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1.
Forest fires are an important environmental concern worldwide, affecting the soil, forests and human lives. During the process of burning, soil nutrients are depleted and the soil is subsequently more vulnerable to erosion. Nowadays it is necessary to identify the factors influencing the occurrence of fire and fire hazard areas, in order to minimize the frequency of fire and avert damage. Logistic regression was used to study the forest fire risk and identify the most influential factors in the occurrence of forest fires. Climatic variables (temperature and annual precipitation), human factors (distance from streams and farmland) and physiography (land slope and elevation) were considered and their correlation with the occurrence of fires investigated. Results of model validation and sensitivity of various areas to fire were examined with the ROC coefficient and Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The estimated coefficients for the independent variables indicated that the probability of occurrence of fire is negatively related to land slope, site elevation and distance from farmlands, but is positively related to amount of annual precipitation. 相似文献
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野火是植物生态系统中最严重的自然灾害。野火的重要组成部分——雷击火是一种复杂且难以控制的自然现象，给人类和生态环境造成了巨大损失，人类活动已在全球范围内显著影响了雷击火的发生与分布。由于雷电的随机性，其观测实验和理论研究非常困难。因此雷击火成为全球变化及其环境影响研究的关键议题之一，各国对雷击火的预测研究给予了高度重视。结合相关研究文献发现，在雷击火形成因素、雷电预测预报模型、人工干预3个方面形成了较为系统的研究结果。文中在基于对其评述的基础上，总结雷击火的研究现状，展望未来的研究方向，以期为深入研究雷击火中能量来源——雷电和更高效地建立预测模型提供启发和参考。 相似文献
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Characterization of forest fires in Catalonia (north-east Spain) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The present study analyses the temporal variation in the distribution of the number of fires, area burned and fire sizes in
Catalonia using fire data from 1942 to 2002. The study shows variations in the distribution of fire size over recent decades,
with a significant increase in the number of very large fires. The study also analyses relationships between characteristics
of the forest (altitude, slope, aspect, living fuels and species composition) and the probability of the fire occurrence.
The analysis is based on the overlay of forest cover data and perimeters of forest fires during the period (1986–2002). Of
the analysed variables, altitude affects most the probability of fire occurrence, with higher proportions of burned forest
area at lower altitudes. Stand’s vertical structure is also relevant, with lower proportions of burned area in stands with
mature tree cover without understory. The study helps to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of forest and fire management
policies, especially those related to forest and fuel management at the landscape level. 相似文献
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【目的】城镇森林交界域火灾频繁发生,使民生经济遭受严重危害。使用随机森林模型对省域内的城镇森林交界域火灾风险与影响因子的关系进行空间建模,探究随机森林模型在拟合、解释交界域火灾风险方面的优势,并与森林火灾风险的影响因子对比,为进一步评估城镇森林交界域火险提供依据。【方法】研究基于安徽省2002—2011年火灾历史数据,采用气候、地理环境、人类活动、社会经济等方面的9个因子作为自变量,月均火灾密度作为因变量。使用特征选择方法得到模型内不同自变量的贡献度、统计特征以及内部模型的平均表现,选择出进入最后模型中的自变量;使用随机森林模型对城镇森林交界域火灾风险进行解释,分析影响城镇森林交界域火灾风险和森林火灾风险的重要因子。【结果】关键自变量对城镇森林交界域火灾风险的影响程度大小排序依次为:道路线密度、铁路线密度、月均最高温度、归一化植被指数、人口密度以及海拔;对森林火灾风险则为:月均最高温度、归一化植被指数、道路线密度、铁路线密度、人口密度以及海拔;经过训练与计算发现随机森林模型在5个子模型的训练集与测试集的表现基本一致,拟合值与实际值的简单相关系数均达0.90以上,可见随机森林模型对交界域火灾风险和森林火灾风险表现出显著的解释能力;此外,随机森林模型在总体数据集上进行了拟合,得到城镇森林交界域火灾风险的拟合值与实际值的相关性为0.997,森林火灾风险的拟合值与实际值的相关性为0.996,表明了随机森林模型具备极强的火灾风险拟合性能。【结论】影响城镇森林交界域火灾发生的最重要自变量是道路和铁路线密度,而对森林火灾则是月均最高温度与归一化植被指数,可见城镇森林交界域火灾发生人类活动因素密切相关。随机森林算法对城镇森林交界域火灾风险和森林火灾风险都能表现出稳健的和非常准确的拟合能力,是一个非常有用的工具。 相似文献
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人为纵火、林区吸烟、施工用火、闪电、林区建筑物以及不合理的城市森林规划等是城市森林火灾发生的重要隐患,常常导致城市森林火灾的发生,给城市居民的生命和财产造成了巨大的损失。加强对城市森林火灾发生原因的研究,合理规划城市森林布局和结构,加强对火灾隐患的管理,减少城市森林火灾的发生,是维护城市生态可持续发展的必然要求。
相似文献
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文章探讨了槐树文化与中国科举制度之间丰富的文化内涵。槐树（Sophora japonica Linn）．又称国槐,在我国分布广泛,它枝干茂密,淳朴厚重,是人们喜爱的一个乡土树种。 相似文献
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José Ramón González Antoni Trasobares Marc Palahí Timo Pukkala 《Annals of Forest Science》2007,64(7):733-742
The study developed models for predicting the post-fire tree survival in Catalonia. The models are appropriate for forest planning purposes. Two types of models were developed: a stand-level model to predict the degree of damage caused by a forest fire, and tree-level models to predict the probability of a tree to survive a forest fire. The models were based on forest inventory and fire data. The inventory data on forest stands were obtained from the second (1989–1990) and third (2000–2001) Spanish national forest inventories, and the fire data consisted of the perimeters of forest fires larger than 20 ha that occurred in Catalonia between the 2nd and 3rd measurement of the inventory plots. The models were based on easily measurable forest characteristics, and they permit the forest manager to predict the effect of stand structure and species composition on the expected damage. According to the stand level fire damage model, the relative damage decreases when the stand basal area or mean tree diameter increases. Conversely, the relative stand damage increases when there is a large variation in tree size, when the stand is located on a steep slope, and when it is dominated by pine. According to the tree level survival models, trees in stands with a high basal area, a large mean tree size and a small variability in tree diameters have a high survival probability. Large trees in dominant positions have the highest probability of surviving a fire. Another result of the study is the exceptionally good post-fire survival ability of Pinus pinea and Quercus suber. 相似文献
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Lara Vilar del Hoyo M. Pilar Martín Isabel F. Javier Martínez Vega 《European Journal of Forest Research》2011,130(6):983-996
About 90% of the wildland fires occurred in Southern Europe are caused by human activities. In spite of these figures, the
human factor hardly ever appears in the definition of operational fire risk systems due to the difficulty of characterising
it. This paper describes two spatially explicit models that predict the probability of fire occurrence due to human causes
for their integration into a comprehensive fire risk–mapping methodology. A logistic regression technique at 1 × 1 km grid
resolution has been used to obtain these models in the region of Madrid, a highly populated area in the centre of Spain. Socio-economic
data were used as predictive variables to spatially represent anthropogenic factors related to fire risk. Historical fire
occurrence from 2000 to 2005 was used as the response variable. In order to analyse the effects of the spatial accuracy of
the response variable on the model performance (significant variables and classification accuracy), two different models were
defined. In the first model, fire ignition points (x, y coordinates) were used as response variable. This model was compared with another one (Kernel model) where the response variable
was the density of ignition points and was obtained through a kernel density interpolation technique from fire ignition points
randomly located within a 10 × 10 km grid, which is the standard spatial reference unit established by the Spanish Ministry
of Environment, Rural and Marine Affairs to report fire location in the national official statistics. Validation of both models
was accomplished using an independent set of fire ignition points (years 2006–2007). For the validation, we used the area
under the curve (AUC) obtained by a receiver-operating system. The first model performs slightly better with a value of AUC
of 0.70 as opposed to 0.67 for the Kernel model. Wildland–urban interface was selected by both models with high relative importance. 相似文献
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森林火灾直接影响森林生态环境质量,严重威胁人类生命财产安全,还会造成病虫害频发、群落退化等次生灾害。由于综合考虑了各类影响林火发生的因子,林火发生预报模型是目前预报结果最为准确的林火预报预测方法。文中从林火驱动因子、林火发生预报模型构建、模型检验方法等3个方面综述国内外林火发生预报模型的发展现状和研究成果,讨论各类林火发生预报模型的优缺点,梳理目前研究中存在的问题,对其研究前景进行展望,并结合我国实际情况提出开展更大空间尺度林火预报的研究建议,以期为相关研究和林火管理工作提供参考。 相似文献
11.
Analysis of the seasonal characteristics of forest fires in South Korea using the multivariate analysis approach 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
For efficient forest fire management, special precautions are required in dry and strong-wind seasons vulnerable to severe
forest fires. To extract the seasonal characteristics of forest fires in South Korea, the statistics over the past 16 years,
1991 through 2005, were investigated. The daily records of the number of fire occurrences, the total area burned and the average
burned area per occurrence were examined to identify the seasonal patterns of forest fires using cluster analysis and principal
component analysis; the risk of daily fires was also assessed using the ordered logit model. As a result, the fire patterns
were classified into five clusters and a general danger index for forest fires was derived from the first principal component,
showing relatively large-scaled fire regimes in spring, and frequent small-scaled fire regimes in autumn and winter. In connection
with the ordered logit model, the probability for the five ranks of forest fire risk was calculated and the threshold for
high-risk fires was detected. As an implementation of the results above, the proper forest fire precautionary period in South
Korea was estimated, and consequently October 21 through May 17 was recognized as a dry season at a high risk of forest fires.
This period began 10 days earlier in autumn and extended into midwinter (late December and January) as opposed to the existing
precautionary period, indicating the need of more cautious forest fire management earlier in autumn and continuing through
midwinter. 相似文献
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Since the mid-20th century, countries in Europe have been organized to record information on forest fires and their effects. These initiatives were established at regional and often national level, without major interaction among countries in Europe. With the expansion of the European Union in the 1980s, when Mediterranean countries were incorporated in the EU, the issue of forest fires increased in relevance, mainly due to the damages caused by fires in the natural areas of these countries. Initial EU policies related to fires date back to the 1980s, in which the European Union elaborated the first voluntary Regulations to support the development of forest fire information systems in the countries. Although EU environmental policies promoted the development of national systems, the first steps towards the development of a European fire information system did not take place until the late 1990s. Such a system was initially discussed between the European Commission services and the Member States in 1998. Although the development of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) started at this time, its official establishment came only in place with the publication of the Forest Focus regulation in 2003, which included within its implementation rules the reference to EFFIS. Since its establishment, EFFIS has influenced the further development of EU environmental policies on forest protection. It has further shaped the link of these to other forest and regional policies, which, although not fire-specific, did address the issue of damages caused by fires to the European environment and its population. The present article describes the steps in the development of the EU fire policies and EFFIS. It provides a synoptic view of how fires are included in different sectoral policies of the EU, and suggests ways in which the continuation of forest fire monitoring and management may be included in future European policies. 相似文献
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Forest fires caused by natural forces or human activities are one of the major natural risks in Northeast China. The incidence and spatial distribution of these fires vary over time and across the forested areas in Jilin Province, Northeast China. In this study, the incidence and distribution of 6519 forest fires from 1969 to 2013 in the province were investigated. The results indicated that the spatiotemporal distribution of the burnt forest area and the fire frequency varied significantly by month, year, and region. Fire occurrence displayed notable temporal patterns in the years after forest fire prevention measures were strictly implemented by the provincial government. Generally, forest fires in Jilin occurred in months when stubble and straw were burned and human activities were intense during traditional Chinese festivals. Baishan city, Jilin city, and Yanbian were defined as fire-prone regions for their high fire frequency. Yanbian had the highest frequency, and the fires tended to be large with the highest burned area per fire. Yanbian should thus be listed as the key target area by the fire management agency in Jilin Province for better fire prevention. 相似文献
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The Santa Fe municipal watershed provides up to 40% of the city's water and is at high risk of a stand-replacing fire that could threaten the water resource and cause severe ecological damage. Restoration and crown fire hazard reduction in the ponderosa pine (PP) forest is in progress, but the historic role of crown fire in the mixed-conifer/aspen (MC) and spruce-dominated forests is unknown but necessary to guide management here and in similar forests throughout the southwestern United States. The objective of our study was to use dendroecological techniques to reconstruct fire history and fire–climate relationships along an elevation, forest type, and fire regime gradient in the Santa Fe River watershed and provide historical ecological data to guide management. We combined systematic (gridded) sampling of forest age structure with targeted sampling of fire scars, tree-ring growth changes/injuries, and death dates to reconstruct fire occurrence and severity in the 7016 ha study area (elevation 2330–3650 m). Fire scars from 141 trees (at 41 plots) and age structure of 438 trees (from 26 transects) were used to reconstruct 110 unique fire years (1296–2008). The majority (79.0%) of fires burned during the late spring/early summer. Widespread fires that scarred more than 25% of the recording trees were more frequent in PP (mean fire interval (MFI)25% = 20.8 years) compared to the MC forest (31.6 years). Only 24% of the fires in PP were recorded in the MC forest, but these accounted for a large percent of all MC fires (69%). Fire occurrence was associated with anomalously wet (and usually El Niño) years preceding anomalously dry (and usually La Niña) years both in PP and in the MC forest. Fire in the MC occurred during more severe drought (mean summer Palmer Drought Severity Index; PDSI = −2.59), compared to the adjacent PP forest (PDSI = −1.03). The last fire in the spruce forest (1685) was largely stand-replacing (1200 ha, 93% of sampled area), recorded as fire scars at 68% of plots throughout the MC and PP forests, and burned during a severe, regional drought (PDSI = −6.92). The drought–fire relationship reconstructed in all forest types suggests that if droughts become more frequent and severe, as predicted, the probability of large, severe fire occurrence will increase. 相似文献
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《林业研究》2019,(6)
Forest fires are influenced by several factors,including forest location, species type, age and density,date of fire occurrence, temperatures, and wind speeds,among others. This study investigates the quantitative effects of these factors on the degree of forest fire disaster using nonparametric statistical methods to provide a theoretical basis and data support for forest fire management.Data on forest fire damage from 1969 to 2013 was analyzed. The results indicate that different forest locations and types, fire occurrence dates, temperatures, and wind speeds were statistically significant. The eastern regions of the study area experienced the highest fire occurrence,accounting for 85.0% of the total number of fires as well as the largest average forested area burned. April, May, and October had more frequent fires than other months,accounting for 78.9%, while September had the most extensive forested area burned(63.08 ha) and burnt area(106.34 ha). Hardwood mixed forest and oak forest had more frequent fires, accounting for 31.9% and 26.0%,respectively. Hardwood-conifer mixed forest had the most forested area burned(50.18 ha) and burnt area(65.09 ha).Temperatures, wind speeds, and their interaction had significant impacts on forested area burned and area burnt. 相似文献
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我国大兴安岭呼中林区雷击火发生火环境研究 总被引：19，自引：2，他引：19
雷击火作为天然火源是一种难以控制的自然现象 ,其形成机理极为复杂。我国大兴安岭林区是雷击火主要发生区 ,对雷击火的研究表明特殊可燃物、干雷暴的天气和较高的地形构成了雷击火发生的火环境。长期干旱 ,可燃物失水严重 ,森林中积累丰富的可燃物 ,雷暴发生后干燥的植被容易引火燃烧 ,起火之后 ,遇上盛行的大风将使火灾迅速蔓延。雷暴 ,特别是干雷暴出现时 ,遇到降水少、地面温度增加 ,相对湿度降低 ,可燃物干燥的情况 ,就很容易引起火灾。森林火灾多发地区 ,雷击火常常也多。大兴安岭纬度越高 ,雷击火越多 ,5 1°N以北海拔 80 0m以上山脉的腹部或山顶的落叶松 -偃松林、樟子松 -偃松林林区为该林区雷击火发生最集中区域。一次干雷暴天气过程 ,可以同时引起多起雷击火 ,它们之间的距离最远可达 1 5 0km。雷击火多发生在 6— 8月 ,雷击火的发生时段主要集中在下午的 1 4时到 1 7时。雷电作为一个随机干扰因子引发森林火灾 ,使得雷击火的预防与扑救变得更加困难。 相似文献
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长沙县森林火灾发生规律研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据长沙县"十一五"期间森林火灾发生的统计数据,从地域、时间、火因和肇事者等分析森林火灾发生的规律.结果表明:森林火灾发生存在明显的地域差异,据此可分为重灾区、较重灾区、较轻灾区、轻灾区和无灾区;森林火灾主要发生在防火期内,其中春防期明显多于冬防期,2月或3月为高发期,一天中的起火高峰在10:00—18:00;森林火灾发生主要由人为因素引起,森林火灾的肇事者老人最多,占30.6%。通过对森林火灾发生规律的调查分析,为长沙县"十二五"期间的森林火灾防控对策提出了建议。 相似文献
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武夷山森林火灾发生规律的研究 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
根据1997~2007年武夷山市森林火灾统计数据,从年、月、日3个时间尺度分析了森林火灾发生的规律。结果表明,武夷山市森林火灾年际间波动较大,具有4年周期性;3月份为森林火灾高发月,其次为7~8月份;一天当中,中午为森林火灾高发时段。引起森林火灾的火源主要是由农业生产用火(35%)和非生产性用火(占33%,主要为吸烟和扫墓)引起的。 相似文献
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在“被动扑救森林火灾”向“以预防为主”的森林火灾预防机制转变过程中,通过对寅街镇20年来森林火灾发生规律、起火原因、地域和时间分布进行分析,指出93％属人为野外用火引起,森林火灾造成的经济损失主要为非生产性用火中故意纵火、外区烧入、上坟等造成的,野外火源是导致寅街镇森林火灾的主要原因。提出落实责任,加强宣传,完善巡查力度,实施计划烧除,抓好森林火灾保险,严格火源管理等寅街镇森林火灾预防对策及加强野外火源管理的_几点建议。 相似文献