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1.
ABSTRACT The traditional shift-share model measures the combined effects of output growth and productivity change on employment. A region with above average employment growth either has a favorable industry mix or enjoys a competitive advantage over other regions. To separate the effects of output and productivity, the shift-share model is extended to decompose the effects of changes in output and productivity on employment. This paper modifies the Rigby-Anderson extension by separating the contribution of labor and capital to productivity growth in the analysis of regional economic performance, and investigates twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing sectors in twelve states (six snowbelt, six sunbelt states) to assess whether observed changes in employment were due to changes in output or to productivity. 相似文献
2.
STANLEY R. KEIL 《Growth and change》1992,23(4):469-493
The purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of homothetic reformulations of the shift-share accounting model to the practitioner of regional growth studies. The reformulations of Esteban-Marquillas (1972) and Arcelus (1984) are examined to determine if they improve the shift-share framework as a means for accounting for regional economic growth or decline. The purpose of the homothetic models is to separate out change in a region's employment (or value added) associated with its prior or base year specialization in particular industries from change associated with changes in the mix of industries that occurred during the period under study. It is contended while the resulting accounts may help in understanding individual industry's growth rates, they shed little light on total regional growth. Indiana employment data from 1977 and 1986 are used to illustrate the arguments. 相似文献
3.
This paper extends the traditional shift-share model to incorporate international effects. While some industries compete nationally for markets, other compete internationally. For industries competing nationally, regional growth derives from regional superiority relative to the national economy. For those competing internationally, regional growth is tied to regional advantages from specialization and competitive advantage relative to the international economy. Building on the Esteban - Marquillas concept of homothetic employment, the international shift-share model identifies regional growth due to regional and national competitive advantage and regional and national specialization. We demonstrate that the international model retains the property of region to region additivity. 相似文献
4.
以1995-2009年统计数据为基础,利用偏离-份额分析法（SSM）重点探究了中部地区的产业结构演替与经济增长之间的关系,为各省调整产业结构、促进中部崛起提供理论指导。结果表明：1.中部地区产业结构变化总体与产业结构演进的一般规律相符。2.中部地区产业结构演替对经济发展的影响情况分为：江西和安徽产业结构偏离为负,竞争力偏离份额为负;山西和河南产业结构偏离为正,竞争力偏离份额为负;湖北和湖南产业结构偏离为负,竞争力偏离份额为正等3种类型。3.产业结构变迁对各省经济增长的影响差异较大。 相似文献
5.
This study proposes a weighted spatial dynamic shift-share model that considers two regional attributes, namely, interregional interactions and regional receptive capabilities for domestic and international economic change, to improve the forecasting capability of the traditional shift-share model. In particular, the spatial dependence among regions is embodied by a spatial weight matrix based on contiguity. Additionally, regional receptive capabilities are represented by weights imposed on regional industries. Forecasts over the period of 2014–2016 are made for 14 regions in South Korea using the proposed model. The results are compared with actual data from the same period and evaluated in terms of the mean absolute percentage error. The results indicate that the proposed model is more reliable and accurate than the traditional model and other dynamic extensions. 相似文献
6.
The purpose of this paper is to explain changes in regional attractiveness as measured by the competitive component of the shift-share model. This is done by applying the shift-share model to the manufacturing sector in the province of Quebec and using time series data for twenty two-digit industries as the basis of analysis. The study concludes that shift-share is useful for analyzing historical employment patterns and identifying their causes through regression analysis. However, the inherent structural instability limits the predictive potential of the model. 相似文献
7.
Alicia Gómez-Tello María José Murgui-García María Teresa Sanchis-Llopis 《Growth and change》2020,51(4):1491-1516
This paper analyses thse evolution of productivity disparities across 156 European regions in the period 2000–2015. Using regional data, a battery of inequality indexes enables us to assess the extent of regional disparities. After confirming that labour productivity is the main component of income disparities, a dynamic shift-share analysis is carried out at a 10-industry level of disaggregation. The study evaluates the relative role of the three components underlying the disparities in regional productivity: changes in the industry mix, and within- and between-industry productivity gaps. The main results can be summarised as follows. First, regional disparities are on the rise again in the EU. Second, most regions are now closer to the average, while a small group of the richest regions are moving further away. Third, the main drivers of productivity disparities are within-industry differences in labour productivity with regard to the richest regions and, less importantly, the specialisation of the richest regions in more progressive industries. Finally, the net effect of structural change is still making a positive contribution to convergence with the leading regions. 相似文献
8.
Shift‐share analysis is a decomposition technique widely used in regional studies to quantify an industry‐mix effect and a competitive effect on the growth of regional employment (or any other relevant variable) relative to the national average. This technique has always been subject to criticism for its lack of theoretical basis. This paper presents a critical assessment of the methods suggested by Dunn and Esteban‐Marquillas and proposes a new shift‐share method, which separates out the two effects unambiguously. By way of illustration, we provide an application to manufacturing employment in the Belgian provinces between 1995 and 2007. 相似文献
9.
Employment Growth by Firm Size During the Recent Crisis in Italy: A Multifactor Partitioning Analysis 
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下载免费PDF全文 The effects on employment growth in firms, grouped by size class, of the economic crisis that began in 2008 are analysed using multifactor partitioning (MFP). Italy's employment growth is decomposed into four explanatory factors: the stage in the business cycle; the effect of firm size; industry composition; and regional distribution; together with the interactions among these four effects. The interpretation of these effects is facilitated by the introduction within the MFP framework of a new decomposition of several key elements. The results show that the adopted approach and the suggested decompositions are useful to study the effect of size on employment change. This effect is found to be negative only for micro units (with less than 10 employees). For the other classes, it is positive. The observed negative changes in these classes are mainly due to the business cycle and an unfavourable industrial composition. 相似文献
10.
Charlie Karlsson 《Growth and change》1999,30(2):184-212
In this paper two basic theories within spatial industrial dynamics—the filtering-down theory and the spatial product cycle theory—are used to explain processes of spatial decentralization and centralization of economic activities. In particular, a case is made for the idea that employment decentralization should be expected not only for growing and maturing manufacturing industries but also for growing and maturing service industries. Based upon this theoretical framework the empirical part of the paper analysis the spatial behavior during the period 1980 to 1993 of the employment in a group of 19 industries in Sweden—the so-called urban growth industries—with an expected high potential for employment decentralization. Most of the industries exhibited the expected pattern of employment decentralization with the larger medium-sized regions as the main winners. A shift-share analysis shows that the overall magnitudes of the competitive shift components are rather small and that, hence, Sweden during the period 1980–1993 did not experience a drastic change in the spatial distribution of its urban growth industries. 相似文献
11.
ABSTRACT This paper focuses on cyclical and regional variations in vacancy dynamics in labor markets with persistent imbalances between demand and supply. In particular the so-called matching approach is used to investigate labor market efficiency across regions and over the business cycle. In this matching approach the relationship between the flow of filled vacancies and regional stocks of unemployed job seekers and vacant jobs is specified in a “search production” function. The matching approach is applied to the Dutch labor market, which is characterized by strong disequilibria and persistent regional differences in unemployment and vacancy rates. To explore the development of these regional imbalances from a demand side perspective, the dynamic structure of regional data on vacancies is analyzed over the business cycle. The movements of vacancy duration and the change in the vacancy stock over time appear to be similar across Dutch regions. Moreover, an investigation of the structural causes of regional variations in vacancy duration via shift-share analysis makes clear that regional differences in sectoral composition of unfilled vacancies do not contribute to regional differences in vacancy duration in the period 1989–93. Estimation results of a matching model reveal that there are no region-specific differences in labor market efficiency to produce filled vacancies. The ratio of vacancies to unemployment appears to be the critical determinant of the matching process in the Dutch regions. Another general (non region-specific) finding is that the estimated labor market efficiency increases during recessionary and recovery periods while it decreases during an economic boom. 相似文献
12.
The British Government’s economic strategy for post‐Brexit Britain of achieving balanced regional growth by “driving growth across the whole country” echoes the objectives set by the Barlow Report of 1940. The regional policies that followed the Barlow Report were heavily influenced by papers written for the Commission by G D A (later Sir Donald) MacDougall. The first of these papers was included as an appendix to the report itself and introduced the shift‐share methodology to the analysis of regional employment growth, and subsequently shown to be flawed. The second paper considered the urban hierarchy and growth but was never fully developed. Consequently post‐war regional policy focussed on the contribution of industrial structure to employment growth without fully taking into account the urban hierarchy or regional locations of that employment. This article replaces the flawed shift‐share methodology with multifactor partitioning (MFP) and applies it to regional employment growth for the period 1971‐2012, a span of special interest because it largely coincides with British membership of the European Union (EU). The deficiencies in the second paper are addressed by introducing allometry to measure the employment growth of each region relative to that of Great Britain and then regression analysis to relate the allometries to distance from London. The results of the two sets of analyses highlight the need for a multiple‐factor, comprehensive, and integrated approach to regional policy and provide a benchmark against which to gauge the success of Britain's post‐Brexit policy of driving future growth across the whole country. 相似文献
13.
Considerations in Extending Shift-Share Analysis: Note 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
One of the limitations to the widespread use of the Esteban-Marquillas shift-share extension has been the Stokes (1974) proof of the lack of regional additivity of the Esteban-Marquillas competitive components. Since the Arcelus extension (1984) of the traditional shift-share decomposition is a continuation of the logical framework by Esteban-Marquillas (1972), the Stokes criticism would at first appear to have equal relevance to this new work. This note demonstrates that the relationship between the rate of growth of the larger region and the rates of growth of its constituent subregions is ignored in the Stokes criticism and in the subsequent critique by Beaudry and Martin (1979). By explicitly incorporating the relationship between the rate of growth of the larger region and the rates of growth of the constituent subregions, we also demonstrate that the recent shift-share extensions by Esteban-Marquillas and Arcelus share with the classical shift-share decomposition the desirable additive properties under regional disaggregation of the data. 相似文献
14.
ABSTRACT A growing literature has accumulated that points to the stability of industrial location patterns. Can this be reconciled with spatial dynamics? This article starts with the premise that demonstrable regularities exist in the manner in which individual industries locate (and relocate) over space. For Canada, spatial distributions of employment are examined for seventy‐one industries over a thirty‐year period (1971–2001). Industry data is organized by “synthetic regions” based on urban size and distance criteria. “Typical” location patterns are identified for industry groupings. Industrial spatial concentrations are then compared over time using correlation analysis, showing a high degree of stability. Stable industrial location patterns are not, the article finds, incompatible with differential regional growth. Five spatial processes are identified, driving change. The chief driving force is the propensity of dynamic industries to start up in large metro areas, setting off a process of diffusion (for services) and crowding out (for manufacturing), offset by the centralizing impact of greater consumer mobility and falling transport costs. These changes do not, however, significantly alter the relative spatial distribution of most industries over time. 相似文献
15.
: Differentials in U.S. state unemployment rates were persistent in the early 1990s. In addition, states with higher employment growth did not necessarily have the lowest unemployment rates. Thus, this paper examines the differentials in U.S. state unemployment rates from 1992 to 1994, decomposing them into the parts that were due to differences in recent employment growth, and those that were due to longer-term equilibrium factors. Also, using the shift-share model, employment growth differences are decomposed into an industry mix component and a competitiveness component. The decomposition of the 1992 to 1994 unemployment rate differentials is based on an econometric equation estimated using panel data from 1972 to 1991. Explanatory equilibrium factors included in the model are amenities, demographic characteristics, education, industry composition, labor mobility, and wage rates. 相似文献
16.
DAVID L. RIGBY 《Growth and change》1992,23(4):405-427
Traditional univariate shift-share studies of employment provide an unreliable indicator of the relative performance of a region or an industry for they fail to separate the effects of output and productivity change on the demand for labor. An extended shift-share model is proposed that overcomes this weakness and permits identification of different processes of regional development. This model is used to investigate annual employment change in twenty (two-digit SIC) manufacturing industries in nine census regions of the U.S. between 1950 and 1986. The timing and depth of the exodus of manufacturing jobs from the snowbelt to the sunbelt is illustrated along with the business cycle performance of industries and regions. Productivity growth in the sunbelt is positively associated with rapid output expansion, whereas in the snowbelt it is associated with the loss of market share and economic rationalization. 相似文献
17.
Facilitating entrepreneurship to address regional income disparity continues to be a major concern of policy makers across the globe. This study explores the temporal pattern of income disparity for Canadian provinces in two estimation steps. First, an econometric growth regression model is applied to identify the impact of entrepreneurship on regional economic growth. The estimation results suggest that entrepreneurship, measured in terms of the self‐employment rate, plays a pivotal role in determining regional development in Canada. Second, a dynamic vector autoregression model is employed to simulate long‐run regional growth effects that result from policy shocks affecting entrepreneurship. Compared to other growth drivers, entrepreneurship is found to have more pronounced and long‐term stimulative effects on regional development for the period of 1987–2007. 相似文献
18.
ABSTRACT Interest in the use of adjustment models has recently increased as analysts have come to see the value of these models in the study of regional growth processes. Adjustment models are especially useful in clarifying the nature and direction of population-employment interactions. However, other models of regional growth suggest that employment should not be treated as a single homogeneous variable, as is the usual assumption in regional adjustment models. This paper looks at the issue of employment disaggregation, and suggests that adjustment models can be alternatively specified by making use of economic base theory to separate employment into at least two broad sectors. Alternative economic base specifications are tested using data for the nonmetropolitan counties (n=254) of the US. Rocky Mountain West during a recent time period. The results show that an economic base version of the adjustment model provides insights to regional change that are not available from the traditional version of the model. 相似文献
19.
FRANCESC HERNANDEZ‐SANCHO VICENT SOLER‐MARCO RAMÓN SALA‐GARRIDO VICENT ALMENAR‐LLONGO 《Growth and change》2012,43(2):179-197
A series of works have analysed differential behaviour in terms of productive efficiency between companies inside a hypothetical industrial district and those outside the district. This objective has been addressed using measures of technical efficiency. The results obtained provide valuable information for quantifying the district effect at a given moment in time. However, constant changes in the market and business behaviour mean that it is worthwhile studying the business district effect from a dynamic point of view. In this study, we provide this new vision through the use of Malmquist productivity indices. This methodology enables us to analyse possible differential evolutions by comparing the productive efficiency of companies inside and outside a district over a period of time. An empirical application has been made on a set of small and medium‐sized Spanish ceramic producers during the period of economic expansion between 1996 and 2007. 相似文献
20.
基于信息熵的庄浪县土地利用结构变化及其驱动力分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
为研究庄浪县土地利用结构动态变化情况,促进土地资源的合理利用和可持续发展,基于庄浪县1997—2012年土地利用变更数据以及经济社会统计数据,采用信息熵、均衡度和优势度原理,分析庄浪县土地利用结构的动态演变特征,并运用主成分分析方法对影响庄浪县土地利用结构动态演变的驱动力进行分析。结果表明：1997—2012年,庄浪县土地利用结构信息熵总体呈先上升后下降再上升的波浪式趋势变化,表明各区域的土地利用系统仍处于较大程度的开发中。耕地、林地及未利用地面积所占比例的高低,是影响庄浪县土地利用结构信息熵的主要因素。人口经济发展状况、城市化、产业结构是庄浪县土地利用结构变化的主要驱动力。 相似文献