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1.
The Tristan albatross Diomedea [exulans] dabbenena is the third rarest albatross species, with a breeding population of around 1500 pairs almost totally restricted to Gough Island in the Tristan da Cunha group, central South Atlantic. During January 2000, the entire breeding population of Gough was surveyed for the first time since 1956, and 2400 incubating pairs were counted. An analysis of the areas that are likely to have been surveyed most accurately in the past suggests that the population has decreased by around 28% over 46 years. The number of large chicks counted over three successive seasons (1999-2001) was highly variable (range 318-1129). The average count over this period (705 chicks) is less than counts made in 1979 (792) and 1982 (798). A total of 656 chicks were counted in September 2001, giving an island breeding success of just 27.3%. However, breeding success varied considerably in different areas of the island, ranging from 17.6 to 68.0%. During the 2001 season most breeding failures were of large chicks, and over 4 years where data were available, 75% of breeding failures occurred during the chick period. Predation by introduced house mice Mus musculus is the most likely cause of chick mortality. In a small study population, birds began breeding at an average age of 9.7 years and annual adult survival from 1985 to 2001 was 92.6% (SE=1.6%). Both breeding success and adult survival estimates are low in comparison with other Diomedea species and population modelling predicts a population decreasing at an annual rate of 2.9-5.3%. Further research is needed urgently to assess whether breeding success is typical, and to confirm that mouse predation is the cause of chick mortality. The low productivity of this species will compound the negative impacts of longline fishing mortality, which are likely to be reducing adult and juvenile survival.  相似文献   

2.
As large, long-lived seabirds with delayed and slow reproduction, albatrosses have low intrinsic mortality rates and are especially vulnerable to extinction from extrinsic sources of mortality such as fishery bycatch. Leg-band recovery information for waved albatrosses revealed mortality from both incidental catch and intentional catch for human consumption. Annual adult survival in 1999-2005, estimated from capture-mark-recapture data, was lower than historical estimates. This recent increase in adult mortality probably contributed to recent and dramatic shrinkage of the breeding population; periodic matrix models confirm that population growth rate is most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Banding data and recovery information also suggest that capture by fisheries is male-biased, which should reduce fecundity in this species with obligate bi-parental care. This new documentation of bycatch, harvesting, and associated demographic consequences provides reason for serious concern about the persistence of the single breeding population of the waved albatross.  相似文献   

3.
The endangered Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena is restricted to Gough and Inaccessible Islands. The species is killed as bycatch by longline fisheries in the South Atlantic, but the impact of this mortality is unknown. We satellite tracked 38 breeding Tristan albatrosses and assessed the seasonal and annual at-sea distribution of these birds in relation to reported pelagic longline fishing effort. These birds ranged across the South Atlantic from 50°W to 15°E with most (97%) daytime satellite fixes between latitudes 30°S and 45°S. Considerable fishing effort occurred within the same latitudes. Although there was no correlation between their at-sea distributions, there was a broad overlap between birds and fishing effort. Estimated bycatch rates for Tristan albatross and other Diomedea species in the South Atlantic, and the spatio-temporal overlap between birds and hooks, yield a predicted annual mortality of 471-554 birds, sufficient to cause population decreases of 3.6-4.3% per year. An index of bird × hook interactions (proportional density of birds multiplied by number of hooks by decadal period for each 5° square of longitude and latitude) indicated that 47% of annual interactions occurred in areas around Gough Island, and 11% and 15% of interactions in areas of the west and east Atlantic, respectively. There were also within seasonal differences in the key areas of overlap. The fishing fleets of Taiwan and Japan are likely to be responsible for most interactions based upon the reported magnitude of effort expended in the South Atlantic by these fleets. Ensuring that licensed fishing vessels within the Tristan da Cunha Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) operate using best-practise mitigation measures and with fisheries observer programs, could reduce the potential bycatch mortality of breeding Tristan albatrosses in this region by nearly one third. Thorough implementation of international agreements is required in areas of the high seas where most remaining interactions are predicted to occur.  相似文献   

4.
Sea turtles interact with a variety of fishing gears across their broad geographic distributions and ontogenetic habitat shifts. Cumulative assessments of multi-gear bycatch impacts on sea turtle populations are critical for coherent fisheries bycatch management, but such estimates are difficult to achieve, due to low fisheries observer effort, and a single-species, single-fishery management focus. We compiled the first cumulative estimates of sea turtle bycatch across fisheries of the United States between 1990 and 2007, before and after implementation of fisheries-specific bycatch mitigation measures. An annual mean of 346,500 turtle interactions was estimated to result in 71,000 annual deaths prior to establishment of bycatch mitigation measures in US fisheries. Current bycatch estimates (since implementation of mitigation measures) are ∼60% lower (137,800 interactions) and mortality estimates are ∼94% lower (4600 deaths) than pre-regulation estimates. The Southeast/Gulf of Mexico Shrimp Trawl fishery accounts for the overwhelming majority of sea turtle bycatch (up to 98%) in US fisheries, but estimates of bycatch in this fishery are fraught with high uncertainty due to lack of observer coverage. Our estimates represent minimum annual interactions and mortality because our methods were conservative and we could not analyze unobserved fisheries potentially interacting with sea turtles. Although considerable progress has been made in reducing sea turtle bycatch in US fisheries, management still needs improvement. We suggest that sea turtle bycatch limits be set across US fisheries, using an approach similar to the Potential Biological Removal algorithm mandated by the Marine Mammal Protection Act.  相似文献   

5.
Despite the worrying conservation status of several albatross and petrel population, the long-term trends of many populations remain largely unknown and the causes of decline in many cases are known or very strongly suspected to be incidental mortality in fisheries. Here we combine long-term monitoring of population trends, breeding success and band recoveries to examine the past and current status of five species of albatrosses and giant petrels breeding at the same site: sooty albatross (Phoebetria fusca), light-mantled albatross (Phoebetria palpebrata), wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans), northern giant (Macronectes halli) and southern giant petrels (Macronectes giganteus) on Possession Island, Crozet archipelago. We identified three groups of trends over a 25-years period (1980-2005) suggesting common underlying causes for these species in relation to their bioclimatic foraging ranges. The Antarctic species - light-mantled albatross and southern giant petrel - appeared stable and increased recently, the Sub-Antarctic species - wandering albatross and northern giant petrel - declined with intermediate periods of increase, and finally the subtropical species - sooty albatross - declined all over the period. Breeding success, indicative of environmental conditions, showed two kinds of pattern (low and fluctuating versus high and/or increasing) which were consistent with oceanographic variations as found in a previous study. We present the analysis of fisheries-related recoveries, indicative of fisheries bycatch risks showing specific catch rates. No direct relationship between population trends and longline fishing effort was detected, probably because census data alone are not sufficient to capture the potentially complex response of demographic parameters of different life stages to environmental variation. This study highlights the contrasted changes of procellariiform species and the particularly worrying status of the subtropical sooty albatrosses, and in a lesser extent of Sub-Antarctic species.  相似文献   

6.
Seabirds such as albatrosses and petrels are frequently caught in longline and trawl fisheries, but limited demographic data for many species creates management challenges. A method for estimating the potential biological removal (the PBR method) for birds requires knowledge of adult survival, age at first breeding, a conservation goal, and the lower limit of a 60% confidence interval for the population size. For seabirds, usually only the number of breeding pairs is known, rather than the actual population size. This requires estimating the population size from the number of breeding pairs when important demographic variables, such as breeding success, juvenile survival, and the proportion of the adult population that engages in breeding, are unknown. In order to do this, a simple population model was built where some demographic parameters were known while others were constrained by considering plausible asymptotic estimates of the growth rate. While the median posterior population estimates are sensitive to the assumed population growth rate, the 20th percentile estimates are not. This allows the calculation of a modified PBR value that is based on the number of breeding pairs instead of the population size. For threatened albatross species, this suggests that human-caused mortalities should not exceed 1.5% of the number of breeding pairs, while for threatened petrel species, mortalities should be kept below 1.2% of the number of breeding pairs. The method is applied to 22 species and sub-species of albatrosses and petrels in New Zealand that are of management concern, of which at least 10 have suffered mortalities near or above these levels.  相似文献   

7.
An age-structured model of a wandering albatross Diomedea exulans population is developed to stimulate population trends over time, using demographic parameters from the population at Possession Island, Crozets, during 1968–1986. The simulation results portray a population decreasing at a rate of 2·29% per year, which concurs with global population trends. Sensitivity analyses of model parameters indicate that both adult and juvenile mortality are contributing to the decrease. Wandering albatross mortality is presumed to have increased as a result of deaths caused by longline fishing vessels; such deaths are likely to be relatively more frequent among young, naive birds. The model is used to investigate the potential impacts of new longline fisheries such as that for Patagonian toothfish Dissostichus eleginoides in Antarctica. Assuming longline fishing operations affect juveniles more than adults, there is a time lag of 5–10 years before further decreases in population numbers are reflected in the breeding population. Also, because wandering albatrosses are long-lived, population growth rates take approximately 30–50 years to stabilize after a perturbation. Consequently, caution must be exercised when interpreting population trends; short-term (<20 year) estimates may not provide good indications of long-term trends.  相似文献   

8.
Many seabird species are experiencing population declines, with key factors being high adult mortality caused by fishery by-catch and predation by introduced predators on nesting islands. In the Mediterranean, both of these pressures are intensive and widespread. We studied the adult survival of an endemic Mediterranean seabird, the Yelkouan shearwater (Puffinus yelkouan), between 1969–1994 and 2007–2010 in Malta and between 2004–2010 in France using mark–recapture methods. Mean annual survival probabilities for breeding adults were below 0.9 for all colonies and periods. Between 1969–1994, annual survival for adults of unknown breeding status was on average 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.80) in Malta, possibly as a result of various human disturbances (including illegal shooting), light pollution and fisheries by-catch. Over the period 2004–2010, we found strong support for variation in adult survival probabilities between breeders and non-breeders, and islands with and without introduced predators in France. Survival probabilities for non-breeders (0.95, 0.81–1.0) appeared to be higher than for breeders (0.82, 0.70–0.94), but were imprecise partly due to low recapture probabilities. In Malta, we found evidence for heterogeneity in survival probabilities between two unknown groups (probably breeders and non-breeders), and seasonal variation in survival probability. Birds were more likely to survive the period including the peak breeding season than an equally long period during which they roam widely at sea. Although annual adult survival probability was still low (0.85, 0.58–1.0), colony protection measures appear to have reduced mortality at nesting cliffs. A population model indicated that colonies in France and Malta would currently require continuous immigration of 5–12 pairs per year to maintain stable populations. Our estimates of adult survival probabilities over the past four decades are consistent with overall population declines. Threats to Yelkouan shearwaters require immediate management actions to avoid ongoing population declines in the western Mediterranean.  相似文献   

9.
Bycatch of common guillemots (Uria aalge) appears to be the single most serious threat to the population, and the proportion of recoveries of ringed birds in fishing gear, compared with other finding circumstances, has significantly increased during a 28 year period (P<0.01). Out of 1952 ringed common guillemots reported found between 1972 and 1999 in the Baltic Sea, 980 (50.2%) were caught in fishing gear. The bycatch in set gillnets for cod (Gadus morhua) constituted 22.3%, drift gillnets for salmon (Salmo salar) 65.5%, and other fishing gear 12.2%. The proportion of recoveries in cod gillnets has significantly increased during the study period (P<0.05), while no clear trend was observed in the recoveries in salmon gillnets. The Swedish fishing effort follows a similar pattern for cod but has decreased for salmon. The observed increased use of cod gillnets in the Baltic Sea may have contributed to the observed decrease in adult survival rate, and we provide two different estimates suggesting that significant proportions of the guillemot population are caught annually in the Baltic Sea gillnet fishery. We suggest several available techniques to reduce bycatch in the Baltic Sea fishery.  相似文献   

10.
From 1989 to 2004, the breeding success of African penguins Spheniscus demersus at Robben Island, South Africa was significantly related to estimates of the abundance of both their main prey species, anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax, and to the combined biomass of these species. When the combined spawner biomass of fish prey was less than 2 million ton, pairs fledged an average of 0.46 chicks annually. When it was above 2 million ton, annual breeding success had a mean value of 0.73 chicks per pair. Given previously estimated values of survival and age at first breeding, these levels of breeding success are inadequate to sustain the African penguin population. With the higher level of breeding success, an equilibrium situation might be attained if adult survival could be increased by 6-7% per annum. Attempts to reduce mortality of penguins have included the collection, cleaning and return to the wild of oiled birds, culling of Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus seen preying on penguins around breeding localities and control of the spread of disease. Management of the purse-seine fishery should ensure adequate escapement of fish to maintain the combined biomass of anchovy and sardine above 2 million ton. The maintenance of suitable breeding habitat and removal of feral predators from breeding localities will also be important in improving breeding success.  相似文献   

11.
Catastrophic events, either from natural (e.g., hurricane) or human-induced (e.g., forest clear-cut) processes, are a well-known threat to wild populations. However, our lack of knowledge about population-level effects of catastrophic events has inhibited the careful examination of how catastrophes affect population growth and persistence. For the critically endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), episodic volcanic eruptions are considered a serious catastrophic threat since approximately 80% of the global population of ∼2500 birds (in 2006) currently breeds on an active volcano, Torishima Island. We evaluated how short-tailed albatross population persistence is affected by the catastrophic threat of a volcanic eruption relative to chronic threats. We also provide an example for overcoming the seemingly overwhelming problems created by modelling the population dynamics of a species with limited demographic data by incorporating uncertainty in our analysis. As such, we constructed a stochastic age-based matrix model that incorporated both catastrophic mortality due to volcanic eruptions and chronic mortality from several potential sources (e.g., contaminant exposure, fisheries bycatch) to determine the relative effects of these two types of threats on short-tailed albatross population growth and persistence. Modest increases (1%) in chronic (annual) mortality had a 2.5-fold greater effect on predicted short-tailed albatross stochastic population growth rate (lambda) than did the occurrence of periodic volcanic eruptions that follow historic eruption frequencies (annual probability of eruption 2.2%). Our work demonstrates that periodic catastrophic volcanic eruptions, despite their dramatic nature, are less likely to affect the population viability and recovery of short-tailed albatross than low-level chronic mortality.  相似文献   

12.
Meadow breeding birds such as the whinchat Saxicola rubetra have been declining due to increased farming intensity. In modern grassland management, the first mowing and the bird’s breeding cycle coincide, causing high nest destruction rates and low productivity of grassland bird populations. However, it is virtually unknown whether the mowing process directly affects adult survival by accidentally killing incubating females. We studied adult survival of an Alpine whinchat population during two breeding seasons using either colour-ringing or radio-tracking of 71 adults. Assessing territories, mowing phenology and nest destruction from 1988 to 2007 allowed changes in the factors associated with female mowing mortality to be estimated. Adult survival over 5-day-periods was Φ = 0.986, but during the period of mowing female survival was strongly reduced (Φ = 0.946). As a result, 80.6% of the males, but only 68.4% of the females survived the breeding season. Mowing undoubtedly killed two of 20 radio-tagged females when they were laying or incubating. In the 20-year period, an increasing proportion of nests were destroyed before the chicks hatched and this change was associated with an increased distortion of the adult sex ratio. Modelling the population growth rate showed that including the additional effect of mowing on female mortality resulted in a 1.7 times faster local population decline. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the extinction of whinchat populations in the lowlands of central Europe was caused not only by habitat degradation and low productivity, but also by increased man-made female mortality.  相似文献   

13.
The flesh-footed shearwater (Puffinus carneipes) is a medium-sized seabird (ca. 700 g) that is incidentally killed during longline fishing operations. We examined the levels of bycatch in Australia’s Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and developed a model to examine the impact of this fishery on the eastern Australian population of flesh-footed shearwaters, which breeds at only one site, Lord Howe Island. Observed bycatch rates for flesh-footed shearwaters were 0.378 birds/1000 hooks for night sets, and 0.945 birds/1000 hooks for day sets. The mean number of birds killed from 1998 to 2002 was estimated to be 1794-4486 birds per year, with the estimated total killed over this period ranging from 8972 to 18,490 birds. Models incorporating both density-independent and density-dependent scenarios were applied to levels of bycatch representative of that observed in the fishery. Density-independent scenarios showed that fishing mortality levels caused declines in the majority of simulated populations. In contrast, density-dependent scenarios produced populations that were more resilient to fishing mortalities. Although some modelling scenarios led to population growth, under most stochastic simulations median population halving and quasi-extinction times were less than 55 and 120 years, respectively. We conclude that the level of bycatch observed in the fishery is most likely unsustainable and threatens the survival of the Lord Howe Island population. This situation can be improved only with the development and implementation of mitigation measures that will halt or greatly reduce the level of bycatch currently observed. Improved knowledge on a range of demographic parameters for the species, combined with a clearer idea of the at-sea distribution of breeding and non-breeding shearwaters, will greatly assist in improving understanding and the management of this population.  相似文献   

14.
House mice Mus musculus have successfully colonized many temperate and sub-Antarctic islands that are the location for breeding colonies of millions of seabirds. Unlike other introduced mammals, the impact of house mice on seabirds and endemic birds is believed to have been negligible. The breeding ecology of seabirds breeding on Gough Island, central South Atlantic Ocean, was studied for the first time during September 2000 to September 2001. Breeding success of the endangered Tristan albatross Diomedea (exulans) dabbenena and endangered Atlantic Petrel Pterodroma incerta were 27.3 and 19.9% respectively. Mortality of large Tristan albatross and Atlantic petrel chicks was observed, and the pattern of wounds and observations of feeding indicate that introduced mice were responsible for this predation. Breeding numbers of the endemic Gough bunting Rowettia goughensis are mostly found in upland areas of Gough Island where mice are scarce and are restricted to inaccessible cliffs in the lowlands where mice are abundant. This pattern, together with the high predation rates of artificial-eggs in lowland habitats in comparison to the uplands, strongly suggests that mice constrain the distribution of Gough buntings. The results of this study provide the first evidence for the role of house mice as a significant predator of endangered and endemic birds. Further research is required to determine if the observed levels of mice predation are a regular occurrence.  相似文献   

15.
Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of population growth to: (1) determine the pattern of growth in these populations, and (2) identify the demographic rates most important to growth. Trend estimates from population models were most similar to trend estimates derived from Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data when models incorporated either a reproductive or survival event. These events randomly increased fecundity or survival, respectively, to their empirical maxima on average once every 5 years. Reproductive events improved estimates on areas dominated by mixed mesophytic forest, while survival events characterized population growth on oak (Quercus spp.)-dominated sites. The finite rate of increase (λ) was most sensitive to brood survival followed by adult and juvenile non-breeding survival on most sites. However, brood survival was low (<0.35 female chicks/hen survived to week 5), and elasticity analyses indicated λ responded more strongly to proportionate change in non-breeding and breeding survival rates of adults and juveniles than any reproductive variable. Life stage analyses corroborated this result. At baseline values, survival of adults and juveniles may be the main determinants of growth in these populations, and reproduction may not be adequate to compensate for these losses. Therefore, population growth above baseline levels may be regularly needed to restock these populations. Researchers have hypothesized that population dynamics may differ between mixed mesopytic and oak-dominated sites due to differences in forage quality and quantity. Thus, a potential mechanism for the increases in λ needed to sustain populations on mixed mesophytic forest sites is the greater fecundity observed during years with high oak or beech (Fagus grandifolia) mast abundance. The availability of this high quality forage allows hens to enter the breeding season in better condition and realize higher fertility. Alternatively, on oak-dominated sites, population growth increases may also be a product of higher non-breeding survival of birds in mast years, when birds do not need to range as far to forage and can limit their exposure to predators.  相似文献   

16.
The Amsterdam albatross (Diomedea amsterdamensis) is one of the rarest bird species of world avifauna, consisting of a single population in the upland plateau of Amsterdam Island (SE Indian Ocean). All breeding birds of the population are today banded and a monitoring program involving mark-recapture procedures has been carried out continuously over the past 16 years. We present the first estimate of risk of decline for the Amsterdam albatross using a stochastic matrix population model, and evaluate the extent to which the measurement errors in demographic estimates may affect the baseline conservation assessment. We also estimate the potential effect that resumption of long-line fisheries in the vicinity of Amsterdam Island (one the alleged causes for its low numbers in the recent past) may have on the persistence of this population. Our results indicate that, in the absence of any impact of long-line fisheries, the Amsterdam albatross is unlikely to experience a decline larger than 20% of the current population abundance over the next 50 years. Our results point out the difficulty to assess with certainty the extinction risk of small populations despite the availability of long term data on their demography. They suggest that a very cautious approach should be taken for the preservation of small populations of long-lived species that cannot sustain any level of incidental by-catch. Any new long-line fishery resuming in the foraging range of the Amsterdam albatross, but especially close to Amsterdam Island, may rapidly put this species at risk of extinction.  相似文献   

17.
Although population declines of grassland songbirds in North America and Europe are well-documented, the effect of local processes on regional population persistence is unclear. To assess population viability of grassland songbirds at a regional scale (∼150,000 ha), we quantified Savannah Sparrow Passerculus sandwichensis and Bobolink Dolichonyx oryzivorus annual productivity, adult apparent survival, habitat selection, and density in the four most (regionally) common grassland treatments. We applied these data to a female-based, stochastic, pre-breeding population model to examine whether current grassland management practices can sustain viable populations of breeding songbirds. Additionally, we evaluated six conservation strategies to determine which would most effectively increase population trends. Given baseline conditions, over 10 years, simulations showed a slightly declining or stable Savannah Sparrow population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.99; 95% CI = 1.00-0.989) and severely declining Bobolink population (mean bootstrap λ = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.753-0.747). Savannah Sparrow populations were sensitive to increases in all demographic parameters, particularly adult survival. However for Bobolinks, increasing adult apparent survival, juvenile apparent survival, or preference by changing habitat selection cues for late-hayed fields (highest quality) only slightly decreased the rate of decline. For both species, increasing the amount of high-quality habitat (late- and middle-hayed) marginally slowed population declines; increasing the amount of low-quality habitat (early-hayed and grazed) marginally increased population declines. Both species were most sensitive to low productivity and survival on early-hayed fields, despite the fact that this habitat comprised only 18% of the landscape. Management plans for all agricultural regions should increase quality on both low- and high-quality fields by balancing habitat needs, nesting phenology, and species’ response to management.  相似文献   

18.
The Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis) is endemic to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China. It is the only freshwater population of porpoises in the world and is currently listed as Endangered by IUCN. In November and December 2006 we used two boats and line transect methods to survey the entire current range of the population, except for two lakes (Poyang and Dongting). Sighting results were similar for both boats, so we pooled all data and analyzed them using two line transect models and a strip transect model. All models produced similar estimates of abundance (1111, 1225 and 1000). We then added independent estimates of the number of porpoises from the two lakes for a total estimate of approximately 1800 porpoises. Our findings indicate that the population continues to decline and that its distribution is becoming more fragmented. Our current estimate in the main river is slightly less than half the estimate from surveys between 1984 and 1991 (which was probably an underestimate). We also found an apparent gap in the distribution of porpoises between Yueyang and Shishou (∼150 km), where sightings had previously been common. Continued threats to Yangtze finless porpoises include bycatch in unregulated and unselective fishing, habitat degradation through dredging, pollution and noise, vessel strikes and water development. Immediate protective measures are urgently needed to ensure the persistence of finless porpoises in the Yangtze River. The survey design and analytical methods developed in this study might be appropriate for surveys of cetaceans in other river systems.  相似文献   

19.
Many seabird populations are currently decreasing, especially albatrosses for which the primary threat is recognised to be mortality in fisheries. Introduced predators, climate change and other factors such as diseases can also have large impacts on seabirds. Here, we assessed the relative effect of three potential threats: climate, fisheries and diseases on the demography of an endangered marine predator and modelled its population dynamics to project its size under different scenarios. We based our study on a long-term monitoring of a colony of individually marked Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses at Amsterdam Island, subtropical Indian Ocean, that has declined during the past twenty years. We found no evidence for an impact of legal tuna longlining on demographic parameters. Hatching success was lower during El Niño years but survival (0.902 ± 0.011) was not affected by climatic factors. Avian cholera caused high chick mortality (0.808 ± 0.181) which in turn probably triggered the high emigration rate (0.038 ± 0.011) through dispersal of failed breeders. This colony has a high risk of extinction. However, the rest of the population at Amsterdam Island seemingly not affected to the same extent, declined but stabilised since 1998. Matrix models indicated that lowered adult survival and the very low breeding success, resulting in low recruitment, have both contributed to the decline of the yellow-nosed albatross colony until the mid-1990s, but that more recent decline was primarily caused by low fledging success. Our results highlight that potential threats such as fisheries, diseases or climate have to be considered simultaneously to disentangle their roles when assessing the conservation status of a marine predator species.  相似文献   

20.
The IUCN is the leading authority on assessing species’ extinction risks worldwide and introduced the use of quantitative criteria for the compilation of Red Lists of threatened species. Recently, we assessed the threat status of the 483 European butterfly species, using semi-quantitative data on changes in distribution and in population sizes provided by national butterfly experts. We corrected distribution trends for the observation that coarse-scale grid cells underestimate actual population trends by 35%. To account for uncertainty, we included a 5% error margin on the distribution and population trends provided. The new Red List of European butterflies determined one species as Regionally Extinct, 37 species as threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable) and a further 44 as Near Threatened. The use of semi-quantitative data on distribution and population trends permitted us to use IUCN criteria to compile a scientifically underpinned Red List of butterflies in Europe. However, a comparison of detailed monitoring data for some grassland species showed that coarse-scale grid cell data and population trends strongly underestimate extinction risks, and the list should be taken as a conservative estimate of threat. Finally, combining the new Red List status with the data provided by the national butterfly experts, allowed us to determine simple criteria to delineate conservation priorities for butterflies in Europe, so called SPecies of European conservation Concern (SPEC’s). Using European butterflies, our approach illustrated how Red Listing can be performed when data are incomplete for some IUCN criteria or vary strongly among countries.  相似文献   

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