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1.
ABSTRACT Although Asian soybean rust occurs in a broad range of environmental conditions, the most explosive and severe epidemics have been reported in seasons with warm temperature and abundant moisture. Associations between weather and epidemics have been reported previously, but attempts to identify the major factors and model these relationships with field data have been limited to specific locations. Using data from 2002-03 to 2004-05 from 34 field experiments at 21 locations in Brazil that represented all major soybean production areas, we attempted to identify weather variables using a 1-month time window following disease detection to develop simple models to predict final disease severity. Four linear models were identified, and these models explained 85 to 93% of variation in disease severity. Temperature variables had lower correlation with disease severity compared with rainfall, and had minimal predictive value for final disease severity. A curvilinear relationship was observed between 1 month of accumulated rainfall and final disease severity, and a quadratic response model using this variable had the lowest prediction error. Linear response models using only rainfall or number of rainy days in the 1-month period tended to overestimate disease for severity <30%. The study highlights the importance of rainfall in influencing soybean rust epidemics in Brazil, as well as its potential use to provide quantitative risk assessments and seasonal forecasts for soybean rust, especially for regions where temperature is not a limiting factor for disease development. 相似文献
2.
A mechanistic model called PLASMO was developed earlier to simulate grapevine downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) and has been applied in several viticultural areas of Italy since 1988 by the collaboration of several research institutions of Firenze. In this study, a new simulation model based on fuzzy logic has been developed for the same structure (biological cycle of P. viticola). This approach allows classical quantitative information to be used together with qualitative information. Vague concepts can also be handled. Agrometeorological data is used, with an hourly time step, starting from budbreak to the end of the growing season. Air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and leaf wetness are required. The simulated processes are the growth of grapevine leaf area and the main phases of the biological cycle of the pathogen: incubation, sporulation, germination, spore survival and inoculation. The main epidemiological outputs are timing of infection events and disease intensity. The performance of the model is evaluated and the mechanistic and fuzzy logic approaches are compared. 相似文献
3.
为明确春小麦品种墨波成株期抗条锈性遗传基础,以墨波与感病品种Taichung29(T29)杂交创建F_(2∶3)分离群体,通过青海西宁市和海东市2个试验点2年田间病圃鉴定,应用植物数量性状主基因+多基因混合遗传模型单个分离世代分析方法对墨波/T29 F2群体的抗性遗传效应进行了分析。结果发现群体单株/家系的病害严重度和反应型在2个试验点均未呈现连续性分布,但是在不同区段内,群体株系间又表现出较明显的连续性变异,初步推测,墨波成株期对小麦条锈病抗性具有由主效基因和微效基因共同控制的特征;遗传分析结果表明,墨波的成株期抗条锈性最优遗传模型均为2对主基因遗传,并受微效基因影响,在海东市试验点用反应型数据分析得到的最优遗传模型为C-6模型2MG-EEAD,即2对等显性主基因遗传,在海东市及西宁市试验点用严重度数据分析得到的最优遗传模型均为C-1模型2MG-ADI,即2对主基因加性-显性-上位性遗传。 相似文献
4.
ABSTRACT The regional dynamics of soybean rust, caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi, in six southeastern states (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia) in 2005 and 2006 were analyzed based on disease records collected as part of U.S. Department of Agriculture's soybean rust surveillance and monitoring program. The season-long rate of temporal disease progress averaged approximately 0.5 new cases day(1) and was higher in nonsentinel soybean (Glycine max) plots than in sentinel soybean plots and kudzu (Pueraria lobata) plots. Despite the early detection of rust on kudzu in January and/or February each year (representing the final phase of the previous year's epidemic), the disease developed slowly during the spring and early summer on this host species and did not enter its exponential phase until late August, more than 1 month after it did so on soybean. On soybean, cases occurred very sporadically before the beginning of July, after which their number increased rapidly. Thus, while kudzu likely provides the initial inoculum for epidemics on soybean, the rapid increase in disease prevalence on kudzu toward the end of the season appears to be driven by inoculum produced on soybean. Of 112 soybean cases with growth stage data, only one occurred during vegetative crop development while approximately 75% occurred at stage R6 (full seed) or higher. The median nearest-neighbor distance of spread among cases was approximately 70 km in both years, with 10% of the distances each being below approximately 30 km and above approximately 200 km. Considering only the epidemic on soybean, the disease expanded at an average rate of 8.8 and 10.4 km day(1) in 2005 and 2006, respectively. These rates are at the lower range of those reported for the annual spread of tobacco blue mold from the Caribbean Basin through the southeastern United States. Regional spread of soybean rust may be limited by the slow disease progress on kudzu during the first half of the year combined with the short period available for disease establishment on soybean during the vulnerable phase of host reproductive development, although low inoculum availability in 2005 and dry conditions in 2006 also may have reduced epidemic potential. 相似文献
5.
Kaique S. Alves Jhonatan P. Barro Mariana Guimarães Emerson M. Del Ponte 《Plant pathology》2021,70(6):1354-1363
Soybean rust (SBR) in Brazil is controlled with fungicides, which have shown variable, sometimes declining, efficacy over time. A Monte Carlo simulation framework was implemented as a decision tool and to estimate the probability for a fungicide programme being profitable depending on efficacy and total cost defined by the user. Probability distributions were fitted to slopes and intercepts of the disease–yield relationship and severity in the untreated plots reported in the literature, as well as historical records of soybean price. Simulations of disease reduction conditioned to predefined control efficacy and total application costs were split into scenarios that combined two categories of severity (high and low) and two attainable yield classes (high and low). These categories were defined based on the median of severity (57.8%) and median of the intercept (yield when severity is zero, 2995.1 kg/ha). Probability matrices were constructed relating fungicide efficacy and costs. A higher frequency of break-even events occurred in scenarios of high disease pressure and higher yield. Yearly simulations, starting with 79.4% efficacy, assuming two rates of decline previously determined for tebuconazole (high decline rate), showed that the programme may remain profitable during the first 5 to 7 years of use, in contrast to cyproconazole (low decline rate), a fungicide that would be profitable during the entire decade. This approach was shown to be useful and can be adapted to other diseases of soybean and other crops, as long as damage functions are available. An interactive web app was developed to perform the simulations accessible at alvesks.shinyapps.io/rusty-profits/. 相似文献
6.
P. F. KABLE M. J. MILLIGAN P. WILSON J. M. SLACK P. J. ELLISON A. WATSON R. S. HANNAH 《EPPO Bulletin》1991,21(3):573-580
Rust (Tranzscheliu discolor) is the most important disease of French prunes in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Infection by this fungus occurs only when leaves are wet. The length of time for which the leaves are wet and the temperature during such periods are major determinants of whether infection occurs and its likely severity. The use by prune growers of new rust management strategies depends on knowledge of infection events and therefore requires ready access to environmental data from orchards. To satisfy this need, microprocessor-based device called a Prune Rust Infection Predictor (PRIP) was developed. The instrument measures air temperature, rainfall, and the presence or absence of free water tree canopies. Measurements are taken at 5-min intervals during wet periods. The instrument calculates whether or not conditions have been suitable for rust infection and potential severity of infection. The system has been operated by advisory staff of NSW Agriculture Fisheries since the 1988/1989 growing season. Potential infection period and related environmental data are collected by personal computers via permanently installed telephone lines from PRIPs located within prune orchards. Prune growers are then advised by recorded telephone messages and given appropriate disease mangement advice. Cumulative potential infection period values are used to provide a prognosis of current-season rust epidemic severity. An expert system is also being developed to assist growers in making decisions on specific rust management options. 相似文献
7.
Forrest W. Nutter Jr Paul D. Esker 《European journal of plant pathology / European Foundation for Plant Pathology》2006,114(2):199-213
The accuracy and precision of disease severity assessment data might be improved if there was a better understanding of how
the laws of psychophysics actually relate to the theory and practice of phytopathometry. In this regard, we utilized a classical
method developed in the field of psychophysics (the method of comparison stimuli) to test Horsfall and Barratt’s claim that
raters cannot accurately discriminate disease severity levels between 25% and 50% because, according to the Weber–Fechner
law, visual acuity is proportional to the logarithm of the intensity of the stimulus. We show for two pathosystems, wheat
leaf rust and grapevine downy mildew, that raters can accurately discriminate disease severity levels between 25% and 50%,
and that although Weber’s law appears to hold true, Fechner’s law does not. Furthermore, based upon our results, the relationship
between actual (true) disease severity (X) and disease severity estimated by raters (Y) is linear, not logarithmic as proposed by Horsfall and Barratt. 相似文献
8.
ABSTRACT Controversy has long existed over whether plant disease epidemics spread with constant or with increasing velocity. We conducted largescale field experiments with wheat stripe rust at Madras and Hermiston, Oregon, where natural stripe rust epidemics were rare, to test these competing models. Data from three location-years were available for analysis. A susceptible winter wheat cultivar was planted in pure stand and also in a 1:4 or 1:1 mixture with a cultivar immune to the stripe rust race utilized in the experiments. Plots were 6.1 m wide and varied from 73 to 171 m in length. A 1.5 by 1.5-m focus was inoculated in either the center (2001) or upwind of the center (2002 and 2003) of each plot. Disease severity was evaluated weekly throughout the epidemics in each plot at the same points along a transect running upwind and downwind from the focus. Velocity of spread was calculated from the severity data and regressed separately on time and on distance from the focus. In all location-years and treatments, and at all levels of disease severity, velocity consistently increased linearly with distance, at an average rate of 0.59 m/week per m, and exponentially with time. Further, across epidemics there was a significant positive relationship between the apparent infection rate, r, and the rate of velocity increase in both space and time. These findings have important implications for plant diseases with a focal or partially focal character, and in particular for the effectiveness of ratereducing disease management strategies at different spatial scales. 相似文献
9.
通过开展小麦条锈病接种试验,在多个关键生育期获取被动式的冠层光谱和主动式的叶片生理观测并开展病情调查。在此基础上,结合优选的光谱特征和生理特征采用偏最小二乘回归方法(PLSR)构建病情严重度反演模型,得到不同生育期精度表现最优的特征组合。结果显示,基于光谱观测的优选光谱特征和基于叶片生理观测的Flav(类黄酮相对含量)、Chl(叶绿素含量)的不同组合在小麦挑旗期、灌浆早期和灌浆期分别具有较佳表现,模型精度达到r~2=0.90,RMSE=0.026。相比单纯采用光谱特征,综合冠层光谱和叶片生理观测能够使模型精度提高21%,表明两种数据的结合有利于提高病情严重度估测精度。上述研究可为小麦病害监测仪器的开发提供新的模式和思路。 相似文献
10.
P. Vijaya Kumar 《European journal of plant pathology / European Foundation for Plant Pathology》2014,140(3):429-440
Weather based prediction models for leaf rust were developed using disease severity and weather data recorded at four locations viz. Ludhiana, Kanpur, Faizabad and Sabour of the All India Wheat and Barley Improvement Project. Weeks 7–9 of the crop growing season at Ludhiana, Faizabad and Sabour and weeks 10–12 at Kanpur were identified as critical periods for relating weather variables to disease. Highly significant correlation coefficients were found between disease severity and a greater number of weather variables in these critical 3-week periods than at other times. The correlation coefficients were greatest for the Humid Thermal Ratio (HTR), Maximum Temperature (MXT) and Special Humid Thermal Ratio (SHTR), and these three weather variables were selected as predictor variables. Linear regressions with these predictor variables (individually) during the critical periods, and a multiple regression with MXT and relative humidity (RH), serve as four disease prediction models, with sufficient lead-time to take control measures. Validation of these prediction models with independent disease severity data showed that the regression equation with MXT (Model-1) was the best among the prediction models, with four out of six simulations matching observed disease severity classes and also having lowest residual sum of squares (SSE) value of 2727. Models 4 (multiple regression), 2 (HTR) and 3 (SHTR) with SSE values of 2881, 3092 and 3732, respectively are in order of decreasing accuracy of prediction. The model using MXT can be used to predict the disease severity in the Indo-Gangetic Plains and provide the basis for efficient disease control. 相似文献
11.
ABSTRACT Soybean rust, Phakopsora pachyrhizi, has been considered a threat to the production of the U.S. soybean, Glycine max. During the past decade, this disease gradually spread to Africa, South America, and recently to the United States. Previous soybean rust risk assessments with an assumption of availability of spores early in a season showed that weather conditions (dew and temperature) during a growing season, in general, are suitable for disease development in U.S. soybean-growing regions. Predicting the time of rust appearance in a field is critical to determining the destructive potential of rusts, including soybean rust. In this study, comparative epidemiology was used to assess likely rust incipient time in four locations within the U.S. Soybean Belt from south to north: Baton Rouge, LA; Charlotte, NC; Indianapolis, IN; and Minneapolis, MN. Temperature effects on the infection cycle of five rusts occurring in the Midwest were evaluated using a general disease model. The likely incipient times were examined with the modeling results. Among the rusts studied, early-appearing rusts had suitable conditions for development earlier in a season. However, a lag period of several weeks to more than 3 months was found from the time when conditions are suitable for a rust to develop or when hosts are available to the time when the rust was detected in fields. Length of the lag period differed among the rust species examined. If nature of long-distance dispersal is not significantly different among the rusts, implications of our study to the expected seasonal soybean rust incipience in fields lead to two possible scenarios: (i) average appearance time of soybean rust across the Soybean Belt should be somewhere between appearance times of common corn rust and southern corn rust, and (ii) with late appearance of the disease, late-planted soybean in the south has greater risk. 相似文献
12.
Effects of Simplicillium lanosoniveum on Phakopsora pachyrhizi, the soybean rust pathogen, and its use as a biological control agent 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The fungus Simplicillium lanosoniveum was isolated from soybean leaves infected with Phakopsora pachyrhizi, the soybean rust pathogen, in Louisiana and Florida. The fungus did not grow or become established on leaf surfaces until uredinia erupted, but when soybean rust signs and symptoms were evident, S. lanosoniveum colonized leaves within 3 days and sporulated within 4 days. Development of new uredinia was suppressed by about fourfold when S. lanosoniveum colonized uredinia. In the presence of S. lanosoniveum, uredinia became increasingly red-brown, and urediniospores turned brown and germinated at very low rates. Assays using quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction revealed that the fungus colonized leaf surfaces when plants were infected with P. pachyrhizi, either in a latent stage of infection or when symptoms were present. However, when plants were inoculated before infection, there was no increase of DNA of S. lanosoniveum, suggesting that the pathogen must be present in order for the antagonist to become established on soybean leaf surfaces. We documented significantly lower amounts of DNA of P. pachyrhizi and lower disease severity when soybean leaves were colonized with S. lanosoniveum. These studies documented the mycophilic and disease-suppressive nature of S. lanosoniveum. 相似文献
13.
田间飞翔蚜虫传染大豆花叶病毒(SMV)的模型预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文提出一个飞翔蚜虫非持久性传染植物病毒的侵染概率模型。设置绿色诱盘捕捉着落大豆株冠的蚜虫估计飞翔翅蚜日平均着落株冠次数。采用诱饵植株测定田间一定传染性病株率和飞翔蚜量条件SMV的日侵染率,对迁飞着落蚜虫群体传染SMV的效率进行估计,实现模型对SMV日侵染率的预测。结合显症率预测,对两年三个区的SMV病株率发展动态用模型拟合回测,平均准确度为90.18%,对两年非建模的两区病株率发展动态拟合预测,平均准确度为88.41%。 相似文献
14.
Studies were conducted on the effect of pruning time, host age, urediniospore release and weather parameters on the incidence and intensity of mulberry leaf rust (Peridiopsora mori). Rust severity significantly increased with increasing shoot age, irrespective of pruning time. Maximum disease severity was observed in plants pruned during the third week of October, and minimum severity in plants pruned during last week of November. Apparent infection rate was higher in younger shoots. Infection rate was higher in plants pruned during the last week of November. Urediniospore release was influenced by prevailing climatic conditions. A higher rate of spore release was noticed during sunny days. Maximum spore release was found between 12.00 h and 14.00 h. Spore release was positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with relative humidity. Rust severity (34.97%) was higher in January and least (1.03%) during May. Rust severity was negatively correlated with both temperature and rainfall. An exponential model was developed for the prediction of rust severity which was accurate up to 96.60%. 相似文献
15.
Harun Muthuri Murithi Mercy Namara Mussa Tamba Phinehas Tukamuhabwa George Mahuku H. Peter van Esse Bart P. H. J. Thomma Matthieu H. A. J. Joosten 《Plant pathology》2021,70(4):841-852
Soybean rust, caused by the biotrophic fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, is the most important foliar disease of soybean (Glycine max) worldwide. Deployment of resistant soybean cultivars is the best option for managing this disease. Genes conferring resistance to P. pachyrhizi have been identified, but pathotypes of the rust fungus overcoming these resistance genes have also been found. To identify novel resistance genes, soybean genotypes from both local and international sources were screened at multiple locations in Tanzania and Uganda in 2016 and 2017. The results from this screening revealed that infection types, disease severities, and sporulation levels varied among the genotypes and locations. The majority of the genotypes had tan-coloured (TAN) lesions and developed moderate sporulation, implying susceptibility, while only seven of the 71 lines had reddish-brown (RB) lesions and showed low disease severities in all of the screening environments. We identified seven genotypes that were the most resistant to rust in the most locations over the two years. These genotypes will be useful for further studies and, ultimately, for rust management, as they show broad resistance to various pathotypes of the rust fungus. 相似文献
16.
ABSTRACT The velocity of expansion of focal epidemics was studied using an updated version of the simulation model EPIMUL, with model parameters relevant to wheat stripe rust. The modified power law, the exponential model, and Lambert's general model were fit to primary disease gradient data from an artificially initiated field epidemic of stripe rust and employed to describe dispersal in simulations. The exponential model, which fit the field data poorly (R (2) = 0.728 to 0.776), yielded an epidemic that expanded as a traveling wave (i.e., at a constant velocity), after an initial buildup period. Both the modified power law and the Lambert model fit the field data well (R(2) = 0.962 to 0.988) and resulted in dispersive epidemic waves (velocities increased over time for the entire course of the epidemic). The field epidemic also expanded as a dispersive wave. Using parameters based on the field epidemic and modified power law dispersal as a baseline, life cycle components of the pathogen (lesion growth rate, latent period, infectious period, and multiplication rate) and dispersal gradient steepness were varied within biologically reasonable ranges for this disease to test their effect on dispersive wave epidemics. All components but the infectious period had a strong influence on epidemic velocity, but none changed the general pattern of velocity increasing over time. 相似文献
17.
Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance. 相似文献
18.
Modelling and forecasting epidemics of apple powdery mildew (Podosphaera leucotricha) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Xu 《Plant pathology》1999,48(4):462-471
A model developed to simulate epidemics of powdery mildew on vegetative shoots of apple generates two types of output. Firstly, it forecasts disease severity (percentage of host tissue infected) by incorporating effects on disease development of the amount of healthy susceptible tissue and current infectious (sporulating) disease, the level of initial inoculum (overwintered 'primary' mildew) and weather conditions. The effects of weather variables are considered on only two aspects of the fungal life cycle: initial spore germination and the subsequent development during the incubation period. Secondly, the model generates indices of the relative favourability of weather conditions on disease development by incorporating effects of weather on conidial production/dispersal and germination. On each day, forecasts of the (relative) severity of new infection and total current infectious disease are given for both types of output. The model was evaluated by comparing its predictions with the mildew epidemics observed in two unsprayed orchards over four years. In all the years, the temporal patterns of the predicted and the observed disease were generally similar. The pattern of the disease severity forecasts was marginally closer to the observed than that derived from two weather indices. Potential roles of the model in practical management of apple powdery mildew are discussed. 相似文献
19.
植物病原菌寄生适合度测定方法的研究（以小麦条锈菌为例） 总被引：15，自引：6，他引：9
在多品种-多小种系统的群体动态研究中,各小种在各品种上的相对寄生适合度的测定是一个关键问题。根据推理论证和模拟试验,作者认为:采用相对r值作为寄生适合度的量化指标是合理可行的。相对r值可以采用分小种方块圃法或根据田间病情进行直接测定,也可采用分小种短行圃法进行间接测定,即根据流行组分观察数据或反应型、普遍率、严重度和潜育期的记载,通过模型模拟推算出相对寄生适合度。间接测定较易操作,但它要求有一个相当可靠的流行模拟模型,并在模拟中选用适当的环境条件。根据反应型、普遍率、严重度和潜育期推算和模拟寄生适合度,是较最简便的间接测定方法,此法可利用品种抗病性分小种鉴定的数据来推算寄生适合度。 相似文献
20.
ABSTRACT Temperature is a critical factor in plant disease development. As part of a research program to determine how specific environmental variables affect soybean rust, we determined temperature effects on urediniospore germination and germ tube growth of four isolates of Phakopsora pachyrhizi, one each from Brazil, Hawaii, Taiwan, and Zimbabwe, and an isolate of P. meibomiae from Puerto Rico, collected over a 25-year period. Also compared were the effects of temperature during a night dew period on initiation of disease by the P. pachyrhizi isolates. All variables were fit to a nonlinear beta function with temperature as the independent variable. Minimum, maximum, and optimum temperatures, along with shape parameters of the beta function for each variable, were statistically analyzed. All Phakopsora isolates behaved similarly as to how temperature affected urediniospore germination, germ tube growth, and initiation of disease. The results suggest that P. pachyrhizi has changed little in the past few decades with respect to how it responds to temperature and that previously collected research data continues to be valid, simplifying the development of soybean rust disease models. 相似文献