticus) are state-endangered in Indiana, USA, and population decline has been attributed to habitat loss. We conducted pellet surveys as part of a long-term survey effort that has been conducted at approximate 10-year intervals over the last 40 years. We modeled patch occupancy and conducted a spatially-explicit population viability analysis (PVA). Although occupancy of individual patches varied over time, occupancy rate has been constant for the last 30 years, and Indiana swamp rabbits exist as a metapopulation that appears to be stable. Metapopulation dynamics were best characterized as being stationary, but area was an important factor in extinction rates; occupied patches (142 ± 37 ha) were significantly larger (P = 0.01) than unoccupied patches (79 ± 20 ha). We did not find strong support for models with colonization rates as a function of distance to neighboring patches, nor was distance to contiguous patches of habitat significantly different (P = 0.12) for occupied and unoccupied sites. Population viability analysis corroborated our findings based on occupancy modeling, and evaluation of the PVA model using occupancy data for the period 1985–2006 resulted in predictions that nearly matched our field observations (33% observed patch occupancy vs. 25% predicted patch occupancy). Population viability was most sensitive to reductions in survival and fecundity rates, but was otherwise robust to changes in parameters such as initial abundance and carrying capacity. Our findings provide novel insights into a poorly studied member of Sylvilagus and into species metapopulation dynamics at the edge of the range. 相似文献
6.
Contemporary fire patterns are considered the most likely cause for regional population decline amongst small to medium mammals in northern tropical Australia. Here we assess the extinction risk faced by a vulnerable north Australian native rodent, the Brush-tailed Rabbit-rat Conilurus penicillatus in relation to fire frequency. This species has recently suffered a significant contraction in range. We provide the first quantitative evidence to demonstrate the immediate threat destructive wildfires and regular annual fire pose to the long-term population persistence of C. penicillatus. We show that late-dry season fires cause a reduction in both juvenile and adult survival probabilities. However, abundance declined at the unburnt as well as a frequently burnt site, suggesting that fire exclusion alone does not guarantee the species’ long-term persistence. Our model projections indicate that the remaining populations of C. penicillatus on the Northern Territory mainland risk extirpation within the next ten years. Conservation requires decisive management action to ameliorate extensive and destructive fires. A multi-faceted management plan needs to focus on restoring a fire management regime which generates a fine-scale mosaic of burnt and unburnt habitat, and the release of captive bred animals into fenced reserves free of exotic predators. 相似文献
7.
Grassland birds are in steep decline throughout many regions of the world. In North America, even some common species have declined by >50% over the last few decades. Declines in grassland bird populations have generally been attributed to widespread agricultural conversion of grasslands; more than 80% of North American grasslands have been converted to agriculture and other land uses, for example. Remaining large grasslands should thus be especially important to the conservation of grassland birds. The Flint Hills of Kansas and Oklahoma (USA) preserves the largest intact tallgrass prairie (∼2 million ha) left in the world. The Flint Hills supports a major cattle industry, however, and therefore experiences widespread grazing and frequent burning. We assessed the regional population status of three grassland birds that are considered the core of the avian community in this region (Dickcissel, Spiza americana; Grasshopper Sparrow, Ammodramus savannarum; Eastern Meadowlark, Sturnella magna). Our approach is founded on a demographic analysis that additionally explores how to model variability in empirically derived estimates of reproductive success across a large heterogeneous landscape, which ultimately requires the translation of demographic data from local (plot) to regional scales. We found that none of these species is demographically viable at a regional scale under realistic assumptions, with estimated population declines of 3-29%/year and a likelihood of regional viability of 0-45% over the two years of study. Current land-management practices may thus be exacerbating grassland bird declines by degrading habitat in even large grassland remnants. Habitat area is thus no guarantee of population viability in landscapes managed predominantly for agricultural or livestock production. 相似文献
8.
Habitat destruction and degradation are the major causes for the decline of the endangered grass-feeding beetle Dorcadion fuliginator in Central Europe. In the southern part of the Upper Rhine valley (border region of Switzerland, Germany and France) the habitat suitable for this flightless beetle has been reduced to small remnants of extensively managed dry grassland, usually surrounded by intensively cultivated agricultural fields or settlements. Using a mark-release-resight technique we examined movement patterns in three D. fuliginator populations to obtain basic information on the dispersal ability and longevity of this beetle. Estimated daily survival rates ranged from 88.8% to 90.8% in the populations examined. This corresponds to a mean life span of 10.5 days. Distances moved by D. fuliginator differed among populations. The beetles walked the largest distances in the verges of a field track. Several beetles moved distances of 20-100 m along the track, with a maximum distance of 218 m (a male in 12 days). The shortest displacements were recorded in the bank of the river Rhine, a narrow habitat surrounded by tarmac roads. We also assessed the spatial arrangement of 12 patches with D. fuliginator populations in two regions and estimated the size of each population over 4 years. Data on dispersal, daily survival, population size and spatial arrangement of patches were used to simulate patch-specific migration rates. The simulations suggested that in both areas the beetles regularly moved between neighbouring patches separated by distances shorter than 100 m, whereas patches separated by distances exceeding 500 m are isolated. 相似文献
9.
10.
Significant biodiversity loss is characteristic of agricultural landscapes worldwide. Biodiversity recovery efforts in such landscapes can be hamstrung by a paucity of information on factors affecting species’ distributions, particularly for threatened and/or declining species. The temperate woodlands of south-eastern Australia have been extensively modified for agriculture and numerous bird taxa are declining. We have explicitly identified habitat and landscape attributes of woodland remnants affecting site occupancy by 13 woodland bird species of conservation concern.Using case-control data and linear logistic regression, we found that site occupancy for each species was related to both habitat and landscape variables. Habitat variables of particular importance included those in the ground layer (an abundance of leaf litter, an intact surface crust of mosses and lichens and a scarcity of annual grasses) and overstorey (a scarcity of eucalypt dieback and an abundance of mistletoe). Landscape variables strongly affecting site occupancy included the number of paddock trees and the area of native grass within 500 m of a site. Many of our study species were found most often in regrowth remnants.Our findings indicate a gap between current conservation practices and the actual habitat requirements of woodland bird species of conservation concern. Successful management will require protection and/or rehabilitation of the ground layer and overstorey of woodland remnants and sympathetic management of the surrounding landscape. It also will require managers to go beyond current practices of conserving old growth remnants and establishing replantings to maintaining and creating stands of woodland regrowth. 相似文献
11.
A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted to assess the minimum viable population (MVP) of the Atlantic Forest spiny rat Trinomys eliasi, a species threatened by habitat loss and restricted geographical distribution. Objectives were to suggest quasi-extinction thresholds, estimate minimum areas of suitable habitat (MASH) and MVPs, and compare results with the species’ current status. The computer package VORTEX was used. The model predicted sizes of 200 animals to achieve demographic stability, but buffering declines in genetic variability required populations of 2000 animals. Estimated MASHs were approximately 250 and 2500 ha for demographic and genetic stability, respectively. Mortality rate and mean litter size were the most sensitive parameters to changes in model assumptions. The protection of known populations and the search for extant populations are the first steps in conservation. T. eliasi's issue could help protecting the coastal shrubland ecosystem of Rio de Janeiro state. Observing IUCN's criteria for listing threatened species, it is suggested that T. eliasi should be ranked as vulnerable in red lists. 相似文献
12.
Eric S. Menges Pedro F. Quintana Ascencio Orou G. Gaoue 《Biological conservation》2006,127(1):115-127
We use population viability analysis of an endangered Florida scrub mint, Dicerandra frutescens, to specify the optimal fire return intervals for its long-term persistence and for its specific habitat. We derived 83 population projection matrices from 13 years of demographic data from eight populations, 59 matrices from scrub populations and 24 from firelane or yard edges. Seed dormancy and germination transitions were inferred based on experimental data and verified by comparing modeled vs. observed population trajectories. Finite rates of increase in scrub sites were highest shortly after fire and declined steeply through 10 years postfire. The break-even value of λ = 1 was passed quickly, in about six years, suggesting that populations >6 years postfire were already facing decline. The decline is probably related to the rapid growth of competing shrubs in the habitat of D. frutescens. In long-unburned sites, finite rates of increase were nearly always <1 and declined the most in the long-unburned site with no foot trails or treefall gaps. Finite rates of increase in firelane populations also declined with years since fire or last disking. The yard edge population showed λ values both >1 and <1, with no temporal trend. Stochastic simulations in scrub sites suggested an optimal regular fire return interval of about 6-12 years. Regular fires at this interval were more favorable than stochastic fire regimes, but stochasticity reduced extinction percentages at longer fire return intervals. Stochastic fire return intervals implied a wider optimal fire return interval of 6-21 years. We suggest that prescribed fire in Florida scrub on yellow sand has occurred (and needs to occur) more frequently than previously recommended. 相似文献
13.
A basic element in the success of managing species of conservation concern is knowledge of the species’ habitat occupancy. Often, predictive species-habitat models are developed from GIS data sources that were intended for purposes other than predicting species habitat occupancy and are of inappropriate scale. In addition, the techniques used to quantify predictor variables from such data sources are often time consuming and cannot be repeated efficiently to reflect changing conditions. We used digital orthophotos and a grid cell classification scheme to develop an efficient technique to quantify predictor variables to model Florida scrub-jay habitat occupancy. We combined our classification scheme with a priori hypothesis development using expert knowledge and a previously published habitat suitability index and used an objective model selection procedure to choose candidate models. We classified a large area (43,000 ha) in a fraction of the time that would be required to map vegetation classes and were able to test models at varying scales using a grid-cell windowing process. Interpretation of the selected models confirmed existing knowledge of factors important to Florida scrub-jay habitat occupancy. The potential uses and advantages of using a grid cell classification scheme in conjunction with expert knowledge and an objective model selection procedure are discussed. 相似文献
14.
For many populations and species, population viability analysis (PVA) plays a critical role in developing defensible conservation strategies and recovery plans. Although technical aspects of PVA have been well scrutinized, misapplication of PVA and misinterpretation of its results have received less attention. To illustrate potential hazards of improper use of PVA we reanalyzed data from a recent study on viability of wolves in Algonquin Provincial Park (APP), Ontario, Canada. The original PVA predicted extirpation of wolves from APP and prompted both a ban on wolf harvesting in a 10-16 km buffer zone surrounding the 7571 km2 park and an intensive research program to evaluate efficacy of the ban. Our reanalysis showed that limited and imprecise wolf population density and demographic rate estimates, as well as flawed population assessment and reconstruction methods, led to overly pessimistic evaluation of wolf population status in APP. In fact, our analyses suggest that wolves in APP are unlikely to decline significantly over the next 20 years. Further, contrary to earlier conclusions we suggest that rapid wolf population recovery following protection from human exploitation would be likely and readily detectable. These findings highlight the need for adequate data, appropriate methodology, and proper analytical context when conducting PVA. Because the original PVA prompted substantial redirection of staff and financial resources from other significant conservation initiatives, we conclude that improper PVA may undermine execution of effective wildlife management and ultimately provide a disservice to conservation biology. 相似文献
15.
The endangered Australian subtropical rainforest understorey shrub Triunia robusta, is restricted to the south-east Queensland region of Australia. The potential pre-clearing and current distribution of the species was modelled by relating species presence at recorded locations to correlated abiotic and biotic factors, which in combination, were then used as a surrogate for predicting distribution of the species habitat over its known range. From a defined study area of 330,000 ha, output of geographic areas likely to contain T. robusta habitat at three levels of probability were generated for pre-clearing vegetation, and vegetation classified as remnant in 1999. Potential pre-clearing distribution was compared with potential current distribution to ascertain the likely impact of clearing of native vegetation on the extent, pattern, and contiguity of T. robusta habitat. For pre-clearing vegetation, a total area of 45,480 ha was identified as potential T. robusta habitat. For vegetation classified as 1999 remnant, 13,440 ha were identified, representing an overall reduction of 70% in potential habitat for T. robusta. The model was partially validated, with T. robusta found at six new locations. Allowing for errors from spatial mismatching, five of the sites were located within habitat patches predicted by the model. A number of local areas containing high densities of predicted habitat patches were identified to guide searches for unrecorded populations. Strategically located areas linking known populations containing suitable or potentially suitable habitat that may be available for introduction of new populations were identified. The results indicate that the species former centre of range was in lowland areas adjacent to the north arm of the Maroochy River. Clearing and fragmentation of T. robusta habitat is the most likely cause of the apparent decline in distribution and abundance of the species. 相似文献
16.
Linda M. Broadhurst Andrew G. Young Robert Forrester 《Biological conservation》2008,141(11):2843-2856
Genetic and demographic studies of fragmented populations of common plant species often reveal negative impacts that are likely to constrain persistence. Examining species that are broadly representative of functional groups within fragmented landscapes is one approach to providing a better understanding of how these processes will influence vegetation persistence. Acacias are a significant component of the Australian flora, with Acacia dealbata being a common and representative species of fragmented landscapes across New South Wales. Previous reproductive assessments of fragmented A. dealbata populations indicated significant constraints for small populations through low reproductive output mediated by fertilisation success. This study examined genetic diversity, mating system, and progeny growth parameters of the seed crops produced by these populations to assess whether further constraints to persistence could be detected. Spatially explicit simulation studies were also conducted to assess the persistence likelihood of fragmented populations. Landscape parameters such as population size and plant density were useful predictors for some of the genetic and demographic responses, but a poor response signal was generally observed. Strong evidence for a self-incompatibility mechanism was observed in A. dealbata and is likely to be the major driver of population persistence. Self-incompatibility in small populations limits mate availability and eliminates inbred progeny early in the reproductive cycle leading to poor reproductive output. The simulation data provides further evidence that mate limitation in smaller populations (<200 plants and 40 S alleles) constrains reproductive output and persistence. These data indicate that introducing new germplasm to smaller populations can dramatically improve their persistence likelihood. 相似文献
17.
Strategies are needed to recover the ocelot Leopardus pardalis from the endangered species list. Recently, a population viability analysis (PVA) was developed which concluded that combinations of different recovery strategies were needed to effectively reduce ocelot extinction probability in the United States (US), with habitat protection and restoration identified as the most effective recovery scenario. We expanded this PVA model by incorporating landscape data to develop a more realistic habitat-based PVA for ocelots in southern Texas. We used RAMAS/gis software to conduct a habitat-based PVA by linking landscape data with a demographic metapopulation model. The primary goal of this study was to provide a model for evaluating ocelot recovery strategies in the US. Each model scenario was simulated 1000 times over 50 years and we defined extinction as one individual remaining. Using the RAMAS/gis program we identified 11 possible ocelot habitat patches (i.e., subpopulations) occurring in southern Texas. In addition, based on the habitat-based PVA model we found that combinations of different recovery strategies were needed to effectively reduce ocelot extinction probability in the US, with reducing road mortality the single most effective strategy. Short-term recovery strategies should include reducing ocelot road mortality, and translocation of ocelots into the US from northern Mexico. Long-term recovery strategies should include the restoration of habitat between and around existing ocelot habitat patches and the establishment of a dispersal corridor between ocelot breeding populations. 相似文献
18.
Habitat reserves are a common strategy used to ensure viability of wildlife populations and communities. The efficacy of reserves, however, is rarely empirically evaluated. We examined the likelihood that small (650 ha), isolated habitat reserves composed of old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) rain forest (upland-OG) and mixed-conifer peatlands (peatland-MC) would sustain populations of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus) in the absence of immigration or emigration within the Tongass National Forest in Southeast Alaska. We used demographic data obtained from a study of flying squirrels on Prince of Wales Island in Southeast Alaska and litter size from flying squirrels in similar habitat to estimate per capita rate of increase (r) of flying squirrels in upland-OG (r = 0.14, SD = 0.42) and peatland-MC habitats (r = 0.01, SD = 0.39). Our results indicated that peatland-MC habitat was unlikely to sustain populations and that viability of flying squirrel populations in small habitat reserves largely depended on the upland-OG forest component. We subsequently estimated time to extinction (TN) based on r, its variance (v), and the potential population ceiling (K). We used TN to calculate the probabilities (Pt) that squirrel populations would persist in small reserves containing 100%, 50%, and 25% upland-OG habitat for 25, 50, and 100 years. In each scenario, we calculated TN and Pt for 2 levels of v. For the best-case scenario (100% upland-OG forest, lowest variance, t = 25 years), TN was 507 years and Pt was 0.95. For the worst-case scenario (25% upland-OG forest, highest variance, t = 100 years), TN was 237 years and Pt was 0.66. Minimum patch size of upland-OG forest required for a high probability (Pt = 0.95) of sustaining a flying squirrel population in isolation with relatively low demographic variability (v = 0.34) for 25, 50, or 100 years was 578, 5077, and 78,935 ha, respectively. We concluded that it was unlikely that small isolated habitat reserves could sustain populations of flying squirrels for >25 years in the absence of immigration. Consequently, dispersal among small reserves is critical to ensure that they function to support metapopulations of northern flying squirrels. 相似文献
19.
The effects of habitat fragmentation on forest bird assemblages were analysed in 214 holm oak (Quercus ilex) remnants spread across the northern and southern plateaux of central Spain. Bird richness was highly dependent on fragment area for all species regardless of isolation, and barely affected by habitat traits. Geographical location was associated with high differences in richness of bird assemblages, which included 17 species exclusive to northern remnants and one exclusive to southern remnants. This supports the hypothesis that habitat suitability deteriorates sharply from north to south for forest birds in Spain. The species-area relationships of bird assemblages sampled in fragmented forests along a broad continental gradient (from Norway to southern Spain) showed that true forest birds only nest in woodlands >100 ha in southern Spain, whereas the full complement of forest species occurs in much smaller fragments in central-western Europe. Loss of species that are particularly sensitive to habitat fragmentation accounts for these differences between dry Spanish and mesic European woodlands. These results are explained by the low habitat suitability of Spanish woodlands, associated with the restrictive conditions for plant regeneration in the Mediterranean climate and long-standing human usage. There is, therefore, a particular need to develop management strategies that conserve birds, and probably other forest organisms, in Mediterranean regions by preventing habitat deterioration and decreases in fragment size, and by conserving all woods >100 ha. 相似文献
20.
Mountain caribou, an ecotype of woodland caribou, are endangered due to the loss and fragmentation of old forests on which they depend. However, a wider array of natural and human factors may limit caribou persistence and isolate populations, and understanding these may help to stop or reverse population declines by forecasting risk and targeting core habitat areas and key linkages for protection, enhancement or restoration. Across most of the historic range of mountain caribou, we conducted a bi-level analysis to evaluate factors related to the persistence of, and landscape occupancy within, remaining subpopulations. We used caribou location data from 235 radio-collared animals across 13 subpopulations to derive a landscape occupancy index, while accounting for inherent sampling biases. We analyzed this index against 33 landscape variables of forest overstory, land cover, terrain, climate, and human influence. At the metapopulation level, the persistence of subpopulations relative to historic range was explained by the extent of wet and very wet climatic conditions, the distribution of both old (>140 yr) forests, particularly of cedar and hemlock composition, and alpine areas. Other important factors were remoteness from human presence, low road density, and little motorized access. At the subpopulation level, the relative intensity of caribou landscape occupancy within subpopulation bounds was explained by the distribution of old cedar/hemlock and spruce/subalpine fir forests and the lack of deciduous forests. Other factors impeding population contiguity were icefields, non-forested alpine, hydro reservoirs, extensive road networks, and primary highway routes. Model outputs at both levels were combined to predict the potential for mountain caribou population persistence, isolation, and restoration. We combined this output with the original occupancy index to gauge the potential vulnerability of caribou to extirpation within landscapes known to have recently supported animals. We discuss implications as they pertain to range-wide caribou population connectivity and conservation. 相似文献