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1.
气候变化对长江中下游稻区水稻产量的影响   总被引:22,自引:0,他引:22  
选择长江中下游平原作为研究区域,按照政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案,将基于区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与水稻生长模型ORYZA2000结合,模拟基准时段(1961—1990)气候(Baseline)和2021—2050时段A2、B2情景下的水稻产量,分析未来气候变化对长江中下游水稻产量的影响。构建两种影响评估方法,重点分析增温和大气CO2肥效作用对水稻产量的影响。结果表明,不考虑CO2肥效作用时,随着温度升高,水稻生育期缩短,产量下降。A2情景下水稻生育期平均缩短4.5d,产量减少15.2%;B2情景下平均缩短3.4d,产量减少15%。其中,减产达到20%以上的区域集中在安徽中南部、湖北东南部和湖南东部地区。当考虑CO2肥效作用后,A2情景下水稻平均产量减少5.1%,B2情景平均减少5.8%。减产区域缩小且幅度降低,江西和浙江部分地区则呈现一定程度增产,但增幅10%。大气CO2肥效作用一定程度上可提高水稻产量,使晚稻在增温的不利影响下仍呈现不同程度的增产态势,但对单季稻和早稻的增产贡献仍不足以抵消升温的负面影响。另外,大气CO2肥效作用可有利于提高未来气候变化下水稻的稳产性。  相似文献   

2.
Spatial evaluation of the uncertainty associated with climate data would allow reliable interpretation of simulation results for regional crop yield using gridded climate data as input to a crop growth model. The objective of this study was to examine the spatial uncertainty of regional climate model data through determining optimal seeding date with the ORYZA2000 model for assessment of climate change impact on rice productivity in Korea. The optimal seeding date was determined at each grid point using regional climate model outputs under the RCP 8.5 scenarios. In major rice production areas such as inland plain regions, where temperatures of regional climate data were relatively accurate, the optimal seeding date determined using those gridded data were reasonable. However, areas with complex terrains including areas near bodies of water, e.g. coastal areas, riverbasins, lakes, and mountainous areas, had a relatively large uncertainty of the optimal seeding date determined using the regional climate data. These results indicated that the uncertainty of regional climate data at a high spatial resolution of 12.5 km should be taken into account in the regional impact assessment based on crop growth simulations in Korea. In addition, further studies would be merited to assess the impact of climate change on rice yield at an ultra-high spatial resolution of 1 km in Korea. Crop yields were projected to decrease after the 2020s when crop yield simulations from inland plain areas were considered, which suggested that adaptation strategies should be established and implemented in the near future.  相似文献   

3.
气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响   总被引:7,自引:4,他引:3  
摘要:将福建省划分为三个水稻种植区,选取19个样点,采用近5年(2000-2004年)中逢单年份的产量进行CERES-Rice模型参数的调试,逢双年份的产量用于检验模型在研究区域的适用性;利用GISS GCM Transient Run 的输出值生成了每个样点2030及2050年的气候变化情景;在各情景文件下运行CERES-Rice模型,并将模拟结果与当前气候情景(BASE情景)下的模拟值进行比较,再结合蒸散比(β)、产量波动系数(F)等指标,定量评价了未来气候渐变过程对福建省水稻生产的影响;在此基础上提出了适应气候渐变的若干可能对策。研究结果表明:在未来气候变化过程中,(1)研究区域水稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润;(2)研究区域早稻及单季稻生育期都将不同程度的缩短,后季稻2050情景下有所延长;(3)闽东南及闽西北双季稻区产量在未来两种气候情景下均表现为减产,且减产幅度随温度升高而加大。闽西北山地气候的单季稻区表现为增产;(4)当前闽东南水稻的稳产性最差,闽西北双季稻区的稳产性较好。未来气候变化中水稻稳产性将变差;(5)未来两种气候情景下福建省水稻总产将随着温度的升高而减少。  相似文献   

4.
We investigated the impact of GCM-projected climate change on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow and wheat-corn-fallow in the Central Great Plains (Akron in Colorado, USA) using the CERES 4.0 crop modules in RZWQM2. The climate change scenarios for CO2, temperature, and precipitation were produced by 22 GCM projections for Colorado based on the A1B scenario. The climate change for years 2050 and 2075 was super-imposed on measured 30-year-baseline climate data (1989–2008). For all the cropping rotations and projection years, simulated yields of wheat and corn decreased significantly (P < 0.05) with increasing temperatures. The yield declines due to the elevated temperatures should be attributable to the shortening of crop maturity duration and concurrent decreases in soil water and evapotranspiration. The model was also projected to decrease crop yields for the combined climate change scenarios of CO2, temperature, and precipitation in the dryland cropping rotations.  相似文献   

5.
Using CROPGRO-Chickpea model (revised version), we investigated the impacts of climate change on the productivity of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) at selected sites in South Asia (Hisar, Indore and Nandhyal in India and Zaloke in Myanmar) and East Africa (Debre Zeit in Ethiopia, Kabete in Kenya and Ukiriguru in Tanzania). We also investigated the potential benefits of incorporating drought and heat tolerance traits in chickpea using the chickpea model and the virtual cultivars approach. As compared to the baseline climate, the climate change by 2050 (including CO2) increased the yield of chickpea by 17% both at Hisar and Indore, 18% at Zaloke, 25% at Debre Zeit and 18% at Kabete; whereas the yields decreased by 16% at Nandhyal and 7% at Ukiriguru. The yield benefit due to increased CO2 by 2050 ranged from 7 to 20% across sites as compared to the yields under current atmospheric CO2 concentration; while the changes in temperature and rainfall had either positive or negative impact on yield at the sites. Yield potential traits (maximum leaf photosynthesis rate, partitioning of daily growth to pods and seed-filling duration each increased by 10%) increased the yield of virtual cultivars up to 12%. Yield benefit due to drought tolerance across sites was up to 22% under both baseline and climate change scenarios. Heat tolerance increased the yield of chickpea up to 9% at Hisar and Indore under baseline climate, and up to 13% at Hisar, Indore, Nandhyal and Ukiriguru under climate change. At other sites (Zaloke, Debre Zeit and Kabete) the incorporation of heat tolerance under climate change had no beneficial effect on yield. Considering varied crop responses to each plant trait across sites, this study was useful in prioritizing the plant traits for location-specific breeding of chickpea cultivars for higher yields under climate change at the selected sites in South Asia and East Africa.  相似文献   

6.
Location specific adaptation option is required to minimize adverse impact of climate change on rice production. In the present investigation, we calibrated genotype coefficients of four cultivars in the CERES-Rice model for simulation of rice yield under elevated CO2 environment and evaluation of the cultivar adaptation in subtropical India. The four cultivars (IR 36, Swarna, Swarn sub1, and Badshabhog) were grown in open field and in Open Top Chamber (OTC) of ambient CO2 (≈390 ppm) and elevated CO2 environment (25% higher than the ambient) during wet season (June–November) of the years 2011 and 2012 at Kharagpur, India. The genotype coefficients; P1 (basic vegetative phase), P2R (photoperiod sensitivity) and P5 (grain filling phase) were higher, but G1 (potential spikelet number) was lower under the elevated CO2 environment as compared to their open field value in all the four cultivars. Use of the calibrated model of elevated CO2 environment simulated the changes in grain yield of −13%, −17%, −4%, and +7% for the cultivars IR 36, Swarna, Swarna sub1, and Badshabhog, respectively, with increasing CO2 level of 100 ppm and rising temperature of 1 °C as compared to the ambient CO2 level and temperature and they were comparable with observed yield changes from the OTC experiment. Potential impacts of climate change were simulated for climate change scenarios developed from HadCM3 global climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (A2 and B2) for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080. Use of the future climate data simulated a continuous decline in rice grain yield from present years to the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 for the cultivars IR 36 and Swarna in A2 as well as B2 scenario with rising temperature of ≥0.8 °C. Whereas, the cultivar Swarna sub1 was least affected and Badshabhog was favoured under elevated CO2 with rising temperature up to 2 °C in the sub-tropical climate of India.  相似文献   

7.
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) is an important component of global climate change that will have a significant impact on the productivity of crop plants. In recent years, growth and yield of agricultural crop plants have been shown to increase with elevated CO2 (EC) and have enticed considerable interest due to variation in the response of crop plants. In this study, comparative response of two mung bean cultivars (HUM‐2 and HUM‐6) was evaluated against EC at different growth stages under near‐natural conditions for two consecutive years. The plants were grown in ambient as well as EC (700 ppm) in specially designed open‐top chambers. Under elevated CO2, marked down‐regulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels, membrane disruption and activities of superoxide dismutase and catalase were noticed in both the cultivars, but the extent of reduction was more in HUM‐6. As compared to ambient CO2, EC increased total chlorophyll, photosynthetic rate, growth and yield parameters. Cultivar‐specific response was noticed as HUM‐6 showed higher increase in yield attributes than HUM‐2. Under CO2 treatment, soluble protein and reducing sugars decreased while total soluble sugars and starch showed an opposite trend. Principal component analysis showed that both the cultivars responded more or less similarly to EC in their respective groupings of physiological and growth parameters, but the magnitude of ROS and antioxidative enzymes was variable. The experimental findings depict that both the cultivars of mung bean showed contrasting response against EC and paved the way for selecting the suitable cultivar having higher productivity in a future high‐CO2 environment.  相似文献   

8.
Increasing atmospheric CO2 is recognized as a major aspect of global climate change that would have a significant impact on the productivity of major agricultural crops. Two field experiments were done, with the objective of quantifying the response of a short‐duration rice (Oryza sativa) variety (BG‐300) to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the low elevation, subhumid zone of Sri Lanka. The experiment contained three treatments. In the elevated CO2 treatment, rice was grown at a CO2 concentration of 570 µmol/mol within open top chambers (OTC s). The ambient CO2 treatment included crops grown within OTC s, but maintained at the ambient CO2 concentration of 370 µmol/mol. The third treatment was a crop grown in the open field under ambient CO2 concentration. Grain yields of rice crops grown under elevated CO2 were 24 % and 39 % greater than the respective ambient treatments in the maha (January – March 2001) and yala (May – August, 2001) seasons. Significant increases in total biomass at harvest (23 % and 39 %, respectively, in maha and yala) were more responsible for the above yield increases than the slight increases in the harvest index (4 % and 2 %). Yields of the ambient and open field treatments did not differ significantly. Among the yield components, the number of panicles per hill was significantly higher in the elevated treatment and showed significant positive correlations with grain yield in both seasons. In addition, grain yield showed significant positive correlations with the percentage of filled grains in maha and the number of grains per panicle in yala. Significant increases in the number of tillers per hill under elevated CO2 were responsible for its greater leaf area index and the greater numbers of panicles per hill. Crops under elevated CO2 accumulated biomass faster than those grown under ambient CO2 during the vegetative and grain‐filling stages. The results of this study demonstrate that elevated CO2 causes significant yield increases in rice, even when it is grown in warm, subhumid tropical climates.  相似文献   

9.
The impact of climate change has been simulated or estimated to bring about yield decline and quality deterioration of rice in Korea, a temperate country. To cope with these negative impacts, here we propose likely changes in the standard cultivation practices of rice in consideration of the current information on the progress/prediction of climate change and related physiological aspects of rice. Shifting grain-filling period could be a promising choice to optimize temperature for rice grain-filling, a crucial growth stage to productivity, hence providing rice plants with sufficient duration and solar radiation for the period. This choice, however, shortens days to flowering by the additive combined effects of high temperature by delayed transplanting, temperature rise itself by climate change, and accelerated phase change of rice by high temperature and short day-length. These combined effects may delay the time of transplanting in a great extent, hence reducing biomass accumulation of rice before flowering. In these conditions, recovering decreased biomass production is the key concern for rice productivity. This includes raising healthy seedlings by omitting the covering process, dense planting, and nutrient management to enhance plant’s uptake activity. Current standard water management, especially mid-term drainage and intermittent irrigation, would have more importance in the future since they mitigate methane emission from the paddy. Field monitoring for weeds and pests would be an important first step to identify newly developing or thriving species for establishing subsequent controlling strategies. Earlier weed control should be emphasized through adjusting time of herbicide application.  相似文献   

10.
Climate change is an apparent phenomenon affecting life in many aspects including crop production, so the assessment of its impact on crop production is urgently required to establish strategies and technologies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Numerous efforts have been made to investigate the effects of climate change with emphases on elevated temperature and CO2 on crops, to assess climate change impact on crop production, and to develop application technologies for coping with climate change in a sustainable manner. This special issue of JCSB contains a collection of peer-reviewed research articles covering the impact of microclimate conditions on crop production (4 papers), modeling approaches for impact assessment (3 papers), and applications of crop science and biotechnology for climate change adaptation (3 papers). It is believed that this special issue will help crop scientists broaden their knowledge and understanding on climate change issues in crop production and facilitate research in crop science and biotechnology in battling against climate change to sustain current crop production and increase future crop production to feed ever continuously increasing human population.  相似文献   

11.
为研究潍坊市未来气候变化趋势,分析其对当地小麦生产的影响,利用区域气候模式PRECIS对2021—2050年潍坊市气温及降水量进行模拟,并将气象数据输入作物模型,对未来气候变化下小麦的生长状况进行模拟。结果表明,未来潍坊市将会出现气温升高、降水增多的趋势;气候变暖会导致潍坊市小麦生育期提前,产量降低;若考虑CO2的肥效作用,小麦会增产。  相似文献   

12.
气候变化背景下陕西关中西部作物气候生产潜力变化特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为了研究气候变化背景下关中西部作物气候生产潜力变化规律,选用宝鸡市11个气象站1961—2010年温度、降水等气象资料,应用Tuynthwhite Memoral模式计算分析宝鸡地区作物气候生产力状况及其变化趋势。结果表明:关中西部气候生产力呈递减趋势;年及各季平均气温均呈明显上升趋势,降水量呈下降趋势;气候暖干化使作物气候生产潜力以35.69 kg/(hm2·10 a)的速率波动下降,降水是主要限制因子;气候生产力利用率平均为34.8%,作物生产有较大的发展潜力;未来气候情景下,“暖湿型”气候对区域作物生产最有利,平均增产幅度8.5%~22.5%,而“冷干型”气候对作物生产最不利,平均减产幅度为5.7%~20.8%。  相似文献   

13.
Uncertainty of crop yield simulation would be affected by weather input data prepared from different sources of climate datasets. Although regional climate data at a high spatial resolution would be useful for the impact assessment of climate change on crop production, little effort has been made to characterize the uncertainty associated with such climate data in terms of crop yield simulations. The objectives of this study were to compare climate scenario data products obtained from a series of downscaling processes and to identify an overall pattern of uncertainty in these climate data in terms of crop yield simulation. Regional climate scenario data from 2011 to 2014 had a spatiotemporal pattern of uncertainty, which differed by meteorological variables and spatial resolution. Overall, the uncertainty of daily minimum temperature was greater than that of maximum temperature. Daily minimum temperature also had relatively greater uncertainty in an early season of crop production, which could result in the cumulative impact on the uncertainty of crop yield simulations. For the uncertainty of climate data at different spatial resolution, climate data at higher spatial resolution, e.g. 1 km, tended to have lower uncertainty than data at resolution of 12.5 km did. Still, the uncertainty of regional climate data was relatively similar between data at resolution of 12.5 km and 1 km in major rice production areas in Korea except in areas near Seosan. This merits further studies to examine actual differences in projected crop yields using regional climate scenario data in the future and to assess the impact of uncertainty associated with regional climate data on crop yield simulation.  相似文献   

14.
福建省基于自适应调整的水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
江敏  金之庆  石春林  林文雄 《作物学报》2012,38(12):2246-2257
将福建省划分为3 个稻区, 共选取17 个样点和9 个代表性品种开展气候变化影响评价研究。首先, 根据IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2、B2、A1B 三种方案和区域气候模式(PRECIS), 生成了研究区域两个时段(1961-1990 年, 2021-2050 年)的气候变化情景; 然后, 采用经验证的CERES-Rice 模型, 模拟分析了福建省各稻区在未来不同气候变化情景下可能的稻作制度、品种搭配及水稻播期, 并认为这是水稻生产自适应调整后的结果; 接着, 以调整后的稻作制度、品种搭配及水稻播期作为CERES-Rice 模型新的输入, 在3 种气候变化情景下再次进行模拟试验, 最后得出未来经过自适应调整后的水稻产量、稳产性以及全省水稻总产的变化。结果表明: 在A2、B2、A1B 三种气候变化情景下, 闽东南双季稻区的早稻模拟产量经自适应调整后, 较之不考虑这种调整依次提高了15.9%、18.0%和19.2%, 后季稻依次提高了9.2%、7.4%和7.4%; 闽西北双季稻区的早稻模拟产量依次提高了21.2%、20.5%和18.9%, 后季稻依次提高了14.7%、14.8%和7.2%。考虑自适应调整后, 闽西北山地单季稻区的水稻模拟产量在A2、B2、A1B 情景下, 较之不考虑这种调整依次增产4.9%、5.0%和2.9%, 其中长汀在A2 与B2 情景下可改种双季稻。在综合考虑水稻生产自适应调整后, 福建省水稻模拟总产表现为增产, 在A2、B2 与A1B 情景下较之当前依次增加5.9%、5.2%和5.1%。因此,在气候变化影响评价研究中, 将水稻生产的自适应能力考虑在内, 不仅科学合理, 而且可以得到较为乐观的结论。  相似文献   

15.
气候变化情景下阿拉善盟灌溉玉米对水资源的适应性研究   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
为了研究未来气候变化情景下,非充分灌溉对玉米产量的影响情况及玉米生产可采取的节水型灌溉方式,利用作物模型和PRECIS模拟输出的吉兰泰地区的未来时段的气候数据、历史观测数据,模拟设计了多个灌溉水平,分析当地玉米的水分生产力,并选取最优灌溉方案。结果表明:当前种植中存在灌溉用水偏多、无效灌溉现象明显;未来气候变化情景下,不同的灌溉水平对玉米生育期的影响较小,主要影响产量和生物量;A2、B2气候情景下,采用58%充分灌溉量的灌溉方式其水分生产力均达0.68、0.80 kg/m3的最大值,玉米单产可达充分灌溉条件下的77%~82%,并且比充分灌溉方式节约用水2700 m3/hm2。因此,当地应采取选择非充分灌溉方式,节约农用水,提高水分生产力。  相似文献   

16.
PEPC过表达可以减轻干旱胁迫对水稻光合的抑制作用   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
周宝元  丁在松  赵明 《作物学报》2011,37(1):112-118
为了明确磷酸烯醇式丙酮酸羧化酶(PEPC)过量表达能否提高水稻的光合速率,测定了42个表达不同PEPC水平的转玉米PEPC基因水稻株系及对照(受体亲本中花8号)开花期和灌浆期的光合速率。结果表明,在水田条件下,转基因株系光合速率与未转基因对照相比没有明显差异;而在旱地条件下,转基因水稻的光合速率显著高于对照(27%和24%)。随机选取2个PEPC相对活性分别为10倍和25倍的转基因株系进行网室精确控水盆栽实验得到相似的结果。说明单纯导入PEPC并不能提高水稻的光合速率,而干旱胁迫下转基因水稻的光合优势可能是由于PEPC参与水稻的抗旱反应而减轻了干旱胁迫对光合作用的抑制作用。  相似文献   

17.
Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision‐making and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on sugarcane grown under dryland conditions in Mexico and identified key climate factors influencing yield. The Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria (ALMANAC) model was used to simulate sugarcane growth and yield under current and future climate conditions. Management, soil and climate data from farm sites in Jalisco (Pacific Mexico) and San Luis Potosi (Northeastern Mexico) were used to simulate baseline yields. Baseline climate was developed with 30‐year historical data from weather stations close to the sites. Future climate for three decadal periods (2021–2050) was constructed by adding forecasted climate values from downscaled outputs of global circulation models to baseline values. Climate change impacts were assessed by comparing baseline yields with those in future decades under the A2 scenario. Results indicate positive impacts of future climate change on sugarcane yields in the two regions, with increases of 1%–13% (0.6–8.0 Mg/ha). As seen in the multiple correlation analysis, evapotranspiration explains 77% of the future sugarcane yield in the Pacific Region, while evapotranspiration and number of water and temperature stress days account for 97% of the future yield in the Northeastern Region. The midsummer drought (canicula) in the Pacific Region is expected to be more intense and will reduce above‐ground biomass by 5%–13% (0.5–1.7 Mg/ha) in July–August. Harvest may be advanced by 1–2 months in the two regions to achieve increases in yield and avoid early flowering that could cause sucrose loss of 0.49 Mg ha?1 month?1. Integrating the simulation of pest and diseases under climate change in crop modelling may help fine‐tune yield forecasting.  相似文献   

18.
Climate change is expected to affect agricultural crop production in the Philippines. Several studies were already done to quantify the effect of climate change on agricultural crop production in the country. Most of these studies focus only on the effect of climate change on crop yield. This study estimated the effect of climate change on the area (suitable area) for corn production. Using the Land Use Suitability Evaluation Tool (LUSET), change in corn suitability in the province of Isabela was estimated for the years 2050, 2060, and 2070. Based on the results, climate change will negatively impact corn suitability in the province. Decreasing trend in corn suitability rating was observed due to increasing temperature resulting to loss of highly suitable areas for corn production. For example, during the first cropping season the estimated average decreases in suitability scores due to an increase in temperature were 6.7, 11.4, and 20.7% in the years 2050, 2060, and 2070, respectively. These decreases in suitability resulted in the loss of 6,777 ha highly suitable areas for corn production.  相似文献   

19.
气候变化对中国水稻生产的影响研究进展   总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12  
水稻生产系统是响应气候变化最敏感的农业生态系统之一,本文综述了当前和未来气候变化对我国水稻生产的影响。气候变化背景下,我国水稻生长季的热量资源增多,辐射资源减少,降水不均一性加大。高温热害、干旱、暴雨和洪涝灾害发生更频繁,这可能降低水、热资源的有效性。气候变化使我国单季稻和双季稻潜在种植边界显著北移,导致单季稻、早稻和晚稻的主要生育期缩短。基于统计模型和水稻生长模型的研究结果表明,如果不考虑品种改良和栽培技术的进步,气候变化使单季稻、早稻和晚稻产量下降,但不同稻作区和方法间存在差异。我国水稻生产重心北移、实测生育期延长和产量增加的变化趋势,反映了水稻生产系统通过种植分布调整、品种改良和技术改进来适应气候变化的能力。未来气候变化将进一步导致水稻生育期缩短和产量下降,对我国水稻生产和粮食安全带来严峻挑战。仍需加强气候变化影响机制的研究及其在影响评估中的应用,减小影响评估的不确定性并增加其系统性,为制定有效的应对策略提供可靠的理论支持。  相似文献   

20.
Atmospheric CO2 levels on Earth have risen steeply over the last 60 years and will continue to do so in future. CO2 traps heat from earth's surface, which causes an increase in temperature and leads to other climatic changes. Crop plants are currently challenged by climate change. In general, elevated CO2 increases photosynthetic rates, plant growth and the ability of plants to counteract stress. However, the effect of eCO2 on respiration is not apparent. Plants growing at eCO2 probably do not have sufficient respiratory ATP to drive cellular processes like nutrient uptake and transport, which impairs their nutritional quality. Here, we review how eCO2 modulates growth and nutritional value of crop plants, emphasizing the contribution of photosynthesis and respiration. We highlight the mechanisms that modulate acclimation and adaptive responses of plants to eCO2 and also discuss the ecological consequences. Finally, we project sorghum as a model for an eCO2 ready crop.  相似文献   

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