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1.
Recent studies have found evidence of a local employment multiplier’s effect. For the most part, these studies provide an average estimate for all labor markets. In this paper, we examine how the average local employment multiplier, the effect of an exogenous increase in employment in the tradable sector on total employment, depends on the characteristics of the local labor market. Specifically, we estimate the average multipliers for coastal, noncoastal, large, and small metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across different time periods using the data of 333 US MSAs. Overall, we find a reduced form of local employment multiplier ranging from 1.38 to 2.24, which is within the range of typically estimated local employment multipliers. In addition, the characteristics of the local labor market matter. The local multipliers appear larger in noncoastal and large MSAs. For small and coastal metros, the multiplier is closer to 1.5 than to 2.0 while in the case of large and noncoastal metros, it is closer to 2.0 than to 1.5. The local multipliers are also sensitive to the time period considered. 相似文献
2.
ABSTRACT Proponents of petroleum industry subsidies often assert that such policies will have positive economic implications for rural communities. This paper examines the economic impacts of such a policy in Utah. Specifically, this paper quantifies the direct and indirect economic and fiscal impacts of a tax credit granted for oil and gas well workovers in Utah's Uintah Basin. The analysis is made possible by an input-output model constructed specifically for Utah's oil producing economy. The tax credit policy was found to generate a net fiscal loss for the state. However, it does generate employment in the Uintah Basin. The total per job cost to the state of generating an average of one job per year for 5 years through the tax credit policy is $24,056 (1991 dollars). However, if the public expenditure impacts are taken into account, then the cost per job could be as high as $48,423 (1991 dollars). Whether there are other ways to generate the same employment gains at a lower cost was lost in the political debate surrounding this petroleum industry tax credit. 相似文献
3.
Location Quotients are used to estimate economic base multipliers for two-digit Standard Industrial Classification employment data at the county level for the state of Florida. Changes in multipliers are contrasted to changes in county employment profiles and demographic trends for the period 1982 to 1987. Counties are then classified by employment and growth characteristics. A cross-sectional econometric model is constructed to explain regional shifts in total employment. It is demonstrated that although the Florida economy is supported by a low level of employment activity in primary and secondary sectors (relative to the tertiary sector), these sectors tend to be very important in explaining variations in regional economic growth. The empirical findings suggest that the alleged service-oriented economy of Florida is still reliant upon export-oriented activity as the catalyst for employment expansion. 相似文献
4.
Kleiner MM 《Growth and change》1982,13(3):43-48
"This paper tests whether persons in highly skilled and higher-income occupations (who include professionals, managers, salespersons, clerical workers, and craftsworkers) are more likely to migrate when they perceive economic opportunities than persons in the lesser skilled and lower-income ones (who include operatives, transport workers, laborers, and service workers). "A simultaneous equations model of migration and employment change is specified for the nine major occupations defined in the U.S. census, and this model is estimated using occupation-specific data....This study is limited to an investigation of the impact of migration on a variable that was deemed to have been a significant determinant of the direction and magnitude of migration; this variable is occupation-related employment change by industry.... In order to analyze the migration response of persons in different occupations to varying economic conditions, this paper [includes] sections on theory and model specification, empirical results, and conclusions." Data are from the 1970 census. 相似文献
5.
Five versions of a regional economic forecasting and simulation model are implemented to evaluate the forecasting accuracy and significance for impact analysis of alternative regional labor market closures. The five versions correspond to the following specifications: downward-sloped labor demand and upward-sloped labor supply, vertical labor demand and upward-sloped labor supply, an input-output version, and two general equilibrium configurations of labor demand and supply. It is found that the estimated impacts of an exogenous employment stimulus differ greatly across the model versions. Also, post-sample forecasts for 1981-1988 are run for the fifty states plus Washington D.C. with each model version to test their relative forecast accuracy. The forecast comparison shows that the general equilibrium version that specifies inelastic supply is inferior to the other versions for short-term forecasts of wage rates and long-term employment forecasts. For both short- and long-run population forecasts, the versions with completely immobile labor are more accurate than those with completely mobile labor. However, versions that specify an upward-sloped labor supply (partial labor supply adjustment) are the most accurate. 相似文献
6.
STANLEY R. KEIL 《Growth and change》1992,23(4):469-493
The purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of homothetic reformulations of the shift-share accounting model to the practitioner of regional growth studies. The reformulations of Esteban-Marquillas (1972) and Arcelus (1984) are examined to determine if they improve the shift-share framework as a means for accounting for regional economic growth or decline. The purpose of the homothetic models is to separate out change in a region's employment (or value added) associated with its prior or base year specialization in particular industries from change associated with changes in the mix of industries that occurred during the period under study. It is contended while the resulting accounts may help in understanding individual industry's growth rates, they shed little light on total regional growth. Indiana employment data from 1977 and 1986 are used to illustrate the arguments. 相似文献
7.
Open economy multipliers, at the community level, capture only a portion of the system-wide impact of changes in local autonomous spending. Multiplier effects for the central place system will include the community-specific multiplier, where the autonomous expenditure was initiated, plus all of the cross-community multiplier effects generated through linkages among communities in the hierarchy. Import leakages, in the form of shopping at higher levels, result in “filtering up” of expenditure increases initiated at lower levels of the system. In an earlier paper (Olfert and Stabler 1994), community-level multipliers for a central place system in the Great Plains were estimated. In this paper, the distribution of direct and induced spending, resulting from autonomous spending increases initiated at particular levels of a central place hierarchy, is derived and empirically estimated over all levels of the hierarchy. Building on (1) own-community level multipliers, (2) an exhaustive set of cross-community multipliers are derived and empirically estimated. The combination of own- and cross-community multipliers produces (3) system-wide multipliers that show the system-wide impact of spending initiated at any level in the hierarchy. Finally, (4) level-specific impact multipliers resulting from autonomous spending originating at any (every) level in the system are calculated. Results indicate that the induced impact of autonomous expenditure increases anywhere in the system will be the greatest at the top of the hierarchy, that autonomous increases at higher levels have a larger local impact than they do at lower levels, and that equal expenditure increases across the hierarchy will have a disproportionate impact at the top of the hierarchy, as well, dueto a combination of higher own-community multipliers and spending up the hierarchy by residents of lower level centers. 相似文献
8.
ABSTRACT The success of economic development initiatives in achieving a significant and sustained improvement for a target area is strongly influenced by the size of the local multiplier. New economic activity is generally site specific and the proportion of spending and re-spending that generates local multiplier effect will vary with the hierarchical level of community in which the activity is located. Leakages in the form of outshopping by community residents and expenditures in the community that constitute payments to agents outside the home community are estimated for communities in six functional levels that, combined, represent the complete trade center hierarchy in Saskatchewan. The resulting multipliers are found to vary with functional level, with the smallest communities having the smallest multipliers. When rural areas are being targeted for economic development, more rural economic activity can be generated by focusing on relatively large rural communities. 相似文献
9.
Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further globally. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of conflicts with other important land uses and ecosystem services. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production in the Niger Delta, Nigeria.The objectives of this study are to (1) establish a better understanding of the existing yield potentials of oil palm areas that could be used for integrated assessment models, (2) quantify for the first time uncertainties in yield potentials arising from the use of climate output data from different Global Circulation Models (GCM’s) with varied West African Monsoon (WAM) system representations forced to the same Regional Climate Models (RCM’s). We use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate spatially variable impacts of climate change on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. Our results show that the impact of climate change on oil palm yield is considerable across our study region. The yield differences between the IPCC RCPs were small. The net impact of climate change on oil palm is positive and is dynamically inconsistent. There is no significant change in the simulated yield arising from the differences in the forcing’s data. We found the most effective strategy for oil palm yield optimization under climate change to be shifting of sowing dates and introduction of irrigation. 相似文献
10.
Regional Growth Dynamics in the Service Sector: The Determinants of Employment Change in UK Regions, 1971–2005 
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下载免费PDF全文 There is a need to better understand the dynamics relating to the evolving economic structure of regions, in particular factors concerning deindustrialisation and the growth of services. In order to unpick the dynamics relating to contemporary regional evolution, this paper examines regional employment in the UK's services sectors from 1971 to 2005. The analysis utilises the statistical technique of multi‐factor partitioning to examine the evolutionary dynamics of employment change in the UK service sector. Overall, differing growth trajectories in services employment across regions appear to be the result of the different underlying industrial structures observed within the regions themselves. The findings indicate that the industrial structure of a region has a significant influence on employment change in services, with related variety being of greater consequence than specialisation. This suggests that diversity, or urbanisation, effects have a greater influence than specialisation effects on “lighter” industries than “heavier” industries. Spatio‐temporal variations within the development of services are evident in the analysis, and there is evidence of convergence across the regions for all sub‐sectors examined. It concludes that in an increasingly services‐dominated economy, diversity and related variety have some weight in explaining regional development paths. 相似文献
11.
MARK S. HENRY BERTRAND SCHMITT KNUD KRISTENSEN DAVID L. BARKLEY SHUMING BAO 《Growth and change》1999,30(4):526-548
ABSTRACT A modification of the Boamet model of local economic change is developed that links the growth of urban nodes in functional economic regions to employment and population change in the rural hinterlands of these regions. The two-equation model uses labor market and residential zone observations that are consistent with commuter fields around each rural community in the regions studied. The model parameters are estimated for 204 Danish rural municipalities, for 3515 rural communes in six regions of Eastern France, and for 268 rural census tracts in South Carolina. Results indicate that urban nodal spread effects are often significant and tend to dominate urban backwash impacts on rural communities. Accordingly, rural communities need to be concerned with the economic fortunes of their urban nodes and with policies that affect the pattern of urban growth between urban center and the urban fringe. 相似文献
12.
: Differentials in U.S. state unemployment rates were persistent in the early 1990s. In addition, states with higher employment growth did not necessarily have the lowest unemployment rates. Thus, this paper examines the differentials in U.S. state unemployment rates from 1992 to 1994, decomposing them into the parts that were due to differences in recent employment growth, and those that were due to longer-term equilibrium factors. Also, using the shift-share model, employment growth differences are decomposed into an industry mix component and a competitiveness component. The decomposition of the 1992 to 1994 unemployment rate differentials is based on an econometric equation estimated using panel data from 1972 to 1991. Explanatory equilibrium factors included in the model are amenities, demographic characteristics, education, industry composition, labor mobility, and wage rates. 相似文献
13.
Interindustry employment requirements are examined in nonmetropolitan communities ranging in population size between 1,000 and 15,000. A ten-sector economic base model is first used to estimate the demand for nonbasic employment in five different functional types of communities. A new and improved method for community impact assessment is then outlined. Here a distance-weighting procedure is applied to the various type-specific estimates of nonbasic employment so that a composite employment requirements matrix can be calculated for any study community. Finally, postimpact interindustry requirements are decomposed into two effects: preimpact employment requirements plus nonbasic employment shifts reflecting structural change. All estimates and findings are based on the Arizona Community Data Set. 相似文献
14.
ABSTRACT Interest in the use of adjustment models has recently increased as analysts have come to see the value of these models in the study of regional growth processes. Adjustment models are especially useful in clarifying the nature and direction of population-employment interactions. However, other models of regional growth suggest that employment should not be treated as a single homogeneous variable, as is the usual assumption in regional adjustment models. This paper looks at the issue of employment disaggregation, and suggests that adjustment models can be alternatively specified by making use of economic base theory to separate employment into at least two broad sectors. Alternative economic base specifications are tested using data for the nonmetropolitan counties (n=254) of the US. Rocky Mountain West during a recent time period. The results show that an economic base version of the adjustment model provides insights to regional change that are not available from the traditional version of the model. 相似文献
15.
ABSTRACT The results of this study confirm the expected positive relationship between economic development agency spending and employment growth among the states. Furthermore, it is concluded that past studies, by failing to control for state economic development agency spending in estimated regression equations, have underestimated the negative impact of personal taxes on employment growth. 相似文献
16.
GREGORY D. WOZNIAK 《Growth and change》1990,21(3):61-76
The purpose of this paper is to construct monthly manufacturing output indexes for a metropolitan area, employing a method used by the Federal Reserve Banks to construct regional manufacturing indexes. The Tulsa metropolitan area is the region considered. The index of total manufacturing output is included in a vector autoregression model of the Tulsa economy. The results indicate that the linkages between manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing employment differ from the linkages between employment in those sectors, and that since the early 1980s both sectors have become less sensitive to changes in the price of oil. 相似文献
17.
DAVID L. RIGBY 《Growth and change》1992,23(4):405-427
Traditional univariate shift-share studies of employment provide an unreliable indicator of the relative performance of a region or an industry for they fail to separate the effects of output and productivity change on the demand for labor. An extended shift-share model is proposed that overcomes this weakness and permits identification of different processes of regional development. This model is used to investigate annual employment change in twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing industries in nine census regions of the U.S. between 1950 and 1986. The timing and depth of the exodus of manufacturing jobs from the snowbelt to the sunbelt is illustrated along with the business cycle performance of industries and regions. Productivity growth in the sunbelt is positively associated with rapid output expansion, whereas in the snowbelt it is associated with the loss of market share and economic rationalization. 相似文献
18.
This paper studies the behavior of velocity of money in China from 1980 to 2000, the result shows the long-run velocity of money is declined, but the short-run velocity of money is fluctuated with economic periods. We consider the main determinants of circulation velocity to be financial development, economic system, and economic periods. 相似文献
19.
在露天开采过程中遇到断层时,由于煤层突然错位,造成剥采比剧变,工程接续困难。因此,过断层期间剥采比合理控制和矿山工程平稳过渡接续是露天开采的技术难题之一。笔者通过建立剥采比与断层落差、产状及煤层厚度数学模型,研究不同煤柱留设宽度对边坡稳定的影响;分析了矿山工程发展速度与同时采煤台阶数的关系,计算确定了过断层期间确保矿山工程平稳过渡接续的动态降深速度和生产能力接续方式。结合胜利东二号露天矿过F61断层进行实例研究。结果表明：过断层开采方式和生产能力接续方法可有效均衡生产剥采比,保证产量稳定,提高矿山经济效益。 相似文献
20.
The Marketplace Fairness Act (S. 743) recently passed by the U.S. Senate may portend a national move toward states imposing sales taxes for business‐to‐consumer e‐retail purchases. While much of the policy debate surrounding this question has focused on trade creation versus diversion, there are likely distinct compositional effects at the state level, which will affect both economic activity and tax revenue. Consumers are clearly hurt by an online sales tax. However, such a policy would seemingly benefit state tax coffers, as well as traditional brick‐and‐mortar retailers and their employees. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model approach to get a better understanding of the state‐level income, employment, and tax revenue effects of such a policy shift, in particular the likely tradeoffs between these three traditional economic targets across reasonable ranges of price elasticities. 相似文献