共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Susan L. Roberts Jan W. van Wagtendonk A. Keith Miles Douglas A. Kelt 《Biological conservation》2011,(1):610-619
The spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) is a late-successional forest dependent species that is sensitive to forest management practices throughout its range. An increase in the frequency and spatial extent of stand-replacing fires in western North America has prompted concern for the persistence of spotted owls and other sensitive late-successional forest associated species. However, there is sparse information on the effects of fire on spotted owls to guide conservation policies. In 2004–2005, we surveyed for California spotted owls during the breeding season at 32 random sites (16 burned, 16 unburned) throughout late-successional montane forest in Yosemite National Park, California. Our burned areas burned at all severities, but predominately involved low to moderate fire severity. Based on an information theoretic approach, spotted owl detection and occupancy rates were similar between burned and unburned sites. Nest and roost site occupancy was best explained by a model that combined total tree basal area (positive effect) with cover by coarse woody debris (negative effect). The density estimates of California spotted owl pairs were similar in burned and unburned forests, and the overall mean density estimate for Yosemite was higher than previously reported for montane forests. Our results indicate that low to moderate severity fires, historically common within montane forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, maintain habitat characteristics essential for spotted owl site occupancy. These results suggest that managed fires that emulate the historic fire regime of these forests may maintain spotted owl habitat and protect this species from the effects of future catastrophic fires. 相似文献
2.
We developed large-scale spatially explicit models to predict the distribution of suitable habitat patches for the Greater rhea (Rhea americana), a near-threatened species, in two areas of central Argentina with different land use: a grassland area (ca. 4943 km2) mainly devoted to cattle grazing and an agro-ecosystem area (ca. 4006 km2) mostly used for crop production. The models were developed using logistic regression and were based on current records of Greater rhea occurrence coupled with remote sensing data, including land cover and human presence variables. The habitat suitability maps generated were used to predict the suitable habitat patch structure for wild rhea populations in each area. Fifty-one percent of the total grassland area was suitable for the species, being represented by a single large patch that included 62% of the individual locations. In the agro-ecosystem, only 28% of the total area was suitable, which was distributed among four patches. Seventy percent of rhea observations were in suitable habitat, with all rheas grouped in the largest patch. Conservation efforts for preserving wild rhea populations should be focused on maintaining habitats similar to grasslands, which are less profitable for landowners at present. Consequently, the protection of the pampas grasslands, a key habitat for this species as well as for others with similar habitat requirements, will demand strong conservation actions through the reconciliation of interests between producers and conservationists, since the proportion of croplands is increasing. 相似文献
3.
Conservation efforts often require site or parcel selection strategies that lead to spatially cohesive reserves. Although habitat contiguity is thought to be conducive to the persistence of many sensitive species, availability of funding and suitable land may restrict the extent to which this spatial attribute can be pursued in land management or conservation. Using optimization modeling, we explore the economic and spatial tradeoffs of retaining or restoring grassland habitat in contiguous patches of various sizes near the Chicago metropolitan area. The underlying mathematical construct is the first exact, generalized formulation that directly models spatial contiguity in optimal reserve selection. The construct allows conservation planners to analyze and weigh different minimum contiguous habitat size requirements that are to be used in specific land acquisition or retention projects. 相似文献
4.
Linking habitat suitability and seed dispersal models in order to analyse the effectiveness of hydrological fen restoration strategies 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A.H. van Loon H. Soomers P.P. Schot M.F.P. Bierkens J. Griffioen M.J. Wassen 《Biological conservation》2011,(3):1025-1035
The effectiveness of measures targeted at the restoration of populations of endangered species in anthropogenically dominated regions is often limited by a combination of insufficient restoration of habitat quality and dispersal failure. Therefore, the joint prediction of suitable habitat and seed dispersal in dependency of management actions is required for effective nature management. Here we demonstrate an approach, which links a habitat suitability and a seed dispersal model. The linked model describes potential species distribution as a function of current species distribution, species-specific dispersal traits, the number of successful dispersal events, dispersal infrastructure and habitat configuration. The last two variables were related to water management actions. We demonstrate the applicability of the model in a strategy analysis of hydrological restoration measures for a large fen area in which still numerous endangered plant species grow.With the aid of the linked model, we were able to optimise the spatial planning of restoration measures, taking into account both the constraints of water management practices on abiotic restoration and the effects of habitat fragmentation on dispersal. Moreover, we could demonstrate that stand-alone habitat suitability models, which assume unlimited dispersal, may considerably overestimate restoration prospects. For these reasons, we conclude that linked habitat suitability and dispersal models can provide useful insights into spatially differentiated potentials and constraints of nature restoration measures targeted at the sustainable conservation of endangered plant populations whose habitats have been deteriorated due to undesirable effects of land and water management on abiotic conditions. These insights may contribute to the design of cost-effective nature restoration and conservation measures. 相似文献
5.
Protection of area-limited species is an important component of plans to conserve biodiversity, but the habitat needs of such species can be different and important habitats may not align with existing reserves. We used empirically derived landscape suitability models for the spotted owl and the fisher to evaluate the overlap in habitat suitability for these two old forest-associated predators in an area of northern California affected by the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP), a bioregional conservation plan. The area includes designated Wilderness areas and new reserves (Late-Successional Reserves, LSRs) established under the NWFP. We used the site selection algorithm MARXAN to identify priority habitat areas for each species, and for both combined, and to compare these areas with reserves. Sites were selected under two constraints, to achieve a threshold proportion of total habitat value and to select new areas equal to the total current area in existing reserves. The rank correlation between predicted value for the two species was low (0.11), because areas of highest predicted habitat value were more widely distributed for the owl. This difference also meant that the sites selected to optimize habitat value were more aggregated for fishers than owls, resulting in greater overlap of owl habitat and current reserves. To capture 25%, 50% and 75% of total habitat value for the owl required 14.0%, 29.2%, and 47.3% of the planning units, respectively; capturing the same for the fisher required only 5.3%, 13.5%, and 27.2%. A combined owl-fisher scenario resulted in areas that overlapped only ∼50% of existing reserves. The current location of LSRs may not be the best solution to maintaining well-connected habitats for these area-limited species in northwestern California. Whether LSRs are a better solution to protecting the diversity of other lesser-known taxa (i.e., salamanders and mollusks) is the subject of related work. 相似文献
6.
山地丘陵区地形复杂,地表辐射信号畸变严重,地物识别困难。为准确提取山区地物信息,结合多源异构数据,Stacking集成学习和shapley addictive explanation(SHAP)方法展开土地覆被分类研究。从Sentinel-1/2影像、气候数据、土壤数据和数字高程图中提取遥感、气候、土壤和地形四类特征变量,设计多种变量组合方案,结合Stacking算法,探讨不同类型变量在山区地物识别中的效用,并对比Stacking最佳方案与支持向量机（Support Vector Machine,SVM）、随机森林（Random Forest,RF）和极端梯度回归（eXtreme Gradient Boosting,XGBoost）算法的分类精度,评价Stacking方法在山区地物信息提取中的性能。同时,引入SHAP方法,量化Stacking模型中各特征变量的重要性。结果表明：在仅以遥感变量为基础方案时,山区土地覆被分类精度最低;在分别加入气候、土壤和地形变量后,总体精度、Kappa系数和F1分数均有所提高,其中旱地、水田和园地分类精度的提升幅度较大。基于Stacking算法结合所有类... 相似文献
7.
Sergey Venevsky 《Biological conservation》2005,124(2):235-251
National conservation planning should operate with measures of biodiversity similar to those applied globally in order to harmonize national and international conservation strategies. Here we suggest quantitative measures which enable two criteria of the global biodiversity hotspots to be applied on a national level for 74 large countries, and show how these measures can be applied to map national biodiversity hotspots. The plant endemism criteria of global hotspots are captured by quantitative measures of endemism, which are approximately scale-independent and can be corrected to account for a country’s environmental conditions and conservation priorities. The flexible land use criteria for national biodiversity hotspots are defined from percentage of natural vegetation remaining in the global hotspots. The minimum-area-required approach is applied to define the borders of national biodiversity hotspots using data on vascular plants species richness. We show how national biodiversity hotspots can be mapped from the species-energy relationship for vascular plants using climate, topographical and land use data when spatial pattern of species richness is not known. This methodology to map national biodiversity hotspots from abiotic factors is applied to Russia as a case study. Three Russian biodiversity hotspots, North Caucasus, South Siberia and Far East were identified. The resulting hotspot maps cover national-scale environmental gradients across Russia and although they are also identified by Russian experts their actual geographical locations were hitherto unspecified. The large-scale national hotspots, identified for Russia, can be used for further fine scale and more detailed conservation planning. 相似文献
8.
Mattia Brambilla Fabio Casale Valentina Bergero G. Matteo Crovetto Riccardo Falco Irene Negri Paolo Siccardi Giuseppe Bogliani 《Biological conservation》2009,142(10):2033-2042
Species conservation largely depends on knowledge of habitat needs of target species. GIS-models are increasingly used to assess habitat preferences and distribution of target species, but their accuracy is constrained by availability of digital data layers. We developed a two-steps approach aiming at showing pros and cons of landscape (GIS)- and site-level habitat models, identifying key habitat factors for conservation of a threatened bird species, the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio. A spatially explicit GIS-model was generated using landscape variables, and a second model at site level was developed using fine-scale variables measured on the ground. The GIS-based model was then extrapolated to the entire region to obtain a map of distribution of suitable habitats. Positive associations between shrike occurrence and both hedgerow length and partial shrub cover were detected at both scales. Shrikes were also positively associated with grassland cover at landscape level and with partial cover of untilled herbaceous vegetation at the finer scale, and negatively affected by lucerne cover. The GIS-model led to an affordable map of predicted habitat suitability which should help conservationists to focus on different local priorities, but was unable to identify effects of untilled and lucerne cover. Site-level model gave fine details for habitat management, but its application elsewhere requires ground-measurements of factors. Combining the multiscale models could indicate more urgent actions at large scales (e.g. maintaining suitable habitats, or improving connectivity among isolated patches) and draw a detailed figure of the most suitable habitat for the species. Shrike occurrence was associated with a higher number of shrub and tree species: the indicator value of the species should ensure general benefits for biodiversity from dedicated management. 相似文献
9.
Little is known about the distribution and habitat use of northern pygmy owls (Glaucidium gnoma), in Alberta or throughout their range. In Alberta they are ranked as ‘sensitive’, meaning they are not believed to be at immediate risk of extirpation or extinction but may require special attention or protection to prevent them from becoming at risk.Diurnal broadcast surveys were conducted to determine distribution and habitat selection throughout a 28,500 km2 study area situated along the eastern slopes of the Alberta Rocky Mountains. Surveys lasted for eight weeks in 2001, during which time 1532 site visits were made. Forty-eight responses were recorded at 42 sites representing 40 individual northern pygmy owls. Predictive models of habitat selection were developed using stepwise logistic and autologistic regression. Autologistic models accounted for observed spatial dependencies and as a result, produced better fitting models that more accurately reflect the role of predictor variables in influencing species occurrence. All models considered biophysical variable selection at two spatial scales, the minimum (75 ha) and maximum (300 ha) home range size. Northern pygmy owls showed a preference for older, structurally diverse mixedwood habitats, with line-of-sight enhanced by increased edge and terrain roughness.The use of habitat selection models resulting from this project and Geographic Information Systems as a tool, will enable managers to identify key habitat features, focus future survey efforts, set habitat goals and evaluate the effects of management decisions on current and future habitat availability. 相似文献
10.
Although spatial scale is important for understanding ecological processes and guiding conservation planning, studies combining a range of scales are rare. Habitat suitability modelling has been used traditionally to study broad-scale patterns of species distribution but can also be applied to address conservation needs at finer scales. We studied the ability of presence-only species distribution modelling to predict patterns of habitat selection at broad and fine spatial scales for one of the rarest mammals in the UK, the grey long-eared bat (Plecotus austriacus). Models were constructed with Maxent using broad-scale distribution data from across the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) and fine-scale radio-tracking data from bats at one colony. Fine-scale model predictions were evaluated with radio-tracking locations from bats from a distant colony, and compared with results of traditional radio-tracking data analysis methods (compositional analysis of habitat selection). Broad-scale models indicated that winter temperature, summer precipitation and land cover were the most important variables limiting the distribution of the grey long-eared bat in the UK. Fine-scale models predicted that proximity to unimproved grasslands and distance to suburban areas determine foraging habitat suitability around maternity colonies, while compositional analysis also identified unimproved grasslands as the most preferred foraging habitat type. This strong association with unimproved lowland grasslands highlights the potential importance of changes in agricultural practices in the past century for wildlife conservation. Hence, multi-scale models offer an important tool for identifying conservation requirements at the fine landscape level that can guide national-level conservation management practices. 相似文献
11.
Considerable differences observed in the home-range size of individual three-toed woodpeckers (Picoides tridactylus) may be linked to variation in resource availability. We used radio-telemetry to test this hypothesis in an alpine mountain forest in southeastern Germany between 1994 and 2000. Stepwise backward multiple-regression showed that adaptive kernel home-range size using 95% use distribution (n=24 woodpeckers) was positively related to forest extent and tree-species diversity. Conversely, we found smaller home ranges with increasing density of potential cavity trees, and with increasing dbh-range of trees at breast height. The habitat variables shown to effect home range selection were attributes of mature boreal forests. This implied that maintaining a boreal-like habitat (i.e. spruce-dominated autochthonous forests including their natural disturbance regime) would be the best option for successful conservation of the alpine subspecies of the three-toed woodpecker. 相似文献
12.
基于InVEST模型的门头沟区生态系统土壤保持功能研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
人类不合理的土地资源开发所导致的土壤侵蚀成为山区生态系统关注的热点和焦点问题。选择生态涵养与土壤侵蚀并存的北京市纯山区门头沟区为研究区域,在分析2005—2013年门头沟区土地利用与土地覆被变化的时空差异的基础上,采用了InVEST模型对区内生态系统的土壤保持功能进行了定量分析和动态评估。研究表明:（1）2005—2013年,门头沟区耕地、林地和水域、未利用地面积减少,园地、草地、建设用地增加;耕地和园地变化显著,耕地主要转为园地、林地和建设用地;园地主要由耕地和林地转化而来。（2）2005—2013年,门头沟区土壤保持能力和保持量均呈增加趋势,单位面积土壤保持能力由87.41 t/（hm2·a）增加到113.56 t/（hm2·a）,土壤保持量增加了377.38万t,土壤侵蚀量减少了23.42万t;受土地利用与土地覆被变化、降雨侵蚀力以及植被覆盖度影响,西北、东北地区土壤保持功能增强,西南地区减弱,东部地区基本不变。（3）不同土地利用与土地覆被类型的土壤保持能力排序为:林地 > 草地 > 未利用地 > 建设用地 > 耕地 > 园地 > 水域;2005—2013年,不同土地利用/覆被类型的单位面积土壤保持能力均呈增加趋势;除耕地外,其他地类的土壤保持总量均呈增加趋势。 相似文献
13.
Cameron W. Barrows Kristine L. Preston Michael F. Allen 《Biological conservation》2008,141(7):1885-1893
Estimating historic distributions of species is a critical step in evaluating current levels of habitat loss, evaluating sites for potential restoration and reintroductions, and for conservation planning at a landscape scale. However historic distributions can be difficult to estimate objectively because substantial habitat changes may have occurred prior to comprehensive surveys. As a means to address this question, we evaluated a novel approach by creating spatial niche models for two species of psammophilic lizards. Using a partitioned Mahalanobis D2 analysis and abiotic variables that were independent of anthropogenic change, we created niche models for the federally threatened Coachella Valley fringe-toed lizard (Uma inornata) and for the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii). The niche models estimated that within the Coachella Valley there were originally 32,164 ha of potential habitat for the fringe-toed lizard and 33,502 ha of potential habitat for the horned lizard. After screening these estimates of historic habitat for current conditions that would render that potential habitat unsuitable, we calculated a 91-95% loss of potential habitat for the fringe-toed lizard and an 83-92% loss for the horned lizard. Unlike the fringe-toed lizard, the horned lizard also occurs outside the Coachella Valley. Conducting a similar analysis throughout its range would provide an objective estimate of the total habitat loss experienced by this species. This information could be used to address whether granting it federal or state protection is warranted. For species whose distributions can be modeled with abiotic variables such as soils, elevation, topography, and climate, this approach may have broad applications for resolving questions regarding their current levels of habitat loss and regional conservation planning. 相似文献
14.
Randy Kautz Robert Kawula Jane Comiskey Dawn Jennings Frank Mazzotti Larry Richardson 《Biological conservation》2006,130(1):118-133
The Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) is an endangered, wide-ranging predator whose habitat needs conflict with a rapidly growing human population. Our goal was to identify specific regions of the south Florida landscape that are of high conservation value to support a self-sustaining panther population. We used compositional and Euclidean distance analyses to determine relative importance of various land cover types as panther habitat and to investigate the role of forest patch size in habitat selection. A model of landscape components important to Florida panther habitat conservation was created. The model was used in combination with radio telemetry records, home range overlaps, land use/land cover data, and satellite imagery to delineate Primary and Secondary zones that would comprise a landscape mosaic of cover types sufficient to support a self-sustaining population. The Primary Zone generally supports the present population and is of highest conservation value, while the Secondary Zone is of lesser value but could accommodate expansion of the population given sufficient habitat restoration. Least-cost path models identified important landscape linkages, and model results were used to delineate a Dispersal Zone to accommodate future panther dispersal outside of south Florida. We determined that the three habitat zones could support 80-94 panthers, a population likely to persist and remain stable for 100 years, but that would be subject to continued genetic problems. The Primary, Dispersal and Secondary zones comprise essential components of a landscape-scale conservation plan for the protection of a viable Florida panther population in south Florida. Assessments of potential impacts of developments should strive to achieve no net loss of landscape function or carrying capacity for panthers within the Primary Zone or throughout the present range of the Florida panther. 相似文献
15.
The effect of land cover/vegetation on soil water dynamic in the hilly area of the loess plateau,China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Severe soil and water loss has lead to widespread land degradation in China's loess plateau. During the past decades, a great deal of effort was made on vegetation restoration to reduce soil and water loss in the loess plateau. However, due to water shortage the efficiency of vegetation restoration was not as satisfactory as expected. As part of a vegetation restoration project, we conducted research aiming to understand the relationship between vegetation pattern and soil water dynamics. The goal was to find vegetation types appropriate for the loess plateau with scarce water resources. In 1986, fifteen plots of land were planted with five vegetation types: pine woodland, shrubland, sloping cropland, alfalfa and semi-natural grassland. Soil water content, runoff, soil erosion were measured for each plot. Environmental variables, such as rainfall, evaporation and temperature, were recorded simultaneously by an automated meteorological station. The relationship between land cover pattern and soil water dynamic was evaluated by using statistical models. We found that: (1) soil water loss occurred during the growing season, and it reached the maximum in the second half of July; (2) soil water was not fully replenished from rainfall during the rainy season; (3) pine woodland induced the largest water loss to surface runoff, followed by sloping cropland, alfalfa, semi-natural grassland and shrubland; the poor capability of pine woodland for water conservation may be attributed to soil compaction and poor ground coverage under the tree; (4) in most cases, soil water of the five vegetation types was low except for shrubland and semi-natural grassland where it was moderate-high during a few periods. These conditions inhibit sustainable vegetation growth in the semi-arid loess hilly area of the loess plateau, China. 相似文献
16.
Enrico Caprio Dan E. Chamberlain Marco Isaia Antonio Rolando 《Biological conservation》2011,144(12):2958-2967
There is a paucity of research on the wider landscape-level effects of ski-piste construction on alpine fauna. In this study, the response of alpine bird communities to the landscape changes induced by the construction of ski-pistes was investigated in the western Italian Alps. The aims were: (i) to test the hypothesis that ski-pistes have a detrimental effect on alpine grassland bird communities at a landscape-scale; and, (ii) to model local probability distributions of bird species according to different scenarios of ski-piste restoration and ski-piste proliferation above the treeline. Species richness and presence/absence data from point counts were analyzed in relation to GIS-derived landscape variables based on a 16 ha hexagon grid. Predictive variables were selected through the LASSO model selection procedure, and logistic regression was used to estimate the probability of occurrence of each species in each hexagon. Grassland species richness, and probability of occurrence of water pipit, wheatear and black redstart, significantly decreased with increasing extent of ski-piste edge. Length of ski-piste edge was in the set of best models considering a large range of habitat and landscape predictors, and are therefore clearly features that exert a strong negative effect on high alpine grassland bird communities. Predictions of species occurrence were made by applying the models to different scenarios of habitat change. These showed predicted detrimental impacts of a relatively small 10% increase in ski-piste extent, but also that grassland restoration on existing ski-pistes could result in significantly increased occurrence rates of alpine grassland species. This study suggests that ski-pistes are perceived by birds as detrimental features of the alpine landscape. To minimize their impact, new, environmentally–friendly ways of constructing pistes should be developed, which could include habitat restoration and management to obtain a level of grass cover such that edges of ski-pistes are no longer perceived by birds. 相似文献
17.
Generalised linear modelling (logistic regression) was used to predict habitat suitability for the yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) from data collected from 620 sites throughout southern Queensland, Australia. Of 42 potential explanatory biotic and abiotic variables, 12 were selected in the final model including an index describing bark characteristics of the overstorey, five climatic variables, three topographic/lithological variables, two landscape metrics and one survey covariate. The predictive capacity of the final model was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and an independent validation dataset (ROC = 0.75; n = 180). Of the extant forest and woodlands of the southern Queensland study region, the interpolated model predicted that approximately 19% was yellow-bellied glider habitat. The majority of predicted habitat occurred within public-owned forests, which are managed under a set of prescribed standards in a Code of Practice for commercial forest management. An important issue for conservation management of the yellow-bellied glider will be management of habitat on privately owned land, which incorporates over 27% of potential glider habitat. 相似文献
18.
Tom Chase 《Biological conservation》2007,136(1):65-75
The grasslands and heathlands of Martha’s Vineyard Island, Massachusetts provide habitat for unusual, rare, and endangered species. Currently, these globally rare ecosystems exist as fragments on the southern coast of the island within a matrix of wooded, agricultural, and developed land. We used existing land cover patterns to train a hierarchical tree classifier model according to 10 biogeoclimatic and positional variables. This model was then used to predict suitable sites where grasslands and heathlands do not presently occur but could be efficiently established. The tree classifier model indicates that many sites compatible with sandplain grasslands currently contain agricultural lands, residential development, mowed grassland, and commercial development. Efficient establishment could be undertaken at locations buffering existing grasslands to increase their extent by 67% relative to current conditions and join isolated fragments. Sites compatible with heathlands also currently contain agriculture and residential development as well as later successional vegetation including maritime forests and pitch pine. Conversion of these sites to heathlands, as indicated by the model, would increase the current extent by 25% and increase average patch size. An adaptive management approach to grassland and heathland supplementation could be employed to validate the causal mechanisms between the predictor variables and the vegetative communities. Testing of the predictive accuracy of the Martha’s Vineyard Island tree classifier models at other coastal sites would also provide information on the true mechanisms responsible for distribution patterns. 相似文献
19.
土地利用/覆被变化作为人类活动的直观反映，深刻改变着地表植被覆盖和地表径流，进而导致土壤保持功能的变化。采用趋势分析法对重庆市2000—2015年土壤保持功能的变化趋势进行研究，采用交叉敏感系数法研究各地类转换对土壤保持功能的敏感性。结果表明：（1）研究区地类以林地和旱地为主，2000—2015年间林地、裸地、水体和建设用地的面积有所增加，旱地、草地和水田的面积有所减少。其中，建设用地增幅最大，达0.93%，主要来源于旱地和水田的转换；旱地降幅最大，达0.85%，主要流向建设用地和林地。（2）研究区2000—2015年间土壤保持量总体呈波动上升趋势。其中，基本不变的区域占比77.22%，增加和显著增加区域占比21.85%，减少和显著减少的区域占比0.10%。增加和显著增加的区域主要集中在500~1 000 m的旱地和林地，减少和显著减少的区域主要为海拔500 m以下的旱地。（3）旱地与草地、水田与林地之间的转换对土壤保持功能的变化敏感性最高（敏感性系数分别为11.01和6.73），其次是旱地与裸地、水田、水体之间，草地与水体、裸地、林地之间以及林地与水体、裸地之间的转换，其敏感性系数均大于1。 相似文献
20.
The use of predictive habitat distribution models by land managers in the conservation management of threatened species is increasing. Few models, however, are subsequently field-checked and evaluated. This study evaluates the statistical strength and usefulness for conservation purposes of three predictive habitat models developed for a threatened stag beetle, Hoplogonus simsoni, found in the wet eucalypt forests and mixed/rainforests of north-east Tasmania. The relationship between various environmental variables for which spatial (GIS) information was available and the density, frequency of occurrence and presence/absence of the species was investigated using generalised linear modelling. Models developed were coupled with the GIS data to develop maps of predicted occurrence within the species’ range, grouped into categories of habitat quality. The models found that altitude, aspect, slope, distance to nearest stream and overstorey tree height were significantly associated with the occurrence of the species. Evaluation of the statistical strength of the models with independent data of species’ occurrence collected at 95 sites found that the density model performed poorly with little correlation between predicted and observed densities of the species. The frequency of occurrence model, however, showed a moderate ability to predict both species’ abundance and presence/absence. The presence/absence model had a similar discriminatory ability in predicting presence or absence of H. simsoni, but also showed some potential as an indirect predictor of species’ abundance. Assuming a correlation between relative abundance and habitat quality, the frequency of occurrence predictive model appeared to be the better and more direct discriminator of high quality habitat relative to the other models. The value of species’ habitat models and the need to evaluate their utility in the development of conservation strategies are discussed. 相似文献