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1.
The Danish government and cattle industry instituted a Salmonella surveillance program in October 2002 to help reduce Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serotype Dublin (S. Dublin) infections. All dairy herds are tested by measuring antibodies in bulk tank milk at 3-month intervals. The program is based on a well-established ELISA, but the overall test program accuracy and misclassification was not previously investigated. We developed a model to simulate repeated bulk tank milk antibody measurements for dairy herds conditional on true infection status. The distributions of bulk tank milk antibody measurements for infected and noninfected herds were determined from field study data. Herd infection was defined as having either >or=1 Salmonella culture-positive fecal sample or >or=5% within-herd prevalence based on antibody measurements in serum or milk from individual animals. No distinction was made between Dublin and other Salmonella serotypes which cross-react in the ELISA. The simulation model was used to estimate the accuracy of herd classification for true herd-level prevalence values ranging from 0.02 to 0.5. Test program sensitivity was 0.95 across the range of prevalence values evaluated. Specificity was inversely related to prevalence and ranged from 0.83 to 0.98. For a true herd-level infection prevalence of 15%, the estimate for specificity (Sp) was 0.96. Also at the 15% herd-level prevalence, approximately 99% of herds classified as negative in the program would be truly noninfected and 80% of herds classified as positive would be infected. The predictive values were consistent with the primary goal of the surveillance program which was to have confidence that herds classified negative would be free of Salmonella infection.  相似文献   

2.
The prevalence of Mycoplasma bovis infection in France was assessed by means of a serological survey of suckling beef cattle, using an ELISA. The survey included 824 randomly selected herds in eight French counties and a total of 32,197 animals more than one year old. In each county, the number of herds tested was determined statistically on the basis of the hypothesis that about 40 per cent of herds are infected. The proportion of herds containing at least one infected animal ranged from 28 to 90 per cent depending on the county. Among the 32,197 sera tested, the animal infection rate ranged between 2 per cent and 13 per cent. In infected herds, the average number of positive animals per herd was between 10 and 20 per cent, and the infection was unevenly distributed among the areas tested.  相似文献   

3.
In 1997/1998, an abattoir survey was conducted to determine the likely exposure of the human population to transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) infection in sheep submitted for slaughter in Great Britain. The survey examined brain material from 2809 sheep processed through British abattoirs. Sampling was targeted by age: 45% of animals tested were ≥15 months old. All samples of adequate quality (98%) were tested for signs of scrapie infection using histopathology and scrapie-associated fibril (SAF) detection and 500 were tested using immunohistochemistry (IHC). No conclusive positive animals were found using either histology or IHC. Ten animals were positive by SAF. Standard statistical analyses suggest (with 95% confidence) that the prevalence of detectable (by histopathology) infection in the slaughter population was ≤0.11%. However, the incubation period of scrapie is long (usually around 2–3 years) and none of the tests used in the survey is capable of detecting scrapie infection in the early stages of infection. We present an age-structured stochastic model incorporating parameters for the incubation period of scrapie, prevalence of infection by age and test sensitivity. Using the model, we demonstrate that the negative results obtained for all samples using IHC and histopathology are consistent with a true prevalence of infection in the slaughter population of up to 11%. This suggests that up to 300 of the animals tested might have been infected but the infection was not sufficiently advanced in these animals to be detectable by IHC or histopathology. The survey was designed to detect a prevalence of 1% with a precision of ±0.5% and a confidence level of 95% in each age group assuming that diagnostic tests were 100% specific and sensitive from a known stage in the incubation period. The results of the model demonstrate that to estimate a true prevalence of scrapie infection of 1% with an accuracy of ±0.5% would have required a far larger sample size. An accurate estimate of the required sample size is complicated by uncertainty about test sensitivity and the underlying infection dynamics of scrapie. A pre-requisite for any future abattoir survey is validation of the diagnostic tests used in relation to both stage of incubation and genotype. Sampling in the <15-month age group was of no value in this survey because the diagnostic tests used were thought to be ineffective in most of the animals in this age group.  相似文献   

4.
We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate distributions for flock-level sensitivity of abattoir-based surveillance for ovine paratuberculosis as currently practised in New South Wales, Australia. Probability distributions were used as input variables for within-flock prevalence, years-infected and individual animal-level sensitivity and specificity of gross pathology as a screening test for the presence of paratuberculosis. Distributions used as inputs for the size of abattoir-slaughter groups were based on existing abattoir-surveillance data from NSW. Predicted flock-level sensitivity depended on within-flock prevalence and the number of animals examined and was sensitive to estimates of animal-level sensitivity and specificity. The median probability of detection of an infected flock based on the examination of one abattoir line was predicted not to exceed 0.95 unless the within-flock prevalence was ≥7%. If the within-flock prevalence was 2%, the probability distribution of flock-level sensitivity had a median of 0.73, with 80% of values lying between 0.55 and 0.84. Improvement in the flock-level sensitivity could be achieved by submitting more than three gross pathology-positive specimens per line, if available—but the degree of improvement depended on the number of sheep slaughtered (line size) and the within-flock prevalence. At 2% prevalence, a median flock-level sensitivity of 0.95 could be obtained in lines of >390 sheep if six gross pathology-positive specimens were submitted. We concluded that abattoir surveillance based on identification of gross pathology as a screening test is not a sensitive tool for detecting recently infected flocks or flocks which have a moderate or lower prevalence of infected animals. But—with relatively minor modifications of the protocol currently in use—it could become a key component of a surveillance programme which included additional testing strategies for small flocks.  相似文献   

5.
OBJECTIVE: To develop a method of probability diagnostic assignment (PDA) that uses continuous serologic measures and infection prevalence to estimate the probability of an animal being infected, using Neospora caninum as an example. ANIMALS: 196 N caninum-infected beef and dairy cattle and 553 cattle not infected with N caninum; 50 dairy cows that aborted and 50 herdmates that did not abort. PROCEDURE: Probability density functions corresponding to distributions of N caninum kinetic ELISA results from infected and uninfected cattle were estimated by maximum likelihood methods. Maximum likelihood methods also were used to estimate N caninum infection prevalence in a herd that had an excessive number of abortions. Density functions and the prevalence estimate were incorporated into Bayes formula to calculate the conditional probability that a cow with a particular ELISA value was infected with N caninum. RESULTS: Probability functions identified for infected and uninfected cattle were Weibull and inverse gamma functions, respectively. Herd prevalence was estimated, and probabilities of N caninum infection were determined for cows with various ELISA values. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Use of PDA offers an advantage to clinicians and diagnosticians over traditional seronegative or seropositive classifications used as a proxy for infection status by providing an assessment of the actual probability of infection. The PDA permits use of all diagnostic information inherent in an assay, thereby eliminating a need for estimates of sensitivity and specificity. The PDA also would have general utility in interpreting results of any diagnostic assay measured on a continuous or discrete scale.  相似文献   

6.
Canine hepatozoonosis is caused by the tick-borne protozoon Hepatozoon spp. The prevalence of the infection in the Aegean coast of Turkey was investigated by examination of blood smear parasitology and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using blood samples from 349 dogs collected from Central Aydin, Kusadasi, Selcuk, Central Manisa, Bodrum and Marmaris within the Aegean coast of Turkey. The indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) for the detection of Hepatozoon canis antibodies was also used to detect the exposure rate to H. canis. PCR amplifying a 666bp fragment of 18S rRNA gene of Hepatozoon spp. was used in the epidemiological survey. The prevalence of Hepatozoon spp. infection was 10.6% by blood smear parasitology and 25.8% by PCR. IFAT revealed that 36.8% of serum samples were positive for antibodies reactive with Hepatozoon spp. The PCR products of 18S rRNA gene of Hepatozoon spp. isolated from six infected dogs, one isolate originating from each of the six different locations, were sequenced. The results of sequence analysis indicate that they are closely related to Indian and Japanese isolates of H. canis. This is the first epidemiological study on the prevalence of H. canis infection in the dog, in Turkey.  相似文献   

7.
AIMS: To examine the effect of reducing the abundance of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) on the distribution and prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis, Tb) in possums and the incidence of Tb in domestic cattle on a group of farms in the central North Island, New Zealand. METHODS: The cumulative yearly incidence of Tb infection from 12 cattle herds was estimated from annual tuberculin testing and abattoir inspection data over the period 1983-98. Intensive control of possum populations began for six of the herds in 1988, five herds in 1994 and the remaining herd in 1996. The prevalence and distribution of macroscopic M. bovis infection in possums and an index of possum abundance was estimated during yearly cross-sectional surveys from 1988 to 1998. This enabled formal testing of the link between the abundance of tuberculous possums and the incidence of Tb in cattle. RESULTS: Before possum control, infected possums were clustered in foci on or adjacent to the farms with the highest annual incidence of tuberculosis in cattle, and had an overall prevalence of macroscopic M. bovis infection of 2.3%. The prevalence of disease declined to zero with ongoing possum control, although infected possums continued to be found during the first 5 years of control. Maintaining the possum population at an average of 22.1% of its pre-control density significantly reduced the odds of the cumulative yearly incidence of Tb in cattle by 77% during the first 5 years of possum control and a further 65% in the second 5-year period. Nine of 11 tuberculous possums identified since the start of possum control were found within the areas where infected possums were clustered during the pre-control survey, suggesting that the persistence of infection within these clusters rather than infected immigrants was the source of ongoing disease. Annual estimates of the prevalence of tuberculous possums broadly followed the predictions of Barlow's possum-Tb model for a controlled possum population. CONCLUSION: The results support the hypothesis that tuberculous possums transmit bovine tuberculosis to domestic cattle, and therefore that reducing the abundance of tuberculous possums reduces the incidence of Tb in cattle. If the level of possum culling is sufficient, it appears that M. bovis infection may be eradicated from possum populations. Better information on population density, rate of increase and annual culling rates would have been needed for a truly independent examination of the Barlow possum-Tb model.  相似文献   

8.
A survey of the prevalence of Salmonella species infection was conducted on 59 Irish farrow-to-finish pig herds. Faecal samples were collected from the pens of first-stage weaners (growing pigs approximately three to 10 weeks of age), second-stage weaners (approximately 10 to 17 weeks of age) and fatteners, and from the dry sow and farrowing sow houses. The prevalence of infection was estimated to within 5 per cent with a 95 per cent confidence interval. Thirty of the 59 herds were infected, 12 with Salmonella Typhimurium only, eight with Salmonella Derby only and seven with both S Typhimurium and S Derby; serotypes London, Livingstone and Infantis were each isolated from a single herd. Farms in Ireland are assigned to one of three infection categories on the basis of the antibody levels in samples of meat juice taken at slaughter. When a herd was classified as either positive or negative on the basis of the isolation of Salmonella from at least one faecal sample there was no association between the herd's category as determined by meat juice serology and the probability of the isolation of Salmonella from the faecal samples. However, there were differences in prevalence between pigs at different stages of production in herds of different categories. Farrowing sow houses in moderately infected (category 2) herds had significantly lower infection rates (P < or = 0.05) than other herd categories and other stages of production. Pigs from first-stage weaner pens in slightly infected (category 1) herds were more likely to be infected with Salmonella than pigs at any other stage of production or category of herd.  相似文献   

9.
A survey of dogs and cats in the Perth metropolitan area revealed a high prevalence of Giardia. Overall, 21% of 333 dogs and 14% of 226 cats were infected. More dogs and cats from refuges and breeding establishments were infected than household pets, although among the latter a significant number of dogs (9%) and cats (8%) was infected. Giardia did not show any breed or sex predisposition but prevalence was higher in young animals. The species of Giardia present in dogs and cats was identified as G. duodenalis, which is the same as that affecting man. The potential significance of this animal reservoir of infection to man is discussed in the light of increasing evidence that Giardia is a zoonosis.  相似文献   

10.
Data from the IDEXX Laboratories Reference Laboratory Network were retrospectively examined for feline heartworm testing trends in testing frequency, geographic bias, and prevalence for the years 2000--2006. Examination of the data supports the commonly held view that veterinarians do not embrace heartworm disease testing or prevention in cats to the same degree they do in dogs. Despite significant awareness and adoption of heartworm testing and prevention in dogs, we hypothesized that heartworm testing rates are lower for cats than for dogs despite a significant prevalence of feline infection. This is important because a perceived low rate of infection in cats is likely to manifest in a low adoption of testing and prevention. In reality, the overall feline heartworm antigen-positive rate is significant--on average 0.9% over the period studied--and in some regions was estimated to be as high as 4.6%. This compares with an average canine heartworm prevalence rate of 1.2%, a feline leukemia virus prevalence of 1.9%, and a feline immunodeficiency prevalence of 1.0%. Based on the low rate of testing and these prevalence rates, practitioners are routinely missing cases of adult feline heartworm infections and the recently defined heartworm-associated respiratory disease (H.A.R.D). Increased antigen testing would result in detection of a significant number of positive cases. In addition, this population of infected cats would represent the "tip of the iceberg" relative to the greater number of cats that have early infection or are at risk for infection.  相似文献   

11.
A stochastic simulation model was developed to assess the risk of introduction of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection into a dairy herd through purchase of female replacement cattle. The effects of infection prevalence in the source herd(s), number of females purchased, and testing by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) alone or ELISA and fecal culture as risk mitigation strategies were evaluated. Decisions about negative test results were made on a lot and individual basis. A hypothetical dairy herd, free from M. a. paratuberculosis, which replaced 1 lot (10, 30, or 100) of cows per year, was considered. Probability distributions were specified for the sensitivities and specificities of ELISA and fecal culture, the proportion of infected herds and within-herd prevalence for randomly selected replacement source herds (high prevalence) and herds in level 2 (medium prevalence) and level 3 (low prevalence) of the Voluntary Johne's Disease Herd Status Program (VJDHSP). Simulation results predicted that 1-56% of the lots had at least 1 M. a. paratuberculosis-infected cow. Assuming that ELISA sensitivity was 25%, simulation results showed on a lot basis that between 0.4% and 18% and between 0.1% and 9% were predicted to have at least 1 infected cow not detected by ELISA and by a combination of ELISA and fecal culture, respectively. On an individual cow basis, between 0.1% and 8.3% of ELISA-negative cattle in ELISA-positive lots were estimated to be infected. In both the lot and individual analyses, the probability of nondetection increased with larger lot sizes and greater prevalence. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the effect of a lower ELISA sensitivity (10%) was a variable decrease in mean detection probabilities for all combinations of prevalence and lot size. The benefit of testing introduced cattle with ELISA alone or in combination with fecal culture was found to be minimal if cows were purchased from known, low-prevalence (level 3) herds. The value of testing by ELISA alone or in combination with fecal culture was greatest in high-prevalence herds for all lot sizes. Testing of random-source cattle, bought as herd replacements, can partially mitigate the risk of introduction of M. a. paratuberculosis but not as well as by using low-prevalence source herds (level-3 VJDHSP), with or without testing.  相似文献   

12.
An exploratory spatial analysis of Aujeszkys disease virus infection from 2003 to 2007 was conducted in Catalonia (north eastern Spain), the largest pig-producing region in the country. The analysis was divided into four periods in relation to the different eradication phases of the programme established in the region. Different purely spatial analyses, based on the Bernoulli model, were run with SaTScan v6.1 in each period. Clusters of positive sow farms (farrow to weaning and farrow to finish) and/or fattening farms were identified in the four study periods in the western part of the region, in the three first periods in the central part and in the last three periods in the north eastern part of the region. The prevalence ratio values of these clusters increased throughout the study period due to the fact that the risk of disease decreased faster outside the clusters than inside the clusters. In order to study the evolution of the disease, we explored for areas where more negative sow farms became infected and areas where more sow farms eliminated the infection. These analyses demonstrated areas with significantly higher proportions of sow farms that became negative, which indicates that the eradication of the disease had a spatial component. Clusters of negative sow farms that were infected again (reinfections) were also detected in the four study periods. The relative risk values of these clusters were much higher compared to the other cluster analyses. There was a geographical association between the clusters of positive sow farms, positive fattening farms and re-infected sow farms. This association could be attributable to the local spread of Aujeszkys disease virus. Pig farm density could be a factor influencing the local spread of infection and was therefore evaluated for clusters of re-infected sow farms and clusters of sow farms that eliminated the infection. The mean density of pig farms was 0.40 farms/km(2) (median of 0.28 and standard deviation of 0.33) in clusters of sow farms that became negative and 1.51 (median of 0.70 and standard deviation of 1.61) in clusters where more sow farms became positive (p-value<0.05).  相似文献   

13.
Certification-and-monitoring programs for paratuberculosis are based on repetitive herd testing to establish a herd's health status. The available tests have poor sensitivity. Infected but undetected herds may remain among certified "paratuberculosis-free" herds. The objective was to determine if truly free herds acquire a certified status and keep it over time when infected but undetected herds remain. The Dutch program was used as a basis to construct a mechanistic deterministic model of the evolution over 25 years of the number of herds per health status. Three health states for herds were defined: not detected as infected in the certification process to obtain a free status; not detected as infected by any of the repetitive tests for monitoring the certified free status; detected as infected. Among undetected herds, two types were defined: truly free versus undetected but infected. Transitions between states were due to the purchase of an infected animal, infection via the environment, clearance via culling or sales, detection of an infected animal, and certification. A sensitivity analysis was carried out. We showed that--for a 100% specific test only--most of the truly free herds at the beginning of the program got a certified free status and kept it over time. Most infected herds were either detected as infected or cleared. The number of certified truly free herds increased with a decrease in the animal-level prevalence or in the risk of purchasing an infected cattle, for example by restricting purchases to cattle from herds at the highest level of certification.  相似文献   

14.
During 1971 to 1976, a survey was conducted to determine the prevalence of Echinococcus granulosus infection among dogs and sheep in central Utah. For each year, the number of dogs positive for adult tapeworms of the total number examined and the percentage infected were: in 1971, 14 of 51 infected (27.4%); in 1972, 13 of 46 infected (28.3%); in 1973, 7 of 36 infected (19.4%); in 1974, 34 of 244 infected (13.9%); in 1975, 13 of 267 infected (4.9%); and in 1976, 14 of 195 infected (7.2%), or a 6-year total of 95 of 839 infected (av = 11.3%). For each year, the number of sheep positive with hydatid cysts of the total number examined and the percentage infected were: in 1971, 103 of 1,007 infected (10.2%); in 1972, 235 of 1,808 infected (13.0%); in 1973, 242 of 2,003 infected (12.1%); in 1974, 105 of 1,406 infected (7.5%); in 1975, 96 of 1,599 infected (6.0%); and in 1976, 96 of 1,171 infected (8.2%), or a 6-year total of 877 of 8,994 infected (av = 9.8%). These results represent a definite decline in numbers of infected animals and suggest that preventive and control measures advocated in central Utah are being implemented.  相似文献   

15.
An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was developed for the detection of antibodies to Sarcosystis infection in cattle and buffaloes. Crude antigens derived from cystozoites of Sarcosystis cruzi and antibodies from the sera of naturally infected cattle and buffaloes were used. The assay was validated by determination of the specificity, sensitivity and negative and positive predictive values. Using ELISA, a sero-epidemiological survey for sarcosystosis was carried out in cattle (n = 215) and buffaloes (n = 123) from the wet and dry zones of Sri Lanka. The prevalence of infection in cattle was 69.3%. Prevalence of the infection collectively in both cattle and buffaloes in the dry zone was significantly higher (P < 0.001) than that in the wet zone. The number of sero-positive cattle and buffaloes in the dry zone was significantly higher than that in the wet zone (P < 0.05). Buffaloes in the dry and wet zones showed a greater prevalence of infection (P < 0.05) than cattle.  相似文献   

16.
Making valid inferences about herd prevalence from data collected at slaughter is difficult because the observed sample is dependent on the number of animals sampled from each herd, which varies with herd size and culling practices, and the probability of a positive test result, which depends on variable within-herd prevalence levels as well as test sensitivity and specificity. In this study, brucellosis herd prevalence among beef cow-calf operations is estimated from slaughter surveillance data using a method that combines process modeling with Bayesian inference. Inferences are made for two populations; the first population comprises cow-calf beef herds in a typical U.S. state. The second population represents all beef herds in a collection of 46 low-risk states. The Bayesian Monte Carlo method used in this study links process model inputs to observed surveillance results via Bayes Theorem. The surveillance evidence across multiple years is accumulated at a discounted rate based on the probability of introducing new infection into an area. The process model's inputs include herd size, culling rate per herd, within-herd prevalence, serologic test performance, and the probability of successfully investigating positive results. The surveillance results comprise the number of cows and bulls tested at slaughter and the number of affected herds detected each year. The results find at least 95% confidence that brucellosis herd prevalence among beef cow-calf herds is less than 0.014% (3 per 21,500 herds) and 0.00081% (5 per 6,15,770) after 5 years of slaughter surveillance (with no detections of affected herds) in a typical U.S. state and across 46 low-risk U.S. states, respectively. These results were based on conservative modeling assumptions, but sensitivity analysis suggests only slight changes in the results from changing the assumed process model input values. The most influential analytic input was the probability of introducing new infection into a putatively brucellosis-free state or group of states.  相似文献   

17.
Newcastle disease (ND) is a highly contagious viral disease of birds particularly domestic poultry. Switzerland is currently declared free from ND; since vaccination is prohibited, the detection of antibodies against ND virus (NDV) results in the destruction of the respective flock (stamping-out policy). However, in 1995 and 1996, antibody-positive flocks were detected and sporadic ND outbreaks even occurred in Switzerland. Therefore, a serosurvey was done to look for evidence of NDV infections in Swiss laying-hen flocks. The survey was designed to provide 95% confidence of detecting at least one seropositive flock if the flock prevalence were 1%. Thirty blood samples from each of 260 commercial laying-hen flocks were collected during 1996 in a central poultry slaughterhouse. Sera were screened for NDV antibodies with a commercial blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Samples with a questionable or positive test result were retested with the same ELISA. A stochastic computer model was applied to define a cut-off number of test-positive samples to help to differentiate between true- and false-positive flocks and to estimate the true flock prevalence of infection. Four flocks were identified as NDV-seropositive and the NDV true seroprevalence among commercial laying-hen flocks in Switzerland was most likely between 1.35 and 1.55%. This indicates that Swiss laying-hen and parental flocks with more than 150 animals have been in contact with strains of NDV that cause subclinical infection in chicken, because no clinical symptoms have been observed. In this context, computer simulation was a useful technique to interpret survey results.  相似文献   

18.
Results of national serological surveys for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) conducted in Switzerland in 2001 and 2004 were analyzed. In 2001, 41,124 breeding sows from 2,540 herds out of 6,406 were sampled, and in 2004, 7,498 animals were sampled from 1,074 herds out of 5,320. All serum samples were tested for PRRS using an ELISA developed at the Institute of Virology and Immunoprophylaxis (IVI), Switzerland with a sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of 94 and 97%, respectively. Positive samples were re-tested with a commercial ELISA (IDEXX) with Se of 100% and Sp of 99%. Samples positive in the second test were confirmed with the fluorescent antibody test (FAT). A stochastic model using data from the main survey conducted in 2001 was done to verify whether the sampling scheme used could detect at least one infected herd with 99% confidence level if the herd designed prevalence was at 0.1 or 0.2%. Additionally, a Bayesian approach was conducted to calculate the post-survey probability of freedom from PRRS using data from the 2001 and 2004 surveys. A Monte Carlo simulation with 5000 iteration was run for each model. Eleven samples in 2001 and six in 2004, all from different farms, could not be conclusively confirmed as negative by the FAT. All other samples were negative. Truly infected animals and herds were not predicted by a stochastic model at the 99% confidence level and 0.1% herd prevalence using data from the 2001 survey. However, it was demonstrated that the prior probability of freedom from PRRS increased from 89.3 to 99.2% after the 2001 survey. Upon completion of the 2004 survey, the probability of freedom from PRRS reached a value of 99.7%. Based on our results, we could conclude that the pig industry in Switzerland is free of PRRS virus with this level of confidence. Restricted import activities over the last decades are a possible explanation for the continuing absence of PRRS-infection in the Swiss swine population. Import requirements defined by the pig industry minimize the risk of introduction of PRRS-infected animals in the future.  相似文献   

19.
We reviewed Bayesian approaches for animal-level and herd-level prevalence estimation based on cross-sectional sampling designs and demonstrated fitting of these models using the WinBUGS software. We considered estimation of infection prevalence based on use of a single diagnostic test applied to a single herd with binomial and hypergeometric sampling. We then considered multiple herds under binomial sampling with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence distribution and the proportion of infected herds. A new model is presented that can be used to estimate the herd-level prevalence in a region, including the posterior probability that all herds are non-infected. Using this model, inferences for the distribution of prevalences, mean prevalence in the region, and predicted prevalence of herds in the region (including the predicted probability of zero prevalence) are also available. In the models presented, both animal- and herd-level prevalences are modeled as mixture distributions to allow for zero infection prevalences. (If mixture models for the prevalences were not used, prevalence estimates might be artificially inflated, especially in herds and regions with low or zero prevalence.) Finally, we considered estimation of animal-level prevalence based on pooled samples.  相似文献   

20.
Infectious pancreatic necrosis is a disease that is causing increasing loses to Scottish Atlantic-salmon farms. I asked the question: is infection of individual salmon farms persistent or transient? Using Fisheries Research Services' Fish Health Inspectors' data, conditional probabilities that a farm would (time 0) be infected were estimated for farms that had been infected [P(I(0)|I(-T))] or free [P(I(0)|F(-T))] from infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) when a sample was taken at some earlier time (-T). A logistic-regression model was used to estimate these conditional probabilities with T; this model was multilevel to account for regional and inter-annual level differences in prevalence of IPNV. In freshwater, conditional probabilities remained substantially different for periods of at least 4 years, so, although many farms did change infection status, IPNV either persisted or recurred at specific freshwater farms. Marine farms showed similar conditional probabilities after about 2 years following a positive or a negative sample, indicating that infection was transient. Management of larger areas and exchanges between farms might be more effective than farm-level management at controlling marine IPNV.  相似文献   

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