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1.
《农业科学学报》2014,13(1):1-17
The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers.The review of literature shows that climate change will have a significant impact on agriculture,primarily through its effect on crop yields.The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop,the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities.Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists.On adaptation,the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies,reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity.Farmers do adapt to climate change,but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change.The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies. 相似文献
2.
Household and Community Assets and Farmers＇ Adaptation to Extreme Weather Event： the Case of Drought in China 
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下载免费PDF全文 Under climate change, rising frequency and serious extreme weather events have challenged agricultural production. Designing appropriate adaptation measures to the extreme weather events require rigorous and empirical analysis. The overall goals of this study are to understand physical adaptation measures taken by farmers and the impacts of household and community assets on farmers＇ adaptation when they face drought. The analyses are based on a unique data set collected from a household survey in three provinces in China. The survey results show that though not common on annual basis, some farmers did use physical adaptation measures to fight drought. Regression analysis reveals that both household and community assets significantly affect farmers＇ adaptation behaviors. Improving households＇ social capital and wealth, communities＇ network and access to government＇s anti-drought service can facilitate farmers＇ adaptation to drought. Results indicate that community＇s irrigation infrastructure and physical adaptation taken by farmers can substitute each other. Further analysis shows that the households taking adaptation measures have higher crop yields than those without taking these measures. The paper concludes with several policy implications. 相似文献
3.
Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation.Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability.Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China.The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system.In this paper,recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches.The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced.The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized.The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models,emission scenarios and the crops simulation models.Moreover,studies have different spatial resolutions,and methods for general circulation model(GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment.However,the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change(at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10% for China in these assessments.In most literatures,the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase.Finally,the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops.The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios,CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options.Therefore,more studies on the fields such as free air CO 2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out. 相似文献
4.
Agriculture is facing great challenge in meeting global food security and is expected to face even greater challenge under climate change. The overall goal of this paper is to examine how finance can be used to achieve the joint objectives of development, mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture in developing world based on literature review. The results show that agriculture is much under invested and foreign aid also has not increased appropriately to assist developing countries to maintain sustainable agriculture under climate change. There are a wide range of areas in mitigation of and adaptation to climate change that need substantial investment. Major areas and successful cases mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture that have worked in developing countries are examined. A list of areas that have worked, could work and be scaled up or transferred is identified and discussed. This study concludes that mainstreaming agricultural mitigation and adaptation into agricultural development programs, enhancing local capacity, and considering different stakeholders＇ needs are major experiences for successfully financing sustainable agriculture under climate change. 相似文献
5.
Farmers' perceptions, beliefs, adaptive strategies, and barriers regarding climate change are critical to promoting sustainable ecosystems and societal stability. This paper is based on an extensive survey of 1 500 farmers and their households in Henan Province in China during 2013–2014. Henan is the largest agricultural province in China with over 51 million farmers. The survey results showed that approximately 57% of the respondents perceived the direct impact of climate change during the past 10 years, with 70.3% believing that climate change posed a risk to their livelihood. Not surprisingly, most farmers reported that they have adopted new measures to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The main barriers hindering farmers' adopting adaptation measures were lack of funds and timely information. A multinomial logit model revealed that land ownership, knowledge of crop variety and the causes of climate change, as well as the belief of climate change, were all positively related to the likelihood of employing adaptive strategies. Moreover, the percentage of households engaging in agriculture activity, and years of engaging in farming were both negatively correlated with famer's likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. More importantly, farmers with high incomes were less likely to adopt adaptive strategies and more willing to engage in other business activities. In conclusion, it is important to communicate climate change related information and government policies in rural areas, promote farmer associations and other educational outreach efforts to assist Chinese farmers to deal with climate change. 相似文献
6.
Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The overall goal of this paper is to examine impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance and their consequences on agricultural production in ten river basins in China. To realize this goal, China Water Simulation Model (CWSM) is used to analyze three alternative climate scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2). The results show that the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand balance differ largely among alternative scenarios. While significant impacts of climate change on water balance will occur under the A1B scenario, the impacts of climate change under the A2 and B2 scenarios will be marginal. Under the A1B scenario, the water shortage in the river basins located in the northern China will become more serious, particularly in Liaohe and Haihe river basins, but the other river basins in the southern China will improve their water balance situations. Despite larger impacts of climate change on water balance in the northern China, its impacts on total crops’ production will be moderate if farmers would be able to reallocate water among crops and adjust irrigated and rainfed land. The paper concludes with some policy implications. 相似文献
7.
Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversification and which factors influence farmers＇ decisions on crop diversification against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and flood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study finds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversification. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers＇ behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers＇ decisions on crop diversification strategy, and their effects differ by farmers＇ age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications. 相似文献
8.
CHEN Zhuochun 《东北农业大学学报(英文版)》2009,16(4):70-77
Mitigation and adaptation are two principle strategies for managing human-induced climate change. Agriculture plays a duet role in climate change. It has been a major source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. It is also one of the sectors most vulnerable to the risks and impacts of global climate change. This paper first indentified the mitigative and adaptative options and potential in agriculture, then addressed the integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation and its benefits for agriculture. Finally, it discussed the implications to Chinese agriculture in dealing with the global climate change. 相似文献
9.
LI Hai-ming HU Rui-fa ZHANG Shi-huang 《中国农业科学(英文版)》2006,5(8):563-571
Wide adoption of a few kinds of homogeneous germplasm would reduce crop genetic diversity, increase crop vulnerability to stresses, and reduce the stability of crop production. The introduction and utilization of foreign germplasm is a sustainable solution for broadening the genetic diversity and promoting periodical replacement of varieties. The genetic contribution and economic impact of foreign germplasm, particularly those of US and CGIAR （Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, referred to as the CG system） materials, on China＇s maize production are evaluated on the basis of an analysis of variety pedigree information from 20 major maize-producing provinces in China from 1982 to 1997. The results indicated that the contribution of US and CG germplasm to Chinese maize production continues to increase, particularly CG germplasm, which has shown a rapid increasing trend since the 1990s. If the genetic contribution of US germplasm is increased by 1%, maize yield will gain by 0.2% （0.01 t ha^-1）. If contribution of CG germplasm, which has greater production potential, is increased by 1%, maize yield will gain by 0.025 t ha^-1. A policy should be implicated by the government in this direction to encourage breeders to focus more on the use and improvement of CG germplasm. The US germplasm has been utilized extensively in China so that it can offer germplasm resources for maize breeding efforts. 相似文献
10.
China is the world’s most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, China’s role in climate change has received a great deal of attention, whereas the impact of climate change on China has been largely ignored. Studies on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation strategies are increasingly becoming major areas of scientific concern. However, the clear warming that has been sounded in China in recent decades has not been matched with a clear assessment of the impact of climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture. In the present study, we review observations on climate change, hydrology, and agriculture in China and relate these observations to likely future changes. We also analyse the adaptive strategies in China’s agriculture. 相似文献
11.
Climate change adaptation,greenhouse gas mitigation and economic profitability of conservation agriculture: Some examples from cereal systems of Indo-Gangetic Plains 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Achieving sustainability of the cereal system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains(IGP)of India under progressive climate change and variability necessitates adoption of practices and technologies that increase food production,adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way.This paper examines conservation agriculture(CA)from the perspective of:(i)increased yield and farm income,(ii)adaptation to heat and water stresses,and(iii)reduction in greenhouse gas(GHGs)emissions.The analyses and conclusions are based on the literature and evidences from a large number of on-station as well as farmers’field trials on CA in the cereal systems of IGP.Our analyses show that CA-based system substantially reduces the production cost(up to 23%)but produces equal or even higher than conventional system;thereby increasing economic profitability of production system.CA-based production systems also moderated the effect of high temperature(reduced canopy temperature by 1–4°C)and increased irrigation water productivity by 66–100%compared to traditional production systems thus well adapting to water and heat stress situations of IGP.Our continuous monitoring of soil flux of CO2,N2O and CH4 revealed that CA-based rice-wheat systems emit 10–15%less GHGs than conventional systems.This is the first time that CA and its components are synthesized and analyzed from food security-climate change nexus.From this holistic analysis,we suggest that wide-scale promotion of suitable CA practices by integrating into national agriculture development strategy is a way forward to address food security,climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges faced by present agriculture. 相似文献
12.
Climate change is expected to have substantial effects on agricultural productivity worldwide. However, these impacts will differ across commodities, locations and time periods. As a result, landowners will see changes in relative returns that are likely to induce modifications in production practices and land allocation. In addition, regional variations in impacts can alter relative competitiveness across countries and lead to adjustments in international trade patterns. Thus in climate change impact studies it is likely useful to account for worldwide productivity effects. In this study, we investigate the implications of considering rest of world climate impacts on projections of the US agricultural exports. We chose to focus on the US because it is one of the largest agricultural exporters. To conduct our analyses, we consider four alternative climate scenarios, both with and without rest of world climate change impacts. Our results show that considering/ignoring rest of world climate impacts causes significant changes in the US production and exports projections. Thus we feel climate change impact studies should account not only for climate impacts in the country of focus but also on productivity in the rest of the world in order to capture effects on commodity markets and trade potential. 相似文献
13.
Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield in China From 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The impacts of climate change on rice yield in China from 1961 to 2010 were studied in this paper, based on the provincial data, in order to develop scientiifc countermeasures. The results indicated that increase of average temperature improved single cropping rice production on national level by up to 11%relative to the average over the study period, however, it resulted in an overall loss of double cropping rice by up to 1.9%. The decrease of diurnal temperature range （DTR） in the major producing regions caused the decrease by up to 3.0%for single cropping rice production and 2.0%for double cropping rice production. Moreover, the contribution of precipitation change reached about 6.2%for single cropping rice production, but no signiifcant effect for double cropping rice production in recent 50 years. 相似文献
14.
Water plays an important role in food production especially rice. Rice productivity depends greatly on sufficient water to meet evaporative demand and soil moisture. It is certain thalL rice, the most important crop of Thailand and Vietnam, is vulnerable to climate change. This paper proposes an analysis on the impact of climate on rice water requirement and food security in Thailand and Vietnam. Water demand, yield and production of rice were computed under the changed surface air temperature for three time slices, namely 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Food security was analyzed from rice supply （calculated milled-rice product, rice stock, and imports） and demand （domestic uses from population growth, exports to world market, domestic seed and other uses）. The result showed that, under the higher surface air temperature scenario, water requirement office in Thailand and Vietnam could increase by 1.8 times in the end of the 21 st century. Production of rice dropped by declined yield. Thailand and Vietnam which is the world largest rice exporter in last decades will face the rice shortage in 2080s and 2030s respectively. 相似文献
15.
In this paper the authors inquire why, after more than 25 years of domestic agricultural reforms in Mexico and 15 years of trade liberalization of maize under the North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA）, the domestic production of maize, a non-competitive crop and the major staple in Mexico, has increased. The authors present new empirical evidence showing that, as expected, maize prices in Mexico dropped until 2006 and have experienced a process of convergence with USA prices, and maize imports from the USA have increased. However, despite lower prices, maize production in Mexico has trended upward since 1992, two years before the beginning of NAFTA＇s implementation. Based on the heterogeneity of maize production in Mexico, three possible explanations are proposed to explain this unexpected outcome： government supports to big commercial farmers in the agriculturally rich North of Mexico; the persistence of maize production by subsistence farmers; and to a lesser degree, increasing yields on some irrigated maize farms. We finish the paper by drawing lessons from the experience of Mexico for other Less Developed Countries. 相似文献
16.
Jian-zhai WU Jing ZHANG Zhang-ming GE Li-wei XING Shu-qing HAN Chen SHEN Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299
Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period. 相似文献
17.
Joseph Adunbi Ogundele 《农业科学与技术》2014,(4):323-330
The resultant climate change on sustainable food supply has greatly affected agricultural production by the level of great volumes of gasses emitted into the atmosphere by human activities. The human factors that emit large amount of green house gases include industrialization, burning of fossil fuel and gas flaring. Increase in air temperature and consequent increase in the rates of evaporation also affect the level of food supply. Data for this study were collected from primary and secondary sources. Primary source were collected through field investigation and structured questionnaire. A total of 450 questionnaires were administered. Results revealed that varieties of crops ranging from tree crops to cereals were cultivated within the study area. The effect of climate change on food supply has resulted into change in crop yields, change in rainfall pattern, soil loss and has greatly affected planting period and harvesting. The study therefore recommended awareness campaigns on the causes and consequences of global climate change on food production, environmental education and afforestation campaign programmes on sustainable food supply and environmental safety must be intensified. 相似文献
18.
YU Qiang-yi ;WU Wen-bin ;LIU Zhen-huan ;Peter H Verburg ;XIA Tian ;YANG Peng ;LU Zhong-jun ;YOU Liang-zhi ;TANG Hua-jun 《中国农业科学(英文版)》2014,(7):1599-1608
Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data （presents farmers＇ personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change） associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data （presents real-world climate change） were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level. A case study at Bin County （1980s-2010s）, Northeast China, suggested that increased annual average temperature （0.6＆#176;C per decade） and decreased annual precipitation （46 mm per decade, both from meteorological datasets） were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%, respectively, of farmers from the survey, and that a longer growing season was conifrmed by 70%of them. These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change：Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice, which led to a signiifcant yield increase for both crops. The longer season also affected crop choice：More farmers selected maize instead of soybean, as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area. Comparing warming-related factors, we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers＇ agricultural decisions. As a result, crop and variety selection, rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement, was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region. 相似文献
19.
Circular agriculture is an inevitable course to realize positive cycle of ecology and harmonious development of rural areas. Beijing＇s mountainous areas depend on the background and orientation of ecological economy for sustainable development. It is of great significance to explore the development of the circular agriculture in the mountainous areas to facilitate sustainable use of agriculture resources. Beijing＇s mountainous areas have accumulated considerable experiences in boosting the circular agriculture. By summarizing the modes of circular agriculture in mountainous areas and analyzing their actual practices, the paper proposes we need to give high priority to strengthening publicity efforts, giving full play to resources advantages of mountainous areas, and establishing a management mechanism and operation mechanism to promote the development of circular agriculture in Beijing. 相似文献
20.
Climate change is one of the most significant environment issues in the whole world today. And it is one of the most complex challenges of the humanities faced in the 21st century. Climate Change is impacted on our global; nobody can avoid the influence of climate change. The local adaptation strategies on climate change are very important to contribute the mitigation and poverty stricken situation, both in China and in the world. We chose a typical China’s province as a case to analyze the impact of climate change on the region (such as agricultural, natural ecosystems, water resources, as well as local people healthy condition), and how the local government and local residences face the impact of the climate change influence, and summarized several strategies on climate change of the area in a sustainable development way. 相似文献