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基于MaxEnt模型的紫椿适生区预测 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
气候变化通过改变物种的生境进而影响生物多样性。紫椿是一种具有高生态、经济、药用价值的用材树种,在我国与其他香椿属物种一起被称为“中国桃花心木”。了解该物种对生境要求、评价其生境质量、预测其适生区分布有助于紫椿的保护、引种及其人工林的发展。MaxEnt模型的优点在于能利用现存不完整、小样本、离散型分布数据构建物种适生区预测模型,且用受试者工作曲线下面积(AUC)检验预测模型的精度,面积越大精度越高。研究应用紫椿在云南分布数据及MaxEnt软件构建其适生区分布模型,结果表明:适生区分布模型平均训练AUC和平均测试AUC分别为0.959和0.818,说明对紫椿适生区的预测是可靠的;温度季节性变化的标准差、最冷月最低温(℃)、最干季度平均温度(℃)、最冷季度降水量(mm)、年均温变化范围是决定紫椿适生区分布的重要因素。对当代和未来(21世纪50年代,21世纪70年代)气候变暖条件下(RCP2.6情景)的紫椿在云南省和全国适生区面积进行了计算,结果直观、定量反映了气候变化下紫椿适生区的变迁,预测云南省及全国的紫椿适生区随全球变暖而萎缩。 相似文献
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PAN Song PENG De-liang LI Ying-mei CHEN Zhi-jie ZHAI Ying-yan LIU Chen HONG Bo 《农业科学学报》2023,22(7):2138-2150
In recent years, Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas. However, the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear. Under the current climate scenario, we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M. enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) model with the occurrence data of this species. Furthermore, the potenti... 相似文献
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Global climate warming has been exerting impacts on agricultural pests. Pests also take some strategies to adapt to climate change. Understanding such adaptation could benefit more accurate predictions and integrated management of pest. However, adaptation to climate change has not been widely investigated in agricultural pests but has been well documented in model species, Drosophila, and reviewed by Hoffmann before 2003. To provide recent progress and references for agricultural entomologists who interested in thermal biology, here we have reviewed literatures since 2003 about adaptation to temperature changes under climate change. We mainly summarized thermal adaptation of Drosophila (especially to high temperatures) from three aspects, behaviors, plastic responses and micro-evolution and discussed how Drosophila increases their heat tolerance through these three mechanisms. Finally, we summarized the measures of thermotolerance and concluded the main progress in recent decade about the behavioral thermoregulation, mortality risks driven by limited evolutionary and plastic response under climate change, geographic distribution based on basal rather than plastic thermotolerance. We propose future work focus on better understanding adaptation of organisms including agricultural pests to climate change. 相似文献
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ZHANG Gui-fen MA De-ying WANG Yu-sheng GAO You-hua LIU Wan-xue ZHANG Rong FU Wen-jun XIAN Xiao-qing WANG Jun KUANG Meng WAN Fang-hao 《农业科学学报》2020,19(7):1912-1917
Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) originated in South America and is one of the most serious pests of tomatoes. It is also known to attack other solanaceous crops, including potato, eggplant, pepper, tobacco, and weedy species such as black nightshade. After accidental introduction into Spain in 2006, this pest spread rapidly throughout Afro-Eurasia and has become a major threat to tomato production worldwide. Here, we report the first record of T. absoluta as an invasive pest in China. It was found in tomato fields in Ili Kazakg Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Ili, Xinjiang), China, and its occurrence was confirmed by both morphological and molecular approaches. In Ili, T. absoluta has been found to attack eggplant, potato, and black nightshade. We found the larvae generally mining and feeding on leaves and boring into tomato fruits, with multiple larvae sometimes observed in a single fruit. Its infestation levels differ among the tomato fields and host species. In all of the surveyed tomato fields, T. absoluta infested 100% of plants. In some of the fields, up to 90% of the eggplant and 100% of the potato plants were infested. Since no natural enemies were found under field conditions, suitable management practices are urgently needed to stop the further spread of this destructive pest in China. 相似文献
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Potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans: From molecular interactions to integrated management strategies 
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下载免费PDF全文 Over 170 years after the infamous Irish Potato Famine, potato late blight (PLB) caused by Phytophthora infestans remains the single most devastating disease of global potato production, causing up to 10 billion USD in yield loss and management costs. Through decades of research, growers and agronomists in the field as well as laboratory scientists have made significant progress in understanding the molecular pathogenesis process of this critical pathosystem and effective management strategies to control PLB. Yet, the need to feed an ever-increasing global population under changing climate demands continued improvement in efficient and sustainable PLB management schemes that can be implemented across a broad economic spectrum. In this review, we briefly summarize the current understanding of the molecular interaction between P. infestans and its host plants, highlight the current integrated pest management strategy to control PLB on local and continental scales, and discuss the potential of further improvement of sustainable PLB control through genetic enhancement of crop resistance and emerging crop protection technologies. 相似文献
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研究气候变化背景下云南榧树适生区分布,有助于理解该物种分布区的变迁历史和未来保护策略的制定。基于45个有效地理分布点以及19个环境气候变量,利用Maxent模型与ArcGIS对不同时期云南榧树的适生区进行模拟,其ROC特征曲线下的面积接近于1,MaxEnt模型的预测准确度高,可用于预测云南榧树适生区。结果表明,刀切法Jackknife和气候累计贡献率显示,影响云南榧树分布的主导环境变量为最暖季度降水量(bio18)和最冷月份最低温(bio6)。自末次盛冰期至全新世中期再到当前,云南榧树种群质心迁移路线为高黎贡山—丽江—维西,面积变化呈先增加再减少的趋势,当前我国云南榧树主要分布于云南、四川和西藏等地区,预测2070年在4种不同碳排放模式下,云南榧树适生区均发生不同程度的北移,且碳排放越高北移程度越明显。随着历史时间的推移,云南榧树适生区呈向北迁移的趋势,在未来全球气候变暖的情景下,云南榧树的分布面积不会减少,四川极可能成为云南榧树新的分布区。 相似文献
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中国是世界上农作物病虫害发生最严重的国家之一,常年发生1700余种。近年来,受全球气候变化、经济一体化和农业产业结构调整等诸多因素的影响,中国农作物病虫害问题趋于严重。化学农药是目前中国防治农作物病虫害的最主要手段,农药的大量使用在控制有害生物的同时,也带来了农药残留超标、环境污染、害虫抗药性与再猖獗等一系列问题。因此,发展绿色防控科技,大幅度降低化学农药的用量是中国植物保护科研工作的核心任务,其重点发展方向包括：产业结构调整、全球经济一体化和气候变化等因素对重大病虫害种群演替规律的影响,基于现代生物技术、信息技术、新材料与先进制造的植保新理论、新方法与新产品,绿色防治关键技术与产品,化学农药精准施药和残留检测追溯技术,智能化植物保护装备,以及区域性病虫害绿色可持续控制模式等。 相似文献
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随着马铃薯甲虫不断扩展其分布范围,其对寄主的适应性也在发生变化.在我国,马铃薯甲虫的主要寄主植物是马铃薯、茄子、番茄和天仙子.为进一步明确马铃薯甲虫对不同寄主植物的嗜食程度,研究了以上4种寄主植物对马铃薯甲虫的引诱作用,以及取食量的影响,同时进行了田间寄主选择性的调查.选择性试验结果表明:不同寄主植物对马铃薯甲虫的引诱作用差异显著,其中马铃薯、天仙子引诱作用显著高于茄子和番茄;取食量研究结果表明:马铃薯甲虫各龄期对不同寄主24 h取食量的大小依次为:马铃薯＞茄子＞天仙子＞番茄;1-2龄幼虫取食量小,3-4龄幼虫及成虫暴食寄主叶片,是马铃薯甲虫造成危害的主要阶段. 相似文献
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为研究中国西南地区寒温性针叶林地理分布对气候变化的响应,以西南地区20种寒温性针叶林主要乔木树种地理分布数据为依据,通过最大熵（MaxEnt）模型和地理信息系统,结合气候、地形、土壤等环境因子,预测各乔木树种在未来（2070年）气候变化下的潜在适生区动态并分析潜在分布区的环境特征,旨在为气候变化下寒温性针叶林资源保护及可持续经营提供理论参考。结果表明,1）20个树种的地理分布模型的AUC值均>0.85,表明模型预测精度较高。2）2070年BCC-CSM2-MR模式SSPs126和SSPs245情景下,20种寒温性针叶林适生区整体呈现向高纬度、高海拔迁移的趋势;其中,苍山冷杉、冷杉、长苞冷杉、急尖长苞冷杉、鳞皮冷杉、大果红杉、云杉、丽江云杉、川西云杉、西藏云杉和青杄的潜在适生分布区均呈现扩张趋势,锡金冷杉、巴山冷杉、岷江冷杉、祁连圆柏、大果圆柏、麦吊云杉、青海云杉和紫果云杉的潜在适生区呈现缩小趋势,而川滇冷杉潜在适生区变化最小。3）寒温性针叶林地理分布的6个主导环境影响因子及范围依次为:海拔（1 283~4 800 m）>降水量（389~1 623 mm）>气温的季节性（446~1 073）>坡度（2°~34°）>等温性（30~52）>最冷月最低气温（-20~3 ℃）。 相似文献
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Development of a high-efficiency sex pheromone formula to control Euproctis pseudoconspersa 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 LI Zhao-qun YUAN Ting-ting CUI Shao-wei ZHAO Ying-jie SHAO Yuan-hai SHANG Jian-nong LUO Zong-xiu CAI Xiao-ming BIAN Lei CHEN Zong-mao 《农业科学学报》2023,22(1):195-201
The tea tussock moth (Euproctis pseudoconspersa) is one of the most destructive chewing pests in tea plantations and causes a serious allergic reaction on the skin of tea plantation workers. The sex pheromone components of its Japanese population were first identified as 10,14-dimethylpentadecyl isobutyrate (10Me14Me-15:iBu) and 14-methylpentadecyl isobutyrate (14Me-15:iBu), with a stereogenic center. Only 10Me14Me-15:iBu has been identified in the Chinese E. pseudoconspersa population. However, field tests have shown that 10Me14Me-15:iBu cannot meet the demand of effective pest control in China. To develop a high-efficiency E. pseudoconspersa sex pheromone formula, electroantennogram (EAG) recordings of (S)- and (R)-enantiomers of 10Me14Me-15:iBu and 14Me-15:iBu were obtained in the present study. The results demonstrated that the EAG responses of male antennae to (R)-enantiomers were significantly higher than responses to the (S)-enantiomers, and 14Me-15:iBu also elicited EAG activity. Field tests showed that the catch numbers of male moths by (R)-enantiomers were significantly higher (P<0.05) than those of (S)-enantiomers. Addition of 14Me-15:iBu significantly increased the catch numbers of both the (S)- and (R)-enantiomers. The efficient pheromone formula containing 0.75 mg (R)-10Me14Me-15:iBu and 0.1 mg 14Me-15:iBu showed significantly higher attractiveness than commercial pheromone products. Our study demonstrated that (R)-10Me14Me-15:iBu was the major sex pheromone component of E. pseudoconspersa, and 14Me-15:iBu might be the minor sex pheromone component. Furthermore, a high-efficiency sex pheromone formula for E. pseudoconspersa control was defined in this study. 相似文献
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针对花榈木的种质资源保护利用问题,基于花榈木在中国的188条地理分布记录和9个气候变量,于 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5 3种气候情景模式下,利用ENMeval数据包优化后的MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS对其当前和未来(2050s和2070s)的生态位进行模拟,研究影响花榈木地理分布的主导环境因子,分析其在不同气候情景模式下的空间分布格局和迁移趋势。结果表明,当模型的特征组合（FC）为线性、二次型、片段化、乘积型和阈值性,正则化乘数(RM)为2时,模型复杂度和过拟合程度较低,此时训练集的平均AUC和平均标准偏差分别为0.954和0.004,表明模型预测精度很高。花榈木在当前气候下的潜在分布区主要在我国东南部,核心分布区位于江西、湖南、福建、浙江等省份及其周边区域。刀切法(Jackknife)表明最干季度降水量、最湿季度降水量、最冷季度平均温度是影响其分布的主导气候因子。未来3种气候情景下花榈木总体适生区分布相对稳定,核心适生区主要表现为东西向稳定,于南北向中部迁移,尤以广东中部及江西中部收缩显著,这些迁移的核心适生区是花榈木应对气候变化的敏感区域,需引起重视。 相似文献
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东北地区是我国沼泽湿地分布最广泛的地区。为研究沼泽湿地对气候变化的响应,选取了对沼泽湿地分布可能存在影响的26个环境因子,利用最大熵(Maximum Entropy, MaxEnt)模型模拟了沼泽湿地基准气候条件下的潜在分布,并预测了气候变化情景下2011-2040 年、2041-2070 年和2071-2100 年3个研究阶段东北沼泽湿地潜在分布。研究结果表明:最大熵模型预测精度较高(平均AUC(Aera Under Curve)为(0.826±0.005))。基准气候条件下东北沼泽潜在分布区主要为大小兴安岭和三江平原地区。随着时间的推进,东北地区沼泽湿地原有潜在分布面积明显减少,而新增潜在分布面积较少,总面积呈现急剧减少趋势。至2071-2100年,原有沼泽湿地潜在分布面积将减少99.80%,新增潜在分布面积仅2.48%,总潜在分布面积减少97.32%。空间分布上,东北沼泽湿地潜在分布呈现由东向西迁移,南北向中心收缩的趋势。研究结果可为东北地区沼泽湿地保护政策的制定提供参考。 相似文献
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运用生态位模型软件Max Ent,模拟和预测气候变化背景下大尺度范围西藏飞蝗适生区分布及其变化可能性。基于当前数据和IPCC AR5提出的三种气候情景以及西藏飞蝗分布信息,采用Max Ent生态位模型和Arc GIS预测西藏飞蝗适生区及未来变化趋势,用ROC曲线检测模型精度、刀切法(Jackknife test)筛选主导环境变量。当前气候条件下,西藏飞蝗高适生区主要位于四川省和西藏自治区,中风险区则主要集中在青藏高原东部地区,包括四川西部、西藏东部、云南北部等。西藏飞蝗适生区分布、面积及中心点位置不同。Max Ent模型对未来气候变化条件下西藏飞蝗适生区准确模拟与预测具有潜在应用价值,对虫害综合治理具有重要指导意义。 相似文献
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为了分析入侵种黄顶菊[Flaveria bidentis (L.) Kuntze.]在中国的潜在适生分布区,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)与ArcGIS软件预测了黄顶菊在当前及未来气候条件下在中国的潜在适生分布区。结果表明：在当前气候条件下,黄顶菊主要分布在河北省大部分地区、北京市南部、河南省北部以及天津市的西部地区;未来气候条件下,黄顶菊的适生分布范围将进一步扩大,在2060年前后,高适生区的面积将增长到14.73万km 2,增长率达121.49%,主要分布在河北省及周边地区、陕西省西安市及周边城市。运用刀切法(Jackknife)计算各个环境变量对物种分布的影响,最冷月最低温度、最冷季平均温度、年平均气温、最干季平均温度、海拔、温度季节性变化标准差、最湿季度平均温度和最暖季平均温度8个环境变量是影响黄顶菊分布的主要因素。模型的AUC值为0.987,表明模型的准确度非常高。未来气候变化情景下黄顶菊的分布范围将进一步扩大,建议相关部门对此密切关注,并尽早采取防护措施。 相似文献
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XU Jin ZHU JieHua YANG YanLi TANG Hao Lü HePing FAN MingShou SHI Ying DONG DaoFeng WANG GuiJiang WANG WanXing XIONG XingYao GAO YuLin 《中国农业科学》2019,52(16):2800-2808
As the fourth important staple crop just after rice, maize and wheat, potato plays a crucial role in food security, poverty alleviation, cropping structure adjustment and transformation and updating of agriculture in China. The total harvested area and production of potato in China rank first in the world. However, the yield is much lower than the average level of the world due to a variety of diseases and insect pests of potato. With the support of National Key Research and Development Program of China, the major diseases and insect pests as well as pesticide use in potato production were surveyed in the six main production areas. Twenty-seven major potato pests were found in China. Six diseases (i.e. late blight, early blight, black scurf, Fusarium wilt, potato black leg and potato common scab) and six insect pests (i.e. wireworms, chafer grubs, aphids, twenty-eight spot lady beetle, potato tuber moth and thrips) were proposed to be listed as the most important management target in all the production areas. Moreover, more attention should be paid to prevent and control of bacterial wilt, ring rot and powdery scab. On the basis of census data, the average number of pesticide application and usage per unit area of potato in China were 17 and 40.03 kg·hm -2, which were higher than the national average level of 4.16 and 3.49 kg·hm -2. The control target of current registered pesticides did not cover many increasingly severe potato pests, such as bacterial wilt, common scab, powdery scab, and so on. Adoption and spread of integrated pest management (IPM) were proposed to be the most important strategy for reducing pesticide use and costs in potato production. To make scientific pest-management and pesticide reduction strategy, a potato pest early warning system should be developed based on rapid, sensitive and reliable detection and monitoring method. As host plant resistance is the economically feasible options for pests managing, it is important to improve potato resistant variety breeding and application, optimize variety layout. Development and promotion of high-efficient pesticide application technology and environmentally friendly alternatives to chemicals are the core drivers to realize chemical pesticide reduction. 相似文献
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中国马铃薯病虫害发生情况与农药使用现状 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4
作为继水稻、玉米和小麦之后的第四大主粮作物,马铃薯在保障我国粮食安全、精准扶贫、种植业结构调整以及农业产业转型升级中发挥着至关重要的作用。我国马铃薯的种植面积和总产量均位居世界首位,但单产水平因病虫害等瓶颈因素的制约低于世界平均水平。在国家重点研发项目的资助下,项目组在马铃薯六大优势产区开展了有害生物疫情监测和农药使用现状普查工作。明确了我国马铃薯生产上的主要病虫害共计27种,提出以晚疫病、早疫病、黑痣病、枯萎病、黑胫病、疮痂病、金针虫、蛴螬、二十八星瓢虫、马铃薯块茎蛾、蚜虫、蓟马等“六病六虫”为重点防控对象,根据各区域情况兼顾青枯病、环腐病、黄萎病、粉痂病等病虫害的防控。探明了我国马铃薯单位面积农药施用次数和施用量分别为17次和40.03 kg·hm -2,高于全国平均水平的4.16次和3.49 kg·hm -2。马铃薯现有农药登记产品防治对象的覆盖范围严重不足,青枯病、疮痂病、粉痂病等重要病虫害面临无登记农药可用的窘境。在农药减施策略方面,提出践行有害生物综合治理方针。建立马铃薯病虫害监测预警和早期精确诊断技术体系,为制定科学防控策略,适时精准施药奠定基础。选育推广抗病、虫品种,优化品种布局。适时播种、合理间套作,从时空两个维度阻隔规避马铃薯有害生物的侵染。种薯源头管控,完善种薯认证监管体系。扩大合格脱毒种薯的应用面积,大力推广种薯处理技术。研发推广化学农药高效施用技术与绿色防控替代技术是实现马铃薯化学农药减施的核心驱动。 相似文献
20.
基于茶角胸叶甲(Basilepta melanopus Lefèvre)截至2020年底的63个有效分布点和22个环境变量，分析筛选出影响茶角胸叶甲分布的8个重要环境变量，利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件，对茶角胸叶甲2021—2100年气候条件下的适生区进行预测。结果表明：MaxEnt模型的受试者工作曲线面积(AUC)达0.992；在目前气候条件下，茶角胸叶甲潜在的适生区总面积为6.69×105 km2，主要位于中国南部和东南部地区，除已报道发生过的地区外，还包括湖北、安徽、浙江、江苏和台湾；影响茶角胸叶甲潜在适生区分布的重要环境因子主要包括最冷季降水量、坡向和平均气温年较差，其中最冷季降水量是影响茶角胸叶甲潜在适生区分布范围的最关键环境变量；在SSP126和SSP245情景下，茶角胸叶甲的总适生区面积在2061—2080年间达到峰值后下降；在SSP370情景下，茶角胸叶甲的总适生区面积在2041—2060年间达到峰值后下降；在SSP585情景下，茶角胸叶甲总适生区面积持续上升。总体来看，茶角胸叶甲的适生区中心主要向西、向北和高纬度等内陆地区转移。 相似文献