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高致病性禽流感(HPAI)是一种严重威胁我国肉禽养殖业健康持续发展的重大疫病。肉禽养殖场对HPAI传入和传播风险因素的识别与控制,对于有效防止HPAI疫情的暴发和传播,促进肉禽养殖业的健康和持续发展具有重要现实意义。本研究通过文献研究和专家咨询,对肉禽养殖场HPAI传入和传播风险因素进行研究,确定了12项I级指标和94项Ⅱ级指标,构建了肉禽养殖场HPAI传入和传播风险因素框架;借助层次分析软件YAAHP V10.3,对各风险指标权重进行逐级计算,并完成了一致性检验。计算结果显示:总排序一致性检验系数CR=0.021 0,各Ⅱ级指标排序一致性检验系数CR≤0.036 0,符合权重判断矩阵的要求。本模型的建立可为肉禽养殖场的HPAI传入和传播风险控制提供参考依据。 相似文献
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为明确浙江省高致病性禽流感(HPAI)发生的风险水平,我们开展了相关风险因子调查和分析工作.本研究将风险因子等级分为高、较高、中和低4个风险等级,对母源抗体、免疫抗体、家禽密度、饲养设施、禽类混养、饲养场地理位置、水禽和迁徙鸟、活禽市场等风险因子进行了定量评估.通过权重赋值评估浙江省发生的HPAI的风险水平为0.66875,判定为中等,提示浙江省发生禽流感疫情的可能性时刻存在.通过风险因子分析,发现了高致病禽流感防控工作中存在的薄弱环节,明确今后工作的重点,为浙江省HPAI管理和决策提供了依据. 相似文献
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影响高致病性禽流感传播的因素众多,增加了免疫预防工作的难度。为了减少防控工作的被动性和盲目性,有必要对这些风险因子进行识别,并形成总体风险评估的标准。本文通过统计分析已发生的高致病性禽流感相关数据,确定了高致病性禽流感发生的主要风险因素,并通过层次分析法确定各风险因素的层内权重和总体权重,从而通过对已发生的高致病性禽流感相关数据的统计分析,结合头脑风暴法,确定高致病性禽流感发生的风险因素,并通过层次分析法确定各风险因素的权重,建立了高致病性禽流感免疫风险评估模型。该模型实现了对国内养殖机构的高致病性禽流感发生风险的定量评价,从而有效地指导有关机构的防控工作。 相似文献
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高致病性禽流感(HPAI)是严重威胁我国禽养殖业健康持续发展的重大疫病。养殖场是禽类的高聚集区,存在较大的HPAI潜在暴发风险。本文在已有研究文献基础上,按照流行病学和风险关键控制点原则,从养殖场层面,分析提出了HPAI的主要传入风险因素及控制措施。分析认为,野生鸟类及相关区域、易感动物及相关场所、种蛋/雏鸡、水源、饲料、流通运输及运输工具、人员、消毒剂及疫苗等投入品是主要风险因素,需要针对这些因素,从场区规划布局、屏障建设、日常饲养、制度管理4个方面,采取相应生物安全措施,以降低禽养殖场HPAI的传入风险。 相似文献
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高致病性禽流感(HPAI)必须通过疫苗免疫才可获得免疫预防,而了解本地区鸡、鸭禽流感的免疫抗体水平情况,对减少该类疫病的发生具有重大意义.本文主要对长汀县2014-2016年H5亚型禽流感免疫抗体检测结果进行分析和总结. 相似文献
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为了降低规模奶牛场结核病的传播风险,在研究和确定影响奶牛场结核病传播和流行因素的基础上,采用“德尔菲法”,从场址位置、场内布局、设施设备、饲养管理及卫生防疫、人员管理、监测和疫情发生史、经济因素等7个方面选出48项为风险因子,并确定每项因子的权重,用“定性风险分析”方法将风险级别划分为“高风险”、“中等风险”和“低风险”3个级别,从而建立“规模化奶牛场结核病风险评估模型”.通过验证和初步应用,表明该模型可以用来评价规模化奶牛场对结核病的防控水平,有利于对规模化奶牛场开展结核病风险管理工作. 相似文献
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【目的】实现对动物布鲁氏菌病发生的风险评估,为制定科学有效的控制策略提供依据。【方法】通过进行动物布鲁氏菌病流行病学调查和风险因素分析,以及查阅动物疫病防治历史资料和档案,筛选确定动物布鲁氏菌病发生的风险因素;利用专家评分法确定各风险因素的权重;应用多指标综合评价法计算评估结果。【结果】建立了由评估指标体系、风险因素量化评价标准、指标权重、综合评分方法组成的动物布鲁氏菌病发生风险评估框架。【结论】利用该风险评估框架可进行风险因素的综合分析,实现对动物布鲁氏菌病疫情发生风险的定量评估。 相似文献
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中国大陆高致病性禽流感发生风险定量评估 总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8
动物疫病风险评估是疫情防控的一个重要环节.本研究利用本实验室所建立的风险评估框架,对中国大陆2 369个县/市2006年1月至12月份高高致病性禽流感(HPAI)发生风险进行了定量评估,并利用疫情数据对评估结果进行了验证.结果显示在3月、4月、10月和11月高风险地区数量多、分布广,在华中、华北、西北和东北均有分布;1月、2月、5月、9月和12月HPAI高风险地区的数量相对较少,1月、2月和12月份主要分布在华南,5月和9月主要分布在华北和东北;6月、7月和8月HPAI高风险地区数量最少,而且分布集中,主要分布在青藏高原地区.通过对2006年疫情与评估结果的相关性分析发现,发生疫情的县/市当月的风险评估结果相对较高.本研究结果表明,HPAI定量风险评估方法对HPAI在大范围内发生风险进行定量评估具有可行性,该方法通过进一步优化可望应用于中国HPAI防控决策方面的研究. 相似文献
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甘南高寒草地放牧系统生态风险的AHP决策分析及管理对策 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
本研究从生态经济学角度,系统探讨了制约高寒草地畜牧业可持续发展的主要风险因素及其时空变化特征,剖析了生态风险分析内涵,应用多层次的AHP(analytichierarchyprocess)决策分析方法,对甘南玛曲高寒草地放牧系统的生态风险进行了综合评价分析。结果表明,在导致高寒草地植被退化、土地沙漠化的诸风险因素中,长期超载放牧是主要风险因素,其权重达0.4803;其次是全球气候变化造成的降水减少风险和鼠害、虫害风险,其权重分别为0.2902和0.1558;人类其他不当活动(挖药材、采矿等)的风险影响较小,其权重仅为0.0737。在研究区风险防范的诸管理措施中,围栏轮牧(降低放牧强度)措施和针对严重退化草地实施的补播、施肥、封育等综合措施的效果最佳,其相应组合权重分别为0.3060和0.2661;灭鼠和建植人工草地等措施均有一定的效果。基于上述风险评价分析,提出了高寒草地放牧系统生态风险防范的主要管理对策与措施,为草地资源保护与可持续利用提供定量依据。 相似文献
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高致病性禽流感(HPAI)是唯一能够在短时间内导致世界范围大流行的动物传染病.自2004年1月我国首次报道HPAI病例以来,湖北省2004～2005年连续2年发生了13起HPAI疫情,2006年4月18日经卫生部确认在湖北省境内发生首例人感染HPAI病例,给该省经济发展、社会稳定以及人们身体健康安全造成重大影响.从分析HPAIV病原学特性出发,结合该省HPAI防控工作实际,阐述了HPAI发生与流行基本特点,HPAI防控的公共卫生意义,提出了防控HPAI的基本对策和建议. 相似文献
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Mathilde Paul Saraya Tavornpanich David Abrial Patrick Gasqui Myriam Charras-Garrido Weerapong Thanapongtharm Xiangming Xiao Marius Gilbert Francois Roger Christian Ducrot 《Veterinary research》2010,41(3)
Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained. 相似文献
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Timothée Vergne Mathilde C. Paul Wanida Chaengprachak Benoit Durand Marius Gilbert Barbara Dufour François Roger Suwicha Kasemsuwan Vladimir Grosbois 《Preventive veterinary medicine》2014
Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts. 相似文献
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Based on the HPAI experience, efforts to improve global capacity to prevent and control zoonotic diseases should consider new and more efficient models for integrating prevention and surveillance activities. 相似文献
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Theodore J.D. Knight-Jones Ruth Hauser Doris Matthes Katharina D.C. St?rk 《Veterinary research》2010,41(4)
This study aimed to assess which method of wild waterbird surveillance had the greatest probability of detecting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 during a period of surveillance activity, the cost of each method was also considered. Lake Constance is a major wintering centre for migratory waterbirds and in 2006 it was the site of an HPAI H5N1 epidemic in wild birds. Avian influenza surveillance was conducted using harmonised approaches in the three countries around the lake, Austria, Germany and Switzerland, from 2006–2009. The surveillance consisted of testing birds sampled by the following methods: live birds caught in traps, birds killed by hunters, birds caught in fishing nets, dead birds found by the public and catching live Mute Swans (Cygnus olor); sentinel flocks of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were also used. Scenario tree analysis was performed including sensitivity analysis, followed by assessment of cost-effectiveness. Results indicated that if HPAI H5N1 was present at 1% prevalence and assuming HPAI resulted in bird mortality, sampling dead birds found by the public and sentinel surveillance were the most sensitive approaches despite residual uncertainty over some parameters. The uncertainty over the mortality of infected birds was an influential factor. Sampling birds found dead was most cost-effective, but strongly dependent on mortality and awareness of the public. Trapping live birds was least cost-effective. Based on our results, we recommend that future HPAI H5N1 surveillance around Lake Constance should prioritise sentinel surveillance and, if high mortality is expected, the testing of birds found dead. 相似文献
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SK Shaheenur Islam Holy Akwar Md. Mehedi Hossain Md. Abu Sufian Md. Zakiul Hasan Shovon Chakma Tongkorn Meeyam Warangkhana Chaisowwong Veerasak Punyapornwithaya Nitish C. Debnath Eric Brum Duangporn Pichpol 《Zoonoses and public health》2020,67(6):658-672
Analysis of environmental samples obtained from the Live Poultry Markets (LPMs) of Dhaka City, Bangladesh, has revealed that the highest degree of prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI, H5N1), besides other subtypes of the LPAI virus, poses the plausible risk of transmission of these viruses between human and poultry species. The present study was conducted using the OIE risk analysis framework to assess the risk level of each pathway successively. The estimated risk parameters were integrated towards to obtain the overall risk level for each specific HPAI transmission pathway using the matrix adapted by Cristobel Zepeda accompanying other expert consultations. The relevant data obtained from published and unpublished sources, together with survey data of field observations, were used to formulate and confirm the risk pathways and their associated risks. The results revealed that the risk of the release of the HPAI virus was medium when exposure was high. Additionally, the consequence would be considered very high with a medium degree of uncertainty for all parameters. Ultimately, the overall risk for transmission was estimated as medium with a medium degree of uncertainty. The findings of this study reveal that there is a significant threat that HPAI virus transmission could occur among poultry and humans and effectively sustain within the environment of the LPMs. Our findings are primarily focused on public health considerations, the hygienic slaughter of poultry and the relevant cleaning and sanitation practices conducted in the LPMs to support evidence‐based decision‐making processes. The findings of the study have the potential to be used to formulate effective risk reduction measures and can be further adapted in low‐resource settings without major infrastructural changes required of the LPMs. All of which would reduce the risk of HPAI virus release and further lessen the degree of exposure and transmission in established LPMs. 相似文献
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Risk factors and characteristics of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) post-vaccination outbreaks 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 is now endemic in South-East Asia but HPAI control methods differ between countries. A widespread HPAI vaccination campaign that started at the end of 2005 in Viet Nam resulted in the cessation of poultry and human cases, but in 2006/2007 severe HPAI outbreaks re-emerged. In this study we investigated the pattern of this first post-vaccination epidemic in southern Viet Nam identifying a spatio-temporal cluster of outbreak occurrence and estimating spatially smoothed incidence rates of HPAI. Spatial risk factors associated with HPAI occurrence were identified. Medium-level poultry density resulted in an increased outbreak risk (Odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6–18.9) but also climate-vegetation factors played an important role: medium-level normalised difference vegetation indices during the rainy season from May to October were associated with higher risk of HPAI outbreaks (OR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.7–8.1), probably because temporal flooding might have provided suitable conditions for the re-emergence of HPAI by expanding the virus distribution in the environment and by enlarging areas of possible contacts between domestic waterfowl and wild birds. On the other hand, several agricultural production factors, such as sweet potatoes yield, increased buffalo density, as well as increased electricity supply were associated with decreased risk of HPAI outbreaks. This illustrates that preventive control measures for HPAI should include a promotion of low-risk agricultural management practices as well as improvement of the infrastructure in village households. Improved HPAI vaccination efforts and coverage should focus on medium poultry density areas and on the pre-monsoon time period. 相似文献