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1.
The purpose of this case-control study nested in the Agricultural Health Study was to assess risk factors for agricultural injury among a large group of Iowa farmers. A questionnaire sent to 6,999 farmers identified 431 cases who had a farm work-related injury requiring medical advice/treatment in the previous year and 473 controls who had no injury in the previous year. We assessed several potential risk factors for injury. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed significant associations between farm work-related injury and weekly farming work hours (> or = 50 hours/week) (OR = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.23-2.21), the presence of large livestock (OR = 1.77; 95% CI = 1.24-2.51), education beyond high school (OR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.21-2.12), regular medication use (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.04-1.96), wearing a hearing aid (OR = 2.36; 95% CI = 1.07-5.20), and younger age. These results confirm the importance of risk factors identified in previous analytic studies and suggest directions for future research in preventive intervention strategies to reduce farm work-related injuries.  相似文献   

2.
Since induction of the AgrAbility program through appropriations contained in the 1990 Farm Bill, the national and state/regional AgrAbility projects have used a variety of methods to disseminate information about assistive technology (AT) to farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural workers with disabilities. To date, no known research has been conducted to assess those delivery methods from the perspectives of either the persons with disabilities in need of information or the education and rehabilitation professionals who work with them. This study's purpose was two-fold: (1) review various dissemination strategies to identify those documented as being more effective, and (2) conduct surveys to ascertain the perspectives of AgrAbility project professionals and a national network of farmers and ranchers with disabilities (called the Barn Builders). Key findings of the study were as follows: (1) the farmers and ranchers most preferred receiving information via printed newsletters (71%) and printed publications (67%); (2) AgrAbility staff most preferred receiving information via internet-based publication access (61%), e-mail (60%), and printed publications (58%); (3) many farmers and ranchers perceived that dissemination strategies were moving toward the internet (53%) and that AT information was generally more available now than in the past (38%); (4) both AgrAbility staff and the Barn Builders tended to agree that farmers still wanted to receive information in printed form; and (5) neither age nor education level appeared to be a strong predictor of internet use by farmers. Key recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of current AT information delivery methods included: (1) implementing effective document management strategies for all information resources, especially for online content; and (2) minimizing language translation efforts, since such a small percentage of the AgrAbility project customer base is primarily non-English speaking. It is believed that the findings of this study also have implications for service delivery strategies in other areas, including topics relating to agricultural safety and health.  相似文献   

3.
For over 30 years, Purdue University has maintained a national database of agriculture-related entrapment cases that have occurred in loose agricultural material. At present, 391 documented fatal and non-fatal entrapments from the U.S. and Canada make up the Purdue University Agricultural Entrapment Database. In order to specifically study fatal cases of entrapments in grain bins located on farms, the database was reviewed, 181 cases were identified using specific criteria, and the results were summarized. Approximately five cases per year were identified between 1966 and 1998, representing 18 states and one Canadian province. Entrapments were generally reported more often in the top corn-producing states and during the months of November, December, January, March, and June. In 24% of the cases in which the victim's age was known, the victims were younger than 16. Children and adolescents younger than 16 were more often fatally entrapped in June than in any other month. For cases in which the product was known, corn was the agent of injury in 53% of the cases and was frequently found to be out-of-condition. At the time of entrapment, victims were involved with bin unloading activities in 76% of the cases in which the activity was identified. These findings are being used to design new injury prevention strategies, including educational materials and recommendations for engineering controls that focus on primary causative factors.  相似文献   

4.
利用GGE双标图和综合选择指数划分棉花品种生态区   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
为提高农作物品种多性状选育和应用的可靠性,本研究基于品种选择指数,应用GGE双标图进行了棉花品种生态区划分。首先依据国家棉花品种审定标准构建通用性强的品种选择指数(SI),即SI=0.40×皮棉产量+0.13×纤维比强度+0.09×(纤维长度+马克隆值)+0.11×枯萎病+0.09×黄萎病+0.10×霜前花率。然后,采用GGE双标图方法对2000—2013年期间39组(含585个单点试验)长江流域国家棉花区域试验中品种选择指数的基因型与环境互作效应及环境间关系进行综合评价与分析。研究结果将长江流域棉区划分为四川盆地生态区、南襄盆地生态区、浙江省沿海生态区和长江中下游生态区。其中,长江中下游生态区为长江流域的主要品种生态区,对长江流域的总体环境代表性最强,涵盖了湖南省环洞庭湖棉区、湖北省江汉平原和鄂东南岗地棉区、江西省环鄱阳湖棉区、安徽省沿江棉区、江苏省宁镇丘陵及沿江和沿海棉区;四川盆地生态区、南襄盆地生态区和浙江省沿海生态区均为特殊生态环境条件下的品种生态区,对总体环境代表性较差。因此,将以长江流域棉区为广谱适应性育种目标环境的棉花品种综合性状选择试验优先安排在长江中下游生态区中,有利于提高育种的总体选择效果,而其余品种生态区不适宜作为以长江流域为目标环境的品种综合性状选择环境,可侧重于特殊适应性品种选育。本研究充分展示了GGE双标图在品种生态区划分方面的应用效果,合理划分了长江流域基于选择指数的棉花品种生态区,可为长江流域棉区的品种多性状选择和推荐策略提供决策依据,也为其他棉区和作物品种生态区划分提供参考。  相似文献   

5.
Habitat destruction is one of the main threats to environmental integrity. Assessing the consequences of human impacts is crucial both to predict and prevent structural and functional changes of habitats. However, to date almost all studies on marine threats, from regional to global scales, have been entirely qualitative and generally based on little more than expert opinion. We have developed a meta-analytical approach to quantify overall effects of various stressors on different Mediterranean habitat types and to compare the relative importance of different impacts across a range of habitats. We first qualitatively reviewed and synthesized 366 experiments (either manipulative or correlative) collected in the literature. After a selection procedure, we finally quantitatively meta-analyzed 158 experiments. We showed that fisheries (destructive or not), species invasion, aquaculture, sedimentation increase, water degradation and urbanization have negative effects on Mediterranean habitats and associated species assemblages. We also explored the overlap between the impacts identified as important in the Mediterranean and those identified by experts as being important globally, highlighting the inadequacies of relying on expert opinion alone. Finally, we drew attention to the critical lack of empirical knowledge about marine systems in many areas of the Mediterranean, which impedes the implementation of effective conservation measures. Our study is the first to synthesize experimental analyses on human-driven impacts on marine habitats across such a broad geographic scale.  相似文献   

6.
CERES-Wheat作物模型参数全局敏感性分析   总被引：14，自引：4，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文
作物生长模型广泛应用于区域作物估产研究与应用之中,如何选择最佳作物模型优化参数是获得较好模拟预测结果的关键之一。研究选择河南洛阳为试验区,应用扩展傅里叶振幅灵敏度检验（EFAST）法对CERES-Wheat模型作物参数及田间管理参数进行了全局敏感性分析。结果表明,完成一片叶生长所需积温、最适温度条件下通过春化阶段所需天数、光周期参数、最佳条件下标准籽粒质量参数、开花期单位株冠质量的籽粒数参数等指标具有较高敏感性,系为模型参数“本地化”的关键参数。播种日期、播种密度、施肥日期、播种深度、灌溉日期是模型区域化应用的最佳优化变量。研究表明,EFAST敏感性分析是模型参数“本地化”和选择最佳“区域化”优化变量的有效方法。  相似文献   

7.
Many species of conservation concern are in decline due to threats from multiple sources. To quantify the conservation requirements of these species we need robust estimates of the impact of each threat on the rate of population decline. However, for the vast majority of species this information is lacking. Here we demonstrate the application of integrated population modelling as a means of deriving robust estimates of the impact of multiple threats for a rapidly declining koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in South-east Queensland, Australia. Integrated population modelling provides a basis for reducing uncertainty and bias by formally integrating information from multiple data sources into a single model. We quantify mortality rates due to threats from dog attacks, vehicle collisions and disease and the extent to which each of these mortality rates would need to be reduced, or how much habitat would need to be restored, to stop the population declining. We show that the integrated population modelling approach substantially reduces uncertainty. We also show that recovery actions that only address single threats would need to reduce those threats to implausibly low levels to recover the population. This indicates that strategies for simultaneously tackling multiple threats are necessary; a situation that is likely to be true for many of the world’s threatened species. This study provides an important framework for quantifying the conservation requirements of species undergoing declines due to multiple threats.  相似文献   

8.
Agriculture in the Sudano-Sahelian zone is heavily dependent on the seasonal characteristics of rainfall. This study seeks to characterise components of regional climatic variability and their impact on simulated, attainable, plot level yields of millet. First we describe at a regional scale two main events in the seasonal pattern of the monsoon over West Africa by using a daily rainfall dataset over the 1968–1990 period, that is, (i) the onset of the summer monsoon characterised by an abrupt northward shift of the ITCZ from 5°N to 10°N around 24 June, and (ii) large and coherent intra-seasonal rainfall fluctuations at two different time scales, around 15 and 40 days. Second, we investigate the impact of these regional phenomena on local crop yields using SARRAH, a crop model simulating attainable yield, i.e. water and climate limited but not nutrient limited yield, by means of sensitivity analyses. The response of attainable yield to sowing date is studied for 19 years of the 1968–1990 period for a 90-day millet crop at Niamey. The results indicate that information on regional climate dynamics might help improve crop production locally. It is shown that the regional onset of the monsoon is very close to the ideal sowing date, derived from simulations, at Niamey and that simulated yields are much higher for these dates than for those identified with the traditional rule based on local rainfall. Taking into account the regional onset of monsoon thus seems to improve the relationship between water available and water used by the plant, and thus seems to potentially increase crop water use. Where attainable, simulated yields using the monsoon onset criterion are low, they are generally caused by intra-seasonal dry spells that have differential impact depending on phenological stage of the crop.  相似文献   

9.
耕地的集中连片和空间连通对农业现代化发展至关重要。该研究基于“像元—邻域—连片”三级尺度嵌套视角,综合考虑耕地面积、形状、结构和连通性等特征,构建耕地集聚度和连通性特征测算体系,探究了2000—2020年江苏省耕地格局时空演化规律和分类优化策略。研究结果表明：1）江苏省耕地集聚度从中部向北部和南部递减,98.94%的县域以不同程度下降。2）江苏省耕地连通性从中部至北部形成以宝应县和宿豫区为中心的连通性优势带,南部区域则有所下降。3）根据耕地集聚度和连通性的现状和变化趋势,可将江苏省划分为6个类型区,并提出相应的耕地利用和改善策略。该研究为综合测算耕地的集聚度和连通性特征提出了新的研究视角,明确了耕地优化管理的策略,对于指导区域耕地保护与高效利用、推动农业现代化具有参考价值。  相似文献   

10.
Early drilling of autumn‐planted cereals is strongly advised in UK government publications targeted at farmers, in part as a measure to combat soil erosion by water. However, in years when rainfall is heavy in early autumn, this strategy is ineffective. Late drilling of autumn‐planted cereals also increases the risk of erosion, but for a different reason: crop cover develops more slowly in cooler weather, resulting in a longer exposure of nearly bare ground. The crucial factor affecting both strategies is the timing of autumn and early winter rainfall. We discuss a conceptual model based on the notion of a ‘window of opportunity’ for erosion, comprising the relationship between drilling date, date of attainment of a sufficiently protective crop cover and the timing of rainfall; variations are presented for different weather conditions and management choices. Of these three factors, only the date of drilling can be chosen by the farmer. The date of attaining a sufficiently protective crop cover can only be predicted approximately. The timing of rainfall cannot be predicted. Thus, erosion control advice to farmers, which is based on choice of date of drilling to minimize erosion during the ‘window of opportunity’, is both difficult to formulate and likely to be ineffective. Sites at risk of erosion need to have better thought‐out mitigation measures in place, rather than relying on a fortuitous temporal pattern of autumn and winter rainfall to minimize the risk of erosion.  相似文献   

11.
根据农业部在80年代两次组织评选出的全国24个优质梨产地的生态资料,用微型电子计算机系统和汉字dBASE III 建立数据库，统计出我国优势梨的品种构成比例，产地分布区域及其适宜的生态指标，并分析了这些优质梨主栽品种的生态适应性能，为我国今后大力推广优质梨品种，实现良种区域化栽培提供科学依据。  相似文献   

12.
Evidence from the attempt to preserve wading birds in Everglades National Park suggests that application of biogeographic theory to design and management of continental wildlife reserves requires considerations additional to those previously proposed. Shape and areal extent alone are inadequate criteria for reserve design. Unlike islands, continental reserves are not necessarily self-contained ecosystems driven by endogenous processes. The isolation of a continental reserve may lead to a phenomenon of ecosystem degeneration, the extent and rapidity of which depends on the ecological condition of adjacent habitat. Management strategies to preserve maximum species richness are seldom totally acceptable and often inherently unattainable. Conflicts between species management and ecosystem management illustrate the need for instituting an array of management strategies on a regional basis for preservation of both endangered species and ecosystems.  相似文献   

13.
In order to face the large and worrying biodiversity decline in agricultural landscapes, important policy instruments like agri-environmental schemes (AES) have been implemented. Studies that have examined the ecological effects of AES are now numerous and generally use indicators of biodiversity such as species richness and diversity as well as species abundance. Yet, it has been shown that simple metrics such as species richness or abundance may give misleading messages about biodiversity status and fate. Moreover, those indicators cannot detect another important source of biodiversity loss, biotic homogenisation. In this context, taking into account to a wider extent ecological difference among species would be more relevant, as well as focusing on the species specialisation which is known to be linked to higher species vulnerability. A bibliographic review investigating the criteria generally used to assess the success of AES showed that 55% of studies used species richness and/or abundance exclusively without any consideration of specialisation or other ecological traits in their evaluation of AES effectiveness. Based on data from the French breeding bird survey and studies at regional scale in France on farmland birds, we show that: (i) species richness and specialisation are generally negatively correlated in agricultural areas, (ii) habitat heterogeneity does not benefit specialist species, and (iii) monitoring of species diversity should be coupled with the monitoring of specialist species to improve conservation strategies in farming systems. Overall, this study emphasizes the need to account for both community richness and composition when assessing AES or similar conservation planning.  相似文献   

14.
Numerous globally abundant species are exposed to human impacts that threaten the viability of regional populations. Assessing and characterising the risks faced by these populations can have significant implications for biodiversity conservation, given the ecological importance of many such species. To address these risks, the IUCN is starting to conduct assessments of regional populations in addition to species-level assessments of conservation status. Here, we demonstrate a threat assessment process that is robust to uncertainty, applying the IUCN criteria to a regional population of bottlenose dolphins in Fiordland, New Zealand. We compiled available population-specific information to assess the population under the five Red List criteria. We estimated there were 205 Fiordland bottlenose dolphins (CV = 3.5%), using current estimates of abundance for two sub-populations and stochastic modelling of an earlier estimate for the third sub-population. Population trajectory and extinction risk were assessed using stochastic age-structured Leslie matrix population models. The majority of model runs met the criteria for classification as critically endangered (C1: 67.6% of runs) given the number of mature individuals (123; CV = 6.7%) and the predicted rate of population decline (average decline: 31.4% over one generation). The evidence of isolation of the population confirms this was an appropriate regional classification. This approach provided an assessment that was robust to uncertainty.  相似文献   

15.
National conservation planning should operate with measures of biodiversity similar to those applied globally in order to harmonize national and international conservation strategies. Here we suggest quantitative measures which enable two criteria of the global biodiversity hotspots to be applied on a national level for 74 large countries, and show how these measures can be applied to map national biodiversity hotspots. The plant endemism criteria of global hotspots are captured by quantitative measures of endemism, which are approximately scale-independent and can be corrected to account for a country’s environmental conditions and conservation priorities. The flexible land use criteria for national biodiversity hotspots are defined from percentage of natural vegetation remaining in the global hotspots. The minimum-area-required approach is applied to define the borders of national biodiversity hotspots using data on vascular plants species richness. We show how national biodiversity hotspots can be mapped from the species-energy relationship for vascular plants using climate, topographical and land use data when spatial pattern of species richness is not known. This methodology to map national biodiversity hotspots from abiotic factors is applied to Russia as a case study. Three Russian biodiversity hotspots, North Caucasus, South Siberia and Far East were identified. The resulting hotspot maps cover national-scale environmental gradients across Russia and although they are also identified by Russian experts their actual geographical locations were hitherto unspecified. The large-scale national hotspots, identified for Russia, can be used for further fine scale and more detailed conservation planning.  相似文献   

16.
Conservation strategies have three elements: species protection, site protection and, the most challenging component, conservation in the wider environment. Watson and Whitfield [Watson, J., Whitfield, P., 2002. A conservation framework for the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos in Scotland. Journal of Raptor Research 36(1 Suppl.), 41-49.] proposed a conservation framework for the golden eagle in Scotland whose main innovation, taking a lead from EU conservation Directives, was to incorporate the concept of favourable condition and its maintenance by implementing conservation policies that are regionally targeted at known constraints in the wider environment. Three criteria were suggested to judge favourable condition: a national abundance target of breeding pairs, national and regional targets for breeding productivity, and regional targets for the extent of suitable habitat which is occupied by breeding pairs. Here we refine these criteria, first to take the national abundance target and use it to set regional targets. Distribution targets were implicitly incorporated by this process because abundance targets were set regionally, with regard to the proportion of known territories which should be occupied. This allowed us to dispense with the distribution criterion as originally proposed. Our next refinement was to base regional demographic targets not only on breeding productivity, but also on indirect measures of survival (which are likely to have more influence on population dynamics). Despite apparent overall population stability over the last 20 years, the national golden eagle population failed to meet the abundance target and only 3 of 16 regions where eagles have occupied territories since 1982 were considered to be in favourable condition. The key constraint preventing favourable condition being met was persecution, predominantly in some areas managed for grouse shooting. The advantages of a conservation framework over similar approaches, such as species action plans, are highlighted.  相似文献   

17.
We discuss the notorious problem of order selection in hidden Markov models, that is of selecting an adequate number of states, highlighting typical pitfalls and practical challenges arising when analyzing real data. Extensive simulations are used to demonstrate the reasons that render order selection particularly challenging in practice despite the conceptual simplicity of the task. In particular, we demonstrate why well-established formal procedures for model selection, such as those based on standard information criteria, tend to favor models with numbers of states that are undesirably large in situations where states shall be meaningful entities. We also offer a pragmatic step-by-step approach together with comprehensive advice for how practitioners can implement order selection. Our proposed strategy is illustrated with a real-data case study on muskox movement.Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.  相似文献   

18.
The butterfly fauna at Willow Slough, Yolo County, California has been censused for 32 years as part of a participatory citizen-science project, the Fourth of July Butterfly Count. While the utility of a once-a-year census as a monitoring tool is potentially compromised by lack of standardization in counting protocols and variation in observer skill, at Willow Slough these issues have been minimized.We examined the Willow Slough count data for trends in both faunal diversity and the probability of presence of individual species. During the study, the number of species observed at a visit declined by 39%. Regressions of per-visit species counts against time did not detect a statistically significant decline until year 24. In contrast, Fisher’s α, a statistic designed to reduce sample-size bias, detected the decline as early as year 13. Twelve of the 24 species analyzed showed significant declines in probability of occurrence; a further nine exhibited negative but non-significant trends. Butterflies that overwinter as eggs or larvae were more likely to decline than those that overwinter as pupae or adults. Many species in decline at Willow Slough have also been observed less frequently at nearby sites which are monitored year-round, supporting the value of once-a-year monitoring. Although correlations with climatic data have been identified, they are too weak to account for the observed faunal decline. We suspect broader patterns of land use and habitat continuity are implicated in butterfly declines across the region.We conclude that once-a-year sampling, if properly and rigorously done, is in fact useful as a monitoring tool for butterfly faunas, and that Fisher’s α is well suited to early detection of trends in repeated diversity sampling.  相似文献   

19.
The use of kinetic respiration analysis to determine soil microbial biomass its active part and maximum specific growth rate has recently increased. With this method, the increase in soil respiration rate initiated by application of carbon growth substrate, e.g. glucose, and mineral nutrients is used to estimate parameters describing microbial growth in soil. This study refines the method by developing statistical guidelines for the data analysis and processing. The kinetic respiration analysis assumes that microbial growth is not limited by substrate and energy. That is why it is critically important to identify the time period corresponding to the unlimited growth. In this work, we studied how the unlimited growth phase can be identified in less subjective ways by examining 121 datasets of respiration time series of 44 different soil samples taken from field plots. Deflection of the respiratory curve from the exponential pattern indicates growth limitation. Subjective selection of the part of respiratory curve which fits to the exponential pattern resulted in a 30% bias in specific microbial growth rates. We propose rules that are based on inspecting the patterns in a series of plots of residuals of fitted respiration rate. By comparing those rules with a set of statistical criteria we find that the weighted-coefficient of determination (r2) can be used to objectively constrain the unlimited growth phase in those cases where double-limitation does not occur. Furthermore, we discuss how the uncertainty of estimated microbial parameters is influenced by a) measurement uncertainty, b) biased measurement at the beginning of the experiment, and c) the number and timing of respiration measurements. We recommend checking plots of fits and residuals as well as reporting uncertainty bounds together with the estimated microbial parameters. A free statistical package is provided to easily deal with those aspects.  相似文献   

20.
基于EPIC模型的冬小麦生长模拟参数全局敏感性分析   总被引：12，自引：6，他引：6  
模型参数的敏感性分析是模型本地化、区域化过程中不可或缺的重要环节。局部敏感性分析忽略了参数间的相互耦合作用对模型结果的间接影响,从而导致敏感参数选取具有一定的片面性。该研究以河北衡水冬小麦试验区为研究区,使用全局敏感性分析方法分析EPIC模型在冬小麦产量模拟中的敏感参数。研究表明：收获指数（HI）、生长季峰值点（DLAI）、潜在热量单位（PHU）、最大作物高度（HMX）是影响模型本地化最为关键的参数（总敏感指数＞0.1）;作物的播种日期、收获日期及种植密度是影响区域尺度的作物产量估计最为敏感参数（总敏感指数＞0.1）。研究同时表明全局敏感性分析方法可用于作物生长模型本地化、区域化研究,且优于传统局部敏感性分析方法。  相似文献   

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